mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" to ted cruz, we will need you to the campaign tomorrow, around 9 a.m. that would be great. ♪ it looks like somebody has the case of the fridays, sports fans. keeping with the finest south carolinians tradition, the presidential campaign is turning to a lowdown, pre-staging a primary that look like a combination of kill bill 1 and kill bill 2 but more bloody. donald trump has taken a big south carolina lead. he is at 36% compared to ted cruz at 20%, marco rubio with 15%.

being dedicated professional chroniclers of politics, we look at the traditions. the fire is coming so fast and furious that we cannot keep track of it. trump had a twitter assault on ted cruz. "how can ted cruz be an evangelical christian when he lies so much?" also, "if ted cruz does not stop cleaning up his act, i have standing to sue him for not being a natural born citizen." cruz is under fire for having to pull this ad hitting marco rubio because it included a woman who was once in good standing in adult entertainment. even softcore is too hard. meanwhile, cruz is going after hillary clinton with the spoof

of "office space." here is part of it. we paired it with the original scene so you can appreciate it. ♪ >> ♪ damn, it feels good to be a clinton the clinton never needs to explain a real clinton knows veterans titles and hillary does not know what they do ♪ john: mark, i think we all could appreciate that piece of work. my question to you is if that or any other punches are landing? mark: we are over a week away from the primary. we have seen some of those

attacks and there are plenty more out there. it is hard with all these candidates. it is hard to break through. donald trump has proven he is masterful at breaking through with his attacks. i think it is going to be hard, but i predicted by next wednesday, there will be a lot of attacks that will hurt at least one or two of these guys. john: this office space ad is a cult classic. it is the case of that a reason for an ad like that is to cut through the clutter. there is so much negative advertising. that will get attention from people like us. it is too early to say. people are throwing punches of all kinds, trying to see what will land. we don't know what actually landed yet. i don't know what any of these things will. mark: something to land -- you have to have a cutting attack

that is cleverly done. you have to have the victim kind of overreact or under react or do something that plays into it. then you need some luck that it latches on and captures the imagination of voters. it will be a tall order. john: i think you need something that is targeted in the sense that these candidates all know there is very clear slices of the south carolina electorate. is there an attack that would cut with a particular part of the electorate? that could be more telling. mark: there is always a lot of war metaphors used in politics, but the use has gone into hyperdrive every four years. four out of the five leading republican candidates believe their path to victory includes becoming the dominant national

security candidate. here is a little bit of how they have been trying to get contrast. >> the fact of the matter is jeb has no foreign-policy experience. he was governor a long time ago. >> when you compare marco rubio's experience of going to committee hearings once in a while, that is not foreign-policy experience. >> these 50 young soldiers have a target on their back. i guarantee you general george patton -- it would not have been 50. we went not be fighting for the rest of our lives. we would not have been over there for 15 years. 15 days, maybe, not 15 years. >> the next time a jihadist walks into a recruiting center in chattanooga, he will encounter the business end of firearms wielded by dozens of marines. we will have a president willing to utter the words radical islamic terrorism. mark: jeb bush is summoning the powers of the former commander

in chief, george w. bush to appear at a rally. that will be his first foray in public policy in quite some time. who is the most potential by next saturday to be seen as the dominant commander-in-chief candidate? john: none of them have any foreign-policy credentials. i think jeb bush because of his brother potentially could claim the mantle. and lindsey graham. i think ted cruz because of his rhetoric could potentially get there the way newt gingrich did in 2012. the others will be very hard. mark: i think trump is seen as strong and has proven in other states in polling and voting, voters see him as strong. the harder one is marco rubio. he talks about having the best experience and judgment.

all of them are going for it hard. i will say cruz is taking the most heat because he has the libertarian streak. he voted against the defense bill. this is a huge battle. john: he wanted to carpet bomb somebody. mark: the other thing i would say about bush other than lindsey graham, is he knows his foreign-policy stuff. john: i think bush may have it. yesterday, we showed you in which south carolina republicans recorded the sights and sounds of donald trump. coughing up a storm. cue trump last night in florida. mr. trump: i will not use foul language. i will not do it. they are saying do it, do it. i'm not. even if it is not a bad word, if it is little off, they kill me. i will never do it again. i will never even copy something what they asked me to say. john: will the donald actually be able to refrain from profanity?

