tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg January 2, 2016 1:00pm-2:01pm EST
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♪ stephanie: coming up on "bloomberg best," -- the business stories that shaped the year of 2015. market makers and more, we will take a look back at the years top headlines. >> the fed basically is living in an old age. >> we also hear from some of 2015's biggest newsmakers. >> the natural forces of a market economy and capitalism will drive that disparity, unless government does something to help. stephanie: time to wrap up the year that was and look forward to the year that is to come. it is all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪
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stephanie: hello, i'm stephanie ruhle. welcome to a special year in review edition of "bloomberg best." we look back at the most important interviews, analysis from 2015. the year began with encouraging signs of strength in the u.s. economy and signals that six years after the financial crisis, the federal reserve was finally prepared to raise rates. >> today's modification of our guidance should not be interpreted to mean that we had decided on the timing of that increase. in other words, just because we removed the word patient from the statement does not mean that we are going to be inpatient. -- impatient. >> janet yellen did not say when they would raise interest rates. they may have deleted patient from the actual language of the statement, but it certainly was not deleted from their modus operandi.
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this is a fed that will be very slow to raise rates and janet yellen sent a signal to the financial markets, which they heard loud and clear based on market reaction, not the dollar matters. while the fed does not like to talk about the exchange rate, the dollar is important for the inflation trend in the u.s., which is this inflationary right now, and it also matters for economic momentum. >> the most important thing she said is that they will not raise rates until they are confident inflation is moving back in the direction of the 2% target. at the same time, they admitted they had missed their forecast. inflation would be about half of what they projected as early as december. at this point, they are waiting for inflation to go up, they are not saying when that will happen. it will be longer -- it will be lower for longer that resulted in a forecast change policy pad. they will not raise rates as much and not as fast. that is what the markets are
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taking away from today. stephanie: watching the fed was a regular pastime in 2015. counting the megamergers was another. in a record year for mergers and acquisitions, consolidation and regulations were a constant topic of conversation. >> it is a deal put together by warren buffett and 3g capital. they orchestrated a merger between kraft foods and heinz, creating the third largest food and beverage company in north america. >> your take on the deal? >> number one, it's fascinating. it is not an acquisition but a merger. it is not what people mostly associate with private equity. the 3g model is a very different model of private equity. in some ways, if i could use an expression, it is old wine in new bottles, this is repackaging food in new configurations. more importantly, in new
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configurations, in terms of types of capital for ownership purposes. >> how much it did buffett make in the deal, how much in the -- is the combined company worth? >> it's difficult to find out an exact value and everyone has been running numbers on it. we think the transaction value is around the $15 billion mark. that is what we are putting on it right now. from what we understand, it came together phenomenally quickly. one of the things that was holding it up, how much is this worth to kraft shareholders? they are taking a stake in what was a private company, becoming a bigger public company but nobody knows what the shares of the combined company will trade at. >> comcast has terminated its proposed acquisition of time warner cable. it announced this morning that its merger agreement with time warner cable, it's transaction agreement with charter communications has been
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terminated. brian roberts saying, we move on. >> when it was first put together, it was inevitable that the deal would go through. >> i think when it first happened, because comcast and charter were talking to each other to split up time warner cable, then comcast but the -- bought the whole thing. the initial thought was, are there going to be regulatory concerns? people thought about it and said, probably not. this will probably get through, and then the tide turns. then we had title ii regulation, pushback from silicon valley, some lawmakers came out, and then the politics of it shifted where the doj and the sec said that this would give comcast too too much broadband power. >> together, they would have had tremendous power over the market for broadband. they would have had that huge power over programmers and would have been able to stop trends in the cable industry that are
