mark: i'm mark halperin. john: i'm john heilemann. whose line is it? mark: i forget. here. john: with all due respect -- we do not do coin flips here in new hampshire. ♪ john: happy caucus day, sports fans. we have migrated east to mission control, the radisson hotel. the races in both parties are heating up. on the democratic side, hillary clinton ekes out a win by less than 0.3 percentage points, but bernie sanders' camp is refusing to concede. last night i talked with bernie and jane at their hotel suite immediately after he delivered his joyous and fiery speech to supporters. take a look at the extra footage. i want to get a little bit to the exhilaration.

i know you are excited. senator sanders: it's an extraordinary night. to think eight months ago we were 40 or 50 points behind. it appears we have one of about half the delegates. it is a tight. we have come such a long way. john: to be honest, when you first started coming here -- i know you were not doing this for fun, but could you imagine you would end up in this spot tonight? senator sanders: in the real world we are all complicated human beings.

when i started the campaign, i said, i'm running because i think we can win this thing. on one hand, of course, i thought we could win iowa, new hampshire. but then to see the coming together of enthusiasm, that has spun me and we are moving faster than i thought. john: best night of your political life? senator sanders: it is next ordinary night. jane was reminding me. back when i won mayor of the city of burlington, huge upset. we won by 10 votes. that is where we are again. [laughter] but here is the other difference. when you win elections, you go to work. tonight there is iowa, tomorrow we are in new hampshire, then we

are in nevada. so, it's part of a process that will continue for much of it. tonight, i think, iowa has sent us off with incredible momentum, and i think this begins a path to the white house. john: what do you feel like tonight? >> it is exhilarating and nerve-racking. john: and now? >> it feels great to go down and talk to those people. it is great read we will find out what the actual results are tomorrow, but it is -- senator sanders: virtually tied. >> and a real victory. john: even more exciting than when he won the mayor of roses? >> no, i must say. secretary clinton: oh, my gosh, it is great to be here with all of you, and i am so glad to be coming to new hampshire after

winning iowa. i can tell you, i have one and i have lost fair. it's a lot better to win. john: hillary clinton there. we were both at that event in nashua. bernie sanders is way ahead in most polling. do you have a sense she will win in new hampshire or something else? mark: her advisors are being remarkably frank and saying that she cannot win here -- her advisers are being remarkably frank and saying she cannot win here. the lead is too big. i do not suspect there will be negative events on television. they do have three events. that locks her in. she is here and i bet you bill clinton is hoping in those three events without martin o'malley, side-by-side, one-on-one, she can do what the clintons have done twice before, pull a huge upset. john: people forget -- this is home turf for the clintons.

bernie sanders is a neighboring senator, there is some advantage that accrues to him here. but this is a much stronger state for her than iowa for sure. and bill clinton thinks they can win here. back in 2008 it was dr. linda. -- in 2008, it was south carolina. everybody said, obama is not going to win. bill clinton said, we can go down there in winter it i think tonight bill clinton is saying we can win, what let's do it and make it happen. he will prevail over her other advisors. mark: bernie sanders' lead is big. people who are new to covering politics do not realize, you can have huge hole swings. -- huge poll swings. if she can best sanders three nights in a row, she can win this primary. it could happen.

i think that bill clinton will provide all -- prevail in saying to spend time here. john: we will see. with her strength with hispanic voters in nevada, african-american workers in south carolina, it would the a sign of weakness to go start doing events in south carolina sunday monday. idol think she can afford to do that. and she right now -- i do not think she can afford to do that. and she right now is claiming the winners momentum. you should be able to come onto this hospitable turf, a state that they know at the back of their hand, and try to pick sanders off. mark: if sanders one iowa he would've raise tens of millions of dollars.

-- won iowa, he would have raised millions of dollars. having tied -- how much does he have to spend in states in march? john: the sanders campaign, as much as she feels great, they feel like they won last night and iowa, to what. they are hot. mark: the big story in the republican race, texas senator ted cruz. defying expectations. he won the most votes ever in the iowa caucus, as he blew past the previous record held by mike huckabee by 10,000 votes. he was defiantly definitive last night when asked why he would be different going past iowa than some past conservative winners and the hawkeye state. senator cruz: you look at the last two iowa caucus winners, but when they came out of iowa, they were broke. they did not have the national infrastructure.

we are in a very different position. the finance reports filed last night showed at the end of december 31 that we had almost as much money in the bank, our campaign, as the campaigns of jeb bush, marco rubio, john kasich, and chris christie combined. that is an incredible testament. usually the conservative is broke. mark: undeniable victory for ted cruz how does it set him up for new hampshire? john: it should set him up well. there is no reason he cannot come in second in new hampshire. certainly a less evangelical but patan iowa, buchanan one here.

