>> with all due respect, iowa caucus-goers, put away your phones and pay attention and experience the caucuses, for god's sake. ♪ mark: -- john: we are at mission control at the marriott, roughly 72 beforeefore islands -- those in iowa kickoff the elections. they will be coming from every

corner 242 events. rapids,ux city to city there is urgent rallying cries. >> if you stand up for me, i will stand up and fight for you as hard as i can for the next four years. >> the toy for century was not as good as the 20th center, it was a new american century. this is what we can do together. >> you send me out of here with the wind at my back and i will go a long way. >> the first time, genuine 17, i will not sit around. >> yes. we can transform this country and yes, we can reach our potential. >> if you are looking for somebody with a servant's heart with a backbone and a heart for people, i hope that you will vote for me. at 7:00 a.m. -- excuse me, go at

7:00 p.m. joe: mildly, donald trump with analysis today. child -- trump form, he said he was giving the debate for veterans. it was a huge success, raising $6 million. he had sharp words for his rivals in iowa, especially ted cruz. >> he is in second place, he got hold last night that pummeled last night. wow. and you know, they do not even mention he was from canada. when you are born in canada, you are not supposed to be running for president of the united states. ted cruz may not be a u.s. citizen, right? baby in canada. but canada does not accept

anchor babies. cruise -- cruz, is he free and clear from paying costs? and: every instinct i have everything jump -- a donald trump has is that this did not hurt him and he is entering the weekend without damage from the debate, instead a huge mama of dominance which got him where he is today, front runner for the nominee. john: with only one exception, it seems to me that all republican candidates were disoriented and weirded out by the fact that chump -- donald trump was not there. he was a suddenly gone. he was the son gone, or some other utopian law provoked. nobody took advantage in a meaningful way. appeared in-- he

iowa plenty of times, he chose to appear in new hampshire today. the part of it is, when he comes to a place he draws a crowd. he does not have to do city by city, town by town, is an extraordinary advantage he has. john: i think he overstated when he says that ted cruz got pummeled. i do not think that he severed immeasurably. i do not think that anybody gained or suffered, i mentioned bush who i thought was strong. but by seeming strong, i think that he almost seemed weak. mark: they did. it also allows jeb bush a chance to get a look at what he needs. ok, ted cruz and marco rubio have been working hard to draw contrasts with one another, but there is one thing the two sides agree on. both campaigns are downplaying caucus night, despite an uptick

in the florida senators poles, rubio and the staff suggest they do not expect him to come in first or second on monday. ted cruz's campaign manager said he expects ted cruz to be in third. >> what do you think will happen? >> i think we will win. >> by how much? >> closer to the margin, maybe outside the margin of error. >> you expect marco rubio to be third? >> no. very close. >> four or five points? >> no. alix: that was funny. mark: you have the same situation where rubio and ted cruz are playing the same situation, do not look for a mark -- marco rubio search.

john: marco rubio is a simple one, he wants expectations to below and exceed them. he does not want anybody to think he has a chance. but takers is more complicated -- ted cruz is more competition, he has been slipping and they want to bolster their image to be in the top two to motivate supporters. mark: if you thought all the campaigns, the perception is donald trump is firm and marco rubio could be moving up and there is a question, ted cruz, is the slipping -- are they slipping? they do not want to inspire supporters. it is interesting, because now we believe that marco rubio will be third or fourth and he will be the top establishment venture into the other ones do not dispute that. and the undercard, what does marco rubio need to do on caucus night to be part of the story out of here? does a third-place finish mean

anything? john: the marco rubio people started to freak out this week when people not in their immediate orbit, the people on the outer rings, started to get excited about the possibility that he could come in second. i got out into the media and the campaign said, that is not good. do not think about that. turning to the democratic race now, as we head into the final we can before the obama administration officials said hillary clinton's home server contains 22 e-mails that included information that was top secret. in response, a clinton spokesperson said it was overclassification and blamed the situation on an agency dispute. my question is, how serious legally and politically is this new revelation? mark: legally, inputs her staff