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actually promising more competition. >> are regulators not looking at the whole picture? are regulators missing the joke? >> regulators may purely they represent consumers, and in some cases, they may be right, but there are a lot of constituents who are lobbying as well. whether it be silicon valley types, who think they are speaking for consumers. >> the biggest takeover in the tv industry, charter communications agreeing to buy time warner cable and also bright house networks. the price for time warner cable is $100 cash and more than half a share per share of time warner cable and that would value the deal at $78.7 billion. >> we already know tom wheeler called the heads of these two companies, the head of the fcc,
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and said just because we rejected comcast time warner does not mean that we will reject all deals. that is a pretty strong signal that this will go through. >> i am thunderstruck by the valuations. $195.71. 40% equity, 60% debt. 5.5 times debt to equity. this is like an old style john malone transaction. this is like back in our youth, chris? >> absolutely, this is the culmination of two years of effort from john malone. this started in 2013 when john announced charter as its horizontal acquisition machine. >> i want to go to d.c. where drew armstrong is there. officially, the pfizer-allergan deal has been inked. this combined enterprise is worth over $160 billion. >> this is going to create the largest pharmaceutical company
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in the world. we just got this release about a minute ago. allergan shareholders will get 11.3 pfizer shares for every share they hold. pfizer is moving to dublin. the only thing that is changing is the last three letters. it will be pfizer plc, not inc. this deal is absolutely enormous. >> it seems that we are spending a lot of productive energy figuring out how to avoid taxes and deal with financial issues and less productive energy on doing when these companies are meant to do, which is solving our biotech issues. >> that isn't changing anytime soon. >> i would imagine congress will see some backlash from it. i would imagine there is some regulatory changes coming from all this. >> the story we have been anticipating for three days, that is the dow chemical dupont merger. they will combine creating a
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$130 billion behemoth, the largest merger ever in that industry. with me now is a dow chemical ceo and the dupont chairman and ceo. welcome. please explain the fundamental underlying rationale behind the merger. >> listen maybe it was a moment , in time where this could happen, but both of our companies, we have known for a long time strategically, fit together. it just so happened that our stocks were basically trading on top of each other from a market cap standpoint. we could do a very tax efficient transaction to our shareholders by merging first, capturing all the synergies and then doing , a three-way split up. it's very efficient from that standpoint. what ended up happening is we did not create the world's leading ag company out of this, but we get to create a specialty company that will trade at a
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nice multiple with high growth businesses in it. and then andrew in the dow business gets the parts of two part that always fit with his business. so we strategically created , three of the kind of perfect platforms that fit together, and then all the synergies on top of it. so it was a pretty incredible , opportunity for both our companies. >> i would say on balance, the consensus is this will get through. >> he gave help from obama? he has been good friends of obama. >> are you saying he greased the wheels before hand? [laughter] no, i am stating it. >> if you speak to our people and bloomberg intelligence, they think it will get through. the companies will have to offload some assets. it will not be smooth, it will take a long time. stephanie: coming up on our "bloomberg best," u.s. year in
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>> in our ongoing attempt to understand this trump phenomenon, we partnered with our colleagues at purple strategies and did a focus group in new hampshire. >> when you refer to some illegal immigrants as rapists, does that bother people? >> doesn't bother me. >> what would a trump presidency look like? >> classy. i think he would bring a lot of companies back. >> i look forward to it.
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>> he has interesting things every day. >> what, if anything, will pierce his teflon? >> trump is parlaying a sense of anger and anxiety, certainly a healthy dose of racism in what he's doing. >> donald trump is out at nbc. >> a normal candidate would be in trouble with the stuff but i don't think he will be. >> mark asks trump about the suggestion that john mccain is no war hero. >> will trump survive, will he thrive, or will he take a dive from the slab? >> someone who liked him before, this will not turn them off. you can take the donald of your shelves but you cannot take him , off of us. stephanie: welcome back to "bloomberg best" year in review. google took a strategic step forward by creating a holding company, alphabet. volkswagen's u.s. business took a huge step backwards in the wake of an emissions scandal. both story sparked plenty of debate and analysis on bloomberg television.
