mark: with all due respect to jeb bush, if your going to show up late, you will need that note from your mother. ♪ mark: tonight, ted cruz plants his flag and jeb bush pulls a trick out of his bag, but first, that old conservative rag. today, there is this, a biweekly glossy magazine, national review, is mad as heck and will not take it anymore. the new editors have lined up 22 conservative writers to convey that message to donald trump.

you may recognize some of the names. glenn back and others. one immediate implication is that the publication has been cut off from participating in the republican debate next month. what does donald trump think about this? last night after a rally in las vegas, he was predictably unimpressed. >> the answer is that it is a dying paper. the circulation is way down. not many people read it anymore. people don't even think about the national review. no, it's a dying paper. it is pretty much a dead paper. mark: are you more or less impressed with what the national review has done than donald trump is? john: i think they are totally misunderstanding the nature of donald trump's appeal.

this is an in-kind campaign contribution to donald trump. anything establishment against trump is good for trump. mark: some people we know and respect think ideas will stop trump. we said you will not stop trump by an interest group, a magazine, independent expenditure, only another candidate can stop donald trump. nothing they row, as you said, is going to hurt him, it will only help him. john: many of their arguments are powerful arguments, well written, well argued -- i'm just saying that a bunch of guys in washington with elbow patches and tweed coats saying donald trump is bad for the party will put no brakes on donald trump. if anything, it will be an accelerator for him. mark: reports are that you will get another round of speculation.

can someone put together an independent expenditure to stop them? no. the amounts of money would take to break for now, the question, -- no one is going to stop donald trump except another candidate, if anybody. john: somebody has to go toe to toe with him. to me, that is one of the big sorting factors in terms of who is plausible? a lot of these candidates are not plausible. some of those guys in the establishment lane will never be big enough to take on trump. mark: this is second time the conservative publication has been booted out because they crossed trump. it does raise questions about participation in these debates. john: donald trump can fight any fights at once in addition to feuding. the national review, still focused on ted cruz. today, the campaign released an advertisement that will run, the first negative ad that donald

trump has released in his campaign. the topic, ted cruz on immigration. >> i am donald trump and approve this message. ♪ >> it sounded like you wanted the bill to pass? >> of course i wanted the bill to pass, my amendment to pass, it takes citizenship of the table, but it doesn't mean that i supported the other aspects of the bill. i want immigration reform to pass. allows those illegally to come in out of the shadows. >> that amendment would allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the u.s. and retain legal status. how do you square the circle? >> actually, it would help. >> people want to take back their country in a humane way, but you have to have a country. people are pouring in, pouring in, and doing tremendous damage if you look at the crime,

economy. to have a country, we have to have borders. we don't have borders right now. john: naturally, inevitably, on good morning america, ted cruz had something to say about it. >> i stood with joe sessions and steve king and led the opposition that defeated amnesty. donald trump was publicly supporting amnesty. john: we will talk about ted cruz versus donald trump as we have for the past couple of days, as we will into the future. who is winning the battle? mark: donald trump is on immigration. making a claim about ted cruz which i think is at least questionable. ted cruz is going after donald trump on imminent domain. this is not an issue that has been said. they believe conservatives care about it in some quarters, and it is relatively undiscussed in the debate.

i don't think ted cruz can argue that he is more on message than donald trump is. the expectations game is setting up well for ted cruz in iowa, but i think trump is winning in others. john: donald trump has promised he would spend money on television. he is doing that. this is his first negative ad with significant dollars behind it. he is going after ted cruz and discombobulating him. he is going straight for the jugular in iowa on this issue. trump is on offense and ted cruz is on defense. offense is winning the battle. mark: ted cruz in iowa, that is his state. there is no other state where he is that close to trump. this is an ad in iowa on an issue where it trump is showing strength.

