john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. and with all due respect to iowa soft sell -- >> if you're sick, your doctor says you can't leave your bed, it doesn't matter -- get up and caucus. get up and caucus. here at the des moines marriott downtown for our special bloomberg politics coverage. are takingg, iowans part in the quadrennial tradition of caucusing. the candidates and the campaigns in many cases have spent years

preparing for this moment, but as always, the last 72 hours have been a frenetic sprint to the finish line. john and i spent part of yesterday traversing the state to see the closing arguments of the front runners, hillary clinton and donald trump, whose private jets shared the same runway. this evening, we will break down the races with several campaign operatives. but let's start with where things stand on the republican side. our final bloomberg politics/ "des moines register" poll shows 28%. now leads marco rubio is in third, ben fourth.in

we will talk about it later with our pollster, but now at this moment, what is the state of the republican race tonight? john: look, this is still a very close race. if you read margin of error, these guys are within it. trump went down, cruz went up, cruz would be in first place. turnout always matters. what is the composition of the electorate? how many people turnout? -en we released the poll - if turnout is small, and evangelicals turnout in large numbers, ted cruz could win the iowa caucuses despite all of trump's strength. mark: if either cruz pummeled or trump -- and marco rubio moves up. it could be a cluster at one, two, and three, which would have huge applications. john: we will talk later about the expectations game. the truth is that ted cruz has so much riding on this.

he's banked so much on the state, and there was a perception that ted cruz had victory within his grasp. if trump wins tonight, there will be stories written immediately how ted cruz blue iowa. that is a bad storyline to be storylineand it's a that could leave him irreparably damaged going forward, despite all his money and strength. mark: neither man would look good dead if they lose, but trump can much more afford a loss. the only person who can come out of here tonight on the republican side with momentum is, potentially, marco rubio. john: especially if all the other establishment candidates are down below 5%. in that same poll, we had bernie sanders closing the gap with hillary clinton, who was once the clear favorite. she is now leading the race by a statistically insignificant margin, 45% at 42%.

mark, the same question -- at this moment, not just based on the pulloll, but your fingertip feel, the time we spent seeing them, where stands the democratic race? mark: if you look at the normal measures in terms of organize, organize, organize, sanders seems to still be the hotter candidate. his crowds are bigger, they are more fired up. they're more engaged in a movement rather than a perfunctory performance of civic response ability. hillary clinton, the event we were at, i did not think was her strongest speech. but she still has organization, and the people supporting her are more likely to turn out and caucus. john: last night, her last event of the night was the best of h ers, and it was an impressive by any measure. mark: except the turnout. john: it was reasonably good-sized, but still smaller

than many of bernie sanders's events. that was her best night. i thought the results of the poll were good for both of them. up by a guest saying couple points was where he wanted to be, so he didn't have to worry about being behind. from offenders point of you, you can see he was happy to be three down. said we came and from 40 back to within the margin of error, one last push. that's the kind of thing that can push people. mark: i think the chances of survival bettel are better than you think, but he needs to be within a couple points. and how you perform on election night matters. how you frame the outcome. uch harder for him to come back with a loss that for her. john: one thing we were both struck by -- the $20 million he's raised. he can be a thorn in her side for months. mark: conventional wisdom is

there are two candidates in this race if there's a high turnout. on the republican side, it's donald trump, who released this rallying cry video on facebook today. >> i want you to get out and vote, because if you don't vote, what we have done -- and this is a movement, a big, big movement -- that the whole world is talking about -- they say they have never seen anything like this in the history of our country. changing our government and changing our grossly incompetent leaders starts today, in iowa. mark: at a campaign rally this afternoon, he brought onto the stage his wife. >> hello, iowa. this is a very special night, and you're voting for your next president. you,an who will work for who will work with you, and who

si tis that man? i agree. he's the man. good luck. thank you. mark: so john, it's a question people have been asking for month, and today it comes to the fore more than ever. does mr. trump have the ground game that can deliver a victory? john: in the entire history of the show, i have never said this -- only time will tell. they have a real ground game. it is real, it is staffed by solid operatives. they are also trying to do something that is the hardest to do, to get people who haven't caucused caucus for the first time, for very untraditional candidate. the level of enthusiasm to overcome a slightly inferior ground game may be the story of the night. mark: they certainly don't have the network that ted cruz has. they certainly don't have the

luxury of bringing people to the caucuses in a been there before. but i think they have sick we build something bigger then they have let on. aren't going to know until a few hours. if they end up matching the kind of numbers and our poll, a lot o f people who have been dubious will have to eat a lot of crud -- mark: the decision was not an uncontroversial one. but donald trump is competitive, but they know if they win this state -- john: he's on pace for the jugular. mark: he may get it. john: on the democratic side, bernie sanders has been saying turnout onhat if the the democratic side blows the roof off, he will win. according to our poll, however, it looks like one third of democratic caucus goers will be

