indexes. amazon and netflix are both up betty: from bloomberg world more than 100%. headquarters, good morning and a happy new year. up more than 135% here is what we're watching at this hour. this year. it is due tosays partiers around the world are saying goodbye to 2015. the strong global sukkot -- mobile supply growth. the s&p begins the day lower turning this day -- this year's who has beenays, returns negative. what dangers could be lurking in the new year? we will ask alan blinder, bullish on this trade, however, he has been on the sidelines joining us. around netflix this year and a number one question on oil as says he is in the same position going into 2016. it heads for its biggest to your turning to the worst performer loss ever. of the nasdaq 100, micron. producers want to keep pumping shares are down 60% this year as more. earnings declined 43% year-over-year on weak pricing. before we get to the markets, in number of analysts out there this is tokyo. suspended the stock recently. celebrating their fireworks ringing in 2016. the bottom may be one of the first cities to be doing so.

sydney, i believe, the first to in and the consensus price target out there about $18. celebrate the new year. higher by nearly 30%. we will be doing that in a betty: thank you. little bit. we'll get our time. about a half hour into the trading session. china, the u.s. or emerging i want to head to the markets markets, what region will see desk were julie hyman is the best returns and biggest standing by. julie: i'm happy to start risk in the coming year? celebrating right now. we take you around the world to betty: break out the champagne. julie: market participants are get the outlook from the world's top banking chiefs. not celebrating. selling onng some >> the monetary union is very difficult. the last day of the year. agree withtions to all major averages are down by a half of percent this year. -- one half of a percent. something. they will have to muddle through. i think because of the willexity of that, they right now it is looking like a loss on the year. the year-to-date performance of have lower growth. the s&p 500 right now, a decline it does not mean he will not have great investment of about .25%. opportunities. a lot of the stocks over there, 60% of business. do not confuse the two. tolooks like we are going post a loss for the year and the fundamentally, the worst annual performance if it keeps on this track since 2008. getting back to today's session, policy rate is 6.5. at the end of the day, it will

if you take a look at my happen slow long those terminal, consumer staples, dimensions. out slightlyrns information technology, telecoms, utilities. different, in the long term, you have a tremendous development of come toion people not necessarily a lot of rhyme or reason. and as -- it is another day where volume is low. society and do the things people last trades before the end of have done for a long time. the year. that is good if it keeps going. betty: volume is also low in oil but we are still seeing some growthime you have the movement. julie: the movement in oil has been curious and interesting they have had, you get hiccups. if you ask me long-term, am i today. bullish on china, my answer is what we had earlier this morning was a big leg down in oil prices actually right. what i invest in china, yes. without a particular catalyst. >> we are focused on emerging now it is recovering to some extent and at the moment is markets, asia, china, and we little changed. need to do more. worst two years for oil on record with the decline of we are very focused on the around 60% since the end of middle east where we do a lot. 2013. we are also watching natural gas we have a great investment bank finally, itand today which is an interesting story. it has also been -- natural gas could take assets per capita 60% has been gyrating. over number two. up 5.6%.

number two in it fell yesterday after a winning streak. switzerland. cold weather, good for natural we are in an excellent position gas. between now to deliver. betty: surprised at how sharp the reversal was based on a few >> the economy is fundamentally strong but the strength is cold days. regional. we have regionalized the country julie: sharp reversal downward yesterday. there have been big swings in from an economic perspective. natural gas recently. take the bay area for example. betty: let's check in with first it is as strong as i have seen word news this morning. in my 13 years. vonnie quinn has more. vonnie: good morning and thank you. housing is booming and technology is booming. a tent arrest related to the paris terrorist attack. arrested yesterday in the brussels neighborhood were some if you go to the east and the of the attackers lived. south and central valley, you would not he the same strength. he's accused of terrorist murder and taking part in the activities of a terroristic group. betty: erik schatzker here with authorities say about 10 cell me who interviewed the phones received during a search bank'ceo's. talked to them about the big are being examined. risk and also the opportunities. russia has begun a major modernization of its maybe according to u.s. naval hear theirresting to intelligence. russia will expand appointment of its most advanced cruise missiles so they can be used for varied opinions. investors want to know if they attacks at land and sea. will make money next year. officials say that will change many run businesses and that destroyian's maybe to

-- the russian navy to destroy is why they have to look targets. globally. it will be tough for banks like a record influx of refugees to jpmorgan, in europe where growth the nation's advantage. encouragedel is still just beginning. here for example for a bank like wells fargo, u.s. economic citizens to reject , it is more of the same. hatemongering. half of the asylum-seekers very difficult to generate revenue growth. are fleeing -- are seeking with that extraordinary monetary stimulus, would that be even tougher this year? years out, if the economy begins it is a matter of course to get his momentum up, the that we are open with people who yield curve will stephen and are seeking refuge with us. these banks on the basis of lending alone will make more there has seldom been a year it that we have been challenged to money. there is no guarantee that will follow up words with be the case in 2016. deeds. betty: in the meantime, they are vonnie: she thanks germany for trying to boost their bottom helping syrian refugees. lines. betty: much more ahead on if you look, banks around the world have eliminated 600,000 jobs.

they are not eliminating them at bloomberg television. alan blinder joining me with his the same pace. anticipates 2000 more scorecard for central bankers this year and what risks are job cuts. lurking in 2016. that is fractional for citigroup. they are down jobs since the crisis. some banks are hiring. goldman sachs through the end of the third quarter had increased employment in 12 months about ♪ 10%. standardmost the loan on wall street. wells fargo up fractionally. the big university banks are still in the process of cutting costs by cutting jobs. betty: where will the opportunity be? .: it is still in cost-cutting. erik: it is still in cost-cutting. digitization. the idea that ranking a particular, sales as a business have become more moderated. we have already seen it in equities.

