tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg January 13, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EST
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[closing bell] s&p 500 falling below 1400. selling was heaviest intact. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" scarlet: stocks tumbled. we dig into the selling action and find out what is ahead. joe: big banks guerra for earnings. -- dear up for earnings. has seen harold hand $60 oil prices by the end of the year. we will tell you why. scarlet: we begin with the markets. there are different ways of measuring how broad of a decline this is. if you break it into 24 groups, utilities were unchanged. everything else declined led by
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retailers. 500, 37 close time. the rest decline. utilities are higher, that is not a good sign. that speaks to how grim today was. alix: when exxon is the only stock that is positive, usually we blame these on the oil prices. you can't do that this time. did below $30 a barrel. that was a big deal. it was off by not even a dollar. it was an orderly movement overall. you cannot blame this on oil. figure: we are trying to out what the catalyst is. typically it has been china. today in terms of overseas market it has been fairly
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positive. caps,s curious is small they are supposed to be less sensitive to stronger dollar and week overseas demand, they are being hit harder. entering a bear market, down 20% from its peak in june. the big caps off 11% since their highs in may. joe: anyone buying them thinking they would buy global exposure, that did not work out. getting clobbered today. the ceo saying there was a freight recession. we talked about this a couple of days ago. when you look at various ,ategories in cargo transport petroleum being the most glaring , you see a sharp rollover. alix: it is not just about energy. is there something deeper going on in the economy?
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here are the three most important things we saw today. i want to take a deep dive into the terminal to look at the dow jones. it is below moving averages. the destruction that happened in terms of short-term moving averages since january started, below the eight day and the 10 day, this is not a chart you are going to want to look at. , go theow transports go dow. it is a sign of the economy. you have to buy stuff and transport it. this can be seen as a warning sign. scarlet: absolutely. seeking the dow industrials, i'm looking at the intraday point swing. -- we find outm how much the dow moved from peak to trough. we are looking at a 470 point swing from top to bottom. since late december we have seen
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this pattern of higher lows, another way of showing outside moves. you can look at a lot of different things. what is notable about today is the dow rose seven points. swing, only seven points of that was to the upside. else that isg grim, s&p 500 bank index. said thestrategists banks would likely do well in a post rate hike environment? not so much. here is the banks index. you can see where the current level intersects. i think a lot of these predictions about what would do well post rate hike part based on examples of rate hike samples and predicated on the assumption they came when the market was clearly in an inflationary environment.
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the market is nervous about whether the rate hike was justified. not confident at all. you see the banks getting hence. -- getting hit. scarlet: jpmorgan is reporting tomorrow. you can see these charts and more on twitter. alix: i want to bring in our guest, peter. and michael regan. thank you for joining us. scarlet: we have to start with the market selloff. what was the catalyst for today. -- for today? guest: this is the third-fourth row we have seen strong indications overnight of open, then it sees pressure. there was a huge dispersion trade. you had big losers and big winners. we are seeing some selling through there.
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the one thing that is a common theme, there is no fact it is gone. we solve the fed rate hike and have seen increased volatility. joe: for so long the fame was by the dip -- buy the dip. is that dad? can you mechanically make money by but buying every time it goes down? guest: maybe a big dip. but to me it seems likely market -- the 1867 level in s&p 500 where we bottomed out in august, that is a percentage point from where we are now. that is an interesting number. will that bottom hold? it is a question of volatility becomes its own catalyst after a wild. earnings,out the bank
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that is an example of where you can see stock market volatility bleeding over into real world economics. , m&a were ipos postponed deals postponed. a lot of capital market activity delayed because of the uncertainty created in august and summer. it has a lot of people nervous. play devils advocate? is there an argument that part of the selloff was in part selling the winners we saw in 2015 to the point we don't have any buybacks supporting the market? we are heading into earnings. not ait is breakdown. guest: one of the key drivers is apple. to me it is the big cap stock that everyone feels comfortable that they know.
