mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" both to mother nature and barry manilow -- ♪ looks like we made it john: happy week before the iowa caucuses. a big hawkeye state hello from our new home for the next week. the bloomberg politics "with all due respect" studio at the des moines downtown marriott. there are only seven days until democrats and republicans kick off election season with the iowa caucuses. we will be following every second of the closing arguments, the frenzy of campaign events,

polls, forums, debates, and media interviews. on the democratic side, after front runner hillary clinton saw her lead shrink in recent weeks, bernie sanders is sticking with the theme of hope and change and optimism, as seen in his latest and last iowa tv commercial. we have it for you here first. take a look. senator sanders: there are those who say we cannot defeat a corrupt political system and fix a rigged economy. but i believe we need to lift our vision above the obstacles in place and look to the american horizon. to a nation where every child cannot only dream of going to college, but attend one. where quality health care will be a birthright of every citizen. where a good job is not a wish, but a reality. where women receive equal pay and a living wage is paid to all. and america where after a lifetime of labor, there is time for rest and grandchildren. a nation that defends our people

and our values, but no longer carries so much of that burden alone. i know we can create that america if we look into our hearts, and that journey begins here in iowa. john: that ad is part of a big iowa buy that includes the simon and garfunkel ad we saw last week. what does bernie's closing ad say about the last thing he wants iowa voters to be thinking about before the caucuses? mark: another smart ad. they took the emotion from the simon and garfunkel ad and added all the policy proposals bernie sanders has been pushing that have caught the attention and some would say caught fire with iowa voters. another strong ad. finally, it is optimistic. would've been nice if he smiled at the end, but it is optimistic and that is the key to winning elections in america, and the clintons know that. john: i think optimistic, and the other word would be "visionary." in a weird way, this ad, though

it's a totally positive ad in any meaningful, there is an implicit critique here of clintonian politics. bernie is saying it is ok to dream big, it is ok to reach for the stars. we don't need to compromise all the time, we don't need to capitulate all the time, we don't want half measures and incrementalism. that is what we have gotten. we've always heard about from the clintons and gotten in some sense from barack obama. we want more. that is a powerful message for the democratic base. mark: it is coming back at hillary clinton, who is effectively saying that bernie sanders is unrealistic and the things he is advocating couldn't happen. he is saying to his supporters they can happen. these are things popular with the democratic base. the clintons, the ball is in their court to respond to this ad. another very effective ad and one that the sanders campaign is bullish on. hillary clinton has been trying to solve the berniementum. she is pushing a message of experience and resolve. she says she is the realistic candidate who can get things done in washington.

meanwhile, her allies, like the brady campaign to prevent gun violence, continue to criticize sanders' record on things like gun control. clinton herself seems to be backing off on what had been a policy of going negative against sanders on her own. why did she change her approach and pull back from criticizing sanders for a couple days and where does that leave her campaign in these final days? john: i have three words for you, mark. the first two are "iowa nice." the third is "surrogates," or outsourcing, if you will. this is a time-honored tactic where the candidate broadcasts a positive message while the surrogates do the dirty work. we are back to a more traditional path. this is a state that likes up, positive, optimistic. hillary clinton did not want to

close on a down note but she is making sure the people who support her are taking the meat axe still to bernie sanders. mark: i think some in her orbit feel strongly that if she closes on a negative note and she loses iowa, it compounds the loss. better to go out on a positive message, let the surrogates do what the surrogates do, and if she does lose, save the ability to go negative down the road in south carolina, where there is no such thing as south carolina nice. john: right, where there is a bigger appetite for negative politics. the president of the brady campaign to prevent gun violence hit bernie as hard as a surrogate could hit him, saying his record on guns was "disgraceful," dangerously in line with the gun lobby. obviously, the sanders campaign disputes that. it shows you that although the clintons are playing nice now in front of the cameras, and going for that optimistic message, as i said before, they've got plenty other people out there who will be hitting sanders hard.

