tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg January 30, 2016 1:00pm-2:01pm EST
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♪ >> coming up on "bloomberg best, " the stories that shaped the week around the world. a close eye a nervous markets. >> everybody can take a deep breath and stop freaking out. betty: for the first time in years apple sees slow growth ahead. twitter shakes up its executive ranks. aig rules of a brand-new strategic plan. willie get results? -- will they get results? >> i'd like to see them regain some of the strength and stature it had. i don't see it yet. betty: heavy hitters join us to talk business and politics. >> you want to crash it. betty: when they make
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predictions they swing for the fences. >> jeff bezos will be the richest person in the world within five or seven years. betty: the week's most thrilling charts and experts discuss the risk of u.s. recession. it's all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ betty: hello, i'm betty liu. "bloomberg best welcome to"bloomberg best." --welcome to "bloomberg best." thist volatility continues week with investors looking everywhere for signs of stability. as we take a day-to-day look at the top headlines, the dominant theme is change. >> twitter shares are tanking again, closing down almost 5% after the company lost for key members of its executive leadership team.
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kevin we'll have a product, it's head of engineering, the head of media, and vice president of human resources. what do we knew and what don't we know? there's also a board shakeup coming. >> we know for sure that these people have left twitter. of vine hase head left twitter. the fifth person this week. and we know they are adding two members to the board based on information from sources. we also know they're getting close to hiring a cmo. >> what to make of these departures? >> in any transition you see this kind of turnover in pretty much every company. twitter, itthis is lives in a public space. they have a bigger glare on them right now. i don't be this is anything unusual. if it were any other regular company, nobody would even notice. >> let's get to the big changes
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in aig. carl icahn is taking action. shares are higher on the news today. stirling, is josh who's doing extensive research and coverage of aig. let me get your reaction to we heard today. not what carl icahn wanted, but is it enough to says fight you? >> you want to be sympathetic to management. they've been dealt a difficult hand. challenged has been for more than a decade now. ever since hank greenberg left. today was sort of a budgeting for mental news. generally positive. we don't think they went far enough. fundamentally the challenge -- this is a time for bold action. let me return to the $25 billion number in dividends and share buybacks. how easy it for to them -- how easy it is it for them to get
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the number? >> we thought they would nimble -- -- number. what they didn't do was choose to have a progressive path and massively simple by the firm. that's taking up a table one of the operational strategies. and they clearly focus on defending their status, which ultimately is an unusual position to be taken. is regulated by the said. >> the rate remains unchanged. the fed would like you to know they are watching things. they see with ucf ever but he can take a deep breath and stop freaking out. here is what they did. they changed their description of what they see in the economy. economic activity was expanding at a moderate rate. labor markets continue to improve. economic growth slowed at the end of last year. here is the key line which to address. we are closely monitoring global
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economic conditions in financial development, assessing the implications for the labor market and inflation and for the balance of risks. >> do we have an idea of how much the market -- china's problem, oil fall, are going to affect the overall outlook? >> i don't think we know yet. information is coming in every day. is maybe market relevant to the fed for what it does for wealth. and therefore for consumption. and a little bit about this investment spending. china is relevant for what it does for the whole world, not so much china per se. the chinese stock market is as close to irrelevant as you can get as far as the fed. amazon delivered its best earnings ever getting slammed in after-hours trading. they might have been hoping for more profits in the quarter.
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sales of $35.7 billion. these are not the kind of profitability that investors my default for at the end of the third quarter. >> that's right. if you look at the aftermarket, it looks more like ebay but the fundamentals are much different. they do not produce the same yield it had on the upside on that non-gap margin. it was up 60% ahead of analyst expectations. this december quarter it was at the top and. -- end. they had higher-than-expected unit growth. 26% adjusting for prime day in the september quarter was 24%. it didn't margins in the december quarter. cory: they made less because they sold the value? >> the anchor mental units that come at the very end are expensive for them to fulfill. they have put their own logistics to work.