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♪ >> take me inside the minds. why are they doing this? >> they are here to build a technology company that can change people's lives. i think that they are better at that than running day-to-day operations. >> is this a surprise or did you expect some kind of move like this? >> i was certainly surprised in how it happened, but in hindsight it's easy to see the brilliance of it. google was being typecast as just a search engine company. it has been much more with gmail, maps, so on and so forth. google is a personal services company. and to maximize the value, it needs to be able to concentrate on that. the other thing that larry page and sergey brin are doing, like
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cars and biomedical research, it is hard to find a connection there. >> tom why do you think , investors seem to like the move so much today? >> the one word you see running through all the research is transparency. we are going to get more detail on how google is spending its money, where the profit and sales are coming from, where the expenses piling up? >> wall street in general has been very excited about all of these transformational opportunities that are coming up in terms of venture backed companies. last year, two years, tens of billions going from public markets to private markets. here theoretically in google, , alphabet, wall street has a way to participate in some of these -- way to participate in some of these things that have longer-term payouts. >> also not participate in things that they think our moon shots. >> that's right. and the company now has flexibility to hire people,
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world-class ceos for the various emerging businesses, keeping it separate from google, and allows them much more financing capability for google, non-google things, etc. >> volkswagen is full on in crisis mode. here is what the ceo martin winterkorn said, putting out a statement on sunday. he said i am deeply sorry that , we have broken the trust of our customers and the public. we will respond fully with the -- we will cooperate for late with the responsible agencies with transparency and urgency to completely establish the facts that this case of 2015 diesel fuel vehicles sold in the states as well as preowned. >> what is so damning is this was deliberate, it was not an oversight. >> that's right. it is not like, whether you look at the gm ignition switch or the problem that toyota had with their unintended acceleration -- something did not go right, it takes time to figure it out. that is not what happened here.
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somebody had to decide that it would be better to put in this software that would cheat the testing system, than to actually live up to the rules of the clean air act. so there are going to be , repercussions. the question is how high it goes, who knew, who approved it, who made these decisions? >> we have 27 states attorneys generals, potential criminal liabilities, as well as epa fines and that is just one and that is just one jurisdiction. , tom can name all 193 countries in the eu with regulatory standards when it comes to automobiles. i can't. i suspect it is in the mid-50, 60's, maybe even 100 range. >> obviously, a heroic problem, but this is a company that has amazing consumer support. not this week, not this month,
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but ongoing, they make terrific products. this will work its way through the legal system in some time, and it just will be a very unfortunate time for their securities. >> people love them, they are great cars, and then they find out the executives are cheaters. >> to steve's point, a volkswagen does not have as big a market share as it does around the world. the second-largest maker of cars around the world. it is huge in china. they are a huge maker of cars and they do have brand loyalty and affection. there will be a price to pay. this will be a bit like bp, where they will have to pay, but i don't think the company will go out of existence. i think there will be an enormous cost to security holders, equity holders, stockholders, and so forth. stephanie: through it all, the fed kept inching toward a rate hike.
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finally, in mid-december janet , yellen put an end to the error -- era of zero. ms. yellen. earlier today, the federal open market committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by one quarter percentage point, bringing it to one quarter cap one half percent. this action marks the end of an extraordinary seven-year period during which the federal funds rate was held near zero to support the recovery of the economy from the worst financial crisis in recession since the great depression. >> i think she nailed it. i think she was -- it was like not too hot, not too cold, right down the center. the most important thing, what she gave the market was clarity. i think the opportunity missed in september while the markets were so unsettled, because we had no clarity on their actions. in this case, they really
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expressed exactly what they're looking for, how they are looking at it, the forecast going forward. once again, she will say we are data dependent on the course going forward, but she gave such great clarity, the marketplace can be calm, and the marketplace can understand looking at the numbers how the fed will operate. bill: janet yellen today, in the press conference, today suggested to me a rather hawkish stance. she is definitely not thoroughly modern janet. she reflects a fed and fed model that if the sizes transitory as opposed to structural factors and looks at short legs in monetary policy. i think the fed is basically living in an old age, as opposed to a new age, that is reflective of high leverage, reflective of globalization, reflective of factors in terms of demographics
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>> we have an enormously rich economy. well over 50,000 gdp per capita. it is six times in real terms what it was when i was born. imagine that, one person's lifetime. it blows your mind. if you would tell my parents in 1930 when i was born that this would be this amount of poverty in a country like this, they would be laughing. >> and it is a growing disparity. >> it needs to be addressed. the natural forces of a market economy and capitalism will drive that disparity, unless government does things to help, and government has done things to help over the years but need to do more. the earned income tax credit. >> instead of increasing minimum wage. wage,reasing minimum italy's people more unemployed. but, the real thing people need
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if you are poor if not a higher minimum wage. they need money. [laughter] if they're willing to work, the earned income tax credit is the way to go. >> we have spoken to talk at execs want to advertise to developing markets, very excited about the potential to advertise to people through internet.org. how does that benefit users? mark i'm not sure if that is a : big part of the solution in the near term, to be honest. we have to work out a model with i think, operators and governments and local partners that is profitable for them, so that way they can continue to , grow. what we found in these early countries that we have worked in -- indonesia, philippines, zambia, kenya -- is you offer a little bit of the internet for free and more people start using data and more people access the internet and can use these tools, but also people start paying for data once they understand what they would use the internet for.
