scarlett: u.s. stocks halted a two-day rally. you can blame the crude selloff. >> the question is what you missed. has the u.s. bull market finally run its course? price wins in the u.s. bond market. his liquidity prices to blame? francine: and wide-out is shorting -- alix: and why dow is shorting the apple stock. the bottom fell out in the final hour of trading as oil extended losses, another big, massive drop . >> at one point, earlier in the day, markets had rallied. we thought we would be looking at some strength, but it was in the last hour that the wheels came off.

the many trades with features. in the terminal, you can see the correlation today. oil kind of started to roll over here. steeper decline in oil, and right around 2:00, 3:00, the bottom fell out altogether. there was not any catalyst. blame friday and thursday on the short market. >> we also saw weakness on the financials today. a lot of the major banks are down 3% or more today. once again, weakness at the bank. alix: and this is pretty much across the board. case, the climb is low, the whitest retreat since january 13-- widest retreat since january 13. to find ait was hard

catalyst for this, what are you looking at oil or stocks. when i was looking at was caterpillar, which was 21 points from the dow. basically, goldman's 2007 earnings are 2.7 below the streak. were goingse miner we knew those--- miners were going to get hurt, but this is incredible. speaking of pain, this is a chart that stood out to me. talk about negativity, when it comes to oil. this is open interest. this basically gives you the right to sell oil at $25. the spike in volume. traders are getting more bearish. that $25 level sticks out.

it is around number that people are freaked out about. did they talk about how oil moves and five dollar, $10 increments? francine: jeff kurt-- sees it thatrry way. >> people may see that as a magnet, where it is heading down there. speaking of oil and the ramification that week oil is having on the economy, i want to dive into the terminal. plunging to -34.6. subzero, actually horrible data for manufacturers. obviously, it is associated with the oil crash. i wanted to bring up and associated chart.

give me a second to bring this up. these are texas manufacturing payrolls versus u.s. manufacturing payrolls. texas manufacturing payrolls were once associated with the oil industry more. to keep things optimistic, maybe this collapse that we have seen, the manufacturing downturn, is more of an oil downturn than anything else. if oil were to stabilize, maybe manufacturing would. here's another chart on oil. different way of looking at the pressure that oil is putting on the rest of the market. this tracks to beauty i cruise. wti crews and how many shares have been created. it climbs to a record.

this is not investors betting on prices rising, for instance. these are created to satisfy the demand of short-sellers. when he short a security, you are selling it later at a lower price. they need to be created to be sold. that is what is happening. options are being disrupted. joe: it is all about oil. alix: the founder and president of eagle bay takes a technical look at the markets. it is great to have you here. scarlett: you say that the s&p 500 is in worse shape than many people think. so far, it is down 8%. are more bearish signals for equities ahead? c.: thanks for having me on again. i was on the show in december, and it was really bearish.

i was saying to buy treasury bonds, for multiple reasons. you get sympathy buying as money comes out of other assets. but as interest rates go lower, rise higher. but, as much as downside targets were achieved, in the last week, things are worse, structurally. can get some countertrend balances inequities, not just a massively, but globally. structurally, things are worse. every time we get selloffs, we asked, is his capitulation -- capitulation?"s what is the sign that this is a real bottom? this is an impossible question to answer. we want to see a combination,

perhaps of new leadership from sector rotation, some of the mebody leading as opposed to new lows. nameso want to see fewer hit 52-week lows. we see the opposite, more 52-week lows than in august. this is more than just a capitulation or a sentiment game. this is actually improvement underneath the surface. we are not seeing that, and things are getting worse. producer justet sent us a headline that says 25 stocks are hitting to a close-- 52-week lows. alix: can you talk about the technical destruction being done to these guys? joej.c.: this is a group where u want to see leadership. a relative basis, we have a downtrend for three years --

been in a downtrend for three years. if you think we are in a bull market, you want to see stocks make new highs. we are seeing the opposite. we are seeing multiyear lows on a closing basis on both in absolute and relative basis. this is not only the second , inest group in the s&p 500 terms of waiting behind technology, but in bull markets, you need to see leadership. we are seeing them drag down the market. scarlett: speaking of interest-rate sensitive groups, you're looking at utilities. we are seeing bearish signals there. there's a smile at the bottom, if you look at the lows and how they are progressing. when you hit the low point, late last year, since then, we have made higher lows. what we have seen in

utilities is the opposite of financials. you want to be rotating out of that defensive, high given and cash dividend-- high dividend financials. for multiple reasons, this is defensive and qualities. collapse,terest rates fixed-income investors are not getting this in the bond market. a shift toating higher dividend stocks and why utilitiesn are doing well. this is more evidence that stocks are in a downtrend, and we are heading lower. joe: apple earnings come out tomorrow. every time you come on the show, your negative about apple. apple.are negative about j.c.: i said we were heading down to the low 90's. we got there last week.