-- won here. we will talk about trump and a second. we do not know what the effective iowa will be on donald trump, but with ted cruz's momentum, his money, his message, i do not think there is a reason why he can't second and maybe even when the primary. mark: sanders'strong position allows him to raise internet money. cruz has more money in the bank already than his rivals that's not counting donald trump's personal checking account -- could have much more money going into march. he is a finalist now. there is no way he is not a finalist. had he lost, he would have tried to go on, but i think the campaign was overstating the definitive nessa them going on. he is a finalist. a well-funded finalist, if finalist that -- whose lane is clear while the establishment

lane remains clogged. john: the polling is accurate, but iowa is a hard state to poll. new hampshire historically has been given to huge swings in both parties, as we pointed out in the previous topic. donald trump's lead is not seem utterly secure by any means from rubio or ted cruz. it's a chance to move on trump here. mark: let's talk about the trump campaign. an extraordinarily strong staff. we want to go back to a breakfast we had with the campaign manager in des moines. listen to him in advance of the caucuses talking about what was going to happen last night. al: what you think is going to happen? >> i think we are going to win. we want to go back to a al: by how much? >> outside of the margin of era. -- error.

mark: jeff rowe and his colleagues and you have to say they understand what they are doing. some will say will that be applicable to states outside of iowa? it certainly will be applicable in states where they have a lot of groundwork. john: it is about smarts. he was striking. he was way out more than most operatives. what he thought was going to happen in terms of turn out, where the votes would come from, what the outcome would the. we were like, wow, that guy was confident.

and boy, it came through last night. confident for sure. winter, winter, the winners of the caucuses last night. and new hampshire's native son johnson new new is here to talk about john kasich -- ♪

mark: donald trump's statement after his second-place finish in iowa was ratios and subdued. today he returned to more normal form. he lashed out on twitter -- my experience and i was a great one. i started out with all the experts saying i could not do well and then end up in second place. nice.

but he took shots at the media at an event tonight where he is getting the endorsement of former massachusetts senator scott brown. he has done no big interviews. he stayed off twitter for a bit. he showed a different side. where does donald trump stand now after his second-place showing? where does donald trump stand john: one needs to answer this question two different ways. politically where he stands and psychologically. politically, he is in great shape. he has been strong in all of the other states. he should be fine, to go on and when a bunch of state spirit psychologically is another matter. i have no prediction about where this will be. he is a guy who has been win, win, win, polls, polls, polls

for a year. he came in a pretty distant second, almost got overtaken by marco rubio. what comes to the trump head? i do not know. mark: we will talk about the republican race in new hampshire all week. i want to look beyond new hampshire. his problem with ted cruz. he basically has unsheathed every attack he had on ted cruz and ted cruz is being attacked by other people, and yet he did not beat him. i think trump has to wonder, if this is a race where ted cruz is a finalist and trump is a finalist, how does he take on ted cruz? our polls show that i will republicans cared a lot more about ted cruz's bank loans than the fact that he could be prime minister of canada. john: we talked about this last night, one of the things that trump had done was discombobulated ted cruz. it was clear for about 10 days he did. but then he gathered his

composure and closed strong in iowa, despite the fact that most people thought he wouldn't. to win a one-on-one or three-person race with ted cruz, donald trump is going to have to spend money. how much money does donald trump really want to spend to compete in primaries across the south? mark: i am not sure that ted cruz was as discombobulated as you think he was. john: all right, we will talk about that. marco rubio pushing out a message of electability, that he and he alone stands the best chance of beating a democrat in november. that is the same messages super pac is pushing in a new ad. >> ted cruz says donald trump has boatloads of liberal positions. donald says ted cruz can't beat the democrats. you know, they are both right. marco rubio is the conservative who can win, and the clinton machine knows it. rubio beat the establishment. he will unite republicans and restore the american dream. if you are not with marco, you

