announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." charlie: the remnant is a new film based on the 2002 novel. explores the existence of first rappers in the 1820's. plays hughcaprio glass, a legendary frontiersman who suffered a bear attack, was left for dead by his companions, and crawled to utter miles to safety. here's a look at the trailer.

>> the only thing to do is track on land. >> meanwhile we set out here like ducks. i am talking to you. >> the proper thing to do it be quick.ish him off

i understand. >> what happened? we did what we had to do. >> he was buried. >> all i had was that more -- boy. you took them from me, do you understand? he is afraid. he knows how far i came to find him. >> i ain't afraid to die

anymore. i have done it already. charlie: joining me now is the director. he won three academy awards in quite 15 for this film, "bird star, leonardo dicaprio. the writer describes his -- a writer describes his performance is a ferocious commitment. i am pleased to have them both here at this time. welcome. i love this quote, mrs. you in the hollow it -- hollywood review. with leo, i said, i would love to see you fragile, vulnerable, to see the man that could be broken, he was very excited by that. is that how you describe hugh glass? leonardo: it is an interesting story for all of us read it is

sort of a campfire legend that represents the iconic american in tears and. it is man's struggle against nature and his ability to also conquer nature as well. it has been told from generation to generation, it is the time period-you have this amazon like territory. you have the capitalistic move out west. he had the clash of the indigenous populations with french and english for trappers. and there's this man that is being -- has been mauled by a there, buried alive, and has to summon something within his will to persevere and move on. vengeance the thing that sort of fuels him from the onset. we knew that we wanted to make a movie where we submerged ourselves in these actual elements. we wanted to see what sort of poetry came about. what sort of questions arose in

us as still makers. that is what we did. i said this before, but alejandra had a tough time explaining to me why exactly he wanted to go on this mecca, so to speak. i saw some thing in his eyes, he wanted to submerge himself in these environments and see what came out. it was almost like a large portion of our lives together in nature, asking yourself these questions. i decided toaid embark in what i would characterize as more of a chapter of my life in a film commitment. >> i think it was like that for a lot of us are in -- of us. charlie: did you come out with a different feeling about what was important to you? >> we looked at all of the actors involved, we were there for nine months in sub euro

temperatures. we would to this as a grand sort of artistic experiment, we had never been a part of something like this. we read it -- rehearse all day long to pull off some very crucial and hard to do shots. we would have an hour and a half of natural light. it became like live theater. this frenetic pace we had to keep up with. or so for all of us it was about allowing ourselves to put our trust in somebody else's process. that is what this was for us as actors. a lot of this was thought about beforehand in great detail. we needed to give ourselves over completely to something entirely new. it created a great camaraderie between the entire cast and crew and director. charlie: but also the most demanding and toughest expanse

you had -- experience you have had as an actor? leonardo: by nature are doing a movie. this was the toughest film i have been a part of. charlie: this has been a what -- around for a while? :lejandro gonzalez iñarritu yes, i read the first written draft five years ago. i was really intrigued by the story of these men who actually was -- it was a real story about this character the 200 years ago almost was attacked by a bear. in the full winter he can survive 200 miles for revenge. i thought, what this guy has in mind, what happened in his life? anything that is known a few glass -- hugh glass before and after his pure legend. these men were alone by themselves in this difficult time. it was an uncharted territory.

this facted was that of being attacked by a bear and surviving so improbable, that it requires the willing suspension , which is basically the foundation of the cinematic phase of poetry. you need to suspend disbelief -- you need to stop judgment or prejudice to believe that a man can do that. to attempt that in a cinematic experience is what art is about. to make probable improbable. to put some ideas -- charlie: how long cinematically does the scene of the bear how many minutes? leonardo: 10 minutes. charlie: 10 minutes. how long did it take to shoot?

alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: it was a lot of research. it was one of those events no one would like to see in real life. to understand how it would actually happen, you have to see it in real time. when people say, why. charlie: almost like the "bird man" shooting. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: i thought to be in the point of view of hugh glass, people had to understand the point of view of the character. i wanted to make it in versus. -- immersive. if i decided to cut this bear ,ttack in a cinematic way fragmented lee -- fragmented, the way people are used to, we would lose the nuance of how he survived. that is what is incredible. survival is in the details. i would people to experience the whole thing. charlie: the bearer throws you

around like a doll. leonardo: i remove the cover , i readwith alejandro in the script, he fights the bear. i thought, how will i find this bear? despite this bear? -- fight this bear? you're basically a cat with a ball of yarn. i was the ball of yarn. is groundbreaking about that sequence and why so many people are talking about it is because it almost becomes virtual reality. you feel voyeuristic. that is a testament to his masterful work. as artist they have a way of submerging you into this reality, and making it almost -- making you almost feel the tension. a lot of what is so powerful is the moments of silence they create. the silence between man and beast, and what will happen next.

history -- the history of cinema unfolds, people will be talking about that sequence for a long time. charlie: the interesting thing about the performance, your performance is that you have said less in this movie than most of the movies you have done. it is about expression. it is about pain. it is about all of the things that you do with your eyes and your body. leonardo: that was what was interesting for me as an actor. -- how to push a narrative without words. that was attractive from the onset. it became about something different. he set up a landscape for us that was so incredibly authentic , the people around us, the costumes, the actual location that we were in. you do so much preparation beforehand learning about the time period and reading for trapper generals -- journals.

you meet men that were nostalgic. you do all of this research, but once you're there, and you're put in the condition, it is about trust. it is about trusting the director. and saying, how do we persevere. you rely on instinct as an actor. all of that preparation: of the things -- all of the things you have thought about fadeaway. that was true for the entire cast. a trust in one another that we would do something completely different cinematically. charlie: that is exactly what you want, isn't it? all of the preparation is there, but when the battle starts -- when the action starts, you want them lying on instinct -- relying on instinct. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: you have to surrender and be humble. one thing is to kind of have a conception of how -- in

bullfighting, how to stand in bull--you are like, don't be a coward, get close. -- claws. there is no negotiation. you are at the mercy of it. i didn't want the stone to get into the generic kind of thing. inform andng to substance in a predictable way. sometimes the substance starts getting too unpredictable that we couldn't have thought. sometimes those things defeat us. . that was the battle. that was what the film was about. isthe end, the end problem an x-ray of the process we went through. with all of the weakness and strength, but it is a work in

process because we never stop working with nature. charlie: you fill this in natural light -- filmed in natural light. so you had two hours. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: always on the sun came down, we were shooting. one of the reasons, visually we wanted a painting. a sonic painting. i wanted people to submerge. the landscape. i think the people will experience this film, though scenarios -- we are not allowed to see anymore because we have, in a way, polluted the planet with so many advertising and at the rightms, time of the day, that is when god speaks. that is part of the cinematic experience. killsandscape is what hugh glass.

to shoot it but -- at the right time was a production decision. , if we shotng takes at different times of the day, because we traveled two hours every day to get there -- we would never finish. charlie: you had a hard time finding a location? alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: we planned -- more than 100 locations in three states, and three different parts of the world. every time you arrive, you prepared three or four months in advance. he rehearsed, you do everything for those things to be there. suddenly you arrive and they are destroyed by a a lizard -- or there is no snow. all of the time, you have to move around. ♪

charlie: the river had to be cold. they did not heed it -- heat it. leonardo: the entire production was cold. i had not been in the cold in a while. i got to new york yesterday, and thought, we did this every day for nine months. i think my core temperature dropped. flashbacks to the movie. charlie: what was the most challenging part, other than the elements? leonardo: the challenging part.

the endurance. the endurance that everyone had to have every single day. he set the bar so high from the onset. the opening sequence in the movie, i did not understand what alejandro was doing. he wanted to put the audience in the mindset of each of these lead characters in this long, 50 minute tracking shot. it took almost 3-4 weeks of reversal. achieve in that sequence is something -- i keep on talking about the movies that they must have drawn upon, solaris, they this ability to get incredibly intimate with the characters, and then pan off to a landscape.

