invest and so forth. but it actually doesn't make sense. what is good for the poor's employment, and that is a goal is employment, and that is a goal of ours and a goal we succeeded in dealing with very strongly, and the american economy succeeded in dealing with strongly. we have close to full employment at the moment. we are in the vicinity. and that is an achievement of thatthe monetary policy has been followed. in speakingeeded about the next meeting. could we go out to meetings? thank you, everyone. [applause] >> that was tom keene's interview with vice chairman fisher. good afternoon. i am david gora, and this is

"bloomberg markets." let's bring in tom mckie. >> he did not bury the lead at all. in his opening statement, he addressed the market volatility we have seen. he said look, we don't know if this is going to produce a global recession that will impact the united states or not. in the past, we have seen not amountthat did to any impact on the u.s.. see.ve to wait and then he immediately pivoted to the question of what does that mean for rising interest rates? here is what he had to say. mr. fischer: i cannot answer that question, because, as i have emphasized in the past, we simply do not know. the world is an uncertain place,

makers monetary policy can really be sure of is that what will happen is often different from what we currently expect. that is why the committee has repeatedly indicated that its policy decisions will be dated dependent. is, we will adjust policy appropriately in light of economic and financial events to best foster conditions consistent with the attainment of our employment and inflation objectives. michael: that was a point he kept coming back to. we are watching the data, watching the data. he kept pushing back on the idea that the fed was expected to raise rates four times this year. he said we do not get together and decide how many times to raise rates. we look at the charts and anticipate when it might work out, but as the fact change, we -- facts change, we change.

our colleagues were asking quite a bit about oil. you got a shout out as well. background as an academic economist at m.i.t. and he went back to the 1970's and the oil prices we saw back then. michael: the history of oil is one of booms and busts. the fed is treating this as another in a long cycle. a lot of people at this point is saying this is a -- are saying but is a demand shortfall, he is saying it is oversupply. supply will come back in balance and the fed cannot make policy based on a cyclical indicator like that. we talked about volatility and oil. although i ought -- obviously, that has been on the minds of a lot of people, what we have seen

in asia as well. negative interest rates were addressed. michael: he talked about negative interest rates and he said we have had five central banks go to negative interest rates and they are working better than i thought they would. negative interest rates were always an academic concept. they had not really been tried on a long-term basis. we are a long way from the fed meeting to do extraordinary policy, but if we were in that extraordinary situation, maybe it is something they would look at. david: somebody in the audience was curious about the way in which the fed was communicating with other central banks around the world. they brought up china as an example of that. is a robust line of communication between central bankers. michael: they meet every other month in switzerland. they exchange views. he said we can pick up the phone

anytime and call somebody. kind of the point of that question. he noted the chinese are making the policy changes the world wants them to make, especially in foreign exchange. that does not always go smoothly, but he said he is confident we will get to a system that works. he seems like -- to kind of like,all up -- he seemed to wrap it all up, yes, there is volatility, but he is not worried at this point. david: that was stan fisher's speech on foreign currency relations, and his interview with tom keene to follow up. --es we have seen mark >> we have seen markets come off their session lows. the s&p 500 is down only about

.3%. the dow is down about .4%. we had seen the dow down about 160. we have shaved off about 100 points from the low early this morning. the nasdaq is down about .2%. a couple of things affecting markets, china's manufacturing index, which came in at a u.s.-year low, and personal spending coming in flat for december. a nether weight has been crude. let's take a look at that. it is off its lows right now. by 5.8%. we saw this earlier read here, right before the 2 p.m. mark, , 6.93%.its lowest but we are seeing it break a four-day winning streak from last week, not just a four-day winning streak, but also continuing a bunch of losses that have been happening over the last four months.

hop into my bloomberg and take a look at the seasonality chart. this is the function on your own bloomberg. address your attention to quatro blocks. from november-december, january, and now february, four straight months of decline. today, -5%. toll, andl taking a the price definitely coming down. david: energy is really weighing on the averages today. of the bige some names, chevron and a on making up some of the biggest weights on the s&p sector. chevron down 1.6 are sent. exxon, 2.2%. down 1.6 percent. exxon, 2.2%. year to date, all of these are down except for kendra morgan.

