francine: the bank of japan takes rates negative. 10-year yields hit an all-time low in japan. oil extends gain as a country -- flies to affect talks. amazon does not deliver. ime holiday as the online retailer misses estimates. trading.nk in european so, welcome to "the pulse" live here in london. i'm francine lacqua.

of course, today it is all about japan and all about governor kuroda. first, let's get straight to first word news. nejra: thanks. the yen tumbled and japanese bond yields dropped to records after the central governor adjusted negative interest rates. the bank of japan's decision halted a yen rally. stocks have risen for the first time in four days amid speculations that the monthly selloffs as the global financial crisis was overdone. the central bank injected more liquidity into the financial system to avert a cash crunch before next month's holiday. france's recovery slowed in the fourth quarter as terrorist attacks cap tourists away and consumers from spending. gdp growth .2% in the final months of 2015. the spanish economy grew .8% in the three months through

december, pointing to further momentum for the nation's recovery. oil has extended gains from the n three weeks i after russia's energy minister said that opec may meet to discuss output. however, no talks have yet been scheduled. earlier this week, iraq said saudi arabia and -- were more flexible about adjusting output. francine: we have so much to talk about on the markets. let's have a quick look. 10-year japanese yields. the stoxx 600 getting a lift. kei ending the session 2.8% higher. about governor corona. why did he say they were not thinking about negative rates a week ago and is this a race against the ecb? the bank of japan's governor has sprung into action. speaking a week ago, kuroda

suggested more action could be on the way. governor kuroda: if necessary to achieve the target and particularly if underlying the it.ation trend, it affects ornecessary, we can expand inther strengthen our q.e. many ways. there are many ways to strengthen, expand q.e. francine: today we saw that exactly what it entailed. thebank of a ban moving -- bank of japan moving to negative interest rates. brian, this was a real surprise. why did it catch everyone off guard? kurodaas you said, mr. has been saying for weeks that dismiss all he didn't

the idea of negative rates and then he said last week it was not a topic among discussion up till then. obviously something changed very quickly yesterday and today when they held a meeting. you can see by the market reaction it was a -- dollar-yens shot up. stocks were all over the place as it was clear that investors were trying to shift through the detail and decide is it a plus and stocks rose. maybe it isid no, not. it was a real yo-yo situation in the stock market. everyone was baffled. it took us all a while to come to any sort of conclusions. francine: very quickly, when you look at what we heard, i spoke to governor corona at length, and he said inflation, we are concerned for today they said their inflation targets have to be pushed back. brian: that's correct. those of us who live in japan i

think we all kind of felt that was going to have to happen. they had only just recently pushed back the target but now they have done it again. and part of that, a lot of it has to do with energy prices and also has to do with the slowdown in china and the global economic malaise. us wouldnk many of say that they probably will not get the target, even the new one. it's overly ambitious. the economists we've surveyed, i do not believe any of them said that target is attainable in the near future. francine: think you so much. let's continue the conversation with our super panel. we gather the chief executive head ofof rng, and g-10 fx strategy at bank of america merrill lynch, and hsbc's head of asset allocation. they do for joining us. -- than youk for joining us. governor kuroodda is in a race

with mario draghi. are you confident he will get it right? >> well, no, not really. i think what really this is is a bondon that large yield purchases are not as effective as we thought they were going to be. we have had to go down into the negative -- francine: they are not effective. i call thewhat tricky trinity in terms of thinking about, we still have the deterioration of economic activity. that is clear in terms of our leading indicators. fairly pervasive. at the same time we have a very offset thato weakness from a monetary policy perspective. that puts us an extremely conservative position. i kn that has not necessarily been a popular viewow in the last year. it is more of a popular view

today. francine: this is the problem. the vote was 5-4. some members saying they did not negative rate because it would make people think that the asset purchase program had reached its limits. >> it was a close call. bank of japan officials a number of times in the past -- were voting against a negative deposit rate. this is crossing the line. i think what it will achieve is not necessarily to to lead to a sustainably weeak eynyen. it will avoid of further cellgthening of yen if the of continues. from this point of view, it makes sense. it also provides the boj with more bullets. they can push a strong yen by pushing negative deposit rates further. however, in terms of the

