tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg February 18, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EST
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john: i'm john heilemann. matt: and i'm mark halperin. and with all due respect, this -- due respect to hope and election is now hope and strange. a glory, glory hallelujah hello to all of you from columbia, south carolina. we have new poll numbers from the palmetto state survey for you tonight. but first, once again the news of the day has almost everyone saying oh, my goodness. many people have tried unsuccessfully to stop donald trump and
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today, one of the most popular man who rallies crowds of thousands, decided to risk his own political capital donald, sayinghe this when asked if a good catholic could vote for the front-runner. pope francis: i am not sure. i will leave that up to your judgment. then, a person who only thinks about making walls again again and not about making , bridges, is not a christian. matt: shortly after that shot, donald trump responded, expressing outrage over the pontiff's remarks. mr. trump for a religious leader : to question a person's faith. it's disgraceful. no leader, especially a religious leader, should have a right to question another man's faith, especially when they feed all sorts of false information into
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him. they are using the pope as a pawn and they should be ashamed of themselves -- that's the mexican government -- they should be ashamed of doing so especially when so many lives are involved and when illegal immigration is so dangerous, and so bad for the united states. ok? period, that's it. matt: so, john, it's not all that common for a presidential candidate to take on any religious leader, let alone the pope -- john: oh, my god, i just want to say, is this campaign weird or what? fear and loathing in vatican city. look, here is the reality. although south carolina has a big religious population, they are evangelicals, not necessarily catholics. donald trump is making a calculated gamble. taking on a popular pope on some
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levels seems totally nuts. willt is not clear that it ort him in south carolina even among voters in the catholic church. matt: i was in the room when trump did it. he read his statement and some said it was impromptu. look, trump's brand is based on strength. we say that all the time. the pope did lash out and challenge him. donald trump is famous for counterpunching. if he wins south carolina big, it will mean he will have taken on one of the most popular figures in the world and not only survived and thrived, but it will help him in the south where the percentage of catholic voters is lower. john: in the words of our friend chris matthews, the pope plays hardball. the good book, matthew 7 to be precise, famously admonishes the faithful, do not judge as you would not be judged.
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-- or you two would be judged. brouhaha is not to the first time his faith has been questioned. >> what do you think of the way he's talked about his religious beliefs? >> i'm not sure he's such a religious person personally. i'm sure he hays lot of respect for religion, but not all of us are religious people. >> i think he's relatively honest but i don't believe him on his, what he says about his religion. >> raise your hand if you disagree with them and think that mr. trump is a religious person. anybody disagree? you all said you didn't think he was as religious as he says he is. raise your hand if you are troubled by that.
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>> i am not troubled that he's not religious. i'm troubled that he says he is religious. >> and we asked some people who attended that rally who they sided with. guess who they picked? >> who do you side with in this? the pope or donald trump? >> donald trump. >> why is that? >> he is a religious person. he shouldn't be saying you're not christian. >> he has no right to question mr. trump's faith. >> i think the pope has gotten a lot of wrong information. >> who do you side in with this one? >> definitely donald trump. >> the pope. >> the pope. >> trump. >> trump. john: so the people at the trump rally, mark, apparently siding with mr. trump. the larger question is how likely is there to be a backlash against what trump has done today and if there is, how big will it be? matt: i was sitting in the room when it happened. again, it was his rally, so most of the people supported him. in a normal candidates in any
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normal situation, there would be a little bit of oohing and ahing and people holding their breath. there was none of that. i haven't seen every tweet since this happened but people now fact that trump takes risks and goes where most people wouldn't dare to go. i don't anticipate a backlash, not just in the south, but anywhere. matt: i totally agree with you. pope's talked about the influence on campaigns in the past. i catholic candidate -- a catholic candidate in the same position would be in a much tougher bind. has very little downside
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to doing this. i'm with you in predicting very little backlash whatsoever in a republican nomination contest. maybe the general election would be different. john: you might think that the other republican candidates would see this battle royale between trump and pope and see a chance to make at least a dent in the teflon don. but reaction says mr. trump might be preaching to the choir. jeb bush said building a wall on the mexican border was, unchristian. rubio declined to question his rival's faith and ted cruz simply said, "i'm not going to get in the middle of that." so john, what should the vast north american viewing audience note from these reactions? john: it's been a wild and woolly week in south carolina there have been a lot of tough
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shots taken at trump and the others over everything. i think it suggests that in many ways on certain issues, especially this issue of immigration, the republican party is donald trump's party now and none of these guys are going to be on the other side of trump here because the pope's comments could as a matter of fact as a matter of substance apply equally to them. mark: i tell you this. now going to dominate the news of the day leading up to the primary. hadn't done it, the news was going to be dominated by marco rubio's polling and governor haley's endorsement. trump could have ridden this thing all the way to saturday. i think some of the others just say we don't want to create a fight with him that we're not going to win. trump will dominate today and maybe on to saturday.