are electing the democrats. john: as rubio attempts to consolidate establishment support, he gets the endorsement of south carolina democrat tim scott, in that importance state. chris christie at his townhall today in bedford -- governor christie: you know me, i am not the boy in the bubble. we know who the boy in the bubble is, who never answers your questions, constantly scripted and controlled. if the boy in the bubble gets it, and hope you guys ask him some questions and stop letting his handlers right his speeches and handle. because that's what they do. john: that's a variation on the question we have been asking all

morning -- where does marco rubio's finish leave him? mark: very strong with elites, very strong with the chattering class, very strong with donors. i do not know voters of new hampshire. everybody has had an incredible stretch. he will face a battering, even more than he got in iowa -- john: way more. mark: he will have to prepare a way to get over and break away from the pack in iowa where you have christie, bush, in case it, who have devoted a lot more time, and to get past ted cruz and trump. i'm not sure how he will fare with that group. he has a lot going for him with every other group that matters. john: two days ago it looked like marco rubio was moving up. i wondered, how is he going to get momentum? he got a nice boost. he can now make this claim with credibility that he is the guy. i agree with you, man. i think there been questions

about whether there is something that can take marco rubio down. i think he got hit with a lot. the new hampshire airwaves, free and paid media, are going to be filled with assaults from jeb bush, chris christie. mark: chris christie must be marco rubio here. john: same with john kasich and with bush. all three of them. mark: all right, up next week year from the cruz campaign, in the full afterglow of the big win. their campaign spokesman joins us right after this. ♪

john: we asked ted cruz communications director back on our show. where does ted cruz's very him restive -- very impressive finish and i will leave him in ve him in thea granite state? guest: we exceeded the expectations of the polls. we had a 6000-vote margin. that was pretty impressive. it shows you have a good ground game. we can do it again. i don't know about predicting a victory in new hampshire, but i think we will do better than people expect.

the five candidates you we had a 6000-vote margin. mentioned had to eat each other up, and ted cruz is the only conservative left. john: i'm not going to ask you for a prediction, but i am going to ask you, what could keep you from winning here? was it ever reasonable to assume you could win this state? rick: donald trump has 35%. it seems insurmountable, but we will give it a try. mark: is it possible that ted cruz good wrapping nomination up by march 15? rick: i don't want to speculate on that. it's way too early for that. mark: is it possible? rick: it's possible. mark: your candidate is a finalist? rick: he has raised from over 700,000 different donors -- mark: so you think he is in this race.

do you think that donald trump is playing in march? or not necessarily? rick: he has the resources. he can write a check. i think we have the resources because we can ask our donors for checks. you finish cash on hand $90 million, that is more than governor christie, governor kasich, marco rubio combined. do you think that donald trump is playing in march? or not necessarily? we do not leave iowa with no money. we left iowa with money and an organization. we have thousands of volunteers. we have a new camp cruz that has opened up housing volunteers and we will do that in south carolina. john: let me go back and ask the question in a different way -- if anyone is going to surmount donald trump's lead, who would it be if not you? who is more likely than ted cruz? rick: that's a very interesting way of asking it. it probably would be ted cruz. john: you think the person most likely to finish first in new hampshire other than donald trump is your candidate. is that your correct?

rick: it depends -- john: is there anyone in the republican feel stronger than ted cruz? rick: no. the politics and new hampshire are different. we have been the underdog in this race. john: how is iowa different? rick: we focused on the evangelical vote. he does not change his message. he came appeared -- there were a lot of conservatives working with pro-life groups, progrowth groups, they decided to get behind one candidate because they do no one in establishment candidate and they got behind ted cruz and he won that by 72%. if those people can turn out conservatives and they hang together, i think we will do very well here. mark: any change with your strategy, tactics or the same as in iowa? rick: if some of the same. -- it's almost the same. evangelicals do care about the

same things. do not burden your kids with debt, protect the country, protect the borders, defeat isis. grow the economy. they all want the same things. they may not be as evangelical as iowa -- mark: what if the russians attack in the morning? what then? rick: it is true he would get up later than most people. john: when we come back, talking about john kasich's big granite state gamble. ♪

mark: our next guest is one of at least two john sununus. he is also the chair of john kasich's presidential campaign.

