mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. and with all due respect to all the other candidates here in iowa, today, yet again, it is all about the donald. happy donald trump did what day, sports fans. iowa caucus mission control, the downtown des moines marriott. the world is still in a frothy lather after donald trump's announcement yesterday that he does not intend to take part in the foxnews debate here tomorrow. donald makes his decision from a

position of strength, according to a brand new online poll with our partners at purple strategies. he leaves the field with 34%, trailed by marco rubio at 14% and ted cruz at 12%. one bit of not so good news -- and that is a-- lot of voters -- say they could still change their mind. you can find the full results at bloomb bloombergpolitics.com. rush limbaugh said "in this business, when the media calls, you answers, and when the immediate wants you, you go." trump is so far outside this game, the rules. he's never been a player. from an altogether different perspective, even josh earnest, the white house press secretary,

couldn't resist weighing in from the briefing room. >> the president himself noted that he was not a big fan of participating in presidential debates, but he never backed out of the debate two days before it was scheduled to be held. i think that demonstrates his own commitment to the process and making good on one's commitments. and: so you have limbaugh ernest. arnest. more importantly, his rivals -- listen to chris christie, who have this to say on boston herald radio today. >> listen, i think that donald trump is making a big mistake. i think anytime you get a podium and microphone with 20 million people watching you should take it. he's not going to do that. i'm glad he's not coming from my perspective, more time for the rest of us on the stage. john: marco rubio, rand paul also had things to say, chiming

in by criticizing the move. mark, 24 hours since trump dropped this bombshell. how do you think the decision is looking the next day? mark: my initial impulse was that it was good for him. he doesn't need the debate, so it will be about beating up ted cruz. trump does best, like most, when he is acting from his heart and got, and he was insulted by fox news. since then, i was talking to one of the smartest people i know who covers politics and said this could be a big mistake, but i am not convinced. under might mind other other circumstances. john: as you know, my initial reaction was that there are risks, and i still think there are risks. not because the people of iowa will be insulted, because i don't think the actual people care as much as we do. but you're basically saying you will not use this to expand any support.

that is counteracted by the fact that every other network will cover this event. i think by and large the same thing you think -- one day later, what has not happened is the world has not come crashing down. mark: no one has come after him -- john: he was praised for being he'sng, and it is looking bigger than foxnews. mark: his supporters like him when he is big. and there have been plenty of debates. i don't think people will say you didn't debate enough. all right. has been feuding with megyn kelly since last summer, but what pushed them over the edge last night was a very unusual statement that foxnews put out from its press shop yesterday. after trump went on twitter for a poll of his followers asking if you should skip it, fox issued a remarkably snarky retort that he would look to his followers for foreign-policy

advice. he's going on with bill o'reilly didght, but all day foxnews not cover the controversy nearly as much as we watched it. fox would love to have trump at the debate, obviously. how much blame to they deserve for losing him? john: pretty much all of it. i like to occasionally annoy my liberal friends and try to maintain the idea that fox news is a news organization, even though they have a clear ideological slant. this is something no news organization would do. mark: or should do. it's a ridiculous thing to have done. i can't imagine what got into someone's mind to think this was an appropriate thing to do to any of the participants of the debate, level of the front runner. john: and they are keeping at it. megyn kelly says, quote, "it would probably be a bad decision to not show up at the fox debate." she should not be commenting on the moderator on the political strategy. fox says they were threatened by

donald trump. if you're a news organization, you don't get involved in fighting -- mark: and you don't mock the people you cover. that's what it was. it was funny, maybe, opinions will vary, but openly mocking the people you cover is not what the business should be in, especially if you are hosting a debate which is supposed to be a neutral platform. john: fox should not let any candidates pick who the moderators are. but they've put themselves in a position where if they want trump, they will have to give something up. they will not remove megyn kelly, nor should they, but if they want him,. mark they will have to grovel. mark: trumps behavior with megyn kelly was inexcusable. he was wrong, he should have been criticized. he was out of bounds in that area when he said those things. none of that have to do with

this instance, with fox tweaking him in a way they should not behave. john: they thought they had the last word and now it has been downgraded. mark: the republican party said today that there will not be an empty chair tomorrow. there was some discussion about cruz cameafter ted out and challenged trump to a one-on-one debate, the donald tweeted, quote, "can we do it in canada?" cheeky. he speculated that there is a chance he could change his mind. you've been hinting at that, it would discombobulated his rivals. what do you think at this moment in which this debate debacle could play out? john: i think ted cruz comes into this having cured his mind