that is one example today. mark: let me for not the first or last time say that the clintons are held to a double standard right now. sanders is going negative, in some ways personally negative, against clinton, something he said he wouldn't do, and is not paying much of a price in the media for that at all. when hillary clinton does anything negative, she does pay a price. it's not fair to the clintons. john: i agree with that. and i'll say, when i was commenting on surrogates going negative, i'm not saying there's anything wrong with it. i'm just noting it is happening. anyway, just when you thought there would be no more democratic debates before the iowa caucuses, cnn is holding a last-minute forum at drake university in des moines. bernie sanders, martin o'malley, and hillary clinton will all be speaking in that order. they will take questions from audience members and cnn anchor chris cuomo. what do you expect to see tonight, and will it matter? mark: bernie sanders did some events with voters and got emotional interactions with them. even though they won't be on the stage at the same time, this is

the last opportunity that we know of, unless something gets added again, for a big audience to watch, particularly in iowa, though there is a big game tonight that a lot of iowans will be watching. it is a high-risk thing for all three of them, and also an opportunity. john: yes, for sure. i want to take this opportunity to point out what a total mess this debate situation has been in the democratic party. this should be a debate, a regular old debate. last week before the iowa caucuses, we should have a final democratic debate here in iowa. instead, we have this jerryrigged candidate forum. better than nothing, but there's no good reason we shouldn't be having this as a formal debate where they could be onstage together. the dnc screwed this up start to finish. mark: the question is what the voters ask, the audience put together by cnn, as i understand it. interesting to see how much of a role the questioners and journalists play in framing this. the stakes are high. the choices of what gets asked

and of whom is going to be a big deal, to state the most obvious possible thing. it is the last big event. after this, it is all tv ads and campaigning and surrogates. up next, after the break, the race for the republican nomination and the latest drama between front-runners donald trump and ted cruz, after this word from our sponsors. ♪

mark: it is a distant memory now, those boring days when donald trump and ted cruz had their peace accord. and now the two republican front-runners have been sniping at each other pretty much every opportunity they get. the latest is this new anti-trump tv ad in iowa and south carolina, paid for by keep the promise i, one of the main

ted cruz-backing super pacs. >> donald trump is not a conservative because he is extreme on abortion. >> would president trump ban partial-birth abortion? mr. trump: i'm very pro-choice. >> you would not ban it? mr. trump: no, i'm pro-choice in every respect. >> does this sound conservative? mr. trump: i am pro-choice in every respect. i am pro-choice in every respect. i am pro-choice in every respect. >> on partial birth abortion, not a conservative. mark: today, in what appeared to be something of a response to that cruz team attack, donald trump went on the web with this video. mr. trump: the establishment, the media, the special interests, the lobbyists, the donors, they are all against me. i'm self-funding my campaign. i don't owe anybody anything. i only owe it to the american people to do a great job.

they are really trying to stop me. everybody knows it, everybody sees it. we're going to win, win it for the people, win it for our country. mark: trump did an interview with cnn today, part of which aired this afternoon. he called cruz "a nasty guy and a whack job." the perception is that cruz gets the worst of the back-and-forth with donald trump. does he fare any better in this latest volley and exchange? john: i think he handled it relatively well but i wish we could deviate from what we have the past few days, but ted cruz on his back foot, donald trump on his front foot, throwing punches. cruz on defense, not where he wants to be. mark: if this cruz super pac ad does not break through, if iowa voters don't look at this and think differently about donald trump, i'm not sure any ad in the context of the nomination fight will get him.

it is well produced. it has all of trump's old comments, saying - you know, new york values, not iowa values. we will see if it works. but with the back-and-forth between the two candidates, trump is still doing pretty well. john: i think the ad is strong but i continue to ask -- there is a reason we call him the teflon don. a lot of this information is not new information. it might be new to some voters, but it's been discussed. i continue to think those are not the things, the things about ideological consistency, that are going to put a dent in donald trump. mark: the other thing is that cruz got rick perry's endorsement today. that is a big deal, a lot of earned media for that. john: important in iowa, where rick perry had a little bit of a following and it could matter. so far, most of the political bigwigs in iowa have pointedly refused to endorse republican candidates for president. but have they put their grubby, tenderloin-smeared thumbs on the scales anyway? yes, they have.

