mark: i am mark halperin. john: i am john heilemann. with all due respect to joe biden, it is nice to have you back. greetings from pasadena, california. on the show tonight, the president's last hurrah, and gop escalation. but first, bernie sanders on the rise. he his first election cycle, is leaving hillary clinton in major polls in new hampshire and in iowa. he is up 14% in a monmouth poll

five points in a iowa poll. add that to the shade joe biden threw in the past 24 hours and a stunning ratcheting up of rhetoric by clinton and her daughter, chelsea, on the campaign trail today, and there's only one conclusion -- the prospect of a sanders sweep in the first two states in the nomination process is that real. if you thought clinton's attacks on sanders yesterday were an 8.3 on the richter scale, at a campaign event today, she cranked things up to 11. >> do not talk to me about standing up to corporate interests. i have the scars to show for it. i am proud of every single one of them. we have a big difference over guns. i think it is a telling difference. if you're going to go around

saying you stand up to special interests, stand up for the most powerful special interests, the gun lobby. he wants to roll medicare, medicaid, affordable care act, and private health insurance into a national system and turn it over to the states to administer. now, if that is the revolution he is talking about, i am worried, folks. john: in all our years on planet earth, we have never seen what we are about to show you on television. chelsea clinton playing the role of political attacker. >> senator sanders wants to dismantle obamacare, the chip program, medicare, private insurance. republicans in congress have voted against the affordable care act 55 times not because they want to replace it but because they want to get rid of

it. i worry if we give republicans a democratic permission to do that, we will go back to an era before the affordable care act that will strip millions of people of health insurance. currently, there is a $19 trillion gap between what senator sanders has proposed and how he has articulated paying for the proposals. that is troubling. john: how is bernie sanders responding? his campaign put out a statement saying the clinton campaign is mischaracterizing his position on health care. even before the onslaught, the senator was swaggering away at the forum we were at in des moines. >> she has been getting more aggressive with you. >> yeah. >> why is that? >> it could be that the

inevitable candidate for the democratic nomination may not be so inevitable today. i have known hillary clinton for 25 years. i have a lot of respect for her. basically what we are looking at is an establishment politician. i think it is too late for establishment politics and economics. john: mark, hillary clinton, chelsea clinton beating up on bernie sanders. we have not seen bill clinton do that, but wait. is she getting tough with sanders, finally? is she panicking? mark: i have covered the clintons since 1991. it takes a lot to surprise me. i am stunned watching chelsea clinton go on the attack. they are trying to attack bernie sanders from the left on health care. he supports single-payer. i am stunned by the whole thing. i will say that you and i spent a couple days in iowa. we saw bernie sanders.

we saw the event last night. there is no doubt he has built something real. she has too, but the stakes are immense. i guess she feels she has no choice. she must do it. going after him is smart, but the way they are doing it is not smart. john: we are in the same boat. chelsea clinton was 12 years old when we started covering her. she is now a grown woman. very impressive in many ways. never have i seen it before. 2008, saidned in only nice things about her mother, never attacked a barack obama or john edwards. mark: it is historic. john: kind of amazing. this attack is not just strange politically. it is so disingenuous. they are arguing that what he wants to do is strip away health care from people. as if to say he wanted to get rid of the affordable care act. it is just a lie. the only way he would ever go to medicare for all is if they

replaced the affordable care act, which would be broader universal coverage. mark: clinton claimed for it while they were behind in new hampshire and had a decent lead in iowa. if they do not get both races behind them, they are clearly threatened. the easiest way hillary clinton can have a good 2016 is win iowa, new hampshire, or both. if she loses them, it will be very hard. john: here is the conversation on the basis of intuition. what was happening at clinton headquarters in 2008, bill clinton said take barack obama seriously. we need to go negative against him. hillary clinton said no. he felt vindicated when obama won iowa. he said, you should have listened to me. we should have taken that guy out three months ago. that conversation is happening again. do not relive 2008. we cannot let sanders emerge intact. we have to hit him hard. mark: might have waited too long.

chelsea clinton is coming to hillary clinton's rescue. one person who is not coming to her rescue, her old friend and former colleague, joe biden. if anything, vice president biden sounded like a bernie sanders surrogate in two television interviews, one with cnn last night and one with today this morning. he praised the democratic underdog for his position on guns and income inequality and hit hillary clinton where she is most vulnerable -- on the question of, does she have a true commitment to liberal causes. >> does bernie sanders have to change his position on gun manufacturers to have your support? >> no. what bernie sanders has to do is say the second amendment, which he has, the second amendment says you can limit who can own a gun. i think bernie is speaking to a yearning that is deep and real.