we view the cinematic snake in and out of the forest and to the mindsets of each character. i didn't understand what was going on until i saw the final product. i realized, well, that is why we prepare for these things in such great detail. that is why it takes weeks and weeks. charlie: what is it about him that made you willing to give yourself over to him and trust him? --nardo: i have been a with a fan of his work for a long time. it is the passion. it was the look in his eyes from the onset of saying, he wanted to go down to the heart of darkness so to speak. he wanted to have that moment in nature. it was almost like he wanted to give himself over to something higher than him. it was almost a sort of spiritual voyage that i think he wanted to go on. --new, there are so many

only so many times in your life you can be on a journey like that. you want to put yourself in the hands of someone that will strive for incredible authenticity. that is what he did. there is no sequence in this movie that i do not remember alejandro looking at everything that detail. that is what you want when you're working with a director. you want them to think of all of these things that you can concentrate on your job. he created this incredibly authentic atmosphere for us everyday. charlie: so many people have raised the idea, how can an actor in those circumstances concentrate on his acting. leonardo: because of the conditions? it forces you to concentrate. be in the moment. granted, you have the cinematographer sometimes coming with a lens like this your face. you have to sort of edit that out. it forces you into almost this primal state of being. when you're out there for that

long, it becomes about the basics. it is strange. existentialsoteric, things that you are thinking about, it becomes about just moving forward. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: the first time i met with him to offer the role, i just put the gun and said, do you accept? he did it. it is true, it is all of the rehearsal. once we were there, we knew that we had this one take. -- the use one -- no words, it is a show and tell film. charlie: this is a bit like the oose makes you concentrate. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: you have to be aware and present.

at the same time, reacting to birds or things that move. i think it is because the awareness that that technique gives you is the awareness that you will be making this in front of millions, it is what actors feel in the opening broadway show. they are exposed. that is it. leonardo: for us as actors, a lot of us had to adjust to the process of finding our performance within very specific shop structures. -- shot structures. it became different. and became a completely unique process for all of us. it was like live theater everything will day. -- every single day. the attention of having to achieve that hour and a half every single day is infused into the actual movie. you feel that tension.

we were high octane everything will day -- every single day. if not, we would have to show up in the next day, hours away from -- you know. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: next time you're in a green screen you'll be asking for snow. charlie: just a note about the cinematographer, someone who worked with you on "bird man." alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: he is a brother and a true artist. he is truly one of those guys, not only ahead of his time, he is a master of light. he is a partner, partner in crime, visionary, sensitive artist, like nobody else. we sure this kind of excitement of this time. renovate or die.

always he would like to be renovating and trying things knowing that we could fail horribly. success is to fail and try again. we are trying all the time, knowing that we can fail. even mistakes we found in the way, we love it because we said, maybe there's something nice. without -- beauty there is no light without darkness. we found those territories and we shared it. harlie: what is it about a hugh glass, the true story made into a book that enabled him to persevere? factis that accept or -- x or? it is a tough thing to answer, but seeing these characters in this movie on screen, you are amazed about the perseverance of life. the adaptability of life on her.

-- life on earth. this movie took on a bunch of meetings for me. some things i couldn't have foreseen from the onset. so many conversations we had iod, thiss time per first search out west, this capitalistic surged to extract resources, kill animals, send them to europe. here you have these native american populations -- their culture is decimated. it was an environmental undertone as well. stories about man surviving nature. it took on all these other meanings. especially going to places like , and theian parsons environment will i did, seeing how we are systematically doing this -- destroying these places.

