it's the last trading day of europe. >> hold back the tears. it's the last full day's trading of 2015. today sums up the top trends perfectly. oil is down and stocks are down. let's dig deep down. ♪ ♪ betty: we will take you from new york to london in the next half hour. kick us off on more on how stocks traded today. >> it was the tail wagging the dog, the tail was oil wagging the stock market. the dax is down by more than 1% in only two stocks rose and one of them barely. it was a down day for the german index.

the dax up from the other indexes and global stocks as well. we've got switzerland off tomorrow if italy is already closing off. they will get ready to celebrate the new year and they are down by 8/10 of 1%. as you said oil is down and oil and gas are the worst performer. this is what has dragged it all lower, the back of brent tumbling to 8%. it will pull down the entire industry and the entire stocks 600 and. betty: one t bank on this stock exchange has some big news. >> this is a company that is the third biggest wealth manager and switzerland. after ubs and credit suisse did

it, julius baer settles across the atlantic and settles with the united states and has to do with potentially helping u.s. citizens evade taxes. they are settling to the turn of $500 million, more than half $1 billion. why is the stock climbing higher today? it was relief at last. after four years of negotiations, they have managed to seal off this deal with the u.s. justice department. betty: we will have more on this story with our reprint a moment. let's check in with first word news. courtney: in turkey, prosecutors have filed a possible new year's eve suicide attack. police arrested two suspected islamic militants in a house and seized to suicide vests that contain bombs. russia wants president assad to stay in power. the u.s. still opposed to

russia's insistence that he be allowed to compete in the presidential election. that opposition is weakening. the u.s. is counting on the united nations and buy votes from overseas syrians to ensure the election is fair. the north korea top liaison to the south's dead compensating getting plans for improved relations. the north government run media announced that he was killed in a car accident. few details were the raising suspicions in the south. the south korean government officials are not commenting. iraq he troops and militia are now clearing mines left behind when islamic state retreated from ramadi. the city was recaptured monday and there are still some islamic state fighters and a u.s. spokesperson says they have launched a few attacks. global news 24 hours a day powered by air 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. betty: thank you.

much more ahead, the fed of the trigger on a rate hike but what does it mean for the powerhouse pranks? we will have a bloomberg intelligence report on the key banks to watch next year. ♪

>> welcome back live from the beautiful city of london. live in new york, this is the european close. betty: let's get a quick check on stock moves in the u.s. particularly from the nasdaq. >> one stock moving nicely

higher this morning is fairchild semi conductor it to come but he said they had received an unsolicited bid for an entity they called party g. bloomberg broke the nose that it is china resources, the same entity that was behind the to $46 billion bid received earlier this month to compete with the opposing bid accepted by fairchild a november 5 this new bid has meaningful deficiencies. there is a strong probability that on semi conductor will raise its bid for fairchild. this has been good for fairchild stock, on pace for its second year up in a row after much volatility in 2015. betty: thank you. authorities are stepping up corporations avoiding taxes. apple is the biggest company in the world and will be paying 340 $8 million to settle an italian tax claim.

jesse drucker specializes in tax issues and joins us now. tell me what the settlement is about. >> apple and some other multinationals of gotten in trouble with authorities in different countries over the way they move profits out of the countries where they do business and into subsidiaries in places like ireland and the cayman islands. apple got in trouble for europe commission where it said it's a deal with ireland represented a series of illegal tax breaks. we don't really know the details of what has happened in italy but it's probably in the same vein. the company was putting too much profit into its low tax subsidiaries off to. its irish a name on my. there was a hearing a couple of years ago where they found that that subsidiary was doing taxes know are in the world.

it has taken credit for tens of billions of dollars of profit. betty: they are settling but they are admitting no wrongdoing? >> we don't really know because we are relying on italian press reports. betty: apple is supposedly one of the worst offenders? >> i do know about worst offenders but they are among the more aggressive companies around the world along with google and starbucks and amazon putting big chance profits into subsidiaries where they have little or no employees and little or no activity and getting their profits out of places like the u.s. and u.k. in japan where they are in their profits. betty: they have billions part overseas? >> tens of billions like $60 billion. they probably pay close to no income taxes on that. betty: will this have a ripple effect on other companies?