up to say this is a confrontation and now he has to think about who will come after him. is going to come after him , and i think none of them know of the dynamic is. i do believe that trump has the power and influence -- fox's there won't be an empty p odium, that they will have one to wheel out. john: how much does this decision impact the readings of the debate? you don't know. we assume viewers will be other channels to check out the alternative event. that's one question. how small will the audience be? the second thing i think is clear that the main impact is on ted cruz. the two front runners could have assumed they would get a bunch of attacks, and now everyone will be focused on cruz. last night in his hotel, after we got back from the trump

event, the whole cruz contingent rolled in and there was no doubt that they were discombobulated. they were talking about throwing the debate prep book out, what to do now. mark: and it is also the target of the moderators. john: if this was part of trump's game to message ted cruz , which obviously was, he succeeded. mark: coming up next, our breakfast with ben carson, and bernie sanders pays a visit to casablanca. we will be back. ♪

mark: bernie sanders did something unusual -- he took a break from campaigning in the run-up to the caucuses to go to washington and have a private meeting with president obama at the white house. it comes a day after he drew an estimated 20,000 people to public campaign stops in minnesota yesterday. there was no reprieve, though, even with him out of the state, between team sanders and team clinton. a story quoted a sanders advisor, saying that the campaign may start running negative ads against clinton, who was already trying to raise money off". talked with lester holt about his chances in iowa. >> what is your bar for success in iowa? >> winning. >> number one. >> yeah. we have worked very hard in iowa. she had a ground organization in place before we did. she has more money in the bank than we do. but in the last number of

months, we have put together an incredible volunteer effort. we have some 50,000 volunteers. and let me be clear -- caucus night in iowa, you will be able to tell very early, i think, who wins and who loses. if there's a large voter we will win.wil mark: sanders declined to participate in a last-minute, unsanctioned debate in new hampshire nbc was putting together. clinton said in an interview, after sanders declined, with chris matthews, something that will be on "hardball" tonight. >> what i said to my campaign is that i would look forward to another debate. i'm anxious if we can get something set up, to be able to be there. let's tried to make it happen.

>> with you let the chair of the democratic party to clear next week? >> i would like them to agree that they can debate from new hampshire next week. that is what i hope will happen. upk: clinton has a new ads here in iowa that are not quite negative, but certainly have some contrast. john, lots of back and forth between these two. who do you think is fearing it the most? john: sanders is faring best. he gets to be at the white house , which is the makeup of the favor. getting that invitation is very good. mark: why do you think the white house agreed, given the timing? john: i think they realize the president made a mistake going as far as he did with clinton.

you got a little over his skis, and they felt they owed it to the sender's campaign. had one of her best ads of the cycle, and as she said yesterday, the team is much less off-balance. i will say that the sanders white house is, to me, psychologically a big deal, and it puts the brakes on her big things she has been pushing, which is that she is the heir to obama. john: i'm sticking with my position on sanders winning the last 24 hours. she has looks good challenging him on this debate question, it's clear she needs this debate. mark: voters are obsessed with debates. john: i'm just saying, she looks like she is calling for more discussion. just as the democratic race in iowa is essentially a two-person contest -- sorry about that, o'malley -- the republican side

has also looks like a head-to-head matchup. donald trump versus ted cruz for the top spot on caucus night, with everyone else fighting for the bronze medal at best. at a bloomberg politics breakfast in this room, hosted by our esteemed colleague al hunt, some have things to say. >> i what you guys on monday night or tuesday morning to remember what i'm about to tell you right now. you're going to be surprised. [laughter] >> what is surprising? >> the surprise is that there will be people who will do a whole lot better than you think. >> yourself included? >> myself included. john: mark, ben carson -- is he right about the possibility that there will be a big surprise, not just in terms of who wins? are we all going to wake up and be like, wow? mark: i don't think it is

likely. we asked him, why would kohl's the undercounting your support? i have a lot of new people. trump has a lot of new people. of news a lot people. you call, you find new people. i do think, though, that cruz and trump are not conventional front runners. , i wouldn'the end be surprised if somebody ended higher, i 10 points think there is enough flux. in the establishment line, there is still a time of establishment vote unaccounted for. john: here's the biggest potential surprise. over rubio somehow balks ted cruz. i'm not saying it is likely, that that is the 1 -- in rubio

world, you are hearing people -- mark: the way that happens is -- the establishment candidate cs have nothing going on. legendary journalist and a great man, tom brokaw, joins us after this. ♪

john: o this monday nightn, iowa maintains its tradition of delivering surprises. it's launching a platform for some end of trapdoor for others. tonight it is the republican side, where senator bob dole, who was an impressive victory -- john: that is nbc's at potomac newsman, tom brokaw, circa 1988.

