john: i am john heilemann. mark: with mark halperin. with all due respect to donald trump, trying to be a cooler cat next time. ♪ mark: greetings from the very beautiful radisson hotel. hours ofre with two special coverage. tonight is the night it will be all right for some of the candidates in the new hampshire primary. candidates did a final sprint across the state. meeting voters to polling place, trying to get some of the famously late decided new

hampshire voters. we have no idea where it ends up until later tonight. one thing is certain -- both these races are going to change in fundamental ways after tonight. rumsfeld,ds of donald in this six person race, what are the known knowns and unknowns? trump, not certain, but quite close to certain for winning. the rest, a total jumble. and how much has marco rubio been hurt by his debate screw-up , and how much has chris christie been helped by the takedown? mark: ted cruz does not have anything on the line. sixth, he will be fun. way trump isk -- damaged in he slips out.

and one of the establishment candidates, bush, kasich, or rubio, will be on life-support after tonight. ristieveryone thinks ch will be far behind. i thought they could all go on. at least one of those three will and themoney dry up establishment say, you had your chance and could not deliver. john: another known unknown is ted cruz. where is he going to end up? there is some chance he could surprise us all. they played the expectation game very well this week. sneaks into third, that would be a huge victory. yogi berra, deja vu all over again. the republican establishment is freaking out over the prospect

of donald trump winning big. that would set off a chain reaction leading to him becoming the republican nominee. this morning at the bloomberg breakfast hosted by al hunt, it asinunu explored scenario no longer impossible. >> trump versus hillary. mcconnell will say that trump will not pull out in a vote on the republican side to elect republican senators. i do not think it is out of the question to find another candidate being pulled into the game just to pull republican votes into the game. they need a candidate that will bring the voters out that will support republican senators. p is the nominee, contested seats lose.

john: one scenario for what the establishment might do if trump is the nominee. what are other possible things? rallythey will try to behind one person in south carolina, whether it is rubio or bush or kasich or bush. you will see more people denounce him the way senator sass did in iowa. the both said they would be for the republican nominee, but they do not think it is going to be trump. john: there have been passed scenarios where people have been winnowed by new hampshire and were on the sidelines for a while. i do not think it is that. john kasich, marco rubio, if they get effectively eliminated tonight, i think those guys turn around and say, i am endorsing x

or y because we must stop trump or cruz. mark: the senator was not particularly high on cruz. the person to watch is nikki haley. perandi is to endorse. let's talk about the democrats. hillary clinton is widely expected to lose. her campaign is playing the great expectations game. 10,he loses by fewer than there will be nothing to see here. sanders has had a lead ranging polls tooints in some around 10. the clinton campaign's fun things so that a loss that is close would not be politically devastating. john: it is something we have

observed over the course of the week that we have been here. the media right now is in love with bernie sanders. they love the bernie sanders story. unless hillary clinton loses by three, even at eight or nine, they will not be able to spin it . low single digits, they might have a case. beyond that, everyone will give sanders a lot of credit for this. out withgoing to ride a lot of mo'. participatedve because there is bernie-mania in the press corps. hillary clinton is in one of clintonian phases where the press is not treating her

well. this will be treated as a huge sanders when. john: seeing the clintons backed up there has reminded everybody that this is home turf for them. mark: as unfair as the coverage is, there is no doubt that the sanders team is right. hillary clinton in new hampshire, it is a political achievement. he has lots of problems, but her problems will mount, particularly on the fundraising front. john: his fundraising is going to explode. tonight, hillary clinton will this.ly look like two, asanders, game eat in the state that put her husband on the path to presidency. that will cause tremors in the democratic establishment. what will they do, if anything,

if sanders wins? mark: i think he will pick up some endorsements. not real establishment endorsements. for the clintons, i think you will see the phone lines bring up. they will say, here is what you need to do to fix the situation. they will give her a chance over the next two or three weeks to right the ship. the pressure on her is going to be huge. bernie sanders will have to prove himself to different voters. the establishment will not turn to him. john: there was a story today about a prominent clinton backer on a call today saying, get gloria steinem and madeleine albright off the campaign trail. that is the canary in the coal mine for the nitpicking that is going to happen. gore, biden,r kerry-

are not going to start tomorrow. but if sanders wins in nevada, you are going to have a conversation. clintons know 1000 people who think they can run a campaign. more than 80% of them will be calling the clintons themselves and saying, this is what you need to do. the problem, i continue to believe, as do many, is the candidate. who needs to perform better, which she can do. john: the clintons will take those calls. every single one of them. they will not say everything is fine. goodbye. mark: coming up, morning joe after dark. geistarborough and willie join us when we come back. ♪

john: welcome back. with us are three people we spend too many angry early mornings with on msnbc. tonight, we are turning the mika, on joe scarborough, and willie geist. this is awesome. >> it is our debut. john: what about don rickles? >> have you had don rickles on yet? john: not yet. he is a hard one. what do you think is going on here? >> it is anecdotal.

when i used to knock on doors, i would get to the third or fourth, everyone says the same thing. the ninth or 10th, it is scientific. everyone that has been out, they are all saying one name -- john kasich. i do not know why. disaffected hillary voters that cannot vote for the socialist but want to find someone they can believe in? what it is, i'm hearing kasich. more than bush. i have not heard about anyone talking about bush today. i'm actually looking for a bush and kasich search -- surge. >> we went to the trump rally last night. tonight is make or break for trump and sanders. you mentioned elizabeth warren.