in creditpened default swap indexes. it has happened in futures. but it will happen according to mckenzie, it will happen in options on foreign exchange. it is going to happen in cash trading of g 10 sovereign debt. so the outlook for the people sitting in the chairs is not particularly good. however, it is a positive trend for investors. costs are collapsing across asset classes. it is five times cheaper to trade treasuries that he used to be. is almost six times cheaper for exchange cash equities. five times cheaper to trade equity options than it used to be. betty: it scares me to think that all the trillions of

dollars is being put in the computers.tomated that is a little scary. .: if you ask them to make investment decisions, that is another matter altogether. betty: great point. thank you so much. happy new year as well. still to come, the company that pays you to quit here and imagine getting $10,000 when you walk out the door. we will talk to that company's >> you are listening to the ceo next. ♪ bloomberg advantage. we welcome everybody on bloomberg tv. we want to type about some of the economic thoughts that are out there and some of the data points. mike mckee, who covers the .conomy, here at bloomberg also, anna-louise jackson is with us. it has been an interesting year.

did we get any data points? >> initial jobless claims up 20,000. out of you to forget that number because it was a holiday week last week. you can never trust the numbers so pay no attention next thursday when it come out. the four-week average is at a low. we are still doing well. chicago purchasing managers comes in oddly low. the forecast was for it to rise to 50 from 48.7. it is not as important a number as it used to be. they changed some of that and people do not a as much attention. it may be one of the reasons for a little weight in the market. >> in terms of the equity market, anna we are down again. >> finishing the year on a low note. it has been a frustrating year for a lot of investors. we're ending the year where we started. we have had some ups and downs. really have not moved anywhere

at the end of the day. >> is this unusual for december? at some market watchers, december tens to be an up month? >> there is the so-called santa rally we were looking for this week. the market tends to end the year on a higher note because a lot of people are getting out of positions. , the end of december in particular has been a stronger time. we are not seeing that. the market has been trading tick betty: 11:00 a.m. in new york and midnight 2016 in hong kong. vertically with oil in the past few weeks. welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ with the volatility in oil prices that has created additional volatility in the stock market. >> if santa claus is going to rally, he's better get to it. >> he does not have very long. curious.

from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good morning. i'm betty lou and here is what from what i understand, a rising we're watching at this hour. taking it slow and silicon valley, investors a lot more -- in a rising rate environment, especially initially, stocks tend to do well. cautious these days are we will i feel like this will be our see if that is likely to change discussions. talk thisheard you next year. in night when only the best bubbly will to. morning, we will still have a lot of fed discussions in 2016. >> we replaced one question, bestagne with one of the known in the business. when other going to move, with over are live pictures when her they going to move again and how often. of thea harbour -- when are they going to move again and how often. stocks often have moved up when beautiful fireworks welcome you get a fed rate increase, it thing -- welcoming in 2016. is the fed confirming the economy is doing better. in this case it was so well for this company, leaving your job really pays. they give employees $10,000 when telegraphed for so long that most people think what ever they quit. market move your going to get has already been priced in plus there is not a lot of let's get straight to julie psychological agreement with the hyman at the markets desk where fed's feeling that the economy would be doing great at this we are 90 minutes into the point. trading session. nothing to celebrate yet. that does not seem to be suggestion that the economy is

growing strongly enough that we julie: definitely not. will see an increase in earnings to justify higher stock prices. we see declines on a day for the because a move so much in major averages. they are steepening as the day goes on. advance currency market seems to have priced in much of the move it means also that the loss for so some of the strong dollar the year is deepening as well. going to hurt the economy fears may not come to pass in either. red for500 is in the these economic numbers we the year. the losses .4%. will see over the next few weeks are going to tell us quite a lot it has been rocky for many about the pace of the fed investors. we have spoken a lot in the last two days about hedge funds that rising. i thought you had a great interview talking about how the have been shutting down, throwing up their hands. data.s given up on the >> to a certain extent. betty: we are seeing some of the the thing about the fed is, they biggest losers of the year leaving energy. are looking at the current data but what they are looking at is what the data tells them about what's going to happen because of monetary policy working with julie: sometimes going into the long legs. beginning of the next year. they want a guess at what going to be happening a year or 18 all of these commodity or in the months from now. nrg, related -- their view is if you get unemployment as low as it is, 5% , and the economy keeps adding jobs at the same rate, it's

going to push unemployment even stop -- power related stocks. lower and at some point you will especially pay attention at the get to the point where people bottom. have to pay you more money to go work for them. that will add to inflation. bit of this little the calculation did not include rotation at the in the the year, the recent big drop in oil prices. and finally, a quick check on crude prices, now up about one that throws a spanner into the works as they would say across the pond. cory: spanner into the works. quarter of 1%. in about a month or so we before we saw a big leg downward. will be talking all about corporate earnings. we will start to see those betty: courtney has more from numbers. the news desk. rich cameron talked about the orange book put together a bloomberg and how he likes to dig through quarterly reports courtney: cities in europe are taking no chances this new year's eve. according to a newspaper, the from companies and look for where they mention anything about the economy. telegraph, all 2001 police it will be interesting to see carry as authorized to executives have to gun will be on duty. say about higher wage prices. an intelligence agency warned that islamic terrorists may be rather it is tougher to find workers and what that will be doing to their cost equation. planning an attack on new york city. we will get a good check on the canceled its economy once we start to hear from global companies. traditional fireworks display anna: especially in areas like because of the threat of an attack. retail or restaurant. brussels is the site of the 10th arrest in the paris terror

