john: i am john heilemann. mark: i am mark halperin. there is only one ticket that matters tonight. on the show tonight, trumpapalooze and trumparoo. we are outside the base center arena in pensacola. donald trump is holding a massive rally tonight. very mellow -- barry manilow has a concert in the next couple weeks. right now, it's all about the

republican candidate. we've talked to trump supporters as they arrived all day. we will have that later in the show. first, our bloomberg politics iowa poll shows ted cruz and donald trump leading the pack in the hawkeyes they. --hawkeye state. our has gone up 6% from december poll. trump is up 1%. a long-awaited development in the race between trump and cruise has occurred. until now, he has held his tongue when it comes to donald trump, but that detente is over as john predicted it would be,. here is the back-and-forth between the top gop rivals in the last 24 hours. >> what is he getting at there? >> i think he may shift in his new rallies to playing "new york, new york." he embodies new york values.

the donald seems to be rattled. >> when you are a citizen of canada and you were born in canada, there's a question. a lot of people say, you have to be born of the land, meaning on the land, and i have read numerous articles -- not only professor laurence tribe of harvard -- there was a big article in "the washington post" from a different group of lawyers. >> i will note that mr. trump is relying on ultraleft wing liberal law professors at harvard to make this argument, and the same professors he is relying on are major supporters for hillary clinton. >> i do like ted cruz, but not a lot of evangelicals come out of cuba. >> anytime someone starts attacking her faith, it suggests they are getting nervous. >> nationwide, i'm beating ted cruz a lot with evangelicals, and in the end, i'm going to do well in iowa. i can't predict, but i think i

will do very well in iowa. i like ted cruz. he's got a problem, but i like ted cruz. john: as they say in backgammon, the gloves are off. maybe it's not backgammon. mark: as ted cruz chosen to start moment? john: it might be too late. you are starting to see him hit back. he's not too late in terms of where the caucuses are. we are still two weeks away. that's a long way to the caucuses. i think he is hitting back now is because he has already begun his wide -- slide. mark: i think trump escalated and didn't stop. it was important for him to get the notion practice before the debate. tomorrow night, there is always speculation, who is going to be in the spotlight? what are the moderators force it or not, you are going to see action between the two of them. given their standing overall, this is the matchup everybody is

going to be watching. john: i want to go to a different point, which is not about the timing of it, but over the substance, the nature of the defense. argument onn this larry tribe, ultraleft wing liberals, i think it's week beer. if you are going up against donald trump, you've got to come back with something stronger. mark: it's not clear what is effective against trump. i think saying he is rattled is a shot across the brow -- bow. i think the new york values thing is where cruz is going to go, particularly to hold trump off in iowa. people in iowa, as nice as they are to us, new york values means something. john: i will tell you what. ted cruz, son of princeton and harvard law school, is going to have a hard time making the elitist case against donald trump.

just below trump and cruise in the new paul, ben carson and marco rubio, battling it out for the third ticket out of iowa. everyone else in this race, at or below 5%. carson is leaning on evangelicals. and just11% overall, above, marco rubio has emerged as the dominant choice of caucus-goers who say they will support an establishment candidate. it's not clear sailing for rubio. we have long thought someone would go after him for participation in the gang of eight legislation.the super pac supporting cruz is spending $200,000 targeting early states with a video showing rubio promoting that toxic immigration bill on the right and being praised by barack obama and chuck schumer. yesterday, ama: bipartisan group of senators announced their principles for comprehensive immigration reform, which are very much in

line with the principles i have proposed and campaigned on. >> the so-called gang of eight has wrapped up months of negotiations and will present a bill that includes a pathway to citizenship for many of the 11 million immigrants. the man at the senate -- center of bringing this group together, senator marco rubio. >> his fingerprints are all over that bill? >> did he resist the pathway to citizenship? >> no, he understood it. john: this is just a web video. it's not a real ad. it shows you the shape of the that is about to come down on marco rubio's head. now knowing the shape of the hammer, how much damage can be hammer do? mark: hats off to whoever did it. it's well produced. it tells the story in an accessible way. there's the pa who got the clips. it shows rubio behind the podium laughing and enjoying the company of chuck schumer. i think the review people

believe that they've got a comeback. it's also the case that there is so much noise, it's possible people waited too long. there is going to be some paid media that does go on television on this issue. as confident as the review team is, the shape of that hammer suggests this is as big of a problem as any of the top candidates face. john: you took a while to wanderjohn: around towards the truth. yes, this is a big problem for marco rubio. i am surprised it has taken this long, but the content of that ad, the substance of the argument, is powerful in this party at this moment, as the people at this rally will attest. mark: as you said, ted cruz could have waited too late. people could've done serious damage to rubio in november and december, but the cruz campaign has husbanded its resources. if cruz is not successful, people are going to question the decision to not use it earlier.