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that cost of delivering it hurts them. >> this was a great quarter for amazon. it's just know what analysts were expecting. you are starting to see this people and and analyst for thinking once they showed a profit they will get going with a profit. amazon never really made that profit. bank of japan has just announced its latest policy direction. david: vote is five to four. also basically adopting a rate of .1%. they also cannot with forecasts for gdp for this year. 1.5%. that's supposed to be the nominal forecast for 2017 gdp forecast is point free percent -- .3%. and the timing when they can reach this 2% inflation target. >> the negative rating is the
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big shock. -- maybe it will force them to spend some of that. >> they are trying to mobilize the cash reserves sitting idle in the economy. you might be bank reserves with the boj for corporate cash reserves. there is risks that they pass on to sabres at some point. japan is a -- possiblyosed the idea -- i suppose the idea possibly. >> the other thing that is surprising is there are is isions that the bohj running into resistance buying bonds. it makes it harder for them to pry the bonds free from the banks who are holding these bonds and should sell them. it might make quantitative easing more easy -- difficult. betty: we will have more on
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♪ toty: welcome back "bloomberg best." some of the world's biggest companies reported quarterly earnings this week. how around it begins with apple which projected a drop in sales for the first time since 2003. they need those numbers concerns over softening demand in china. bloomberg tv asia take a deeper look. >> they are affected by the slowdown in china.
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right? >> absolutely. >> how big of a problem is that for apple? >> they are relying more and more on developing markets. china is the second largest market. it's everybody's second-largest market. we have always looked at china is being that little bit of a next her boost. certainly in the march quarter we of the chinese lunar new year. if the time of people go by presence for themselves or for a loved one. and companies giveaway presence. -- presents. we see this kind of austerity going on in china. the anticorruption drive. we don't want to throw money around in china or be seen as being too rich. there's a patriotic, nationalistic thing of buying chinese products. instead of western goods. last two years people have become very patriotic to their own goods. add in the economic pressure in
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china we are just turning to see. china is growing strong compared to the rest of the world with a slowdown in china is not good news. there are smaller impacting things. the housing cuts for the affluent this year. it's really hard to look at this quarter and see any positive signs of this year. if there is an upside, is that the facebook crushing fourth-quarter earnings as the company continues to rake in ad revenue from video, mobile and instagram. overall revenue was $5.8 billion, up 57% year-over-year. profits at $1.6 billion and nearly 120% year-over-year increase. what surprises you most about these numbers? >> i wouldn't say it surprises me but they are executing extremely well. the trend i am looking at is the growth and engagement and facebook as they shifted to mobile.
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in 2009 about half the people use facebook every month and every day. i never has got to 65%. now 90% of people who use facebook use it on their phone every month. only 10% only use it on the pc. >> what is their biggest challenge? everything looks great. what is the one thing they actually have to worry about? >> i see a lot of parallels to google and facebook. they have an amazing business and other trying to find the next huge business. google found things like android and a bunch of multibillion-dollar businesses. you can see that in facebook's investment. they are using this cash cow that is facebook and advertising network to look at ai and internet.org, oculus and virtual reality. right now it's interesting to see which of those play out and which of those turning to big businesses the company hopes they will be. >> visa europe's revenue to set a record, just in time for a planned sale to its parent company.
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more about its future plans is nicholas. >> i want to ask the broader question. we are living in a world of incredible financial tension. does i can reflected into anything you do? does it have a meaningful impact and what happens at your company? >> obviously everything impacts consumers. perspectiveayment we don't see that. it's just because we are winning over cash. i cap payments for visa are quite convenient for consumers. they use them more and more and therefore our numbers keep increasing. >> in terms of use of cash, moving towards the cashless society what is your monetary policy, sweden is a good example of a country that is quite far down the road. who else is close? nordics are almost
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cashless society's. and i think the uk's getting there. if you look at the huge growth of -- last year was really amazing. one in every seven transactions that is on face-to-face was contactless for visa. clearly there is a revolution and things are going on. win for alibaba this morning. of 32% increase in sales and net income at more than doubled. let's bring in paul kedrosky. take us to those numbers. >> the alibaba numbers in general, this is an exceedingly complex company. the closest comparable and its loose is a mix of paypal and amazon. you have of merchandising business, cloud services business and the payments
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business all caps up under the hood of this giant company called alibaba. the merchandising came in ahead of expectations. payment stood considerably better in the cloud services side of the business, which is small, was up more than 100%. in general it was a slight beat in terms of consensus. they are a difficult company to pull together in value given the moving parts. >> do you want to weigh in? cory: as a public company is very strange. their strategy towards the public market seems to be give us your money, but we don't know what we want to do with it. to come out of the gate with his huge ipo and turner emma slater it's a the market selloff -- we want to buy back shares. that shows a confusion about what they want to be in spite of its size and success they have had in the market they are in. the purchase of the south china morning post, forays in the hollywood, it seems further rather than thoughtful. -- furtive rather than bottle.
