can the fed stay the hour course? four hike the world's biggest company forecast its first sale drop since 2003. lender's profit falls. we'll hear exclusively from the bank's chair, this lady. nelcome to "the pulse" live i

london. francine is not here. she's been talking to santander. first, let's get you up to speed. nejra: china's central bank is said to have asked some chinese banks in hong kong to suspend offshore yuan lending. according to people with knowledge of the matter, the pboc also asked some chinese banks and companies to collect information about shortselling orders in the offshore yuan market. tim cook admits he sees -- in china, especially in hong kong after forecasting apple's first quarterly sales declined since 2003. even with the lunar new year shopping season, china may no longer offset the broader slow down. takenbank of scotland has 3.6 billion pounds of additional charges to cover past misconduct. th quarter charge

includes a 1.5 billion pound provision in relation to u.s. mortgage-backed securities. that is your bloomberg first word news. guy: let's check in on the markets. relatively quiet in some ways. this is the story. ippingai comp round tr down half a percent. it was down 2%. a big first and the last half hour of buying. brent still trading north of 30 but down 2%. 1.0868.lar trading at all morning talking about this. you would expect this to behind. it should be north of 1% but the market is not signaling if the fed is going to go four times. we are trading at .85. european equity markets are fairly flat now. let's talk about the bank. let's talk about one bank in

particular. banco santander size profits almost write down in -- wiped out in q4. despite volatile markets, the chairman tells us she is optimistic about the real economy. >> there is a bit of a disconnect between the financial and what they call the real economy. even though i do not like to separate, i think the bank as a very real thing. we are the real economy. but financial markets, the world is complex. there are a lot of issues taking place in the middle east. china transformation and politics. uncertainty, more complexity. i think you are going to get more volatility. we have seen that the last few weeks, right? but if you look at underlying numbers, again, our spanish business, 18% up. our consumer lending, we are the number one consumer lender in europe. people forget that 87% of

santander risk is in europe and north america. and europe is doing really well. portuguese economy is improving. our bank in portugal is making 60% more than last year. our consumer finance business 18% more than last year. north america, not doing so well for us on the bank side, but on the consumer lending side also doing well. i think europe and the americas, relative -- the slower growth environment, vis a vis asia. so, it is going to be hard. it is going to be more challenging but i think we can do what. francine: the next 12 months will be more of a challenge than the previous 12 months? next 12 months the world is going to grow at a slower rate. there are also taxes. we have said there is an extra 100 million pounds in texas in the u.k. brazil.higher taxes in

we will have to pay for hundreds of millions of regulatory projects next year. the same as this year, you've seen a very -- our numbers show topline growth with before -- good performance and cost. our cost of credit is going down to 1.24. 40 basis points. our net profit -- we're going to have higher taxes. next is going to be a challenge on costs because we have to invest in a lot of projects. so, the guidance we gave in september we maintain. and the guidance we gave his next year we will be growing our earnings-per-share but not at a very high rate. that is what we said and that is what we raise the rate. we also said that by 2018 we would grow in double-digit eps. guy: let's introduce our guest. co-portfolio manager at hermes

investment management. we are talking about the real economy. the macro story is what happens with the fed. any surprises that you think are going to come through today? > >> no, we very much doubt it. we have seen financial market volatility's and stocks -- and in the third quarter of last year. as far as they are concerned, things in the real economy in the u.s. are looking good still, even if the rate of growth is slide. and i think the key for them will be patients now. i think we could see them reintroduce this word patients into their forecast. so i think today it will very much be about semantics and what they say and looking for those keywords that come about versus less statement. guy: do think they have to reflect the turbulence we have seen over the last few weeks. an incredible arises since the december meeting. tim: they have to have knowledge of. it will be a big shock if they do not acknowledge what is going on in the world. with them, it is always been very much about bringing it back

to employment in the u.s. and what is going on for their specific mandate. they will he do now it it but they will try to reinforce that they are not being driven by. guy: the market at the french and of the u.s. curve .85 is what we have got at the moment. endhe market at the front of the u.s. curve. that number should be way higher than what? tim: when was the last time anyone believe the fed dots? guy: at 1.2 big knowledge they are wrong? they what point do acknowledge they are wrong? in: the next dots come out march. until then, there will be a lot of uncertainty and expectations swinging between dovish and slightly more hawkish, etc. as you see these words come in and out of statements. if you're watching what the fed is saying on the short term, for now it is like to be a bit choppy. expectations are going to swing