credibility of the bank of japan the fact they're guiding markets and did something different, this is not the best way to do it. francine: the question is also does it filtered through to the real economy? when you're looking at governor to do, an economy that is stagnant. inflation is not going anywhere and you wonder whether structural reforms neetu happen, not this kind of help. does it hurt bank profits in you wonder whether structural reforms are going to happen. >> maybe because of lack of demand for new borrowing, then that is going to -- back.take a bigger step we're looking at policies the last several years and this new policies as a small tinker policy in december. but the cbr the boj ecb. this is a time when we have slowing global growth. risk premium remains very high. this is a difficult thing for the central banks to try to get on top of. they are continuing to struggle. they have been saying for years now there is only so much they

could do. yet fiscal policy makers are doing very little. we think the law diminishing returns kicks in. unintended consequences will become more palpable. francine: when you look at governor kuroda, he's at the forefront of this. and the fact that he is saying he is losing credibility by telling the markets, guiding the markets in one direction. this must've been planned. is it just to show he will do whatever it takes? >> my guess is that in terms of more action they were thinking more of the q.e. territory. i do not think they have -- it m ight be because they realize -- g weake been gettin data in japan this week. given the price and that there has been upside pressure for the thn, more q.e. will not do

e trick. if market will buy yen deep they were to do more q.e. the market is thinking that more q.e. would be the last bullet for them. now with the deposit rate, they can argue there is lot more they can do. francine: you don't believe in this. do you think he will manage to get inflation up? it is almost out of governor kuroda's control, right? >> yes, there are things that are clearly out of his control. the demographic story which for japan, we all know about which is quite problematic. i do not think we should overestimate this move, either. this is not a massive move. 10 basis points negative. it is also on the marginal -- it's a tier system. it is not in the entire thing. so, reading too much into this, i also think is a big mistake. weaken, butsee yen

at the end of the day, we will see the fed ultimately not moving as much as everyone seems to think they were. francine: i was brought up to believe you do not fight the fed or central banks. for me, we are reading a lot into it because this is a central bank governor that wants to do more and will think outside the box. >> don't fight the fed. the real problem with that -- i need a lot of equity investors who basically argued that as bond yields drop, that means that the next -- values in equities rise. that makes sense if you attend economics 101. comesoblem is that that at the expense of lower growth rates but also we would argue that the risk premium in a lower wewth environment is simply are moving into a higher volatile environment, -- risk premiums rise and

e does not the pric move in the way it has done. francine: japan 10-year bond yields having its biggest drop since 2003. we are just getting started. plenty more to talk about including the fed and the applications for ecb. stay with us. now, also, russia is -- oil market. oil extending gains. exclusive comments from the countries energy minister coming up next. ♪

oil has been rising after russia's energy minister announced that opec may discuss output. ryan, exactly did he tell you? ryan: the russian energy minister wanted to make it clear that there is no confirmed meeting right now. no certainty that there will be a meeting between russia, opec, producers.on-opec he made comments yesterday that he feels were misinterpreted by the market perhaps. , he thought, was over interpreting the likelihood of a meeting. what he says that is, indeed,

venezuela is seeking a meeting of both opec and non-opec producers. they are the initiator of this effort to have a meeting. russia has agreed it would dissipates in a meeting if it was to take place, but there is no set agenda for the meeting. nor any confirmation that the meeting will take place or who would actually be there. so, early days, really, to be talking about a coordinated cut when it comes to oil supply. francine: did he give you an indication of what it would take to talk about coordinated cuts? when i look at the price of oil because it was rising on expectations that russia and opec producers would meet. it is now still rising but less than it was six minutes ago. great interview and great acts to have to the energy minister in russia. what is a scenario where he would consider -- points.ere are two the first one is he indicated that not only russia but many countries are more prepared to join in a coordinated cut than they were a year ago.

that is some movement there. he says the low oil prices have changed the mood. the concern they will persist. take tohat it would actually get a deal, there are a lot of conditions. one is consensus. all countries would have to agree to participate in taking part in a cut. you can imagine how complicated that would be. and then there would need to be some real mechanisms to make sure that the cut was carried out fairly by all countries. it might be ok to have it as a sort of gentlemen's agreement. it would not necessarily have to be a legal agreement. but there were have to be some kind of monitoring mechanism to make sure everybody was doing there fair part. so, there are a lot of steps. i think he was indicating it would be necessary, but his point was that russia is prepared to discuss the idea, ready to sit down, but that there is nothing actually certain on the table, no meetings planned just yet. francine: thank you so much.