be foolish, technically speaking, i would much rather be selling into strength. i'm not going to tell you it is going to 108, but i think that would be a great shorting opportunity, again, for apple. scarlett: apple results come out tomorrow. we will cover all of that on what did you miss. more risk on u.s. markets, that is next. ♪

alix: let's go right to mark crumpton. mark: suicide bombers attacked a town in cameroon near the region of the border with nigeria.

35 people were killed, 65 related. two others moved himself in the town of bull hill. boko haram has been blamed for the attack. unusual weather in eastern asia has been blamed for 65 deaths. the frigid temperatures have a stock temper station -- stopped transportation. temperatures in taiwan's capital of taipei plunged to a 16 year fahrenheit inees f an area where most people don't have central heating. temperatures normally hover around 60 degrees. it will take days for the east coast get back to normal after a storm dropped more than two feet of snow. airports are slowly reopening. over a four-day. days,, over four thousands of flights were canceled.

in an interview with politico, the president said "hillary clinton's strength can sometimes be her weaknesses." that bernie sanders has the luxury of being, "a complete longshot." will bel due respect" live in iowa. our coverage right here at 5:00 p.m., new york time. joe: global news, 24 hours a day from the bloomberg first solar desk. scarlett: u.s. stocks will fall even further than you think. doug ramsey picks his top stocks of 2015. he says the s&p 500 has another 10% to drop. he joins us now from minneapolis. he is from louisville capital management, where he received

over $2.8 billion. oversees over $2.8 billion. doug: i look at valuations on the basis of sales. price tondustrials sales ratio is still about 1.6 or so, even after the carnage of the last couple of weeks. it is still in the top 10% of the entire history, going back to the mid-1950's. what that says is that we are adjusting to the fact that profit margins are still incredible behind this country. adjusting for that fact, the simplest way to do that is to look at the top line, to look at sales. even though it has been painful here in the last eight months, especially outside the s&p 500, valuations are the second-highest you have ever seen. the other thing he noticed

is that low volatility means in august.got hit there has been a pretty steady disruption. what does that say to you about the cyclical bear market? doug: it is interesting. people focus on the "fanta" stocks. what a sales, not a lot of lot of sales, but not a lot of earnings. but economically defensive stocks, usual subjects like coke or mcdonald's or kellogg's or campbells, these have all benefited tremendously in the last four or five months. it has been remarkable since that october, excuse me, august 25 low. there's a lot of fear, and the

damage under the surface, remember, the s&p 500 is stronger than every thing else. out these economically defensive stocks, and the damage within this index is very severe. that's the good news. the bear market may be more advanced than most people appreciate. i want to talk about what i think is probably considered to be the most controversial charts out there. the connection between the stock market and the size of the fed balance sheet. "look, the market rally corresponds to the balance sheets and since the bottom of the 2008-2009 crisis." other people say, "this is a coincidence that it happened to fit like that." where do you stand on that question, and if it is connected, does the fact that the balance sheet is no longer extending mean that stock gains

have kept for a long time? no one can be proven or disproven on this. it is a theory. thatgued throughout 2014 things were tightening, and what would bypass that claim is simply the ensuing market action. i'm not just talking stocks. commodity markets. commodities came in to 2015 after a weak year and dropped another third. they are off to a rough start in 2015. market stocks and small caps, really, the broad list outside the dow and s&p 500 , have been hit pretty hard ince tapering out underway january 2014.

i am definitely in the camp that there is a correlation there, that it is more than just a spurious correlation overlaying these items. what does a 10% decline look like? is it volatility, a short line, straight line down? what do you see? doug: if we drop 10% from where we close today, we get down to roughly 1705, 20% target. just so happens that that is actually a downside fundamental target for us. where the s&p 500, on the basis of six different valuation measures, drops down to long-term average valuations that we have seen since the inception of the s&p 500 in 1957. we would cover some hedges. we are very well hedged on the capital portfolios. let's be clear, the downside could certainly extend well beyond that.