some things never change. mr. brokaw, it's great to have you. let me ask you -- as i look at that picture, that's a younger -- not of his early handsomer -- >> i was about to call security. john: how many caucuses have you recovered? >> 80 for the first one. i didn't get here for the famous jimmy carter caucus, but i came for everyone else. john: as you look back on all of most memorablee of the caucuses you covered? >> this will be, in my judgment. this is the wilder time i can remember. the other one was howard dean, all the way up to saturday night, looked like he would pull it off. and he finished third 24 hours later. it has always been a cautionary tale to me. a fewer number-

than people expect go to the caucus, but this time it is junkball. -- jump ball. i was looking at the running back for the dallas cowboys, and a sports writer said -- this is the ultimate game. "if it is, while they play it again next year?" [laughter] mark: this event gets criticized more than new hampshire because of the participation being lower. for people who don't have an appreciation -- forget the downside of iowa. tell people why you think this is a great part of how we think the president. >> i think we need to kick it off. people are ready to have the first contest. i've but doing a story of is iowa the right place to have the first contest. i've always been persuaded that, all things considered, it is a good place to start. john: explain what the upside is. why is it proper we let them have the first crack at it. >> they take it very seriously. it's middle america, and touches

on a lot of economic basis. a lot of people don't realize that insurance is an banking basis are almost as big as agriculture. des moines is a booming urban area, a perfect example of what's happening in small and large cities. a geographic prejudice because i grew up. here, and people take it seriously. if it were up to me, i would put iowa, south carolina, and new hampshire in the first week. that way you get a regional representation as well as a cultural representation. fly.s never going to they won't get it done. i did a paper at harvard about dividing the country up by time zones, and having a drawing every year. we have all the states of the mountain time zones, then central, then the eastern, then

the mountain time zone. that won't happen. of iowa isa lot driven by us. we make it important. they build it, we come. we don't just put on a next her coat of paint. the biggest news of the last 24 hours his donald trump announcing he will not do the foxnews debate before the caucuses. a a lot ofn discussion about that in the last 24 hours. some of it has gone to media criticism, and people are saying -- you know what, it is the news media that has empowered donald trump. they have followed down on the job, they allow this to occur. let's say you to the quest w --- wha say yout? >> i think we have had a part in that. people that come after me --

we put donald trump on and everyone listens. we're not doing it just for our own ratings, because there is a real interest in what he is about. what is more frightening to me is that he can seay things that are patently not true, 20,000 muslims in new jersey celebrating -- clearly not true. there's this constant examination. saw decision on his part, i him at lunch -- they were all jacked about the endorsements. this may have been a late decision, and i'm sure it was almost all of his part. in the middle of the night i woke up and thought, i wonder if he is playing starball. i wonder if he figures he has a place locked up and i want to take a chance on cruz. know he will dominate the news cycle until tomorrow night and if at the last minute he says -- you know what, i will show up.

he's going to create a lot of attention for himself when he walks on to that stage. you have met a lot of people all over the world. can you think of anybody who is liked trump? -- there was one wild cat -- mark: when did you first meet him? >> i met him on "the today show," when he took down that building. there were some beautiful bas-relief places on the facade, and he broke them up and send them away. mark: that got him on "the today show?" >> he didn't understand why everyone was upset. these were important parts of new york historical precedents, about how they built things. people stand --

around in front of that big gold "t." he has been a self promoter as long as i have known him. he did that essay on muslims -- "never cared for them." -- he once had me introduce the heavyweight fight. john: got a cut you off, sorry. coming up, the democratic and republican party heads, after this. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you.

we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. mark: we have added two chairs to the set because the chairs are here.

mcguire and the head of the iowa's republican party. thank you for joining us. it has been a big last several days for you. a lot of americans will be watching us for the first time. describe what caucus night will be like on the democratic side. >> it is going to be a great night. you have to go to your precinct and you can find your location. go with your friends and neighbors and talk about the three candidates. mark: they range in size from how small to how large? andy: sometimes a couple of people and sometimes hundreds of people. german kaufman, on the republican side -- chairman kaufman, on the republican side, the rules are little bit different.