iowa governor terry branstad says donald trump lacks the experience and nuance to be president. sen. chuck grassley of this great state showed up at a trump event over the weekend. and senator joni "the one who castrates pigs" ernst appeared with marco rubio in des moines. i don't believe any castration took place. again, none of these folks are officially supporting any candidate in this race. why are these influential iowa republicans making these non-endorsement endorsements? mark: they all say they don't want to endorse because that could interfere with people participating and candidates coming to iowa, but all of them want to put their thumb on the scale. the press speculates endlessly about whether voters can tell the difference between a non-endorsement endorsement and an endorsement endorsement. i've no idea whether they can or not. i do know that joni ernst has been close to marco rubio for a while, and charles grassley and the governor would like to see

trump beat cruz in the end. john: i think, look, a nonendorsement endorsement could be as good as an endorsement if it brought with it fundraising, if it brought with it going around the state and doing a number of events, crowd building, get out the vote efforts. if it is just one event, one week out from the caucuses, or one news media comment or something, taking a shot at a candidate, i don't think those things matter very much, because they don't stick. you can imagine a situation in which the nonendorsement endorsement matters a lot but i'm not sure this is it. mark: i think at least one of them does, but i won't say which. this weekend, "the new york times" reported that michael bloomberg, former new york mayor, is weighing a bid for the white house this year. he is reportedly considering a run if donald trump or ted cruz get the republican omniscient and bernie sanders wins the democratic contest.

of course, mr. bloomberg is our boss, he owns the company we work for, but the editorial positions here are controlled by our editors. with that caveat, is there a scenario by which there is a realistic path for michael bloomberg to run for president and win? john: well, i think there is a realistic scenario but i don't think it is very likely. you and i have both covered mike bloomberg's dalliances with running for president on two successive cycles previously, 2008 and 2012. the one thing i learned about it is he was a rationalist, he would only run if he could win. you can imagine a scenario if donald trump or ted cruz and bernie sanders were the nominees. even then, i think even if you crunch the numbers, there is some chance you would come to the conclusion that it is not very likely, impossible to win, and probably in the end mayor bloomberg will end up not in this race. mark: very difficult for any

independent to get 270 electoral votes. he has made clear he will only run if he can win. he is not interested in affecting the debate or being a spoiler in any way. he wants a good chance to be president, and there is a possibility with certain configurations that could happen. he set the deadline for march in part because of a filing deadline. it is possible we won't know who the nominees would be that soon and the clock might run out for him. it will take quite a constellation, the stars and moons aligning, for this to be a reality and i think those things are unlikely. not impossible. john: hard to imagine a scenario where we know bernie sanders will be the democratic nominee by march. when we come back, phil rucker and kathie obradovich. ♪

john: joining us now are phil rucker, correspondent for "the washington post," and kathie obradovich - i love saying that name -- of "the des moines register." kathie, i want to talk about the democratic race, leading to phil's latest story, but give us a sense of where things stand between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. kathie: i don't think it could possibly be any closer. the polls show a couple points apart and people are still making up their minds. everything is going to matter. do endorsements matter? usually they don't, but everything matters now. this town hall tonight, no one can afford to make a step out of line.

john: you don't dispute the notion, though, that there is a large and enthusiasm gap between the sanders forces and clinton forces? which may not be decisive, but there is a large gap. kathie: enthusiasm matters only if people don't go out to the caucuses. if we have bad weather and some people think, oh, well, i don't need to go -- but in a close race everybody gets enthusiastic and everybody thinks that their vote matters. john: phil, you have a piece today with your colleague -- philip: john wagner. john: mr. wagner. you have so many colleagues over there that i forget who is who. about sanders. wagner did the interview and you helped him write it up. it was striking, he was very negative. coming from bernie sanders, who said for so long i will not engage in the politics of personal destruction, i only want to talk about policy. he is now as negative as hillary clinton is.