hedges on thesome basis that you have taken the second-most expensive or market in history, an average valuations. whether we turn bullish on the turn -- will depend on other economic factors at that point. it could be a rapid descent, frankly, over the next few weeks. thatett: your thesis is the fed has gone so far beyond conventional policies, that tightening actually began a much further, a lot earlier, tapering was tightening. tapering tightened since january 2014 in the market? doug: it has been conventional, in the sense that the u.s. large caps have absorbed it the best. thisn, the s&p 500, and may go down as an incredible stat when this is all over, was

2.5% from an all-time high just a month ago. now, here we are. we're looking at a bear market, straight in the face. so, that is my concern. this is the usual suspects that have held up well, whereas junk bonds, and we have not gone to junk bonds, but they popped before anything else. they topped out in the summer of 2014 along with oil prices. transportation stocks, utility things thatof these have a pretty good record of topping out well in advance of the dow and s&p did so. easing was very unconventional, with the use of qe, we have had a pretty conventional response, in terms of market action. the big defensive stocks will be the last fall.

that will be a sign that we are getting late in the decline, i believe. scarlett: thank you for your perspective, doug ramsey. grim predictions there. how lois copper going to go -- low will copper go? the impact of oversupply. ♪

♪ scarlett: what did you miss? financial conditions have been tightening. come inside the bloomberg terminal here, let us see how this all plays out.

as we have mentioned, financial conditions are tightening this year. the recent seizure and financial markets has been much more muted, then say, august. but that was to reiterate that the risks of the outlook are balanced. it is interesting, just if you look at where the decisions were in september and december, in terms of financial conditions and how they contrast with where we are right now. joe: everybody thinks that the market volatility is going to impact the fed, in some way, even if the fed claims that it looks through it. see the pricing expectations for the fed fund has massively collapsed this year. it will be interesting to say, to see in the statement, that is not a press conference, how pathetic knowledge is what is happening in the market. think --ave some something nerdy and commodity oriented is share with you.

there are a lot of indicators you can look at. this is copper. you are at the treatment and refining charge. basically, you mind the rock, theship it to china,-- mine rock, you ship it to china, and there is a toll. is $100 per ton, but mccourty puts the number lower, at $85 per ton. that means the minor has more pricing power. there is either more supply or less demand. would be the sign that we are at some sort of bottom, directltheoretically? alix: he radically. -- theoretically. joe: tomorrow is the big day for apple, when the earnings come out. this is where the key things coming, year-over-year change in iphone shipment, iphone volume.

it has decelerated all year. analysts are looking for tiny growth, year-over-year growth. there is a lot of anxiety that in q1, this will be q4's earning. that it could actually go negative in q1. negativeever seen volume growth in this product. scarlet: there are red flags. we have heard from suppliers that orders are down. handset sales are as well. joe: it is the end of an era. alix: it is a matter of how fast the slowdown will be. that seems to be the huge? over apple in tomorrow's-- the huge question mark hanging over apple's earnings. scarlet: coming up, a strategist at things the u.s. economy is not as bad as you think. coming up next. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. let's get to mark crumpton. mark: the u.s. supreme court says people serving life terms for murders they committed as teenagers must have a chance to seek freedom. the 6-3 ruling extends stanza 2012 position that struck down automatically comes with no chance for parole for teenage killers. even those convicted long ago must be considered for parole or given a new sentence it a new video released by the islamic whoe shows the extremists carried out the paris index committing other atrocities. all nine militants seen in the video died in the attacks or in

the aftermath. several were seen on the video shooting or beheading captives. now that sanctions have been lifted, iran is emerging from international isolation. president are som -- president hassan rouhani arrived in rome, the first up on a european tour. contractscted to sign with a number of companies. trio fledthink that 15 hours before their absence was even noticed on friday night. the prisoners cut steel bars and made reps with ben sheets to break out. it is not yet clear whether the men, one of whom is an accused murderer, help help from the inside with their escape. global news 24 hours a day. from the "first word" desk, i'm mark crumpton. scarlet: thank you so much, mark. it was pretty much a straight line down from the 3:00 p.m.