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people understand why he would want to pay for data and these operators end up making more money and it ends up being more profitable, and then they can take that money to reinvest it to build a better internet infrastructure for everybody. >> in some ways we are in a bubble, in some ways we are not. inasmuch as we are competent to the key thing though is be a private market bubble. that does not have as much public market impact, so i think it is not something, when you hearken back to 2000, 2001, you worry about quite as much. >> so we are in a bubble in the private market, but not in the public markets? >> twitter is a company that has all kinds of opportunity. i think there are all kinds of things that can be done better and i'm really impressed with how jack has jumped on top of this, but it is such a strong underlying asset, the ability to improve the product. jack is on top of it. the ability to streamline the cost structure, jack is on top of it. the ability to continue to drive
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monetization, jack is there. >> but he has been there all the , time, he is the ceo now, but he is a cofounder, has been on the board. my wing day -- i wouldn't they been doing this all the time? >> there is a difference between being on the board and running the place. believe me, i understand that well. boards do not run things, ceos do. it is incredibly different being a ceo than a board member. bill: i define success differently now than five or 10 years ago. success, these days, is still performance. i'm still obsessed with that, but it is also extending the benefits to other parts of the world. erik: why don't you talk more -- or haven't you -- talked more about your philanthropy?
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bill: i try to keep it quiet. not that there is anything wrong with this, but we are not the type to attend functions, parties, give galas. -- and galas. we like to work underneath, so to speak. erik: i'm going to ask you what may be a crass question, so forgive me. how much money have you given away? bill: probably 600 to $700 million. $600 millionn -- to you talk about new york's $700 million. favorite billionaires, when you get -- would you want to get into government? >> i am on a lot of lists i don't deserve to be on. >> would you like to get into government? >> you know something? you know i have a great job, and , the job has with it a lot of interaction with terrific people. i have a lot of influence and a lot of participation in the forces that are helping to shape the economy.
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i love that, can you get that same satisfaction from government? i think mike has been successful in both areas and i i bet he had a better influence, obviously, through his position in >> and i think back, just small things. changing the rules on smoking. how may lives are saved by that. people do not talk about that. i think it would be attractive thing to do. a very unattractive place to get to. >> you're ready to be president from day one. >> look, obama had no experience. i've always said talent is more important than experience. i do not think obama as a president is a talented person. he should never have been in this position. he had no experience. it is not his thing. no democrats and congressman who have hardly even seen him and
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have even met him. he does not work the system. that is why he signed executive orders on the time. you can i get is on people to go long. >> standing up for donald trump. why? he is a friend. friends are important. i've known him for a very long time. friendships you and your over long amounts of time. i've played a lot of golf with him. how much are they be on his team then be against him. >> there it is again. how good is that? >> help me understand. moment, how in this do you handle the pressure and not choke? you could say you get meditation. how do you handle it? you handle it. there are breathing techniques that help. ultimately, you really have to focus on the whole. don't look at the scoreboard.
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it does not matter. the point is you have to get the read. you have to pretend like you are hitting another putt. it is easier said than done. start to see some going. there's great visualization you can take from that. >> how long you look at the whole? >> the weird technique idea is short range. i'll had a very specific point on the front of the whole. look. it is not the worst idea. ♪
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bloomberg traveled the world to cover those stories. in 2015, we were on the scene. >> what do you think of today's announcement? >> i think it was very much expected. after we had the court case in brussels 10 days ago, except the ecb in motion that they would be allowed to do this. before that, it was a legal issue and they were allowed to do this. i think we have seen over the last two years that you have to trust in mario and i think mario draghi got lucky was trying. i think the market -- we have seen the market should not doubt mario draghi. he has been able to pull this through. >> i am here with danny meyer and randy, and it has been a big day. the stock is up already at $47.
