mark: there's only one sick of the matters tonight. tickets that matters tonight. where outside the bay center arena here in pensacola florida. donald trump is holding a massive rally.

barry manilow has a concert at the same venue. tonight is all about the republican front-runner and his loyal fans. we talked to a lot of trump supporters as they arrived. our brand-new iowa poll. ted cruz and donald trump are leading the pack. they are basically within the margin america. donald trump versus ted cruz has occurred. until now he has held his tongue when it comes to donald trump. here's the back-and-forth between the two top arrivals in the last 24 hours. cruz: he may shift in his

new rallies to playing new york new york because donald comes from new york and he embodies new york values and the donald seems to be a little bit rattled. donald trump: if you're a citizen of canada and your born in canada there is a real question. a lot of people say you have to be born on the land. not just professor laurence tribe of harvard. a big article in the washington post said the same thing. trump is relying on ultra-left-wing law professors to make this argument. the same professors he is relying on are major supporters for hillary clinton. donald trump: not a lot of evangelicals come out of cuba. cruz: when some is attacking your faith that means they're

getting really nervous. donald trump: i am beating ted cruz a lot with evangelicals. i will do very well in iowa. i like ted cruz. but he's got a basic problem. mark: the gloves are off. has he chosen the right moment to hit back? john: it might be a little too late. we are still two half weeks away from iowa. nowink he is heading back because he has already begun his slide. mark: i think he timed it to the debate. it was important for him to practice his lines before the debate.

i think these two guys tomorrow you will see action between the two of them. even their standing not just in the iowa poll but overall, this is the matchup everybody should be watching. john: the substance of it. trying to win this argument on larry tribe ultra-left-wing liberal lawyers, new york values. it is weak beer. you have to hit donald trump hard. something stronger than that. isk: it is not clear what effective against trump. saying that he is rattled, maybe he thinks he can rattle him by calling him rattled. iowa, new york values mean something.

pat buchanan uses talk about new york bankers. cruz is a product of princeton and harvard law school. below them are ben carson and marco rubio. else in this race is down below 5%. carson still leading among evangelicals. rubio has emerged as the dominant choice of those who support an establishment candidate. it is not all clear sailing for rubio. we have expected somebody to go participationhis on immigration legislation. at that moment it is here. withting early states digital media showing rubio voting for that immigration bill.

being praised by barack obama. and chuck schumer. obama: a group of senators announced their principles for comprehensive immigration reform. >> the so-called gang of eight has wrapped up months of negotiations. a pathway to citizenship. the man at the center is marco rubio. chuck schumer: his fingerprints are all over that bill. he understood it and he promoted it. john: it is not a real ad. hammers the shape of the that is about to come down on rubio. mark: my hat is off to whoever did this video. it tells the story in a very accessible way.

behind the podium laughing and enjoying the company of chuck schumer. they have to believe a come back here. there's so much noise now it is possible that people waited too long. there will be some paid media on this issue. it remains a hot button issue. the shapeton as it is of the hammer suggests it is as big a problem as any of the top candidates face. john: it is a big problem for marco rubio. the content of that ad the substance of it is powerful in this party at this time. mark: the people may of waited too long with this attack.

they could've done serious damage in november or december. they have a lot of money in the bank. south carolina governor nikki haley gave the republican response to the state of the union address. that rebuttal speech is hard to execute. she got some good reviews. out the siren call of the angry voices in the party. she later acknowledged that she was referring to donald trump. the reaction was split. paul ryan praised nikki haley. a good visiond it for the future. ingram said the governor missed an opportunity to stand with working people.

and coulter said trump should deport nikki haley. what do these widely divergent reactions tell us? john: a republican party that does not embrace the message of nikki haley and the messenger like nikki haley with open arms is a party that has significant problems. we know their deep cleavages in the party. this is a relatively small thing compared to some other things. but it illustrates just how deep those cleavages are. that she should be deported, that is ugly rhetoric. mark: the person chosen to give the official republican response acknowledging that she is part of her response not to go after obama or hillary but to criticize the man who is the overwhelming front runner in the gop.