indigenous cultures, forest lands, our planet, on an unprecedented scale in history, we think we have learned so much from the past, from the mistakes of people in history, but here we are at this day and age doing things on a grander scale than ever before. not to mention the fact that we were shooting a film where we felt the onset of climate change fit 2015 being one of the hottest years and recorded years -- accorded history. we are seeing -- recorded history. we are seeing from so many different locations. here we are today, seeing unprecedented weather events all over. i wasovie kind of, simultaneously doing a document about climate change. we were interviewing dozens of scientists and thinkers and politicians all over the world. i was doing a film about climate change while i was doing this movie. --see it firsthand like this

it is an unforgettable moment in my life because this is the turning point. charlie: this is you speaking at the climate change conference in paris in december. rotate. tape.ll beenrdo: the year that has the hottest in recorded history, it is hard to understand how people refuse to accept the reality of climate change. every year we allow their refusal to hold the world back to making progress is another year gone. precious days, weeks, months and years, wasted on an action. -- in action. today is different, across the globe, people of all communities are demeaning change. marching in raising their voices and saying, enough is enough, we must act, and we must act now. our world leaders have come to paris, construed to buy politics, the individual needs of their constituencies, but we

need to leave here, liberated by emboldenedity, and by their sense of stewardship to the planet. -- be timidchoice and to stop at an agreement that allows them to save face, or they can leave. they can return to their own towns and cities with a real plan to save the planet. it is these cities that the change must start. charlie: you have suggested, and you have in that speech, we can meet the energy demands with clean, renewable energy. if we start now. leonardo: the united states needs to lead the way. charlie: did they in paris? leonardo: these agreements for our for all -- are for all emissions. we are talking about a scale of carbon in the atmosphere that is unprecedented. the climate is reacting accordingly. there have been carbon emissions and temperatures throughout

recorded history, now we are here. it has been this grand puzzle that has been incredibly difficult to figure out. one thing crystal clear, is the united states play some of the most major roles in the entire world. if they had not come to the table, if the world community had not come to the table at this conference, the environment to movement and climate movement would be dead. there needed to be some sort of progress. each one of these climate summits have failed miserably. for the first time, the world community is taking it seriously. the big question is, are we too late? that has been the pondering question for everyone. we should all remain optimistic, i want to remain optimistic. charlie: you're worried we're too late. somehow we have done so much damage -- leonardo: we do know that the scientific community has been screaming outlay for decades -- out loud for decades. others have stifled their voices and manipulated the conversation.

it is a shame. one thing i am proud of, for the first time, we have seen the world community take the issue seriously. if they hadn't, there would be no hope. we cannot wait another four years for people to start to listen to 99% of the scientific community. it has become an absurdity. it is not about individual anymore. it is about we. it is about we as a species, as a world community, finally coming together to make some sort of progress forward. whether we are too late or not, remains to be seen. happy as an environmentalist to see some thing happen. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: something i was laughing -- when i was reading the news, the politicians were discussing about nature. two degrees and a half. degreesit would be two as if they can control the planet earth's system.

we experienced the difference between one degree and another. it is a difference between ice and water. with a degree fell -- when a degree fell -- we were supposed to be in one location, suddenly shooting "the revenant" the difference is ice and water. when ice becomes water, it destroys the whole thing. i saw that. when they say, two degrees is acceptable, i say, really? experience one degree of change and you will talk about it. notionm saying is, the of the kind of change is one -- climate change is one, but to experience it -- and scientists travel to these places to experience it, is a different thing. charlie: from your portfolio, you engage in this. leonardo: it is very important.

like i said, simultaneously i was doing a document about climate change. i hope to have it released next year. we could talk about this till we are blue in the face. it is the most axis essentially human crisis the world has known. it is the biggest problem that mankind has had to face. we're not talking about something that will change in a decade or not. charlie: and a threat to the nation -- national -- : it is something -- it is something that will change the planet for millions of years. at this point we are hoping for a miracle. charlie: future generations will say, why didn't you do something? leonardo: exactly. : you have done a lot of documentaries. last time you are here you are -- we talked about a documentary . leonardo: i think it was around

veranga. i am focusing on environmental documentaries. charlie: thank you for coming. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: thank you. charlie: the film opens this weekend. much success. alejandro gonzalez iñarritu: thank you very much. charlie: economic. -- back in a moment. stay with us. ♪