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mark: we have some brand-new democratic numbers from our brand-new bloomberg politics south carolina poll and they show hillary clinton way, way up there in the palmetto state, over bernie sanders. the racial breakdown of the 403 likely democratic voters that we surveyed was 50% african-american and 40% light.
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-- white. voter preferences cut across the line. clinton crushes sanders among black voters, but sanders leads clinton 45%-40 2% among likely quite voters. -- white voters. so, obviously being way behind hillary clinton is not good news for bernie sanders. is any of this good news for sanders or is it all just bad, bad, bad? mark people have to remember : that it's about delegate accumulation. one of these is going to come out march 1 with a lead in delegates. i don't think sanders thinks he can win in south carolina but he needs to show people that there is a sanders coalition that involves young people, first-time voters, dominating men holding his own with women, , especially young women, and i think this poll suggests that if he gets some more momentum, he can build such a coalition. john: yeah, i mean, look, it's
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the case that barack obama in 2008 was never able to win the white vote against hillary clinton. he obviously dominated the black vote and they more or less split the hispanic vote. if sanders comes out of this winning the white vote, it gives him a card to play. and a big piece of a coalition. maybe it's not enough for the nomination. but it's really important. then the question is can he get enough of the nonwhite vote? he is probably getting too little right now. he would need to move that number up but he's within striking distance. if he wins here in nevada and that percentage of african-americans rises in south carolina he could suddenly be a real threat to hillary clinton over the long term. let's look ahead to march 1. 11 states hold primaries and caucuses. 822 delegates in play that day, ase than four times as many those allocated in the four
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february contests combined. we have grouped those four -- i'm sorry, grouped those march 1 states into categories -- those racially similar to new hampshire and iowa, a.k.a., mostly white, those with sizeable african-american populations like south carolina and those like we putnd colorado, which into a separate group because of the sizable hispanic populations there. does our poll give sanders reason on to feel optimistic or pessimistic about march 1? mark: i think there are two things to say to that. the world is going to be a different place after saturday. if he wins in nevada it gives , him momentum and we have to think a new about what his potential is. she's still the front runner. second, there is no winner take all in these states. it's all a proportional allegation of delegates. -- allocation of delegates.
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there are places in these states with high, for instance, african-american communities, where hillary clinton will do quite well but other places with , a large white community where sanders will do well. he doesn't need to get close to parity even in the states that are most diverse with a lot of delegates. john: that's true. if sanders loses here in nevada on saturday he could be in real trouble because hillary clinton will almost certainly win the south carolina primary and go into march 1 with a huge momentum. if, however, sanders wins nevada and the south carolina contest is up for grabs and more in play then than it is now, if he can come close to beating her in south carolina, the world should shift a little bit on its axis in these states. the combination of his strength with white voters and again if , he can push up his numbers with african-american voters he could get himself in a situation where he could end up march 1 deadlocked with her. he won't have a knockout blow,
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but if he ends up deadlocked with her march 1, you are looking for a long delegate slog all the way to june and that's the kind of fight that bernie sanders maybe, just maybe could ultimately win. mark: and one thing he should do is spend money in those african-american states. watch for that. before hillary clinton gets the focus here in south carolina, next week, she has to first worry about nevada which, as we all know, has its caucus on saturday. today, clinton launched another blitz to try to woo voters in nevada, the silver state. congressman luis gutierrez of illinois penned an op-ed for univision that claims that withe sanders voted republicans on anti-immigration legislation over the past decade. there was also this eye-catching and that is now on the air in
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the silver state. >> my parents had to move different places. >> come here. >> i'm scared they're going to deport me. [applause] >> i'm going to do everything i can so you don't have to be scared, so you don't have to worry about what happens. i feel really, really strongly that you are being very brave and you have to be brave for them, too, because they want you to be happy, they want you to be successful, they don't want you to worry too much. let me do the worrying. i'll do all the worrying. is that a deal? i'll do the worrying and i'll do everything i can to help. [applause] i'm hillary clinton and i approved this message.