and leading in her own state. john: there is passion on both sides here. nikki haley is passionate about donald trump as an coulter is about nikki haley. that is why the party is in so much trouble. mark: if donald trump win some commendation of these early three, we will see a huge fight within the party of like i can see recall seeing in my career. this is a fight for the soul in the future of the republican party. the latest clinton-sanders salvo. will break out our gop crosstabs out of iowa. the site of donald trump's massive mega-rally here in pensacola florida. after this. ♪

john: hillary and chelsea clinton launched a full throated attacks on bernie sanders record. sanders strikes back today. here is how the vermont senator defended himself. sanders: to say that i am a supporter of the nra is really mean-spirited and unfair and inaccurate. whetherting to hear secretary clinton has changed reviews from 2008 and whether or not she will support the expansion of social security benefits for millions of elderly people.

now she is attacking me because i support universal health care. in 2008 she was attacking obama universale supported health care. i would hope that secretary clinton will tell the american people does she support universal health care? team sanders also took to twitter. a picture from 1993 featuring sanders and clinton there is a note from hillary that says thanks for your commitment to real health care access for all s.erican how well is sanders dealing with this? mark: that awesome archival photo. they are planning a major league response on this. they believe the clinton

health-care attack is both ineffective and disingenuous. fall into e trap of thinking just because sanders has momentum is hillary out of this. she is in this fight. she is now facing an opponent who is pushing back cleverly and confidently and smartly. campaign is onrs defense still over the gun thing. there's reasons for that. but she moved on to this health care thing and you can have a lot of argument back and forth on this. the bottom line is they are trying to argue the bernie who wants single-payer medicare for all health care is somehow going to restrict health coverage. it is not going to fly. it is ridiculous. if you ask hillary supporters would you like single payer, they would like it.

it is not effective. on sunday. debate he has not been as good in the debates as he has been in other parts of the campaign. that debate is becoming huge. we wereay notice, stunned to hear chelsea clinton go negative on bernie sanders. today on good morning america hillary clinton defended her daughter. chelsea's foray into the rough-and-tumble of campaigning. i enjoy mynton: daughter. i know what she was saying. if you look at senator sanders proposals going back nine times. that is exactly what he proposed. market: we don't know if this stone is the new normal for chelsea. the next democratic debate is scheduled for this saturday. the lack of interest that most of the news world had to her remarks.

of our media colleagues were is blown away as we were. were we crazy? john: i don't think we were crazy. we got a lot of blowback on this yesterday. chelsea clinton has every right to campaign for her mother. she has every right to defend her mother. it is unprecedented in her history where she has gone and by name attacked one of her mother's political opponents. the reason we thought it was important was that communicated the depth of the clinton world's concern about the momentum of bernie sanders. it is the daughter of a president the daughter of a potential president. in is a historical figure our country. we have watched her grow up. yesterday was the day she

decided to assume a different role than she had ever played in the history of us following the clintons. maybe people think you saw the layoff chelsea. as parents they said when they were in the white house laid off her. she is now in adults and a campaign surrogates attacking bernie sanders. the notion of laying off her is ridiculous. john: is muscle memory for the media. they did a lot to shield chelsea when she was a kid. they are still sort of aghast and a gog and stunned into silence. the great data detective. all the mysteries about donald trump and ted cruz. when we come back. ♪

my next guest represents the gold standard of polling. the pride of des moines. hank you for joining us, ann. two-personows a race, donald trump and ted cruz. within the margin of error. let's talk about donald trump first. strengths that are emerged from this? people speculated that he may be bringing in first time

caucus-goers. he leads with first time caucus-goers. he also does well with moderate voters in iowa. that is a relatively small group but it is an interesting group for trump. he has a strong share of his supporters who say that their minds are made up. they are locked in. that is the most important thing you can do as a candidate. to get your people to lock in. two out of three of his supporters say their minds are made up. mark: how does that compare to pass candidates? we still have people who are keeping an open mind. it is the assignments iowa gets to look at the largest field of candidates. their neighbors are going to try to get them to change their

minds. having two out of three say that they won't budge, that is a good number. john: let's ask about ted cruz. what we know about ted cruz? he is doing well with groups that any candidate would want to have. the people who most reliably show up on caucus night. people who've done this before and they know the drill. seniors. people who are very conservative. that is a group who tends to be the hardest core of the hard-core. he's doing well in the fourth district. is a district where turnout is always higher than you would expect just based on population. it is a very republican district. he turned people out.