there was some talk earlier about wage pressures so we will attacks. a suspect was arrested yesterday in the brussels neighborhood where some of the attackers lived. see if that is starting to affect margins and earnings. he is accused of murder and taking part in the activity of a carol: what are we expecting for earnings? with the energy companies and terrorist group. without. about 10 cell phones worse -- anna: that makes a huge were seized. difference. has tightened up some not so great comps. security for the annual ball we will see -- i'm not sure what drop in times square. 6000 police officers will be the estimate is now but deployed in the area, about 800 definitely energy is the more than usual. it is estimated one million people will be there. question right now. millions of people in the talked about this mississippi river basin. yesterday, mike, the notion that oil is so low. it rose 27 feet above level. pressure it has thousands of people have been told to evacuate. brought on the economy unit the oil does not require much fish does not recover much. mike: we did see a $10 drop, a big difference when you're at $42 only. you will see big percentage numbers to this point. there is a major shift in where can i go from here? strategy for jeb bush's white from what the analysts are house. the florida governor has

canceled plans advertising in key states. saying we seem to beginning to the point where can't go whole staff members from the miami lot lower. which will essentially mean headquarters are being sent to those states. inflation's upturn is postponed. the polls within the primary voting season just it is not going to necessarily weeks away. a passenger called the flight be totally out of the question. from hell. the fed will continue to look through that because it will look through energy at the core rate and see whether wages are ran into heavy turbulence and starting to push other aspects was forced to land in calgary. of the economy higher. authorities say 21 passengers we did an interesting chart on bloomberg surveillance on were injured and none of the television. if you graph the bloomberg injuries are life-threatening. commodities index against oil news 24 hours a day powered by prices for almost all of this and 150 journalists year, the two moved in tandem but over the last month we have news bureaus around the world. i'm courtney donohoe. seen this big additional drop in betty: thank you. oil prices in the commodities much more ahead. we are talking tech. index has not fallen which may see ahis be the year we suggest other commodities are starting to bottom out and that tech ipo rally finally after a slow 2015? would be good for the inflation why investors are looking for picture. carol:? chasing a unicorn -- a new year's resolution for the world? mike: spend less, get in shape. and suffering from numerous blackouts this year. is this a good time to buy into

carol: deja vu. utilities? an in-depth bloomberg mike: you cannot think about things like that when it is intelligence report. cold. anna:+++ ♪

carol: welcome back. with myol massar along betty: good morning. cohost, cory johnson out in san francisco. we welcome everyone on bloomberg it is time for the bloomberg tv as well. business flash. a great story on the bloomberg terminal today. it talks about how many jobs in first-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped to one particular sector, half a their highest levels since july of last week. million jobs just gone since the 2008 financial crisis. let's get the details. the labor department says the increase could reflect typical we are joined right now. swings during the holiday season . the justice department has talk to us about this story and launched a criminal investigation into bluebell creameries handling of its what sector we are talking

about. listeria outbreak. talking about the investigators are trying to determine if executives knew biggest banks in the world, about the outbreak. european and the u.s., and some ,f them are here on wall street they are looking into how they responded to it. contaminated ice cream made by 12 star buildings, and some of them are based in london or the company was linked to at least three deaths and dozens of illnesses. the world pass biggest banks frankfurt or other european capitals. finishedear to be but they are the most well-known banks. crisis, they have been bleeding jobs. just when you think this is it and this is over, it does not to be. with cutting jobs. banks have slashed about 600,000 jobs. almost 50,000 of them have come in the fourth quarter alone. deutsche bank says it will get rid of 46,000 jobs a 2018. -- jobs by 2018. i guess the troubles of the sector are not really over. as 2000 down we have hours to cory: it is kind of amazing you go. investors are gearing up for a have this utter collapse, slate of economic numbers asked remarkable in terms of the way week. the first major piece of data the business had worked. comes on monday with i cannot tell you how many manufacturing i sm. friends who work in the trading on wednesday the fed releases minutes from its december business, those jobs never came back. meeting and we wrap up the meeting with jobs friday. >> exactly.

prior to those releases we will get the first fed speakers of 2016. john williams and cleveland fed there are still a lot of trading's going on in the world, president loretta mester are but it is not the ladies to bp scheduled to speak at the are a lot has changed, as you said, and there is a lot of american economic association's discussion about liquidity that annual meeting. joining me now to discuss the blinder whos alan all ties into this. served as fed vice chairman of for so many reasons, the , not as willing to the board of governors during the alan greenspan era. also with us is brendan greeley get their hands on everything. will be speaking with loretta mester and others at this event. brendan, let's start with you. pickier, the banks do not want to build up inventories again. is a lot on the agenda for these guys. they do not want to be caught toxic waste, as we learned there are a lot of after the crisis. things -- loretta mester could end up holding a lot possible will matter this year. of the stuff they really shouldn't. she is not strongly hawkish or things have changed a lot. has not been in the past. carol: walk us through the i think the other thing we will specifics and break it down for look for is how does everybody us. according to the numbers, i define the word gradual.

would rather have been some a we were looking in this last working at deutsche bank rather than citigroup. release for the difference between measured and gradual. >> until a couple of months ago. the fomc went for gradual so [laughter] carol: that is true. what does that mean? but percentagewise. in terms of how much they cut we are back to basically where we were before. back their work. betty: one rate hike in but we >> citigroup has been the worst are back to that. hit. how do we define gradual? numbers, more than is that the big question? alan: it is the big question. since the crisis. market is not starting their. i would start with 100 basis points per year. carol: 36% of the workforce is a that is what the dots diagram shows. huge chunk. the median of the dots says you when you look at the extrapolate for three years, shows 100 basis points per year. percentage, the royal bank of scotland is even higher. betty: does not seem aggressive it was not as big a bank for with where inflation is right now? alan: yes and no. employees, so they did not cut as many. , right now. were 100,000, 80 8000 people. if inflation was not going to that is actually more than half before theforce budge from where it is now the fed should not be doing anything like that but the forecast, which the fed believes they are crisis. in 2007, they had about 100,000 employees and are down to about