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you hit this route number price break and people had technical support on it. that has been one of the drivers, this turning point in market psychology, if apple can't do well what about these other companies like facebook, where we don't understand what they do. that brought selling pressure. they had big positions. they were winners last year, it is easier to sell. scarlet: you mentioned equity selloff has below key in terms of volatility. what do you mean? guest: that's been one of the interesting things, people are pointing out the next has remained contained through this. it has been elevated from its low of 2015. the market's position for this, market doing well. maybe we have become too complacent. this was the move we needed to get fear, get it to spike and
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build from there. guest: this point of round numbers is excellent. you have to plug a number into your model. apple at 100, oil at $30. it is funny to see how stocks reacted to whether it looked like it would flow $30 a barrel or not. below 1900. s&p 500 joe: you brought this up when we were talking earlier, the russell stocks, the small-cap stocks, they should be doing better in this area where you don't want to be exposed but they are obviously not. why is that? guest: a bot has to do with the data of a stock. datalot has to do with the of a stock. small caps tend to have a high data. --ot of your momentum stocks a lot of caused the outperformance was this data. on the downside --
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guest: this is something we looked at earlier in the year. on china.sn't rely facebook doesn't do much in china. i think that was too easy to attribute the selloff to china before. paying of attention to the underlying dynamics. that was an important factor. that is why we have not hit bottom yet. alix: we have may compare in 2008.ons bear saying something earlier. are we? guest: i sure hope not. i think the banks are in better shape. the credit market is looking scary. guest: we are relatively fine. if you look at the high-yield seeing low debt trading at low prices. you get a reasonable yield. you don't see the leverage throughout the system. your have credit prices when you
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have high credit go bad. our own credit was subprime repackaging. that went bad. you can go back in time whether it was long-term capital, it is always a aaa or high-quality asset that goes bad. that is what people have highly leveraged. we don't have that this time around. we are looking through buying signals, probably 1800 or above that. scarlet: all right. thank you. peter you are sticking with us. coming up, is there a bubble in the high-yield credit market? we look at the major risks, next. ♪
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scarlet: we have breaking news from gopro. the company is cutting 7% of jobs. they have given preliminary revenue numbers for the fourth quarter. looking for $511 million. it is much higher than what gopro is saying. estimate is $40 million more than what gopro indicated. they see restructuring expenses in the first quarter as well. shares are halted from after-hours trading but the supplier is down 6%. alix: you have to take a look at the rise and fall of gopro. you can see that decline.
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it is going to be a tech company and media company. we are now lower from the ipo price of two years ago. scarlet: so much for that media company ambition. let's get to mark crumpton. mark: the house of representatives has approved legislation giving congress oversight of the iranian nuclear deal. 106.ote was 191 -- the white house says president obama will veto the measure if it reaches his desk. says thetary of state agreement with iran could be implemented within days. a police official confirms an avalanche that struck a school group in the outs has killed two french high school students and a ukrainian skier. three others were injured the avalanche struck in the deux
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alps area. new details reported by the associated press that track and field officials contemplated ways to hide the russian doping before the 2012 olympics. iaf officials were already so concerned about russia's doping crisis even as far back as 2009 that they feared athletes could die from blood boosting drugs and transfusions. russia lastof band year after another investigation found the government in place in iaaf banned russia after another investigation. the prison has 24 hour video surveillance of the drug kingpin. the cell where he is get in july
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had a blind spot near the shower. news 24 hours a day, powered by our journalists in 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. alix: high-yield bonds are getting ready for a come back. peter thinks there could be a rebound. you are bullish and high yields. are you still? guest: we have been transferring to leverage loans. they are seen as secure, a cousin of the high-yield market. that is what we have been looking at. high-yield is set to outperform equities. that was our call. we think we will still see that. just because the high-yield market has sold off. very nice.re they are not obligated to be paid. bond coupons have to be paid.
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you get some value in the loan space. the average prices down to $.88 on the dollar. that becomes an interesting point. some companies do experience trouble. that is where you want to be. joe: deutsche bank said there is market, that basically you have energy high-yield where the spreads have gotten blown out outside of that. there is not a lot. what is the best way to play this? forgetone thing people is we take a look at the atf. it became synonymous with energy and high-yield became energy. that wasn't the case. , 20 since one into energy bonds. only $.10 goes in there. fell -- thatrice explains most of the loss.