he has credibility on it. that is the enormous concentration of wealth with a small group of people. >> hillary is talking about that as well. >> it is relatively new for hillary to talk about that. mark: to quote bill clinton, if you see a turtle on a fence post, you know it did not get there by itself. john: there are two things going on here. bernie sanders' brand of economics joe biden believes in. he has believed in it for a long time, advocated for it in the administration. mark: and he does not believe hillary clinton has the same brand? john: he believes hillary clinton is more of a centrist on economics. he applauds what sanders is doing on substance. the second thing is he is sick to death of the clintons. that is why he considered running against her in the fall.

he is still pissed off at them. part of this is he is speaking his mind. mark: the other thing is he wants to be part of this discussion. he wants the democratic party in a certain place. i saw on twitter that somebody today said al gore and jerry brown will form a listserv. that was me, by the way. this is real. in the sanders rising polls, the e-mail investigation, hillary clinton's uneven performance, hillary clinton is still the front runner, but there are other democrats -- what if, on the night of the primary, sanders and trump have won both? does the party feel it is a good hand? john: in des moines last night, a couple sanders people were giddy with what joe biden said. i said, this is great, but do not be too giddy.

there is some part of joe biden, and he keeps saying that he regrets not running, but there is some part that might be storing a little mischief. mark: in that interview, she asked him, are you ruling out running? john: no scenario that i can foresee. mark: he did not rule it out by any means. john: this evening, president obama will deliver his seventh and final state of the union address. this will be one of the last major speeches of obama's presidency and highlight what he accomplished in office and lay out priorities and unfinished business for his last year. the white house is saying the address will attempt to cut through the "day-to-day noise" of washington and call for a united country. the white house says this is true with every state of the union. especially true for this one. they are trying to say, take a look over here. have they succeeded? mark: they have succeeded on a couple levels.

the press is paying more attention to it than i thought. they are using social media. some i have never heard of. the way they failed, and this has been part of the administration, i think he has reached his base. tonight will not give him much of an opportunity to persuade people who do not approve of the job he is doing. john: i was talking to a senior white house official who said everything you need to know about this speech is that eve childs will be in the audience. she coined "fired up, ready to go" in the 2008 campaign. this is poetry more than prose. he wants to say i have traveled full circle. from when i first ran for president. the themes that inspired me to run. bring the whole thing home again. mark: next, we will take a look at the republican presidential race. it got a little nastier in the last few days. we will show you the latest gop attacks and analyze them. ♪ mark: another republican poll

to talk about with a dozen candidates making the final sprint. the top tier may be getting harder to break into. in iowa, donald trump and ted cruz are in a statistical tie for first place with 31% and 29%. marco rubio at 15%. ben carson at 7%. everyone else in the field is below 5%. nationally, there is a new survey that has donald trump extending his lead at 30%, trailed by ted cruz at 20%. marco rubio at 11%, ben carson at 9%. everyone else at 3% or lower. the des moines register poll will be out tomorrow morning. we will look at that. based on these latest numbers, who should be worried?

john: you have to be a little worried if you are ted cruz. there is some sign maybe you are not running away with iowa. jeb bush has to be disconsolate. there is no sign of uptick. chris christie, the sense that he had upward movement is gone. john kasich has to be happiest right now. he is seeing a surprising sign of life in new hampshire. mark: i will tell you about how iowa is shaping up. i think trump has a strong in there. if ted cruz finishes second, people will say he lost his lead. for people in the party who want to stop trump, they may turn to cruz. it may be better for ted cruz to finish second in iowa. john: there are too many people in the party that hate donald trump and ted cruz. it would not be devastating for

cruz to come in second in iowa. a close second would be fine for him. he would rather win the state. use it to propel himself. mark: all i am saying is second is perfectly good. john: especially if there is a big gap between him and marco rubio. mark: i do not think anyone thinks carson will jump up. but can rubio be a clear third? that is the big question in iowa. john: we have reached that time in our program when we talk about the gop firing squad. here are some of the latest developments. after donald trump quoted a harvard law professor on the issue of ted cruz's canadian birth, cruz jabbed back saying, why are hillary's strongest supporters backing donald trump? meanwhile, rubio is opening a new line of attacks on ted cruz over his tax plan, and jeb bush

is labeling rubio a flip-flopper on issues in a web video released today. >> marco rubio ran for senate saying he opposed amnesty. then he co-authored the path to citizenship bill. he threatened to vote against an voted for. marco rubio, just another washington politician you cannot trust. >> ♪ these boots were made for flipping ♪ john: joe pounder, advisor to marco rubio, responded saying, after spending $75 million with nothing to show for it, jeb bush's campaign exists for the sole purpose of tearing down conservatives like marco rubio.