trump is showing strength, and when he shows strength, he does well. i will give ted cruz credit. ted cruz is not flailing, not showing weakness or discombobulation in the face of donald trump. he is holding up, but losing right now. equally as interesting is clinton versus sanders. team hillary is still trying to put the brakes on the bernie momentum. not clear if it is working quite yet. a new poll in new hampshire shows sanders with a healthy 50% to 41% lead. what could close that gap? maybe both clintons going after sanders. bill clinton's we after bernie sanders last night, talking about how mad sanders is compared to hillary clinton. today, the candidate herself suggested a sanders' presidency would not build effectively on an obama presidency, as she says she would do.

john, where are we on how the clintons are doing? john: that is a foreign policy ad out today, the notion she could do all aspects of the job and he does not like to talk about foreign policy. there is an argument there. the strongest card is not about bernie sanders being a socialist, but that he is not really a democrat. that's what this argument about obama is about, too. they are trying to reinforce the notion that this guy is really not for the party. i think there is something there. mark: the clintons themselves want to stop his momentum. there is a theory that says probably bernie sanders will do really well in iowa and new hampshire, but it is a different narrative coming out of new hampshire if he has won the vote after throwing the kitchen sink at him. some people say, close positive, talk about your record, talk about the economy, talk about being the first female

president, and if you lose them, you can go to south carolina in an optimistic way rather than compounding the losses with negativity. john: they have not in this race -- once they start to go negative, they have not been able to pull themselves back from that. in 2008, they spiraled out of control in negativity. they went there and could not pull it back. i will be interested to see if in the closing week whether they can get that place to where they want to get to. will she say i can take my shots and now i will be positive? i don't know if they have that type of discipline. mark: you can understand the frustration of the clintons. the press is not holding them accountable. they are treating it like simon and garfunkel redux, all sweetness and light. john: first, marco rubio getting

pinched and jeb bush's bag of tricks, when we come back. ♪

♪ john: yesterday we mentioned that the circular firing squad of the republican establishment candidates has largely avoided john kasich. after our interview yesterday, he is now quarreling with the jeb bush. there is another clash involving marco rubio, who has tangled with jeb bush and chris christie to be the establishment candidate. the problem is he is also squaring off with ted cruz, for

reasons that are hard to explain. so, mark, i ask you does this , make sense to you? mark: there was a long time where they were fighting, and then it died down. the rubio campaign says we are the guy to beat. there is only so much band width a guy has to fight. i don't think on balance that it is good. if marco can emerge third in iowa and he can do well in new hampshire, he is getting some licks in on ted cruz. it might be good to get that dynamic going. john: i have understood all along why ted cruz wants to damage marco rubio. he will have to get through marco rubio if he becomes the establishment candidate. i have never understood why rubio thinks it is worth his time right now. if you talk to the other

establishment candidates and their campaign, they sit there every day and say, 'i don't understand why marco rubio is doing so well.' mark: i do understand that marco rubio on paper can compete with votes for ted cruz. john: not right now. in some platonic ideal scenario, but nobody thinks about marco rubio anymore in terms of evangelical or tea party credentials. mark: at some point ben carson's support could collapse, and i think marco rubio potentially there to get some of it. it is vital from the part of the marco rubio campaign to finish as the top establishment candidate in both iowa and new hampshire. john: you think some chunk of carson support guarantees a strong third-place? mark: jeb bush needs an assist, so he's doing what generations

have done before him, help me, mom, literally. first lady barbara bush, the most popular member of that clan, is sending out letters in support of jeb bush in iowa and new hampshire and south carolina. today, the bush campaign put out this web video with a special message from mom. ♪ >> jeb has been a good father, wonderful son, hard worker, and when push comes to shove, people will realize that jeb bush has real solutions rather than talking about how popular they are, how great they are. he is doing it because he's sees a huge need, and is not being filled by anybody. of all the people running, he seems to be the one who can solve the problems. i think he will be a great president. mark: an unmistakable shot at donald trump there. yesterday, jeb bush on a conference call with a member of