reasonably confident on -- you could question the confidence but the forecast is that over 100. so, you know, that is also really bad. that period, inflation will track back up to target. when things get to target, when as you were talking about earlier, it actually grew soon we get to 2% inflation, and after the crisis for a few years let's just say 5% plus or minus unemployment, the fed would like to actually acquire postbank, a to have a normal interest rate. retail bank in germany, that at a lot of employees. say 3.5%. they have branches in every little town in germany. 2010, they have been betty: by that point you would be too late. brendan: can we go back to the inflation forecast? markets do not see inflation shrinking, a tiny bit. few thousand here and where the fed forecasts do. you are consistently, magically there and that was nothing. now, the latest announcements by a year and a half we get to 2%. is going to beat i don't understand how that happens or what is going to drive that. alan: what is supposed to drive it which has not been driving it a quarter of the workforce. very much now is the tightening it will catch up eventually. of markets in general and labor markets in particular. they said the job cuts will happen by 2018. we are now down to a 5% unemployment rate. betty: where is the wage growth? that is two more years. of decile ise

alan: it is just starting. we need more. ancient, i know it is looking back more than 10 years, but i show inflation feel that really started to press the trading market businesses so they were not increasing -- inflation creeping really there. that came outrms up area when you talk about of that, the spreads just got tighter and tighter and the deviations, what is going to be gradual, if inflation is better ability to front run analyst or worse, whatever you want to reports got more difficult to do. call it than the forecast, the the ways a lot of trading firms fed is going to go slower than made money, whether it was with ipo deals or trading -- it just 100 basis points. betty: brendan, you talked to kind of went away. janet yellen. i remember just looking at you asked her a question about inflation. brendan: my question was about the numbers on wall street the modeling. what i wonder -- they have got before the latest crisis. to be talking about this inside each time, they managed to come the fed and of course you can't say that. back up and recover because they are the old models broken? do they still work. came up with something new. crisisest fad before the -- we i want to play part were private-label andgage-backed securities do not have that. brendan: we do not have it but her word was humility. the derivatives world, which 2000's from just a she said we have to have some

humility about modeling. , thelittle market to now i think in general that has been true about macroeconomic modeling. our model assumption about inflation, are they broken? figures are around 700 chilean alan: they may be broken. dollars, which is humongous. when i was on the fed in the they always managed to find new good old easy days in the things but this time around, 1990's, these phillips curve were working very nothing is coming back. well. we made policy based on what is gone is staying gone. that is the difference this time around. forecasts from the model and the cutsu talk about made it well and it was in the first quarter, about successful. in recent years those same 40,000 -- 47,000. models updated of course for new data, but those same style of that is picking up speed rather models, have not worked very than slowing down. well. inflation is becoming in should we anticipate, deutsche bank as you mentioned, planning job cuts or 2018. lower than they say. that is a severe cause of should we anticipate that we will continue to see more cutbacks in this sector? humility or whatever you want to call it. betty: is bill gross right when >> yes. we do not hear as many he says that janet yellen is announcements because i guess it central banking the old way? is not as wide a range of banks that were doing it aired but

this, i believe we have. there still are. the soundbite of bill gross talking about this. >> the fed is living in an old those are just, the biggest banks we looked at, they are age as opposed to a new age that midsized players in the field. is reflective of high leverage. reflective of globalization. it is not going away. reflective of factors in terms it is continuing and we might hear more. of demographics that are pushing perhaps every quarter we will do a bloomberg survey among our down inflation. she refuses to a knowledge it. clients and in those surveys, betty: do agree there is a disconnect? alan: half agree. when we asked the question, typically people in the industry weo say it is not over and the world does change. the demographics, if anything -- will have more job cuts. he mentioned that at the end, there seems to be more and more pain coming ahead. are pushing in a pro cory: that is rough. inflationary direction. we will run out of labor. betty: baby boomers retiring. i also wonder how this will play alan: unless we let a lot more out come bonus season. immigrants in than anybody thinks now. >> since the crisis, bonuses the world is oh is changing. it was changing in the 1990's, have not been the same, of course. the 1980's. all my friends on wall street that is why these models get are always worried that in another year, it will not be great. updated. all constantly being updated.

there were relief years when they had been erring things were not so bad in maybe systematically rather than 2011 or something but then again, it goes back. randomly. brendan: i'm going out this carol: we have got to run. weekend to the american economic thank you so much. association conference. with our banking and finance team. a really good chance to take the temperature of what economists are confused about right now. you can go to bloomberg.com and read more of this story. every year there is a question ♪ at the conference. last year was, why is thomas piketty selling so many books and i'm not. i have often seen you on the conference. what are economists curious about? alan: i think one thing worth stating on this program is they are much less curious about what the fed is going to do in the next few months the market people are. economists look at monetary policy in a longer-term perspective. the fed is now on a gradual march toward normality. how long it will take, the exact timing, they do not view as all that important.

there are still people wondering about how much difference globalization of various sorts. the entry of china in more ways into the world economy are going to matter. there is a much longer-term focus at these meetings and with economists in general then you see in the markets. betty: thank you so much for joining us area alan blinder, princeton economist. former vice chair of the fed board of governors. brendan greeley come at joining in on the conversation. don't forget to tune in on monday for his exclusive mesterews with loretta and olivia blanchard. ♪ bring your family and friends together

betty: time now for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. the highest level in more than two months according to the consumer comfort index. eat about the buying climate since april and more positive about the national economy and their own personal finances. first-time claims jumped to their highest level since july of last week. they remained near historic lows. to 270,000.ms moved

labor department saying the increase could reflect typical swings during the holiday season. for the first time in five years, sugar prices will post an annual advance. sugar is up more than 4% and 2016 maybe even higher. producers can give the credit to el niño. suppliers hurt crops in india and thailand. stocks were down more than 7% to discover the best shows and movies with xfinity's winter watchlist. for the year. later on, we'll conspire ♪ almost 10% now. ♪ as we dream by the fire ♪ what is the outlook for the new year? the industry analyst joins us a beautiful sight, we're happy tonight ♪ now and there is one factor here ♪ watching in a winter watchlist land, ♪