the same is true of evangelicals. you look at their polling numbers and you think about is the proportion that will be there. he more evangelicals show up. ted cruz has a 20 point advantage. that is nice to have. mark: we did a deeper dive on ted cruz. we asked a lot of questions about his background and his campaign style. what did we find out they are? you have people who really like him because he agitates and angers people in congress. he has taken such a strong stance on immigration. thee things contrast with fact that he has christian values and they expected to uphold them and he has avoided

criticizing trump. he has the naughty and the nice. john: given the way the caucuses work, the second choice matters a lot. talk a little bit about that. second choice is a question we would to because anything can happen. knowing what the backup choice is, so many things show ted cruz and donald trump being shadow images of each other. they appeal a lot is hard to separate them. 47% of trump supporters would vote for cruise. only 25 percent of ted cruz supporters who would vote for trump.

mark: there will be more polling by the des moines register and bloomberg. right now if you look at where trump is and where ted cruz is, they bothible to say have advantages and disadvantages? does one of them seem to be better positioned? the biggest advantage donald trump has is that they , his supporters. for ted cruz, he has a lot of people who say it will definitely show up on caucus night. it's like powerball. you can't win if you don't play. and you can't win the iowa caucuses of your people don't show up. ted cruz has a small advantage in having people who say they will definitely show up. for now, small advantage to ted cruz.

mark: there is a clear race for first. a two-manplace now race between ben carson and marco rubio? it is between those two. they are just appoint a part it will not look like a real clear third-place winner. mark: thank you so much. we will have the democratic numbers tomorrow. talk.t, trump after this. ♪

when you're on hold, your business is on hold. that's why comcast business doesn't leave you there. when you call, a small business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. no annoying hold music. just a real person, real fast. whenever you need them. so your business can get back to business. sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. john: we are back here in pensacola, florida, where donald

j trump is holding another one of his famous rallies. great to have you here. how many of these have you covered? >> dozens. john: they are a signature of his campaign. from the beginning to now, how have the mega rallies changed? >> in a lot of ways, they are the same. he is getting big crowds. when he is in places like pensacola, he is getting thousands of thousands -- thousands and thousands of people showing up. that has been happening since august. what has changed, people in the audience are having to decide if they want to vote for him or not. it is not new when he says, we will build a wall.

who is going to pay for it? the audience will respond, mexico. john: kind of like the rocky were picture show. everyone likes to repeat the lines. game, everybody says, you have to give your e-mail address. these events?e at does trump have a ground game? : that is a good question. what he is doing is different than what most campaigns normally do. most campaigns start with a list of people who usually go to and build from there. he is starting from scratch. collecting information -- mark: not a traditional voter

file, but a trump voter file. -- my growingike suspicion as they are building a bigger operation than they are telling people. the you have that suspicion as well? is the impression they want us to have. a big part of his strategy, if you can get 10,000 people to show up to a rally, if some percentage of them can go to a primary, they think they can win in a lot of states. iowa is different with the caucuses. people need to be in place by 7:00. i think iowa is going to be the test. if he can win iowa, there has been this underground strategy that we have not seen that will

suddenly whirl into action. if we see problems in iowa, that will raise questions about what he is doing in other states. mark: there is the ground game and then there is the air war. he went on the air. take to get donald to go on the air with a negative spot? what would have to happen? jenna: i have given up trying to predict anything with donald trump. he seems hesitant to spend money on television ads. it does not seem to be something he wants to invest in. especially when he seems to be doing well in the polls. it will take a major change in the polls. he will need to feel threatened