hour on before we consolidated near our lows of the day. the dow jones industrial average losing 208 points for another triple digit loss for the industrials. oil prices extended their losses yet again. alix: down almost to 7%. really kind of unbelievable. no real catalyst there. suitably positioned on the downside. joe: also getting hit hard today, the financials closing at the lowest level since february 2014. our earlier guests talking about how if this were more of a bull market, it would expect to see the financials doing well. this was one unobtrusive looking -- and oppressive working sector. alix: caterpillar 21 points, lowest levels since june 2010. we knew these suppliers to mining companies were not going to do well but goldman cut its rating to sell and lowered estimates. joe: the fact that they continue to disappoint after being hit so

much as per the remarkable at this point. alix: "what'd you miss?" the u.s. economy and volatility we have seen may not be as bad as we think it joining us is wrote aenglander, who recent report explaining just that. you said it is fear among the markets may be an overreaction. tell us why. steven: first, we have been here before, because this sounds like last year. when you are seeing is a drop in oil prices, which is very specific to the oil market. we know they are contributing to a slight demand imbalance. the drop in oil prices is seeping into every asset price, whether it is oil-related or not . we know the issues with china and for all we have been buying china for the last decade or 15 years, we also know that the specific mistakes they've made, demographic and policy issues they are confronting, it is

still back over so dramatically into asset markets seems overdone. in particular one of the things i've been looking at is the impact on inflation expectations of oil prices. we had that short, if you made a prediction five years from now. steven: we know that oil is super volatile as a commodity. and yet what we see is inflation expeditions sort of five years from now for a generation being affected by today's drop in oil prices. to me that seems more like a reflexive panic rather than a well-thought-out analysis of how markets are likely to play out. joe: so when you look at the overall economy, everything associated with oil is pretty weak. you look internationally at china, emerging markets quite weekend over knows when they will bounce back. -- nobody knows when they will

bounce back as the one basket of strength is to be the u.s. household sector. there is not a lot of household -- not a lot of household leverage. is the u.s. consumer strong enough to withstand all of these things going on? steven: i think they are strong enough and insulated enough to be able to deal with the spillover from what we are seeing a broad. in particular, our good news is the stuff we have been worried about all this time. china has problems because it makes things. things are increasingly easy to make and they are getting cheaper. commodities are getting cheaper. our ip-intensive products and service-intensive products. those are more expensive. i think that the u.s. economy will be able to deal with this

spillover and continue on its way -- it is not a super strong economy. potential growth may be around but we also seem to be able to deal with it. these issues, 2, 3 times a year, and from the distance of six months, when we look at the economic data, it looks pretty smooth. scarlet: i like what you described earlier, reflexive and verses. outcome logical conclusion. there is a correlation between oil prices and stocks. last year it was in inverse correlation. is this positive correlation well-thought-out or reflexive panic? steven: my view is that it is reflexive panic but in fairness to those who think it is a deeper impact, that sector is so overleveraged that the oil-based

firms topple over, there are spillover effects. i don't think it is going to be set for manic. that is the logic -- i don't think it is going to be that dramatic. that is the logic on the other side. goingn six months are we to say why were we concerned about plunging oil, we let ourselves get distracted, obviously, those commodities are a good thing? our savings rates are 5.5%, up almost a percentage point since the oil prices started dropping. we wanted to have a high savings rate. what that means is consumers are buying a lot of durables and quantity, but they are not paying a lot for it. this idea that because we are buying a lot of cars, we are overleveraged, i don't think is correct. if you look at the nominal sure , whetheres consumption in gdp -- alix: we actually do have that chart. steven: we are basically at

recession level. consumers are able to spend the money on other items. alix: something i feel it isn't so strong in the economy that everyone points to is the job market. what is the correlation between the volatility that we see and how does it might've trickling through to the job market? at some point you can say, hey, i don't want to hire anyone because i don't know what will wind up happening. this is risk factor, the yellow line, versus employment growth. steven: that is kind of a rorschach test. i don't see much correlation. alix: both going up. steven: well, both going up but not really one to one with each other. also, one is financial risk and the other is implement growth, which is a good thing. -- when is financial risk, which is a bad thing, and the other is employment growth, which is a good thing. tighter financial conditions causing employment growth to fall on the economy to fall over, that is really not visible

in the data. scarlet: in fact, what we do see, record stability in u.s. employment. growth,ook at 36 months pretty steady where it is now, and the orange line and the blue line, you can see there is pretty much record lows, lower than we were at other points. wealthy stability last -- will be stability last? i think it will last, and what it is telling you is that basically, the economy seems to be much more stable. we used to have very heavy industry, cyclical-based economy, and those jobs came and went big-time with every recession. now we have service after jobs. the service sector jobs seem to be more stable. demand is more stable. as a consequence, we have these record lows.

