tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg December 30, 2015 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
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betty: welcome to "bloomberg markets." good afternoon. second to last trading day of the old year, 2015. doubt turned negative for the year and the s&p clinging to yearly gains. economic hotspots in 2016, from russia's efforts to boost its economy to argentina's new president promising reform. are any of these countries good places to park your money? hedge funds have had a rough 2015, with seneca the latest fund to return money to investors. is this a game changing moment for the hedge fund world? markets are closing in less than an hour. on to head to the markets desk, where julie hyman has the latest. the rally we saw earlier just
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disappearing. no rally today could s&p still up on the year, barely, less than a percent. it will be pivotal for the return for the s&p 500 for the year, at least. all the averages near the lows of the session. it is a relatively broad-based decline. utility shares are up very slightly today. energy and materials are lower. we have been seeing most groups declining here. utilities is the sole group in the grain. again, it has a lot to do with commodities. oil prices trending lower today reported eia inventories unexpectedly rose last week. they've been around 3% throughout the day. also watching gold prices as well. gold selling off not quite as dramatically but selling off nonetheless. again apple is once
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laggard, right? julie: apple has been a really interesting story this year, particularly in december where we see the stock defining. today it is down another percent or so. really, the longer-term issue for the company has been a lot of analysts questioning demand for the latest iteration of the iphone, also looking ahead to future growth prospects. questions have been raised about what is next for apple. what is the next source of growth? g, this looks of the seasonal variation in the stock. this goes over the past five years. this is this year. the return for december is 9%. december tends to be a relatively bad month for the company, at least over the past five years. year.s off a weak
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it could be the first down year for apple since 2007. betty: thank you so much, julie hyman, the markets desk. puerto rico will default on $37 million due to two of its agency bonds this friday. the governor speaking anin san juan, put the blame on washington, saying congress forced this decision. joining us is laura keller. what happened? laura: basically, the governor came and said that for the payment do january 1, we will not be able to make everything. would be 13 bonds that normally do for payments and 11 of those agencies will get payments, 10 two of them at least partially will not. we wereut i thought making progress in perjury go. what happened? we are in some cases. electric authority is moving along with an agreement -- it is
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taking longer than a year but they are moving along with the agreement. there are all of these different get classes and right now perjury go does not have enough money to pay everything. betty: why is the governor blaming congress? laura: i think he is looking to run faster find some sort of solution. there are a couple of different ideas on the table. the treasury secretary says we need to have different types of rico.r 9 to puerto there is ideas of putting a control board together and republicans upset we would support that as long as there are certain conditions puerto rico would mean. there are things happening in congress can it is just that none of them have actually happened at this point. betty: they are not able to look to congress to give them any sort of lifeline. the fact that they cannot make these payments january 4, what are the results of that?
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betty: some creditors have warned that they will do this. --you have a payment default technical default is different, but actual payment default opens of paymentossibility action. i'm contractually obligated to get this payment, please help me get the payment. puerto rico will be opened up to legal challenges and more and more if you see them default on bigger and bigger amounts of debt. there are more creditors agitating for the mutual funds and hedge funds that are quite aggressive. betty: how do they get out of this? is the ball rolling now? laura: start to have all of these creditor lawsuits and then you don't have a chapter nine bankruptcy process or some kind of restructuring mechanism, then you start to have this big pile of lawsuits. you so much. thank
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going to be one of the top stories as we head into the new year. laura keller, who covers distressed debt for us. i want to bring you to "taking stock" with kathleen hays. the guest is bill rhodes. our number welcoming television audience. bill's senior advisor to citigroup. he is the author of "banker to " -- that is my nickname for him. bill, you are done some much work with latin america over the years. let's start with resilient. the result stock market is set for the -- the brazil stock market is set for the third annual loss. de 2016 outlook is imming. and the brazilian government is settling big fines with banks. what is hurting brazil right now?