first-timers, which is about half of 2008. meter image question -- whether sanders's ground game is good enough to convert the ground game into a victory. mark: i don't think it is his a biggest. people have people with different functions in every part of the state and he doesn't have that. but i think it is big enough to harness the enthusiasm in every other way. social media is quite effective to close the gap. i think his organization is big enough to do this. the question will be, can they get the college kids to caucus home, and can they get first time people to go caucus. john: the thing that is true about both of these operations, neither one is a full, broad gauge turnout, which is smart. they built their turnout operations to maximize their vote. the sanders turnout is nothing

one, bute the clinton it is working on the snapchat angle, doing things with college students, and even high school students. they may be able, just by targeting in that precise way, right to the heat of their vote. mark: they have also gotten organize, organize, organize. they still have a lot of motion. the television ads, his performance at the rallies, they do have a motion. that can supercharger turnout. john: all right. coming up -- radiotwo great reporters, iowa opening up their notebooks and sharing with all of us. after that, the clinton campaign. all that coming up right here, after this word from our sponsors. ♪

john: joining us now, two from the finest political journalists in the world. ls, chiefable dan ba corresponded to "the washington post," and ok henderson, director of radio iowa. guys, we're going to talk about stuff. we talked about the final poll and we want to go back and look at some things from that pull and get your thoughts. i know you have been marinating in that information, so let's put up this first graphic, which

is about as good as any graphic we have. republican first time trump.goers, cruz versus let's take a look --a we don't. donald trump -- there it is. donald trump is holding 35%, ted cruz at 19%. what does that mean for this race. >> it means he has to get his people out. it means he has to produce a turnout bigger than normal. it means he has to do it through unconventional means, because we have not been able yet to see his ground game in the way we have looked at others. mark: the truck campaign has not been totally transparent. >> it is a different kind of campaign. mark: they have not answered questions. and anecdotally, i'm sure you hear what we hear -- lots of calls, really aggressive advance, and other times people

say they aren't aggressive, and half the people have no tristan going to caucus for anybody. do they have a sophisticated operation or is it spotty? >> time will tell. is that what i'm supposed to say? [laughter] make the case that they have a great operation. what are the signs? >> i have had people on the democratic side who signed up to go to their organizational meetings, and they are data mining to a degree that is more sophisticated than obama 2012, according to my sources. two, you go to the event,what a? >> i have had people on the democratic wade into the crowd, it's an interesting mix of people. a ron pauley wila rand paul precinct captain from last time. it's an interesting group of people that he is attracting. the question is, we are all

sitting here wondering, is he going to get those people to turn out? i talked to people who are peopleime caucus-goers, who last went to a caucus in the 1990's, and he's the first candidate who has really addressed the issues in a way that they would like to caucus again. mark: conventional wisdom is that cruz is not strong. is it true, or is he hanging on? >> i think it is entirely possible that it is overstated. i always say that because people tend to to latch onto something that it might be right and then it gets magnified, in the same way that people say rubio has a a lot of momentum. cruz people are banking on what they have always been banking on, which is that he's organized that part of the constituency, which played a dominant role in past caucuses.

john: the democratic side of the first-time caucus-goers -- the striking number from the poll, 34% would be first time caucus-goers. first-time% were caucus-goers. but does similar feel, this not suggest that those of them wildly overstated? democratu look at 2008, voter registration is about twice as many democrats as turned out. there's no evidence that either campaign is turning out in registering new voters, unless they do it tonight between 6:30 and 7:00, which is what happened eight years ago. if you look at the bernie sanders play game here, what

strikes me is that, given the blizzard that may happen, and the fact that i'm a college kid and i'm going home, how many parents that you are skipping two or three days of school to participate in a caucus? i don't know how that will go over at home base. ok, dan, thank you both. up next, hillary clinton campaign. after this word from our sponsors. ♪

>> i know that many of you here are already committed to caucus for me, and i thank you from the bottom of my heart. >> [cheering] determined,, most best change maker i ever met in my life, senator, secretary of state, and the next president of the united states, hillary rodham clinton. >> i hope you will caucus for me tomorrow night. they hope you will go, i hope you will stand up for me, i hope you will fight for me, and i promise you this -- i will stand up and fight for you every single day of this campaign and when we win, i will fight for you in the white house. thank you and god bless you. mark: that with hillary clinton

at a very big rally last night, joined by her husband and daughter. here to talk more about the clinton campaign in these final hours, jennifer paulmery. seven hours of sleep between the two of you, not evenly divided. >> not evenly divided. [laughter] >> an hour. mark: you have both been through lots of situations to talk about how the clinton operation is feeling going into tonight. >> we feel really good about it. we understand -- we have a lot of confidence in the ground game, but what's important is under the mat. we find we have a lot of committed support. particularly, everything about hillary clinton's resume -- people have a lot of confidence, she has a lot of experience, they think she is the person to take the fight to the republicans. what we really want people to know, and what broke through she'st in iowa, is that