scarlet: steven englander of citigroup, you are sticking with us. when we come back, we will discuss the fed fund futures and how they indicate what the fed does next. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. time for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now. democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders is blasting the merger agreement between johnson controls and tyco international. the vermont senator is calling the company's corporate deserters and says the deal would be a disaster for taxpayers. way: job cuts are on the over at sprint. a person familiar with the matter says the wireless carrier

is reducing its workforce by 2500 people as part of a $2.5 billion cost savings plan. those jobs represent 7% of sprint's tol workforce. scarlet: twitter is losing for members of its executive team. the departures, as the social media company tries to revive growth after the stock lost half its value in 12 months. a person familiar with the matter said that twitter will add 2 new board members to guided to a turnaround. that is your bloomberg business flash. we are back with cd evening lender -- we are back with steven englander. joe: thank you for staying with us. something you pointed out, the markets implied expectation of said policy all the way out to 2022. still incredibly low. all the market is secular stagnation. what is going on here? why is the market so negative on the fed? steven: it is the follow-through

of what we were discussing before with oil prices, being reflected in nasa prices now and in the deep future. i think there is a pessimism out there. is market at the end of 2022 dropping 2.25% for fed funds. not even the most dovish fomc member is below 3% for the long-term equilibrium. the market really thinks the economy is going to go nowhere for a very long time. volatility,ind of though, does that create? the one-time the market has to reprice expectations, the fed has to reprice there is. doesn't that gap create traum ma? steven: the theme is that they make up the 52% inflation and they have to go to neutral very

quickly wake up to 2% inflation and they have to go to mutual very quickly. i think if there is a sudden adjustment -- say, one day we wake up and the wages are picking up and it turns out we all agreed to pass the national rate and the fed has to move quicker, the economy is certainly not ready for that. scarlet: on the other hand, if the fed doesn't get there, you write that being at the central bank means never having to say you are sorry. if it is not in the realm of something we can achieve in the next 12-18 months, do you just set new targets, create new metrics to put on your dashboard to focus on? steven: if it is possible to send a delegation to venezuela and often had to achieve an economic miracle, it would not involve fiscal policy at that point, although larry summers -- you can hit 2% inflation if you are willing to use all the means at your disposal.

alix: to put the other side here, someone said there are limits to spending growth financed by a combination of debt and money, and when these limits are reached, it marks the end of an upward phase of a long-term debt cycle, that is why we're seeing global weakness and deflationary pressures that warranted global easing rather than tightening. it was a mistake. what do you think of that assessment? steven: it is different if you talk about your debt and my debt. bettersselves and our -- creditors. if you are talking about the central bank and forgiving government debt, you will get inflation, ultimately, for a while. you might get some real growth. you can get to the target, but i think there's a lot more suppleness with respect to the way the market views the central bank and the government debt on it vs. the way it would view your balance sheet. scarlet: everything we say and

people look at is colored by what happened 6, 7 years ago. is this 2008 all over again? steven: i not think so. as many commentators have said, the banks and much more regulated, have a lot more constraints on what they can do, and we had the experience of 2007, 2008. everyone is watchful about the quality. joe: so you are relatively optimistic about the state of the u.s. economy, 2008 a site, what would get you to change her mind? -- your mind? say i'mlook, i would optimistic about the demand side, but potential growth in the u.s. is the weakest in 60 years. i think we can beat that low number in terms of demand. i think that if it turns out and one day we wake up demand justice appears -- just disappears to my think it will

be very difficult, if the pessimists are right, very difficult to move quickly from policy can which most of us are skeptical will work again, to a set of policy tools which would include fiscal policy that would work. i think that transition would be very, very difficult. and again, the prophets picture is tough. with low productivity and topline growth, low profits from it is unclear whether valuations a correct. scarlet: steven englander, thank you so much for laying out the different cases out there. alix: coming up, and liquidity shortage in the bond market. the very disturbing trends, next. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" something strange is happening in the treasury market could investors are buying lots of debt that is easy to sell and then as -- that is causing price distortion. tracy alloway is here to explain. why are investors clamoring for on the run treasuries? tracy: i feel like i'm becoming your strange financial markets correspondent. there is another weird thing happening in the treasury market, which is that investors are paying a big premium in order to hold newly issued treasuries that these are on the run treasuries. the idea here, we think, is that investors are willing to take more for securities because they are easier to trade. they are paying up for the ability to get liquidity from those assets.