philip: he has become a more traditionally combative candidate. i think he sees a chance to win and he sees the attacks coming his way from hillary clinton and he wants to fight back but he is initiating some of his own. he went after her speaking fees from goldman sachs and he told john in the interview that he thinks clinton is running a desperate campaign and there is no sign of any enthusiasm or energy for her. that is not quite true. i was at her rally last night and she had a very big crowd. john: used the word "desperation" at me a week ago and it has popped up again and again. i want to go to my friend mark halperin to take the interview in his own direction. mark, where are you? mark: kathie, in looking at the schedules of secretary clinton, senator sanders, the kinds of groups they are talking to, does anything stand out as tells about what kind of effort in terms of demography or geography in the last week? kathie: well, i think hillary

clinton is making a hard pitch to younger women. i think we are seeing that with some of the groups she is meeting with and talking to, which is interesting. young women are not necessarily really heavy voters. they are not reliable in getting out, so trying to push there. i think what bernie sanders is doing and needs to do is make sure that people see him around the state, not just in college towns. we saw him, for example, on the east coast of iowa, and clinton in places like that. that is really important. you can't afford to run the board in the college towns. you have to have support statewide. mark: phil, as you talk to people and deal with people in both campaigns, i wonder if you are sensing anything in the body language. are they equally relaxed, equally confident, equally upset? how would you compare the mood of the campaigns at this point? philip: they do seem equally confident. they both have pretty strong

ground games. i think they are hoping for that. certainly the clinton campaign is concerned about the surge from sanders and they are getting aggressive in how they fight back against him and we will have to see how these ground games work. mark: john? john: guys, problems with our being in 2 separate cities. talk to me about trump-cruz. kathie: we talked about whether iowa politicians are putting their thumb on the scale, and i think terry branstad put his elbow on the scale also. john: that is not an image i really wish to contemplate. kathie: the question i have is will republicans be able to come back together after this? this is not just a thumb in the eye of ted cruz but the evangelicals and the christian right folks supporting him.

that bad feeling doesn't go away when the caucuses go away. this might be a lingering issue here in iowa politics. john: this i keep thinking about -- elbow on the scale, thumb in the eye. kathie: political twister. john: phil, we know that trump and cruz, very clear they are the top-tier for a long time. do you imagine there is a surprise in the bronze medal race? rubio is kind of established, according to the polling, as the third-place guy, but i keep thinking one of these other guys might surprise us. philip: rubio just got "the des moines register" endorsement over the weekend and has got big crowds. they see a chance to contend for a solid third-place and distance himself from the other establishment candidates. chris christie will be working this state hard. there is a debate on thursday. maybe jeb bush will have a good night and a little bit of

energy, too. john: do you think -- if you look at the others, bush, kasich, who is really not in play at all, but let's say bush and christie. who might be the breakthrough of those two? kathie: if chris christie breaks through it will surprise people and you get the beating expectation factor as well. for a long time in iowa the contest has not been which mainstream candidate is going to get into the top three. it has been which mainstream candidate is going to beat jeb bush? it has sort of been bush and everybody else and right now it looks like rubio is the guy who can beat jeb bush. but kasich and christie have made little more of an effort to christie is the one who has the juice. john: i hate at this moment after we just arrived in iowa to think about anything beyond the caucuses, but i will in this one instance, phil, and ask you this question. traditionally new hampshire does not care about what happens in

iowa. if marco rubio finishes third in iowa, does that turn into anything in new hampshire? philip: it might. if there is one person to look for in new hampshire, it is john kasich. he may be a surprise. john: philip rucker, kathie obradovich -- i love saying that -- thank you so much. you will be back again this week. coming up, the dilemma facing establishment candidates in new hampshire. don't forget, if you're watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us, too on 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

mark: this week was the second episode of our new show on showtime, "the circus."