last night, after president obama's state of the immune address, south carolina governor nikki haley did the republican response. her speech was one that is hard to execute, doing the rebuttal. haley got some good remarks. she called out "the angry voices in the party." she later acknowledged she was referring to donald trump. the reaction in the party was spli paul ryan, the speaker of the house, praised haley on twitter for pushing a positive message. jeb bush called it a "clear vision for a brighter future." some leading conservative force -- voices panned what the governor said. laura ingram said ann coulter simply tweeted, trump should deport nikki haley. what do these widely divergent reactions to her speech tell us about the status of trump in the

party and of the debate in the party? john: a republican party that does not welcome the message of nikki haley and a messenger like nikki haley with open arms is a party that has significant troubles. we know there are deep cleavages in the party. this is small compared to the tectonic things in the republican party, but it is illustrative of what those divides are. saving nikki haley should be deported? that is ugly rhetoric from somebody who is supposedly an ally. mark: step back to another piece. you have the prospect of the person chosen for the republican response used part of her remark to criticize the men who is the overwhelming front runner for the republican nomination and leading in her oate.wn st john:john: when i say there are deep cleavages, there is passion on both sides here.

nikki haley is as passionate about donald trump negatively as an coulter is about nikki haley. that is why the party is in so much trouble. mark: this foreshadows the fight we will see if donald trump wins some combination of iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, we will see a titanic fight within the party. john: not just a titanic fight in its size but it's consequence. this is a fight for the soul and future of the republican party.up next, the latest clinton-sanders salvo. later, we have master pollster -- a master pollster on to break down our pull out of iowa. ♪

the big political headline yesterday was hillary and chelsea clinton's attacks on bernie sanders' record on guns and health care. the headline today, sanders strikes back. here's how the vermont senator defended himself earlier today. >> to say that i'm kind of a supporter of the nra is a mean-spirited and unfair and inaccurate statement. the big political headline i am waiting to hear whether secretary clinton has changed her views from 2008, whether or not she will support an expansion of social security benefits for millions of elderly people. now she is attacking me because i support universal health care. in 2008, she was attacking obama because obama was attacking her because she supported universal health care. i would hope that secretary clinton will tell the american

people, does she support universal health care? john: team sanders also took to twitter to offer a cheekier and in some ways more powerful response to the clinton onslaught, a black and white picture from 1993 featuring sanders and clinton, and hand at the bottom of the picture is a note from hillary that says -- to bernie sanders, thanks for your commitment to real health care access for all americans. how well is sanders dealing with clinton going negative on him? mark: in that awesome archival photo, they are playing a major league response on this, and they are fired up. they believe that the clinton health care attack is both ineffective and disingenuous. let's not fall into the trap of thinking just because sanders has momentum that clinton is out of this. she is in this fight. they are now facing an opponent

in this news cycle who is pushing back cleverly and calmly. john: the sanders campaign is on defense over the gun thing, and there are reasons for that. she has the upper hand. mark: she left it to do health care. john: she moved on to this health care argument. you can have a lot of spats back and forth about this. the bottom line is, they are trying to argue that bernie sanders who want single-payer, medicare for all is going to strip health care coverage for millions of americans. it's just not going to fly for most voters. mark: of course, if you ask supporters inn their heart, including people who work for her, would you like single-payer, they would like single-payer.i don't think it's effective. they have a debate sunday. sanders has not been good in the debates as he has another part of the campaign. that debate becomes huge. john: last one before i went. mark: as you may have noticed on

this program last night, we were stunned to hear chelsea clinton go negative on bernie sanders. today on "good morning, america," hillary clinton defended her daughter and welcomed chelsea's foray into the rough and tumble of campaigning. >> i'd or my daughter, and i know what she was saying -- i adore my daughter, and i know what she was saying. if you look at senator sanders' proposals, that is exactly what he has proposed. mark: we probably won't know if this new tone is the new normal for chelsea. her next campaign event is scheduled for this saturday in iowa. more striking was a lack of interest that most of the news world had to her remarks. very few of our fellow media colleagues were as blown away by chelsea's rhetoric as we were. you have had a day to think about it. were we crazy to think this was a huge deal? john: i do not think we were crazy. i think we were right.

