john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halerin. and with all due respect to the current republican field, rick perry is back in iowa. >> it feels rate. it smells right. it is right. mark: hello from what we modestly call the center of the political universe for another week. we are here in iowa, at the des moines marriott. a week to go before the presidential caucuses. today, candidates of both parties crisscrossed the state, and we spent time on the trail

was under ted cruz and his newest surrogate, former rival rick perry. we will have our conversation later in the program, but first, a look at some of the latest polls. on the republican side, some new national surveys show donald trump still has a very big lead. ted cruz is solidly in second place, rubio in third. he's the leader in that establishment bracket. there is a new poll of new hampshire republicans, trump with the big lead, double anyone else. ted cruz gives second, followed by john kasich. here in iowa, most of the polls are showing the race quite close. a new poll shows trump leading ted cruz 31 to 29. today, out on the trail, i had a chance to ask cruz how he is dealing with the final stage. >> you seem pretty relaxed. >> yeah, we are having fun.

>> what do you tell your staff about how to deal with the pressure? >> keep our focus on will we have been doing from day one. unifying and energizing. that was the object at the beginning. >> do you think you can withstand the pressure of presidential campaigns? >> the entire process of the campaign -- the voters are making an assessment. the great thing about iowa and new hampshire is that they are looking at you directly. it's not what they are saying on tv, but what they say and observe with their own eyes. >> and after all this work, are you looking forward to monday? excited to see people vote? >> i am having more fun than i have ever had in my life. if you are holed up in your hotel room watching tv, you might have noticed that there

are at least five ads sponsored by ted cruz or one of his super pac's are going hard after donald trump on issues like abortion, health care, and eminent domain. by thethem, one released campaign and one by the super pac, look awfully similar. take a look. with president drumm first amendment rights? trumpld president ban partial-birth abortion? >> you would not ban it. >> no. i am pro-choice in any respect. mark: of course, the super pac and campaigns are wont to coordinate and they said great minds think alike. regardless of the weird similarity, how would you rate this attempt to fight back? john: first, a brief word on

coordination -- if it looks like it in smells like it -- i'm not accusing anyone of breaking the law, but probably. i think this is the most sustained, well-financed assault on donald trump heterodoxy we have yet seen, but i have never seen any evidence that it will cause him any harm on the basis of everything we have seen, even though the attacks have not been sustained. you talk to reporters and they don't care. they don't care whether he is conservative. they like him because he is strong and still strong. mark: and ads don't mean as much as the news coverage. none of them are making news. they are bringing things that have been brought up before. if you want getting news coverage, you won't break through, especially when trump comes to the state again to do will.allies that blot out anything else it is there to say that a lot of voters don't focus on this

but the fact that we all talked about it means we think it is not new information. it means that it will get that urge media attention. for cruz voters who care about ideological consistency, this reinforce their sense that they like cruz more than trump. but i don't see how this strips away trump support, and that is what he needs to do. mark: the history of this fight is written -- the cruz campaign might look back and say, we were sitting on tens of millions of dollars that we could have spent in the fall to try and change the dynamics. a week before the caucuses, probably too late. john: absolutely. ted cruz is going after donald trump, and the donald is laser focused on cruz's strength with evangelicals. today, jerry falwell, jr. announced he was endorsing trump, calling him "a successful executive and entrepreneur, wonderful father, and a man who can lead our country to greatness again." at the same time, trump has

taken, as he often does, to his famous twitter account to blast cruz. obvious, buty be why is trump so focused on evangelicals here in iowa, and will this package work? mark: trump lives by one dictus -- what is mine is mine and what is yours we will negotiate over. he wants to do as much as he can not just to get supporters away havecruisz, but you huckabee and santorum -- those are up for grabs if those candidates collapse. trump wants to be in the game, and he wants a cruz defend his turf. john: it is also the case -- we talked about this -- cruz is very ostentatiously quoting scripture at his events. trump for screwing up on quotation of scripture on more than one occasion, and