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john: we've played that whole ad even though it was a minute long because there was no way to cut it up without draining it of the emotion. john, with that ad, with the clinton campaign attacking senator sanders' record, where does the fight stand between the two democrats over the crucial latino vote? john: i can tell you, out here it's really heating up. we saw about a week or more ago the clinton campaign roll out the big guns in the african-american surrogate war against bernie sanders, and now they have rolled out the big guns in the hispanic surrogate war. you have luis gutierrez with that very strong op-ed brought -- op-ed that brought up sanders lack of support on immigration votes. i think they're unleashing the hounds right now on sanders and it could have a real effect on his ability to win in this state.
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mark: yeah, tonight they're both appearing in a town hall focusing on latino issues. there is also no doubt that both with the latino and african-american community, the sanders campaign has been playing symbolically pretty well. they have enough endorsements to make this at least a symbolic contest. john: yeah. like i say, some are starting to look a little harder at his record. that could be a real problem for him. coming up, governor bobby jindal, his thoughts on the race when we come back.
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mark: our next guest has no dog but he is fight, still interested in the outcome. the former chairman of the republican party has brought with him all of the mail he's gotten from the candidates at his home in just the last couple days. you are getting a lot of voter contact. >> this primary has always been good for south carolina. first in the south. since 1980 we've been doing it. it's been a scathing fight so far. you go to iowa, new hampshire, nevada but in south carolina we want to see how you take a punch, not how you throw one and we've seen some punches thrown this week. mark: do you suspect the punch by donald trump will help or hurt him? >> help him. fight onnto this
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illegal immigration and tapped into the anger in washington. some of us were hoping it would be a discourse that was kind of civil. he's going to win the day here. i talked to two catholic elected officials, pretty serious people about today and they wouldn't go public against their pontiff but they agreed trump is not going to have a problem with that. mark: they scored it like i did, -1, pope-0. one said if trump wins our primary in new hampshire, that's bad for the primary. if trump wins is that bad for the south carolina primary? >> let me tell you something. we have elections for a reason. there are going to be about 700,000 republicans show up, 100,000 more than in 2012. if trump wins, the republican party needs to pay attention to what trump has done and brought to the table. i admire 700,000 people coming
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to a rally, even if some of them aren't registered to vote. he's created some interest, , good, bad, or indifferent. created crowds we've never seen that big in south carolina unless it was a sporting event or the president of the united states. the democrat party has got some cash the republican party has some people that are angry. mark: we don't know how jeb bush is going to do but he's not going to win the primary. what is the problem here? >> i love the bush family and i'm not sure if it was a good idea to tackle it. they're patriots, compatriots. -- competitors. their mother is in today. their brother was in. i contend the brother is two and a half years late, bush 43, in getting back on the trail with us because i think he would have had to set it up that far. jeb has had to carry some baggage into the race. he got the downside without the upside, which was the popularity of his brother, especially here.
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i saw jeff on tv today. he is giving it 100%. i got mail from one of his opponents today, so i see what he is trying to do. and he isa bush, going to compete until the last minute. but i suspect single digits and i expect bad news come saturday. mark if ted cruz does not finish : a strong second here, finishes third or fourth somehow, what does that say about his viability in the southern states he's been counting on? >> 10 is a good character. he and trump have probably spent the most money early on in data mining. i don't think ted is over. he's got something to say. he certainly has what i would term the religious right, certainly has their attention. he's been there. i don't think it's over for him.
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i think you are going to run into what we call the s.e.c. primaries -- i say he finishes third here. is there a reason to think he will perform better in other southern states than here? >> he ran up against tim scott, nikki haley and trey gowdy. i said early that might be enough to beat trump with those type of endorsements. trump has something special. is getting a third of almost every primary vote. but he's not growing much. as long as this crowd is as big as it is, once you get head up, with marco and cruise -- ted cruz about the same. i guess your point is if he can't do it here, where can he do it? you know, he's got ground game. he's been there. i certainly wouldn't advise him to get out, but maybe he will.