>> i think we are already seeing of the european commission with starbucks, with fiat, with apple and we are seeing companies around the world -- countries around the world whether it's italy and france are getting more aggressive with these companies. betty: it sounds that way, thank you so much. let's move onto another major tax settlement, this time between julius baer and the u.s. government. >> shares of julius baer are higher today after the bank agreed to pay a $547 million settlement. that is marking the end of a four-year investigation. talk us through the reason the shares are up. half a billion is a lot to settle for. they must be feeling the relief that this investigation is over.

>> i think relief is the right word that we have been waiting more than four years for julius baer to come to a conclusion with the u.s. authorities over inquiry into how the bank helped americans avoid taxes. putting out a press release saying we have earmarked five or $47 million to a fine is not exactly a positive symptoms of news but when you have a chief executive officer who has said he hopes he will resolve this investigation by the end of the year for the last three years, there is relief in the market that we have visibility. >> julius baer follows big settlements coming from ubs and credit suisse. what about the rest of the industry? how damaging is this? there are some some 70 private banks that have been up to this and investigated. >> that's right, there is a blood banks in scotland that has

been under in criminal investigation over the last few years -- in switzerland that has been put under criminal investigation over the last years. there is a separate, much larger group of banks, more than 70 now, that have voluntarily come forward and applied for nonprosecution agreements paying a combined $1 billion in fines in the process that out of an industry of around 275 banks, more than 100 have applied for a settlement with the u.s. justice department or have paid a settlement. this has cast a huge cloud over the industry in terms of the cost of taking part in dealing with these investigations and also the time and resources spent on doing so. there is relief everywhere but there are still some banks yet to settle. when the settlement finalized the first quarter of next year should give the way for the likes of the zurich regional

bank and others. to hopefully come to a resolution and put the matters behind them. >> talk to us about the clouds what is the fallout? are there more heads to roll with individuals being investigated? >> a lot of banks have set aside money orb defines and it into 1315 accounts. from a corporate perspective perhaps there is a sense of relief. most of these nonprosecution agreements, but justice department of the u.s. has requested that banks continue to cooperate. that means providing as much information as possible about the u.s. cross-border businesses , about the private bankers that dealt directly with u.s. taxpayers and help them hide money offshore and crucially

about any third-party asset manager or company that helped set up offshore structures or lawyers that helps facilitate tax evasions. the u.s. has a huge number of names of swiss and other entities that have helped americans hide money and sterling. >> it's been great to have you on, thank you. coming up, the battles of the sharks, stay with us. ♪

>> welcome back to bloomberg markets. it's a relatively quiet day in new york. it's the european betty: i love how you can see what's going on in new york. this is really global. it's time for the bloomberg business flash. a look at the biggest business stories right now. the tech world is fired up about virtual reality that there is a real problem. few people on the hardware needed to the system. according to one estimate, there are only 13 million computers around the world have the graphic capability to run virtual reality. that is less than 1% of the entire total. the biotech company formerly run by martin shi martin

shkreli has declared bankruptcy. he was fired after the arrest. that is your bloomberg business flash update. this week has been light on europe and economic numbers, the first week of 2016 will see a handful of releases. on monday, we will get a slew of manufacturing data across europe. on tuesday, the estimate of euro area inflation and thursday figures on unemployment and retail sales. all this data may help guide people on what mario draghi will do next year. >> you are right because the key question -- what is your next move? more quantitative easing or not? joining us now is a former ecb economist but now a director of european economics at citigroup. thank you for joining us. we got a smattering of data

today and resolve money supply pick up a little bit it what is mario draghi doing? will he do more stimulus? >> in a sense, the u.s. moves help a little bit. the uncertainty is gone now we know that u.s. is doing what it's doing and the fed is doing what it's doing. the u.s. also demonstrated at least for the dells and the ecb that if you act aggressively early on eventually come you get to the more you can normalize policy. mario draghi has another argument to do more. on the other hand, the hawks argue that now that the fed has moved the euro will probably weaken little bit more or not go up and therefore the ecb does not need to do much more. it's balanced and depends on the next round forecast from the ecb