you and your father weighed in on donald trump frequently. your father, the former governor, not supporting any candidate, but pretty opposed to trump. what do you think the opinion of the granite state will be of trump's finish -- john s.: what we saw, the polls trump dramatically underperformed the polls. it is probably not what polls are showing now. it probably is going to fade. john kasich is in a great position to pick the votes up. he did lose. he is a big loser. you are quoting the new york times.

that was my dad. i'm sure he was right. i probablyas my son would not be talking to the new i do not know what he said do you want to distance yourself from your father than? john s.: no, not at all. i'm sure it was true. the fact is the united states has never chosen a president with the background of donald trump because it does not work. business bluster does not work. changing your positions wildly does not work. i think that is why the people of iowa turned away from them and the people of new hampshire will do the same. mark: how does john kasich create distance between himself and governor bush, marco rubio -- john: he is the guy who will do the job --john s.: he is the guy it will do the job.

he has done it before. he is an effective leader. those who have worked around him have seen the way he can motivate people, bring a tough problem, solve that problem, turning around the economy in ohio. they have incredible records for tax cuts and private sector job creation in ohio. people want someone who will do the job and does not need on the job training. mark: trump is way ahead, depending on what poll you look at -- he is significantly ahead. ted cruz, low teens, high single digits. besides the debate, what opportunities do those five candidates have to differentiate themselves before tuesday? john s.: hopefully they've already done there campaigning in new hampshire or a lot of it. mark: that does not differentiate their support? john s.: it certainly helped build john kasich's support from no one knowing him to running on average second place in the rcp

averages. how do you do it? town to town, person-to-person. we have done over 100 town halls. you answer the tough questions. people remember that. they talk to the neighbors, they talk to their friends. you build that base of support. that is one of the reasons john has moved up in the polls. it is not transient. it is not based on a snappy line. it is based on someone who does the job -- mark: he does have a snappy line. john s.: no, but not in a did great. he's not coming in with the cans lined that he tries to deliver. john: marco rubio coming off a good night in iowa. what does john kasich have to do? john s.: i have said all along -- i was on your show, how are you going to blunt ben carson's rise? i said, look, you don't focus on

any candidate. you make your case what you are the best leader. when chris christie, carly fiorina moving in the polls, same question. you focus on one candidate u.s. one good night is a mistake. we have never done it because you're talking to the entire new hampshire electorate about a record of balancing the budget and cutting taxes and someone that will not have to be trained on the job. that's very important. lastly, electibility, i do not think you sell a candidacy on electability. we have not talked about it and john kasich's campaign much at all. but he is by far the toughest general election candidate running against hillary clinton and the democrats because he will win ohio. he will win michigan. he will run tough and the midwestern states that if been the linchpin of republican victories in the past. mark: less than 20 seconds. who are the two most likely republican nominees?

john s.: john kasich and -- mark: and? john s.: i don't know. the field. john: i think that's more than two. mark: when we come back, hillary clinton and new hampshire and the man who knows both of those well. ♪

john: joining us now, billy shaheen, venerable new hampshire right -- new hampshireite, long-time supporter of the clintons. thank you for being your.

-- for being here. totally understandable why hillary clinton is performing her -- is claiming her performance in iowa last night was a win. certainly better than the third-place finish eight years ago. in what way was it not also a win for bernie sanders? is there any way bernie sanders does not have the right to say given everything he is a winner, too? guest: i think bernie can say that, yeah. john: straightforward. two winners. guest: well, we won. john: he said i took on the most powerful political organization in american politics and brought her to a tie -- if there's something wrong with that? -- fought her to a tie, is there something wrong with that?