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mark: oh, he will get out. i'm not saying he will get out. >> i think you're going to jump into some pretty good states and it's going to be more media. the caucuses are different, it doesn't get the coverage. but it's different here. trump has sucked a lot of the oxygen out of this race that has surprised us all. mark: mr. chairman, thank you for joining us. coming up, bobby jindal and more. and you can listen to us on bloomberg radio. we will be right back after this word from our sponsors. ♪
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president, the former governor of louisiana, bobby jindal. he is part of the growing thatent toward marco rubio includes -- latebreaking tonight -- pat roberts, the senator from kansas. governor jindal, thank you for taking the time to chat. >> thank you for having me. mark governor, tell me what you : think the state of the race is. who is still in the running for this nomination? >> look, i'm biased. i think marco is going to win this. he's got the endorsements of nikki haley, very popular governor here, tim scott, the very popular senator and trey goudy, the very popular congressman. but beyond that, marco's got the ability to cut across lines, to unify our party, to attract voters across other demographic lines and across party lines. he's got the most room to grow his support. mark i know who you think is : going to win and who you want
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to win. who else can win besides your candidate at this point? >> well, look, let the voters decide. trump continues to do better than people think he will. i think he benefits from the fact that there are more candidates left in the race. i think as more candidates drop out, that is actually bad for him. i think jeb bush has put a lot of time and money into this state, his family is spending a lot of time in this state. quite frankly, coming out of saturday night, i think marco is going get a great boost and then it's off to nevada and the south. do you see any way that donald trump suffers a political price for exchanging words long distance with the pope? >> i've been predicting donald trump's demise for a long time now. you may remember i was one of go first to go back -- against him last fall.
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more generous than any other country in the world when it comes to donating resources, and i do think every country has the right to secure its border. the reality is, i think donald gets away with saying things other people could never say. the reality is with scalia's tragic passing last weekend, i'm hoping more and more voters will see how serious this election is. i think some trump supporters look at voting for trump as the a way to send a protest signal to get to the establishments attention. i understand that. they are mad at d.c. they are mad at our leaders. what i hope they will see this as a very serious election. we've got to win in november and with a conservative. i don't think trump is the best person to do that. obviously i think marco rubio is. i think he gets away with saying things other people couldn't or wouldn't say but as more candidates drop out, that's worse and
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worse for donald trump. mark: talk about your candidate's position on the for abortionptions restrictions in the case of incest or rape. even men find that to be a restriction they don't agree with. how would you justify that restriction for them? >> look, i'd say a couple things. obviously you are talking about horrific, horrific cases. if you're asking me to address these people who have endured these horrific crimes, my heart breaks for them and they have our sympathy, and prayers, and our support. i convey what a horrific situation it is. i absolutely respect senator rubio's strong position in support of innocent human life. you may remember in the debate before the last one up in new hampshire he was being pressed on this issue and he said very eloquently that he would much rather lose the election than be on the wrong side of this question.