why on earth is he claiming he will? mark: i think he will probably stay on the wagon decently for a while. he is a smart guy. he does in the south -- iowans and people in new hampshire are more willing to except this. he can engage in straight talk and nonpolitical correctness in the south without using that language. i'm quite certain that word would have hurt him in south carolina. john: it is a question of discipline. he is from queen so i don't know if he is capable. what could hurt him is the

profanity ties into other things of his life and lifestyle. multiple wives, things that are not uncommon in new york city. i think that picture could be damaging and not just in south carolina, but the bible belt. you should try to do the easy thing. i don't know if he would be able to. mark: we will be right back with gender-neutral debates. highlights from last light in milwaukee after this. ♪ mark: the great debate moments

mark: the great debate moments of hillary clinton. a handful of soundbites that stand out namely the time rick

lazio walked up to her with a pledge and then barack obama's classic of you are likable enough, hillary from 2008. last night, it seems bernie sanders got dangerously close to making the did he go too far highlight reel? mr. sanders: secretary of state for four years, you have a bit of a streak. that is a low blow. do senators have a right to disagree with the president? have you? i suspect you haven't. mark: given that the clinton campaign recently played the sexism card against sanders, including the time we talked about shouting. why are they playing the sexism card today? john: it is a little tricky. they got hammered the last time they did it and it was bogus. i think they are little gun shy. the truth is i think sanders is cranky, condescending, obama-like.

they don't quite get you all the way to sexism. in this instance, there were other attacks. there are so many other things to attack them on last night. mark: i think the madeleine albright comment could come into play. that would have been taking a risk. i have to say, even leaving gender aside, sanders was pretty caustic. i'm not sure over the long-term that is his best bet. he still struggles to smile, seemed gracious, seem like someone who has a human connection. john: i thought sanders was tired last night. i think they both seemed tired

at the beginning. by the end, it seems to get more heated. she maintained composure any kind of let his irritation show. it did not kind of explode but he has to watch that. mark: the other thing about the moments was i think hillary clinton handled them well. she could have in those instances made more of those moments and tried to exploit them in the instance. she did not. i'm not saying they were up there with you are likable enough, they were pretty costly. john: you can see these two candidates are getting to the place where candidates get. they do not like each other and bernie does not like her now. it is starting to show on the edges. if you are a reporter, you are used to getting spammed with statements and press release forms. last night, the clinton and sanders campaigns pumped out fast checks faster than chocolates on a conveyor belt. today, there were more press releases from the clinton side on the commander-in-chief gap and passed criticisms of the obama leadership. team sanders fired back at clinton on her positions on

unaccompanied minors for super pacs and her wall street support. it was not that long ago when both sides in this race said this campaign would never ever possibly be negative. now that it is fiction, it has been dispelled, what accounts for this explosion of fact checking, surrogate attacks and drive-by press releases? mark: clinton is still trying to find frames. they are trying to attack and get their people out there and take advantage of surrogates. on the sanders side, they're pugilistic. if you punch us, we will punch you back. both sides are in this childish spiral that everything is a huge outrage, horror. john: they are both pugilistic and highly moralistic. they get on their high horse. yesterday, because of that fuselage we talked about from african-american surrogates against senator sanders, they have their backs up going into the debate and the debate got them or spun up. the clintons will always happily dive in.

that is how it is. today, the bad news hillary herald, it turns out last fall the state department opened an inquiry in the clinton foundation during the time hillary clinton was secretary of state. the state department will release 550 more of her e-mails this weekend. three, this week, the fbi formally confirmed its investigation into hillary clinton's e-mail server.