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bill: just about everything, kathleen. it is great to be with you again. the economy is doing extremely badly. it is the worst downside brazil has seen since the great depression in the 1920's and and 1930's. they revised growth down and that is the consensus of economists from what was supposed to be, -3%. it could end up -4% this year. something close to 4% next year. and inflation are around the 10% range. it is somewhere between a perfect storm in a meltdown. as you have mentioned, as we entered in here, what is going on there is very, very serious. brazil outt it take of it short term isn't clear because you have a dysfunctional government with the workers
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party supporting dilma rousseff, but the majority of congress not supporting her. you have a change in the leadership of the finance minister, which is the key ministry in brazil, and they move out the man put in there because yet support of the markets in brazil and internationally, he was replaced by a member of the workers party, dilma rousseff's party, to have been minister of planning, but had been in his earlier stages under the previous minister of finance as the deputy. there are a lot of strong currents going on there in the sense of the ability of the administration to get the country out of depression, because that is what it really is in, and back to growth. kathleen: bill, you are very optimistic on argentina as its new president takes the reins of
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power and moves quickly to shake things up in this country that has had so many things hanging over it. so many dark shadows and obstacles. why are you so optimistic? is argentina ready to turn around now? well, it is not going to be easy but he has been preparing himself for quite some time. he has a first-rate economic team, starting off with the finance minister who has been previously, in earlier times, the governor -- the president of the central bank. and he has moved very, very quickly to free up the exchange rate, to take off export taxes on agricultural goods, which are the biggest export of argentina, because argentina has one of the greatest agricultural sectors in the world. and this is going to be able to build up the reserves of the central bank from which had reached a critically low stage. you are probably going to have an uptick in inflation, already high, at 25% short-term.
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i think it will attract investment both from argentines to mystically and also from the international side. i am optimistic that although he faces a tough job, he will be able to bring it off and he will also be able to settle, as you know, this tremendous debt problem, which has been overhanging him for 15 years, trying to get an arrangement on oldouts from the problems caused with the default in 2001. kathleen: this has been a battle for years in argentina versus the creditors and bondholders led by the hedge fund elliott management. why do you think it can be resolved now? bill: macri needs to get a result cap the international markets. it is small for argentina considering that the debt had been overall 100 billion, to shore up the finances there. in order to really cap the the marketsap
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internationally for the sovereign as well as the private sector, he needs to get this settled. it is not going to be easy but he will get it done. finalen: quickly, bill, question on argentina, time to put your money into argentina if you are an investor? bill: well, it is an opportunity, but you have to know where you are investing, what company you are going into. like anything else, you have to know what you are doing. kathleen: well, that is why we are talking to you, bill rhodes, because you know what you are doing. intimately involved in latin america and other emerging markets over the years, eating the big restructuring in the 1980's and 1990's could we are going to continue our conversation with bill. a world that the banker to the world knows so well. we want to thank our bloomberg for joiningiewers us and we will keep it going with "taking stock" on bloomberg radio. ♪
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internet providers are making good on their advertising promises about faster download speed. that is going to an ftc report, which shows consumers are mostly streaming video online at the speed they are paying for. the downside is there was a growing chasm between those with fastest services and those in rural areas whose options are more limited. twitter is getting tough on violent threats and hate speech will stop the social media company says that users found guilty of sending the messages will be suspended or banned. accounts seen as intolerant on race and religion will not be allowed as well. a milestone for india. the number of mobile phone subscribers there has just passed one billion. china is the only other country with that many. they are fighting for customers, which is driving down prices.