around ta bit. guy: the u.k. in the u.s. have similar economic issues right now but carney is going, i am not raising rates right now . tim: if you look at what is happening in the u.k., i think partly in terms of the housing brexit,nd in terms of carney wants to throw cold water on any talk of a rate hike. sterling has been crisp, indeed. markets have shifted expectations for the bound and for the u.k. economy quickly. theink with regards to u.s., it is harder for them because their mandate is primarily on unemployment. that has held strong the last trend in december. u.k. has fgot more risks. the bank of england sees more geopolitical risk. they want to hold tight. of course, every will talk about brexit in the u.k. and all of

the uncertainty will focus on that and a rate rise isherwood not help that. -- this year will that help that. guy: i'm going to take your temperature. turbulence since the start of the year -- opportunity, threat? tim: i think it depends what you are trying to do. if you are long-term investor, it is an opportunity. they're always going to be pockets of growth in market but when you have panics like this, all acids could pull down. some rightly so. -- all assets get pulled down here at some rightly so. if this volatility continues and we do continue to see markets rout, at some point there are going to be great opportunities to jump in. some equity stories which are based on long-term fundamental growth stories and are completely mispriced. guy: you have great names. we will talk about those later in the show. going to stay with us. china takes a bite out of apple. has the world's biggest company

had a growth ceiling? a cracked screen. shareholdersshell are voting on a proposed $70 billion takeover of bg. does the acquisition still make sense and a world of 30 bucks a barrel? will speak to the head of natural resources and commodities. french cards on the shopping list. we will speak to our guest in the studio and the iranian president. he travels from rome to paris today where he says he may seek ugeot andh pe renault. ♪

guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." nejra: thanks, guy. newsa shares have risen on it is planning to buy out the remainder of its -- unit. it is considering several possibilities, including making it a wholly-owned subsidiary. that news came as toyota announced global sales topped $10 million last year, meaning it would change his title -- a retains its title as the world 's top selling carmaker. ritain's largest lender says the fourth-quarter charge includes a 1.5 billion pounds --

to u.s. mortgage backed securities. novartis posted fourth-quarter earnings that missed estimates. sales continue to plummet. the strength of the u.s. dollar eroded the value of global revenues. guy: thank you very much, indeed. u.s. earnings are be hit by slow global growth and foreign-exchange moves. tim cook highlighted this after the world's biggest company reported earnings last night. ok. we don't have the tim cook sound. we will find it later. here to break down the numbers, we found her, caroline hyde. the concerns are pretty clear. they're forecasting a revenue slow down. this is a cracked screen any iphone started carolinestory. caroline: nice pun. we have a market braced for the

slow down. for nextates were quarter we would see a 4% slowdown in sales. they're actually going to be as bad as 14% slowdown. it implies we could see iphone units sold dropping by 20% in this current quarter. that is according to mark horton. he did the nice numbers for me. this is a big decline, and it speaks of saturation. end ofe luxury smartphone market. slowdownlso seeing a in china. that is another key concern for them. remember, china is their second biggest individual market. theire tim cook saying softness in china, particularly in hong kong. they see a "very different economic environment." the slowdown was marked for this festive period. when you joined to the numbers, china grew just 14%, guy. compare that to the previous

quarter where china sales were up 99%. there are the key two challenges. iphone still make up 68% of revenue for apple. this is a conceit -- they can product.et another the watch is not selling as they envisioned. they are trying to turn themselves into a services company with music and pay. that is not enough. when you have macro economic woes. macro challenges were measured 12 times on the analysts call. lay the blameg to on the macro economy and try to avoid pinpointing that it is a slowdown in smartphones. guy: thank you very much. caroline hyde. like apple, what should you be putting in your portfolio right now. the iranian leader, he's investing in french car companies. do you think we should be as well? tim: one of the ones we

really like is renault. renault's that in the headlines because it has a hiccup in terms of getting the spotlight on it for the emissions issues we have seen hit vw. i think with renault it is an opportunity now to buy into the shares of the great valuation. what you actually have is, for the time being, a car company that is still largely driven by european markets. abouttory for us is more cost-cutting, more about optimiszinng their costs. they had a two decade aligns with nissan. but we have seen nothing much come out of that on the purchasing side. now they are starting to produce cars on the same platform, you're going to start see that coming to the numbers. concern about european carmakers is do they have the scales make a big leap forward in technology? you are going to have to invest