we got a lot of blowback on this. i want to be really clear. never -- hason has every right to campaign for her mother. she has every right to do whatever she wants to do. it is unprecedented in her history on planet earth that she has gone out and attacked one of her mother's political opponents, in a presidential contest, in eighth on it contest -- a senate contest. it indicated the depth of the clinton world's concern about the momentum of bernie sanders. that is why it is meaningful. mark: it's meaningful for that reason. it's also meaningful because it is chelsea clinton. she is the daughter of a president. she is the daughter of a potential president. we have watched her grow up. yesterday was the day when she decided to assume a different role than she had ever played in the history of us following the clintons. i believe that maybe people think, you have to lay off chelsea clinton because the

but she is nowo, an adult and a campaign surrogate attacking bernie sanders.the notion of laying off her seems ridiculous . fair coverage, but not no coverage. it's muscle memory with a lot of the media. people remember that the clintons did a lot to shield chelsea when she was a kid. in some ways, people have not talked about it because there is this gag. coming up, the great data detective and seltzer and all the mysteries about trump and cruz and our new iowa poll. we will unravel those with her when we come back. ♪

mark: our next guest represents the gold pandered -- standard upholding. polling.rd of ann selzer joins us. the poll shows a two-person race at the top of the field, cruz and trump tied. let's talk about trump first since he is the national leader. what are trump's strengths that emerge from this poll? ann: there are some interesting groups. first of all, people speculated he may be bringing in first-time caucus-goers. he leads with first-time caucus-goers. he also does well with moderate voters.in iowa , the republican caucus-going

public, that's a small group, but it's an interesting group for trump. most importantly, he has a strong share of his supporters who say their minds are made up. they are locked in. that is the most important thing you can do is a candidate, get your people to lock in, especially when you have a big field of candidates. 64%, two out of three of his supporters say their mind is made up. ann, how does that number compared to past candidates? is that a particularly large number at this stage? are getting awfully close, but you still have people who are getting an open mind. iowa gets to look at the largest field of candidates available. neighbors are going to try to politic people into changing their minds, and a lot of people keep their minds opened. having two out of three to say they will not budge, that's a good number.

john: i want to ask you the exact same? started out with, excep -- the exact same question mark started out with. except with ted cruz. >> ted cruz is doing well with groups anyone would wish to have>>, and those are the groups that most reliably show up on caucus night. people who have caucus before, they know the drill, seniors, age 65 and older, and people who are very conservative, and that is a group -- they tend to be the hardest core of the hard-core. he is doing especially well in the fourth district in iowa, and that is a district where turnout is always higher than you would expect. it's a very republican district, but even beyond that, they turned people out. the same is true of evgelicals. you look at their polling numbers, and you think, that is the proportion, but routinely,

more evangelicals show up. with ted cruz having a 20-point advantage among evangelicals, that is something in his corner that is nice to have. mark: we did a deeper dive in this poll on ted cruz because of his prominence in the race. asked a lot of questions about his background, campaign style, policy positions. what did we find that was interesting to you? ann: interesting is the way they cluster. you have people who really like him because he agitates people in congress. he has taken such a strong stance on immigration. those things kind of contrast with the fact that he had christian values and expect he will uphold those and has avoided criticizing trump. you have the naughty and the nice, and they both play well with iowa voters.

john: given the way the caucuses work, the question of second .hoice matters a lot talk about that respect to trump and cruz and what the poll shows. ann: a second choice is a question we turn to. anything can happen. kind of knowing what the backup choices are, so many things in this poll showed ted cruz and donald trump being shadow images of each other. they have many of the same characteristics. it is hard to separate them. there is not parity when it comes to choice -- to second choice. 44% on from supporters would vote for cruz as a second choice. only 25% of cruz supporters would vote for donald trump. mark: we are getting towards the end where there will be some more polling by bloomberg politics and "the des moines

register," but right now if you look at where trump is, where cruz is, is it possible to say -- is it the right thing to say they both have advantages, they both have disadvantages, or does one seem better positioned? ann: the biggest advantage donald trump has is the proportion of people who say they cannot be moved. for ted cruz, he has a higher proportion of people who say they will definitely show up on caucus night. it's kind of like the powerball. you can't win if you don't play. for ted cruz, you can't win -- with donald trump, that's his worry. has the small advantage of having more people who say they will definitely show up. for now, small advantage, cruz. finally, we see that there is a clear race for first. we're going to see cruz versus trump. his third-place a two-man race