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that is the bloomberg business flash. much more ahead on "bloomberg markets." the hedge fund dominoes are falling. the latest is seneca, which managed about $500 million to is the new year going to be any better in the hedge fund world? and we are watching stocks on the second to last trading day of the year. ♪
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times --sign of the doug hirsch, one of the founders of seneca capital, is returning money to clients from his hedge fund after almost 20 years. in a liturgy wrote last week, s a t wrote last week, "i am no longer able to make the commitment and sacrifices required to run outside capital. i cannot start with the
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dedication required for your capital." --ning us is seamount foxman simone foxman. is this a water shed moment in hedge fund world? simone: when you look at the numbers there is not so many more shutting down than in years prior. maybe we are approaching this and people are just less excited about hedge funds than they used to be in alaska when years. for the first three quarters of were close.4 funds 2014, 661. it is a little bit. slightly fewer funds launch. betty: is it because of the bigger names? simone: when you look at --tress, macro, when you see blue is a lot of --
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crested -- there's a lot of big-name funds. strugglingem were for a couple of years. , hisis case, doug hirsch fund wasn't down that much. when you are managing $500 million, you have a lot of requirements these days, but from investors and regulators, in terms of transparency, legal costs. it is a lot to run a fund. when you have made money, you have been in it for 20 years, maybe he can run his own money. what is what it seems like a lot of these hedge fund managers are doing. our investors links to get all? -- our investors getting spooked at all? simone: i think, not. it is slowing inflows. but when you look at the broad landscape of where to put your money, if you want fixed income-like returns, you think
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maybe stocks are at a peak and you want someone who can short, the answer you are right that is hedge funds or some sort of private equity hedge fund hybrid vehicle. that has a lot of interest, too. betty: and the winners -- we keep talking about the losers. simone: there have been winners, particularly multi-strategy funds. millennium, citadel, both of the digits this year. there are certainly people making double digits this year. betty: there are indeed. when there is loses, there also winners. simone foxman, our bloomberg hedge fund report. stocks are near the lows of the session as the s&p tries to eke out a fourth straight year of gains. julie hyman standing by. julie: going to be down for the wire in terms of the annual performance. joining me for today's options
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inside is dan deming, managing director from take aim financial -- kkm financial pretty good to see you as always. bouncing backf and forth between gains and losses for the week. i know that by definition, options traders are relatively short-term. what areinto 2016, your thoughts as to some of the trends we will see an option? right,tell you, you are this week is kind of an off week. we are seeing volumes very low. we expect that to continue for the next couple days. next year we are looking at interesting things. aroundutures are trading 1810 right now. maintaining a significant premium. the volatility expectations moving into january are still elevated even on the markets are
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watching around this week. julie: the trade you are looking at is a hedge of a sort. against the continued weakness in stocks. walk me through what the trade is here. sure, julie. what i'm looking at is a protected widespread. the probability still persists and is elevated into the next quarter of the year that the market will see volatility and the probabilities greater in the markets will see the lower end of the range rather than the higher. i'm looking at the march put spread. fairly inexpensive protective hedge in place. than 2.5-one risk reward on it. if we go back down to the lower ends of the range. julie: why do you think the risk is higher?
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you look at the upcoming potential catalyst, you have earning season coming not too long from now. i'm sure the fed speculation is going to heat up about when the next increase is going to be. dan: the earnings front will be pivotal moving into 2016. second of all, technically i don't like the way the market looks as well. pattern,he rolling lower highs and lower lows. i think the probability is that it is greater moving into the first quarter. plus the fact that the last two years in january, we've seen weakness in the middle of january as well. all right, happy new year
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sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. world live from headquarters in midtown manhattan, you are watching "bloomberg markets." i am betty liu. io has morphed in the news desk. ramy: the latest on bill cosby. the comedian has been arraigned in pennsylvania. he did not answer a plea. -- enter a plea. up andrges come from encounter with a temple university employee more than 10 years ago. prosecutors say that he encouraged the woman to take pills and drink. about 50 women have come forward with sexual assault claims against the entertainer. this is the first case to reach
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the criminal courts. is closeury department to announcing sanctions against several companies and individuals for their ties to ballistic missile program, going to a person familiar with the matter. the department of foreign asset control is responsible for administering sanctions. in iraq, the country's troops and militia are clearing mines left behind when the islamic state retreated from ramadi. the city was recaptured on monday. also, chicago police officers will now be required to carry tasers when responding to calls. that is among the new department policies announced today. the changes, while a city officer faces murder charges. jason van eyck pleaded not guilty in the shooting death of a black teenager. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus
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around the world. thank you., let's go to abigail doolittle live from the nasdaq with the latest on how stocks are trading. we are near the lows of the session. that is true. stocks have been trading steadily down today at the nasdaq, although not significantly, down .5% at the most. one standout stock started strong and is still strong even as the composite index is down a bit. the company says they received an unsolicited bid from an entity that they were calling "party g." bloomberg broke the news early this morning that party g is china resources, the entity before -- behind it did to billion bid a $2.4 accepted by fairchild last month. riley says the new bid has "meaningful deficiencies," while others say that there's a strong
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pop ability -- probability that they will raise their bid for fairchild to shares are on pace to close for the second year in a row after much volatility in 2015. betty: thank you, abigail doolittle at the nasdaq for us. coming up in the next 20 minutes of "bloomberg markets," is the fed only hiking rates to cut them in a year from now? someone her from says there is a boomerang effect going on. what are the chances of a global recession in 2016? either hidden risks that investors may not be paying attention to? and the currency trade in the coming months as the fed pivots to more dovish commentary. those stories and much more coming up on bloomberg television as we are trading near the lows of the session. the dow is down about 74 points, being dragged down by the energy shares. ♪
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year of thethe boomerang -- here is why. rew thet yellen th tightening boom right in december and it will hopefully not hit her in the head. just to be clear, it will tighten a couple more times and i expect march, june, that is what they have laid out. 100 basis points a year. eight meetings, 25 basis points. every other meeting for the next three years, and then you are in a position to cut if you have to. larry summers made the point that you are not going to get there. we are going to have a recession before you can raise rates enough to cut them enough to fight the recession. that is the fed's big dilemma.