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-- thoughtful. have slippedares after missing earnings estimates for the fourth quarter because of slowing demand for high-end smartphones. net income came in at $2.7 billion. heidi is here to go to the numbers for us. we heard this from apple and now samsung. >> i don't think anyone is surprised. none of it is particularly optimistic. fourth-quarter net profit down 40%. $2.9 billion. expectations were about $4.5 billion. --s is nonsense presently unsurprisingly driven by the smartphone division. just an incredible decline. 31% decline in operating profit across the division. not only other not selling of their high-end models, those new galaxy models, but all of this
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while returning $25 billion to shareholders in the next two years. will this approach stave off interference from activist investor carl icahn? i asked the ceo about that plan. morningwe made up this is what we are going to do over the next two years to make this company more focused, more profitable and return 12 $5 billion to shareholders. that is speaking to all of our shareholders. all of our regulators. i'm sure we will not satisfy all of them, but we need to deliver a sustainable franchise differ going to make the right decisions for trading long-term versus short-term. betty: why not break of the company? is a much more focused company than it was before the financial crisis. we have focused it down to the essence of what can deliver value to our clients. our business is absorbing the risks of our client in managing them.
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we need to use diversification. diversification is critical. if you were to break of the company, you would is between $5 billion and $10 billion of diversification benefits at the minimum. betty: is it the tax assets? >> know would simply risk diversification. -- no, it is simply risk diversification. you have uncertainties balanced by the stable cash flows. from a tax perspective that's a further reason why splitting the company would be very expensive. we live is approximately $1.3 billion per year from tax credits if we split. cost we would incur. was influencing our role, that cost was is about a 10th of that. the tax benefit is roughly 10 times the cost of being -- that
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is not a reason. diversification is a much greater issue. betty: carl icahn and others would say that diversification has not worked. return on equity lags your peers. this new design you've unveiled this morning, is it going to bring you back to double-digit returns in equity? is helpwe have done people understand our return on equity by dividing it between the operating businesses and the legacy businesses. more than a quarter of the company -- company's capital is dedicated to legacy. we are in the business of exiting either through sale are gradual runoff. that hasn't -- has an roe between 3% and 5%. it's much more competitive and we have plans to make it very competitive. here competitors and desk in paris -- pure comparisons are
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much more important than aggregate numbers. after speaking at the new york stock exchange i sat in the series studio with a man who built aig, hank greenberg. i asked him what he thought about the direction the company is taking. what did you think of the plan? aboutgree with peter breaking it up and three companies. i think that's a mistake. to say it's too big to manage, it's a fraction of what aig was. betty: it is smaller than the company you ran. >> maybe by half. betty: the size is not the problem. >> it shouldn't be the problem. it sold off some of its best assets. aia, alico and others. it is as deep in the form field as it used to be. we were in 137 countries. but doinghere
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business and growing. betty: they are underperforming still. they are underperforming against their peers. these think today's plan went far enough? >> is not how far it went only. it's a question of how they will implement it and whether they can execute. all of that remains to be seen. betty: some critics have said you should separate. they are recommending to peter separate out the life and pnc. part of it has to do with the systemically important designation on aig. why not get rid of that the way that life is? -- metlife is? >> metlife is a different company. i think that is a mistake. having both classes of business gives you a better balance. one supports the other when one is a little soft.
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says. that's what hancock >> it's true. if you're running your business. in any event it seems that aig should be contesting the designation. they are half the size they were. why are they being held to the size they are no longer at? betty: is peter the right person for aig? >> he's going to have to prove he is. until he does, there's a question mark. betty: you are doubtful? >> i hope he does it. i would like to see aig regain some of the strength and statue it has. i don't see it yet. betty: have you talked to carl icahn at all? >> no. betty: and you don't agree with anything he has outlined? >> it does not make sense. i do not believe it makes sense.