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marco, like me, has a very strong religious faith and comes from a believe in the sanctity of life. you have to respect the fact that you have a man of deep convictions who is telling you what he believes, not trying to agree with opinion polls the i -- opinion polls. i admire him for stating the views so strongly. he is a man of deep conviction in the christian tradition. he believes in the sanctity of marriage and the sanctity of life. and i think people admire him for stating his view so strongly. mark: governor, you are in the state helping your candidate. do you plan to travel around more to support him? >> i do. i've got kids to take to the carpool and i am running some other things, but i fully endorse him and i said i would
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-- 2016 campaign trail debut here today as a backer of hillary clinton. i started by asking him about the state of the silver state race. john: we're here in nevada. how high are the stakes here for hillary clinton and bern -- bernie sanders? david i don't think they're make : or break. i think south carolina is probably going to be the more important contest but it's important. hillary had a big lead. i've seen it in other caucus states but without the same intensity. i think we will learn a lot from what happens here. john: from her perspective it seems that the way the narrative works, you win here, she's got a lot of strength. it's a long time, you've not had one clean victory. in any of the early states if she loses here and it's another long stretch, a whole other week to get south carolina. david: i remember back in 2008
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when we won iowa. not by a tie. we won by eight points. so we thought well, we'll get our mojo back in nevada. we still lost by six points in -- overall. that was tough for us. i don't think necessarily if she loses by a point or two here that is going to make the south carolina campaign spiral out of control. but at some point you do need to get back into the momentum. you want to go into march with as much strength as possible. stumbling,nto it that's going to have an effect. john: do you think for sanders, if she were to beat him here, how bad is that for sanders? david: sanders has to keep winning. he just has to keep winning. i don't think it's devastating but he's got to win south carolina. but listen, he's doing better
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than anyone could've imagined three months ago. they've put together a remarkable grassroots campaign. that's what she's up against. she has fluidity, strength, rationality, but a primary is all about excitement. bernie sanders is acting like santa claus, and people don't like to be told what they can't have. i think again, primaries are about excitement and sanders is kind of the excitement candidate. my sense is 30 days from now, she's going to look a lot stronger. they basically have to withstand this to get to the brighter days in march. and even if they win nevada it's going to be closer than people think it should be so basically you're going to be in the barrel until john: i remember covering march 2. this caucus in 2008 and thinking that of all the states this was the
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weirdest, most hinky election of all. why is nevada so weird? you have caucus sites in casinos. it's a multi-our affair. in some respects, it resembles a primary. and politics here, like in new jersey and louisiana, it's crazy. john: by which you mean dirty. david: well, there's a lot of deals being struck, yeah. for us, we got outhustled. hillary outhustled us here. we did very well in clark county but got mamboed down here. and that's why she won. john: but as i recall you guys won the delegates. which was more important than winning the popular vote. david: that was interesting. it was the very first time the
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media turn their attention to the delegates. so why am i so confident she's going to win? remember the last election on super tuesday in march, february of 2008. we win idaho by like 60 pints -- points. she wins new jersey, a massive state, by 10. she gets more delegates. it's going to be close. she's going to win a bunch of the southern states by big margins and then have a delegate lead. john: south carolina is coming up pretty quick. bloomberg poll of south carolina for the republicans and democrats. the numbers are out today. the interesting thing is clinton way ahead, not unexpectedly but sanders still beats her with white voters in south carolina.
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she wins handily among african-americans. that is a huge deal in a state where 50% of the voters are african-american, but what are the applications with -- implications with sanders being able to win the white vote? it's all about coalitions, and coalitions matter a lot. you guys built by this built -- formidableilt a coalition on the basis of white liberals, african-americans and millenials, right? what does it mean to hillary clinton if the while the vote she relied on in 2008 is not there for her in 2016? david well, we'll see. : there is a very large progressive white vote in south carolina. i think sanders will do very well there so i think as you look at the ohio, missouri, north carolina, these bigger states, texas, she'll do very well with the white vote. but that's right. we had millennials, the younger, college educated whites.
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if sanders were to develop real strength in the african-american community, i still think hillary is going to win the nomination but he's going to get much closer. john: if bernie sanders gets what percentage of the vote in south carolina would you say that's a problem. david: north of 40. john: so, south of 30, euro k. david: yes. what happens is, in the other states, the candidates are going to have less time on the ground, and her strength is going to be maintained at a higher level in those march 15 states. i think at the end of the day she is going to do very well with the white vote. she's just got to basically endure this crucible right now, which is not a lot of fun. john: one thing sanders has done is demonstrated a clearly huge generational split.