-- it puts her staff in jeopardy, because this classification shows carelessness on their part. even if things were not marked that way, this is information that they should have known. and it could eventually get to her. politically, this is horrible for anybody who cares about the issue. polls show that people do not care, but we always said, if there was a sanders victory in iowa and an e-mail controversy looking like a problem, that is when, if sanders wins in iowa, that is when panic will set in. john: we noted yesterday, that the sanders and clinton fight has done a little more negative. there was a time when sanders was trying to take the high road . that is when he said the nobody wants to hear about your e-mails. i think that he will win here

and he will start to raise this issue. he will say, when you think about this. he wants to make the electability argument and he will start to talk about it if headlines continue. mark: you always look at the body language of folks. they clearly are somewhat uncomfortable with what this is. at least as a legal matter. they have characterized what is going on. which i think is a weird thing. but, they are going to have trouble characterizing what is going on now in light of this characterization. john: you are on tv this morning talking about how serious this is there from your sense, where clinton people happy to hear you talking about this? mark: even before this revelation about the e-mails, they are concerned about this and they understand this is a new phase in the problem. of next -- up next, we'll be

talking about the circus on showtime. this episode is called, tension city. ♪

♪ mark: what better way than spending sunday night than watching the circus on showtime. this week, the show focuses on the attention that is building up -- tension that is building up before the caucuses. here is a sneak peek, looking at first ted cruz. [applause]

>> thank you. [chatter] >> thank you for all he has done for the state of texas. bring him all the way to the white house. >> thank you. thank you very much. thank you for everything. thank you. >> blessing. mark: ok, another clip for you. follownie sanders who we to iowa state university. [applause] [cheering] ♪ >> it is amazing. [chanting] ♪

>> who is feeling the bern today? [applause] abouts is not just electing the president, but what is more important is transforming the united states. there are a lot of folks out there who say, young people come out for meetings and the students go to rallies, maybe they will volunteer. but when it counts on election night, february 1, they will not show up. let's make those pundits eat those words. [applause] ♪ what we are doing is trying to show people what it is like, politics is exciting, but

upple start to 10th -- tense when there are things on the line. john: very little circumstances -- it is happening all over iowa. we got a captured in this episode, we have been here for operatorscollected trying to present that the also on edge. mark: the circus will air on showtime, sunday night. our tomorrow, do not miss iowa poll announcement. we will stream it live at 630 eastern time. all the numbers from that pool. of next, what does hillary clinton's campaign manager worry about ahead of the caucuses? we will ask him, after this. ♪

♪ mark: are you excited about monday? >> i am very excited. mark: are you nervous? >> no. mark: that was hillary clinton at a campaign rally, urging supporters to support her on monday night. taking selfies with babies, not the reporters. breaking news, they say that they raised $55 million through january and have a total of 92.5 million dollars. today we caught up with her campaign manager and asked him

what they had learned from 2008 and how he is feeling about the home stretch. mark: you are a campaign guy. you do campaigns, so what happens in the last 72 hours? >> what really matters is the volunteers on the ground. it is their show now. me and everybody else, we are here to support them and there is focus on the doors, having face to face conversations. we know our supporters now, we need to get them to the caucuses. mark: you focus so much on ground, how do you rate the field operations? ours.an regard -- rate i feel really good about the operation we have. we started building this in april. we have had a lot of staff out here. what really matters is the relationships they build and the

leadership we developed amongst volunteers. that is what we care about. the staff are not the ones in the field on caucus night. it is those volunteer captains and helping support them. it is about the lift of supporters that we have built. so, i feel fantastic. i have never seen anything like this. my most inspiring moments on this campaign, this is when i am on the -- in the room, the energy, the enthusiasm may have and the commitment. these people are giving dozens of hours a week in many cases and they are doing it because they care. mark: what is the role of your candidate? roles?l -- their >> is explaining to people why they should pick secretary clinton. you heard her talking about why she would be the best choice in

the democratic field, but against the republicans as well. she has done a brilliant job talking about her record of accomplishment, how she has created change, how she can produce real results for people. he is the biographer and chief of the campaign and for the rest of us, this is about rallying folks and reminding them when to go caucus. john: what is the difference between us and 2008? that campaign had lots of problems. how consciously are you doing things differently and in what ways? >> every campaign has challenges did we have had our share on this campaign. as i said earlier -- well, we made it a focus from day one that we were going to be humble and fight for every single vote. we knew this would be close. that is a good thing did we embrace to that -- thing.

and we embraced that and we worked with volunteers. our priority each day, how we build events, how she spends her time. these relationships are a priority. guy. you are a methodical he must have looked at this campaign. what lessons did you learn from her third-place finish? >> i think it is dangerous to make too many comparisons to 2008, these candidates, there are three this time. there are three competing for the top spot. again, this is focusing on fundamentals, working hard and building relationships. you know, i obviously have drawn on lessons i learned from 2008. i was in nevada. it was about the importance of leadership in the caucus rooms.