all these is tablet when guys. guys.ablishment what is your take away? who has the upper hand? mark: if i were rubio, i would be concerned. all his opponents want to say he is a flip-flopper. we have not seen major money against rubio on the air. he has got to be worried. all these other attacks, attacking cruz on the tax plan, it will be difficult for anyone to break through. particularly when donald trump flexes. he has not flexed today. that is in part why we are talking about this stuff. the danger for somebody like rubio, where all his opponents will attack them for the same thing. john: joe pounder is a part of this. but right to rise, which has more money than any single entity out there on the republican side, they have said,

the money doing positive stuff for jeb bush is not working. now, mike murphy, master of the dark arts, is saying, i will take marco rubio down. that is not a great place to be. regardless of the substance. mark: rubio remains the strongest of the establishment candidates. these other three are all eyeing each other. john: kasich may be able to draft a little on this anti-rubio stuff. mark: when we come back, we will preview the state of the union. our colleagues our hunt and margaret telik join us. ♪

♪ john: joining us from washington to preview the state of the union address and a whole lot

more, al hunt and margaret talev. great to have you here. al, you are the dean. we have heard all the ways in which this state of the union will be different. in all the ways it will be different, will it matter at all? >> not a great deal, john. that last state of the union given by any president does not matter a whole lot. minimal effect on the election. they are trying to frame whether it is reagan or bush. they try to frame their place in history. this will be an upbeat speech. the great conundrum that he faces tonight is on the one hand, the record is impressive. unemployment down 10% to 5%. stock market risen 178% budget deficit is down. on the other hand, people feel the country is heading in the wrong direction. his popularity is low.

people agree the economic recovery has been uneven. it is a contradiction he faces tonight. he will try to emphasize the former. mark: margaret, foreign policy and natural security will be unpredictable terrain. on domestic policy, what is the best case for the white house for what the president can get done through executive order or legislation this year? >> there are a handful of things they want to get into going forward. on the domestic front, they include areas involving poverty and a meeting of the minds with republicans on poverty. you heard paul ryan signaling that over the weekend. a little bit on criminal justice reform. republicans wanting to reach out to minority americans who have had the odds stacked against them in the criminal justice system. saying we want fairness and to bring down the cost of incarceration that states and

the federal government have to absorb. but a fairly limited amount that they can accomplish legislatively. >> how about trade? >> he wants congress to ratify the tpp and will presumably ask for that again. he has been asking for that since the beginning. he does not want to put all of his eggs into what can get done this year basket. he wants to talk about what he he hopes to accomplish in his years beyond the presidency as well. so if you does not get them this year, he does not fail. john: margaret, you have covered barack obama since he ran for president and covered him closely for seven years. you know how he thinks about big speeches. the state of the union has never been one of his absolute favorites. how is he thinking about tonight differently from past states of the union? >> in previous states of the union, he was trying to point out areas where he could

realistically get congress to case forke a plausible that to take it to the public to run his own executive order campaign. at this point, in year eight, we can guess he knows what he wants to do by executive order. he knows a couple things he can do through legislation. he is really shooting for the fences at this point, swinging for the fences -- i will not say shooting. but the president is really thinking about how he can shape his legacy, talk to americans about how he wants them thinking. we will see a little 2016 politics. a little bit. i expect it to be understated. we can expect him to want to cast his optimism in contrast to donald trump's pessimism. this speech, unlike previous speeches, i do not expect it to be about here is what i want to get done this year and more

about here is what i want the country to become. >> can i just jump in here? let's turn the clock back a year ago. we said it was going to be an awful year. he had a pretty good 2015. if he gets criminal justice reform and the biggest trade pact in 40 years, that is a heck of a achievement for a president. i am not sure he would get that, but that would really be a package for his final year. mark: less than a minute, but i am desperate to hear your reaction to the comments from joe and the extraordinary comments from chelsea clinton today regarding bernie sanders. >> they are nervous, mark, real nervous. they think that bernie could win iowa and new hampshire. may not change the outcome, it will give them fits for months to come. joe is having fun stirring the pot. [laughter]

john: al, margaret, thank you. when we come back, we talk to bob shrum and fred davis. if you are watching us in d.c., you can listen to us on bloomberg 99.1. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.