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he's blowing her out in every demographic including african-americans and hispanic, among young voters. as she looks forward toward the general where it looks like she has some pronounced weaknesses with a huge important part of obama coalition? david: i think it is a huge challenge. before thewas even bernie sanders rise. younger voters were something to be concerned about. now he is doing extraordinarily well with them. it's going to take enormous effort. if clinton is the nominee and i think she will be but the clinton campaign is going to go -- have to go there on the ground and meet with the supporters and hear them out. it's going to take a lot of work. it's not going to happen overnight. now, the stakes help. war or more diplomacy? 25 millionon --
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people with health care or not? planet warming or cooling? but you can't rely on that alone. if you were a betting person right now, trump or cruz look like the most two likely nominees. but you have to work for it. i think one of the central challenges of the campaign is going to be how do we put that together? if clinton turns that margin into an absolute dead heat with younger voters. john: if you look up and see ted cruz, marco rubio, nikki haley, does that picture worry you as a democrat if they were the nominee? david: it doesn't worry me because -- you and the press worry me. i think that's going to be a really interesting narrative, young, diverse, versus old, but the reality of their positions is what matters. look at marco rubio. on everything, the iran deal, gay marriage, health care, tax cuts for the wealthy, on all those issues he's hard tea party right.
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he might put a nicer image on it. that will be one of the challenges for the clinton campaign. marco rubio has to be defined. he cannot affine himself. do find himself, and i think the press will aid and abet here, he will scout a little bit to the center. and that's a big problem. john: our thanks to david left. -- to david. when we come back, ronald reagan's chief of staff, ken duberstein on the brewing supreme court battle. after this. ♪
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>> it's great to always be with you guys. mark: tell us the story so far of what you think has happened politically since justice scalia passed away. >> oh, i think you've seen people go to their battle stations. i think, you know, it's been going on for 30 years now ever since the bork nomination. supreme court nominations have become political circus, have become political campaigns. poll testing, focus groups, commercials, fund-raising. i've received a whole bunch of them already. everybody needs to take a deep breath, spop hyperventilating and let the process proceed. you know, the constitution allows the president to nominate,
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and president obama has clearly made that decision that he wants to go ahead and nominate, but he also needs to consult with the senate, and the senate has the constitutional right to do advice. and whether they hold a hearing or not i think depends in large measure on who obama decides to nominate. but everybody just needs to cool it for a while. we haven't even had the funeral of that great justice, justice scalia and people are already , going to their battle stations. i don't think that speaks well for the process or for the immediate future of this confirmation fight. mark: the president's got to balance what he thinks is right and what he believes in and for the party but for the good of the country, who should he nominate? >> somebody that could get 97 votes in the united states senate, maybe 90. david suter got 90 votes. tony kennedy got 97.
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justice scalia got 90-some. we need somebody who can be universally praised and that may be impossible in this new political know,nment, but, you president obama asked the question the other day would he nominate a moderate and the answer was no. so is this going to be a political statement? or is this somebody who he really wants to put on the bench who could bring the american people a consensus? i think that's necessary right now. god knows with all of our institutions under attack, including the supreme court, this is a time for let's try to rebuild some of these institutions and the respect and faith we used to have in tem. -- them. you don't do that by signaling a choice but rather , somebody who can rally people
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and be almost a unanimous confirmation by the senate. mark: and ken, what would you say to senator mcconnell about how he should proceed in the coming days and weeks? >> i think he also should take a deep breath and decide based on what president obama does how to proceed. you know, i always learn from the united states senators that they always leave a back door, a side door, or a trap door. i am sure mitch mcconnell has left himself some wiggle room. but based on what mitch mcconnell must be thinking, that obama is going to go down the path of a far left liberal, then he has no choice but either not to have the confirmation hearing and in consultation with senator grassley or to have a hearing but to make sure that no one
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i think it will play well for him. it already is. john: i'll give you my answer from out here in nevada. it's still early. there is a big town hall coming up between hillary and bernie. so we don't know who will win the day ultimately, but as of now, because of that latino hispanic assault i think hillary right now is winning the day. check out bloombergpolitics.com for more on that south carolina poll, the pope and much, much more. mark: coming up on "bloomberg west," emily chang talks to a vp of google about his company and the fbi. and for me, and for everyone here at the university, thanks for watching. sayonara. ♪
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dac -- jack dorsey tweeted his banks for 10 cook's leadership. and progress at a crucial summer -- crucial summit that might determine britain's future. what youet us know think of today's top stories by , andwing me on twitter don't forget to include the hashtag #trendingbusiness. indonesia is going underway, but most of asia is feeling the downward pressure. here is heidi with a look at that. reporter: that's right. this is not how we want to finish off a stellar week for asian markets. take a look at where we are sitting now. we really have quite a bit of downside coming through. in particular for japan. the nikkei 225 is down by
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