you have to develop that. that might be a different mother this is a different race, different year. mark: i have met some of your staff. i have never seen as impressive a group. they are incredibly well trained. you have spent a lot of time with them. you have put in place, young idealistic people. what are you worried could go wrong on caucus night? thingsstly, there are you can control, i feel good about those things. and things you cannot control. i do not worry about them. mark: are you are at about candidates? i would be worried that this enthusiasm from other candidates, senator sanders, it could be bigger. do you worry about that? >> i worry that our supporters do not think it matters if they

turn out or not. some people think the caucus is a free pass them a it is fun, they turn out for whoever. our people in need to understand this will be close. mark: that i will pull -- iowa what do youme out, hope for? what do you hope it shows? >> i hope it shows a close race. we want to be ahead. mark: you want a lead? >> that would be great. the polls are not always accurate. i want it to show a close race, a little edge that we have, momentum going in. mark: let me ask. drill down, down -- i have been to these events.

, she isanders' events performing at a high-level, but either different -- these are different. they are bigger. it does not not freak you out a little bit? there could be some enthusiasm there that could be problematic? >> every campaign has a different side. i am looking at metrics. how many supporters we have, how well captains are trained, how well they are contacting people at the doors. i feel terrific on those. some people are working all day and they cannot come to events like this or others have childcare in the evening and cannot come to the events. i only want to read the things i know. people,needed to tell last name is blank and rhymes

with blank. >> the truth is it is supposed to be mook rhyming with brook. mark: they got changed by dick cheney. >> sometimes people do not hear it right. mark: you sometime say mook. like luke. john: we can get away with either one. mook and always says he spelled it out. ,ohn: what happens, if you lose what happens? do not say on to new hampshire. >> we have a multitiered strategy. we started working on this in

the summer. we started talking about what is next. march 1 is a tremendously important day. only about 4% of candidates have a stake in february. back,when we come breakfast with ted cruz's campaign manager and her discussion with him, after this. the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,

and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.

it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. mark: we hosted another great number politics breakfast.

we had as our guest jethro, ted cruz's campaign manager. we talked about a lot of things, including starting out with donald trump. >> i think it is going to be a record turnout. 100 29,900 is the record. i think we will beat us. i think it will be 10% over that, 15% over that. there is only one way to know, to call people and ask them. are your candidates a pretty good fit for the caucus electorate? if trump one, how would you explain that? >> what did ben carson get? mark: 7%. you will have to explain it going into new hampshire.

he has not visited more than a handful of counties. he has a personal life that is different from a lot of the electorate. how will you explain that? >> the reason why it is a good question, i want to go through the math. i've to see the rest of the board. on sunday, we will announce that we have nearly $19 million in the bank. -- bet that that is $10 million more than anybody else. for an alternative to try them but they better be ready to go the long way with him. mark: what is their argument? >> any vote that is not for us is probably a wasted vote. i encountered my first voter yesterday that have

dropped out of concerns that he was born in canada, and would he be eligible, etc.. >> did you get his name? [laughter] who did he go to? trial. think he went to what kind of attrition you see in your numbers? what do you tell people? had -- since we began our modeling process, we our overallave -- numbers, let's say our numbers on hundred and 40% of the vote -- 114% of the vote. we have grown from our internal high water mark. but we'll certainly lost of people and replaced them. so we have lost people, but we have replaced them at a higher rate. as muchon't overlap u

as people think. when you look at our best diagram, it is much more overlap with trump, but more overlap with carson, much less overlap with rubio. some were not comfortable this morning, but there is a bit of an interest there. every other newspaper in iowa, every single other newspaper in iowa, from the muscatine journal to the quad city paper, head uz spar on immigration. that is a great headline for us to an. we are set up a little bit differently, the you try to get your volunteers to speak for 30 seconds or less. campaign are trying to

happen have a conversation, 30 minutes or longer. we have those conversations, and our conversion rate is very great with all the candidates. >> 20 think will happen? >> i think we will win. mark: here to talk with us about is the host of the breakfast. tell me what he says that people would like to know? where does this thing stand? >> campaigns often produce new rock stairs. if ted cruzle, and wins this thing, i think jeff roe may be the rock star as far as a campaign strategist is concerned. i think his basic view is we have done our people. if this is anything like a normal turnout, we feel in good