switching gears from oil, i do want to take a look at utilities. at least one of them is going the other way. duke energy up i 2.7%. this after lockheed martin said it signed a deal to buy solar power from duke, 30 megawatts from a solar farm in north carolina for the next 17 years. the largest piece of the mississippi. interesting. wants to reduce greenhouse gas omissions by one third by 2020. research is the buyer for questar corporation. dominion wants to expand its holdings in natural gas. is down 20% -- natural gas down 20% over the last year or so, versus oil, which is down

one third. david: mark crumpton has the headlines from the news desk. mark: tonight, the speeches will stop and the voting will begin. iowans will make the first official statement of the 2016 presidential campaign. they will attend nearly 1700 caucus sites to pick a nominee. hillary clinton are leading in the polls. mrs. clinton is telling voters she can do what she is promising. mrs. clinton: to stand up for someone who can be president, be commander in chief, take the fight to the republicans, and then, after we win, unite the country to actually get some things done for america. million washan $150 spent on political ads to reach iowans. we will preview the caucuses live from des moines on a

special edition of "all do respect," beginning at 5:00 p.m. new york time. bombing basediple on islamic state has killed at least 45 people. the attack occurred one day before peace talks were scheduled to get underway in geneva. expectations are low. not be sides will negotiating directly with each other. the world health organization has declared that the spread of in the americas is an international emergency. world health organization last a claritin emergency over the 2014 ebola outbreak. -- last declared an emergency over the 2014 ebola outbreak. standoffrs of an armed a wildlife reserve

are petitioning to be released prior to their trial. bowie has left his estate to his widow, the supermodel mom iman. the rock icon died of cancer last month at the age of 69. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. up in the next half hour of bloomberg markets, will trump and clinton prevail? first the in store? we check with the team in des .oines manufacturing data out of china

caused the recent oil rally to grind to a halt. wrap up today's commodities close. all that and more coming up on "bloomberg markets." ♪

david: welcome back. time for your bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. ichan is proposing a list of possible board members next week.

he did not identify specific candidates. the national football league games betweening three networks, cbs, nbc, and the nfl network. cbs will air five thursday thehes in 2017, increasing games from eight-10 per season. nfl will still televise games latesively, including season matchups and other to be determined games. let's check on the markets, starting with some news about lumber liquidators. >> take a look at what is happening with the stock. nearly 4%. earlier today, it was up nearly 17%. there was some volatility before

trading halted. it came to a $10 million plea .eal you might remember lumber liquidators pled guilty to something called the lacey act, the first time a major u.s. --pany was found guilty for get this -- smuggling would into the country. looking ahead, chipotle mexican grill is on the rise right now. the question is whether e. coli is a thing of the past. the cdc, it is. chipotle on the rise right now. bankamerica merrill lynch has upgraded the stock to neutral. hundreds of people did get sick. 20 or so were hospitalized. we will be looking ahead to fourth-quarter earnings that come out tomorrow.

another stock on the rise is herbal life. nearly at session highs. we saw it pop around 2:00 p.m. it is up around 3%. this is the biggest jump since november after the wall street journal reported that two probes have fallen apart because there is not enough evidence. one involves bill ackman saying herbalife has a business model based on fraud and the other involves herbalife saying bill ackman and pershing square manipulated the stock price. the court is saying there is no proof, but either case could be reopened. ahead, voters in iowa head to their caucus sites to pick their presidential preferences. will donald trump cash in on his lead in the polls? we are live from des moines. ♪

david: you are looking at a live a rally for donald trump in cedar rapids. trump is not there yet, but he is making his final pitch to voters in iowa ahead of tonight's caucuses. "bloombergching markets" on bloomberg television. i david gora. the race for the white house has .een leading up to today hillary clinton is leading bernie sanders by 3%, which is in the margin of error. on the republican side, donald trump has a five point advantage over ted cruz. john heilemann joins us from des moines. what is going to make a difference here? when you look at iowa and the past caucuses, what are candidates doing on the closing day to make their case? ,ohn: they are running around

trying to get their faces in front of as many voters as they can. they are doing their last rallies, last caucus organizing events, trying to make their cases. but really, the last full day of campaigning was yesterday. a workday so the ability to put yourself in front of caucus voters on caucus day is limited. you have two unconventional candidates, donald trump and bernie sanders. one is in the lead. the other, narrowly behind, in the case of bernie sanders. big are both relying on turnouts and big turnouts of first time caucus-goers. if you have a big night in iowa, with a turnout constituted in that way, trump is likely to win, and there is a possibility that sanders could close the gap and beat hillary clinton. if you have a smaller turnout