the person who can make a difference in your life. there's a lot of frustration you see with voters on the left and right, and we think the answer to that frustration and what people are looking for is someone you understand -- what will you do next? how will you make the change? what is your plan? we think that is the answer to what people's concerns are feeling in their life, and think that has broken through in the last couple weeks in a way that hasn't before. it's great for iowa, but it portends well for her. john: you guys have been the last 48 hours confronted with yet another beat in the e-mail story. it seemed for a while that it was the ideal. how problematic is it to have that story come back into the headlines so close to caucus day? >> this story has been out there for several months. we've seen that democrats are

increasingly focused on the why i thinkthat is bernie sanders has tried to keep it on the issues, and not join with republicans in turning this into a political issue. weeks, you couple have seen a set of troublesome leaks from republicans on capitol hill. you've seems carless accusation -- you have seen accusations, saying that an indictment is around the corner. i think the sophisticated voters of iowa see right through that, thethat is why all commentary i have heard this weekend is rightly analyzing -- -- bernieou not sense sanders saying let the process play out, that there was a slight tonal shift? >> i think they call that throwing shade. [laughter] john: so a tonal shift on his part compared to no one wants to hear about your damn e-mails? >> i think in the alslast two to

three weeks, there has been an increasingly personal turn. the conversation up till now has been very policy oriented. we have kept it on policy matters. we've really pointed out issues on contrast on health care plans, and that is to be expected. but in the last few weeks, we have seen him like in her to dick cheney, which i don't think there is a worse insult to level out a democrat. himhave also seen he question her integrity. i think the shift in his tone ano thibespeaks increasingly personal tone. matter, hefactual raises more money from small contributions and she does. why is that? >> we feel great -- mark: why doesn't she raise as

much as he does? >> i guess i will let them talk about -- saying, we raise $115 million last year. we have hundreds of thousands of small donors. we have a -- mark: he raises more from small donors. you can pass. but you haven't really addressed -- >> we feel great about the amount of money we were able to raise. ehis makes me want to rais something you are trying to get at, mark. register"/ines bloomberg poll had a really showednt stat, which that hillary clinton supporters were more enthusiastic than senator sanders supporters. at against the first time we have seen that, but i think what it shows is the more people are

exposed to hillary clinton, the more enthusiastic they feel about her. bodesagain, we think that well. mark: any election day rituals you do for luck? >> come on. i try to do it -- mark: you got a boiler room you will be in tonight? >> there is a boiler room. they want people like us out of it. mark: thank you. break a leg tonight. coming up, donald trump, jr. joins us on the set to talk about their dad's campaign. and you can join us on the radio in washington. ♪

>> as we mentioned earlier, the biggest question of don't from's

campaign -- of donald trump 's campaign is, will the thousands to attend the rallies caucus? the challenge is to take the organic energy from rallies like this into caucus-goers. let's say they approach this the way a traditional campaign would. some of these people are more likely to can -- to caucus and others need a push. supportersof trump say they have previously attended a caucus. if you can count on half of the crowd turning out, what about the rest? trump has to find out the rest of them and he has to go contact them at home. here is what it takes to get them to show up. -- researchhow that

shows that you need 14 conversations to get someone to vote. te twoill have to devo hours and 20 minutes. , as many insiders think is possible, that 140,000 caucus. trump gets 28% of the votes. if you counts on half of those, that leaves 39,000 that he has to find and mobilize. 400 67,000 hours $1.8ocking on doors or 467,000 hours of knocking on doors or 1.8 million

dollars, by traditional tabulations. our thank to our diminutive collie. -- colleague. jr.ave trump thank you for joining us. >> great to be here. thing fors is a new you both. .e are going in to the science how much do you understand of this question mark >> very little. know thatt need to this is an unconventional candidate. we haven't going all over the state for the last 2-3 days and ugs,le have given us h

saying, i am going out and voting for donald trump. everybody with me and i am signing them up. the advocacy and the movement is incredible and i think we have a lot of energy. highlights foren your family so far question mark >> the warm welcoming as we go around iowa -- so far? welcoming as we go around iowa. they thank us for letting him change the game. i hear from people saying, i have never caucused ever. i think your statistics are accurate. speeches and the movement he is able to create by speaking and then going to listen to him, those people do not need to be

touched 14 times. how does the family deal with these moments? >> it is hard. he is an amazing father. there is no one closer than us. when he gets hit, it hurts. >> he does not seem bothered. >> you want to jump through the television and attack back. in this long time and we understand the game and the nature of the politics. you have to have thick skin in this game. it is a brutal and interesting problem. >> half as brutal as new york? >> hard to believe. more the things your debt has done beyond all the other

unconventional things is he cites polls. most of them are tilted towards him. is this a reflection of his business orientation? is that what that reflects or is there something else going on? >> he is a brass tacks kind of guy. he figures out how to make things work and cut through red tape. that is what we are going to do. all washington is is red tape and he is saying that he is not beholden to anyone and he is going to step away from the .ompany he said, kids, the company is yours. i do not care about that. done amazingas things for me and it is time to give back. >> it is a level of pride.