guest: he can say that. hillary clinton is running against 17 republican to attack her every day, running against billionaires who spend millions of dollars, running against two, what i consider recalled -- fraudulent republican committees attacking her in washington, and none of these people have attacked bernie at. -- bernie yet. i think she won the election at least in iowa. he can say what he wants to say but the score is we won, he lost. we are going to end up, i think with about 37 delegates, he is going to end up with 23. that's the name of the game. mark: is there any way he is too liberal to be elected in the general election? billy: i don't know that. i think bernie has got a message. i think that message is important. i remember when i was on the hillary team in 2008, when hillary gave it up and said, ok, we've all got to support barack obama. i took my hillary badge off, put

an obama badge on and went to work because i knew was a democrat, it was important for barack obama to win versus john mccain and sarah palin. that was in my dna. i feel the same way about this. bernie has a message and i expect that all of the people he is getting riled up and revved up will be over on our team for long. mark: she says that she would be a more effective president. would she be a more effective general election candidate? billy: i think so. i think americans like to govern from the middle. they don't like extremes. they like compromise. mark: in what way is he extreme? billy: i think this idea revolution is extreme. when you have a revolution, you have winners and losers in two people on both sides angry at each other. think the better way to do it is through compromise. john: there is a new hampshire primary coming up. we are here. billy: welcome. john: thank you. the clinton campaign regularly

points out that senator sanders is a neighboring state senator and generally try to explain his lead in the polls and attributed to that, the proximity to the state. it is also the case that the clintons have been warmly welcomed by new hampshire for decades. so do you think it is legitimate for them to diminish senator sanders' lead by saying, oh, he's just the neighboring state senator, that is why he is ahead? we are up foreign the territory there, bernie has the home field advantage? billy: i do.

john: you do? why is that? billy: bernie does have the home field advantage. he's been a lot of time here during my wife's campaign, helping her out. john: the clintons love this state. they have huge advantages. they know the state incredibly well. is it fair to say, we can barely compete with senator sanders, because we are on foreign territory. billy: we are going to compete. we are going to go after every vote. we have not given up the state yet. john: you have not? all in a new hampshire? billy: all in. john: is there any risk that this will up the stakes in new hampshire, so if senator sanders were to win, it will have been a mistake for her to fight as hard as she could? billy: i believe it is a mistake not to fight. i believe she believes that, i believe mr. clinton believes that. i fight hard every day. if we win, we went. -- we win. if we lose, we lose. but we are marching on. john: you believe she can win on tuesday? billy: i do. mark: it is a factual matter that senator sanders has raised more in small donations than secretary clinton has. i wonder what you think that is? billy: i think he has hit a nerve.

young people are concerned with the inequities of the country. john: why has she not hit a nerve with that message? billy: that is the message he has. but it's a one message. be president has a complex of issues, much more than one. that is where she outshines on all of those other issues. you have to elect a president who will do everything. you can't say we will focus on one thing. foreign affairs is a big deal. mark:. what do you think about -- mark: what you think about donald trump and his appeal to new hampshire? billy: they like someone might -- they might like somebody like donald. i would not rule him out at all. mark: are you going to vote for them? is that what you mean? billy: i'm not quite to vote for them. i'm going to vote for hillary. john: issue like to change her message question mark billy: her message is the same. same message as in iowa. john: thank you, billy shaheen. thank you. of next, two political mind to know this state inside and out.

when we come back. ♪

john: welcome back. we are at the new bloomberg politics "with all due respect" mission control and we have mr. james bendel and our guest from the new hampshire institute of politics. gentlemen, you are both handsome men. you almost look a little fraternal sitting there next to

each other. >> we spend so much time together. >> if we had a dog, it would look like us too. john: all right, what are you most focused on now in terms of this primary? >> whether anyone has momentum. h w bush, every single caucus-goers claimed that they had it -- it took barack obama five days. i think we have a couple people on the republican side with small mo -- mark: mini mo. james: on the democratic side there's just no mo at all. mark: it is mo-less. >> that new hampshire moment between iowa and new hampshire

-- there's one thing that creates that big swing and i thought rubio had a big night last night and i'm looking to see what he can do in the next three days. at can he turn that into the big mo? john: doesn't that happen in a spontaneous way? it's not like the campaigns can plan the moment? it often happens to someone who is not writing the big mo. -- riding the big mo. >> think about it. there is so little oxygen for these candidates. who will get the attention in the next seven days? james: talking to the major staffers on these establishment campaigns, on the republican side, and they have openly admitted, we don't know what is going to happen. we are just waiting for that moment to arrive and hopefully it is us. that's incredible.