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it felt very hard. that drag down the whole industry. now you're buying those at cheap levels. you were starting to pick up the credits that do well. health care is not a factor that is going the way in spite of what hillary clinton might want to do to it. i think in high-yield right now you are best off going for a mutual fund or finding an asset in the industry that you trust. it is hard today trade this. you want to go for an investment manager who has more flexibility in the credits they want and to move in and out of credit. if you're a traitor that is where we are. scarlet: compare contrast a demand outlook for us with investment-grade credit versus high yield. guest: that is a real concern print if the stock market relied on the investment-grade market that is where you're getting big deals done. it became a piggy bank for companies. any time they needed money they
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went to the bond market. today we will be tested a little bit. you saw budweiser. scarlet: $46 billion. guest: that deal is trading well in the gray markets. we will see how that does. that will be a big confidence test. the investment-grade corporate market is still fine and that will be a big part of what will support the stocks. if it sells off i become more nervous. scarlet: thank you for joining us today. alix: coming up, liquidity. why is the term often misunderstood? what it really means. ♪
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what did you miss? why is the term liquidity often misunderstood? what does it mean in the first place? we are joined by chris weitz. dedicatedence with 12 fixed income market development, defined liquidity for us. guest: it is one of those terms that is thrown around in 2015. you are probably tired of talking about it. when i people use it it is often -- when i hear people use it it is often the wrong way. it is an expectation you will be able to trade for as much as you want to trade. a lot of people defined it as trading quickly or cheaply. it is predictable immediacy. can i do what i want when i want, whenever i want. , we justappening now
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saw an announcement from avenue back of the announcement from another high-yield mutual fund, they are having problems meeting the liquidity needs. customers are demanding liquidity and cash out of the fund. problemsd 3rd avenue to deliver that capital back and liquidate their bonds. joe: how do you measure it? we have this discussion the last time i was here. it is a subjective term like beauty. what you think is beautiful, what i think is beautiful might be different. we are trying to put measurements around it and make sure those measurements are backward looking measurements. what is the liquidity when everything is calm? what we saw today, it is a most impossible. scarlet: speaking about myths with liquidity.
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the huge bond issuance, $4.6 billion bond issuance. it seems to be that that would be a liquid issue. it is a big bond sale. is that the right way to think about it? guest: that is very en vogue. in 2015 we saw another record-breaking year. 1.4 trillion in the u.s. investment-grade market. it was the least amount of deals we've seen since 2005. we are seeing much bigger deals. this deal was oversubscribed. many were oversubscribed. there is a big appetite. the perception is the deal is so big i should be able to trade it whenever i want because now everyone is holding it. the problem is what if this deal is held by their a few accounts? that is what we saw in the verizon deal which is the biggest we've seen in the investment grade corporate bond
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market. three or four accounts had a large size allocation when the deal broke. that doesn't make it liquid printer on a lot of people who can traded. joe: one of the phenomenons has been these asset managers that have a team leader tens of billions -- how does that affect liquidity of the market? guest: there is a fantastic piece out there. supertanker funds. reading this piece he tells a great story about how supertankers as they made them bigger and bigger had unintended consequences in turn of their -- in terms of their ability to transport from one area to the next. they couldn't fit into certain ports. i love this analogy. there are unintended consequences to size pre-we're seeing complaints about liquidity in financial markets.
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i saw the bank of england, the top asset managers own 30% of financial assets. that is scary to me. that is a situation where it is not necessarily where we have a liquidity problem in the market. we might just have a size market in terms of getting too big. alix: is there a fix for it? guest: in most ecosystems for anything we look at you want to see diversity. participants in the market. onare talking about dealers the marketplace you are supposed to evolve and be market makers where they are bidding and offering that a positioning risk. they can do that by matching customers. few customers have the bonds. how will you matching create a market rate environment that is healthy? scarlet: thank you for painting the picture for us. ceo says ig up, what
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and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. so your business can get back to business.