done heng he has ever has built himself. it is great to talk about the skyline or winning the presidency of the united states. politics fiveo months ago. >> it is unusual. he talks about the polls all the time. is he surprise that he is on top of every poll? >> this is the toughest job application in the world. no question about that. chief of the united states, if you do not pinch yourself a little bit, you be lying. did he think he was going to do incredibly well, yes. to be think he was going winning across the united states? i don't know. probably not. probably not. >> extraordinary family by a lot

of them -- by a lot of measures. normal ways is he a father. >> people think of the corporate oligarch billionaire. he is a hamburger and football game kind of guy. in the way he conducts himself, he is much more blue-collar american. >> does he help you with personal problems? >> is a great sounding board and he is intuitive. he listens to everyone. doorman of thehe building. back i really knows what is going on in the world. he will ultimately make his own decisions. he has made up his mind. when you make a decision, it is real knowledge. >> if he comes in second here and does not win, having been ahead in every single poll,

winning matters to him a lot. if, the first time he puts himself before the voters, he does not win, some people think he will crumble. your dad if he does not win? >> listen, we are positive people and we have done well in the race. we think we are going to win. we have all been out there. will we go into new hampshire as the clear front-runner? absolutely. dissolve --ill will we will pull this off tonight. i think the people switching from the independent and democratic side just to vote for him has been incredible. we have seen a lot of that. he will brush this off and just move on? .> it is a hard state to win

you know this better than anybody. i think that we will win this decisively. >> do either one of you intend to run for public office? buildingk that we like buildings. it is a lot easier. trumpsks to both the you -- both of you. some of the cross tabs you have not seen yet after this. ♪

>> you have not had a winner in iowa. we are going to have a winner

this time. a winner. we are going to change that. 16 is a lot of years. >> the queen of the cross the des moinesd register poll. numberstalk beyond the is ann. we had questions about the system being rigged -- do you think the system works for everybody? do you thin -- talk about the results. >> on the republican side, it says a lot about the mood of the election and why donald trump is leading. >> of the people who set the gged, 39% ri support truck and 19% support

crews. trump and 19% support cruz. people see him as more of a change agent than other candidates. asyou have to describe trump rich and powerful, but he would be better at fixing things with the rich and powerful. it is interesting. >> one of the things we do not discuss much is geography. part of thern state, i know you think that is important. >> i do. that is the evangelical heart of the state. ted cruz. endorsed platz.the home of vander pla

donald trump is holding his own in the fourth district. you would figure that would be home base for ted cruz. the fact that that is competitive, i will be watching those counties tonight. "definite" versus "probable." let's look. put that up. among the definite caucus-goers, clinton is leading. among the probable caucus-goers, sanders leads. if sanders is going to win, he has to turn probables into definites. and sheite are a core does well. in probable is adding people

and there is a correlation with never having caucused before. >> the categories come from "self identification." you see trump doing well. >> actually, with both groups. it is counterintuitive. you might think, given that he is bringing in a lot of new people, they would not be enthusiastic. >> they are committed to him and there is a lot that could happen inside the caucus. >> there are people who say they will not switch. fromu have found supporters fascinating and i do not understand it at all. they are the least mobile. what does that mean? meaning -- one of aboutings we just talked

is that he has supporters and lot.like turump a his favorability with anybody who is not a trump voter is 29%. z's favorability is 54%. the rest of the candidates are held in higher esteem. insularst an candidate. >> it is good to know they are not "housebound." >> there is more fluidity among the rest. >> there has been a little bit of coverage of this in the media. misdescribedbeen in a lot of ways? amon the republican side, i

hard-pressed to identify a single issue upon which people are basing their vote. "his is more a "mood election. that is why don't trump and ted cruz are doing well. one who wasanother never in government before and people believe that any change, any difference, is a good thing. >> have you ever seen an election like this before? >> never one where they spent less time about issues. they are not talking about health care and taxes. be a dominantally issue and there is hardly any talk about it. >> this poll was released on saturday. the campaign is stump speeches. there have been no ads or

last-minute endorsements breaking through. the only event has been the poll . do you think it will have an impact on the race? >> if you look at the science of that, it is hard to say which way it goes. i would say there is momentum there. , heernie sanders' side started at 5% and never lost ground. gotten higher has support. there is a built-in idea of momentum, even though we did not see a lot of change in the field. >> you can get more on our website and on the m1 register website. there are lots of things to read. we will be right back. ♪

niceining us now are members of the politics team. megan murphy and margaret, and correspondent and so much more -- a correspondent and so much more. you have spent a lot of time thinking about sanders and clinton as we head into the caucuses tonight. what is on your mind? the 2008t, recapturing coalition.

what is a win for hillary clinton? is it big enough to put sanders away? off couple of points staves a turnover in the campaign. it is a problem and it slows down her momentum along the way. otherk to us about the side of the i/o with ted cruz and donald trump. >> what i am looking for is turnout and if trump can get olls.e out to the p i think we are really going to see how the republican party is going to split here. is it going for is feeling? -- a feeling? or, it is going to go with the kind of -- [indiscernible] >> we are having trouble with your mic.