money to compete with apple. what happens next when you need to make the shift in drivetrain from being internal combustion to the electric motor? tim: you have seen a lot of investment go into alternative drivetrains. renault have been at the forefront of that in terms of the electorate car. in terms of technology inside the car, renault would be one of him that would be happy to outsource that. guy: they pull it all together. tim: they are mass-market. they are not trying to be high-end like bmw or mercedes. as far as they concerned, they will outsource things. it is not just in car entertainment. with regards to other parts in possibly havere to do you having to invest. having to improve your cars to say ahead of the market. as far as they're concerned, they will continue to focus on

the drivetrain which is where they think they can add more value. everything else i think will be very much the outsourcing story. guy: gold prices ahead a solid start in 2016. but investing in a miner now? tim: that is part of the reason why i mentioned them. whenever you mentioned gold or a miner, i think it does divide opinions. we're not trying to make a mess of call on the direction of gold. gold isink that coming to the end of a down cycle. as far as miners goes ren gold is very unique. it has a balance sheet with net cash on there. miners who have much higher production costs, the risk of seeing these impairments that hit so many miners. out about

impaired assets. it is not such a risk for these guys. unless gold continues to tumble. guy: nice to see you. thank you very much, indeed. the market spillover into the real economy. we will talk to ana botin. in exclusive conversation with francine lacqua. ♪

guy: you are watching "the pulse ." banco santander size fourth-quarter profit on was wiped out after revisions that included 600 million years to cover u.k. loan protection claims. francine lacqua asked the chair ana botin about the risks of a brexit. ana: we are part of the u.k. economy. we continue to invest. we are investing a lot and digital. our currentd of account openings are online. mobile banking up. bankingillion mobile users. an attractive

market. i think europe is stronger with the u.k. and i think u.k. is part of a reformed europe is also stronger. we have millions of sme customers throughout the u.k. i think these customers continue to create more jobs of we are in europe if the u.k. in europe. i also think europe has to be more competitive and we welcome that the u.k. helps us be more competitive. that is what i believe. but having said this, ultimately for the british people to decide. francine: there is also rumored you're buying some rbs branches. ana: i cannot comment specifically on that. we are focused on organic growth. as you have seen this year, we bought portugal but that no effect this year. we can deliver a very good shareholders,r growing topline, generating capital and paying dividends. but having said this, we will look at the organic, sorry, in organic opportunities. we looked at brazil in 2015.

we looked at portugal. but we are going to be very disciplined. we did not do those transactions. if we analyze, and we could analyze some other options, we will always be very disciplined. francine: would it be in europe or elsewhere? there was a rumor in davos about santander looking at monti de pasci. ana: we are in nine markets plus your. italy is not one of them. we do corporate business but that is not one of our 10 markets. having critical market -- critical mass is very important. in most markets we are at 10%. spain and portugal we are at 14%. so, it's critical for us to have size to compete in this environment. guy: ana botin speaking to francine lacqua. more to come. european markets little changed on the equity front but a u.s. basfr gauge, iron ore and

has been making moves. meeting. two day fed spot index has risen by one point 5%. it's portions may rest on the wording of tonight statement. there is the dollar spot index. oreworld bank says iron will be the worst performing metal this year, down by 25%. it says prices will average $42 a metric ton, a drop of 25%. earningsly, basf failing to meet expectations. shares sinking as much as 5% because of the plunging oil price hurting its wind to shore unit. the big faller on the dax. guy: thank you very much. up next, fuel for thought? we will discuss shell's

proposed takeover of bg. we will talk about oil prices and how they could affect -- firtch up next on that story. ♪

welcome back. you're watching "the pulse" live in london had let's get you everything you know to know. anks china central bank is said to have asked some chinese banks in hong kong to defend offshore lending and tighten liquidity. also asked some chinese banks and companies to collect information about shortselling orders in the offshore yuan market from the start of the appeared tim cook -- has said