does this drip, drip, drip we have experienced this week, is this incremental noise or a different phase of peril? mark: i think for most people it is just noise. it is hard to differentiate. the problem is the omnipresence of this means if bernie sanders wins nevada, does better than she does in other contests, the fact that this could break at any minute, there could be a confluence of major development that could be very perilous for her. john: one of the biggest things she will have to rely on to win is the superdelegate. the establishment having confidence that she is a better nominee. the establishment confidence in her, that is the biggest thing that makes people nervous about making her the nominee.

that is bad for. nothing happened this week that made it worse, but there is something out there that could be a big problem. mark: with the possible exception of bill clinton, not one superdelegate could say either they are for sanders or we need somebody else. john: what happened in vegas -- "new york times" reporter adam nagourney, after this. ♪

john: our first guest comes from my old west coast stomping grounds, los angeles, california.

it is adam nagourney. he is now back from a reporting trip to las vegas which is kind of like my reporting trips to vegas. i know what happens. he is going to talk about what he learned about the democratic race in nevada. adam, give us an overview. i want to hear about what you ate. how are the nevada caucuses shaping up? adam: on the democratic side -- if we were to have this conversation six months ago, it is not that big of a race. clinton will probably win iowa. it is way out in the west and nobody wants to go, but this is a very contested race after a loss in iowa, getting thumped in new hampshire. this is her way to test if she is back on track but it is also a place where she has been popular. bernie sanders will try to expand his appeal. it is a much more diverse audience.

it is a fairly new phenomenon in nevada. we don't really trust any of the polls. being out there, it seems to me this is a very, much more close election than we would have thought. one of the signs of it is there is a lot of energy for sanders. you guys were seeing in new hampshire and iowa. mark: when people think about

this electorate, they think about unions, hispanic voters. where are sanders' opportunities to do better than he was poised to do a few months ago? adam: i would worry about younger hispanic voters. and i know the sanders people are focusing on them. he probably will do better in the northern part of the state where obama did well. i think where i would be looking is that. the other thing is nevada is one of those states where the same day registration as there is in iowa, which makes it harder to figure out what the electorate is. it is making the clinton people very nervous. in 2008, 30,000 people showed up. clinton might have won the popular vote narrowly, but obama won the delegate count. one of the things that are making the clinton people nervous is the possibility that all this energy out there that we are seeing is going to show up at the polls, the caucus sites. john: one of the last times we were out there for the democratic debate in october, we talked to john ralston about what bernie sanders had in terms

of. ground operations he said nothing back in october. now we spoke to tad devine, and he says he has more people that hillary clinton. does sanders have a real ground operation there? can it go toe to toe with the clinton operation? adam: the fact of the matter is clinton is on the ground here in nevada six months longer than him. she has more experience, more organization you need to do to get ready for these kind of caucuses. the clinton people are not saying how many people they have. sanders says they have 90 full-time people, more volunteers. i accept that they have more volunteers. i went to a debate -- i went to a sanders site and then to a clinton site. sanders' side was packed with people, even younger people. the clinton side was older. i believe categorically there are more bodies on the ground. it is not a matter of having the bodies, it is a matter of having the kind of organization of

knowing what to do on the finding the right people. that is harder to do from the outside. i'm sure he knows numbers but we really don't know. the actual campaign chairman for hillary clinton ran the state in 2008 for the campaign and has a real interest in making sure that he gets what will be the first solid win for his candid in the cycle. mark: bill clinton has a big relationship with new hampshire. he has a pretty rich relationship with that state. how much do you expect to see him and how much influence will he have over hispanic and union voters?

adam: one of the things hillary clinton has going for her is bill clinton. he is out here all the time. he golfs here a lot. when i went inside, i did go and see bill clinton at an event. there were people lined up for hours waiting to see him. there is something else to remember about nevada -- it's a very transient state. people keep moving in and out. the voter population today is a lot different than 2008. i would not assume there is a connection to bill clinton. i think that is really the big question. john: you can vote on the casino floors. does bill clinton have more influence at the bellagio or the las vegas suburbs? adam: the suburbs. there was a big fight about this last night because the culinary workers, which represented a lot of the workers on the strip -- where the caucuses were held at casinos where people were working and go caucus. clinton supporters tried to get that turned out unsuccessfully. bill clinton really brought it.