great job with that excuse of interview with the energy minister of russian. now we are back with our super panel. you're probably one of the toughest analyst looking at facts. -- at fx. when you look at such a banks, how should they look at inflation? it all has to do with oil. the trend looks like it will continue going downwards. >> yes, indeed. actually, the drop in oil prices is good news. we're seeing practiced, the negative implications of the sharep drop in prices are immediate. economy withat an low inflation, this is affecting central-bank behavior.

what makes it different compared to the past is that the fed is now hiking rates. if inflation remains low, it is difficult for them to go back. it will take more negative news for the fed to admit that the december hike was a mistake. francine: that seems, markets took -- when we had that fed statement on wednesday night, it seems that it's very difficult because of the global uncertainty. open, but inmarch the dead improve substantially, it is hard for them to do something. i think they will decide the markets that push the fed rate hike to the end of this year. look at: when you deflationary pressures coming from china, coming from oil, there is nothing that any central bank can do to help it? frederik, things are

outside of their control. their markets 10 get -- can get the correlation between the weak oil price and what that means for currencies and other commodities in equity markets. the lack of global growth in the with theonths together accelerating downside in terms of decelerating growth and these deflationary concerns is something the market was not even thinking about last summer. the change in the big picture and the recognition that risk premiums are far too tight. markets are overvalued. central banks to not have big bullets. there is one more dynamic which i think is important which is basically dollar the quality -- dollar liquidity has gotten much tighter. this is a negative cocktail for asset prices. >> it is interesting. wherecally think that

consensus was look something like this. the u.s. looks fine, labor market looks good. china is a bit of a worry but we know about that. we alternately think we are late cycle so the risk are not necessarily in 2016 but in 2017. on the back of that, i'm going to sit overweight equities and i thoselan to sell equities in june. that sounds like a wonderful plan but the problem with that is then there are people like me who scuttled that. that's the consensus view. they will plan to sell in june. i will sell now. i think there is that overweight in that position he is completely taken down in what has been happening over the last few days or last few weeks is that all of the risk that people thought were going to happen in 2017, all it now looks like -- francine: in the first two weeks. >> 2016 risk. that transition has exaggerated some of these. francine: thank you.

i know some of you think that markets are irrational. others say, if they are irrational it means they fear something. that's a conversation we will have next. we continue the conversation with our guest panelists. boj follows the ecb into negative territory. ♪

caroline: nejra: amazon sell an extended

trade after sales missed estimates for the holiday. operating expenses jumped 21% as a newts kept up spending technology and delivery services. it erased more than $5 billion rth. jeff bezos's net wo james murdoch is to return as sky's new chairman. martin gilbert will be his deputy. the company reveals first half operating profit is 747 million pounds, up 12% on last year. sony has reported third quarter that beat analysts estimates. monthsllion in the three to the end of 2015. its playstation business helped offset slowing demand for chips for smartphone cameras. that is your business flash. francine: thank you so much. an european stocks

rally. let's not forget the price of oil. we had a great interview that ryan chilcote did with the energy measure -- the energy minister of russia saying they are not looking at opec meetings for the moment. gaininge of oil, brent 3.75% but a little bit less, was, it think, less than it gaining couple minutes ago let's go back to our super panel. we were talking before the break about the irrationality or rationality of markets. the last two like weeks we have china turmoil, geopolitics -- all the fears we had last year. are the markets irrational? >> increasingly, yes. francine: is it liquidity? >> they are being forced to chase yields. them?ne: forcing >> it highly depend. i think the high-yield market looks more rational than equity

markets. but there is a set of underlying associates. >> yes, it's possible for markets to be irrational. they're irrational because of central banks. francine: back in two. ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20. it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around.