shape. suddenly it is 2008, and donald trump produces hordes of new caucus-goers, and that might produce a different result. but you are talking about the data. they really fine-tune it. areays we know there 208,700 people deciding between us and marco rubio. between us and donald trump. mark: i have never heard inoperative site statistics like that in my whole career. >> they have invested into this data. we will see if it pays off. it has been a two-person race here for a while. do you think you can just hand about -- he has tipped his hand about where they are going to

place? >> this is such a great cliché. they are cautiously optimistic. but i do think it goes to who comes out. iowa 150,000 caucus-goers that have not voted before. get 141,000 people voting, that is a good night for donald trump. thousand,ore like 130 that would give ted cruz an edge. mark: he disagreed with his boss. he expresses great confidence that they have the resources and organization to go into more to get trump no matter what. >> on the point of resources, they are right. they had $19 million in the bank, and the supertex have a lot more. i did not find him as convincing on this if trump wins in new hampshire, i agree that they can go to march, but they are not

going to march in a very strong position. mark: of next week talk more about donald trump with reporters who know him well. ♪

>> last night we had an exciting night because i did something that was a little bit unusual. a very goodi have relationship with fox, but when summonses not treat you properly, you have to be tough, you have to be strong. cannot let them push you around. that goes for the country. i did something that was very risky, and i think it turned out good, because i got more publicity than if i went to i don't know. his: that was donald at

rally today. about 2.7 million people watched his veterans rally last night. including our next three guest. s. thank you for coming in. win,uick go around, lose? >> we're sitting here talking about him, so i say he won. he got to talk about what he wanted to talk about, rather than having to answer questions. john: any loss for trump? >> i think there may be some potential loss. i agree that he dominates almost anything does, but is in part because we let that happen. he is a big story, he knows how to use the media effectively. if iowa votersr

say i was little high-handed, and we prefer candidates were more humble. think he one overview: the home -- one over the people in the home. are covering: you it very tough beat very well. what did you learn new about trump last night based on that event? >> he was talking a lot about money. this is one measure where he has not had to compete with the other candidates and says does not have a super pac. he is taking small donations, but not soliciting them. last night he had a fundraiser. the money is going to go to the veterans, not to his campaign.

theas able to state on stage and say that within 24 hour see had collected $6 million, and look at the connections he has, look how he is able to do this and that is the first time i saw him kind of gloating about his ability to bring in money. could raise a lot of money in a super pac if he tried. >> that is what he says. mark: the trump, ted cruz battle, he is not a typical candidate in any way. at ted cruz, organized for months, as profile of the iowa caucus-goers, if trump wins, how will you done it? o it by the way

to dominate mass medications and away nobody has been able to do before. we have never seen a candidate with the kinds of skills and understanding of modern media that this candidate has. he communicates directly. he connects directly. he knows how to create excitement and interest and outrage and all of the other things that draw attention to him. if he wins it will be because of that. you have covered a lot of presidential candidates. are you prepared to say that no one is as good at those skills than him? >> it is hard to make comparisons. we think of ronald reagan as a great communicator, which he was, but the communication technology of the 1980's was fundamentally different than it was today. we have never seen anybody in the age of modern media and social media who communicates as effectively as donald trump. again, until we know the end of the story, we cannot try final

conclusion on that. but the people we have seen over the last several cycles, he has mastered it in a way that others have not. john: it went as a civilian last night. what was that like? >> was released stood out to me as how the candidates are using these to communicate. what came out last night was his primal dominance, the idea that i am a strong man, that i'm not only bringing other candidates to stand in front of my assigned, but i'm reordering the political process. theideas that he has strength to change things were an ordinary politician would not. and then you listen to ted cruz's manager, and then the message 60 i'm selling conservative purity. i have the issue positions, the stances, this the way to fix the problems in the world. it is policy. this battle between strength and

purity is a fascinating thing we are seeing materialize. john: even the candidates were not competing in iowa are in for today, john kasich examples. donald trump is in new hampshire. >> it is not just in iowa. he says he will win iowa. he will be disappointed if he does not win iowa. not win here, it is not the end of the world. he wants to do well in new hampshire, he wants to do well in south carolina. next week he will be in arkansas for a primary. long game.ng the this is not just about the first couple of contests. you for coming in. meetings. more politics calling sherry this -- our bloomberg politics colleagues join us. ♪