trump's evangelicals griddles are not strong but he is doing well. he's going after cruz's strength, and i think he is probably best off and is trying to get -- probably pissed of f. mark: endorsement by falwell was met with a lot of anger. it shows, again, trump's capacity to play in all lanes. national polls, staples -- you polls, he is strong with everyone. he's not just here but down the road. a big development in the race for the republican nomination. seems like a small thing on its own, but the new senator from nebraska put out a statement today saying he plans to come to iowa over the next few days to campaign with marco rubio and ted cruz. it opens the possibility of campaigning with other people,

who he describes his constitutional candidates. oesterday, he took th twitter to blast donald trump. so john, this is a senator basically saying i am going to use my credibility to stop trump. what does this mean as we go forward? john: they could be a canary in the coal mine, although it is a latebreaking coal mine. mark: and an unknown canary. john: they are trying to launch a sustained assault. that could be the case. -- moreue to look at than 60% of republicans have been in favor of anti-establishment candidates for the last nine months. i don't know if the establishment has the weight to change the fundamental dynamics. mark: there are aspects of his biography that make him an establishment candidate, that he is from a neighboring -- but he is from a neighboring state. there will come a moment unless donald trump has an index with

google collapse where you will see more senators say, stop hi m. i predict there will be more of this in the coming days, if donald trump wins. john: the moments that will be the moment is the moment when george w. bush, john mccain, mitt romney all lock arms after a trump victory and say we are standing up to donald trump. this could be a precursor to that. mark: they can also be too little and too late. john: what happens if bernie sanders comes in second here in iowa? and later, our conversation with rick perry on his return to the campaign trail. ♪

mark: time for talk about the democrats. bernie sanders play the expectations game here, despite a growing sense that he may have the upper hand over hillary clinton in the hawkeye state. of vermont senator told reporters here in des moines that in the end of the iowa caucuses might be too close to call. >> for my mind, we will win here in iowa if the voter turnout is high. frankly, if the voter turnout is not high, we will be struggling. mark, given all of the talk that bernie mentioned about how he could win, with everything we have heard, what are the implications is now, after all that, he gets in second? mark: we know the expectations game is an extraordinarily complicated part of this process. if sanders is close on caucuses, within four points, three points, a second would be ok. but if hillary clinton pushes a five-point win or more it could break the back of the sanders

campaign. once upon a time would have been more than good enough, but now i think it is a real close second that put them in danger. john: he has to win in new hampshire to ever win the i think theand is a favoritess here. he's succeeded in raising expectations by being tough with her, by talking about the fact that he thought he would win iowa. it's now to the point where i think it will be seen as a collapse, and people will look at him and say -- you almost had the caughe cut off. mark: if you take out a few of the outline polls -- john: i know. mark: look, there is no doubt -- if you assume sanders can win, you better when. but i think clinton might be good enough. we talked yesterday about how hillary clinton has been backing off. the strategy to go personally negative against bernie sanders. her surrogates and campaign

staffers are keeping at it, even though she stopped. her allies are piling on attacking sanders for his record on guns, and his ability to get things done in washington. we have seen a lot of this in the past, the candidates play good cop while the allies are the bad cop. john, in iowa, in this race, is that a good strategy for her to stay positive well her seconds go after sanders? john: i think it is a good strategy to stay positive. i think the problem is that she's hillary clinton, and she is held to a different standard. people always look at her as if she is playing ventriloquist. guff fromgets those who don't like negative campaigns, for having her surrogates to her dirty work. she might as well do it herself. mark: i disagree. i think she should stay on the high road. john: just let everyone be on the high road. mark: people under appreciated

the targeting they can do on issues like guns, on health care , etc. they are very clever with mail and phones and reaching targeted constituencies. going with that message of contrast is smart, even if she doesn't do it herself. john: if she ends up winning here, it will have been a masterful campaign. she has not had the enthusiasm, the momentum, the history other than coming in third in 2008. if she pulls it off it will be about that targeting, about having had incredible campaigning. mark: she needs to win some new cycles. john: coming up, rick perry is cruising through iowa with his new buddy, ted cruz. what rick perry said about 2016, and more, right after this. ♪