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as a manager of the company, it makes no sense. betty: would you have interest of coming back to aig? >> no. i'm busy doing what i'm doing. i'm building a company and is doing quite well. i'm building star companies in the insurance field and they are doing quite well. betty: we will continue to cover this saga on bloomberg tv. here are some other business stories that caught our attention around the world this week. >> this is a big day for xerox. the company beat fourth-quarter profit forecasts and announce it is splitting into two different companies. one double-digit's hardware operations and another double house its services business. what brought you to this stage? what made you decide this was the best thing for your company? this is a big decision. to what extent with outside factors? >> it is a big decision for our company. it's a decision driven from
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analysis of what is happening in the market and what's happening around the world. what customers, investors and our employees are actually driven by. what is reported is his with german by mr. icahn. the board get its analysis and can do is conclusion without speaking to mr. icahn at all. when we did speak to him, is a large holder shares, he agreed with the outcome we reached. on a go forward basis he will be involved from a perspective of when the company splits into two separate companies, he will have some governance input into the services business. he will not be engaged with the document and technology business or current xerox business at all. i am pleased with the fact that we came out in a place that is strong for the business and it happened with -- to align with what mr. icahn wanted. >> saudi arabia is considering
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an ipo of saudi aramco. ryan joins us now with the details. a little bit of news this morning on this story. what is the latest? >> we've been hearing from the ceo at aramco. he said in the last hour a couple of interesting things on prices. the saudi's are not responsible for low prices. at the same time they are saying that saudi arabia will not cut production. as for the ipo he just said you're looking into options. one would be due selling up a stake in the downstream operations, code in the oil industry for refining. the other would be selling a stake in the parent company. both options are still on the table. he did throw a little bone to international investors saying if there is an ipo, they are looking at a couple of actions. not just on the saudi market itself, perhaps listing some of the shares outside of the kingdom. the big corporate story here
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is shell with shareholders rubberstamping the beg takeover. the question simmering in the background is hesitate to much given the 50% slump in the price of bread since the deal was announced last april. >> if oil prices remain where they are today, then shall will have to work very hard to make this acquisition function properly. probability prices will not stay with ar. -- where they are. we expect oil prices -- >> a breakeven rate of $60? >> that's when the deal was put together. i'm sure she'll would claim is a little lower than that. it's a long-term deal. things change the long-term. i think if we take a long-term view and shall is taking it, it will work. it might be harder than they think in the short-term. thatere is another merger
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is taking a well-known company to ireland. johnson control is combining with tyco and a multibillion-dollar deal. what this means for both companies and for politically, let's talk to jewel. -- joel. oel: it gives johnson control the ability to sell more. whether it security or protection are monitoring, they can add it to their rotten for folio. -- broadened portfolio. maybe it's 1% or 2%. m&a remains red-hot in the capital goods because you take out cost savings and build growth or cost savings over the next couple of years. those two items combined with the taxation's they will get are the main drivers of today's announcement. shut down all of
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its operations in japan and indonesia by the end of this year saying it is run out of options. is it about market share? gain about failing to sales in indonesia? >> certainly for ford that contributes to this decision. ford last year to cancel less than 5000 cars. they did roughly the same amount of sales in indonesia. in indonesia you have a situation where it's a market dominated by the japanese players. ford never really put a ton of investment into that market in terms of producing locally which has some impact. anjapan it's a matter of addition to struggling to gain market share, if the market that is expected to just structurally be in decline going forward. the writing was kind of on the wall for this move for ford. ♪
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♪ betty: welcome back. executives, economists and political figures showed a false this week on bloomberg television. the most interest in conversation starts with guy johnson's interview with the former finance minister of greece. >> is continuing to sink deeper into deeper into the debt spiral. if they miss this chance collectively, creditors, lenders, the european union and international monetary fund missed this opportunity to stabilize. what you're giving his alexis tsipras no chance? >> god and his angels cannot fix
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greece. >> god is not in charge, alexis tsipras is. >> if the angels were in charge given the constraints of this memorandum, it cannot be done. with a practical. -- let's be practical. can a broken economy demanded by pushing goods and services to the 22%? can we possibly fathom recovery when businesses small, medium and large were forced in the last couple of months to prepay 100% of the corporate tax return for 2016? you want to allow it to recover after eight long years of permanent recession by continuing putting drops and non-liquidity? >> i want to read one excerpt read discuss the direction, whether we can go up or down here from here on out.