i think you will see more of bill clinton in the suburbs than the floor of the bellagio. john: that is almost impossible to believe. that will not be true for you. you are a big consumer of delicious substances. thank you. up next, a clinton surrogate and a sanders surrogate. if you're watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on bloomberg 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

mark: joining us now, two democrats not unfamiliar to television viewers -- our guest representing bernie sanders and gregory meeks, representative of hillary clinton. thank you for joining us, congressman. congressman, we will start with you. there is some dispute the tween the two campaigns. what is the clinton campaign view on bernie sanders' record on civil rights? guest: john lewis has spoken on it. bernie says he was there. that was fine. he was not as prominence. i had no idea as he was out there during the civil rights movement, and that's good. what has his record been? even if you voted right, where have you been -- mark: are you saying you do not know if he has been a leader or he is not a leader?

representative meeks: i'm saying he has voted, may be voted be right way, but i do not know what the time when he has caucused with the congressional black caucus on issues going into the streets, and things of that nature, and that has not happened until recently. historically, we have always had a partner in hillary clinton. she has been out there and out front, trying to help get democrats elected, african-american democrats, because it makes a difference in governing and politics and achieving what we tried to achieve for the constituency we try to represent. john: just name one or two dove areas of policy that matter to african-americans -- one or two areas of policy that matter to african-americans where senator sanders and secretary clinton have a difference? representative meeks: i have been in congress for 18 years,

and i served on a committee, and i do not believe he has had that kind of reach. i do think he has voted the right way. senator clinton has been leading the right way. health care. she has been there a long time, children's health in particular, economic development -- john: i understand all of that. i'm curious. are there places where you look at policy and say, bernie sanders was to take this in a direction that is not as good as the direction hillary clinton wants to take us? representative meeks: they both have futuristic positions. the question with senator sanders is, how do you do it? how do you get it done? the other says we are going to do it this way and has a plan how we get it done. that is the difference, in my

estimation. one is dreaming about what should be and the other is practical about this is what we need to accomplish and this is how we are going to do it and this is how we are going to pay for it and this is who is going to work for us. mark: congressman, i want to start with the politics of this -- you are pretty savvy about campaigns. what do you think the clinton campaign is doing regarding senator sanders and his issues and history related to nonwhite communities? guest: john lewis, a colleague and a friend, someone i love very much, and i know that senator sanders feels the same way. he is a link not only to the past, but a look at the future. when you look at the civil rights movement, it was aspirational, not just for african-americans, but all people. they lead and they had a

movement. and when he talks about going down the road as a goal, it is a movement, a chance for the american people to grab their democracy and deal with the fundamental issues we can't deal with right now. part of the problem is the status quo where we take to dub steps -- two steps forward on a particular issue, and we take one step back and we are in the same place. what bernie is saying is we need to be aspirational, we need to have a goal. that is what these civil rights movement was about and that is what this political revolution is about, taking this country back. that resonates with all people, and i hope that people will take the opportunity to look at that and not be dismissed as, oh, it

can't be done, it is high in the sky. that is the problem with the clinton campaign. trying to come to grips with the reality. the reality is that perhaps the aspirations, the desires, the needs of the american people are ahead of the campaign. john: let me ask you this question. pretend i am a hispanic voter who lives in nevada. i woke up to you and say, senator sanders, i'm thinking of voting for him. tell me one thing that senator sanders has done in his political career that would give me faith that he would reflect the interests of hispanic voters in nevada? representative grijalva: the most important thing he has done is be historically consistent. this is not a man who changed his tune based on what political wind was blowing. let me just saving most

important issue for latinos -- yes, immigration is critical. that has to be fixed. bernie is there. it is not one of the best positions on how to move forward with immigration reform. economic equality, economic fairness -- john: congressman -- representative grijalva: that strikes at the latino community. we are a future looking community and i would say to that voter, you want consistency? you don't want any flip-flopping? do you want someone who -- with the assurances he is making to you, the assurances he will keep? mark: thank you, congressman. representative grijalva: that is -- representative meeks: let me just say this.