mark: earlier today, we spoke with former texas governor rick barn, where he was campaigning for the man he endorsed yesterday, ted cruz. we started out talking about his overall sense of the current crazy fight for his party's nomination. >> i think it is down to two people. i think this is ted cruz and donald trump. a lotta good people. when bobby jindal and scott walker, and to some degree jeb bush, were discounted because they were professional politicians, you know you are in a different environment. it is what it is. i respect this process, the voters, therir will. they are mad at washington. they want somebody to go in and substantially change the

culture, change the direction. think it is down between those two, and with that choice, it was easy for me to decide that ted cruz was the consistent conservative. you look at his wife and what he has worked on, and he has always been a very consistent conservative. donald trump, not so much. john: what issues -- >> across the board. you know as well as anybody. john: for people who are trying to decide. >> i think there is a very powerful 22-movement conservatives that put an article in "the national review" that talked about how trump is not a committed conservative. he has been for the assault weapons ban, now he's all for the second amendment. well, that is not working.

you can't be for an assault weapons ban and, sometime later, become mr. second amendment. there was a video out today that shows him being for partial-birth abortion. now he's pro-life. -- and a third one i would suggest is on this issue of private property. eminent domain is a process that has worked in america over the course of years, for highways, roads, pipelines -- there is a process you go through, and you work that out. but taking away someone's private property for a casino caning lot so a developer enrich themselves is not the type of eminent domain i think most americans are for. there's real clear differences between ted cruz and donald trump when it comes to some

court conservative values -- some core conservative values. john: you talk about the party being mad at washington. jeb bush has worked in washington. chris christie. john kasich. >> pretty nasty stuff about washington. john: those are three governors -- what is wrong with them? >> there is nothing wrong with them. these are fine people. but the fact is, the electorate doesn't want that. now working from the premise of what i want, of what i wish. i am working with reality. and the american public has sent a message to me that says we want one of these two people, and we are sorting our way through it. i, ok, if that is the case, want to do a very personal process with ted. i didn't know him. i knew him as a caricature -- mark: you to never hooked up.

>> well, washington -- i don't know a lot of people of the congressional delegation that well. i know them by what i read about them, and that was the case with the senator. he was gracious to reach out to me and say i would like to sit down and talk to you, and we did. as i said earlier, we didn't talk about politics, this election cycle, not even philosophy. i wanted to find out who he was as a person. john: you are someone who is familiar with the challenge of having the public getting a sense of what you are like. a lot of people who know him well, they all think he is a great guy. honest, humble, sincere. why is the perception o amongst his senate colleagues not that? >> i don't know. why was there a perception that george w. bush wasn't smart? he was a very bright man. i dealt with it, i knew him.

mark: out of that happen in our society, that some people can project to they are? donald trump is going hard -- >> there are a lot of people out story aboutoject a other people that aren't true. that has been going on since -- john: socrates. [laughter] >> maybe even before that. the point is, it is up to individuals who do care about this country and where we are headed. i want a very consistent person to be my president. i don't want to wake up every day and wonder where we are going to be today relative to iran. i wonder where we will be today relative to israel. relative to this tax, that regulation. me, bothhas proven to with his actions and with conversations i have had, that

he will be consistent. john: two questions on policy. i was on television this morning with donald trump, and i asked him where he had cruz differed. the first thing he pointed to his immigration. he says cruz is too soft on immigration, wouldn't go as far as trumpet what. -- trump would. >> did you ask how long it would take, how much it would cost? i would love to know -- those are really important. this thing of making mexico pay for it -- mark: you don't have any concerns about cruz being too soft on immigration. >> there are two words that you don't say in the same sentence about ted cruz -- "soft" and "stupid." it is my understanding that he was called stupid by donald

trump yesterday. come on. they don't go in the same sentence was ted cruz. terry branstad has been pretty tough on senator cruz on the ethanol issue. what do you think? >> he has the same position i had. i come from the state that has a very large animal agricultural andstry, so when a drought corn prices go through the roof at the same time, it is hard on the animal industry. waiver earlyr a on. when i read an appearance, i told people -- when i ran up here, i told people we need to look at all the energy subsidies and, quite frankly, take them across the board away and compete on a level playing field. i'm an agriculture producer. i understand an iowa farmer and what they want. they want to sell their corn.