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sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. scarlet: let's get to mark crumpton with first word news. mark: at least four workers killed in explosion in the factory on the outskirts of shanghai. unclear what caused the blast, but china has a poor record of workplace safety with a lack of government oversight. ony also tend to skimp safety precautions. 2 men indicted on terrorism charges in mali in connection with the terror attack on a luxury hotel that left 20 dead. 2 gunmen armed with assault rifles and explosives stormed the hotel in molly's capital, holding hostages and opening
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fire. they are the first to be charged in the attack. vice president biden says apology was not given or needed after two u.s. votes drifting into iranian waters. iran released the 10 sailors today after holding them for a day in the persian gulf. the u.s. and iran said one of the small boats had mechanical problem. the vice president says the incident was handled in a routine way. biden: there is no need to apologize for it. the boat had a problem. there is no looking for any apology. this is standard medical practice. mark: the vice president interviewed by charlie rose on cbs. issuedry of state kerry a thank you after the americans read. a decade of sanctions on iran may come to an end on monday. is expected to report on friday that iran has met its commitments under the new nuclear accord with world
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powers. that is what iran is saying. once sanctions are lifted, iran would get access to as much as $50 billion of cash, frozen in overseas accounts. plus you can sell more oil on the world market. -- it can sell more oil on the world market. global news 24 hours a day. alix, scarlet and joe, back to you. alix: let's get a recap on how u.s. markets closed. so much for the global stock market rally. if peter doubt after the first -- petered out after the first hour of trading. indexes have closed right off of their lows. members.00 has 500 only 37 of them closed higher. within the dow, only exxon mobil rose. the small-cap index has entered a big bust, down 20% from its peak in may to june. by contrast, the s&p and doubt off by 11%. --s&p and dow off by 11%.
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alix: you can say that about the dow jones transportation average, biotech stocks, about the semis. across the board we are seeing these indices falling into bear market. joe: the one area that held up ok was the utilities, which is always ominous. that is the ultimate defensive category. we also saw banks, perhaps doing well in a rising rate environment. s&p back to back to its lowest levels. the sharesr go pro, are halted after it's going to be cutting 7% of jobs. its fourth-quarter preliminary revenue is going to be $435 million less than what the most bearish analysts had forecast it. alix: today was interesting because the oil price did not fall that much. here is what happened in the long-term oil contracts. come inside the bloomberg
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terminal. this is a forward curve on wti prices. this is what the market things will prices will be down the road. that remind is what the oil price expectation was a week ago. the online is what they are now. -- that green line is what the oil price expectation was a week ago, the orange line is what they are now. analysts are not there at all. barclays has a $75 forecast. other traders have 150. others between $60 and $100. the market as a whole is not ready for $50 oil in 2017 or 2020. joe: hundred $50 oil. at this point, it's like someone have an s&p 6000 target. alix: 2017, and right now the forward curve is trading at $40 a barrel. joe: that is amazing. i want to dive into my terminal.
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i was inspired to make this chart, the federal deficit as a percentage of gdp. in amy think of one of my favorite charts which shows the federal deficit versus the u.s. unemployment rate. this goes back to 1967. you can see how closely they move together. 2 y axes here, you can say they are not perfectly correlated. to me the story is, if you want to reduce the deficit, make the economy get better. you spend less and you get more revenue. ultimately that is what drives it. scarlet: it's not about the economy, it's about the jobs. joe: the economy and jobs are the same, but another lesson is that if you want to reduce the deficit, you won't get thereby reducing spending necessarily. what is really effective is making the job market grow. scarlet: you can see joe's chart on your terminal. it's available for you online. i'm looking to the president's
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claimed that manufacturing created almost 900,000 jobs in the packs six years. -- the past six years. i tallied it up, and it's about right. 860,000 rated since 2010. the white line checks changes in manufacturing jobs. the context is that when the dollar is relative to our trade partners, that coincided with lakes in manufacturing -- with spikes in manufacturing jobs. there is the move to higher manufacturing jobs. more than 200,000 net manufacturing jobs added that year. that is when the talk of manufacturing renaissance began in earnest. the fed raised interest rates, you had a stronger dollar. manufacturing jobs petered out as a result. alix: "what'd you miss?" forget about $30 oil. how about $60 oil? i spoke with the chairman and ceo of continental resources,
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one of the first to discover the shale formation. he says we will sell $60 oil by the end of the year. spent a lot ofot time trying to call bottom on the market. it is where it is. supply and demand works. the lower it goes, the shorter time it's going to be there. that will play out like that. we seen several things that will move the market higher throughout this year. we are close to an inflection point on price. alix: not a bottom, but an inflection point. many see higher prices at the end of this year and in 2017 and 2018. you have to model your price forecast. what is it? guest: everyone has thought about following the strip. that is historically wrong. people don't do that much. looking forward, we have our own estimates of what it will be in the future.