♪ watching in a winter watchlist land! ♪ hiking rates. we finally got that in december. it was a big overhang. xfinity's winter watchlist. >> and i think what we have seen watch now with xfinity on demand- is investors reacted by buying your home for the best entertainment this holiday season. the utility stocks. when you're on hold, your business is on hold. what is going on is that as the fed postponed, which everyone that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. was focused on, utilities were when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. and it was aoud no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. buy on the news reaction in december. betty: do you expect that to whenever you need them. so your business can get back to business. continue in 2016? sounds like my ride's ready. >> when we look act at how don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. utility stocks performed, more to long-term interest rates, the built for business. fed tightening is often taken as a good sign for long-term interest rates, going lower in the sense the fed has a handle and the economy >> live, you're watching bloomberg television. i am betty liu. as you know, oil has dominated from running wild. that could be good for utilities. we are looking for a reasonable

the trade all year long. year for utilities. here is how nymex crude is trading right now. theyou believe we will end betty: there is growth for some of these companies. year party much at $37 oil? earlier in the session, you saw that big dip. consumer energy and southern company. >> right. we are covering pretty much all of those losses. both are big southeastern kind of like this whole seesaw session reflective of the summer utilities and are getting bigger if their proposed acquisitions go through. term -- stomach turning trade each of them bought the hometown gas utility or is it under all year long it we are likely agreement to buy the hometown to end the year with oil on pace for the biggest on record for oil. utility? those will probably be the biggest utilities in the u.s. i want to head to the market desk where julie hyman has a betty: who got hurt by gas check on some of the company movers and how we have basically prices the most? all been affected by oil here. >> some segment of the utility group, independent power who own pure merchant definitely all have because of the correlation between stocks and oil. talent,ants, these are ,elatively high level especially as we have gotten into the latter part of the year cal pyne, and nrg energy talent here. of theto look at some and one in particular got other winners and losers. apple is one of the losers down hammered this year. again today by another 1.3%. they sell power in the open it brings our year to date return to a -4% or so. market.

a rockysee it has been those prices are largely determined by gas prices. year for apple shares and it is our prices went down in a margins went down and the stocks also the first down here for the went down. since 2008. will see where the gas a lot of analysts raising demand for the prices are headed next year. >> they behave a lot with gas iphone 6. patch. they have been looking at the supply chain in asia to figure out what exactly is going on and how many are solar continues to be big. are the big utilities going through. i want to take a quick look as well at my bloomberg terminal at taking a, join them, don't fight them, approach. the analyst calls on the company buyen or by ratings -- they are joining the big solar farm area. are two separate segments ratings and the red ourselves ratings. number actually seen the in the year -- the large utilities are now pretending to argue. large solar farms are efficient. go higher here as we have gotten to the end of the year as the onwill on them and earn stock kept going down. this is the spread between the price and the average target them. if you want solar, let us run price analysts are putting on them for you during test for you. the company. betty: like what a solar city does. we are seeing that gap widen as

we see analysts still fairly target price the >> exactly the people like to have them on the roofs but utility companies say that is not the efficient way to do it. even as stocks continue to fall. .etty: let's continue quite interesting. on the outlooks for a power vonnie quinn has more from our news desk. industry next year. vonnie: iraqi troops are still let's turn to technology and a look at whether 2016 will be the working to restore order after of the tech ipo after a driving out most of the islamic state forces. earlier in the week, soldiers slow 2016. investors are looking on -- for rescued residents who had been a lot more. used by militants as human shields. . has been looking closely at and some surprising rating weather slows combat numbers here in terms of the operations. ipo's versus private -- prior the islamic state still controls pockets. years. the u.s. state department is set to release nearly 9000 pages of >> this is the slowest year hillary clinton's e-mails today. since 2011. a very slow year. the presidential candidate has been under scrutiny for using raised in of money private e-mails while secretary of state. the ipo is 1/6 of the amount on some said it would endanger her private investment at 51 run. billion.

weird year for tech >> a major shift in strategy for ipo's and a big year for private jeb bush's white house run. funding for tech companies. the former florida governor has counseled advertising in key betty: it shows a big gap the states of south carolina and between private funding for this iowa. year and, there you go. staff members from miami headquarters have been sent. incredible as you say. jeb bush is fading in the polls less than $10 billion raised in the public market. with the primary voting season just weeks away. is that likely to reverse in 2016? more than 8.5 million people have signed up for individual is one of those health plans through the situations where investors on affordable care act's government both sides hope it cannot get run shopping this year or had any worse. tovate investors would love their coverage renewed. that is according to a u.s. report which tallies 2016 see their investments go public. bankers want something to do. federal markethe everybody hopes that rebalance is a little bit. the gap is the biggest since base. the u.s. is estimated nearly 10 2000. the number in and of itself million people will be rolled -- draws shivers and silicon enrolled by the end of 2016. valley. reverse inke it will new york has tightened up the next few years. security for the annual ball betty: what are those drop in times square. indications? 6000 police officers will be crop ofrtially see a deployed in the area, about 800

more than usual. good enterprise companies that it is estimated about one million people will be there. could go public next year and we .ave seen indications betty: thank you. there are a couple of others that look like they're waiting in the wings and can go public you can now get your business next year. is the big elephant in the news 24/7 on bloomberg radio, in new york, boston, room. $62.5 billion valuation. washington, and san francisco. that it willnt not. the ceo uber said they were like ♪ an eighth grader being asked to go to prime -- to prom. we will all be watching. betty: one goes hand-in-hand with the other. they want to go public here they want the public market to be active because the private funders want an exit. if we do not see a brisk ipo market, doesn't that mean private funding is likely to dry up some more? depends if private