if hillary loses, there will be a rush for that endorsement. steinem was on television talking about her and it is not going as it should. she is going to need to fill that one gap. i think it is about letting her be her. areaas a problem in the where bernie sanders might rule tonight. republican campaigns have all said we have no idea where we are going to finish. they have conceded that donald trump will win this. they do not know if they are going to be two or six. but they all say, wherever they fall in the pack, we are going to south carolina. we believe it will be tight enough to make the case we are the alternative to donald trump. speaking of donald trump,

you understand him better than most people. one thing you understand that most people do not? unlike ronald reagan, he thrives on being underestimated. we walked into the arena yesterday before anyone was in there, and we could tell he set everything up. he is one of the best tv producers mika has ever seen in her life. he understands things that nine out of 10 candidates have no clue. mark: something else about him? he does not have a campaign talking to him about what issues to focus on. the reason why marco rubio stumbled so badly is because the mask completely fell off. you can see all these different people talking to him and telling him what to say. if you google things he said in his speeches, he has been saying it for years.

donald trump thinks about something two seconds before he says it. picture, about the big where he wants the crowd to be, the next big event to be. what is so interesting is, just to follow up on this and that i will be quiet, he was about to go on stage. we were with him. they kept saying, mr. trump, 30 seconds. they go, 10 seconds. literally with three seconds left, he looks at a couple of well.and says, oh, he goes out in front of 5000 people and owns them the whole time. >> i think he instinctively understands the country in a way that candidate spend millions of dollars to find out through polls.

he understands that people who might follow him are offended by political correctness. he finds the buttons to push and uses them in every speech. he knows where the weakness is in government. he knows a lot of people in this country hate the media. he knows the buttons to push. does he mean all of it? i do not know. talk aboutll democrats in the next block, but for now, let's stay with trump. we can talk about states and all that stuff. who, as a performer, among the rest of the republican candidates, could go toe to toe with donald trump and taken down? who has that skill set? >> sounds ironic, but i think jeb bush. i think he found his voice. associate -- association with him the other day,.

she said donald trump, and he said "lose." if the establishment wants somebody to stand up to donald trump, there is more than one act. >> he is like the kid in the sandbox that quickly went to tell his mom. >> what are you talking about? >> seriously, that is jeb. >> not right now. >> he is prepared to do the job, but he does not stand up to donald trump on stage. chris christie. say no more. christie is the most talented politician, the best at what he does. he is good on his feet. he can do a town hall. , will say for jeb bush watching the events that he does are not the most exciting thing in the world, but i have not seen another candidate drill down on such divergent issues.

way, carly fiorina is the person donald trump is least couple going up against. john: we will be right back with the rest of this amazing morning joe gang. ♪

♪ we are back with the award-winning cast of "morning joe." some of the exit polls. >> this is horrible. that is just mean. wherever he goes.

the rubio robot-o. mark: you can react to whichever you want. thirds of the voters in the republican primary felt the trade by the republican party. candidate to be outside the establishment. probably not a great night for marco rubio. >> the thing that cuts against cuts against those rubio, but he is the republican establishment. the washington post had an article talking about where the independents were breaking. he was not in the top five. that is huge for trump and good for kasich. is below kasich

and bush tonight, is there a path forward for marco rubio? forward rubio's path depends on being able to raise money. he has not raised money as well as other people. he was telling people after iowa he would get bush's people. unless he finishes ahead of bush, he is not going to get it. if he finishes fourth -- iola -- iowa, who had a better week? her storytelling about how they met was fantastic. mark: what does she do for him? >> i think she finishes his sentences in a way you think a couple would that have been together a long time. even more so, her story backs up his message.

she had a hard time. she brought up three kids on nothing. he pulled me aside in the studio and said she worked as a bank teller. >> she also talks. my kids wanted to meet bernie. we went to meet bernie. bernie is kind of nervous right now. jane was sitting there talking with everybody. she is so gracious. i love bernie, but jane is a terrific fit for him. >> she engages him in the ification project. john: two thirds of republican voters support a temporary ban on muslims. >> wow. complaining about

the republican party in d.c. the ng the base. betrayi that this guy would be the wrecking crew against the establishment in washington d c you are paying for 20 years of betrayal. four for agree that four for trump, it is hard to see who benefits. kasich always says, i am not establishment. do you think he comes off as establishment, former chairman of the budget committee? john: it possibly helps ted cruz. i would not be surprised if he is in third place. >> what we were talking about before, it is kind of like when

defense wins super bowls. if you have a great defense, your defense is great every time you go out there, if you have a ground operation like ted cruz mistake.that is not a you take that into every single game. if ted cruz is running against people without field operations, points rightive there. he is the guy to watch tonight. mark: it looks like trump had a big lead. tonight, wins by -- does that supercharge him? >> he did not pack up his things and go home. he gave a gracious speech that night. he is back where he was pre-iow

a, the steamrolling front runner. if he does not win tonight, i do not know who the hell they are going for. you guys have been onset monday mornings for the last six months, where everybody predicted the demise of donald trump. owa, it was that supercharge. everybody was calling him a loser. mark: thanks very much. back, marco rubio's communication director and donald trump's strategist will join us. ♪

♪ >> i really have no numbers. i just want to do well. i want to win. >> will you come in second here?