we are to fix that and get back to you. sanders had a good month and nothing like here. i think about the balance of power going forward and how the clinton people deal with the fundraising. >> things will happen on five or six levels at the same time with fundraising. he will face a challenge that all candidates who embrace the mantle of shunning big-money face. an you keep that up? how long can you keep that up? the further challenge will be that nobody looks at her like they do like jeb bush. nobody thinks that is going to happen. everyone thinks she is the presumptive eventual nominee. forward and, goes

it sanders, what this means, is a campaign that was not prepared for dealing with what they are dealing with now. >> it looks like ted cruz will have $20 million. other establishment candidates combined have that. we have a story about jeb bush and goldman sachs. >> my favorite story of the day. if shows how unsuccessful his campaign could be. he was going to get all this money and he had all of this money in the first half. in the fourth quarter, for just goldman employees, he had two donations, totaling 29 -- totaling $2900. if goldman sachs signal the rats leaving the ship, they have

definitely left. >> thank you for coming and we will be right back.

>> get on our website. there are a bunch of stories there. trump to teddonald cruz will stop we had the story mentioned about jeb bush and goldman sachs donors -- to ted cruz. we had the story mentioned about jeb bush and goldman sachs. stick aroundelse, for another hour of "with all due respect."

>> welcome back to the second

hour of the caucus night coverage from here at the des moines marriott downtown. republican and democratic candidate's have been trying to again, the and reset expectations for tonight. ramping up then expectations and talking about the likelihood that he might win. the clinton campaign has been talking about her strength in states after the first two. they are trying to lower the stakes here in iowa and new hampshire. who is winning the all-important game of democratic expectations? >> clinton has run circles around sanders on this. they have convinced people. they talked about the other 48 states and, in new hampshire,

they talked about bernie sanders being from next door and who cares if he wins. i think they did what they had to do. they have to win. i think sanders could have gotten away with saying, "as long as we come close." they said that belatedly. >> if turnout is big or the other things, they too often will win." that should not come out of the mouth of candidates. that, if hesaid loses, he may be done. ese both.n loses this both

, i don't think they are masterful. ne of two, they have done a good job. >> they could get people to think about the firewalls, as opposed to them being easily changeable. >> the republican race is more complicated with ted cruz campaign -- ted cruz's campaign talking about the well oiled operation and the rubio campaign playing down expectations. campaign advisers say they do not have any hope of doing all that well and they are focusing on new hampshire. uz,ristie, cr who has played the expectations well? goodey have done pretty

with the time last week when they start to hear people on the outer sanctum talking about the possibility of him coming in second. they have been disciplined about keeping expectations low and i nd up with 17%e and saying that he is the alternative. uz the losers are the cr campaign, who got a lead and start talking about how they were going to win. there was no need to do that. they said they were fighting for every vote and they were glad where they were today. -- they should have said they were fighting for every vote and that they were glad that they were where they were today. trump is so full of braggadocio and it should be easy to keep expectations low with a guy who takes up that much space.

say, "he is a billionaire and how can we possibly compete with him?" >> i think the christie campaign thaterstating the ability the filter will allow them to continue as a momentum candidate if they do not win tonight. >> it is a perfect foil for expectation-setting. the caucuses will shape republican and democratic races going forward, especially in the next contest on february 9. we have a scenario game that we if?"to play called, "what what if hillary clinton wins tonight? >> bernie sanders gives a concession speech, in which he frames the fight better than he aer has and he speaks to national audience in the democratic party to figure out

how he will be a national candidate and not just the "iowa and new hampshire" candidate. new hampshire tends to not validate iowa and go the opposite direction. along andsaid all will not stop saying that he has to win iowa to win the nomination. her ando somehow unseat knock her off of the horse. the clinton campaign can say, we have vanquished the ghost of bernie-menutum, we have vanquished that. wins, if he loses close and raises tens of millions of dollars, that will give him the ability to fight

her for a long time. >> what happens if bernie wins here? partyic in the democratic and the clintons have to take a hard look at new hampshire and how to approach it. of 10% oread significantly more. i do not think they want to waste time, if they cannot win. >> the republicans, john, what happens if trump wins tonight? thatagree with ted cruz there is a chance the man runs the table, with the absence of a intergalactic event. this will set him up perfectly for south carolina. there are scenarios where he would not be the republican nominee and it would be far-fetched to stop >> if he wins, he will get endorsements. but, they would be

far-fetched. getf he wins, he will endorsements. what about ted cruz? situation with a two-person race with donald trump. the establishment candidates could coalesce. in second ind come new hampshire and you would have a donnybrook in south carolina. oxygend be hard to have for establishment candidates, if that happens. >> he will raise a lot of money and a lot of the questions will be, what will happen in new hampshire? does ted cruz move up? if trump comes out of here firstd, he could finish in new hampshire. ted cruz could end up winning new hampshire with 25% of the vote and it would be hard to

stop. >> hard to imagine new hampshire, not wanting to 5 -- validate iowa, that he would ever win. next, a former clinton supporter who suck -- who now supports different from -- supports donald trump.