a previous bush administration who says she would not be surprised if bush 43 was out on the trail in south carolina soon. the bush name has been somewhat of an albatross, but is it possible that the bush brand could help jeb bush close strong? john: this is bringing back warm memories of barbara bush as first lady, because everybody looked at her as a matronly figure, and we know she was mean and tough as anyone. she went negative on donald trump without any fear. i would like to see the campaign unleashed her on donald trump. it can't hurt. at this point, it doesn't hurt jeb bush. mark: in spite of the establishment victory, the bush brand has some loyalty. if the establishment panics and thinks we can't have donald trump or ted cruz, it might be chamber of commerce types who are looking for a safe place to

go. the bush plan and the backing of barbara bush and 43 may help them close strong. john: at this point, and negatives of the bush name are firmly baked into the cake, right? if people are not going to vote because they don't like that he is a bush, those people are not voting for bush ever. those still available to him, that might not be a bad thing. mark: i want to see 43 all in taking down donald trump. john: 43 and his mom. coming up, a prisoner's dilemma for the establishment candidates. we will talk to about that and show you some video after this. ♪

♪ mark: in game theory, it is called the prisoner's dilemma, in which individuals are torn between the greater good and trying to save themselves individually. that is the exact situation the four establishment presidential candidates find themselves in, especially in new hampshire before the primary. this sunday, on showtime, at 8:00 the second episode of our p.m., weekly series, "the circus," a documentary look at the presidential campaign that we produce with mark mckinnon and in conjunction with bloomberg politics. this esode is called "the prisoner's dilemma". the winners may turn out to be donald trump and ted cruz. here is a sneak peak. ♪

>> jeb bush is spending the weekend new hampshire, a sure sign of how important this state is to his political future. >> what is your name? >> a child will always get my attention first. little kids who come to see a candidate for president should get to the front of the line. >> you have now committed. >> so this is their little gift for coming. i think it symbolizes that the tortoise wins in the end, slow and steady. >> is that the approach? >> it sure is. >> ladies and gentlemen, i give you the next president of the united states, senator marco rubio. >> our next president should be someone frustrated by the direction of our country. i am. and i am passionate about many of the issues we face in america, because i faced them in my own life. i am the only republican who

talks about student loan debt consistently, not because i read about it in a book. i had over $100,000 in student loan debt. when i talk about people living paycheck to paycheck, it's not a special on pbs. i believe it because i have lived through it. >> thank you guys for coming. >> we just saw marco rubio in a classic town hall forum. he is a good communicator, a new generation message. >> how are you? >> are you ready? ♪ >> i would like to introduce now my husband, john kasich. [applause] >> i went to my high school reunion when i was a congressman and a guy walked up to me and said, 'i understand you are a congressman.'

i was like, 'oh, yeah.' he said, 'i voted for you to be most likely to succeed. what happened?' [laughter] >> i have been very close to moose on a number of occasions. i'm talking about city slickers. when you see the moose, the head and antlers are so big that when you look at it you wonder how it keeps its head up. am i right? >> people think that everybody here is angry. we have candidates who walk into meetings and it is all about the negative and the dark. i called and them prince of darkness. i am the prince of the light. if you want to divide a country, yell and scream at the other side, you should not vote for me. if you all come out against me, then i'm pretty well done.

>> the honorable chris christie. [applause] >> thank you. how fabulous it is to be in a house dominated by republicans. when i get to the white house, i know how the decisions will come into this office, fast and furious. we need to elect someone president of the united states who has done this before. thank you all for coming tonight. i appreciate it very much. what you're going to get as a direct answer for me. you may like it, may not like it, but you will get the answer. let's get to work. >> chris christie has had his moments, getting traction, doing well in town hall meetings. >> that was an academy award double performance, very good. >> at the same time, no sign he is gaining traction in terms of the poll numbers.