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by raising rates at all, they increase the odds of the recession. they will race in march and june and by august or september come even the fed will realize that if you get the wrong model, you will have the wrong policy every time. there are good people and i know a lot of the governors and staff and they are smart, hard-working people. data, look at the actual looks like they get 2015 gdp, 1.59%. yellen, she gave a speech in providence. she laid out the whole playbook. growth, 2%t is 2.5% inflation, 5% unemployment. and it has to be trending. inflation, 5%%
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unemployment, 2.2% growth trending the right way, that is what she thought she saw in december based on the models. seencariest thing i've from exports and imports both declined. -- we haven'thing seen since the great depression, when the absolute level of world trade has declined. same thing happened in china, actually. dollar, with a strong you expect exports to the client. but imports to increase. down.ption is going >> let's assume you are absolutely right. a reasonable times and have to back down. do the markets lack confidence at that point? jim: now we talking september print this is when the boomerang comes back. is a well-known
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liberal labor economist. she cuts rates in september, ted cruz will burn down the fed. it will be impossible. they will not be able to cut rates until december at the earliest. we are done for the year. i consider forward guidance in the easing toolkit. my expectation is by september, we are done for the year. the markets are rallying on that. again, that was jim rickards speaking this morning. pretty provocative there with his predictions put somebody else who is provocative is the 86-year-old founder of vanguard. he has strong opinions on today's traders with the stocks near historic highs. >> find a good pi -- if i am a you, by definition,
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betty, or a bad stock picker. the stock picker's market is a giant myth that needs to be shattered. every value hear investor cringing at those common spirit that was -- cringing at those comments. joins us. you have spent a lot of time with bogle. mike: what stocks did you pick, betty? betty: i guess so you don't trust me with your money. him: i spent the day with for a magazine story. so generous of him to share his wisdom with me for the day. basically what he is saying is that the has repeated continuously over the years. you can beat the market by clicking the stock one year, two years. it is difficult to do that year after year and consistently beat the market.
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neutral the benchmarks for year and because of the costs associated with active management -- the numbers, the inflows into vanguard sort of side with him in recent years. i think the latest figures from bank of america, 40% of active funds beat their benchmarks. randomly -- that's a few hundred mutual funds -- fund: if you were an index really got anything. mike: you did nothing this year, basically. there was a great column this week about one of the best stock pickers of the year. 20% gain this year. if you can put 20% gain in a flat market -- this is a fund that is beat the market consistently.
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them, they want to be in this space during this stretch in time. if the market is doing nothing, it is sent to shift and site wait a minute. classt think the investor quantity -- the investors monitored of my -- betty: 20%. says, over time, though. mike: overtime it will average out. in the same story i wrote about bogle, someone said is there anything really such as asset it inment -- you can put and beat the stock market is your. betty: mike regan, bloomberg at fly columnist. we are about 20 minutes away from the close of trade.