trump: you have not had a winner in iowa in 16 years. we are going to have a winner this time. you are going to have a winner.

we are going to change that. 16 is a lot of years. >> vote donald trump! >> usa, usa, usa! [crowd chanting usa] >trump: i really want to win. maybe it will not work that way. if we do, we will run the table. i joke, i say, if you are sick, if your doctor says you cannot leave your bed, it does not matter, get up and caucus. get up and caucus. that was donald trump making a closing argument at sioux city. he was seated with jerry falwell and talking about his campaign, making the case. joining us now is adam white, a lawyer from los angeles who

voted twice for barack obama and is supporting donald trump. i met him yesterday and i asked him to come onto speak about the conversion. is theining us again trump reporter. thank you for joining us. all three of us meet people like you. you voted twice for obama and now, trump. how do you explain? >> it is logically consistent. both are charismatic. agree.issues, you can also, you are talking about democratic candidates who are a disaster. has the authenticity problem that is huge.

so, you have a person who is running for the democratic who, with her husband, pass the defense of marriage act. you have the democratic candidate who is against gay marriage. her conversion, she explained it as being against a constitutional amendment. you can run down the line. >> on the issues, it is clear. how, someone who believes in what barack obama believes in and the policies he tried to implement and has implemented to some extent, how do you square these. -- these? they are not in sync, in a lot of cases. >> i do not think that is correct. >> in what areas do they agree? >> obama has the aspirational

message. that is fine. poor,ty, helping the minority rights. i agree with those things. i do not think you help minorities by destroying the economy, raising taxes, like bernie wants to. i do not think you help minorities are the poor by letting in who knows how many? best of thethe alternatives? are think the issues consistent. he is a racist -- most tubal think he is a racist and a terrible guy. -- most people think "he is a racist and a terrible guy." --ing this is >> this is about trump being

appealing to a lot of people. >> i talked to a lot of trump people who are bill clinton voters and consider themselves democrats. with the recession and the economy, they have changed and they are set up with career politicians and the status quo. they like donald trump's tone. they may not agree with him on all issues. there are different priorities that were important to him in the 1990's that were not as important as now. of people are talking about foreign policy, national security, the economy, issues that they have been hammering on. in sioux city and he was doing a strange thing, talking with jerry followed junior on stage. -- talking with jerry falwell on stage.

what is happening in the closing hours of the campaign? >> he seems tired, like he has put his faith in the system and is waiting to see what happens. his events have been shorter. usually, he goes for an hour. now, he is going for 30-40 minutes. i think he is trying to get voices other than his own out there. he is making a push for evangelicals. it is something the campaign has talked about. n toy falwell is know evangelicals and donald trump is handing over the microphone to him. tonight and about you are not voting. if trump loses, what does that do for you, in terms of your faith and passion? anything? >> i think he is going to win.

the other people i have spoken with think it is much higher. he is decimating crews. ruz. bettervers the message than anybody i have ever seen. he has the charisma that obama has. >> thank you very much. up, ted devine and jeffrey greenberg are here. ♪

>> a small group you are going up against as a major political figure. >> that is how it works. >> come on over for a second. >> how is everything western mark -- everything? >> the people of iowa understand the role they play in the process and they take this seriously. i have respect for the process. >> i love it here. >> that was a clip from the latest episode of the show on showtime that aired. it was put on in conjunction with bloomberg politics. joining us now is bernie sanders' senior advisor.

a series of me with banality. "nobody knows what is going to happen." poll came out on saturday night. what have you done to make sure the gap is closed? what have you actually tangibly done? >> everything. that is what we have actually done. had massive voter contacts. robo-calls. it was just telling people to get out and vote. we have left no stone unturned. we are proud of the argument. we have been here nine months and he has been here for nine years.

case that you go on just as strong to new hampshire, whether you win or lose by a little. >> we have been here and we said we would be tied on caucus night. you guys would have laughed at me. we have the resources to go on and we have raised $20 million in january. we have the support. people understand we have moved a mountain, even if we come up short. we are going to new hampshire, where he is popular. we are going all the way. >> you will be annoyed when you hear reporters say it is over. >> i get annoyed hearing lots of reporters say lots of things. the bottom line is that you then lose.r win