>> i will be ready for battle tomorrow. mark: that is a taste of "circus". we are still cutting the episode. a lot more on sunday night. all four of these guys are not giving up. no one is thinking maybe i will throw my support to someone else. all four of them do make a case and have a credible case to say that i am the guy who after the new hampshire primary the establishment will say i am your man. john: if you don't do well and iowa and new hampshire, i'm not saying you should drop out now. they cannot counter that. they won't admit the possibility that that might be where they want to end up. they somehow profoundly believe that somehow in the next couple of weeks with all that undecided vote in new hampshire that it will all come together for them at the end. mark: you go to their offense,

they are decent sized grabs an , incredible level of interest and questions. they are not trump size or with the intensity of ted cruz, and not all four of them can go into the final stretch after iowa say i will surge at the end. i think all four of them will say they are performing well. you don't see any of them dropping off in their game. it makes it exciting, but for the establishment, four is too many. john: way too many. they are hearing from people that they are thinking about the others in that cohort, so they know directly who their competitors are, that's why it's getting so vicious among them. this is not abstract. they are competing for the same set of votes with those guys. mark: they will see in this episode the four contrasting styles, all of them their own unique way.

the zen of john kasich, the intensity of chris christie, that is something. that will be 8:00 p.m. on showtime. on sunday. it is called "the circus." check it out. you can watch the first episode on demand right now. coming up, joe bennison after this. ♪

♪ >> joining us is the man who tells hillary clinton when she is up she is down.

given the recent news out of iowa and new hampshire, it would make sense that he may want to leave brooklyn headquarters a little bit. last night we dealt with the most recent poll. your candidate backed by eight points. i know you have some points of disputation. tell us why that poll is not to be believed. >> the poll is an outlier. it is a sample of 280 people in a caucus where their methodology would forecast of 53,000 people voting for participating. >> that would be more than participated in barack obama's. >> almost 50% more. more importantly, going to the calculations last night for them , to arrive at the number they did they had a sample that was 53% male. 47% female. last caucus was 53% female. that is a swing of nine points

among women that is going to affect your outcome. my point on a lot of these polls is these are tricky states. cnn had it wrong in 2008. they had hillary clinton beating barack obama and then obama the hillary clinton by nine points. that's 11 point off. >> where do you think the rates in iowa is? to 2008, ao back high number of voters make up their mind in the last week. iowa last time was 27%. i think we have the advantage in iowa. i think we're building momentum

going toward the end. i think he has the advantage in new england and new hampshire where new englanders have competed like favorite sons. >> it is true to say they are both close enough that either one could win either race? either secretary clinton or sanders could win? given the volatility that happens in the last weeks of these two states. >> i absolutely think we could see it. >> secretary clinton, if she lost them both as a matter of dynamic analysis, what would happen to the race? >> i think -- >> i think one column was written out of the cook report which was a respected analytical media outlet. it looked at the whole delegate math and said you can look at the iowa and new hampshire. it was a strong case for why

secretary clinton would be strong no matter what had happened. i think the dynamic in these first two states in their interaction is probably greater than any other race. when we come out of these two states we come out of this short time horizon so you don't have six months to compete and communicate. in 2008 when i was going at senator obama -- when i was working for senator obama, we had a road map of where we could win and where we thought we had a chance and could play. you don't have the same amount of time to do all the things you can do in iowa and new hampshire. >> in 2008 hillary clinton, ready from day one.

35 years of experience. all that stuff, that is what she ran on. barack obama said we could slice her to ribbons on this. this is a change election, and you guys it, effectively. she is running again as the experience. she can do all facets of the job. why is it smart to run on this basis this time? >> it wasn't dumb. every election has a different dynamic. we had a republican president for eight years, the economy was already sinking in a way that middle-class and working class people weren't feeling. barack obama ran about fixing the broken politics in washington. he had a track record of working

with republicans and he leveraged that. here we are in the last year of barack obama presidency and see. democratic primary voters know we have flown our way back from what was a devastating crisis in 2008. they know we are not done yet. they want a candidate and a president to get things done that is going to make a difference. which one of these people can get things done that will improve my life? john: this is not a democratic electric that is still creating change, hope? >> i think they have ground they want to keep making up. i think they want to get across the finish line to get back to the security they had that cost a lot of of people to the economy.