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political wisemen, bob shrum and fred davis, who is working for the super pac supporting john kasich. john: one has superior hair. >> one has almost no hair. mark: two political strategists who live in california but spend time all over the country. we are glad you could join us. bob, you watched the clintons for a long time. including chelsea. what is your reaction to this huge development in the race and clintons,an of the chelsea clinton hitting bernie sanders on health care? >> i wonder if it is intentional. i do not think it is smart. i think it is a real mistake to use her as an attack dog. it is not a role that fits her. i think she is much better testifying for her mother. i do not know that these charges are going to hold up very well over time. bernie sanders has been saying, abolish medicare, abolish

obamacare. he has been saying use the model and create medicare for all. it is kind of a distortion. people work for hillary clinton. very smart people. we all agree with what bob said. how in a campaign does something like that happen? did someone say, you know what? let's try chelsea out? >> it is almost a scripted attack. mark: how did that happen? >> one of the great questions. strange things happen in campaigns. that is one of the worst. mark: this situation? >> makes zero sense. exactly what bob said. john: here is the next logical question. the attack dog you would expect would be bill clinton. has not done that at also far. now chelsea is doing it. what happens to bill clinton? if you are running the clinton campaign, how would you deploy bill clinton to stop bernie

sanders? >> first of all, you should be raising money. doing stuff with party leaders, dealing with the dnc. i do not think he should be out there as an attack dog. i think she needs to run as hillary clinton, not the clintons. it does not help her to run as the clintons. it begins to draw all this return fire and tell a new generation that is unacquainted with it about some of the stuff from the 1990's, which i thought we put behind us. i think it is a smart idea to use him. >> behind the scenes. >> behind the scenes or with a heavy party audience. raising money, doing that kind of thing. i think if she wins the favorite to dog so, if she wins the nomination, the person she needs to be her bill clinton is barack obama. he needs to do for her in 2016 what bill clinton did for him in 2012.

mark: haley barbour says nothing in politics is as good or bad as it seems. the sanders campaign is doing well right now. do you see any errors? or is everything they are doing working? >> i never thought they would get this far. so they have done a spectacular job. mark: bob? anything on how they are handling themselves? >> he is drawing huge crowds. at the same time, he is doing all this personal campaigning. one comment would be, big crowds, but iowa and new hampshire, you have to meet people. they have a lot of field organization on the ground. a lot of it is volunteers. i think -- , tad your longtime partner -- >> my former partner, tad devine, is a strategy leader for bernie sanders. john: the clinton campaign has felt that new hampshire and iowa are all-white states, different

from the rest of the country. she has strength with african-american and hispanic voters. if bernie sanders were to win iowa and new hampshire, win them both, would african-american and latino voters look at him anew? >> not instantly, but there are two dynamics that would come into play aside from the huge press attention. nevada would become important. there is a lot of organization on the ground for both candidates. there is some indication the race may be getting closer. the sanders people are enthusiastic. if he wins nevada, you would have a recalibration. would she win south carolina? yes. could he survive that? sure. in the superer tuesday states, minnesota,

colorado, massachusetts, what they did. gary hart showed in 1984 you could lose a bunch of primaries in the middle and make it to the end. if he had not made the joke about new jersey, he would have been the nominee. mark: if sanders wins iowa and new hampshire, fundraising will explode more than it has. that will give him the ability to plan other things. >> people will be giving him another look. mark: we will talk more about the republicans, but a baseline question -- you are working to help governor kasich. there are indications he is in the mix. is it a foregone conclusion to you that cruz and trump are going to be finalists? >> i think so. mark: the question is, will there be one or two others that join him? but they are in the march sweepstakes no matter what? >> i think so. barring some horrible error. >> what error could trump make?

mark: what is the biggest vulnerability? we have to go to go -- break, but one sentence for each. the biggest they have now. >> i think it is the same for both, the strangeness factor. the fact that they are as bizarre as they come. i know you're chuckling, but at i think some point it has to sink in. mark: voters will say, that person does not feel right? >> they do not have presidential demeanor. >> you are an expert in strange. john: you are a man who knows strange. mark: bob and fred will stay with us. after the break, we will ask them to play a time-honored game called engaging in hypotheticals. ♪ ♪

>> i am not going to engage in hypotheticals. >> i am not going to engage in hypotheticals. >> we do not want to engage in hypotheticals. john: those five people will not engage in hypotheticals, but we certainly will. we are back for our favorite in hypotheticals. take off your partisan hats and put on your smart guy hats. we will run through some scenarios. you will help us figure out these things. bob, you are advising ted cruz. >> unthinkable, but go ahead. john: and donald trump decides to unleash the hounds. goes negative on you with advertising in iowa. what do you do?