>> i do not know where we are going to finish. trump is a clear front runner. do have people that have not campaigned anywhere else but here. the expectations game on television today. ,oining us now, tim clovis strategist for donald trump, and the campaign director for marco rubio. we have gone through a few exit polls in terms of late-breakers, muslim bans. how much does that freak you out? >> a lot of people seem to favor mr. trump's issues. i am not going to put a lot of stock in exit polls. i do not think it is any secret tonight will be a good night for donald trump. he has been leading every poll here for months.

30% of it seems locked in. havee divided field, we nine or 10 other candidates. john: what do you think? are you looking at those numbers and saying our guy is out of tune with the electorate? >> new hampshire is certainly that way. we have been up front since day one. ishink what is interesting the punching behind that. if we win by one vote or 15% is not the issue. it is who comes out of that. john: one vote could be the issue. i asked people in the media, name the winner of the third super bowl. can you? probably not.

i guarantee you you cannot say the score. i will leave it at that. what is the difference between marco rubio and donald trump? if donald trump wins big tonight, people will be asking, what is the message? >> they are both aspirational messages. they are running on a platform that america is a great country. john kasich is really focused on new hampshire. he has had 100 townhalls over the last couple of months. chris christie has basically relocated to new hampshire and spent way more time here than in his home state in recent months. jeb bush spent $10 million attacking my boss, marco, on the airwaves. we want to finish in the top tier.we are planning for the long march states.he

south carolina, we think, is good for us. we feel good about tonight. if we can finish in the top tier, we have accomplished what we wanted to do, especially when you consider how much the governors have invested. mark: where do you see an overlapping message between trump and rubio? >> i do not see much. senator rubio is a remarkable politician. has been, his theme one that struck a chord with particular strains of the republican party. mark: how would you describe that strain? >> i would not say small government, but big government conservative, if you use those terms in the same sentence. i see. the strain icy --

donald trump has covered a broader base. we have attracted a lot of people to politics that have been out of politics for a long time or have never been involved with politics. that is a great challenge when it comes to primary and caucuses. we have a message that is resonating with them, touching them in a way that they say, there is finally hope. we are hearing something that gives us hope that the country we imagine, that we learned about in civics class, actually exists and will exist under his leadership. john: assuming your boss wins tonight -- who is the candidate you would most like to see in a strong second place from strategy? and who would you least like to see? band will be important, to see who is in the van. i think there will be three or four.

if senator rubio does not make it in, it will be tough for him in the next couple of primaries. christie say governor makes it in. that changes a lot of things. 5%.as been polling at 4% or another is governor bush. if you does not make it into the band, it will be hard for him to continue. john: i know you do not want to play with hypotheticals. you came out of iowa with you to momentum. gave a very triumphant speech that night. if you guys do not do as well as you did in iowa, what is the argument for continuing? >> every state is different. a with sevenof iow delegates. cruz has eight.

get more in will south carolina. john: so forth place or fifth place is totally survivable? >> absolutely. either way, we are going to south carolina tomorrow. mark: if marco rubio has trouble raising money after tonight, will he continue? >> that is a ridiculous hypothetical. mark: he can continue raising money at the rate he has been raising? >> our fundraising has only picked up since the last debate. at the last debate, we had the strongest fundraising we had on any night. $600,000 on saturday night alone. that is enough to run our operation for several weeks. mark: on $600,000? >> i'm talking about the gore campaign. we are running more than any other campaign.

why not spend the money if he has got it? one, it fits in with his message. the old postt office in washington dc, ahead of schedule and under budget. that fits in with what we see on the business side. he has not had to spend. what it says is we have a huge reserve ready to go in places like florida, texas, where you have to have a high media buy. we have the reserves to do that. john: our thanks to both of you, sam and alex. we will be right back with hillary clinton's press secretary, brian fallon after this. if you are watching this in washington dc, listen to us on bloomberg fm. ♪

♪ >> the people who have supported because theying it just like me. i have the senator from vermont supporting me. howard dean supporting me. they clearly prefer to support me. i have the senator here, the governor in new hampshire. they know me. they trust me. they are not the kind of people that would sign on to a campaign for a surface reason.

mark: our next guest, we are thinking about putting his name in the credits. brian fallon joins us on primary day. john: brian fallon junior. mark: brian fallon junior, thank you for joining us. thatre positing earlier hillary clinton is getting unequal coverage. you have trotted out things about bernie sanders' fundraising. what are the things you would like to put front and center for the people in new hampshire who are going to vote tonight and for the national audience, the things you think senator sanders should get more scrutiny on? >> first of all, i agree with your premise. john: shockingly. >> there are some things in terms of how he ran his campaign and there are some things that are issue-based. in terms of the campaign, he said he would run a different

kind of campaign, stay above the fray. tfulink he has refined an ar method of airing obligations without the perception of going negative. me you guysms to face an extraordinary challenge convincing voters who see him as a truth-teller about politics. is that going to be hard to convince people of that with the examples you give about fundraising? >> i think we are starting to see increased scrutiny. as more reporters are covering it and taking him seriously, as they should, because he might win the primary tonight, which is no small thing, he is getting the scrutiny that he should in the last couple weeks. as that continues, i think it will have a leveling effect. john: demographics. iowa very striking the way