>> what is it about bernie sanders that causes a lot of democrats to like him? >> he is an energetic speaker. he is very passionate about the issues he cares about. i think all voters feel there is work that has to be done to un-stack the deck. hillary clinton started out to change the odds against people who had the odds stacked against them. in the last five days we have seen him really shift positions, some of which he has held for a long time, some of which he has to walk back, including groups like planned parenthood and the human rights campaign is part of the establishment, people who have been on the front line the leadership had been on the front lines.

people have liked to them for his full throated enthusiasm on this whole issue. now it is not holding up as well. when you have a candidate who changes his health per can -- health care plan and his position on guns in the human rights campaign, you have to hold up under the stress of these things. you want a president who has the tenacity and doggedness to make their lives better. we are in a very fluid time. in the shape of the closing argument. i think hillary clinton is making that argument strongly and soundly every day. >> the dynamic is fluid, and she is being very strong. very much the person that she is. she is a very tough customer, she doesn't back down easily. she is willing to take on

powerful forces all over the world and all over the country. >> we are going to ask the question why clinton's opponent and chief strategist -- thank you. when we come back the fabulous , julianne moore. ♪

♪ >> some would say one of them does a pretty decent imitation of sarah palin. julianne moore is involved in every town involved with gun safety.

an organization funded in part by our boss, michael bloomberg. joining julienne with us is our senior policy advocate for the group and survivor of the 2007 virginia tech shooting. thank you both for joining us. what motivated you to get involved with this in such a public and visible way? julienne: i spent the day tried to keep the news away from my daughter. she came home and look at her phone and summary had posted something on instagram. i thought as a citizen, as someone who has a bit of voice culturally, i try to lend my voice to this. >> talk about your strategy. you are going about this in a different way. >> i joined after the ground check compromise, that sailed by five votes. we have the majority of senators vote.

now we have to go on the ground level, build the ground game and do this on a local level to get another shot in d.c. and congress. we built grassroots networks and have over 3.5 million supporters around the country. being able to work with celebrities and the creative counsel, we have an every town survivor network from all walks of life who can speak truth to this and say this is real. it really is a way to take this issue locally. >> youth face resistance from some organized groups and some other citizens. what would you say to people who disagree to people who disagree with the notion that there needs to be more laws in the books?

julianne: it does not have to be a decisive issue, a partisan issue, this is really about a safety. it is not about control, not about elimination, it is about how can we make things safer for everyone? and i know plenty of responsible gun owners who feel the same way, who feel there should be background checks early -- background checks everywhere. how do we keep hands out of -- had we keep guns out of the hands of stalkers and terrorists? these are not divisive issues. >> if you talk about this issue in that way, should we do a background check if somebody buys a gun? we have 97% in agreement. even nra members and get members themselves. these are basic things we should do. this is not a divisive issue once you break it down to the individual policies. >> you are ahead of the creative counsel.

there is a conservative argument for people who say we have to figure out mental health. we also have to deal with the culture industry. what do you say to those who say hollywood is a huge problem in the culture of guns and the culture of america? >> there is a big difference between fantasy and reality. it is not possible to be killed -- if it is in a movie it is not really happening. however, in our country, it is possible to be killed by a gun while you are sitting in the theater while watching a movie. >> did you think there is not anything to the notion that there are kids sitting in front of video games, shooting games all day long from the time they are six or seven years old, that that doesn't change the way they make about violence? >> i think there is a responsibility culturally to

represent things responsibly. i do not think that is the root of the problem, however. i do think it is access. that's really what it is. >> the entire world place call of duty like we do, we have an astronomically higher rate of gun deaths and injuries. part of that is the easy accessibility that we allow to firearms. >> we have seen a bunch of prominent incidents with the past few months, what will have to happen for you to have more success at the state and federal level? >> it is a question i have heard for years. every single incident, whether it makes the headlines or doesn't, more americans realize something has to be done. as a result we have grown to millions of supporters.