and feel like he needs to get ,is message out to more people much more quickly than he is. keep in mind, he is on television a lot. it might not be an ad, but his face is on a lot of televisions every hour. mark: you have done a good job of writing about these events. mega-events, what are things that happen at these events -- for people who have never been, what stuff happens? louder.hey are much it does have the feeling of a circus or a rock concert. people are waiting outside for hours to get in. they are buying the hats and the flags and the signs. the big difference between smaller events that trumpet does in iowa and new hampshire and

big events like this, you can see him feeding off the crowd. he gets so much energy off these crowds. they are almost egging him on. he will go a little bit further in a stance because he is getting the very positive feedback from the crowd and he will keep laying it on them to keep them cheering. john: let's talk about the current conflict in trump world. he has been working this birther angle for a little while. ted cruz is finally hitting back. in thisrump went direction, he seemed to be struggling for a toehold. is this the line that he is -- has settled on? do you think you will shift off that it some point and go on to topics.ti-cruz jenna: we were all kind of for him to gong

there. overheardcolleagues ted cruz his wife saying that they expected trump to go after ted cruz. he started off throwing the idea out there. the last couple of days, we have seen him really ramp it up, really hit it hard. him that thereth is a question, there are things about ted cruz they did not know. for as long as this is resonating, he will keep with it. when he finds something that resonates, he just keeps hammering it. .ohn: like a dog with a bone he has tagged some of his opponents low energy. he has extraordinary stamina for a man his age, for anybody. do you ever see him look or act

tired? jenna: he does have a lot of energy. i am a little younger than he is and i am exhausted. you have to keep up with him on a commercial flight. jenna: his events will go for an hour, one hour and 10 minutes. if he has been going really hard and getting tired, you will see him cut it off at 50 minutes. not have as much energy as he normally does. back in december, we were in iowa and he started losing his voice. he had done so many rallies. for a guy who really prides himself on being youthful, having a younger wife, having a nine-year-old son, not sleeping much, working all the time -- mark: it was stunning to me when he lost his voice.

jenna: exactly. john: jenna, you are fantastic. we will have you back on very soon. when we come back, trump supporters in their own words, what they think about ted cruz. ♪

mark: you are looking live at a line of trump supporters and other interested people in pensacola, florida. they're waiting to see a big donald trump rally. the war of words between the two republican frontrunners, trump

is well represented. we thought we would test the limits of the theory of whether trump supporters echo what he says. we tested it here, we asked folks in line what they thought of ted cruz and why trump over ted cruz. why do you prefer donald trump over ted cruz? >> donald trump speaks to the groundswell of population of america. he is addressing the fears on the concerns that we have. up and istrump speaks speaking about everything the american people are sitting around the table saying. >> ted cruz is a smart guy, constitutionally sound. he does not have the stamina that trump has. >> the problem is that he is a

politician. they are only controlled by special-interest and they can only get so much done. >> when i hear him talk, i see another mitt romney. he is going to play by the rules and to the right thing and be nice. still has a little bit of a politician side to him. donald trump is an open book. >> i do like ted cruz, but he will be a little wishy-washy on some things trying to get favors here and favors their. -- favors here and favors there. trump appeals to not only republicans, but to independents and democrats.

>> we have donald trump, an outsider, a businessman. he knows how to get things done. i am past the point of having to have a true conservative. greathink he would make a vp. ticket would be great. mark: i have been with trump andorters and cruz people sanders folks, i am so impressed with the voters in this cycle. be anthis was going to election with a high degree of interest in it. you have these candidates, because they are outsiders, they are challenging the establishment, our drawing a

particular kind -- our drawing a particular kind of voter and those voters are riveted. they may not be super sophisticated about a lot of things, but they are observing the mechanics of this, especially through cable television, at a high level of intensity. they are picking up the campaign cues and they talk the talk. mark: sunday night 8:00 on showtime, we will debut "the circus." we will take a look at the outsiders. energy.pporters have they are passionate about the country, schmidt about change -- passionate about change. they believe in their candidate as a person and they also believe in their candidates ideas. on that,put a slight it is not just that they have

off.on, they are placed issed mark: they are outsiders to say washington has to change. change,ll street has to washington has to change, big business has to change. tok: in the past, you try talk to people in line, for most campaigns, it is hit or miss. trump supporters, sandra supporters, talk, talk, talk. the success rate is 90%. they are, like, put me on tv. john: you had a certain kind of voter who hated the media. a lot of people are happy to be on camera. mark: they hate the media, but they want to use it. the campaign songs of