with more reliable caucus-goers, that will give an advantage to ted cruz and hillary clinton. david: me ask you about what we learned from the pole. aboutis a great piece voters who favor the strength of conservatives them versus the p are any of conservatism. how is that playing out? john: there are two different pitches being made by donald trump and ted cruz. pitch to republican voters is not about ideological or it he. everyone knows that over the course of his lifetime, trump has held many liberal positions. he has changed on a variety of issues, including social issues, and economic issues. a doctrinaire by any means. he is saying he's going to lead through strength, dominate, force congress to do what he once, lead through sheer --

sheer forcethrough of will. ted cruz is saying donald trump cannot be trusted to carry the banner of conservatism because he has not always been a conservative and is not really a conservative in many ways today. the question, again, is what is the composition of the republican electorate tonight and how much do those things to voters when it comes time to cast the ballot? ramy: you met -- david: you mentioned that yesterday was a big day of campaigning. here is what donald trump had to say. mr. trump: i don't have to win it. you and i are sitting in new hampshire and as you know i have a substantial lead in new hampshire. i would like to win iowa. im doing well with evangelicals in iowa, but i am also doing well all over the country with evangelicals. how badly does donald

trump need to win iowa? need donald trump does not to win iowa. i think it would be super helpful for him. the other day ted cruz, speaking for a group of pastors, not knowing he was being recorded, said basically, look, if donald trump wins iowa, he is already he ahead in new hampshire, may be unstoppable if he wins expected,hampshire as and then moves on to south carolina with a full head of steam. it's hard not to imagine a then in which he would not be the nominee, but it's a pretty far-fetched scenario. trump is capable of surviving a second-place finish here. ted cruz may not be because of the fact that he was in first place in the state as recently as three or four weeks ago in a

lot of polling, including ours. this is the state in which he is probably strongest of the early states. if you were to come in second tonight, a lot of stories will be written about how ted cruz ew iowa, and that is not the narrative you want. it would be a much more severe blow to him than it would be to trump. to democratsg quickly. hillary clinton saying she wants to be the president for the struggling, this -- the striving, the successful. a lot of alliteration. what is she doing to draw the distinction between her and bernie sanders? john: basically exactly that. is a lotying there voters like in bernie sanders and me. we are both progressive. we both care about fundamental democratic principles. but i am the candidate who can get things done. i will preserve obamacare,

preserve dodd-frank. i am not the pie-in-the-sky candidate. bernie sanders ones are unachievable. we need progress today, not progress that is a pipe dream, and even if it is a pipe dream, it would be decades down the line. sanders is a good man and i share a lot of his goals, but he is dreaming if he thinks he can actually make them happen . david: thank you very much. that is john heilemann joining us from iowa. he will be back later today with a special two-hour edition of "all due respect." ♪

♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this is bloomberg markets. mark crumpton has more from our

news desk. the presidential nominating season kicks off in iowa. more than 1700 caucus sites to nominees.h for republicans favoring donald trump and hillary clinton is leading the democrats that senator bernie sanders is not far behind. mr. sanders: you want a radical idea? we will create an economy that works for all of us and not just the 1%. [applause] the democrats have 44 delegates at stake and republicans have 30. bloomberg will preview the caucuses live from des moines. a special edition with mark halperin and john heilemann beginning at 5:00 p.m. new -- new york time. the republican front-runner donald trump spent more than six point $8 million in the fourth quarter of 2015, less than half of what ted cruz spent.

in total, trump has taken more than $13 million in campaign funds. came in the money form of a personal loan from the candidate himself toward the end of last year. are proposingials a five-part strategy to determine whether flint's water is safe to drink. the plan includes residential testing,ting, school blood testing, and overall valuation of the water distribution system. in an attempt to save money, flint switched its water source to the flint river. clarence thomas is close to milestone. it has been close to 10 years since justice thomas has asked a

question from the bench. years been at least 45 since any other justice has gone even a single term without asking a question. news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in 150 news outlets around the world. david: let's start with a look at the bloomberg commodity index. week, the2.6% last most since october. showing worse since chinese manufacturing contributed to the selloff but the slow off will spread. the decline ofg prices are down over 12 present since the beginning of 2016, closing at $34 per barrel. the former commissioner of the trade commission says he is worried about falling prices. he joins us from washington. to drop thisected