and new hampshire, the big issue is not male versus female, but age. candidate, a female candidate, with younger voters. any concern on how that might play out with other demographics? if he can win women, why not african-americans or hispanics? >> i look at it a little differently. i think right now, as it stands today, we have the makings of a winning coalition based on the people that are already supporting hillary clinton in terms of the nomination and the general election. because it is hillary clinton, there will be focused on the gray line. said, we are not willing to concede any voter blocs to senator sanders. we always want to try to

improve, with women and young people in particular. we are going to try to make inroads there. one of the reasons for the gap see is that there has been much written and said about hillary clinton -- two people know the real hillary? people, in the early parts of her career, the way she channeled her idealism and followed a path into public service, i think that will resonate and speak to people. she talked about this friday night. 1968, she went to work for an idealistic campaign. there is a lot that will resonate with young people. i think we can make inroads. i do question the outside focus on areas where we need to improve. i think there are some realities in terms of voting blocks where

we are doing quite well. in the march states, the african-american and latino voters make a difference. mark: i believe brian fallon junior was a justice department spokesperson previously. what is going on with the fbi justice investigation? >> i do not work there anymore. so often, you speak out and seemingly report with knowledge. >> i am a close consumer of the news. mark: a close consumer of news. in 20 seconds, tell us what is happening. surprised if she was asked to appear at an fbi interview? august that we would cooperate in any way. mark: yes or no? would you be surprised if the fbi called her in at this stage? >> i would say this. i think a lot of the wind was

taken out last week based on the same findings being made with respect to colin powell. i will have a word with your father. mark: thank you, brian fallon. great look tonight. reporterse olde roundtable. ♪

♪ john: joining us now, james jennifer epstein. thank you for coming in and sitting around the table with

us. james, what are you most focused right now. the polls are going to close not that long from now. what are you looking for? buzz is aboutthe kasich. i am looking for independent voters, which way they went. that is everything. i know we have been talking about this over and over again. evidence ondotal the ground that they want to stop trump or cruz. that will have an impact on the democratic margin. there you go. mark: when campaigns make changes, there is one of three reasons. they want to have a media narrative about turning the page. another is they think something is wrong. another is they are just frustrated. which of those is going on in the minds of the clintons? >> the clintons themselves? clearly, the frustration.

they think they have a good message. the senior staff seem to think that. their message all along has been a laundry list of things and overall experience. i think you'll find different ways to say that. i do not think they think the narrative is bad. she was going to move -- lose new hampshire no matter what. let's move on from that. the early march states is where she should do well. if she does not, maybe the dynamic changes. john: you covered the rubio campaign in the past nine months. what is your thermometer for how nervous, freaked out, they are by the last 72 hours? >> they are a lot more than they outwardly,

are inside. of thent a winnowing field to get people like kasich and jeb out. they have a chance of top three positions. the rubio people want to keep ors network alive, ensure don so they can move to southern states with a better organization than the governors. ,ohn: what if they finish below all three of the people they just mentioned? ?ill they be winnowed >> i doubt that. the delegate count, no one will be that far ahead or behind. that said, mark brought up the point that fundraising will be very difficult for them going forward if the governors stay in the race. if recent polls are right, it looks like they will stay in the race. >> how damaged is rubio?

if he comes out of new hampshire damaged, you can come up with a conceivable scenario as to how jeb bush can be the nominee. if that is true, if jeb bush could have a path to become the nominee, what is the argument for iowa or new hampshire? if he gets third or fourth here, you can no longer become the party nominee unless you get six. mark: is what they did here replicable in upcoming states? >> it is a more traditional campaign they are running. are you doing well in new hampshire? are probably not going to win here, but they want to convince donors. well, isuming they do what worked for them here

something that could work for them in other states? is what they did replicable? >> i am not sure it is for kasich. it probably is for bush. he has more going for him in south carolina. look, all those people have to figure out their path after march 1. how do you get past the southern states? salivating for the opportunity to talk about those states. the key story could be that new hampshire was a big punt. john: let me ask you a basic question. the contest finishes tonight. hillary clinton loses, probably by an appreciable number. we have a debate on thursday in milwaukee. what happens after that to hillary clinton? where did she go? how important is nevada? how do they play the next 12 days? >> they will try to show her strength with african-american voters and hispanic voters.

she will spend some time in nevada. she will also go to south carolina. then she will be in new york, chers in newack prea york to fund raise in new york. e, butomes more of a jumbl that is where her strength is. she does not have just one area of focus. she can look at the next two state and beyond and get into african-american outreach much more deeply. that is what her team is looking forward to. john: thank you. all of you are great. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: please stay tuned. asare on for another hour boating wraps up in new hampshire. tonight, go to bloombergpolitics .com for all of the political stories. mark: if you are one of our international viewers, stay tuned for "first up" from hong kong. for everybody else, we will be back with coverage in three minutes. ♪

it is hour two of our new

hampshire primary coverage at the radisson hotel. are sizzling and so is talk of bernie sanders cleaning up. there is a debate in milwaukee thursday night. nevada caucuses on february 20, and the south carolina primary one week later. mark, my question for you is what the sanders campaign needs wedo to capitalize on what expect to be a significant victory in new hampshire? mark: he needs to give a big speech. there are some that thought he could do a better job of that in iowa. he will have a huge night tonight. look at the early exit polls. like nine out of 10 people voted in the democratic primary said that the nation's economy favors the wealthy.