i heard my good friend and colleague as if things have stood still as if barack obama never existed and he has done nothing. if you think about where we were in 2008 and where we are now, you would have to say there is definite progress. we still have work to do. what hillary clinton will do is building upon that. progress. mark: senator sanders got some criticism from some quarters saying that he would be a better president for civil rights than barack obama. what hillary clinton? representative meeks: better than barack obama? no, she would build on what obama has done. i do not think anyone talking about race relations -- he would be better than barack obama with race, better than hillary clinton with women, better than take kennedy with human rights -- ted kennedy with human

rights. mark: what is the difference between better than an building on? representative meeks: the fact of the matter was, if senator sanders was out there to help us elect democrats -- for the fact of the matter, he was an independent. when you help elect democrats as hillary clinton has done, that is how you it things done. she has been out electing democrats so we can give the president a partnership that he or she could not have. so we can build upon what president obama has done to get even greater gains. that's not putting something out there that is not real. that is how you really get something done in washington, d.c. when you elect a president without help, without working with the senate, without working with the house, you can't get it done. and barack obama for six years has had an opposition from the republican party to stop them from even further progress. john: congressman, you had something to say? representative grijalva: my good friend, mr. meeks, i admire him very much -- representative meeks: mutual.

representative grijalva: i disagree with the president on fast track. bernie disagrees. that is a difference. it is not demeaning or anything. this trade agreement has been hurting workers, wages, and the economy of our nation. i do not know where mr. meeks stood on that, but i was against it, bernie was against it, and those are the things that elect people, taking positions, being right about your positions, and being consistent with your positions, not changing from one day to another. mark: ok, thanks to you both. we will be right back to break down more of last night's democratic presidential debate after this. ♪

john: journey is now from washington to talk about the democratic showdown in milwaukee last night, margaret. what were your big takeaways from what went down? margaret: three things. hillary clinton presenting herself as a much calm her, cooler, more and command, bigger -- you know, i think in weeks past she has been trying to match sanders' anger, and it looked like she was running scared. and in the past, we saw her

trying to marginalize many sanders is a single issue candidate until voters he is not being honest with them about what he can deliver. we are going to see that more and more. we saw a little bit of it today in fact. this is a theme she is building. and bernie sanders, a side we have not seen much of on the campaign trail, although if you have ever covered the senate, you have probably seen that side of bernie sanders. he can get a little testy and prickly when he does not like the way things are going and he made sure she knew it. it was interesting to see that tied of him as well. mark: this notion of bernie

sanders as a dishonest man -- is that to win undecided voters? or do people think, this is an honest guy. that is part of what they like him? margaret: she is not accusing him of lying so much is selling something that, from her experience, there is absolutely no way it can come to pass. i think she is trying to get to those voters who may have been more for her once and have been unable not to gravitate to his message in energy and enthusiasm and she is trying to pop that hot air balloon and bring them back down to her. mark: it's pretty close to what she said about barack obama in 2008 when she said "just words." is it reasonable it will be more effective against bernie sanders than it was barack obama? margaret: one of the reasons that he is -- bernie sanders is 74 years old and white. that is not actively part of her message. he is a democratic socialist. he is not campaigning to the

center of america, and the conventional notion of uniting two sides is bipartisan compromise. bernie sanders is saying republicans are wrong and i'm right. that was not really barack obama's message. john: it seemed to me what bernie sanders try to do, the most damaging thing for sanders, that she is the rightful inheritor of barack obama for legacy, and things that he has written on twitter, the fining progressivism -- defining progressivism in a way that excludes president obama. do you think the clinton campaign understands they may be onto something here? margaret: i think they absolutely understand the potential power of it. the question is, is it a powerful tool ahead of the contest where there are heavily