mark: do people seem engaged in this campaign? does this seem like a statewide event or just practice? neil: i think so. i think we are having one of the most amazing primaries. this is the 100th year of the new hampshire primary. people are going to town meetings. there is criticism, but even think of donald trump. someone with national name recognition who, for two days, has been campaigning. and he is working hard here. it is a testament to what is going on here and we're looking forward to next week. james: we had a high turnout in iowa. i have no reason to believe there will not be a high turnout in new hampshire. mark: our polls important in the state? >> probably not. i think what they did with chris christie around thanksgiving, by

the way, was to say, here is a second chance. take a second look to this guy. which lasted for about a month. mark: getting the school, the community, students involved -- but more broadly how would you rank the participation of other academic institutions? neil: i think it is at least four or five times what it was four years ago. i've never seen anything like it. it is nonstop. we are getting requests for everything from debates tickets -- and you have a 10:00 meeting with a candidate and it fills up early. john: i want to talk about the democratic race. obviously there is no momentum. there was a tie basically, hillary clinton and bernie sanders both claiming victory. they both have ground to claim a

victory. sanders has had a big lead for a long time, substantial and really large according to various polls. is it fair to the clinton campaign to say home field advantage, we can't win here, or is it more -- this is been clinton central for decades area how can you say this is terra incognito for us? james: it is totally amazing we are having this conversation in clinton country. it is incredible. she is the reigning champion of the new measure primary on the democratic side. second, i do not understand the notion from the clinton campaign that, oh, he is just from vermont. that is not what is going on. that is a little bit hopeful in terms of travel. but there are cheat of other elements. one, -- there are cheat of other elements. one, they are really white. john: you could be the president of upper caucasia, if there was such a country. james: i think mitt romney could beat me on that.

but also independent voters where he is really beating her. i want to see what happens when sanders leads. john: you are an older man than james. for vermont versus new hampshire -- neil: people in new hampshire traditionally do not win -- like people from vermont. we saw howard dean did not win. this is another example of brand loyalty and politics. personality trumps everything else in politics and there's this movement of people are latching onto with bernie sanders. i can't explain it, but it's happening. john: this is not brand loyalty. it is her. she won the primary years ago. neil: i get the feeling -- i'm

reminded of 2000 with mccain and bush, and they waited to south carolina and when they took on mccain, i wonder if that is what they are planning. mark: you have a feeling about the establishment candidates, which one might have a strong night? neil: if rubio in the next three days can show momentum from iowa, he will be it. john kasich is done a lot of work here. christie gives fighting and fighting and fighting. bush is working as hard as ever, and here we go again. it is the split of all four. i just did it. the split the traditional voter in new hampshire is doing. james: there is such a high level of people who have no idea who they are voting for with seven days to go. i think he is right. if marco rubio can get some sort of momentum -- the thing with marco, he did not do these aid -- the thing with marco is, he

did not do the spadework here. mark: if you are to speak to somebody coming up as a primary tourist, what is one place they should go? neil: i would go to a trump rally. i have never seen anything like it. it is people who normally would not participate in politics -- i would go to a trump rally. they have taken on this persona of the candidate. mark: ok, neil, apparently a closet trump supporter. when we come back, who won the day. ♪

mark: the iowa caucuses are 25 hours old. john, who won? john: ted cruz unquestionably.

rubio getting hammered. ted cruz line in the clear. the big winner. no one has laid a glove on him all day long. mark: i saw an event he did today, 30 minutes in manchester. he is very calm and rested. his first event was not like bernie sanders, he went and got some sleep. john: we are always on bloombergpolitics.com. coming up on "bloomberg west," emily chang will talk tech. sayonara. ♪

♪ rishaad: i am a shot fellow month. you are watching "trending business." this is a look at what we are watching, markets down for a second day, energy and resources across the region, japanese shares down by more than 3%. that is the most in two weeks. crude slipping for a third day, diving below $30, and data was expected to show a glowing

-- growing glut and producers not wanting to do with it, and nintendo with a super mario gaming debut. it will be the biggest shakeup since the 1970's. for our top stories, follow us on twitter. and i am at rishaadtv. it has a look at what else is going on, and here he is. i will give you an update, the best performer today , year-to-date in the asia-pacific, which i guess that the glassu really is has full. -- half full. here is what is happening today. obviously, a complete turnaround from what we saw on monday, with broader risk aversion. have a look at the