their sales are soft and china. yearwith the lunar new shopping season, china may no longer offset the broader slowdown in the global smartphone market. royal bank of scotland has taken 3.6 billion pounds of additional charges to cover past misconduct. the fourth-quarter charge includes a 1.5 billion pound provision in relation to u.s. mortgage backed securities. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world from the bloomberg first word --. desk. guy: shell is on the brink of completing it against acquisition. ryan chilcote spoke to chris -- which advises many of the company's biggest investors. bloomberg.com >> exactly what you would want a

good management team to do which is making an opportunistic acquisition. the key things about this for shareholders are that you're substantially lowering your production cost of oil and replenishing reserves and you get asked us to natural gas assets in australia. you will ensure that dividend coverage is solved -- you solve an awful lot of problems and appointed a time where it is relatively cheap to do it. ultimately, the value of this deal is delivered over decades. so the spot price of oil today or next week or even towards the end of this year may not be the most relevant benchmark for it valueilding shareholder over decades when you adjust the business equation like this is really the reason we are supporting it. ryan: is this deal representative of what we are going to see later in 2016, or should we expect different kinds of deals in terms of m&a? chris: we are seeing a number of deals that smaller companies. this one is gargantuan.

i are seeing changes -- expect we will see more of that. you will see more if it were companies are really becoming distressed. a $30 a barrel, shell is going to outlast a lot of competitors. the thing we have not seen so far, and i do not know if we will see more of this, the other big majors making large acquisitions. there have been some attempts. but you don't see a flurry of them. the worst time to sell your company is when oil has had its trough. guy: ryan joins us next. iss advises 35 of the biggest shareholders in shell. soundst looks like -- it like enough of them will to get that majority vote that shell needs. iss is very influential. they paid attention to what chris cernich had to say. let's face it, a lot of big investors in shell onrae on --

are on the other side of the deal and the sense they also owns shares in bg. there is a big premium for shareholders. look at vanguard and blackrock and legal in general. they all have shares in both. while they might not think it is that -- is a fantastic deal for shell, they do think it is a good deal for bg. many appear to be willing to look beyond today's oil price and agree with shell that this is a transformative deal for the company. and are willing to give the ceo the benefit of the doubt to let him prove it to them. guy: the issue with all of this is that, while they hold shares in both stocks, they had been walking away from shell. that -- ryan: if you think about it, a third of the people have left the room. shell's share price has fallen by 1/3.

you look at their peers, they have not done nearly that poorly. bp is down 20% since shell announced the deal. exxon is down a mere 10%. not too bad when you consider what has happened to the oil price since april last year. so, the proof is in the pudding. a lot of people like the idea this is going to help them protect their progressive dividend policy. but they want to see that share price go up. they are hoping the oil price will go up. they want to see the synergies in the cost-cutting and cost isings that shell promising. when they announced the deal, they said this was going to save them $2 billion a year. there will love the a single investor in the room that would not be disappointed if they were to exceed those expectations. guy: thank you very much, indeed. shell also one of the majors in the spotlight when it comes to ratings. joining us now is the head of natural resources at fitch ratings. nice to see you.

let's speak about shell. does this deal makes sense from a ratings point of view? >> it depends on the time scale. so, in the short run, we quite like it. the way they are doing it, finding mostly with equity, is a real positive but there is a $20 billion cash price tag. that adds more stress to a stressed leverage profile. and it will take a long time to get back to the current metrics. we have shell at aa. that is suggesting it will probably end up going down if the deal completes. but probably only by a notch. so, that is not the end of the world for any company. aa minus. guy: what numbers are you plugging and for expected oil and gas prices? >> we have 45 at the moment, which -- brent. wti. guy: they are pretty much the same now. >> people are raising eyebrows. you just did.

we looka at the fundamentals, no one is -- the market is going to tighten later in the year. you can make arguments to bring prices to 65 or 55 or 45 but you get a very seasonal increase in demand around the middle of the year. billionl be 1 plus barrels. the current surplus is 1.5 so, which ever way you look at it, it will be a lot tighter. iran. there are a lot of unknowns there. guy: what is the beater on that number? you raise or lower it by a buck, what is the ripple effect into the credit story? >> we're talking about 10 to 27 bucks.- or 20's of if we go to 30 for the year, we are at the stage where it becomes difficult for smaller operators to operate.