investors find new sources for money. wealthave been huge investments, obviously, and in the mutual funds making investments. that moneyon if keeps flowing into the private markets or not. the ipo and especially of some of the evaluations take a hit, then i think you are right. the optimism around private investments will also come down and that could hurt the environment overall. does it seem a evaluations of private companies are coming down? >> i think they will. i think it is a matter of time. in the food delivery space, still trying to raise a billion dollars. there is still that, we want to trade. there are still rounds happening . after raised on the private markets when many thought it it ishave gone public, still happening but we are

watching to see what will happen. i think everyone feels they have got to come down some. you, on the tech ipo's. much more ahead. vintage bottles. we are toasting to the good life with a bevy of levels. running out of time and money, puerto rico is about to default on $37 million of interest payments due tomorrow. those stories and much more are ahead on bloomberg television. ♪

carroll: i am in our studio. cory johnson, my cohost. we welcome everybody. we want to talk about the energy markets. a big story this year. oil headed for its biggest two-year loss on record. you can spend five minutes for stephen joins us on the phone. two days in the same space and nice to check in with you. get a rich experience either way.

talk to us about the energy market. i do not think anyone anticipated we would see oil move lower in 2015 as much as it did. what is your forecast for 2016? >> good morning and yes, we are still looking at prolonged weakness in the energy market. in north america, production of crude oil remains strong. above $9.1l well million per day. analysts thought we would be below that many barrels per day. the --ve a bank like like they do, billions and billions of dollars, they have a problem. crunch weted credit were all suspecting in the third quarter of last year has not materialized because the banks have not pulled back the credit

producershence the are still producing. that is here in north america. we have a globe, print -- a price war between saudi arabia and iran. they are now competing for market share in the largest growth market, which is in asia. you look at asia, china is devaluing its currency, cutting interest rate and dumping its industrial commodities onto the market. something is clearly wrong with china. is flirting with a fifth recession since 2008. you look at the scenario globally in 2016 where? market share in a market where betty: i am betty liu. demand is challenged. let's head back to the markets after julie hyman. one thing really active this corey: -- cory: yes in europe, year was biotech. couple things to mention to one of them was a tiny

we are seeing a slowing economy ina little bit of a slowdown company, and israeli-based company based here in the u.s. china. as well. up 50% after the fda granted its nonetheless, we see dramatically falling oil prices. orphan drug status for one of its treatments for -- that means be careful.ill it has patent protection for seven years. it is not just the pullback in the stock is having its egg us in day surge since 2011 oil prices. it is the pullback in every single industrial commodity out there. israeli trading. also still following a couple of the industrial stories from earlier in the week. metal complex, we're seeing lows remember a company that came out we have not seen as the great recession. with negative results for one of its drugs. 81% and islunged to keep in mind commodity prices do not drive the economy. economy drives commodity prices. coming back today and it came back a little bit over the past several days. we see growing surpluses today in particular, it is rising. regardless of demand and we see -- steve: said it prices fall not just in oil but in copper, and so forth. had taken -- clearly something is wrong here. following this week after a an looking at china dumping its investigation into the company. this is something i pointed out excess around the globe, looking earlier in the week. -- crisisugee prices i wanted to look at while tech

stocks. using the nasdaq biotech index, in europe, that is having the we had a midyear drama on economic growth surrounding questions over drug pricing. as we saw in the early 1990's there were questions about when western europe had to valuations of the companies. incorporate all of the slough we saw a plunge in biotech from these 2 -- stocks. the s&p 500 down here also saw that rate but one not quite as saying, it you are is more of a demand issue, a .ramatic even though it was global economy issue than it is it paled in comparison. the nasdaq -- file text index a supply issue. we talk about there being two fundamentals at way. was like it will finish 12% a lot of supply and the lack of while the s&p 500 is little changed. demand. you are saying the bigger story is demand, which makes me nervous that maybe we do not have such a clear understanding left evaluations are still lofty. the price to earnings ratio of the index is nearly 50 compared of the picture and how bad it to about 17.5 for the s&p 500. really is. stephen: absolutely. all that concern about valuations sold off. nalley question how long the but they are still high. united states can do it by itself. with what we have seen with pmi numbers, durable good numbers, betty: thank you so much. let's check in on first reviews

now at this hour. courtney has more from the new desk. the u.s. industrial complex has been in recession for the past year. courtney: we had to the middle east. the u.s. is about to propose confident inly sanctions on companies and people involved with iran's that statement and i am also ballistics program. confident in the statement that -- if we if we him the rainy and president ordered -- notense minister -- at our trading partner saying anything else. there is no word just who the u.s. will target with sanctions. carol you agree with the concern russia has begun a major there would be a u.s. monetization of its navy. recession. russia will expand deployments of its most sophisticated cruise stephen: absolutely. be used forit can been in itwe have tax on land and sea. officials say it will profoundly for well over a year and i have change the russian navy's been saying that ever since the ability to destroy targets. industrials crash. germans toel urging now over the past three or four we are on the cusp. reject nationalists who have hate in their hearts toward if we are not in it already, refugee's. we're certainly on our way in the german chancellor said the united states. coping with the refugee crisis will take time, effort, and cory: as we track what is going on with oil and try to imagine money. she signaled she will use

what is going on, is this still germany's economic power to -- use crisis as -- to an the most important number to he advantage. track of? it still has not totally collapsed. stephen: the recounts are not a because of the earlier this week, soldiers rescued residents used by militants as human shields. avent of shale and productivity they are now removing bombs and gains. we get more with less. debris from the city center. what we have to look at is, the islamic state still controls pockets. again, still production. the state department is set to release nearly 9000 pages of looking at recounts itself has hillary clinton's e-mails today. been the most dangerous aspect the presidential candidate has when accounts in oil been under scrutiny for using the private e-mail server while secretary of state. began to grow. it appeared at one point the we did back then was the controversy might endanger her white house run. clinton appears to be rebounding. absolute impact we're seeing. global news 24 hours a day regardless of the significant powered by nearly 150 news pullback we have seen in the past year, crude oil production bureaus around the world. betty? barely budged. still to come, we will we came in at $9.2 million last week. talk to the ceo who pays you