>> i would rather win by a point than lose by a point. >> if that is the case, you would rather win. >> of course. then i will have to answer this question. look at the difference between plus or minus, there is no difference. it is the margin of error. it is like, "whose car broke down on the way to the caucus?" i will have to answer all the "the campaignhe is falling apart." we're not going -- we are not done with iowa. we're going to split the delegates and pick up a few along the way. >> not one negative ad has been run in the race. will that change? >> not from us. i do not see bernie running negative ads. we believe the message is

stronger and the messenger is more credible. as long as we have that, we can win the race. >> is he consistent in keeping this up? >> has never run any and i do not think he wants to. >> why do you think she did not run a negative ad against you? runowa is difficult to negative ads. >> is new hampshire different? >> new hampshire is a little different. south carolina is a lot different. >> we have not seen any negative ads so far. we have potter stewart. what is the difference between a contrast advertisement and a negative ad? >> negative advertisements put your opponent in and name them, going after them. a "coke, pepsi" ad.

what merits the appellation? opponents ande you go after them. there is a tone that is more ominous. >> the music from jaws. >> will he use those? he will have a few notes and a statement ready, win, lose, or draw. >> if you look at history, the people who succeed are the ones who dominate the messaging. is that going to be up to him? >> we have to see how the results come in, when they do. it will take some time. bernie is the unscripted candidate. we let bernie b bernie. what is the correct

message? >> we have pushed it all the way and we are going to go on to win this. >> it is part of a process. >> we have this debate theme where everybody says, "we are good." >> there are issues to be worked out. we have agreed to clinton's request for a debate in new hampshire and we said, let's have three more and they said, let's have the march 1 in flint. itn, they said, let's have the third week of march. we say, why don't we have it on the sixth. and, let's do one in new york city and one in california. they agreed to that. only get the others locked down,

we will be there. >> you have election night rituals? >> i do not. >> come on. >> are you going to be in a boiler room? >> we are going to be getting results back and comparing projections. >> if it is close, they will not declare the winner tonight. >> in theory. it is like this in your system. >> is there any chance you get the speech in new hampshire? >> no. rubio'sg up, marco campaign manager. ♪

>> we are standing on the chronicles.second

from the wicked ways, i would hear the prayer forever and forgive their sins and i will heal. >> can anything happen between now and monday? >> you work hard and you do the best you can. it is up to god and the votes. >> that is from an episode of "the circus." joining us now are representatives from two of the leading candidates here. dan patrick is supporting ted cruz. this, the conventional wisdom is that ted cruz is not closing iowa strong. >> i think he is closing strong. we have seen scott walker

leading and he is not in the race. i think he is going to have a good night tonight. >> he said he was going to win. is he going to? once i never make exact predictions. i think he will finish well and calls and may 15,000 he has 12,000 volunteers on the ground and, if each brings to voters, it gets you in a goods.. >> i do not disagree. they have built a strong game and we expect that he is going to win. they predicted they would win by double digits. we get more negative ads

here that any other candidates and we are still in the running. if we finished a strong third, we are in good shape. and yourplemented you campaign earlier for playing the expectation game better. the expectations in a negative way for senator cruz. >> we have the wildcard factor of trump and nobody knows how it will play out. it could happen. have threeng to candidates coming out and ted and be in the best position $1co will have less than

million. they are positioned very well coming out of here. it will not end tonight. areour top three candidates yours and donald trump. going into new hampshire, is anyone else in this race? new hampshirend are competitive. republicanslear to who do not want donald trump and ted cruz, you need to vote marco rubio. >> you think they will speak out in the intervening weeks and say they are for marco rubio? confidenthy we are so because this is headed in the

direction of a three-person race coming out of here. the sooner the independents consolidate, the better marco will do. >> i think he can win. he is not good have the money whether volunteers and he is a fine man. consolidateing to the establishment group. had a rocksolid consistent conservative and ted has been. he stood up against obamacare, planned parenthood, for the second amendment. >> that is just not true and that is why he had such a bad

debate last week. and he is not consistent. you talk of the immigration debate that i was involved in and ted cruz was looking for compromise. >> you know that. of -- the point of view >> i know those maneuvers. -- arco >> he tried to get something done.

it did not work, he backed off. everyone else is saying the same thing. it is just not true. thing -- to see one you guys are here in talking to each other. neither one of you have said anything about donald trump. he could win tonight. >> i would argue that >> consistent conservative will stop >> you look at the things that you and your colleagues -- conservative. what you look at the things that you and your colleagues have said about each other. negative onwas

marco rubio. ted cruz is talking about the need to unite the republican party. >> do you worry about talking allowyour record will donald trump to win unmolested? win do not think he will and i do not think he will be the nominee. i think marco rubio will surge and be the nominee. >> ted cruz will be the nominee. he is the first true conservative with a huge organization, hundreds of thousands of volunteers and millions of dollars. becomesump wins and president, i will see you at -- if trump wins and becomes president, i will see you guys thehe nomination -- inauguration.