the show is on every sunday at 8:00. it was called the prisoner's dilemma about the challenge facing the establishment republicans in new hampshire. this features chris christie, marco rubio, john kasich and jeb bush. >> a granite state hello to all of you. what have you learned that you did not know before? >> why are you not going at trump? chris christie: i'm getting political advice from donny deutsch. the only thing i would do with donny deutsch is a murder suicide pact.

john: does that feel risky? is it do or die? chris christie: i think the whole thing is risky. rubio seems to put no eggs in any basket. what decision you make, the whole enterprise is inherently risky. you have to make the best strategic decisions you can make and then go for it. john: you spent a lot of time in 2014 getting pummeled. you went from being a potential front runner to being a late-night comedy joke. chris christie: i think the going through that has made me a better candidate. once i get through that, i got a

advice from a really good friend. you are now the most dangerous kind of guy in politics. you had a near-death experience but you didn't die. in washington they don't talk to each other anymore. i am happy to be here. you worked already this morning? i got some goats in the new jersey legislature i can give you. >> he knows the clock is running down and time is running out. chris christie: i am in the game in a way that nobody ever thought i would be.

marco rubio: jimmy fallon has an 800 number? hello? i am a miami dolphins fan. we're never going to win the division as long as tom brady is out there. so i will give both brady and belichick cabinet appointments. how can they pass that up? people told me that they were talking about the boots. a big heel on them. that's what came with the boot.

john kasich: i thought they were going well even before you people started to pay attention to me. we are doing very well in new hampshire. mark: i do not know of his penchant for horrible jokes. john kasich: you're making beer here? it will keep you hopping. save the moose. that's a good one.

the second-moose that's come my way. thank you much for coming. mark: this is like the olympics of retail politics. >> here on my floating in a tin can far above the word. john kasich: i am not into all this comparative stuff. a lady reporter said you are calm and you have fun and if somebody asks you a question and

you don't know you tell them you don't know. what separates you from others? you just said it. mark: it is a bit of a prisoner's dilemma because each of you thinks that one of the four should be the nominee. john weaver: candidates and their teams don't think that way. you are in it to win it.

jeb bush: you are all over the place. i like polls that show moving up. our timing is perfect. i have to get a hug from you. [applause] >> it just reinforces a good feeling about democracy. ultimately good public servants. jeb bush: that wasn't a question, that was a love affair. >> we are to join up with a woman who donated money and was picked as the contest winner to have dinner with jeb bush.

jeb bush: you had a contest too? >> i think there will be a surprise winner. we really banking on this man over here. mark: all four of those guys are fighting hard in new hampshire. what kind of third does rubio need to maybe push ahead in new hampshire? john: given the contrariness of new hampshire voters, it is not clear to me that any third-place finishes going to help. if he was very close to cruz or trump that would be a big thing.

maybe one of the establishment candidates will surprise us here in iowa. mark: if trump ends up close to 40% in new hampshire, i don't know if it is mathematically impossible for any of the four establishment guys to surge enough to have a good showing. i did well enough here to go to south carolina with momentum. john: they have all gotten a lot better. much better than they were just a few months ago. mark: not just better but objectively good. the circus is on each week on

showtime. produced in conjunction with bloomberg politics. now a look at hillary clinton's ground game in iowa. after this. ♪

john: a couple of weeks ago we showed you something from our residents oh tour about the ground operation of the bernie sanders campaign. we're showing you apart to about ii about the clinton campaign. hillary clinton: the people and i will to make the first choice. the entire country, the entire world, is watching to see what happens right here in iowa.

how do people here have ready made a phone call or knocked on the door? i want to invite everyone else to come join with us. thank you. we want more people to be able to raise their hands before february 1. >> my name is brenton i'm calling with the hillary clinton campaign. >> i'm making phone calls making sure that everyone who has said they are coming to the caucus will be there. last weekend i called more than 220 people in two hours.