we need to focus more on getting our corn sold internationally than on propping up this renewable fuel standard. i think ted is correct on that. this is a form of crony capitalism that people talk about throughout the years that i think americans are ready to see removed. remove it, but have processes in soce to open up the market, these farmers -- they don't care where they sell their court, they just want to sell their corn. zohn: this trump-cru fights -- will go a long time or will one of them went quick? >> i don't know. i know iowa is important. when voters in iowa -- when the evangelical voter in iowa, ted cruz or donald trump? i go back to one moment in time

that i think crystallizes it for me. i think a lot of evangelicals here in iowa are sitting on the stage with frank oncluntz, and e asked the donald trump had ever asked god for forgiveness. matter-of-factly, "nope." mark: our thanks to governor perry. when we come back, president obama's former campaign manager joins us. don't forget, if you are watching this program in washington, you can now listen .1 in at the radio on 99 the nations capital. right back after this. ♪

mark: our next guest is president obama's former campaign manager, david plouffe

, who joins us from san francisco. we don't want to talk about anything but politics today,. you spent a lot of time and iowa -- time in iowa 4 and 8 yers ago. what do you see in the democratic race? david: i think iowa is going to be close. my suspicion is that bernie sanders' expectations have risen. he is the one that to win it. hillary clinton will be strong in all 99 counties. that is important in terms of democrat -- delegate allocation. i think you'll be strong throughout the state. bernie sanders has run a great campaign. he will have outside strength in places like johnson county. tuesday.is separation bernie sanders obviously has to

win a lot of states up to that point. you have florida, ohio, missouri, it is amazing the big states happening that date. it's hard it to see a scenario where hillary clinton does not ultimately secure the nomination, and i think with some strength. john: you endorsed hillary clinton a while back. what went into your thinking to endorse her rather than secretary sanders? david: i think bernie sanders has run a great campaign. if you told me a year ago that donald trump would be the likely nominee and bernie sanders could win new hampshire, you would get a million to one odds on that. that is what makes politics so crazy. democrat or republican, she would be the strongest and best commander-in-chief to carry on president obama's legacy. from a general election standpoint, the odds that trump or cruz will be the republican

nominee. something funky could happen. to hand the oval office over to one of them would be catastrophic. bernie sanders may win the race. hillary clinton could certainly win. from the ready to be president, ready to achieve important progressive aims, i think she is the best candidate. mark: if you were to go over to the sanders campaign as a management consultant, what are the two things you would like to look at to see how strong their organization is? david: the term we use in iowa "ones," your firm supporters. are you watching that to the distribution of delegates? are you strong both in terms of your caucus attender pledges, but in terms of the organization? there is nothing like it in american politics.

i think they hillary clinton campaign are doing a great job. they learned a lot from 2008. they are deep everywhere in all 99 counties. they have an organization all of the precincts. they are paying attention to how those delegates may unfold on caucus night. that is the real question -- how deep are you, both in terms of support and organization? what does that mean in terms of the actual delegate production on caucus night? mark: on the other side of the aisle, senator cruz cites you all the time as a model for what he's trying to build. i know you don't know the republicans as well as democrats, but do you think the cruz has done a good job emulating what you have done effectively? david: first of all, don't blame me for that. [laughter] that is a burden i can't shoulder. my sense is, and i'm not a republican primary expert, but cruz is probably running the smartest and most methodical campaign. the iowa rules are different on the democrat side.

you still have to show up at one time, but he little less burdensome. organizations still matter. cruz probably has a better sense. if you look at his schedule, i was impressed when i glanced at it. he is going to smaller communities, clearly based on delegate production. one thing trump has not done he has been going your major urban centers. my guess is because it's more convenient for him travel lights. if he loses this, he will regret that. cruz is running the smartest race in terms of marrying his strategy to the actual allocation of delegates on caucus night. mark: david, you would be surprised, or maybe not, when trump draws so many people from all of the state. he is drawing in so many people just may single event -- just from a single event. david: right, but it still

matters to show up. you will get some spillover. you will have people all the way over from webster county, maybe. but is not the same as going into the community. you have to be on the ground, doing many events in the major counties like scott, like polk, but you have to get into these smaller communities. it is part of the recipe. trump has defied every conventional wisdom there is. so maybe he will defy this one. john: let me bring you back to the democratic side. help us provide a viewing guide. if you care about the outcome of the democratic side, and watching tv on monday night on the caucuses, what should you be looking forward to get an early idea of how things will turn out? david: in terms of the county results? yeah, if i am sitting at home watching the coverage, what should i be looking for as an early tip?