black voting populations, or a better, broader message in areas with working-class voters? they do seem to have assessed it should work to their advantage ahead of south carolina. the question -- and we will see after we see the results in south carolina -- is it a message that has legs beyond there? mark: once upon a time, people thought that hillary clinton could wrap this nomination up in february. what you think is the best case for hillary clinton going up into march with these two contest, or in terms of the outcomes and the symbolic place that she could be asserting clear dominance? margaret: in south carolina, it's not just a matter of winning. it's winning by enough of a margin to send a very clear

signal she is back on track. and the real question, the sanders campaign is betting what is happening among black democratic voters in south carolina is different than what is happening among voters somewhere else. you have this use cut out, this magic under 35, middle-aged, and over 65. until we see how that breaks out, it's impossible to assess how quickly she can wrap it up. i will think anybody, including the clintons see march is definitive. i am not sure which end of march. probably the back end of march. john: the other day, the former press secretary and our former colleague in journalism jay carney when on tv and basically said, barack obama is for hillary clinton. what is your sense of whether or not that is true? margaret: they have always had that in their back pocket, kind of the rate last -- kind of the break glass in the case of emergencies. i think it is entirely possible,

but we are not anywhere close to there yet. if i know president obama well, he thinks that hillary owes it to her party and herself to campaign better than she has been. john: what do you know about barack obama's relationship with bernie sanders? margaret: very little. i know very little about president obama's relationship with bernie sanders. mark: bernie sanders as a candidate -- is he getting better? was the debates as good as it's going to get? he has improved, but is it better? margaret: it was not a great night for him. he seemed to have plateaued, but he may have been waiting to see how to respond to her, anticipating she was looking for a new strategy.

his message really is consistently the same. he seems to be a little bit more comfortable on the debate stage, but the question will be his ability to retool when the audience in the states changes, as it is about to do. john: all right, the great margaret talev, thank you for doing this.

mark: in politics as in life, you have to feed the beast and in this case the beast is south carolina and the food is the trough of political tv ads. the nominating contest turns south and with so much money being spent on behalf of the candidates, we turn to ken goldstein to put it in perspective.

ken: so far in this race, more than 250 million dollars has been spent on tv ads. that is $100 million more than kerry and bush spent battling each other in 2004. write to rise, the super pac supporting jeb bush, has spent over $70 million on television. >> jeb bush is a leader who will keep our country safe areas -- country safe. ken: more than his dad spent in his entire campaign over michael dukakis in 1988. >> this is my mission and i will compete it. ken: yes, i'll let comes first, but in new hampshire -- iowa comes first, but in new hampshire, $80 million was spent. now, there are twice as many delegates at stake, but only a third of as much money will be spent on tbs. the vast majority of money spent in south carolina on the republican side. the biggest spenders? write to rise on behalf of jeb bush followed by the rubio super pac and the rubio campaign. in the past you that weeks, team cruz has come on strong, while his super pac allies have chipped in $2.4 million. donald trump has spent a little over $1.7 million with another half-million to come in the next

week. there may be love in the year valentines weekend, but also a lot of attacks. six out of 10 ads that cared less time around at this time were negative. mark: we will be back with who won the week. ♪

john: mark, i have been thinking hard about a question i have never asked you before, but i can't. oh, instead i will ask who won the week question mark mark: john kasich had a good week. jeb bush, in some ways, had a good week. but donald trump, bernie sanders, can't take that away from them. they won the new hampshire primary. in much more commanding positions now for their party nominees. john: and jim gilmore, getting out of the race, it's like a battered spouse relationship. i think he won the week by exiting from a clearly dysfunctional and unhealthy relationship. he can go back to his life in virginia and be happy. mark: tomorrow, the republican debate in south carolina.

note jim gilmore. donald trump will be there in the contest. and we will be in south carolina next week largely, covering the republicans. john: that's going to be fine. are we going to go to lizard ticket? oh, i love lizard ticket. coming up on "bloomberg west," emily chang and tech adventures. mark: thanks for watching. have a great weekend. sayonara. ♪

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