being on a desert island and you're on slow rations and the food just ran out. things start to become very difficult to find funds to repair. your not investing capex anymore. that is going to have an impact on supply. at current levels, the supply response which typically requires you to stop investing in new products, it's going to happen because you're not going the to be able to maintain current projects. guy: that is one of the reasons why we could see prices go higher. there's a nice line from a report you put out on the 25th. seven large ema oil companies -- with levels above fitch considered appropriate, give us a sense of what the bigger picture looks like around europe. >> the bigger picture is oil has fallen. oil falls.

we are not panicking. if we were to see $30 for a couple years that would seriously damage even the big companies potentially. although there would have to be some sort of countervailing cost cuts, which means they will probably still find a way through it. it's difficult to see what they do exactly at $30 but you can expect a lot more cuts. capex would be very low. at that level, dividends must he in question. 45, we can see a place where if overcreases by 5, 10 bucks the next couple years, you can start to see them coping. potentially could see the dividend being kept, if they choose to be stringent on capex. and it's not a panic situation. guy: have you been surprised that the sell off in high-yield energy and europe has mirrored what has happened in the united states? are they comparable. >> they are not in some ways but

they are in others. the question is about liquidity. the smaller players have a limited number of projects. a greate, -- discovery at the time. they are using proceeds from the jubilee field to find a second irrelevant called 10 development. it is a one-shot plan. if you do not have the proceeds from the first of element to fund the second, you suddenly have to take a lot more borrowing out. and that, it's a sort of fundamental change that can hit credit profiles. 65 last year, so they are protected. they always have masses of liquidity. not goingplayers are to be so lucky. in effect at the lower end of the spectrum, it is all about liquidity. guy: the two have sold off most lockstep. some people, credit analysts, have been surprised that it's

happened in a correlated fashion. they would expect the stocks to unwind. the would see the european story benefiting more. if you look at accredited quality across the european space, how do they compare and contrast more broadly? for ahigh yield in europe start, you do not have nearly as many players. you have hundreds of them and the u.s. -- in the u.s. there are a lot of smaller players. if you get into details, it is a different story. the u.s. players are often a lot more leveraged. at current oil prices, that leverage has gone up for european players. investors are buying them. same oil price hitting them. they are both in a sticky spot. guy: so much i could talk to about. thank you very much for your time this morning. the head of natural resource and commodities of emea at fitch. up next, he has met the pope.

now he is heading to france. a preview of discussions that could take place during the iran ian president's two-day visit. back here on "the pulse" in a mo ment. ♪

guy: welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." rouhani's european trip

continues today. the iranian president is heading to france. good morning. here, spendinge money. the europeans are delighted. and it is the europeans that seem to have first favor advantage. >> natural, right? they're the ones i had a head start. they are 20% of iran's trade w europe prior to the onset of severe forms of sanctions in 2011. europe's tradef bilateral was with iran at that time. this is not collapsed to 2% of europe's trade. it will be resumed quickly, particularly with contracts to companies that have had a head start. guy: so, kind of, compare and contrast the business relationship. plenty of states --

viewers in the united states. plenty watching in europe. companies.o's of they're looking at the spread between u.s. companies and european companies. how big is that spread? >> it is quite large. u.s. companies are reticent about touching iran with a 10 f oot pole, because every great remaining sanctions. and obviously other stations that are stillon, related to iran. there is also the risk of the snapback provision. u.s. companies will remain cautious for a while while european companies will head there first. i think with time, u.s. companies can make up the gap. airplanes, this sort of stuff -- they will make headlines. is that where the real money is going to be made? >> transport and logistics. the order of 100 planes. oil and gas, which needs massive upgrading in iran.

but also other sectors, consumer back sectors. iran is a huge and diversified consumer market. what i would caution against is the figure of 50 billion in foreign direct investment. it is an impressive figure. more than five times the amount that saudi arabia was receiving at the peak from international investors. but the figure is one thing and iran's capacity at the moment is another thing. and so, we have yet to see how much iran can absorb in the first few years. guy: one of the wrinkles -- there are plenty of wrinkles in this region -- and we're watching very carefully the situation in syria. progress, what is the dividend off that? >> this is where the rubber hits the road. one of the assumptions made by particularly the west was that

doing a deal with iran would produce some peace dividends regionally that would make it easier to get iran to cooperate on some of the open conflicts in the region. syria and iraq. the question now is how easy is it going to be to do a deal on a playing field that is not level anymore? normally a third party can strike an agreement between two other parties in both our weekend. but over the last couple of months, the intervention has tipped the scales in favor of the syrian regime. hence, the back-and-forth over who gets to attend these talks in geneva. and hence, the conditions that are being placed by those whoa are backing the syrian regime and the reticence of some of the opposition members in syria to join talks.