staff in march and june. in march, we get that she 18 forecast which should be in line with they want to be but by june, they will have to revise down again on the pressure will rise to do more and we eventually think they would help the we think they will cut the deposit rate further and maybe extend the asset purchases again. >> that brings us back to reality with more stimulus from the ecb. what does that mean for government yields in europe? can it go much lower? >> it probably can but the real music plays in the periphery. compression is still possible but we have plenty of political risks out there. we have a new portuguese government and we don't know what they will do and spain has uncertainty. in the short-term that will keep spreads relatively high. once these things are sorted out

and separated from the headlines, i think there is the potential for some compression of the spreads. the german yields depend on the asian expectations and there are certain limits. betty: if you think the ecb will be more aggressive than some are giving it credit for, does that mean the divergence between the fed and the ecb might even supplies on being wider? >> indeed, it's not just diverging with the ecb but with any central bank in the world. yes, we think the ecb is going to do more. it was a bit of a setback what we experienced in december. we had expected the ecb to do more. the consensus seems to be somewhat on the cautious side. we will get more forecasts longer-term from the ecb in march. they may still look kind of

benign but with oil prices lower than we thought at the end of last year, it still looks likely that assets will grow on the pressure to the ecb. betty: does that lead you to believe there will be parity between a dollar and the euro in 2016? >> i certainly would not rule that out. i think the pressure on the euro will continue to be on the downside. if got some factors which play in favor of the euro like the surplus but in terms of the central bank policy the exchange rate for the euro has downside risks it >> what about manufacturing and growth in the eurozone? do you expect continued improvement with our without ecb intervention? will manufacturing data look pretty good? >> manufacturing is interesting

in the european economy. it's not what's driving growth at the moment. what's driving growth is domestic consumption. it may be more neutral or slightly positive but manufacturing globally is in trouble. global trade is low and exports are suffering. within that picture, the eurozone is suddenly looking pretty good. part of that is the euro which helps european manufacturers retain market share. there has also been some reforms in the periphery which have lowered labor costs and made the eurozone manufacturers more competitive in the u.s. market and the british market and even emerging markets. suddenly, european manufacturers look more resilient than u.s. for chinese ones that >> stimulus and better manufacturing, no wonder there are some balls out there. thank you for being with us. it's that time. betty: it is time for the global

battle of the charts. get next to yours. this is when we look at the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. kicking things off, joe weisenthal and you are staying on the europe vain. >> i like to stick to europe. one of the major challenges for the ecb is falling short on its inflation target. if you look at germany, the economy is doing fine but on that every, still some major challenges. here is spain which is one of the faster growing economies. it's year-over-year cpi change it has not had positive inflation since june of last year. today it was expected to come in at positive 0.1% but came in negative. it shows how hard it's been now much for the ecb still has to do getting eurozone economies back. it's not happening and this is

one of the bright spots supposedly in europe not anywhere close. betty: why is this? does oil have something to do with this? >> certainly but even though europe is growing, there are still lots of slack in the economy. there's just a lot of catching up to do. betty: we're going to asia with caroline. >> we are so international. i'm talking about the yuan. we are seeing this discounting going on and off during onshore and affect the chinese central bank does not like you cashing in on it this is an and to cash in on the yuan discounts this is onshore versus offshore it off to your is much cheaper. -- offshore is much cheaper. you buy the yuan in hong kong and then you go and sell it onshore. you sell it when you are in

beijing. some you are getting better arbitrage. it seems the pboc does not like that cashing in. they want that gap to close. this is the widest have seen the discount offshore versus onshore in three months. in august, they had that sudden round of thing the yuan lower. that made that wide back in august. eventually, this should close but at the moment, it seems many are worrying. they are battling foreign banks doing that. betty: that will be a big theme for next year but today, jow wins it. i think you came back with a new look. >> i cut my hair. betty: see you guys later. ♪

>> 12:00 p.m. in new york and 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. welcome to bloomberg markets.

from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. i'm scarlet fu. the odds of a federal reserve rate increase in march are rising. the latest setback come a surprising drop in home sales last month. what does this mean for banks act we have the 2016 outlook for financial powerhouses. huge pain for one of wisdom trees top etf's. our financial firms putting too many eggs in one basket? julie hyman has been keeping track of all the moves in the markets good to the downside once again. julie: risk on yesterday, off today. the major averages