we have statehouses across the country. oregon became the 18 states require background checks on themselves earlier this year. hopefully the state of nevada and maine have this on the ballot in the fall and will become the 19th and 20th. you can see republicans and democrats coming together. hopefully we can help change the members of congress who continue to stand in the way. >> people showing up and more and more of us adding our voices to it, that changes the dynamics significantly. >> academy awards, second year in a row. all white nominees. >> there has been a huge announcement that is astonishing, they are going to double the number of female members and minority members and

they have changed the voting rules. >> and you think that is important, right? the academy is not diverse enough, right? >> it is wonderful she has stepped up to the plate and changed so quickly. >> sarah palin is back in the news. in the race already. [laughter] >> exactly, the next volume. >> the trumpet endorsement cameo. >> thank you for joining us. when we come back, the nfl and the presidential candidates like you have never seen them before. ♪

♪ john: politics is a lot like football. every now and then somebody shanks the point after. we asked our master and commander of all things cultural to match up the four remaining teams in the nfl playoffs with the presidential candidate. take it away. >> the gold anniversary, the biggest game ever. super bowl 50. at a time when the nfl is under more scrutiny than any other time ever. domestic violence among its players, performance enhancing drugs, nefarious deals to move franchises, and the most

important issue of all, lightly deflated footballs. while we americans may not want our kids to play football we , certainly want someone's kids too. ratings are up this year. of the top 10 shows watched in 2015, more than half of them were individual nfl games. super bowl 50 falls between the iowa caucuses and the new hampshire primary. who should you be cheering for? the arizona cardinal -- most closely resemble in a japanese fighting fish. the 2016 they must resemble, ted cruz. under estimated and frankly not particularly beloved by his rival. cardinals have put together a

ground operation that would be the envy of the game, stealthily preparing for this opportunity for years. the carolina panthers. their coach was a member of the super bowl shuffle there. and now stands as the most successful latino coach in nfl history. with a fan base including rick flair, they have the best and most brash young quarterback in the nfl in cam newton, who is trying to finish off the 15 and one season. let those old guys like brady and manning battle their path. enter the denver broncos. gary kubiak has been a part of six super bowls. three as a player and three as an existent coach. celebrity fans? the south park guys, keith hudson, and tim greer.

john elway is a fierce republican who campaigned for mitt romney and was forced to run for office themselves in the state of colorado. -- facing one shot of goals, and an old tormentor in tom brady. i'm thinking hillary clinton here. the team has been questioned, scrutinized, and battered for decades. now is the chance to make all of that go away. finally, the new england patriots. coach belichick. miss congeniality 10 years running. tom brady is a four-time super bowl champion, a fashion model, and someone donald trump considers a close friend. a year after deflategate, the patriots are the heavy favorites

again. defying all the haters. the current presidential candidate patriots most resemble, donald trump. obviously. >> our thanks to the one and only william f. leach. we will be back with the winners of this entire week after this. ♪

♪ john: the week is over, who won it? mark: he must if he has a chance to beat her. john: we always structure the segment for you to go first, you always say something right.

the american people when is this week. bernie sanders's on a roll. the guy is on a roll. that is something miller would have thought not too long ago. we have polls in both iowa and new hampshire that have bernie ahead by the margin of error. next week we will be in des moines iowa all week long for the rest of the caucuses beat we always live on bloomberg politics.com. mark: until next week, we will see you in des moines, sayonara. ♪

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