that is probably good for bernie sanders. one in four or for a candidate outside of the establishment. that seems good for hillary clinton. in talking with the clinton folks all day, we do not see people optimistic. they want to get through this and be inspired by their candidate. but this could arguably be the darkest night of her campaign. still stipulating she is the favorite matter what happens. john: this is not iowa. here, 68% of voters in the democratic primary say sanders is right on the issues, compared to 55% for clinton. is too liberal. this is a more moderate electorate. they do not think sanders is too liberal. that is good news for him. 28% of the electorate say they are very liberal.

shows you how much the party has changed. what changes going forward beyond new hampshire? mark: it is clear they are thinking about how to spend his time and money to expand his appeal beyond those two states. john: c al sharpton tomorrow. mark: you will see him put her on the defensive. to quote one of our favorite haley barbour lines, good gets better, back gets worse. she is going to have to find a way -- every endorsement bernie sanders gets in the last -- next week will be trumpeted in the media. john: you saw him in this debate. very noticeable in new hampshire. when he did his closing statement, he sang the song of being an immigrant.

his father, a polish immigrant. that is what that talk is about. going to nevada. even though he is from a different immigrant story, he understands the immigrant story. they are going to fight in nevada. mark: hillary clinton must try to play some offense and take away his young people vote. but she is going to have to play some defense. one big question -- what hillary clinton's post-new hampshire campaign will look like. tv ad a glimpse with this focused on courting african-american voters. >> something is broken when african-americans are more likely to be sentenced to longer prison terms for doing the same thing that whites do. when too many encounters with tragically,ent end we need investment in education, health care, and jobs to counter

neglectgenerations of and systemic racism. mark: what does hillary clinton need to do to recover if she has a big loss in new hampshire? john: i will go back to my nevada point. there are a lot of reasons why would be something the clinton campaign would want to shy away from. it is a caucus state. sanders has money out there already. they may want to wait until south carolina. but i think they have to fight and win that state. they won would be something the clinton campaign would want to it in 2008. she needs to put a real win on the board. i almost think they have no choice than to try to win the race in nevada. mark: hillary clinton is outspent in this state. there is a danger of being outspent in other states because undraising. f

if they cannot keep up, what is the solution? you will have to win media. right now she is getting creamed in our media by bernie sanders. john: one of the great things about this discussion is for so long, there was a pat assumption she could lose no -- new hampshire and it would be fun. when this happens, a lot of stuff will change. the situation will look trickier. she is still the favorite to be the democratic nominee, but she will get into a thicket of difficult choices coming fast starting tomorrow. three candidates dropped out of the republican race after performing poorly in iowa. new hampshire could winnow the field even more. there is a prospect that all four establishment candidates

could do well here. are there any candidates that could drop out after the sunday debate? if so, who? mark: i think all six of them and carly fiorina will go forward regardless of the result. the reality for anyone not named donald trump is the belief that trump will not be the nominee and when he leaves the race, that puts 30% of the vote up for grabs. , for anyone will be who does not fund raise off of this, which does not include trump or cruz, for the others, can they see a path to the nomination without raising money? if you come out of here without raising money, you will have to run a different campaign to stay alive. john: we do not know how this campaign will end. i do not understand in the medium-term how chris christie

finishes in the single digits with other establishment candidates in the double digits. i do not understand chris christie's long-term path. enough of a realist that he will have to leave in the next week. jeb bush is way ahead of marco rubio. i do not get the dynamics that will allow him to go forward. i do not see how that works for him. finishing fifth year after third in iowa. mark: there is a difference between not raising hard dollars and not being able to raise super pac dollars. if you can convince five people to write $5 million checks, you can stay alive a while. john: super pac dollars are not created equal. kasich doush and well, it will be in part because

of their super pac. republican candidates will board their planes and head for south carolina, where the campaigns are likely to spend the next week and a half before the primary. donald trump has started running the palmetto state, including this new one hitting ted cruz. >> what kind of man talks from both sides of his mouth on amnesty for illegals on national television and denies it? we are talking a million dollars in sweetheart loans from wall street. who runs a campaign accused of dirty tricks that tried to sabotage ben carson with false rumors. ted cruz, the worst kind of washington insider that cannot be trusted. mark: by south carolina standards, a relatively mild ad. john: is that the first negative

trump ad? mark: there has been one other. ours of thehe cont race the? john: it will be an ugly race. cruz to winump or here, maybe one or three others. but it is basically an establishment state, historically. newt gingrich was a weird character. was he establishment, not establishment? i do not really know. but the state has always been a establishment. in some case, donald trump and ted cruz should be on weak ground. among the establishment candidates, because there is a jumble of them, does that undercut the dynamics? mark: that kasich does well tonight, can he be killed early? andoes kasich go down there

find, particularly on the coast, the ability to be a player in the primary? will wantink kasich to stop jeb bush from winning the primary there. mark: i do not think he can. unless he turns out to be a stronger south carolina candidate. john: he has run the most positive campaign here. to stop jeb bush, he will need to run the most negative campaign. next, a voice from primaries past and present. mitt romney's former financial chair will be here right after these words from our sponsors. ♪

with a now, the former finance chairman of mitt romney's campaign, spencer zwick. as a republican that has not picked a candidate. >> have not picked a candidate. here representing america rising. -- wherelary clinton do you think she has come in the last couple of months, both through the efforts of bernie sanders, which are often overlapped? >> as well as america rising and the donors, you have a candidate in hillary clinton who was up 50 points a year ago in new hampshire. she would likely lose tonight to bernie sanders. donors are excited about that.