>> you have to go back at him. the one thing we learned about trump is that, if he goes at you, like jeb bush, it is not going to work. the real question is, does going back at him work? there seems to be no attack that can be leveled that hurts him. one of the reasons i think he attacked bill clinton, and this guy is smart, is he was trying to preempt the attack he is that heis coming at him donated money to the clinton foundation. john: we have seen ted cruz adopt the opposite posture -- never attack donald trump. would your advice be, if trump goes big on the air and starts pummeling his canadian citizenship, would you say, take the gloves off?

>> i would start with, nothing has worked. nothing has stuck to that guy. i would try to find -- try to keep the upper ground. >> if it is a canadian attack, i would not respond. another serious attack that might work with voters, then you think, what am i going to do? ted cruz is really for amnesty. pick up the rubio argument. he has at least got to defend himself. mark: is there a higher imperative to respond to paid media? even though he has not responded to the trump attack? >> he may have to. even then, i would try to keep higher ground. he has done it well so far. mark: say you are hillary clinton advisers. however it plays out, let's say sanders wins iowa and new

hampshire. the results come in and you have lost two in a row. what do you do? >> you have to be gracious about him, play to your strengths. you have to get south carolina, make sure you get the latino and union vote in vegas and reno. you have to bank on the firewall and hope it does not collapse. mark: what is the message if she lost? we are not predicting it, but hypothetically. bob said be gracious. what is your message? >> we have done some things wrong. we will make some changes and come back. >> the problem is the lack of enthusiasm. what has been happening is democrats have accepted hillary. they are not ready to embrace her. john: this is the most fun scenario, the third and final.

donald trump, republican nominee. who would you advise him to consider as his running mate? >> my guess is ted cruz is angling for the spot. john: who would you advise? mark: you have won the new hampshire primary. mr. trump says, i am starting to think about my running mate. fred, who should i consider? >> easy, but self-serving. somebody who knows what they are doing. somebody who can bring ohio. john kasich. >> i think kasich is a good choice. rob portman. mark: you guys are going for balance the ticket. are you sure your advice would not be another military person, another businessman? >> i am so sure that the outsider appeal that may have significant weight for the nomination in the rubble can --

republican party is not enough to win the election. if he is the nominee, the one thing he has to do is reassure people. mark: what about rubio? >> i was about to say. john: put nikki haley on the ticket. how about that? you have problems with women? with a wide range of minorities? >> carly fiorina. >> nikki haley would be a better candidate in that context. first of all, because she is a woman, a governor, successful governor, and a minority. i think that if trump were to have any chance, which i do not, the big thing to do is figure out the electoral math. that means he has to look at florida, he has to look at ohio. there are a lot of states in play normally that would not be

in play. >> somebody the average voter would be comfortable with. mark: if somebody like john think if asked, do you trump wins the first two, will the balance of the party accept him? >> i doubt it. >> they will resist. when he begins to amass the delegates he needs, goes through super tuesday, i think most of them will make their peace with it, even though they fear it could be a defeat. john: i am highly disappointed you did not bring up one of your former clients. sarah palin. [laughter]

>> that is my republican ticket -- trump-palin. i am all for it. thank you for joining us. john: next, we have nicolle wallace, jon meacham, and historical perspective. ♪ ♪

mark: joining us, two folks who know a lot about the presidency. former white house communications director for george w. bush, nicolle wallace and jon meacham, whose book, "destiny and power" can be found at finer bookstores.

it makes an ideal arbor day gift or any other holiday. thank you for joining us. the state of the union, you have had nights where it seemed like the biggest night of the year. does tonight seem like a big night? >> i was thinking about this. tonight is the first of 12 months of last for the president. in the white house, there is a international crisis with the 10 navy sailors taken by the iranians for allegedly being in their waters. in the white house, they are dealing with that crisis. the speechwriters are probably talking about how thank god this is the last time they have to staff a state of the union address. it does become a little melancholy/bittersweet when the president starts doing something for the last time that they had done for eight years. john: when you think about