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betty: welcome back to "bloomberg markets" i am betty liu. stocks are taking a light lower as we approach the end of the session. barely holding on to gains for the year. pretty precipitous drop. nursing thin volume as we had towards the new year. weisenthal,oe cohost of "what'd you miss." maybe some reason for people selling is we keep hearing people falling for a recession. is a lot of anxiety about the economy. we will be talking to david levy, who has been getting a lot of attention. he thinks there's going to be a recession in the u.s. in 2016,
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which is a very out of consensus call. his argument is interesting. he says that for the first time basically ever, the u.s. will be dragged into a recession because of weakness overseas. usually the u.s. is a closed economy and it does its own --ng and then back typically economies are mostly dependent on the u.s. and his argument is that in any 16, the weakness we see all caps the world, slowness in europe, will be enough to drag the u.s. betty: has he called for this before? fairly negative going into 2015. he thinks there is a chance of a global recession, which is not correct in the sinful technically i don't think there was a global recession. there was a slowdown in 2015 and the selloff we saw in emerging markets, things related to china , is deeper than a lot of people expected. betty: he has been a bear for a while. joe: since the crisis.
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the main argument is private sector debt. deleveraging has not completed. an ongoing drag. betty: where has he been right about this? joe: they were warning of things going bad before the 2008 financial crisis, and his dad famously called the 1929 great depression. so there is a lineage of forecasting in his family. betty: how morbid, right? of calling recessions. joe: it is an interesting thing -- the thing is, most years the stock market and the economy grow, so you can't really be a hero by calling for something to grow because most years that is consensus and that is what everyone thinks. i guess it is sort of inevitable that you become known for out of consensus. betty: well, we will see. he has been calling it for sometime, although he is being joined by more and more people
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this year. joe: a few more. betty: still rare. joe weisenthal, cohost of "what'd you miss." wu onn also catch david the show today. it begins at the top of the hour as we hit the close. time for the biggest business stories in news right now. this is the year wall street discovered cord cutting. media stocks are heading for the first annual decline in seven years. the growing number of americans who are dropping traditional pay-tv packages. disney worried investors in august when it revealed espn was losing subscribers. the biotech company formerly run is filing foreli bankruptcy protection. nasdaq this attitude do list the company's shares earlier this month. wasier this month shkreli arrested unsecured charges related to another company. billionaire investor carl icahn has won a bidding war for a car
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repair and auto-parts chain. the japanese tire maker bridgestone refused to cap his takeover offer of more than $1 billion. has 800 locations in more than 30 states. shares of weight watchers have surged almost 30% since oprah ebuted a campaign endorsing the program. they have piled on the pounds there. it has renewed optimism about the company could investors are betting she can revive the long struggling company. in new york landmark is closing its doors at least for now. toys "r" us has been in times square nearly 15 years. it is known for its indoor ferris wheel and life-size barbie doll and t rex robot. opted tothe rigell renew its lease there. it is looking for a new year by location. and that is your bloomberg business flash.
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before we had to bloomberg radio, let's get a quick check on how the markets are trading right before the closing bell. we kind of accelerated our losses in the last 15 minutes. we are now back a little. let's go to bloomberg radio's "taking stock" with kathleen hays. kathleen: welcome to our bloomberg television audience, welcoming a very knowledgeable guest when it comes to all things foreign exchange. doug borthwick's managing director and head of foreign exchange. first of all, welcome. doug: thank you very much. kathleen: the people's bank of china, they are clapping down on certain kinds of currency trading. why is it so important, offshore trading versus the onshore trading in the yuan? doug: the news overnight is that there were two banks that were told that for three months they would not be able to trade on the onshore market. there is to markets in china, the onshore market and the aftermarket.
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of chinae's bank really wants to see people that trade in that market to only trade if it is based upon a transaction. if you are pedicel the chinese currency at the onshore markets, --r soul stock and equities the vessel stock and equities. kathleen: i guess it makes sense from china's point of view but when i think of the global market, one of the reasons the big bang trades is to make the market, which helps investors and traders. and it also makes them some money. my guess is that china is not ready for that. there is annly arbitrage where you can buy dollars in the onshore and so it in the offshore. argentina stopped having a dual system. it is really to stop money leaving the country to quickly. people have been taking advantage of that. that wants people to note this is not the behavior we are looking for. so if china wants to
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become a true global economic powerhouse, it is already the second largest economy in the world and growing rapidly. to be a true economic powerhouse, you presumably have to have open capital markets, you have to have a currency that trades freely. is this a step away from that? doug: it is a short-term step away from it but they've talked about doing this by 2020. you have four more years of them to get to that point and if they see it in the short term, there are things happening in the market that legally should not be done, they will say this is not the time for it. china is spending the next number of years growing their capital markets to allow for people to take money out and put money in and invest in different things. sdr is part ofe that. kathleen: a nice list of crowded trades. first of all, what is the crowded trade? so many people want to do it, whatever the trade is. the field is already full.