year by 600 million barrels per day. nuclear deal,an they can make it up in a heartbeat here within a matter or -- of months. day.lion barrels per opec is saying they do not want to curtail output and they're looking to the rest of the world. venezuela and the u.s. and stopl and russia to production. impact oned about the the economy in general. average gas price right now is 179 per gallon nationwide. it is having an impact in the oil patch. it is drowning the economy and that has got me concerned. >> what about in the commodities market where we have seen incredible volatility. do you think it is almost

destroying structure? >> you rely on the actual exchanges. in this case, nymex and then overseas on europe with the brent contract. you rely on exchanges and you toe circuit rakers in place avoid these crazy highs and lows. as we have seen today, we thought it was stabilizing at the $32 range but it is already down 5% on the day. it reminds me of the old aerosmith song, living on the edge. fromannot help yourself falling. some of us hope it stabilizes soon. >> what about other commodity market is? already related. too often, people do not

understand that. prices will impact. it will reduce the price of those commodities. all of this is a balancing act. we have seen a rough riders for commodities for a couple of years now and some people have said, is that a precursor to another re-session. is usually commodities are trailing behind and other bubbles are in the commodities. while i am concerned about the roller coaster we have seen in the last several years particularly on oil in the last couple of months, i remain confident and remain optimistic about the economy. living on the edge of little bit. the former commissioner of the csd's -- coming up, in crisis, of financial

back in the spotlight again with u.s. regulators taking aim on foreign banks. google reported earnings for the first time, alphabets. breaking up costs like the report. 500 down about .2%. 1%.nasdaq down 1/10 of this is bloomberg markets on bloomberg television.

david: they misled investors on how they managed private trading platforms. these cases marked the first major victory in dark for -- trading. for more, i want to being an -- bring in the cofounder and ceo joining us today from boston. just put today's settlement tra. in context. a big day when it comes to policing the dark pools. how big a day is it? >> those are the largest settlements we have seen in the space. it solidifies some of the things talked about on the barclays complaint and opened of a couple of new things on the credit suisse side and sends off a warning to all the other providers out there that they had better be following the rules exactly.

they better not be anything funky going on or they will get ready heavily fined. >> for people not familiar, them you have read about what have we learned about how they are operating? >> i do not want to get into too much detail when you see an offer, these tools do not show any information. haver investors generally large orders in them. then they try to match up against them so the larger order does not leak any information. some of the challenges rely on who had access, communications exchanges, brokers,

-- the clientsls and how they operate. marketed actually operator that way. >> the fcc joining the settlement as well. enforcementt recent actions involving dark full as another alternative trading system, they will continue to shed light and protect investors. what does the regulatory landscape look right now? how robust is the regulatory method now? >> they are becoming more heavily regulated. generally under the filings, historically, the filings have in secret. when we start trying to track volumes 10 or 15 years ago, the

fcc would not even tell us which dark holes are even register. wasthe information confidential. that information is increasingly being pushed out into the light. proposalushed out a which goes into hundreds of questions they have to answer. we are starting to see a lot greater transparency and i think that is a good thing. the operators need to be sure they are operating very specifically and exactly by the and that thet out rules are fair. >> i wonder if you could characterize the growth of this specific space. how much has equities trading's been involved in dark pulls? >> we have not seen a tremendous growth in the last four or five years. 2004started coming out in

and 2005. at that point in time, they are basically zero. they are about 15 percent now. 14 or 15%. david: thank you for joining us today from boston. let's take a look. the stock jumped. e. coli outbreak investigation. really remarkable when you look at the stock market here. a neural virus outbreak and finally the subpoena outbreak. really diminishing over the last clutch oh or five months. >> it is amazing.

way down to 404, it wiped out 10 million in market value. it hit them very hard. that, there is some sense this is a signpost. i think they would have .referred they allow them to start the recovery. >> there might be people who are still wondering what happened and how this was not caught for so long. collects in this case, they steered toward it all long. moving out of restaurants very quickly and it is very tough to track.

it was tomatoes and lettuce. the big thing here for investors are nolly is that there more coming. it is remarkable for the last couple of months. headlines, the stock just went down and down. major headlines out of the way now for aaa. david: we know chipotle will close its doors for a few hours to communicate to employees where things stand. is there a sense that that will be effective? >> it is mixed. it has gotten attention to the fact that they would close these restaurants down a couple of days. when they need -- made the announcement, there was a feeling they would not without the cdc. now the cbc piece is in place. the middle of in february they would, with marketing. there is a sense they will do a push. something to get the loyal customers back in and then go back out and get new customers.