charlie: market turmoil in chinese financial markets spread across the world this week. shanghai composite dropped by more than 7% on thursday, triggering a circuit breaker agenda trading for the day. regulatory authorities say they will suspend ineptness and going forward. effects were felt on the u.s. markets as well. the dow jones closed down nearly 400 point. investors were partly reacting to the chinese control bank moving to weaken the yuan. is henry and ted. i am pleased to have both of them on the program at this time . i begin with you, my friend, julian. what is going on? >> it is not a good start to a

happy new year. the issue is not just the fact that china is slowing down. pace of growth is going -- slowing down. what is worrying people right now is politics and policy uncertainty. we are seeing the chinese government do some pretty unforgettable things, whether it is having another billionaire disappear. whether it is essentially coming into the market and coming out. in the real sense it is actually a country we thought was a bedrock of the global economy and whose leadership was really winning control is losing control. you,ie: will come back to same analysis. same question. >> to me, it is about the currency. if you think about the chinese currency, it has a volatility of 2%. right now it is four times that. we have never, as investors with that kind of volatility. to me what is going on is china is going and trying to liberalize, as they go forward their taking step back -- step

back. it is hard to liberalize your interest rates and currencies, .nd flows all in one swoop they're trying to manage the process. as she said, it will come with volatility. the number 1.0, if the currency is moving -- the currency is moving more than people thought. china has three and a half million in reserves to support it. the rest of the world, emerging markets the trade with china, do not have that base. one of the conclusions of what is happening is there is in effect outside of china than what is actually going on inside china. >> here's the interesting point, you're right in terms of saying it is actually not just about the chinese currency, it is about a range and emerging-market currencies. we were looking at the financial times, the emerging-market currencies excluding the china currency are lower than they were in the autumn when janet

yellen and the rest of the fed is cited not to raise rates because of concern about global turmoil. in many ways we are seeing an increasingly unstable situation and the tech not just tectonic plates for the global economy shift. charlie: it is not only about the markets. it is important to remember a growing that is growing -- a country that is growing at that percent -- the issue is, we are seeing a lot of confidence. check can be damaging, not just in china, but worldwide. >> i was there a couple of weeks ago, we have 16 businesses in china. those of the business is doing fine print i think what you're seeing right now is more capital market phenomena. no question, the fundamental

premise, china was a exporter from 2000-2013. it is shifting to a consumer story. that is slowing as well. it is really to me, about the capital markets. they want to control the liberalization process. right now you have the command and control economy facing off against capitalism. it is the intersection creating volatility. issue,: there is another there are pockets of the chinese economy that have run up white a lot of debt. that has not got a lot of attention. as we start to see more capital market turmoil, as we see people questioning the chinese economic growth, one thing people should watch for is what happens to those people in debt. charlie: when you could world bank changing the forecast for to 2.9, is that

all connected to china? are the observations on the global market -- we have other factors on stability in the middle east. we have oil prices and those things are connected. we have other things going on around the world other than the chinese economy. gillian: absolutely. look at south africa right now, it used to be one of the darlings of the emerging-market world. we seeing a lot of political uncertainty there. look at brazil, frankly again, it was one of the great bricks, the so-called emerging-market darling the people wanted to invest in. those are concerning things right now. is that about political corruption or the drying up of the chinese market and the chinese demand for that economy? gillian: it is a combination. the commodity cycle is significant. it keeps falling in most sectors. here is something people do not

look at, shipping index. shipping indexes which reflects global trade has fallen to its lowest level in several decades this week. innocence, we do not need to panic yet. certainly the type of growth rates people were expecting this year, are unlikely to be there. george said itk reminded him of 2008. china has a crisis and it will challenge financial markets. look at the global gdp, the u.s. is about a third, china is about a third. it is a two engine that drives the global economy. china's economy has been slowing for some time. growing 35%,was today it is 10% and stabilizing. that is not new, what is new, is the moving towards dealer

realization -- deliberate of the currency. central banks have created a greater environment for wall street. what is shifting is, we will see an ok environment for main street, but tougher for wall street. lesson: if there is one we learned from 2008, you cannot separate capital markets and the real economy. something that has not gotten fact, attention, is the the trillions of dollars of quantitive easing have often ended up in the emerging-market world. that has created debt bubbles and emerging market world. just as in 2007, 2008, we are beginning to see those gigantic bubbles begin to actually, if not implode, the deflate. -- been deflate. --then deflate.