scarlet: here is a dumb question -- liquidity in treasuries is not supposed to be guaranteed but supposed to be there, whether on or off the run. tracy: not dumb at all. startek -- when we talking about on liquidity years ago, we were talking my corporate bonds. since then we have had the concerns migrate over to the treasury market. for the same reasons. the idea is that banks have these regular missions and they are risk-averse and they don't want to hold big, big stockpiles of bonds on the balance sheet. the treasury market is slightly different and if anything, a lot of banks are incentivized to hold big buffers of treasuries could not necessarily for trading, that is the problem. joe: what is the theory for why this is? understand,o somewhat, in the corporate market, so gigantic and divers it would be hard for buyers and sellers to match up. it should not be hard for people to identify government bond trades. you are absolutely right

but you have to look at it on a relative basis. the newer treasury issue will be easier to trade than the older treasury issue. in this risk-off environment are willing to pay for the extra certainty that they will be able to get rid of it when the time comes. alix: what part of that is the demand space and what part of it is emerging-market selling, sovereign wealth fund selling? good: that is a really point. we have only seen these issues in the treasury market emerge because of some big foreign central banks selling their assets. the idea is as long as you have into heavy inflow treasuries, they mask the underlying liquidity issues in the market. as soon as people sell, they come to the four. a lot of people will point to average spreads on the straights and say look, these are fine there is no liquidity issue. we had a lot of analysts point out that one of the problems in

the market is we're seeing a lot of liquidity issues in the tail offense. .- tell events think back to october of last year when we had a big event in the treasury market. occurrence and we have seen it get more volatile. but on specific days rather than average. argument be that we are just getting back to normal and we saw this huge regulation that masks some of the issues and now they are coming back? rather than for liquidity, just returned to normal liquidity? tracy: that is one way of framing it. the problem with this whole liquidity debate we have been having for multiple years at this point in time is that for every data point, you can offer up a counterpoint. someone says the average spreads are fine. oh, look at the spreads on tail events. it is difficult to get to the bottom, and so much of what

people are complaining about is anecdotal. i would say volatility in the treasury market the last time i looked was at something like the highest since 1975. you could argue -- you could argue that the past few years have been totally unusual, hence the volatility now. you could also argue that there is something quite different. alix: inside the bloomberg terminal, the merrill lynch volatility index on treasuries, move index, you can see it right around here. we are not the way we were in 2008 or 2009 but still pretty elevated. scarlet: still pretty elevated. how much of this is because banks are trying to wind down the balance sheets or at least keep them as lean as possible in order to comply with regulation? is thewell, this argument many bankers like to trot out. they point you in the direction of things like the supplementary leverage ratio that make it more expensive to hold also the facets on the balance sheet, things like that. however, i would say that the theory behind all of this is so,

so very that it is a must impossible to untangle the not at this point. a lot of people say that -- to your point, joe -- we have had a different trading environment and investors pile into all sorts of bonds for the past five years and, what you know, when the flow starts to reverse, no one is on the other side and the quiddity becomes an issue. alix: great stuff. i love these random things that go into distorting the market tracy alloway. scarlet: coming up, when you need to know for the trading day, next. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" the busiest earnings season is coming up tomorrow. png will be reporting fiscal second-quarter earnings. joe: and tomorrow we get

manufacturing data. we will see if there's any signs of a bottom on this front. alix: apple day tomorrow, all about the iphone sales unit could do not miss it. all of that after the

mark: i'm a mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" both to mother nature and barry manilow -- ♪ looks like we made it john: happy week before the iowa caucuses. a big hawkeye state hello from our new home for the next week. the bloomberg politics "with all due respect" studio at the downtown area. seven days until democrats and republicans kick off election season with the iowa caucuses.