it is a long road. some analysts say could be a couple of quarters of down sales. the first one will be when they report tomorrow for the first quarter. they came out and said that sales were down almost 15 percent for the fourth quarter. first time ever as a public company. the number is out there so to speak. we are looking for any indication of how january went to chipotle was known when they reported their number, they gave a little bit on how the first month of the quarter went. recovery is further along and sales are down 5% in january. if there is some sense this will take hold, that would be a big boost for them. >> thank you so much, craig. time now for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now.

new speculation of who will be the next ceo at bp. the deputy ceo, putting him in line is bob dudley, current chief. he runs the company's exploration businesses. isrto rico's government seeking bond -- nearly $27 billion. it would cap debt payments and government faces more than $33 billion in debt payments in the next decade and warns that it does not have enough money. a struggling electronics maker will start with competing bailout offers this week. offering more money, sharp is leaning toward a deal. bloomberg business flash update or let's head to the market desk where raimi has the latest.

i am looking at company movements and they are in the health care sector. aetna is up 1.8%. comingquarter earnings in versus the highest estimate. by about 2%n higher or so. the ceo says he has serious concerns about whether or not obamacare's new markets are sustainable. -- echoingy criticism from top profit insurers. is going theth other way. 2%. it also beat its profit as well as revenue. second-quarter earnings coming in at $326 million. the share price is down because it raised its 2016 revenue

forecast. margins to fall. they are both on the nasdaq. that is up by one point 2%. a couple of things are factoring in here. areuehanna and wells fargo bullish on the stock. paid search checks suggest solid trends on the back of strong and mobile spending. wells fargo saying they will pay attention on whether management will give them a 2016 full-year forecast. over to mattel. down 2.8 other way percent but paring losses from earlier. this was early, the biggest since october. with amazon to perform four live-action specials for a franchise for mattel's american girl.

i do not know anything about this. you have one but maybe she is too old. david: thank you. coming up, apple started the day with a bigger market cap been out for that. will today's earnings change that? we will break that all down with emily chang. ♪

david: welcome back. google's parent company off that, shares -- shares of alphabet are up.

we are seeing that now. 4.8% rise in google. to parity.hose something to take note as we get into earnings. are you said it best. at the end of the day, google or alphabet could be a more valuable company by market cap than apple. what is most important to know today is for the first time ever, they will break out their moon shots from a core part of google business. is thisl happen today is the first time out for that is reporting as alphabet. operating revenue income and all the same metrics for other bets. other bets include google fiber, calico, google ventures, google

a googleare really, or life sciences or they will not break out individual moon shots individually but they will live in their own category, -- mostoking at that, what is exciting? how much they are bringing in? bringing bulk of the money for google. >> this is the first time we will see how profitable google's core search business really is. it is difficult. we are getting a lot of clarity about how much they are spending on his other bets. some analysts are excited about this and some are saying it will not prevent them from spending any less than they do. then there profit significantly expands. cfo,u know, the ceo -- the

the stock has been rising since she took over. we are now getting new breakouts today. there is a lot of optimism she will crew -- control costs. will be a lot more transparent about what the costs actually are. another story you have been following come a report that partners might be interested in twitter. saying they have no interest in buying twitter. talk about what it could mean earlier today. emily: twitter shares have lost one third of their value since jack dorsey took over last fall. there has been a lot of speculation about what happens next. is it an acquisition or a private equity deal? mark, a huge fan of twitter, might be interested in doing a some equity in twitter with a private equity firm, something similar to what he did

with skype. the stock did pop today on the potential of this. it has come back down by the bottom line is speculative -- speculation continues. twitter report earnings on february 10. we do not expect a difference in use their growth or engagement. >> thank you. coming up in the next hour, imax'ceo talks to us about its new partnership with the big success of kung fu panda three. ♪

>> it is 3:00 p.m. in new york. welcome to bloomberg market.

stocks are definitely paring their losses after vice-chairman stanley fischer's says policymakers are not decided about what they should do in the next meeting in march. we will have more with tom keene. hours away from the first vote of the 2016 presidential elections as voters in iowa head .o their caucus site can donald trump and hillary clinton finish in iowa? speak about a company's's new partnership with discovery. kung fu panda three set and imax record this weekend for an animated title.