that is what people are concerned about. henry: china runs a strong current account surplus. their fiscal balance is in good shape. to me, i don't worry much -- as much about china unraveling. through our businesses we can see the consumers still growing. household income is growing. that is 8-10% per year. she hit on come of this phenomenon of global trade is something we take for granted. we think globalization is a one-way trade. since 2014 isseen global trade as a percent of gdp is coming down. people trylows down, to devalue the currency to create competitive advantage. what has happened this time, it has only raised the price of imports. there has been no pickup in exports. that is what is different about the cycle. gillian: if you want to be

geeky, go home and look at the baltic drive rate -- drive rate and dekes. -- index. it is a signal of global trade. it indicates the price of having a chunk of space on a ship to move your goods around the world. when you have lower levels of trade, falling demand, you tend to have prices collapsed. charlie: because there is a lot of space on the ship. henry: with lower rates you build excess capacity. you have not created enough excess demand. what is different about recovery, there is not a lot of demand, but because consumers are not levering up, we have created a lot of supply. the second thing is china is trying to build a domestic consumption economy. by definition, if they are doing that, that means there are doing less trade with others. you have got, what i would say is the biggest part -- number one and number two in the global

economy is now more inward focused. over time it makes them more of a defensive, more self-reliant economy. the u.s. is 70% consumption. largely, if we do not shoot ourselves in the foot, we could have a good economy. china has been largely fixed in -- investment and trade, they have to depend on exported to others. they are trying to make more of a domestic economy. charlie: to have a rising middle class. henry: as they do that, many partners are still betting on the old model, which was global trade. that is where you see the friction. charlie: those models cannot exist side-by-side? henry: they can on a long-term basis. we are in the hitter -- here in now right now. you are at a time where the federal reserve is changing and voluntary -- monetary policy. we have two things, the fed is raising interest rates at a time where china is trying to liberalize the currency. that will create volatility.

charlie: was that a mistake to liberalize currency? henry: they have to, to get to where they want to go, they need to liberalize. charlie weis liberalize means? -- charlie: liberalize means? henry: interest rates, currency, and flows in and out of the country. move and flowsn can come in and out, they are struggling right now with doing that in a smooth fashion. what happens is, you're getting these moments where you are saying, we will liberalize, but then you intervene. the stock market intervention we saw over the last few months is a perfect example -- to your point earlier, it creates -- it hurts the confidence of the domestics. : japan in the 1980's, was in the same position. the problem is coming to take an economy like japan in the postwar, or china, you build it up where you have intense

control, all of the money in the economy directed towards industry, and bureaucrats control that and run it effectively. the problem today, like japan and the 1980's, is that when an economy outgrows that kind of model, moving to a brave new world market-driven finance is hard. they should have started this several years ago and had a gradual transition. by delaying reforms, unfortunately, china, just like japan before, is seeing a nasty shock. we all know how the japanese bubble ended. i think you have to separate the chinese economy into three parts. one is exports, we do think there is stress. the other is consumption. the third is value added services. but the number two is what people said -- or toothbrushes, combs, that is becoming more mature. bucket three, the value added services, health care, wellness, financial services, that is

booming. can tell you, we were just there. environmental protection, people want to make sure their kids have the right health care. it was a make sure they are not being hurt by smog. 20se businesses are growing percent-.5%. destiny 5%. -- 25%. charlie: they have an enormous -- in or miss reserves, what can they do to restructure their economy and create a stimulus that might boost their economy? henry: the number one thing right now is you need to create more transparency. i think people internally and externally want to know what the game plan is. that, in both, people have said they do not trust the numbers. henry: i think the anticorruption initiative is widespread. liquorit, we have a distribution business where sales have fallen by 30%.