just $200,000 off, but we thousands of dollars to quit. you heard that right. have been holding and we will continue to hold because the banks have to allow the north crude oil production to continue because they need cash regardless of where we are right now. we have about 40 ♪ seconds here. crude oil is down 31% this year. gas down 20% this year. investorsur advice to when it comes to the energy complex? stephen: the limited partnerships on the refinery. the refinery right now are barrel.5 per they are making tremendous margins right now, hence why crude oil demand is very strong right now but supplies are building. is -- thelike the refineries and often go -- and

also midstream. these are the guys moving the product. i do not like the upstream. they will still be challenged in the first months of the year. cory: interesting stuff. carol: exactly. .tephen joining us you have got crude oil just up slightly. ♪

>> we welcome everybody from bloomberg tv. a municipal bond market. an interesting story, a bloomberg exclusive. an unprecedented fifth straight year, investors saw more bonds leaving the municipal bond market then sold by states and municipalities. our next guest knows an awful lot about the bond market. he is president and chief executive officer of wealth management and joins us from texas. interesting to hear that.

we are seeing, you know, less issuance, if you will. is that something you anticipate will continue into 2016 and our ♪ governments in better shape that they do not need to do this? >> yes. by the way, you look lovely and i am watching on television at the same time we are speaking. betty: welcome back. it is an unprecedented fifth straight year. leaving thew more time for a look at some of the other big business stories in the news right now. market. you may remember when i was on a consumer confidence is up last week for the highest level in few weeks ago and we talked about what we had at the end of more than two months according the year. to the bloomberg consumer demand for inflation. comfort index. shopping for the it is exactly what is happening. it will happen through today. holidays were more upbeat about the buying climate and the national economy and their on january 4, there will be two personal finances. there was a report of the british mobilephone company is in merger talks with john malone one billion or more deals. we will start to see a little liberty global. bit of supply, but not much. we do not expect next year's malone instigated the discussions and according to the supply to be much more than papers, investors have been encouraging economies to pursue. about 14% higher than this year microsoft warned users of e-mail and everyone is gobbling up this

year. and cloud services a government-backed hacker has targeted them. cory: where will we see those? they are to tell users they believe the account has been compromised by a third party. florida and a place in texas. there is evidence the florida deal is 1.3 billion. state-sponsored a task in the morse -- more significant than and someplace in texas, about 1 those of ordinary criminal. billion and change. but let's take a look at rates and where they are in the that is your bloomberg update. market. let's go to abigail doolittle i love the 30 year and you know that. live at the nasdaq with the latest on the markets as we have if you're going to buy municipal bonds, you might as well get turned lower in the s&p for the paid. year. for the year, bonds did about a abigail: yes. the big story is the fact the 3.5% return. nasdaq composite index and the you might say that does not sound like much. nasdaq 100 are both positive for carol: taken this environment. the year relative to the s&p and >> the dow was down 1.8 and the s&p is down .3 and the nasdaq is dow, both down a bit. up six. if you take out netflix and is up 7% one index amazon and a few others, it the year. the 100 is up nearly 10%. would be flat to down. down transport down 17%. words, moster --te a bit of outperforming people's return was negative. >> exactly. it turned out to be your safest outperforming here the nasdaq. we go, the beginning -- big

and best investment for the year. internet companies, they all the 3%% return on top of have outperformed the broader return. >> if you live in new york, they take everything. i live in texas. no city or state there and that is why live there. 30 year benchmark to date, two .9. california, where you live, cory. 3.5. 3.9 one. texas where i live, 3.1. illinois, 4.7. rico, 9.06. sit with me for puerto rico. is that an area you want to be? a default of some kind. what are you anticipating and how do you play it, or do you?

>> we know the sales tax revenues, we know it is a separate revenue source that puerto rico cannot invade. they said that yesterday. it was said yesterday, it is a separate revenue service. they do not even get it. it automatically goes to the bank of new york. they will be fine. the puerto rican powers are in the middle of having a deal done. it looks like it will probably be a 15% hit with principal and something like that in the exchange of coupons, to be announced. the rest of the stuff, it is hard to say. sectors of their economy are doing well or not doing well and if you look at their bonds, you have got highways and water and sewers. it is hard to know. hard to know. but, here is a question. illinois rather have

at a 470 or puerto rico at a 906, or, i don't know. let's take california at 305. how much risk would you be willing to take on to enhance your return by using those two or three states? maybe, arto rico aside very new case, is there truly a risk of default? we have seen it so rarely in modern times. minus puerto rico, it is not much of a risk. worldaid the end of the was supposed to happen many 2009,ago, i think 2008 or and i sent her a thank you card, because really, we were able to buy things. we just bought a lot of stuff and two or three months later, the market went, what is she talking about?

nothing that happened. >> a useless product because these things never actually default. there are so many backdrops. the city might be backed up by accounting and they are backed up by the state and the state is backed up by the federal government. likely next to nothing. >> that is true except lettuce look at what is going on in alaska. alaska's oil revenue has dropped, i don't know, a lot. it is a huge amount. alaska will not be passing out checks this year and they may have to have a state income tax for the first time in 30 years. they will still make payments on their bonds. there is a reserve funds and bank trustees who look after this and there is always a reserve fund for a specific point in time.