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" the direction involves a restoration of high inclusive growth. the other road is one of even lower growth. persistently high unemployment and worsening inequality. there is equal probability of these two very different outcomes." say it's onlyd i an equal chance for either/or? >> believe me i would love to say it's going to be this or that. there simply is not evidence right now. i think the key issue for policymakers to realize is that the road we are on right now is going to end. central banks cannot borrow financial investment for the future. either we produce that through better policy response or we will have to give it all back. it's up to us. there is nothing predestined. what the book tries to set up his wife isn't this current road is sending -- ascending.
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betty: and why it's ending. >> the tensions are all around us. we are seeing my car -- markets become more volatile. we see economies respond less. we see political movements become more extreme. wherever you look the tensions are there. these are typically tensions with the regime that is ending. and we been a good year have delivered on everything we said when year ago we raised capital. >> the raising of capital is still the forefront of investors in the market. can you put that to rest? >> we will not raise more capital. the reason for that is this is published by the eba and we put out a press release where he said our cushion against the minimum is 280 basis points.
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that 16 billion euros. thend, we have increased target we set a year ago between 10 to 11. two september we committed to being above 11% by 2018. given the organic capital generation after funding growth, we are comfortable we can achieve the target of being above 11%. that puts us in a place where we a good management buffer against what we believe will be the minimum. >> as you look at the democratic race what you see? >> i think iowa is going to be very close. i think my suspicion is that bernie sanders'expectations have risen. he's probably the one announced to win it. i think hillary clinton will be strong in all 99 counties.
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i think she will be strong throughout the state. i think bernie sanders has run a great campaign. outside strengths in places like johnson and story county. march 15 is probably separation tuesday. i think bernie sanders will have to win a lot of states up to that point. you got florida, ohio, north carolina, missouri. the big states. it's hard to see a scenario where hillary clinton, even if he stumbles in iowa and new hampshire, doesn't secure the nomination. you need investors to believe in your company in order for your -- >> investors will believe in your company when the facts -- the trailing fax, and they have to trail for a while, particularly if you have been in the barrel. that's the new word. frump and trump together.
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if that happens, it takes time. facts will tell. stephanie: unless you are amazon in the investors believe in you. >> the facts of amazon are astounding. from the very first hour of the first day, what amazon and jeff bezos said was we are going to build infrastructure to serve customers. and we don't care about anything else. it's an endless period of investment. i will make you a little prediction. jeff bezos with the richest person in the world within i don't know, certainly within 5-7 years. a serious talkp, in a serious subject. could turmoil in the markets be the sign of the coming recession? a range of perspectives straight ahead. ♪
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♪ betty: you are watching "bloomberg best." could today's market volatility become tomorrow's financial crisis? there is plenty of concern but not a lot of consensus among economists and investors. bloomberg television examined the question, if the u.s. economy recession-bound? scarletust heard outlined a profit-recession scenario. could it be to an economic recession? >> the economy leads to the recession. if you take that energy, we would see that profit decline. energy is a big plunger in terms of the supply side. the definition of a recession is not to negative quarters of gdp.