♪

>> the iowa caucuses are an assembly of neighbors taking the world.ader of the free how does this actually work? we turn to our experts. caucuses are unlike the voting experiences most have. you need to be in line by 7:00 on monday to get checked in. withill be in a room

republicans and democrats from your neighborhood. the party platform talks about the issue that are going to be represented. handed ay, you are writeof paper and you down your choice. the democrats have delegate equivalents and they say, if you support hillary clinton, stand in that quarter. if you support bernie sanders, go instead in that side of the room. if you are uncommitted, stand in this quarter. how many areunting in the room and in each quarter. a room filledgine with 500 people and, when you assign people to the corners, you have the figure out how many are in each quarter. you have some really stand on the chair and start counting.

claim 50% --as to 15% in the room. most precincts, this will not be an issue. for martin o'malley, it may be harder with fewer precincts where he can get 15%. if he does not, they get no delegates. if it is close, you have the disk data clinton and sanders persuaders trying to persuade the people to join them. it is unusual to stand up and publicly show this is the candidate you are supporting and to have negotiations and horse --ding to participate horsetrading. spend a to be ready to

couple of hours. you will stand in line to get checked in. it is called and you could be ,utside in the cold and dark waiting to get inside. there is a commitment to get everybody in the room, go saying the agenda, pitches from all of the candidates, and this all happens before you get to vote. so, if you are minimally engaged in the process and you are not sure about the candidates and you show up and you think it will not be two hours of your night, there are lots of deterrence. it is a commitment of a lot of energy and your soul.

it gets excited -- they try to get people to be excited to come out and vote. if anything, it is more excitement and enthusiasm in the room. at the end of the night, the caucus-goers go home and know that they made a little bit of history. the most important thing a candidate can do this when ed the first chance they have is iowa. seltzer --ks to and selzer.

where he stood in the past and the things he has said in the past that say he is not a conservative. he says it is conservative and this is where i stand. way to do not have a judge that. only donald trump knows if he is stating facts about being a conservative and where he stands on the issues. >> what is your perception? >> i would not agree he is a conservative. senatorwas the junior at a bloomberg breakfast hosted by al hunt.

she is always asked about donald trump all the time and that was interesting for her to say what she said. >> it really was. that is what a lot of fellow party members feel. chuck grassley would not say that, per se. he said that the trade policies would be a disaster. one of the unnoticed stories in the campaign is that everybody focuses on ted cruz and his negatives. donald trump has higher then any in party candidate i can remember. -- of iowa and republicans iowa republicans have an unfavorable view of trump. he has the most passionate support.

to,s i sat here and listen i thought it was obvious that she felt that the changes to conservative positions was expedient's. what do we tell the children? further. are not going why are they coming out and making the case against trump and saying they are open to the possibility of a genuine conversion. they have to do it now, rather than before it is too late. >> they are a little scared. she wants marco rubio. that is clear. she did tell me that her father and sister will caucus for a different candidate.

>> i do not understand that. >> she is not alone. there are very few republicans comfortable. jeb bush has done this on the stone. this.o after quest they say they will be neutral and they do not want to play favorites. terry branstad. >> he did not endorse formally. are and he maywe be on the doorstep of winning iowa and new hampshire, you have not heard a significant national republican speak out and say that this will ruin the republican party. >> it is uncertainty and that he has a constituency.

on the other hand, a number of really smart veterans of the about thethinking policies. the republican party has been a party of free trade and the democrats are totally protectionist. followsepublican party trump, america no longer leads the role -- world in free trade. traffichink this will for most of the show? if ted cruz wins here and new hampshire, he will be difficult to stop. do you accept the analysis? >> not necessarily. there is a contrary and streak. -- contrarian streak.

i do not think there is a -- >> for trump to come down, you in themagine someone high 20's. >> out here, the establishment numbers do not add up. >> on the democratic side, we say this all the time on the show, the way to win iowa is to organize. is there anything that hillary clinton has done in the end that you would describe as getting hot? >> she was ok. i did not think it was one of the great speeches and she has the misfortune of following her

husband. back.held >> he knows how to modulate and she does not. i do not think the campaign made any mistakes. she made a mistake with the e-mails. >> has she found a voice? >> she is running as a third term of the obama administration. barack obama is more popular than bill clinton in iowa. about mobilizing the base. >> to some extent. it is not a third term. obama was so popular. if she succeeds, it is genius. if she fails, it is trouble. >> i know you do not think sanders is going to be the nominee. how much does he need to win? >> my percentages of him being the nominee goes up.

there is no question about this. anything the clinton people realize is that he is in for the going.n and he has stuff he will we hear until may. >> this is a great question. wisdom.the conventional none of us will be shocked. back with the finish.

>> this is one i usually ask you who is on the dais. who has the best closing argument?

>> bernie sanders. >> i think it is possible clinton will say that hillary clinton and being the one getting it done, it could end up being effective. again, you can read all of the coverage after the caucus begins to shut it self doubt, check out the campaign tracker. >> we're going to stay on the road and head to new hampshire for the west -- rest of the week. thank you for watching. thank you to everybody here. we will see you in manchester.

>> from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. charlie: joining me is matthew dowd from abc news. from washington, kerley -- carol lee from wall street studio. and out on from washington -- from bloomberg. i am pleased to have all of you on this program. other any consequences coming out of what happened last night ?ith donald trump al: the conventional wisdom is the donald trump did well, was