welcome back to "the in london. let's get straight to bloomberg first word news. nejra: thanks. the yen tumbled as japanese bond yields dropped for records after governor kuroda adopted negative interest rates. the bank of japan's decision halted a yen rally that was threatening to be the strongest since kuroda took office. china stocks have risen for the first time in four days amid speculation that the monthly selloff was overdone. the central bank more liquidity into the financial system to avert a cash crunch before next

month's holidays. france's recovery slowed in the fourth quarter as terrorist attacks cap tourists away and discouraged consumers from spending. gross thomistic product group .2% in the final three-month of 2015. the spanish economy grew .8% in donalde months -- trump dominated last night's republican presidential debate in iowa even though he was not there. while his rivals discussed t islamic terrorism and immigration, trump stole the spotlight. crowd broke out in chance of "usa" during a gathering broadcast on cnn. global news when he four hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world.

david cameron is stepping up efforts to force a deal on britain's e.u. membership. he traveled to brussels to travel to meet jean-claude juncker. this is a last-minute change to reschedule. should we interpret anything from the? >> i think it is a sign that things are not quite going according to plan. cameron one of wanted a deal by now. there isome signs conversion towards a deal but not as quick as the prime minister wanted and perhaps not the deal he can accept. it quite quite unprecedented for a british prime minister to drop everything and rush to brussels like this. francine: what does mr. cameron hope to achieve? are we going to get anything concrete, or is it trying to tamp the fire? we're going tonk get anything concrete quite yet.

that might come early next week. he has also spoken to the president of the european council. heay with president juncker is going to discuss how legally it could work, the idea of capping welfare benefits for migrants. if he can get a deal on that, there is something to work with as we approach the next three weeks before the e.u. summit. then he'll hope a referendum on the data he wants it, june 23. francine: thank you so much. we think he may call it on june 23. we made a great graphic because we were looking at the timetable of football. a question to the people of britain. it looks like according to our calculation june 23 may be the winning date for a referendum. with me is my super panel.

stewart, let me go with you. we were talking about the fears that we would hope and may come a little bit later. china, brexit, oil. you look into all of this and you do not know your play on the markets. what is your top play in 2016? >> one of our top places to be bullish of u.s. treasuries five year and bearish of german five year. is the european economy doing a bit better, the changes in economist forecasts, the most improve for europe. although draghi clearly tried to do whatever it takes, he is pushing the envelope pretty far here. this is fully reflecting and german government bond prices. in the u.s. we talk about the slowdown which we think is for real. the fed may not raise rates at all this year. the risk of recession are rising. francine: do they cut rates? maybe? >> that is a big retraction of

the previous policy which may be a step too far. really, we think the u.s. yields can come down to match lower german yields. the second trade we like a lot is non-japanese asian currencies. with the boj doing what they are doing and the pboc wanting to do whatever it takes, we think they will continue to see pressure on the, downward pressure on their currencies. that is coupled with low global growth and general trade slow down. we think the precious remain on asian fx, excluding the yen. >> it is pointless to try to time the risk on, risk off market move. we focus on relative volume. we still like selling euro-yen, because we believe at the end of the day, the ecb will do more than the boj and there is a lot of catching up to do with the b oj. other relative to trade, we like --if oil prices stabilize,

this is a trade that can do well. >> for me, it is pretty simple. it comes into the question about rationality. we're basically where we think the relative assumptions that are going into the credit markets, specifically u.s. dollar high-yield, is medically different from what we are seeing in equity markets. the favorite tree would be long high-yield and short u.s. equities. as impliedetric default rates giving current levels of spread is 11% for the entire high-yield market. that does not happen outside recession. at the same time s&p is predicting seven plus earnings growth. second would be just -- long u.s. treasuries. in an environment where the dollar's is hurting u.s. growth, we can see the number of

indicators in the u.s. including some of the order numbers coming leadingnd our indicators are suggested that for a while that means the fed does not move in the same way everyone is thinking that it is. from a global bond investors pointed view, the asset class -- its treasury markets becomes a juice yield. difficult being an asset manager in this kind of environment. you also become a geopolitics expert. you do not know how central banks, how far they can go and whether it will work. how do you look at brexit? who wants to go first. it is difficult to model. i am not sure if it will be bound positive -- pound positive or pound negative. initial face it has to