2016. we will be right back with that. ♪

>> i am trying to think of a good song for donald trump. >> i would have to go with "we are the champions." >> i like the star-spangled banner myself. those were donald trump supporters hanging out in the cola waiting for the big rally -- in the cola -- in pensacola, florida, waiting for the big

rally. >> what is my favorite traditions is when celebrity musicians get angry because politicians have used their songs without permission and primary events. -- in primary events. all politicians are looking for musical cues to strike emotional cords and their audience. -- cues to strike emotional cords in their audience. ofone listens to the lyrics born in the usa of the social universe happening over and over again, politicians not realizing the message of the songs they are adopting. it is no different this year. >> ♪ it's the end of the world as we know it ♪ >> donald trump through the iron re michael stipe -- drew the i

of michael stipe. that is a cease and desist. though, areting, the artist that do align themselves with a candidate. we're not going to take it anymore ♪ gleefully endorsed. >> i do support his spirit and attitude. sanders has a wide .pectrum of supporters hillary clinton is big with musicians, too.

"firework" atngs eight rally in iowa. -- at a rally in iowa. let's not leave out martin o'malley. the dropkick murphys love him. read curious who kid rock is a boring? -- were you curious who kid rock is supporting? ben carson. korn isd singer of into rand paul. fiorina, donnie wahlberg. let us not forget the drill sergeant from full metal jacket is a proud ted cruz supporter. one of the most prominent musicians in the world right

now, jesse hughes is the lead singer of eagles of death metal, the band was playing the show at the theater when terrorists attacked. the band escaped and has since played a benefit concert with paris.-- u2 in does he have a favorite candidate? he is a donald trump supporter. d snider is old news. jesse, donald, i feel like you two should meet. john: the guy from eagles of death metal is a trump supporter . kind of incredible. has there ever been a piece of music that has matched up better u2 with brock obama -- with barack obama? back after this

with a very long tease. ♪

24/7 on are live bloombergpolitics.com. check out our campaign tracker for all of the latest updates. mark: hit refresh, refresh, refresh. tomorrow, a special preview show. we will be in charleston, south carolina. we will have our sitdown interview with mr. donald j trump. i think it is one of the last interviews he does before the

debate. the current face-off he is having with ted cruz. every republican debate has seemed to be a big debate. something about as we get closer iowa and new hampshire, and what is happening in the field, every time we predicted fisticuffs, it has not happened. but i think it will happen tomorrow night. mark: south carolina debates tend to be raucous. i do not know if there is liquor being served at this one. there isfired up and something about these debates in south carolina. both parties. hillary clinton, john edwards, barack obama. john mccain, george bush. john: every cycle seems to have

a drunk south carolina debate. i will do my part to make sure this is a drunk debate. john: from all of us here in the florida,in pensacola, our poll on the democrats, you want to see that at 6:00 a.m. on bloombergpolitics.com. thank you for watching. we will see you tomorrow from south carolina. sayonara. ♪

emily: you are watching "bloomberg west." iran has released the 10 american sailors they detained after two boats drifted into

waters. a decade of sanctions on iran may end on monday. the iaea is opposed to it initial -- with a final report. the house approved the republican backed legislation giving congress greater oversight of the landmark iran nuclear deal. the vote was 191-106. president obama will likely veto the measure. michigan national guard leaders have arrived in flint for briefings on the drinking water crisis. the water became contaminated with too much lead. two french schoolchildren and the ukrainian skier died today after an avalanche in the french alps. three others are injured. for the first