i was out walking for six hours. every weekend this month we have knocked on more doors than the weekend before. despite subzero temperatures. >> we moved from oahu to des moines to participate in the caucuses. >> my son was diagnosed with autism. as first lady she helped design the program that my son is on. there are a lot of busy people out there. it is a matter of getting them to take the time. >> there people who are gun shy

about, i don't want other people to know who i support. >> is disappointing that only 10% of the people get out to the caucuses. hillary clinton: some of you are already committed to caucus for me. some of you are on the fence i hope we can move you over. some of you are still trying to make up your mind. i hope that i can earn your support. >> at the beginning everybody was undecided. now a lot of people are decided. >> i will be the precinct captain which means i will be running the show for hillary supporters in my neighborhood. >> when the doors opened and making sure that we are visible

in the corners of the library wherever whereat. making sure they know where the hillary clinton supporters are. >> to help bring more people over to hillary. we are thinking there may be some undecideds. it is possible that the o'malley supporters may not be viable and we are going to try to convince them to come with hillary. >> we have been working methodically since april to earn every vote. in every corner of the county in every corner of the state. we think we will see some great results on for very first. hillary clinton: i can't do any of this alone. i need you. i need you making phone calls and knocking on doors. i need you caucus and on february 1. and then i need you to help me win iowa in november and go into the white house as your partner. thank you all so very much. [applause]

john: our thanks to the great griffin hammond. we will be right back with a special message from davos. ♪

mark: leaders from around the world were the world economic forum.

she posed questions about the 2016 presidential race. stephanie: what is the biggest factor out there in your world affecting the election? michael: confidence of we have a healing or largely healed consumer. we want them to engage back in the economy, housing, spending. companies really willing to invest. invest in research and development. stephen: education should be number one. that applies to income inequality which we have a lot of in the united states. the technology world and the

ability of labor throughout the world has changed the whole relationship. they have got to talk about how we revolutionize the education system so people can move up the ladder and stop the income inequality. jim: what i care about maybe different from what the voters care about. a real problem in terms of the inability of people who start off life poor to do better. social mobility has gone down in the united states. we have to think about creating a country again were every single person has the chance to be the world bank president. has the chance to be president of the united states. tom: we need to get people who are running to talk about the fundamental economics of this country. our system is being choked to death by an explosive regulatory system. arne: the candidates are not talking about a lot today. we should look at tax policy and

really make sure that tax policy is set up to encourage investment in the united states. right now it is set up to encourage investment abroad. because tax rates are lower abroad. ken: we should get the federal reserve out. i do think the fed has caused some of the overreach in the bubble in assets that we are looking at here. the sooner they get out of the management of the economy the better we are going to be. mark: we'll be right back. ♪

john: somebody won this day. who won it? mark: marco rubio got joni ernst to appear with him and is now edging up in the polls. he got the des moines register endorsement. he is now best poised to be the establishment alternative if he can perform in new hampshire. john: rubio is one of the winners. all of those new hampshire establishment republicans are

winners. because the patriots lost yesterday. on super bowl sunday new hampshire will not be fixated on the super bowl, it will be fixated on politics. those establishment republicans will get all the attention they need. what are you looking for in iowa? mark: which candidate connection to get hot and tries the same message every day on the stump? john: i want to see hillary clinton. so much of the question for her is her ground game. can it match sanders enthusiasm? tomorrow we have the master of

the ground game. live from san francisco. we are on twice a day. if you're watching in washington, you can also listen on the radio. 99.1 fm. mark: all week will be in iowa covering the caucuses. thanks for watching. keep watching us. sayonara. ♪

it is tuesday, the 26th of january. this is "trending business". this is a look at what we are watching kerry we have markets opening. is alsog shanghai lower. oil is greasing the wheels. brokers are saying it is not

time to be adding risk. crude is back below $30 a barrel. u.s. stockpiles expanded again. saudi arabia is saying low prices will not affect their spending plans. gold heads for a three month high. with you think about our top stories. howus take a look at just steep or deep these declines are across the asia-pacific. yvonne: continues to get deeper. coming online carried down .5%. , one of the stocks big losers of the day now one play 4%. the nikkei is still the big one today, down 2% snapping