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congratulations. >> thank you and great to see you. betty: i know you will use these proceeds to expand the 400 stores, so where will they be? >> we talked about the really good plan about 10 a year here in the united states. we will deepen our roots and current market throughout the east coast, chicago and we just launched in las vegas a few weeks ago and later, we are launching in texas. betty: how do you keep it clean as you expand? >> in addition to focusing on quality, we focus on culture, how does it feel for your community went to shake shack opens in your community, and that is the governor on our growth. >> yesterday, right here in front of parliament, we had a sizable representation of the note forces, the people aligned with the government and who want to eject the bailout conditions, european creditors, impose on
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this country in exchange for new credit. what could be expect from the the demonstrations tonight? >> i do expect the bigger administration. i think there is a silent majority within greece which is beginning to express itself and will send a clear message. by voting yes, the yes vote basically signifies that they want to stay in the eurozone and not to jeopardize becoming a full member of the european union. erik: david is in athens. last night, it got a little violent in the main square in front of parliament. tear gas was fired, a truck was set on fire. toss with the mood on the ground -- tell us what the mood on the ground is like.
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everybody has been talking about the great financing and that the banks have been closed for several weeks and how difficult that has been for everybody. i was talking with an economic analyst a couple of minutes ago, and he was saying that there is a chance the banks could open early next week and i know having talked to so many people here that bad is such a big deal and everybody is looking forward to it. >> last night, and this morning, what is the new reality that alexis tsipras will go up to? missing 32 members of his own party. >> 32 members did not vote for this and six others abstained. we had heard from ministers from those who opposed it saying they would be willing to resign if they were asked, so prime -- so the prime minister is looking at the future of his, how it will be reshuffled and with the government, overall, will look like going forward. are we going to happen national unity people? a minority government? these are questions you will have to wrestle with. >> you blew through last year's record in half the time, but i
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am curious, how does this compare to a typical the -- day at alibaba? >> compared to the typical day? >> right, we are looking at billions, but what does it look like on wednesday? >> i think we have close to one billion something, yes, one billion or more, but this thing we have been preparing for more than three months. and preparing for the technology, the supplies, buyers, promotions and all those things. we think this is a unique day. it is the day that we want all the manufacturers, all the shopowners to be thankful to the consumers and for them to have a
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wonderful day, so it is special. business wise, maybe not a big difference, but for the events themselves, the meaning, it is getting such excitement in china. >> this morning, i went west of the city to see what the commute was like. the trains are packed, starting at 6:45 this morning, i did talk to people and they said there was not quite as much traffic on the trains is normal, but people have to get to the city. they said because they had to work and they have to continue. erik: i saw on friday, the conservative rival, did not waste much time and when not -- before coming out with strong statements. i understand the election is coming up. how does this play out with immigration?
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brendan: well, you know, it is not necessarily going to be to the benefit. we heard from the french senator earlier this morning who said they were eating good bread and it will work out good for her -- but after the attacks, she was not included in the national unity and her support did not change. it stayed at the stable 30%, so the question is how long can the other parties, far right, center right, wait until they say something about how the president is handling this. stephanie: 2015 was an active year for activist investors. we will take a look back at some of their activity. ♪
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investors and their effect on companies and we also talked to them about why they do what they do. >> what do you think the value is of activism right now? >> i think it is important. i think the balance of power has shifted back to the owners of the business in a very dramatic way. i think in the last 10 years, as a result of the growth of shareholder activism. stephanie: what about the argument that corporate ceos are not making responsible long-term decisions because they are scared and saying, i hope he'll -- ackman does not call? >> the kind of changes we propose are not short-term changes for value. they are two fundamentally improve the business.