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they would tell you its production decline. it is employment decline and income declined. human beings are making more money. we have job growth. even of the manufacturing data, it's droppedt but below 50 or reached 5014 times and 1990. 11 of those times did not become recessions. three times did. 11 these three finals four to one ratio. if you want to have a negative narrative, it's really easy. point toion watchers weak manufacturing as a potential trigger for downturn. the manufacturing indexes below 50 indicating contraction. the report shows a biggest drop in 10 months. . it doesn't help >> it's not widely dispersed. if you live in the subgroups and ,ll the different categories
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only five of the 27th categories are actually down year-over-year. to see it in a broad-based way. that does not appear to be the case right now. the gap between services in manufacturing illustrate how wide it has been. thisong has this -- is kind of gap sustainable? >> and three quarters we will be talking about service sector slowdown and manufacture recovery. >> meet in the middle? >> it's one of the things where recession is not recession unless it is built into the labor market. >> if you look at all the consumer confidence measures, they all seem to be holding up. the big question is how long can that last and when my payroll over? >> one of the tricks is you don't need to see it reaching
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new highs everything a released to be indicative of an expansion or late expansion economy. a lateabsolutely in expansion economy regardless of whether we are close to recession or not. you do not see an economy that is on the precipice of recession or entering a recession have a look at our confidence number's. consumer, --o say actual consumer spending, retail sales were eh. -- was theg to see prospect for actual spending? >> retail sales is tricky because it's measured in nominal dollars. real spending looks much more robust. it does not look like it is going gang busters. we wouldn't expect it to. we also don't see the kind of demand collapse you see in real terms on the way into a recession as we have in the past. offt's easy to write
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weakness in china has weakness in china. a lot of our exports don't go there. when china's intervention with the u.n. and stock market volatility does have a negative feedback loop to the u.s.. isthe big feedback loop related to commodities and oil and the effects to high-heeled credit. i think the question for the us economy is is this high-heeled problem something which is going to be just curtailed to a high-heeled story or is this only to be mainstream in terms of a credit problem? so far you are seeing the credit problem being quite contained. if that changes, there is something different going on here. if investment-grade credit gets infected as well, that is a problem. >> the positive recession? >> flip a coin. 40%. >> but you said you cares.
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-- who cares? competitiven other currencies raise, that's what you care about? >> we had a real recovery of until 2013. it was very tepid but it was a recovery. that was a recovery in our current accounts deficit. we saw a huge benefit from energy because we no longer in 40 much energy. and certainly within a couple of years we will not be importing any. as a practical matter the deficit and never thing else increased very substantially over the last year. we are looking out chart account deficit levels for the editing of category that is equivalent to wear was at the height of the bubble and that's a big problem. >> i'm not saying we will never have a recession. current data is not support the idea of a recession. there's no inverted yield curve.
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♪ betty: as we wrap up this edition let's take a look at some of the charts that told the story of the weekend business -- week in business/ pink white and outlined in is that brent crude price. i put the wto-paint to show you they track perfectly. the blue lines are opec's output. saudi arabia will continue pumping capital into the wells in bringing oil out of the ground. it declines because this is the department of energy forecasts are opec output. you can see when oil fell first in 2008 and 2009. they cut their output can miserably.
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-- they have does that every time there is a price in the drop of oil except for now. now we see coming down to record levels and wti as well in the last 12 years. they continue to pump out more which is interesting. it's obviously the reason you have the big fall. i have a surprise element in this chart. that is this green line. in the second dragon rearing its ugly head over the chart. this green minus saudi arabia's foreign-exchange reserves. a lot of noise has been made about this -- the kingdom is running out of money. that is hogwash. going back 10 years it just climbs up and up. $100 million debt but they still billion in$700 foreign exchange reserves. they can afford to do this much longer. >> what is going on with european and u.s. bank stocks? that's the big question opposing today. banks in europe are the worst
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performing industry group. this is a year-to-date chart. i have normalized it at 100. any number below 100 is a negative figure. the stock 600 bank index sees greenline is down by 15% this year. 183 billion euros. it's on track for his worth months since august 2001. only one bank stock is risen. i would give you so much money if you guess. i won't even waste my breath. it's commercial bank of the czech republic. i can't waste time with you thinking. [laughter] >> commercial bank of the czech republic. european investment banks of and pummeled by deutsche bank. they've been up in revenues and tougher financial regulations and rising costs. why.'t need to tell you
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an italian bank is followed by 42%. european banks are valued at nine times estimated earnings which is the lowest since the summer of 2012. what about financials in the united states? they are on track for the worst month in four years. the index is followed by 11% this year. the second worst monthly performance since 1990. last month investors were oldish on u.s. -- bullish on u.s. financials. we know what has changed. slower economic growth concern, fewer rate hike concerns, bleeding from the energy sector and revising down the forecast for earnings from this industry as well. the u.s. financials are valued at 12.8 times earnings, you're the lowest in the last three years. the question is is a time to buy? ♪ betty: that is offer this
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