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looking at $60 prices towards the end of the year. i believe that in that is what we look toward. what we have been fighting with is predatory pricing. one that hadonly access. ex million barrels access -- cess production came on the end of the market in 2014. that has been the oversupply. a little over 2 million barrels a day. -- and we plays out are seeing that narrow to almost nothing at the end of the year. alix: you have seen that before when saudi's refused to cut back in the 1990's. the difference now is u.s. shale and the capacity for the u.s. to ask work its oil. -- to export its oil. you have been an advocate for that for some time.
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where is the potential and where is it going to go? guest: i have been a longtime advocate. we were a captive market. less thanof 20 .5% the rest of the world -- you can compete in that environment. now it is the same. 11 hours of trading, wti became the premium price. that was the difference. it was a mechanical thing. we are on a level playing field now with the saudi's. we can certainly play with them. and: to that point, brent wti are trading right around the same price. most analysts are now saying that exports are now on economic because you needed -- uneco nomic because you need to
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justify the transportation costs to asia or europe. guest: that is not the way it works. we have had countries all around the world that could not hit our premium quality. they could not get it. it was not available to them. now it is. shipments are already going out. it's like turning on a switch for exports. we had the capacity. the demand was there, the ships were there, the ship channels and pipelines -- it was all in place. the infrastructure was ready to go, available, and we have seen it turn on. in the future, you will have a market of choice. our banking and legal system is much better to deal with them in iraq. how do you know you're going to get that oil? here, you know you're going to get that oil. it's different than it was in the 1970's.
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we have the resources in the future. horizontal drilling went from $5 million to $10 million in the u.s.. certainly will not turn it all on at once. a lot of people had a lot of discipline in this industry. everybody expected it to bankrupt everybody, but it hasn't. we have dealt with predatory pricing for 40 years, and in the future we will not have to. the saudis played their hand and it's the last hand they've got. alix: more on my conversation with harold hamm after the break. more on what leverage he has to pull in order to survive these low prices. ♪
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scarlet: we want to up do you -- update you on gopro, stock down 22% after its cutting 7% of jobs. it gave a plenary fourth-quarter revenue --preliminary fourth-quarter revenue that missed analysts estimates. alix: more on oil and my interview with continental resources ceo harold hamm, one of the pioneers of the shale industry. he explain why he's not going to be hedging oil at this point. guest: people are starting in production. -- shutting in production. we have already done the same thing, we will do some more. it gets to a certain point where you don't have to sell. you shut them in. that the number differs all over the board. str -- speople shot in
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hut in stripper production. one thing everybody is missing. 4-6%rical decline has been on a conventional race horse. with horizontally drilled fields, the reason you do that is to accelerate production and decline rates. these decline rates are about 20% more on average on horizontal field. it's going to drop a lot quicker than anybody thought. most people are not taking that into consideration, and they needed to. alix: the bigger question themes going forward is when we see a price recovery, how quickly can you get the the completion crews back? how quickly can you turn back on the rigs that you have shuttered? guest: that is an excellent point. in the structure goes away. -- infrastructure goes away.