on the one hand, you have a self-proclaimed socialist who does not appear to own a hairbrush. then you have hillary clinton, who is the target of an fbi investigation. this is a woman who, a year ago, thought she would stands on the steps of the capitol to be sworn in by justices. i think you will see her in front of justices, but she will here, can the defendant please rise? for hillary clinton, this is shattering. when people get a chance to see what is behind the veil of hillary clinton and her family and the foundation, they will be frightened. john: i want to talk about the polls. you gave money to chris christie. i am confused. what is the story with this donation after the debates? >> i am neutral in the race. as mark said, i am working with america rising, a super pac that

is neutral. for speakerero ryan, and i'm closely aligned with governor romney. i am neutral. i have not declared i will support a candidate. john: you have not written a check to chris christie? >> i have not. john: how did that get reported? >> i was not the reporter. john: just an error? >> an error. mark: you know about momentum and fundraising. finisher of-place bush, kasich, and rubio, does it matter how far back they are for donors? i think it definitely matters how close they are. third place, but a distant third place, matters in a negative way. a close way matters in a positive way. mark: for a donor in chicago or

atlanta, how close do you have to be to start raising money? >> pretty close? mark: one point? what do donors think? expect that in order to continue to give money to their candidate, they have to feel they over-performed in new hampshire. that will be defined tonight by you guys. mark: it goes from our mouths to the donors' ears? that is a lot of responsibility. ton: you have been close governor romney. some people refer to you as a kiss-up to his son. >> i wish. john: do you think he will endorse? when? >> he is watching with great interest. i do not goes by that think how the world would be a different place if he was elected. i always tell people my

candidate did not run. he is watching with great interest. he will decide to endorse when the time is right. it is a deeply personal decision. i think he will have an impact on who stays in the race, who decides to get out. 2008, he lost new hampshire. very disappointing for him, but he decided the right thing was to get out of the race and support john mccain. those in themong republican establishment that looks on a donald trump or ted cruz nomination with concern? looks at the candidates on the republican side and says, thank goodness we are not putting up somebody like bernie sanders or hillary clinton. any one of them would be far better. run fore going to president, you might run a comb through your hair. mark: kids seem to do that look. >> that is less relevant than the social spark. -- socialist part.

mark: what is something you understand about donald trump that most people do not? >> donald trump is a brilliant political strategist. people say, what does his organization look like? he understands how to market and communicate. this is him making decisions. mark: do you feel comfortable with him being president of the united states? >> if he gets through the process, i am comfortable enough to know he can take on secretary clinton or bernie sanders. mark: but you are fully comfortable with him being president? >> if he makes it through this process, yes. next, some republicans with a lot of stakes in the granite game. ♪

♪ >> we are going to finish very strong. i cannot predict exactly what whatever, but i sent my magic bus to south carolina. guests knowsour that man extremely well, that is senator john sununu and steve laudeghan. thanks for coming today. if, as assumed, both of your candidates do pretty well tonight -- not win, but do really well, what happens next? >> the next thing we are going ,o do in the cruz campaign regardless of the outcome, a state that no one expects him to be surprised if

there is an upset tonight. with $21 inof iowa the bank and are rolling into south carolina with a massive amount of money in the bank. i expect a big win in south carolina. john: that is perhaps justified. how do you feel about rolling down the south carolina? >> the fact that you just used , if as assumed your guy does well, that means john kasich is the big winner tonight. there is no way you would have used that phrase three or four weeks ago. i.d.arted with zero name you and others probably thought he could not raise money or get on the stage. we are looking at a strong night for john kasich. he has put together a strong conservative message.

in south carolina, it is a great campaign, a great opportunity to carry that message of putting conservative principles to work, creating opportunity and economic growth. ofmarch 1, we have a slew states, vermont and others, where we have great momentum. i am looking forward to seeing what the results are tonight. john kasich ran a great campaign. contrary to popular belief, he has spent time in all the states i mentioned. exposure for his organization is great to carry whatever momentum we have from new hampshire forward. mark: a hypothetical here. let's say after tonight it is a three-man race, your guys and donald trump. we have not seen a lot of polling as of late. trump was leading literally in every states. rump wins big tonight.

in this hypothetical, it is a three-way. how do your candidates stop donald trump? >> you point out donald trump is the candidate of vulgarity, which over time is not going to work. mark: do you agree with that? >> i do agree. i think it is an issue. one of the reasons he underperformed so badly in iowa and perhaps again tonight is at the end of the day, when voters are making the choice, they say is this guy really serious? mark: what else would you say? ultimately, republican primary voters read thoroughly. they do not listen to what the labor unions or some left-wing group tell them to do.