between ben carson and marco rubio, or is there anyone else who looks like they have the potential to get in the fight? ann: i think it's between those two. if they are a point of part, it's not going to look like a third-place winner. mark: ok. ann selzer, thank you so much. we will have the democratic numbers tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. up next, trump talk with a "washington post" reporter after this. ♪

john: we are back in pensacola, florida where donald j. trump is

holding another mega-rally. here to talk about trump on the trail, jenna johnson. it's great to have you here. how many of these have you covered? jenna: dozens. i'm trying to think of a number. these have become a signature of trump's campaign and 2016. from the beginning to now, how have the mega rallies changed? jenna: in a lot of ways, they are the same. he's getting big crowd, especially when he's not in iowa, south carolina, new hampshire. in pensacola, he's getting thousands of people showing up, and that has been happening since august. the thing that has changed is people in the audience are having to decide if they want to vote for him or not. they are also learning his message a little bit better. it's not new when he says, we are going to build a wall, to the point where he can say,

who's going to pay for it? the audience on cue response back, mexico. mark: it's like "the rocky horror picture show." everybody has seen the act. a big question you have grappled with. you are the dean of the trump press corps in many ways. ground game -- people say, at events, clipboards, trying to get people to commit. what do you see at these events? overall, does trump have a "ground game"? does he have the ability to turn people out in iowa and new hampshire and in states like this? jenna: that is a big question. what he is different -- doing is different from what most campaigns do. most campaign start with a list of people who usually go to primaries. ands starting from scratch collecting information on people --

john: not a traditional voter file but a trombone or -- trump voter file. my growing suspicion is they are building more of an operation than they are telling people, that they have done things they are not bragging about, because they want to surprise people. do you have that reporting or suspicion? jenna: that's the impression they want us to have, and a big strategyis reggie -- is, if he can get 10,000 people to show up to a rally, if some percentage of them can go to a primary, they think they can win in a lot of states. iowa is different with the caucuses. it's not a daylong primary. people need to be in place by 7:00. i think iowa is really going to be the test. if you can win iowa, that means there has been this underground strategy that we just haven't

seen that is going to whirl into action. if we see problems in iowa, that is going to raise questions about what he is doing in other states. john: there's the ground game and the air war. for a long time we waited, when would trump go on the air? he finally went on the air. he spent some money on it. he's not done any negative spots up until now. what will it take for donald to get on the air with a negative spot hitting one of his opponents? i've given up trying to predict anything with donald, but he has been hesitant to spend money on television ads. last year, he was saying he wanted to spend $2 million a week on ads. we aren't seeing quite that level of spending. it doesn't seem to be something he wants to invest in, especially when he seems to be doing well in the polls. i think it's going to take a major change in the polls. he's going to need to feel

threatened and feel like he needs to get his message out to people more quickly than he is, but keep in mind, he is on television a lot. it might not bin ads, but his face is on a lot of television sets. mark: you've done a good job writing about these events. you pointed out iowa and new hampshire, the events aren't as big because they are in towns. at these mega rallies, what are things that happen at these events -- for people who've never been -- what is the stuff that happens here? what are they like? jenna: they are much louder. it does kind of have the feeling of a circus or concert or something like that. people are waiting out for hours to get in. they are buying the hat and the flags. the big difference between smaller events that trump does

in iowa and new hampshire and big events like this is you can see him feeding off the crowd. he gets so much energy off these crowds, and they are almost egging him on. a lot of times, he will go further in a stance, and it's because he's getting positive feedback from the crowd, and he keep laying it on them. john: let's talk about the current conflict in trump world, which is between him and ted keep laying it on them. cruz. he has been working this birther angle on cruz's canadian past. cruz is now hitting back. before trump went in this direction, he seemed to be struggling for a toehold. how am i going to attack ted cruz? is this the line he has settled on, the canadian thing, or do you think he's going to shift off that and go on to other anti-cruz topics? jenna: for now, it seems to be

working. we were all waiting for him to go there. one of my colleagues overheard ted cruz's wife at an event telling a supporter that they were expecting trump to go after ted cruz on this. we've been waiting for this to happen, and no one was quite sure how it's going to go over. he kind of started off throwing the idea out there, and in the last couple days, we have seen him ramp it up, hit it hard. when i talked to people in the audiences afterwards, they kind of agree with him. this is a question. there are things about ted cruz they didn't know. for as long as this is resonating, he's going to keep with it. when he finds something he seems to resonate, he just keeps hammering. john: like a dog on the bone. mark: trump has tacked some of his opponents "low-energy." he has incredible stamina for a man his age or anybody. as you observe him out there, do you ever see him look or act