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their long-term changes. there are some shareholder activists that push for large buybacks and that how a short-term benefit and could beat long-term detrimental, but most that i know, you look at nelson phelps and the kind of changes at dupont, these are long-term. howard hughes, pacific, other companies, they are changes for the benefit over long-term. i think management should be able to ignore short-term driven that causes movement in the stock, but the biggest fear that the ceo has is that if they are underperforming, likely in -- an activist will show up for long-term reasons. >> where the two worst things in about business? number one, the separation of management firm ownership, soap managers can do well when owners are do not, and number two, and excessive emphasis on the short term. the activist is great when they go in and put the pressure on
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the managers who work for the owners and to improve the efficacy of the company. >> the top investors in the world are announcing their big bets at this year's conference in new york city. dan love took the stage earlier today and spoke about the farm. let's head over to stephanie ruhle. she is at the conference. what was your big take away? stephanie: remember, the investment conference is off the record when the guy like dan speaks somehow and people get to hear. he led with the joke. people in the market, especially as it relates to tech investing, has said so much money has gone to the valley and there is a fear missing out. -- fear of missing out. i have got to get in the, well, dan says we are starting to see a crack in tech evaluations. there is the fear of getting the
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hose. behind them at something that does not make sense. when uber has to clear $5 million, which is what it would, how is that going to make money? he is not saying the bubble is person, but we are seeing a crack. the firms are slowing down. vonnie: nelson tells has taken a $2 million stake in general election -- and general electric. it is now one of ge's top 10 shareholders. he agrees with ge's decision to sell the majority of their finance arms. they want ge to do more cost-cutting and he says jay -- ge could take on $20 billion in debt and repurchase the share. betty: nelson's targets seem to get bigger and bigger, right? what does he want? >> you can't really get much in bigger after ge. i think what he once is the -- wants is the playbook is pretty much the same, improve the operations, get more sales growth, put more leverage on the
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balance sheet and getting the cash flow out of the company and back to the shareholders. i think that is the basic playbook he is doing with ge. betty: how do you think they will respond? joel: i don't think the playbook is a lot different. i think having an activist that -- there holds ge under the fire a little bit more. matt: carl icon has put out a letter saying he owns a large stake in aig and he is urging the company to separate their life and mortgage insurance units. he says if they do so, aig could trade over $100 a share, but carl icahn is one of these investors who has a history of telling executives to do something, the initially say -- they init himially balk saying he doesn't know what he is talking about and then one year later or six months later, the shares do indeed rise.
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>> how would you like to be the ceo of aig? you are already dealing with greenberg and i have to deal with carl icahn. stephanie: does this surprise you that activist investing is the inve himstor right now? >> activist investor i would say it's 75% of the time are better. just pulling with them. stephanie: a good one. >> what is a bad one? stephanie: one who fails and is -- does not know how it should work. we have seen bill ackman fail in jcpenney. erik: what about companies like you chesapeake? if you are the original vader, who is the activist? >> i end up having to run a company again.
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♪ stephanie: welcome back to "bloomberg best." let's close this year in review with a look ahead to 2016. predictions, we have got plenty. >> are you going to ask me questions or what? in -- >> the most powerful modern rocket and the world will barge into space for the first time and it will be launched by spacex. >> virtual reality headsets will be relegated to the world of the defense.
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>> i think volkswagen will go for electric engines. >> apple will not come out with the car in 2016. >> 2016 will be the first hottest year on record. >> 2016 will be longer than 2015 because it is a leap year. >> yoga pants will take over the world. >> men will be wearing pink. >> men will be made fun of for wearing shorts in the office when it is 100 degrees outside. >> my prediction is people will stop making predictions because they realize they do not come
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true. >> how can i predict 2016? i can't predict when i'm having -- what i'm having for lunch today. >> it is a perilous question. >> the euro crisis will not be solved. >> i think the fed will raise rates. >> i do not think the fed will raise interest rates substantially in 2016. >> starbucks will introduce a new twist on the pumpkin spice latte and will drown out all talk about rates for inflation. >> donald trump will not be elected president. >> donald trump definitely will not be president. >> donald trump will admit it is paid to pay. al gore will not be -- toupe and al gore will not be elected president. >> we keep predicting that hillary clinton will be president and then she might not become president. i will not go so far out to say
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that she won't be president because only a fool would say hillary clinton is not going to be president. >> i am generally pessimistic. i am guessing 2016 will look a little bit better than 2015. >> i feel optimistic. >> how can you not, right? >> i like to think that it will be a good year. radiohead will put out a good new album. >> i'm sure it will work out just fine. >> i should have been research before. >> the year of the monkey. that will be a little volatile, but it is friendly, yes. yes. stephanie: that is all for that special year in review edition of "bloomberg best." you can always get more business news from around the world that bloomberg.com. i am stephanie ruhle. happy new year from all of us and thank you for watching bloomberg television in 2015.
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