>> each one of the candidates will have somebody designated to say some great things about them. a little conversation. mark: time-limited speeches? minutes.lly a few some conversation and then the vote. john: what have you done to prepare for eventualities of things that could go wrong? andy: we have done a lot of testing. 81 precincts -- 16 for both of us. a lot of moving parts and we just keep testing and testing and retesting. john: a lot of technology involved. your party had some difficulties for years ago. talk about how you have addressed those particular problems that riddled the

process. jeff: our microsoft app is going to be key to transparency. over 300 trainings, this is an all volunteer led caucus. have trained and re-trained and re-trained our folks there on the ground to make sure we get the results back to the microsoft app. i will not make a call in terms is too close.it back in 2012, it was one of the closest elections in american history. this is the most important reform we made, 48 hours, we will verify everything. standard for the so close that you would not make a call? last time, it was 34

votes. i will be talking to the people advising me very carefully. john: fewer than a thousand votes? jeff: i think so. the media is going to see exactly what andy and i see. in many ways, you can draw the same conclusions or different conclusions. mark: one of the criticisms of iowa is the turnout is not robust. what do you see out there that might lead to a higher turnout? jeff: there is a big difference between a caucus and primary. morean expect a little bit -- mark: has your party done anything? jeff: the candidates being here and everything surrounding what

the a caucuses -- what the caucuses are about. mark: have you seen a lot of republicans not involved in politics engaged by donald trump? nonstop my office, calls. how do i caucus? where is my caucus site? where do i go? more activity than a lot of the old-timers have seen ever. john: you guys have not had a caucus here for eight years. last time, it it was historic. what is your since of how it is going to go -- sense of how it will go? andy: it is about organization. we have three great

organizations and they are all over the state. you see people everywhere. you see fieldworkers for all of them. the organization is going to help our turnout. mark: what is the one thing you'd worry about most? andy: snow. we have a lot of moving parts that night and they are run by volunteers. they are very conscientious. if they cannot get to their places, it is a hard thing for them. upk: what time will you wake on caucus morning? jeff: i do not know if i will sleep. it depends on how long you folks leave us alone. mark: we will not let you sleep very long. kaufman,ire, jeff thank you. we go on the ground with two campaigns.

the marco rubio campaign and the ted cruz campaign. ♪

john: that was a marco rubio event last night. griffin hammon followed the teams of both marco rubio and ted cruz. here is what they look like. >> 151 hours. that is how long remains until the iowa caucuses. >> six days from right now, you should be arriving at your

caucus. but don't be late. >> the future and destiny of america could be decided monday night in iowa. it is either donald trump or ted cruz. things we of the considered going through with trump, they were always big events. they were never in the small coffee shops. ted cruz is more grassroots. i told him we would be praying for him. this is our first time to really be involved in the caucus. >> i will be here until all of your -- all of you are gone. ina lot of undecided voters iowa. we will get marco around the state this weekend.

caucusing for senator rubio on monday? >> i committed to marco rubio tonight. i liked what he had to say. >> we are continuing our bus to her -- bus tour across the state of iowa. caucuses are 147 hours from now. >> i thought it was pretty humbling for ted cruz to walk into the old church in a small down come in here dressed and kick it with us for about 20 minutes. >> monday, i plan to go out to the caucus and support ted cruz. >> i have been a huge ben carson lover. i have kind of been in favor of marco rubio.

>> we have over 12,000 volunteers in the state of iowa. we are making over 20,000 phone calls a day. >> you will see a get out the vote effort on the part of the ted cruz campaign. >> even if it is cold, even if it is snowing, we have to get out. thesease fill out one of commit to caucus cards. marco atn to support the caucus. >> it is a huge effort. it takes a lot of volunteers. as people decide they want to support marco, those numbers have ramped up a lot. >> we will not bombard you with e-mail. >> you will show up next monday night, 7:00, sit through an hour

meeting, right down marco rubio on that piece of paper -- write down marco rubio on that piece of paper. me $40 to $50st to go caucus. >> we will make time because it is important. >> it does not seem like a difficult thing. >> this is the time for the men and women of iowa to bring others. is everyone of you gets nine other people to show up at caucus, you will have voted 10 times. that is how we win. >> i think that is a tremendous idea. them withough to drag you. i am not sure that is realistic. >> commit today to come out next

monday night and caucus for us. >> when you caucus next monday night, we must choose a nominee for this party that wins. and i will win. >> god bless the great state of iowa. >> thank you very much. mark: our thanks to griffin hansen -- griffin hammon. ♪

mark: donald trump's alternative moreis little bit

concrete. thursday night at 9:00, the exact same time the debate begins, trump plans to do a benefit for veterans organizations. he will do that instead of the debate. we want to set up an important topic, money being spent on television ads. a lot is being spent here in iowa to influence the outcome. advertising across the board, nonstop. to get some interesting facts, here is ken goldstein to crunch the numbers. said, $77all is million will be spent on old media to influence the half a million iowans who will attend the caucus on february 1. $72 million of that will be on tv.