the capture of the town in southern syria two days ago further rigs the scales in favor of the government. there is a lot of momentum behind the initiative that was started in november. three weeks of talks. this came from the momentum on the back of the iran deal. the question is how does one struck a deal between two parties that are no longer equally weakened? guy: you have to change that as well. to see you again. nice to get your analysis. you very much for joining us. up next, the fed first rates meeting comes at 7:00 p.m. london time. as bets on negative rates by the end of 2017 jupm in the market. they are above 10% now. what is going to happen with the fed rate path.

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ana: i think europe and the americas -- the slower growth environment. guy: santander chair ana botin speaking to francine lacqua in a bloomberg is closer. more of that stilted come. -- still to come.

while officials are expected to continue raising rates this year, traders don't expect a second hike. mike mckee joins us from new york. tell us what the spread is between what the fed thinks. mike: there is a widespread between some people in the markets and the fed. right now, the market probabilities price in just one rate increase this year. doing nothing today will be difficult for janet yellen and her colleagues. they want to make knowledge that yes, they know there has been market volatility but they don't ate increases off the table for march. we are two months away from that fed decision. and when we pause to december because of august volatility, they found out that all that volatility ended up meaning nothing to the economy. so, watch their statement today that say,ild changes yes, we see there is volatility. we will be watching it, but it's steady as she goes as far as our

policy is concerned. guy: financial markets not necessarily reflective of the real economy? what is the u.s. economy saying about the rate hike cycle? mike: the u.s. economy looks to have slowed and that could push back rate increases if we do not see progress on inflation. we have a whole lot of data coming out in the few weeks that said officials would like to see before they take anything off the table for march, including the next jobs report. if copies are still hiring, the fed is going to feel that higher inflation is going to be a possibility -- if companies are still hiring. guy: a pleasure. looking forward to your coverage later on. bloomberg will be bringing you full coverage from that statement, fed reaction, everything else. the whole team over there on tenterhooks waiting to see what is going to happen. 2:00 p.m. new york time, 7:00 p.m. london time. 3:00 a.m. hong kong time. that is when we get the statement. what will the first paragraph

say? remember, you have got to change -- new members coming in on the voting site. european markets, let's show you what has been going on. europe falling. global stocks unchanged. we are waiting for the fed statement. we are twiddling our thumbs until then. dollar rebounded from the today loss. this is the dollar spot index. tracks the dollar against 10 of its peers. fed last raised rates on december 16 for the first time in a decade, this index has risen by 1.5%. it touched a record high on friday. the big question is how dovish will the fed be? what impact will to have on the dollar. fed funds futures the probability of a march hike now at 25%. basf earnings were the big earnings of the day. the big decline are on the dax, the world's biggest chemical maker reported a bigger than expected drop in profit. the plunging oil price heard it

wind to shore unit. this energy business provides a hedge for its chemical operations. it is a company that is shifting its focus further into up stream in oil and gas production. quickly, the world bank says iron ore will be the worst-performing metal the sure. it has already sunk last year -- it will be the worst-performing metal this year. this year average $42. this is the 62% content delivered to king dow. roughly around $41 which is close to the record low set only recently. guy: thank you very much. stay with bloomberg. plenty coming up -- the federal reserve releases its rate decision statement at 7:00 p.m. u.k. cap -- u.k. time. ebayook one of the key -- out with numbers. watch those throughout the day. we have got plenty of coverage of the key events. going to be a busy trading day.

we are waiting and watching to see what the fed does. but the corporate earnings season as well in full flow. that is it for "the pulse." "surveillance" is up next. ♪

francine: four hikes -- we get the first statement of 2015, setting the tone for the rates ahead. apple forecasts its first sales drop since 2003. and a miss and santander. botin tells me exclusively they will not raise capital. good morning, this is "surveillance." tom, it'excitings -- we hear -- it's exciting. we hear more about the fed but markets don't look good.