be pound negative. there are number different geopolitical events, not just brexit that is an issue. i think there are number of these events. we still have not really soft the eurozone. francine: we are worried about finland, worried about the refugees. >> that means that, yes, as far as i'm concerned, we spend a h uge amount of time trying to figure out where we are in the economic cycle. weh a have a number of leading indicators attempt to lead pmi's. geopolitical risk is a function of the economic risk. it is much easier to think about what economics does data aroundave that. on the back of that makes it a station of what is going to happen from a geopolitical perspective. francine: you were saying that i doould be long on greek, not know if it is bonds are equities, but you think there is value to be made there. >> greece is an interesting

case. it is not going to be smooth, but we believe that it is likely by the end of this year, greece program.d the ecb's this will be bullish for bonds and equities. they have to conclude the next two reviews. it will take time but the end game this year is q.e. last year, the risk was grexit. now it is a much more positive scenario. francine: do you agree? >> we do not trade in greek bonds. the whole geopolitical situation is becoming another big headline. the whole middle eastern situation continues to rumble on. when you look at what is happening and driving debate around oil, you have got two very important countries -- russia, saudi in terms of impact in the middle east. these guys are feeling the pain in terms of lower oil prices which is why there are beginning to talk about something to be done on. what if one of these guys turns

round and for whatever reason we could see a currency -- change. saudi is a worse case in appeared that could be destabilizing. also china building runways in the south china sea. all of these geopolitical issues remain unresolved. it is a political project without political unity. all of these things are hurting equities at the moment. francine: thank you so much. that was a fun panel. thank you for joining us. now, let's do a quick data check because we've had a lot of news today, on especially, mr. kuroda looking at negative rates in japan. we also have that great interview with the russian energy minister that our ryan chilcote did. oil price is still gaining but it is a little bit lower. this is after russia said, yes, it is moving to discuss an production but no

talks are plan. yesterday we understood that russia was ready and had something in the diary to talk with opec producers about cutting oil. you can see any little thing like that has a huge impact on the oil markets as markets remain extreme me nervous. up next, it has been a very unhappy new years for equity investors. could luxury watches be less volatile? ♪

francine: welcome back to "the london.ive from 29 days into the year we have seen $7 trillion wiped off the value of global stocks, investors worry about further market turmoil in the possibility of deflation. could we see renewed interest in alternative investments? lets introduce our guest to talk a little bit of luxury and art and watch. swisso of the watchmaker, h mozier. thank you so much for coming in. we want to do something different because news that the markets are tanking, they are not taking today but we want to get a flavor of what kind of opportunities -- and you have come on the show and talk about the impact of high swiss franc. let me start with you. how much potential is there in art? every week 16 we have a new record sale from the fencrench? where are your customers from?

>> a lot more demand and especially on the magic name, on name, on the nice pieces. people now want to invest some of their assetsin art -- in art. they're really looking for more in terms of impressionist modern art. francine: i think we saw a record for a picasso and a gaugin in 2015. you are expecting more record sales. why is it? asian buyers being more interested or western buyers? >> two trophies of the previous year. there is quite a lot of, yes, asian buyers. we're selling quite well in china. in china, there is hundreds of museums coming up. so they need to fill the walls

of these museums. so, that is very good for us. we are also selling to a private museum in korea, in south korea. 43o in south korea, around private museums we're dealing with. yes, asian markets is very good for us. around 25% of our turnover, which is quite huge. francine: talk to us about the watch industry. last time a you are here we talked about because the swiss franc is so expensive and is considered a haven, it makes it more pricey for you to sell abroad. is that still the case? >> i think it is not really the swiss franc that has the biggest impact on the status of the swiss watch industry. i think it is more geopolitical, chinese traveling less to europe. terror attacks being a big factor there. the swiss franc if we look back, i think it was a year ago, as we unpegged from the euro.

we are pretty much back where we were before. it is just the euro. and the eurozone is the one that drew the most. the rest tanked but the eurozone was the strongest. francine: actually, the recovery byce hearing euorrope is led consumption, what is your business doing at the moment. is a doing well. we did economic charts. we need a chart for you. it basically shows the number of swiss watches. it is not your company in particular but the number of watches that are sold abroad. what is your main challenge for the next 12 months? >> i think many markets have a lot of potential. the overall watch industry decreased last year for the first time since 2009 by 3.3%. which are a statistic that -- we can question. it is only about exports. it is not mean that those watches have been bought by customers. the reality is worse than those

numbers. the chinese market. if the chinese do not want to come to europe and by watches which is a huge market for the swiss watch industry, then we are in trouble. november, december, january we're not going to write direction. can we compensate with other markets? i think so. japan, korea, hong kong recovery. but a challenging year. francine: i was trying to think about the impact of technology. it looks like fear this may be a positive because as a buyer, you go on instagram, you can see a painting, it is much more easier for you to sell. for you, it may be in negative if people decide to go for the apple watch. >> it's amazing for us, all the social network, instagram. we communicate a lot with that. francine: do you seell through instagram?