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people go away. most people shut down drilling about 75%. that's a much it has fallen. how long does it take to get that back? just as long as it did to going down. it takes a good while. we have been in this 14-15 months. you will see it take at least that long to turn around. low supplying to a situation unfortunately, in the world. alix: it seems like a buffer could be those wells that were drilled but not completed. it could save some cost. how quickly can those be turned back on? guest: that is going to mitigated some -- mitigate it some. will not mitigate it drastically. completion crews have also gone
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away. people moved to different areas. it takes a good while to ramp backup. alix: my last question is -- you took off from hedges last year, expecting higher prices. that did not materialize. when we get to 60-65, will you consider putting on hedges for continental? guest: no, i'm not looking at putting hedges back on at this point. we are very well hedged with natural gas, about 75%. we are in pretty good shape in that area. capx.ody protected that movie made made us look at the picture -- move we made made us look at the whole picture a lot quicker. we made sure we had all of our costs in line. alix: the ceo of continental resources. guys, this chart shows exactly what he was talking about. this orange line is a bargain will production -- oil
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production. the yellow line is the rigs turning off. they don't turn up until 2016, then 140 rigs needed by the end of 2017 to get production back to the level where it was before it started to fall. you don't just flip the switch on and off. it's going to take at least 2 years to get production back to the level that we are seeing it now. that is why he sees that supply shortfall between rigs in production. scarlet: it's like that supertanker theory. we are not talking about a supertanker, but it's much longer than you think. alix: that your building houses right here. -- they are building houses right now. scarlet: we will turn to banks. we will tell you what you can't miss in terms of gpm numbers.
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scarlet: "what'd you miss?" looks like another lackluster quarter for banks. jp morgan is the focus of this week's "the numbers don't lie." .ampered buy new regulations analysts project he revenue growth of 26% by 2017. by 2017. up to 6% profitability should increase for banks as a whole. return on assets is seen improving through 2017. that would be the blue line. four jp morgan, improving credit costs has restored recoverability. cutting, howost
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many different ways can you measure it? investors are focused on metrics like efficiency ratio is. jp morgan driving $2 billion of cost in its consumer unit. the bank is targeting a 55% ratio. but they are not including legal expenses, which is reflected here. with the fed keeping rates near zero, banks of seen a bread-and-butter business that is making money off of loans decline. now that the fed has embarked on raising rates, analysts estimates that net margins should increasing or stabilize. watch for j.p. morgan and talk of its fortress balance sheet at 7:00 a.m. when it releases fourth-quarter earnings. alix: bloomberg news by quarter -- news reporter joins us now. estimates have fallen for all of the banks. stocks are getting completely hit. what is going on? guest: carnage and capital markets. you have oil slumping. china being concerning.
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high-yield going up in the fourth quarter. we talk about piece by piece. the wall street factory helping companies issue junk debts ground to a halt in the fourth quarter. that is going to be a big part of their business. jp morgan is down 14 percent in the past two years. -- past two weeks, which is stunning. scarlet had the chart about decreasing profitability as they get help from the fed. if growth is sidelined because of all the things china, oil, and always of the factors, they may not get help from the dead. may be the profitability for this outlook is much murkier than what people though. joe: when you look at that earnings reports tomorrow, getting a handle on it, what is the first number that you think will be the most interesting for the market? guest: revenue.
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you want to look at overall revenue. quite often it has been very flat. then you look at expenses. i take a look at the stock chart and see if that gives you hence. quite often it's not until 5-10 minutes past that we get an idea of what direction to take that day. scarlet: here is the thing about jp morgan. we focus on the capital markets, commodities and equity trading. yet the consumer unit accounts for the biggest share of profits. and it is often overlooked. commercial and industrial loans are rising by the legitimacy largest, but that often gets overlooked. what are the good parts of j.p. morgan's results that people are not appreciating? guest: if jamie dimon for here, he would say there's a fire revenue streams. -- diversify revenue streams. you can figure out how the results are going to be in any
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given quarter. trading is a black box. we learn more about it when they report results. scarlet: in terms of legal overhangs, is there anything we need to watch out for in jp morgan? guest: they can surprise you and suddenly have a $1 billion legal charge. i don't know if there is anything specific on the horizon. it would be worrying if it went back up to $1 billion. alix: thank you so much. a very busy man for the next few days. coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading desk. ♪
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intel earnings reporting after the close. and intel cfo stacy smith will be joining us at 4:30 p.m. eastern time. in so sees its -- intel sees its 2016 sales rising in single digits. meeting, have the boe nothing really expected. sterling has fallen since the dollar. thbe ecb will be posting their account of the december meeting, which disappointed everybody. interestingbe some factoids there. joe: tomorrow i will be looking at initial jobless claims. how the labor data is holding up, but also beating expectations while other economic data has been disappointing. will they converge, and when? which one will converge with the other? i love the initial claims.
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