republicans have spent $50 million. $41 million coming from gop groups, not candidates. if the bush campaign had not spent any money at all. the two front runners had a late start. spent $3.6 million. ted cruz, $2.1 million. the sanders and clinton campaigns are about equal. tv are alln positive. republicans are getting a bit more chippy. overall, the big dollars are not backing negative ads. lots of dollars on old media in an age of new media. ken: our thanks to

goldstein. to talk about advertising and everything else, are bloomberg colleagues. -- our bloomberg colleagues. what is your sense of how the cr uz campaign feels? jobou guys have done a nice with the place. this used to be a bar called pit chers. everyone is under attack right now in the state of iowa. maybe he has picked a little bit too early. we thought he was doing so well three weeks ago. he seemed to have the situation under control. he has come under attack from since then. so much noise in the state. you have to wonder how much of it is getting through to voters.

a lot of competition for those ears right now. >> do you think there is a chance that cruz could slip out of second place? >> i don't think that is happening. the social conservatives are going to be there for cruz. john: what is going on with barack obama, hillary clinton, and bernie sanders? the event today, the choreography, the podcast. >> it could be this delicious conspiracy. president obama is trying to get bernie sanders to changes mind -- change his mind. it is just as likely that it is

less sexy. the president met with hillary at the white house and he needs fairness. it is either that or after the caucus. mark: hillary clinton's bowling alley event. owling went to a b alley today. invaders?man, space >> she just did her stump speech, shaking a lot of hands. there was no bowling to be had. i did not see a single bowling ball in the place. mark: what is the body language of her people?

>> i think they feel ok. they have been putting a lot of weight into the organization more than the candidate. she has been doing a solid job on the stump. she got most fired up today about inversion. perfect for bloomberg. we bailed out this auto company and then they decide they are not even going to pay u.s. taxes anymore. it was populist fire that seemed like what bernie sanders does. debate,ere is this think about all of these other republicans. what are they thinking now on the eu of the most important -- important of the most

republican debate? problemnk it creates a for cruz because everybody is going to be coming after him if trump is not on the stage. it is still possible that trump shows up. i do not think you can have all of your trump attack lines permanently put away in the briefcase. cruz will be the number one receiver of attacks if trump is not on the stage and rubio will try to make a mark. he has done well in all of the debates. rubio will try to shine and who knows, maybe nudge ted cruz out of second place. mark: do you get the sense of people -- that people are having fun out there? >> i think bernie sanders is

having fun. >> i think they are just trying to pack in as many events as possible. if there is something along the way, that is fine. field are having a lot of fun, volunteers. john: let me ask you about this debate debate between sanders and clinton. it seems totally cynical to me. both of the candidates want to have debates in places where they think it will help them. is this going to be a stalemate? >> i think it is going to be a stalemate. i think debbie wasserman schultz

and the executive director do not want to go in the direction of that anymore. they have been out on a limb for a long time. mark: enjoy your time out on the stump covering everybody. we will be right back with figuring out who won the day. ♪

john: it is the end of another day. day.ow who won the that would be donald j trump. who else won today? day soe won the

decisively. he just tweeted out something moments ago to clarify that he is not not doing the debate because of megyn kelly or the press release. it is important for him to stay on that message. bernie sanders won the day for getting to go to the white house. we are live 24/7 at bloombergpolitics.com. mark: thank you for watching. if you are washing doing -- watching us in washington, you can listen to us on 99.1. sayonara. ♪

emily: i am emily chang. the federal reserve is leaving interest rates unchanged. the fed says it is closely

watching how global pressures might affect the u.s. economy and it might slow future hikes if market lapses and global weakness continues. bernie sanders heads back to iowa after his meeting at the white house with president obama . he and the president have their differences, but he largely agenda.e president's people traveling to regions affected by the zika virus will not be able to donate blood. they will help maintain a safe blood supply. tied to birth defects. journalist return to the washington post today. his first visit to the newsroo