president obama's states of the union, are any of his state of the union memorable? can this one qualify as standing out because of rhetorical flourish? >> this is almost a pre-farewell address. it is interesting. the news cycle is so fast, you have a farewell address a year out. my sense of his state of the union addresses is that they are memorable for what other people have said. remember the congressman from north carolina who cried out, "you lie"? it was a startling moment because it violated decorum of the house. it gave a sense of the anti- obama feeling in the country. a lot of these speeches have been montages. i remember last year, we joked about obama approvingly quoting

himself from 2004. he said, as i said, there is one america. one of the things that fascinates me about this is that reagan, his second term average, his approval rating was 55%. bill clinton's was 60%. george w., 37%. obama is at 47%, 48%. if we arest as ambivalent to the end. was the last state of the union address that mattered in our politics? i think he gave a powerful state of the union after newtown, but i cannot remember another one anyone talked about. >> i think it was clinton's era of big government being over. it was the recovery speech.

that is almost 20 years ago. >> the speech is almost as outdated as a weekly magazine. the idea that an annual event has any impact on the 24-hour cycle, it does not seem to have any currency. >> it is probably the largest audience you will get. >> depending on what happens. i want to ask you about whether the purported plans the white house has to take a victory lap about the deal that was struck over the iranian nuclear program make sense in light of the 10 -- >> no. the sophisticated foreign policy answer. it does not. >> will they take it out of the speech? >> he will make a case with that look he has occasionally about how important it is to rise to his level, his disappointment we

are not commensurate with him. he will talk about the importance of bringing in the international community but remaining ever vigilant. that is why god created complex sentences. mark: i want to ask you to to ruminate on something about the bushes -- within 45 days, the greatest political comeback of bush political history, or one of the biggest disappointments they will see. what is going on at kennebunkport and dallas as they think about the next 45 days? >> i think they are strategists at heart. i am guessing there are suggestions flying around. but they are a family that, at the end of the day, truly feels each other's defeats forever. spending time with 43, the sons

still feel their father's loss to bill clinton in a way he does not feel any more. this is a family with empathy coursing through their veins in a way that makes political setbacks for any one of the family members more painful for the rest of the family. >> i think they are as puzzled as the rest of us, to some extent, about what forces have led to the durability of the trump phenomenon. mark twain once said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. trump and perot kind of rhyme. i suspect that in houston, they are thinking about outside forces have come along. president bush, 41, believes ross perot cost him the presidency. i do not think that is true, but

they have had billionaires before that complicated their political lives. mark: jon meacham, nicolle wallace, thank you for joining us. the book is "destiny and power." you should buy it. we will be back with a little about iowa and florida after this. ♪ ♪

john: check out our campaign tracker on bloombergpolitics .com. tomorrow, we will be live

from florida, the site of a donald trump campaign rally and have a interview with the donald himself thursday. we take you to our coverage of president obama's final state of the union address. ♪ >> good evening, and welcome to special coverage of president obama's seventh and final state of the union address. ♪ >> the president has signaled he will not present a to do list of legislation and executive actions. he is not playing small ball tonight. the white house will offer a prescription tonight. the president will present his vision of what is left to be done. news from the persian gulf has constant -- collocated the president's plan.

10 sailors have been detained by iran. nikki haley will offer a republican response. this is almost the president's last chance to shape the democratic party. he will speak at a conference this summer, and then he will lose the state. in washington, al hunt and margaret talev. joining us from new york, macon murphy. in a few minutes, the president will be shaking hands, looking for friends and allies. let's look at the task he has set for himself tonight. al, you have covered eight different american presidents. what can be done with the last state of the union address? >> not a great deal. they all try to frame their legacy in the final speech. this will be a victory lap of sorts for barack obama and talk

about where america should go. the context is in congress. progress has been remarkable. unemployment, 5% today. everything that should be going down, like the deficit is going down. profit is going up. but americans feel the country is moving in the wrong direction. they do not think the recovery has been fair. that is a very delicate needle for him to thread. i think it will be one where he talks about a can-do american spirit. >> michelle obama has made her way into the balcony. below, some are clapping enthusiastically. megan, what is achievable? >> let's be honest, not a lot. he will talk about criminal justice reform.

agenda, finally closing guantanamo bay, which has been a priority during his entire time in office, maybe those perhaps he will take executive action on guantanamo day. bay. they are getting support on both sides of the aisle. i don't see him getting a lot done and i think that is why you will hear a lot about the future. s withn: margaret, al all of the stated the union is it the what administration is trying to achieve with the way it is rolling this speech out? margaret: it is not tempering expectations about what he can get done and looking more at -- they have to talk to concentrate us on what you want to get done for the future but he want to get done for 2016 without being explicit. he s