is hillary doing what she needs to do to win, or is sanders doing the same? david: there will be an overall projected turnout. the higher that is, the better it is for sanders. we went into the stratosphere in 2008 with over 200,000. sanders is going to do well in iowa city. how well is he doing along the missouri-iowa border? how lonwell is he doing along the-- strength open down the border and mississippi river. hillary clinton should be strong there. is wes race, the question know that sanders is going to do well in college communities. scottns polk and counties? if clinton win those, i think

she will perform a better entity rural -- better in the rural counties. she has done better in the south dakota border. john: david plouffe, we could have you on all day, and perhaps sometime we will. democratic strategist and hillary clinton supporter jerry crawford after this. ♪

mark: joining us now, two iowa institutions. one, a man described as a strategist, race horse owner, human rolodex, and hillary

clinton supporter. and a man acting bernie sanders. gentlemen, thank you for being with us. mr. campbell, first, tell us how you feel in your gut about bernie sanders being first in the iowa caucuses. >> we had our first meeting and i'm excited. retirees coming out, active members, people who have never caucused before are willing to engage and look at our issues, finally for the first time in a long time. mark: in your gut, sanders is going to be first or second? guest: we are going to be first. coming.body saw barack ground up.om the nobody can predict how any given night -- the weather, or any circumstance. ple.passion moves peo mark: jerry crawford, what keeps

you up at night, although you are known to be a sound sleeper, about the sanders campaign? [laughter] guest: first, they are lucky to have john's leadership. he has been a credit to this race. he has made it very interesting. i think it's been great spring training. having said that, i could not be more confident. john is talking about the great crowd they had at the steelworkers hall. unions havenal endorsed sanders, 23 have endorsed clinton. on it goes. because as barack obama said yesterday, she is the most prepared person to seek the presidency other than a vice president in the history of our country. henry kissinger made a similar comments. you can tell by the way the republicans are doing everything in their power. karl rove up on a television against whher.

why do we think that might be? oh yeah, because they think they can't beat her. you went through 2008, that sinking feeling of running a very qualified candidate, running a good campaign, but if seeing herself matched against -- but seeing yourself matched against a movement. a lot of independent young voters, the way they are supporting sanders now. are you getting deja vu that the same thing could be happening over again? guest: i think all of us have ptsd on the clinton site in 2008. we have both the best of those efforts. ma betweenbeenn no dra the national operation and the iowa operation. he is brilliant and humble, and that is a effective accommodation in iowa. others here on the ground.

we have young people by the hundreds now, most of whom have been here since april, and they know they are going to caucus by name. mark: is that the truth, do they have a strong operation here? guest: it's the truth, it is not a paper tiger. some of these people are good friends of mine and have been insiders for a long time. this is not an inside out campaign. movement.bottom-up it is important to make the distinction that this is deja vu. and it resonates in the sense that -- i'm going to make a controversial statement here. mark: please do. guest: i don't care about bernie sanders in the sense that he is bernie sanders. he is the face of a movement. he is our face of our issues. until we go forward and to

support him in those endeavors -- i would never at the caucuses, talking to obama supporters, where are you going to be in june, in october and november? when the issues come and we have to address and support these to get health care reform, to get labor reform, and other things that we find meaningful to our lives, they were not there. subsequently, this president was not able to accomplish his formal agenda. now we have a movement with a different face. saying essentially, but consistently, without checking the weather, knowing that he has a position and has voted on these issues repeatedly. he did not need any clarification on how bad trade is. mark: less than 30 seconds, toso

button it up. guest: it sis right face matters. hillary clinton has been a fighter and cut out her strip in the town halls. you could see that last night. michael dukakis used to say, there are two things you have to be to be a great president, one is president. she is the person that can win and fight. john, thank you both. we will be right back with our colleagues right after this. ♪