people used to graft gifts. that business has fallen off. people do not know if you can give a gift or not because of corruption. you extend that fear beyond just traditional corruption. to me, creating more transparency about that. the second is, if you go back to the interest rate and the currency, in august we had a shock overnight. that created an unsettled -- environment, similarly you mentioned eight days were the currency went down. nobody expected china would get into the s cr and move their currency down eight days in row. those kinds of messages in terms of communicating, think about what has happened. we have gone from a government in china that communicated well, and ben bernanke communicated well, so right now we have janet yellen. people question whether she fully understands proper medication with the market. i think in the chinese

leadership we have strong officials who know how to consolidate power. they know where they want to go. in terms of capital market express, they are learning. gillian: there are three areas, one, you need policy transparency. one day they say they are trying to intervene in the currency market, the next day they vanish. that is not help confidence. they need political transparency. today we had another billionaire banish -- banish. vanish. and data transparency. a $1.5 billion hedge fund, a successful one in london announced this week it is shutting down because the markets in china are so un-transparent it is hard to invest in a rational way. it was an emerging market fund. that is knocking on investor confidence. henry: investors moving into the emerging market are going to need to be able to move away

from a hedge fund model. they will have to lock up their money for a longer amount of time. if you think about it, the volatility that we are seeing is going to be higher, going forward. by definition. gillian: i agree. i understand, right now, anyone hoping to make short-term gains on a market like china, might as well take their money on the blackjack table. it is a gamble. you might be lucky. assume you mean by that, you might as well put it on a blackjack table, is simply because no one -- things are so volatile, the factors that will determine the success -- you have no capacity to predict what way they'll go. gillian: you have three factors making it hard for people, complete data uncertainty in also the bigia,

changes in the way the market works. algorithmic trading means that markets behave and kill your ways. fashion the good old political risk. all manner of military conflicts. we have not seen that for a number of years. that makes life unpredictable. 2015: as we look back at is the slowdown in global trade. things: there were two that drove optimism, global economy at the turn of the century, a belief of normal globalization, and more free market capitalism. that was the consensus. we know now that trends can go into reverse. charlie: you are pessimistic? no, i think we will see a level of growth that will not be disastrous, but i do think we are entering a bumpy face. one thing that -- bumpy phase. one thing that is clear, looking

at economics in just numbers does not work. you have to think about it in terms of policy uncertainty, and politics. charlie: is there a lessening of confidence and the teaching -- gigi ping government. gillian: i think there's a lessening and confidence of the government. -- ouroverall are based base you is -- we are and investment firm. we're finding things to do. gillian: when there is blood in the streets, get out and invest. that is where fortunes are made. lead: quantitative easing to too much debt any system. that debt will have to become unwound. from our standpoint, we're finding lots of firms the need to rethink about their -- how their debt and equity capital structure work. they're coming in talking to us.

-- and talking to us. charlie: they are talking about whether you need to buy them. henry: to partner, by then, in general, when you say and my pessimistic about the chinese government, i think they have a playbook in which they will consolidate power. i do think there were excesses that needed to be out of the system. the second thing i don't want to discredit -- china has an incredible central-bank, when you think about outside, maybe mexico, maybe india, he is one of the top central bankers in the world. i think he has a thoughtful plan. taking a billion people, integrating them from a command and control economy into a market-based economy, there are going to be bumps. charlie: it is a five-year plan. henry: at a minimum. charlie: thank you for joining us. see you next time. ♪

♪ john: i am john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect" to marco rubio, you are a shoe in. ♪ mark: double knot and velcro those babies, tonight we are going for a ride. i am here at a jeb bush campaign event in south carolina. first in the nation, first in the south. we will start with the controversy that is already well-worn, but it is the shoebio crisis. on the surface,