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fieldone thing about the right now is when there is very little volatility, people tend to follow herds and everyone wants to get into the same trade. the serious in the long dollar -- this year it has pretty long dollar trade, the trade commodities -- people that commodities would go higher and it has gone lower and lower. the trades that people are looking for, the gold will bottom around these levels. they are buying the australian dollar. we see this is the bottom picking as opposed to maybe going with the flow. the fed has signaled three or four interest-rate increases. that gets you over 1% by the end of the event -- by the end of the year. what is it going to mean for the dollar? will the dollar strengthened? if so, by how much?
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which currencies will weaken the most against the dollar if the fed is successful at making that many rate hikes? doug: the market thinks there ofl be 2 rate rises instead 4. was to raise rates, the euro would come off. you would see the dollar-? much, much higher. the likelihood of the fed doing those rate rises is unlikely. you mentioned oil, one of the big surprises of 2015. the downturn that started in 2014 continued and got even worse as 2015 progressed. every team it up for a few days, people want to get bullish. that is it, oil rises from here. and ultimately it turns run again, as it did today. we got is from the government that stockpiles of crude oil actually rose. doug: there is a number of
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different forces happening in the oil market. the saudis let the price drops of it they could push out the factors in the u.s. in thetors -- frackers u.s., they saw that if the price of oil goes down, russia will lose its source of funding, essentially. they are allowing this oil market collapse to keep on going. every day you read about how every single tanker seems to have already been booked and filled with oil. we seem to be awash in oil so i am not sure where we will see the price rise come from. barrel some have predicted. doug: i think you get sub-20. kathleen: sub-20! doug: the saudi's produce oil at much cheaper level than the rest of the world. they end up being the only ones making money and everyone else seems to be losing money. the priceans need
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ckershigher and the fra needed much, much higher. you are seeing stars in the high-yield market in the united states. kathleen: i will have to tweet that out in just a minute, doug borthwick. emerging markets. brazil under pressure. what do you see for them? doug: there are a lot of folks looking in emerging markets right now i'm thinking that this is the time we should get into brazil, south korea, the rand. i think that the forces we are expecting here, they have not come through and now is not the time to get involved. to get involved in brazil once they fix the political situation. guests,a, your previous there is a positive story in argentina, but in brazil that positive story is not there. unless you think -- south africa as well, unless you think gold
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prices will start rising again. there's instability in the political market as well. there is an expert patient the world that china will allow the currency to weaken going into 2016. and not of that view but that is a view their. a lot of stories there. china is one of the big stories everyone is talking about for 2016. that may be misplaced. people are looking at central banks around the world as the ones that can step in to help the world if there is any more crisis is the china is seen as the only one that has our -- arrows left in the quiver. china is the one that has more power at the table. no one is listening to see what the fed is going to do. is whatreally watch for the people's bank of china is going to do. kathleen: you are a currency trader and you are up all night. where do you make money? what is going to rise?
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what is a trade that doug borthwick likes going into 2016? doug: i am a fan of looking where the market is and taking the opposing view and i think that is something done quite strongly, during the european crisis, when spain got devalued, everyone wanted to sell spanish bonds. there is a lot of time when the market get so excited about certain trades that they forget about the fundamentals behind it. in the currency markets, there is a lot of thought process going into the fact that you are going to see the euro near parity. we have heard for six years about how parity is not going to happen. i don't think it is going to happen next year, either. a number of months ago the ecb said we are not going to do all it takes. let's buy the euro again. kathleen: doug borthwick, thank you for joining us. doug: thanks for having me. kathleen: free much appreciate
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scarlet: u.s. stocks closing lower after section highs. oil following. fed in 2016. we look at top trades for 2015. joe: a global recession on the horizon? we speak to david levy. scarlet: retailers getting a late shopping search. we break it down with charts you can't miss. we begin with the markets. foremost of today's session it looked like we had a fairly calm day. it was fairly minor. the smallest part since the day before thanksgiving.
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