john: we are joined by 3 members of our bloomberg politics team. welcome to iowa. i wanted to go around this group. what is the most important story to you? guest: all you care about is the force race? there is more in stake in the iowa caucuses since 1998. it counts more this time on both sides. guest: the real strength of trump and sanders'grounded game, and whether there is a

mismatch between them and polli ng come monday. guest: i think the clinton and confident about their numbers. nobody knows the denominator in this election. center -- sanders' motivation effort and whatever trump has to bring new caucus-goers. mark: does it matter who is third in the caucus? guest: it matters if there is a strong third. if marco rubio finishes a strong third, inconceivably gives him up momentum. mark: what is a strong third? guest: he's in it the mid- teens, not too far behind the second-place person. it puts him in a stronger position conceivably in new hampshire, wendy -- where you can then get rid of the establishment candidates. it conceivably could translate.

guest: i don't think there is a strong third that could help them that much. if we see trump in the high 20's or low 30's, how much momentum that will lose for rubio, just not sure it's going to play out the way they think in new hampshire. guest: i think the tru mp-cruz dynamic is going to drive media in the coming weeks. it's not just who finishes third, but it's you inserts them into the debates. rubio seemed timid about that. john: we had an argument about whether there is a world in which bernie sanders now, can fall short and finish second. is that still ok, or does sanders now needed to win? al: i think he needs to win to have a sliver of a chance to be the nominee, which i don't think he has. he's not going to go away. he's going to raise a lot of

money. he has more states than people realize that he can do well in. it is important for hillary to beat him here, because it becomes a contest of how long he stays. it will not ultimately affect is. guest: i disagree about the sliver of a chance. i think it is higher than a sliver. because of the economic inequality debate, which has hillaryd this campaign, has been consistently missing and sanders has been hitting the message. he is hitting every note and that message is resonating much more than she is. that could become a greater cap flow. john: senators finishes 8 votes short. can he tie? guest: he has the burden of plausibility. back to 2000, when bradley lost in iowa.

there was an opportunity for independence to vote. there seem to be a loss of energy around the bradley campaign. it's hard to put a number on it. it seems far more action to vote on mccain on the independent side. al: the battle in new hampshire is going to be for independents. john kasich's people are pulling hard for hillary. they fear that if bernie wins-- mark: if you were analyzing the trump campaign today, what is a mistake that campaign has made? megyn kelly is a mistake even today. i don't think that is a winner for him once we begun -- we move beyond this show move. it calls attention to the negatives that could hurt him as more and more people take a closer look. mark: is anybody seeing a strategic mistake?

guest: seeming so receptive to establishment support of late. both appearing with incumbent senator is, incredibly successful operators at events, and talking up that the establishment is coming to him as a virtue. it seems to me, a fumbling. al: i think donald trump is making mistake after another, but it has not heard him one iota. is immune right now. john: you know what trump would say about that? what you think would be the biggest surprise? what could possibly happen that would be the big surprise of the night? al: about donald trump -- that donald trump does not deliver.

that would be a surprise. he he finishes a point or two be hind. people will say, there is something less there than we thought. guest: for me, a big clinton victory. if she is far more organized than a disciplined. someone on there be monday night that is not one of the big four we are talking about? guest: jeb, if you can get anywhere above the doldrums and get himself plausible deny ability to stick around it longer. -- around a bit longer. [laughter] john: thank you all. my 3 favorite corinthians right here. we will be right back with who won the day. ♪

>> another day is over, who won it? >> i have no particular concrete thing. we think hillary clinton is feeling a bit more confident. because alhe day hunt is finally here. tomorrow, both party shares from iowa. we will be her in des moines all week. mark: we will see you tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

emily: i'm emily chang. you are watching bloomberg west. iran's president met with pope francis on day two of his trip to europe. he gave the pope a hug -- a rug

and asked for prayers. he is visiting italy and france this week. el salvador is urging women not to have children for two years epidemic. the zika it is linked to brain damage it infants. one million brazilians have been infected and 4000 infants have been infected. the abortion opponents claim the videos show them selling feel tissue for profits. they are accused of tampering with document records which is a felony. the knotted nations the lead tainted water crisis in flint looking at the human rights aspect of the disaster. it is not the firsme