tired, or does he always aim at the same level -- scene at the same level? jenna: he does have a lot of energy. i'm younger than he is, and i'm exhausted. it.do see signs of usually, his offense will go for at least -- his events will go for at least an hour, 1:10. if he's been going hard, getting tired, you will see him cut it off at 50 minutes. you will see him go up there and not have as much energy as he normally does. back in december, we were in iowa, and he started losing his voice. he had been doing so many rallies. for a guy who really prides himself on being youthful, having a younger wife, having a nine-year-old son, not sleeping much, working all the time -- mark: it was stunning to me when he lost his voice. it was like, oh my goodness,

he's a candidate. it was striking. jenna: definitely. john: jenna, you are fantastic. we love having you on we are going to have you back on very soon. trumpe come back, supporters in their own words, what they think about ted cruz, after this. ♪

mark: you are looking live at a line of trump supporters and other people in pensacola, florida. they are waiting to see a big donald trump rally that john and i will be covering in pensacola. the war of words between trump and cruz is well-represented here.

in line with trump supporters, we thought we would test the limits on the theory whether trump supporters echo what he says. we have seen that around the country, his supporters repeat back what he said. we asked folks waiting in line about tedald trump cruz. john: >> why do >> you prefer donald trump over ted cruz? >> i think donald trump speaks to the groundswell population of america. he is addressing the fears and concerns we have. >> donald trump is more forward. he speaks up. he is speaking about everything the american people are sitting around the breakfast table saying. >> ted cruz is a smart guy>>. >> i would have been a huge ted cruz supporter. he is the true conservative candidate. >> he doesn't have, i think, the stamina that trump has. >> the problem is, he's a politician.

they are all thought, no action, because they are controlled by their lobbyists and special interests. >> he is a politician. when i hear him talk, and when i see him talk, i just see another mitt romney, someone who is going to play by the rules and be nice and not be straightforward. he still has az, little bit of the politician side. i see donald trump as more open. he's easier to read. >> i do like ted cruz, but i think he's going to be a little wishy-washy on some things, trying to get favors here or favors there. >> he a little wobbly on the citizenship thing. >> i see ted appealing to republicans in general, whereas i see donald trump appealing not only to republicans but independents and democrats. >> now we have donald trump who's an outsider, businessman.

he knows how to get things done. i am past the point of having to have a true conservative. i'm willing to forgo that as long as we have somebody in there who is going to fight for the american people. >> i think he would make a great vp. i would like to see that ticket, a trump-cruz ticket. that would be great. mark: you and i have been with cruz people,ers, and sanders folks. i am so impressed with the level of sophistication of the voters in this cycle. they are following it closely. this was going to be inevitably an election with a high degree of interest in it, and then you have these candidates, because they are outsiders, because they are insurgents, because they are challenging the establishment,

they are drawing a particular kind of voter. those voters are riveted. they are not low-information voters. they may not be sophisticated about a lot of things, but they are observing the mechanics of this at a high level. they are picking up the campaign cues, and they talked the talk of politics in a way that is kind of novel. mark: sunday night at 8:00 on showtime, we are going to debut "the circus," and we are going to look at the outsiders, bernie sanders, ted cruz, and donald trump. their supporters have energy. they are passionate about the country. same with the cruz supporters. same with the sanders supporters. they believe in their candidate as a person, but they also believe in their candidates didates' ideas. john: it's not just that they had passion. they are pissed off. they are ready to rip something

down and put something in that doesn't look like what is there. mark: they cap into a vein. they don't need to convince the people at this event that washington has to change. i will tell you with the other thing is. in the past, reporters try to talk to people in line. for most campaigns, it's hit or miss. i don't want to talk. trump supporters, cruz supporters, sanders supporters, talk, talk, talk. it's rare to talk to a term supporter -- [indiscernible] john: it used to be a lot of times where you had a certain kind of voter who hated the media as much as they hated the less -- the rest of the establishment. there are a lot of people happy to be on camera. mark: they don't like the media, but they want to use it. [laughter] john: correct.

theng up next, we will have campaign songs of 2016. we will be right back with that. ♪

>> i'm trying to think of a good sign for donald trump. >> "the winner"? >> i would have to go with "we are the champions." "don't turn your back on love," janis joplin. >> i like the "star-spangled banner." [laughter] john: those were donald trump supporters hanging out in pensacola, waiting for that rally tonight to start. we have noticed that donald brucehas started using springsteen's anthem "born in the usa" at his rallies.