john: joining us now, three members of our bloomberg politics team. thank you for stepping into the set. surprising to me, not that many statuses of the candidates keeping her own schedule. -- spouses of the candidates keeping her own schedule. they are going with the candidates. how is that going for the clintons? >> she feels it is important to help energize them as they love bill clinton. we are seeing him on his own them and we see them join forces

for the weekend and throw chelsea in the mix to see if i can get younger people excited. americans love clinton had remember him as a really strong residents. core of whathe made bill clinton great. it is still -- it cannot hurt. he is very popular. donald trump is also bringing his family out in a very visible way. how does that work? >> they can be character references. some were hunting in the sportsman community. between howrast donald trump campaigns and prefers to use massive rallies filled with thousands of people versus the more traditional rope line retail politics. we have seen marco rubio

move up in the polls. after making much less of an , how aret over time the marco rubio full feeling about how they got here? >> they are playing the expectation game very well and very carefully. third place in their view would be a victory because they can move forward, trying to consolidate the center-right those are the establishment candidates. they're doing the rudy giuliani strategy. right now they are not positioned to win any of those states, so there is an upside to the long game. but the down is they are betting against history. john: you're probably not all that unhappy to see this story about the e-mails pop-out.

up. growing operation, that they may not just get there? >> bernie sanders is a little bit tricky because he has made such a deal that saying he is not going negative. i think he is relying on republicans going negative on this one. they will see whether she can rise above it, or become defensive about this in the last couple of days. people draw their own associations. >> look at what the polling has told us over all this time. bigonly reason he has a lead is because of the anti-wall street sentiment. is the campaign doing in the last three days to

try to make sure he does well? >> they are trying to get out the vote. misnomer about the trump organization, that they are not being taken seriously in terms of aggressive outreach. they have a very elaborate sense of these volunteers of these caucus organizers that they feel are going to be able to get to the caucuses and convince these first-time voters to get to the caucuses and turnout for them. they think that quite frankly these are the people you will not want to lose an argument with. they are rowdy, fired up, and imagine yourself in a caucus with donald trump supporters. mark: obviously, we spent a lot of time talking about donald trump and ted cruz and that dynamic. does it matter to the republican race who finishes first or second? >> as he absolutely does. this state is meekly tailored to ted cruz's strength.

donald trump is up at almost every other state. spent so much money and effort here, if he cannot win here for the question becomes where can he be donald trump? -- beat donald trump? ruzhave seen trump and crew in the conservative lanes. in theot only moderately, but dominating. this is a big problem for the bushes, reviews, and k-6 at christie's because they want to make it a one-on-one with torself and donald trump fight for the moderates. mark: very competitive races on both sides. does this seem crazy intense and insane, or just an election? >> it is about what we expected. >> i was here 2008.

it does not feel like 2008 at all. on the other hit by think in 2008 i think it was surprised other happened -- on the hand i think everybody was surprised in 2008 when it happened. mark: anywhere you went coming in that the caucuses were going on. this time, you can go out and people are not talking about it nearly as much, which suggests that the turnout will not be as monstrous as it was. if your bernie sanders coming up to believe that they will come. >> butter registration is not gone up as nearly as much as it needs to better voter registration has not gone up as registration voter has not gone up as nearly as much as they hoped. ♪

everybody stay tuned. this saturday night we will have the results of our final bloomberg politics register iowa poll. lifestream will reveal all of those results. marco rubio is clearly the establishment favorites to fill that slot if there is one. you can watch as or listen to us on the radio at any time. it to our special on monday. sayonara.

emily: i'm emily chang and you are watching "bloomberg west." the obamarst time, administration has said hillary clinton's server contained

closely guarded secrets. the state department is releasing 1000 pages of e-mails from clinton's time a secretary bestate for 22 e-mails will withheld because they contain top-secret material. says 12.5 million people tuned in for last night's theld trump-free debate, second lowest rated debate of the presidential primary season. set out yesterday's debate and staged his own event in iowa. california officials say one of three fugitive inmates from an orange county jail is in custody . two other men who escaped from prison are still at large. a woman who taught english to one of the inmates has been booked as an accessory. police say she gave prisoners maps of the jail complex. ishigan governor snyder giving another $28 million in emergency aid for flint's lead-tainted water crisis.