senator cruz dominated that stage with his knowledge of the issues and the way he came back question.ea >> i will offer you something else. in your hypothetical, you have to ask yourself, where do chris christie and jeb bush's voters go? where do marco rubio's voters go? the answer is not donald trump. >> i do not think anybody's voters go to donald trump. i think his base will fallback overtime. ird, oneunds like one th third, one third. >> if john kasich is the nominee, he will win the general election. whoever the republican candidate is, other than donald trump, will win the election. donald trump will lose to hillary. the country will not adopt a

shock-jock. pottymouth. being a it is someone who does not have the maturity to be the leader of the free world. that is what it is about. your points of view, what do you think of jeb bush's prospects coming out of the state, heading into south carolina, a place where he could be strong? >> came out swinging at the ,ebate when he slammed trump when he talked about the widows from new jersey. it points to the fact that trump does not get the fundamentals of the constitutional property rights. at the end of the day, it will be the candidates with the most compelling message. i think senator cruz proved that at the debate the other night. >> for jeb bush and chris christie, it probably depends more on where they finish. if you finish in new hampshire you fewer votes than

started with seven months ago, it is hard to make a compelling case that pattern will change dramatically somewhere else in a country. >> governor christie, iran a primary against in 2009. i want to congratulate him of his takedown of marco rubio. john: thank you both for coming in. the bernie sanders campaign speaks to us just before the polls in new hampshire shutdown. ♪

7:00 most polls close at eastern.

but they stay open today until 8:00. talking about the election that bernie sanders campaign strategist. he is going to new york. what is he doing? guests: he is going to speak to the nation. he has some meetings planned. he has a set piece in brooklyn. we will talk about where he grew up. we packed as much as we possibly can. bernie has a powerful story and america doesn't know it. , --: you build for him , is he going to wait for secretary clinton to speak?

guest: i don't know. we haven't spoken about that yet. john: he has a very full day. why do so much? guest: we believe she is still the front runner and we have to work hard to beat her. we want america to hear his story. this is a great opportunity to tell it. , it: since you guys arrived looks like you are going to win a healthy victory here. has anything happened that has made you -- that concerns you about your own performance? where you said we have to fix that? guest: we have a lot of challenges. we recognize this. getting enough to sleep is one of them. i stipulate to that. we have had a good week. it has continued through the

week. i know we will be tested and it is going to be difficult. you don't see any flaw in your operations, not everything is perfect? guest: it hasn't been perfect. we have had to get used to secret service protection. theo from a small campaign, schedule is going to have to be doubt with in a much different way. that is a challenge. adapt, we will. mark: you're going to have more money than the other side probably. why are you the underdog? guest: we are up against a strong opponent. mark: what is strong about it? a year of theg in outsider? guest: she has the support of

the entire establishment. when we go from a one state campaign to a 12 stay campaign it is worth a lot. she is very well known. in has strong support african voters, latino voters. she is a champion of women. we understand. she is the person who still is the front runner in this race. you say to people of the establishment, we have to find another candidate? >> they are making a mistake. with voters he is the strongest candidates. we can bring people into the process, first-time voters, we can bring independence into the election. i would say to people concerned, let us prove it with voters. if they let us i think we will.

mark: i asked -- john: i asked you the other night, can you win nevada? guest: i think we can. we are working hard there. we went on television december 23. we have a tremendous story to tell. we understand it is going to be hard. hillary won it. she got the most people. john: unlike the clinton campaign, you are raising expectations? if we play the old game we're dead. expectation politics. we have to call things as we see it. if we do that we will connect better with voters. john: how are you spending tonight? guest: he has an event at concord high school. he will do that.

he is at the high school getting ready. i'm not nervous. i feel good about where we are. i think we are ready to take it forward. coming up, what john heilemann did this weekend. you can now listen to us on the fm.o on bloomberg 99.1 ♪

john: my buddy has had a tradition to come to new hampshire the sunday before the primary every four years, he

takes a drive. he used to do this with tim russert. in 2012 mike and i spent the primary driving around. it was sort of touching. andid it again this year revived the tradition and let the cameras roll as we talked about the new hampshire primaries. .> here we are sunday before the primary. the players are about to take the field. >> where'd you think this is going? where do you think this is going to happen? who knows? maybe the most profane thing of ever put on television. [applause] >> this is ridiculous. there is a super bowl today. go home.

you can sense a little movement. >> he is skating in his lane pretty well. guest: don't go so fast. >> it's a wealthy town. >> when is your first primary? >> 1972. i was standing next to ed muskie that morning. until the day i die he did not cry. one of the great staples of our political time. he got a snowflake in his eye. and theit is snowing deal was the event was going to be a dog sled race. muskie was going to signal the dogs to start. us,art says to a bunch of you have to come up. you're going to get a great lead

out of that. he says you are going to hear everybody up there go hush you muskie. [laughter] that is my most vivid memory. 76 is the first year i made fun of new hampshire in a column sing you go through the toll booth, never hand the toll bill, you will half an hour as they count their fingers and toes. look at them. 10 rows in front of my son at the springsteen concert. he was amazed. quite what you mean, i'm not going to go? >> you know me. forget it.

>> 1980. i remember that year. st. patrick's day in chicago. ted kennedy is in the back seat. they are throwing eggs, yelling and screaming. he looks to me and says i think that went pretty well, don't you? he knew it was done at that stage. >> what is your best new hampshire primary? >> 1992, bill clinton, the comeback kil kid. he was just electric. this primary is truly interesting. .his one >> where the independents going to go? >> you can see the wildcard here in this state. you look at a sanders rally and a trump rally and you can see the cross currents. >> hello.

>> when are you filing? >> 7:00. >> love that. >> you are ready. >> i have been looking for someone to drink with. john: joining us now, mike. that was fun. a good day. love to her menace about the times you have covered this before. what is going to be your memory of the few days he spent of year? guest: it will be how donald trump's presence and performance of the past several months has changed the dynamic of american politics, not just this primary. his personality.

i've never seen a candidate do a couple of things. learn as quickly as he has learned. and the fact that he comes to as a television producer. he produces every performance he is involved in. we went to the verizon center. that was an extraordinary performance from the music that to his appearance itself -- that played from his appearance itself. he does it with a half smile on his face. he gives the impression he is having fun. that translates. will be a long remembered. >> this is not felt like a primary.w hampshire agree.i there is something different about it. candidacydied in the

of trump and sanders. throughout the country, so much anxiety in the country about the longest war, i don't think the details of what happened to a lot of people's lives in 2008 in the crash have truly been , i don't think many candidates have alluded to it. people lost homes, a sense of secure future, of what is going to happen to their children's futures. that is the true volatility. piece,mentioned in the here was one of the more memorable primaries you've covered. you saw bill clinton, hillary clinton in manchester. give me your take on what you ?aw from the clinton family true: i saw one of the

thorough breads of american political history, former president clinton standing on ,is stage with his daughter introducing him and his wife is running for the presidency for the second time. i saw the same level of him that i, anger in saw in 2008 given how his wife's campaign is going. i saw her express in a different way the other day but express it was. he is a frustrated guy. john: interesting your reaction. he overshadowed her completely in that event. thank you for doing this and hanging out here. next, we have governor sununu in and their state of

mind's. ♪

mark: two former governors spoke this morning here in new hampshire hosted by our colleague al hunt. mr. sununu has not endorsed anyone but mr. greg is backing jeb bush. it is eighth fascinating thing to see. -- they had some fascinating things to say. guest: i don't think jeff recognized he had to have a sharper and more concise voice rather than running as a wonk.

now i think he is much more comfortable with what he has to do. john is running from the happy warrior campaign. he has a good message. it is a positive message. it is a question of how long he can stay in that message. with truck being the person in the lead, it is a good question. i suspect he will have to engage. there is another member running for president of our party i couldn't support. that is ted cruz. he is unethical. you can't trust his word. what he did in the senate was inexcusable. he hung the republicans out to dry for the purposes of self-aggrandizement.

>> how is it unethical? guest: you just -- when you are in the senate you don't gratuitously stick it to your colleagues for purposes of self gain. what marquis problem is is he stays on message. he stays on message to precisely. he has to loosen up a little bit. he is not conveying a comfort factor. when you sit down one-on-one he does convey. trump voters. i'm not saying they are not there. the pollsters are finding them. i don't find them. i only know five people supporting donald trump. thisnot understand electorate. i know they are there.

>> i doubt there are any in my family. i did a good job of raising my children. to them for joining us. joining us now, al hunt. representings are not just new hampshire establishment but the national establishment. al hunt: donald trump is bringing out people who haven't been at-bat that they are members of the establishment. the aging establishment to be sure. maybe the establishment was starting to settle. that is not true. white sununu said was trump would be a disaster and ted cruz would be worse. they are still searching. i don't think the establishment is going to settle with donald

trump until it becomes inevitable. john: if bernie sanders wins a what is there, establishment reaction to that? breakingis some magic point, 15-20 that is difference between hillary clinton is fine, hillary clinton is in trouble but she can pull it off or disaster, reset, bernie sanders has traction. that is probably after 20. john: why is it that high? mark: people hope to keep it under 20. >> i think they would like to keep it under 15. as far as bernie sanders is concerned, nevada is the place where he needs to prove himself. guest: will they rally around

bernie sanders? >> i don't think the establishment is there yet. >> can bush go forward if he finishes behind k-6 and rubio? >> they are deathly going forward. if k-6 is second they are on him witho military spending. he may run into dry land when it comes to money but the bush folks see him as a good punching bag to help in south carolina. think five of the six go forward? >> i think five go forward. the incentive is to stay in. unless you think trump is stay until the 15th

of march. there is no clear alternative right now. mark: thank you all. we will be back with who won the day, next. ♪

john: soon we will know the winners of the new hampshire primary. as of now, who won the day? mark: trump and sanders. they may be big winners. they will get credits for big wins. john: coming up, emily chang will talk about goldman sachs. we are working on

coverage in the palmetto state. including the upcoming contest for the republicans, getting ready for their big debate saturday. until tomorrow, thank you for watching. john: we had a good week. a good time here. mark: we will be in south carolina for the debate. we have to go to nevada for caucuses than everything goes wide open. john: we have more politics here in february. mark: see you tomorrow. thank you for watching. thank you for everyone here at the radisson. sayonara. ♪

>> from our studios in new york, this is "charlie rose." charlie: the new hampshire primary is one day away. donald trump and bernie sanders maintain commanding leads in the polls. marco rubio, after finishing a strong third in iowa, is now having to rebut a poor debate performance. donald trump and marco rubio reacted to the debate today in separate interviews on cbs today on "cbs this morning." the story coming out of new hampshire so far is one you have a huge lead, and the second story is marco rubio suffered in the debate, all of the analysts