if your credit is good enough coming refinance. maybe it is a 30 year bond, maybe 10 years and you call it, bondou refinance with a 3% for 12 or 15 years and you go from, he -- you know what i'm saying. so all the sudden, you do not need as much revenue to cover that. carol: 20 seconds here. college debt. what are your concerns, quickly. >> there are two things. you owing money for your college education, and other things, colleges have financed brick-and-mortar using municipal bonds. a lot of these small colleges are not making it and starting to default on bonds. it is not a good thing. carol: the good thing is checking in with you. thank you for carving in some

time for us. happy new year's. charles,alking to based in texas. my parents brought me up well. thank you very much. tv.mberg on radio and carol massar and cory johnson. ♪

betty: good morning and welcome back. time now for the bloomberg

business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. mortgage rates are up last week for the first time in five months. the 30 or mortgage went over 4%. the fed's's decision to raise rates just before the start of the peak selling season. warren buffett bought another newspaper. berkshire hathaway in fredericksburg, virginia. berkshire owns more than two dozen newspapers. the price of the hamburger will likely get cheaper according to a key gauge, the ground up meat used in a burger, beef trimmings, so to speak. they fell to a 10 year low this week. farmers stuffed their cattle with cheap grain. don't you want a burger now? that is your bloomberg business update. movesget a check on stock

. abigail has more from the nasdaq. abigail: we are starting off the lows here on the nasdaq. down .9%, now down .4%. it appears at this moment we are 45,000 onclose below the year. turning back to the day, a source of weakness is apple, the biggest point influence on the index. shares are down, trading down for the second day in a row on news apple paid 318 million euros to settle in time tax claim even though the company in the past said it does not use tax gimmicks. the real damage has been done all month. shares are down more than 10% on the negative commentary from analysts talking about the possibility of week iphone demand in 25th in. estimates have been cut an apple has diverged significantly with the composite index. thee is down 4% and for

first time since 2008, apple is set to close down the year. back to you. right.all thank you. imagine leaving your job, and your soon to be former boss giving you 10 grand, no strings attached, as a parting gift just for working at the company? morgan is the founder and ceo of a lingerie company that launched in 2012. he sees this selective reward as and anntive to work hard indication of the company's positive culture. he joins us now via skype. we are all scratching our heads. tell us you would give $10,000 to an employee to leave. how did you come up with this? >> you have to look at the whole image. we are now one of the fastest-growing companies in america.

revenues, crazy margins at every level. we reward the employees for their great work that they put in the daily job. as a startup, they will not see anything related to stock until benefits. exit i think it makes total sense to reward them along the way for their work. these people have been here for a while. have a special project in mind. it is not money they give away for nothing. starting in somewhere else. it was a way to say congratulations and thank you. it is a way to show current members of the company to reward hard work and loyalty. eddie: what about rewarding the employees that stay with you on the journey?

are they rewarded in a special way? >> yes. people have end-of-the-year bonuses and stock options. some is enough to give value to everyone who contributed to what matters is to give everyone fairly, up into what they have done. theyis just the fair share earned over the years. betty: how are you determining who gets this? >> it is the same way i would say in a typical company, you are at bonuses. meaning, at the same time performance that can be measured quantitatively, and also over all managerial development. betty: ok. what is the internal reaction? it reminds me of another company's ceo, gravity, the ceo had decided he would cut his own pay and make everybody at the company earned i think $70,000

per year. instead, it really generated more resentment within the company for people who felt they were putting a lot into the company and not getting rewarded the same as others. are you worried about that discontent? >> i remember that story. i think it has been handled overall with poor results. no one feels they do not have really what they deserve. happy for other people and think maybe this is what will happen to them. they put a lot of hard work into the company. deciding to raise the salary of everyone regardless of their performance is really what happens to gravity. they only reward people based on what they achieve. this is part of an overall package and the main difference. we're actually amazingly performing.

if we can afford to do it, why not? betty: thank you so much. founder and ceo. time now to toast the good life because champagne is back. midnight.st near starting our day. popularity after a brief hiatus following an economic downturn. it was more than 19 million bottles of champagne, up 1.3 million from the year before. champagne made come back and is a lot more competition. atning me is a luxury editor bloomberg pursuit, the beverage director, gabrielle, a top-rated restaurant here in midtown. is champagne making a comeback? chris: it totally is. ever since the economic downturn, there was a hiatus on expensive wines but it has really come back and as it has,

other sparkling wines have really come back even more or growing to a point where they have not even seen it before. 200 16 million bottles of sparkling lights are consumed in the united states, last year. that is a lot. is a growthhere because there is a need for celebrations. really grown the market and people are really opening up a little more to the product itself. time.for any really relaxing, champagne. betty: what are the ones you recommend? styles.e toasty is veryeat because it approachable. i love the toasty style. betty: what are you drink you tonight? >> there will be a few bottles open.

an established brand here. magnums, all formats and all brands. >> are you excited about some of the smaller growers coming out of champagne? >> definitely always have been. you find them a little more in stores. it is becoming a little more approachable. they: what are some of trends for the year in wine and champagne? interesting things going on with sparkling lights is from the south of england. it is because the climate is getting a little warmer and this area you never would think of is actually getting into an some of the champagne houses in france are buying wineries there. i do not know what you think of sparkling lights coming out of england, if you have them. >> i have tried a few. i think the approach is a little

more on the sweet side somehow. is bigger, the style is very close to champagne. i think they have their own identity in a way and there are with thosewinemakers wineries. i think it is great. >> the other thing going on is national -- natural wines. more in fine wine bars as well. betty: thank you. we will be celebrating with our wine and champagne. happy new year. "bloomberg markets" continues. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.

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here is what we are watching this hour. foil about to close out 2015 below $40 a barrel. we will take a look at how low crude prices could go in the year ahead. then running out of time and money -- puerto rico about to default on payments due tomorrow. and we look at the winners and losers in technology and media. first, we want to get a check on are already inwe the final day of the trading year. julie: earlier, it looked like it was in