we started thinking about candidates and their favorite tunes on the campaign trail. >> when my favorite traditions of primary season is when musicians get angry because politicians have used their songs without permission in primary events. all politicians are looking for musical cues to strike emotional cords in their audience, even if the meanings of the songs themselves are the opposite of what a politician might believe. >> no one listens to the lyrics referringn the usa," to ronald reagan's appraising of bruce's song while not paying attention to bruce's message. it is a law of the political universe happening over and over, politicians not realizing the message of songs they are adopting, and it is no different this year. >> ♪ it's the end of the world as we know it ♪ >> donald trump drew the ire of michael's hype when he played -- michael stipe when he played "it's the end of the world and i feel fine."

that is a cease and desist. more interesting are the artists who align themselves with a candidate. trump now begins his rallies with "we are not going to take it" by twisted sister. it's a choice which dee snider gleefully endorsed. >> i do support his spirit,'s attitude, and people have had all they can stand. sandersctably, bernie has a wide spectrum of supporters from wilco "jeff tweedy" to anthony kitas. he received the endorsement of one of the presidents of the united states of america. not that guy. that guy with the "peaches" song.

hillary is popular with musicians. ariana grande a is into her. katy perry sang "firework" at a campaign event in iowa. let's not leave out martin o'malley. the dropkick murphys love him. are you curious who kid rock is supporting? i know you are. the answer, then carson. >> the guy makes a whole lot of sense to me. >> rand paul definitely has the loudest supporter. the lead in europe -- singer of korn. how about mike huckabee's avid support from tony orlando? no word on don. my personal favorite, devotee of carly fiorina, donnie wahlberg. let's not forget the dulcet army.of r. lee then there is one of the most prominent, well-known musicians in the world -- not bono. jesse hughes is the lead singer

of eagles of death metal, the band that on november 13 was playing the show at the bataclan theater when terrorists attacked. the band escaped and sang together with you too. does he have a favorite candidate? he does. he is a donald trump supporter. d snider is old news. jesse, donald, i feel like you two should meet. john:john: that piece has an interesting thing at the end of it. the guy who was in the paris attacks is a trump supporter. kind of incredible. you think there is a piece of music that ever matched up better than "city of lights" by u2 for barack obama? thisll be right back after

with a very, very long piece. ♪

john: we are live 24/7 on bloombergpolitics.com p or check out our campaign tracker -- bloomberg politics.com. check out our campaign tracker, including our new poll coming out tomorrow at six clock a.m. eastern mark: tomorrow, we will have a special preview show. we will be at the republican presidential debate site in charleston, south carolina. we will have our sitdown interview with donald trump. i think it's one of the last or the last interview he does before the debate.

lots to discuss, including the face-off he is having with ted cruz. this is right now a two-person race. john: every republican debate has seemed to be a big debate, and they have all mattered, but there is something about getting closer to voting in iowa and new hampshire, but also because of the sorting that has happened in the field and the way cruz and trump have squared off, every time we had predicted big fisticuffs, it hasn't happened, and i think it's going to happen tomorrow. mark: south carolina debates tend to be rockets. i don't know if there is liquor being served, but there has been in the past. john: usually the crowd is drunk. mark: drunk-ish. there's something about these debates in south carolina -- you saw it with hillary clinton, john edwards, barack obama. john: the newt gingrich one from herbal beach. every cycle seems to have a

drunk south carolina debate where the crowd is going crazy. mark: with a little luck, tomorrow will be the drunk today. john: i will do my part. mark: ted cruz will be more the spotlight then he has been in any of these debates. from all of us here in pensacola, again, tonight, the big trump rally, which we will be covering, and our interview tomorrow morning. our paul, bloomberg politics /"the des moines register," that is at six clock a.m. eastern. for john and me and the whole crew in pensacola, thanks for watching. we will see you tomorrow from south carolina. sayonara. ♪ we live in a pick and choose world.

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x let's take a look of what we are watching this morning. stocks of the slumping again after a rebound proves the short-lived. japan leads the way down.

the shanghai composite is trading beneath its august closing low. oil is in rare territory. below has dipped to back $30. 10 years. in nearly prices are under pressure from u.s. stockpiles. the weather warning. progress camec with a leaping pollution. that will increase the effects of global warming. let us know what you think of the top stories. don't forget to include the #trending business emily: you the bears are back. juliet has the latest on this market meltdown.

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