how much percentage of your sales is through social media? >> people get to know is much better. i can post one picture for day of my artists. ie of my biggest artists promote now in the next two years, i discovered him on instagram. it works in both ways. it is really amazing. so, yeah -- francine: for you? do you feel like you are in competition with the apple watch? or not at all. it is not high end. >> if we look at statistics, i think the part of the industry that got most impacted last year or the decrease in sales was 200 to 500 swiss franc's they have probably been hit by the apple watch. what we learn from the apple watch is the way they communicate, get inspired by the design. yes, instagram, facebook, social media externally important. it is a great opportunity for mose brands like h.

because wer can certainly use new media that the big brands are scared to use. we learn a lot from them in terms of dynamics, the way to communicate. it is a great opportunity for niche brands. francine: who exactly is your ideal client? someone that comes back because they collect watches? do you sell 99% of your sales cement. -- sales to men. >> pretty much. . we do not produce many we do everything in house. it is the mindset of the customers who look today and more and more it is not about the brand, it is about the products and in transit valley. many brands just do marketing and put a logo on something that they buy from somebody else. tag on it.huge price the market is changing. digital media helps educate customers. that is a huge opportunity for small brands. that is why we have great growth when others are going down. francine: who is your ideal customer? do you sell to women?

>> of course. >> no, we sell to everyone. we have a very unique concept of -- we are in the main street, in all the big cities. so, we are educated collectors. and new collectors. it's the way we work. so, we have men, women, older people, young people. francine: how many are actually looking for investment? how many say, how much return to i get for this painting in 10 years? or do you say, buy a painting because you need to like it. >> of course, everyone wants to make an investment when they buy a painting. they do not want to lose money. they can all enjoy the art, of course on their walls, but the way we work is with really trying to make an investment. our, i will say 80% of clients wants to do an investment. also in the same time. francine: that was a really

interesting conversation. it is so much more difficult to look for that elusive consumer. theceo of h. moser and director of opera gallery london. coming up, we talk tech. taking stock of an earnings miss. amazon treads a fine line between balancing cost and sales growth. we have details next. ♪

francine: welcome back to "the

pulse" streaming on your tablet, your phone and of course, bloomberg.com. amazon shares are down in premarket trading following a surprise miss. the holiday cortisol sure. caroline hyde here with the latest. tell us how bad were the numbers. caroline: well, not that bad. there is growing frustration. this is a company that plows most of the money back into the business and does not really come up with profit. they did post a profit that more than double. about 54% less than where the market wanted to see it. sales up 22% but operating costs up 21%. $35 billion they are raking in a terms of revenue, they have plowed almost all of it back into the business, back into employees which they have raised by 50%. plowing into new territories, new product such as the latest kindle fire. but also, fulfillment costs. this is a company that wanted to become addicted to amazon.

to do that, you have to spend 33% more on fulfilling more orders, because they continue on to prime minister. prime ever ship is more lucrative. prime membership is more look at it. we saw shares fall off. they more than double last year. francine: thank you so much. caroline hyde with the latest on amazon. european markets rallying this morning after kuroda governor kuroda c-- after governor kuroda cut rates into negative territory. mark: the yen biggest decline since december 2014 as kuroda managed to shock markets. ryan show called interviewing the russian energy minister who confirmed no meeting between opec and non-opec investors. is in the offing. crude giving up half of its earlier gains.

ryan chilcote, well done. francine: well done. well said. stay with bloomberg. "surveillance" is up next. we'll talk more about the boj experiment and whether it will work. you are watching bloomberg. ♪ . . .

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vonnie: catching up the ecb, the 10-year yields at an all-time low, and stocks gain. in a bloomberg exclusive, the manager saysy outlook talks are only possible at all exporting nations agree. and if amazon does not deliver a not so prime holiday season. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillancee."