>> i am mark halperin john heilemann. and with all due respect, i am with hillary. tgif sports fans. although some candidates are dreading what comes this weekend, we are in south carolina, in columbia. this is our last day here on the eve of the presidential contest. the games are underway for their inlic and primary here and nevada. inhave been spending weeks

this day, let's go through each republican candidate. we will start with donald trump. on the last day before the primary, he spent his morning at myrtle beach, making a final pitch to voters. but the big news came from overseas, where a spokesman for the pope came over the radio, saying that anybody who is making walls, is not christian, that he was in no way throwing a brick at the donald. trump has been dominating south carolina for months. according to a new poll, his lead is shrinking to five points over ted cruz. what my question for you, for donald trump constitutes expectations, and beating expectations. expectations shift.

because of that nbc poll and other ones, meeting expectations as money by five or more and beating expectations is breaking 33%. john: while there are very precise. mark: these fingertips have seen a lot of primaries. john: i say, you have to win, to beat expectations, got to be over 10 points. and over 40 points. to be expectations. to meet expectations, the mid 30's, when he by five. mark: people no longer expected. i will tell you why. john: you don't expect them to win by five? is it going to be a razor-sharp race? mark: i will say this. whenever and wherever he wins by, they say he will win big on tuesday. john: we will ask a lot of these

questions, but today come on this, what happens with donald trump on march 1? mark: i think he will win in nevada big. and ted cruz got an endorsement from the congressman, mark sanford, who appeared with him at a rally in charleston this afternoon. ted cruz also went to a myrtle beach event, with phil robertson, that dynasty star. and he blasted the radio airwaves with two new ads, one of them featuring a south carolina figure. there was also news that a judge in chicago agreed to challenge his eligibility to be a candidate. same question, what would it take here for ted cruz to meet expectations and to beat expectations? mark: -- john: simple one. beating expectations, finishing first. anything below second is a

problem. mark: even that will beg the question, if he cannot be donald trump deadbeats donald trump in the southern state, what and where can he beat him. ? ? now looking at margins. if he gets second, he will still beat expectations. john: there is a way to get really close to trap and beat expectations. the big fear for him now, there has been polling that suggests, we have a lot of faith in an nbc have come outrs and we do not have faith in them. but some of them so that marco rubio has gotten over ted cruz. mark: or at least threatening him. john: this will not be a mortal blow by any means. but it would be a big deflation for ted cruz. if he was third below marco rubio. speaking of marco rubio, moving

on. he is riding high since he was endorsed by nikki haley on wednesday. they were on the campaign trail today, and holding five rallies. this after scheduling challenges made him stand up to voters at the conservative review conference last night. this was an unforced error that drew fire. he reschedule the event for tonight. there are a lot of highs right now on this young guy, so what constitutes meeting and beating expectations? mark: meeting is beating jeb bush. beating expectations is beating ted cruz, and obviously the big casino, finishing first. people think that he was already writing high before death riding high before the endorsement. already riding high before the endorsement. anthony have seen this image of

nikki haley and marco rubio. my guess is, if he is doing well, he has momentum dominating the news. john: i agree with all that analysis. i will say that meeting expectations will be a problem for him, because the ted cruz campaign will rightly say that marco rubio computer like crazy here. here. the establishment this is the republican establishment behind them and in an establishment state. and talking about how much he has here. he has outspent everybody by magnitude. if he comes in third in the state come in which states will he win? i do not know the answer. mark: he has a better chance of winning a state if jeb bush gets out. and now jeb bush. another family affair for the florida governor who held campaign events with his mother, barbara. we were at the event in

greenville when she arrived. >> mrs. bush, are you happy to be here? >> thrilled. >> what are you going to say? >> everything. i was here for my father's wedding. >> do you think we will see is the prize tomorrow -- surprise tomorrow? >> i hope so. >> what do you think will happen? >> i think he is by far, the best. john: and also to have his of his brothers. both were optimistic about his chances. and i caught up with the candidate himself, we had a chance to chat about family. john: a lot of love in your family. >> is that surprising? mark: not always the case with kim -- with siblings. >> we love each other a lot. mark: how big is tomorrow? >> south carolina is important.

certainly in my family, it has been a big part of it. no caution. , great as always with question and answer, clear nervousness in his world. but what is meeting and beating expectations tomorrow? john: nobody is better than barbara bush. i like those bushes. jeb bush, his expectations are so low now that to finish in fourth or fifth, fourth would be meeting expectations. third and above, certainly getting above marco rubio would be exceeding expeditions. john: everybody assumes if he does not meet expectations, or beat them, that he will get out. mark: i thought that until this mindset i am the fisher after watching the event today. i still think that he is going to play after march 1.

he says, this is a case of rubio and trump and cruise conference come i think that he does not see where marco rubio wins a state. why not stay in? john: we both agree about this. he will have pressure to get out. and if he is fourth or fifth, what does he do with the establishment that says, you must get out for the good of the party? mark: onward. john: john kasich has been attempting to hug his way to the white house. we are talking about the powerful moment at a town hall yesterday in south carolina, when he embraced a supporter who spoke emotionally about his personal struggles. >> i was in a dark place for a long time, i was depressed, but i found hope. i found the lord and my friends, now i have found it in my

presidential candidate that i support. i really appreciate what those hugs you have been talking about. [applause] john: despite buzz about john kasich in the final days, his team has been talking down prospects, despite his finish in new hampshire. mark, back to the question. meeting and beating expectations. mark: fifth or sixth. beating would be a strong fifth, maybe fourth. john: portside jeb bush. -- or tie jeb bush. mark: my hat is off to his campaign. he has shown up quite a bit. they are testing waters to see if there would be a fire here. realize that was not happening, they spun everybody successfully and nothing to see here, he has

nothing on the line. he is about michigan and ohio. he has been playing it well. john: hats off to him. he has done a good job. the south carolina campaign is where the paper that moment. like chris christie when he was talking about drug addiction in new hampshire. it got him something going. it encapsulates john kasich in a profound way. it will not help them here, but he is still in the race and competing for independent voters. for blue-collar, democrat types -- mark: and moderates. john: that is the kind of thing that suburban women like. mark: c-span was the only camera there. thank goodness for c-span and john kasich, for his point of view, that would've never happened. innext, decision time nevada. the great expositions game on -- expectations game on the democratic side. right after this.

♪

♪ mark: now for something different. news on the democratic side. a giant in south carolina politics, for years, endorsed hillary clinton today. we will bring you the interview with the commerce men later. 2500 miles away in the silver state, the race is looking so close, it could be a coin toss. that is good news for hillary clinton. the coin toss in iowa. and the day before the caucuses, the campaign sent out aggressive press releases. the clinton campaign getting sanders on immigration and what

he has said in the past on president obama. and sanders talking about the wall street firms. last night, clinton was asked about a topic she has been struggling to overcome, questions about her veracity. >> you know in 1976, jimmy carter famously said come i will not lie to you -- said, i will not lie to you. >> i have to tell you, i have tried in every way i know how, in my years, to level with the american people. >> have you always told the truth? >> i have always tried to. always. >> some people are going to call that wiggle room that you gave yourself. >> i have always tried to. >> jimmy carter said, i will never lie to you. >> you are asking me to say, have i ever? i don't believe i ever have and i don't believe i ever will. i will do the best i can to level with the american people. mark: so that answer set off

alarm bells across the political spectrum, from a variety of perspectives. compare the answer with what bernie sanders said when we asked him a comparable question earlier this week. >> i am wondering whether you think it is appropriate for a president to publicly lie to the american people? >> i should hope not. what there has got to be in terms of the relationship of government with people, which we are losing everyday, the level of trust. so i would hope that the president of the united states tells the truth to the mecca people. answershn, while those work their way around the establishment. john: and everywhere. mark: what is meeting expectations and beating expeditions for hillary clinton? -- eating expectations for hillary clinton -- beating

expectations for hillary clinton? john: to win in nevada. she has spent way more money. mark: she has had a firewall. john: and the hispanic population, which she claims as part of the firewall, she needs to win there. but everybody knows that sanders has been on the rise. she have to win by more than she one last time. she beat sanders by more than 6. mark: i do not think it is fair. this should be a state that is supposed to be hers. if she does not win, this is really bad for her. it is the same as iowa and new hampshire. sanders had the momentum in new hampshire. i think he lost tomorrow would be bad. i do not know it would do in south carolina. it would allow him to raise money. and it would set up for march 1, more than south carolina. john: what david said to me when

i talk to him. he said, look, this is where we were in 2008. we had lost new hampshire, nevada, south carolina became a must win for barack obama and it will be like that for hillary clinton. she will come in with strength. same garden, reverse question, for bernie sanders. they should just be a mirror image thing. what constitutes meeting and exceeding? mark: maybe a tie. one of them wins the delegates, one of them the popular vote. that could be good enough. like iowa, a tie. and exceeding expectations, winning. i would say that i believe he is more likely to win the nod right now. therefore, because that has been a creeping perception all week, a win would be beating expectations, but not by summit.

he is not going to get as big a buffer as it would be out of the blue. john: i went yesterday to a democratic dinner last night, bernie sanders and bill clinton, chanting. for bill clinton, an interception. but nothing like the chanting. and the black caucus has endorsed bernie sanders. and he has done a lot of work in the rural areas, in reno. i feel like he now actually should be the favorite. if you are a betting man, you and give bernie sanders the favorite. mark: the economy helps them. john: i totally agree. mark: when we come back, how is marco rubio doing in south carolina. one of his vigorous -- one of his biggest backers here joined us after these words from sponsors. ♪

♪ john: early this morning, marco rubio held a campaign rally. three of his biggest supporters, nikki haley and trey gowdy included. grapevinehrough the that they would arm wrestle to see who would have the armor -- the honor to come on want -- to come on our show. trey gowdy one. con dismissed -- congressman? >> hello there. john: we have a new foxhole that says marco poll that rubio is only three points behind donald trump. win theo rubio when -- primary tomorrow? can heheat or will he --

or will he? john: you can answer both. >> of course he can. go back to where he was coming from when he landed here 10 days ago. he was coming off of new hampshire, where his obituary was being written. he is the most popular official in the state, the closest thing to all this presley and now he -- elvis presley, and now he has nikki haley. if this was a week from saturday, he would have a really big chance to win. a strong third or second would be all in you. jeb bush and john kasich are still in the race. mark: what do some of your constituents like about donald trump? >> date is the personification -- he is that personification of the anger against politics.

-- he helps people make a point. i get the point. i am more interested in making a difference, but he is the personification of making a point toward people in my line of work. made aet me ask you, you reference to john kasich and jeb bush. if marco rubio finishes ahead of those two guys, it is your posture that they should both get out of the race? >> well, among the many things i try not to do is give political advice to those who are courageous enough to run for president. they can look at the same numbers i can look at and they have smarter minds than me to access. i do not consider the establishment lane, because marco rubio to me is not the establishment.

but this is crowded and they all cannot emerge in that lane. marco rubio is doing well. and i support him. guysse -- i think those are smart enough to look at those numbers and see if there is a path for them. if marco rubio finishes in a strong third or second -- [indiscernible] congressman, thank you. >> yes, sir. mark: ok, thank you. john: audio difficulty there. , again, wer sense of talked about the pressure that will come onto bush. think about it, is marco rubio, if he finishes third, is he in a position to say that i am the guy. rally around me if you want to stop donald trump and ted cruz? mark: we can measure the desires of the establishment, people on capitol hill, the donors, and

there is a willingness to say yes, marco rubio is the guy. that was said in new hampshire. there is appetite for that. and for bush and john kasich come outside of their supporters , i think that they could consolidate. he has already gotten some in south carolina. and a senator endorsed him. there will be a broad coalition saying, we just need to go with marco rubio now. i think the john kasich can make a barter that a better argument about different states he can win. but marco rubio will get support. john: it is a curious thing and a strange thing about the dynamics of this, that a guy that could finish third in iowa, fourth in new hampshire, that these people could rally around me. i get what is about, but on the face it is ridiculous. mark: and to say that, maybe

bush would try to fight. clarity,an absence of objectively and in the between all of these three, on who could stop donald trump. there should be a clear sign on who could stop donald trump. john: when we come back, my conversation with the legendary, jim hybrid. we will talk about hillary clinton's chances. and we will talk about the looming battle over the supreme court seat. that and more when we come back. ♪

♪ >> today, my head and heart are in the same place.

speculated that my head was with one candidate and my heart with the other, that was not the case at all. my heart has always been with hillary clinton. but my head had me in a neutral corner. i have decided to terminate my neutralityging -- my and get engaged. i believe the future of the democratic party and the united states will be best served with the experiences and know-how of hillary clinton as our 45th president. ♪ john: that was legendary south carolina congressman, jim clybourn endorsing hillary clinton today. is before the primary on february 27. i got a chance to speak with them and ask him -- with him and asked him about plans if she

wins. john: jim clyburn, the only politician on the democratic side that has a political machine. people have a network of who i spend a lot of time with. i would not call the main machine. john: ok, a powerful organization. you can mobilize resources on behalf of hillary clinton. >> i will do everything i can. john: this is not a symbolic thing. he will be out and move the votes and working i'm leaving here today and going to my home down. i'm going to charleston on sunday. did you call her and tell her you were going to give her your

endorsement? >> no. let him know. >> you talked about there was a wered of time where you split between your head and your heart. where was your head? >> neutral, to stay out of it. neither had nor heart was attracted to the notion of bernie sanders? >> no. >> why is that? is he somehow inadequate? >> there's nothing inadequate about journey. -- bernie. it's about who has the background and experience. >> there have been a lot of

african-american leaders who have sent burning sanders isn't really with african-americans. you don't feel that way. you feel journey is fine with respect to issues about african-americans? >> right. of policy, what are the areas where you think hillary is superior in terms of what she's advocating in terms of policy for your constituents and people who care about african-american issues? >> if you look at targeted funding, hillary has internalized that. she was in bamberg a week or so ago. threatened with free public education because it is an o.p.s. google school. -- episcopal school.

she has expressed that on national television. when it comes to foreign affairs -- four years as secretary of , i don't know of anybody that is going to the presidency with that kind of background. --n she came out of college this is what has been an issue with me. carolina tosouth work with juveniles who are being jailed with adults. she went to alabama. i know that marian wright elder who was down in mississippi, and they hooked up for the children's defense fund.

she was not first lady at the time. she was doing what her heart had her doing. i just always said the best way to tell what a person will do is look at what they have done. >> do you notice what i noticed that in south carolina there is a generational split? there are a lot of folks attracted to bernie sanders' presidency. i see a lot of young african-americans attracted to bernie, and on the middle-aged and older side there's a lot of loyalty to hillary clinton. >> that's nothing new. that's always been there. my mother a student and father were split over whether i was doing the right thing.

my dad did not think too well of going to jail. >> there is something -- you would not necessarily have predicted that a 74-year-old guy fromy -- jewish vermont would generate enthusiasm among african-americans. >> you are correct about that. >> how do you see the primary playing out? how much does nevada matter to what happens this week in terms of the democrats, and in south carolina? >> i'm sure it does, but not much. >> do you expect this to be a close race? >> it's going to tighten, but she will win comfortably, i think so. thanks to congressman jim clyburn. when we come back, inside the supremely contentious supreme

court battle that is looming. ♪

funeral services for the late justice are scheduled for tomorrow in washington. meanwhile, the debate over who should replace justice scalia continues to rage.

house says it is not finished putting together a short list of potential nominees. the republican senator of iowa is going to hold meetings with tolow republicans next week decide whether they will hold a hearing after president obama makes his pick. man who knows a thing or two about confirmation battles. is also helping hillary clinton with her debate prep. ron, there have been a lot of names out there of people who might be chosen. you talk to the past about how president obama makes his selection. do you think the president already has names in mind, or he is reaching out and thinking broader given the political circumstances? >> he will look at a broad list.

he did the first two times he did this. he narrowed it down very systematically, read a lot of their writings. this is something he takes seriously. he's a constitutional scholar and taught constitutional law. he will dig into the substance of this and ultimately pick the person who will be the best new justice on the supreme court. if you get nominated for the supreme court in your nominations failed, you are probably not getting nominated again. ofen the way the politics this layout, why would anybody except the nomination of the supreme court under the circumstances? >> there are two reasons. if the president picks an excellent candidate and puts together a good case for that person, i think that person will get a hearing. when they get a hearing, they

make their case to the american people. these hearings will have unprecedented viewership. the american public will engage with the nominee. the president's nominee can and should be confirmed. the first reason to get nominated is because if you do the job, you will get confirmed. the phone doesn't ring twice on this. if the phone rings and the president is calling, probably people will take that nomination. >> it seems like that's a sanguine view of what republicans are saying at this point. i get the argument. i assume you have a relatively cold eye view about how intransigent republicans are on this issue. it seems nuts to take such a nomination given how hard line they are being. >> and think what people are missing in this is, there are two debates here. one is the debate were having right now at an abstract level before an actual nominee exists. when an actual nominee exists

and he or she has a life story, credentials, allies, friends, people who know cousins, relatives, whatever, a whole different dynamic takes hold. it will be very hard to deny that person a hearing. 1875 single nominee since has gotten a hearing. once you get a hearing, that person is at-bat. justice ginsburg talking about her grandchildren, justice kagan talking about going out for chinese food on christmas day. tose nominees have a chance present themselves. they create their own dynamic, and that is what will happen here. >> give us an example of someone who would fulfill president obama's conception of what a correct kind of nominee would be, and who would put political pressure on the republicans to give them a hearing and confirm them. names not going to name

because i don't want to get someone in a bad place or get in front of the president or whatever. i do think you look at both of the president's prior nominations. justices faced a democratic senate and they got a substantial number of republican votes. >> sorry, we got to go in a second. you think either of those people nominated today would be confirmed, yes or no? >> yes i do. >> ok. thanks for joining us. up next, ted cruz phone banking, doorknocking at macon super pac. we will talk south carolina grand game and more after these words from our sponsors. ♪

>> we are calling republicans in the primary. >> please vote for senator cruz tomorrow. for --pe we can vote count on you to vote for ted cruz. >> tried and true methods, follow the script. those are phone bankers of the pac.ruz super they called voters this morning. i spoke with the chief strategist of the super pac. crowds have been consistently large. he has key endorsements in his state. we noticed yesterday when we started running additional talk

--io, we have an interview with senator demint. congressman duncan on the air, dr. dobson has been incredibly important in moving some of these undecided voters. 36% of undecided voters in our poll are evangelical. we have seen movement towards senator cruz among very conservative tea partiers. >> enough movement that he could finish first? not first, but definitely second, which some are predicting he would come in second or third in iowa and he would come and fit or six in new hampshire. he will come third or fourth in north carolina. >> he's put a lot of effort in your state. your super pac's have done a lot of work on the ground. if you can't beat trump in this southern state, what makes you

think he can beat trump in the upcoming southern states? >> south carolina goes early. they had been swept up by the donald trump magic. >> the donald trump magic, if he wins saturday here, he wins on tuesday in nevada, won't there be more magic? >> no, because everybody wanted to make that point about iowa. we need to regurgitate that soundbite of well, what if he wins three straight contests. most delegates will not be awarded yet. i think the pressure will be on jeb bush and john kasich. the real question for south carolina is, rubio, how come you are not winning the state? americanthe indian female governor, the african-american first-term senator, a conservative hero across this nation, and yet he's mired in the teens. >> if ted cruz can't beat donald

trump in this state, what argument is there that he can beat him in the upcoming southern states on march 1? >> south carolina is one of the early states, and mr. trump and senator cruz have made many visitors here. there's no question whoever wins -- next couple of contests when you talk about voting monday on march 1, many of which are in the south, including senator cruz's home state of texas. senator cruz has a great team in georgia and tennessee. nobody is going to hang up their spurs and say, oh darn, we did not come first. margins matter. the question is if mr. trump comes in first and esther cruise comes in second, what was the margin? five points, six points? we don't see that in our data.

>> you look at trump and cruz in your data as finishing first and second. no one else can be first or second? >> rubio was really nipping at their heels. we saw that in iowa also. concerning. there is something about senator rubio where he does not get too close the deal quite the way -- >> you don't think he can finish any better than third? >> that's right. >> is he a lock for third? >> not necessarily. we've seen some fluctuations underneath. are three other candidates. if it was just ben carson, just gone -- john kasich -- nobody is that -- senatorlem i believe rubio is in now, he's trying to run in the conservative lane but

he has his left hand blinker on. voterss to assure the that he can play in both places. >> is your ideal outcome to have a one-on-one race with donald trump by the middle of march? >> that would be ideal. >> what the you think the chances of that happening are? let's say on march 1 no one wins states except for trump and cruz. senatorne says to rubio, you have your whole career ahead of you. because you been a politician your entire life you can continue to run for president and vice president again. cruz, therump and establishment is flat on its back. the one-two punch of trump and cruz this cycle has already left the establishment on its back. cruz, you absolutely will see -- the debate is not

mushy moderates. it's not the establishment versus the outside, it's actually two anti-washington, a nti-establishment outsiders. -- howmuch of your life do you feel as a republican about the prospect of jeb bush finishing disappointing. >> i am sad for jeb bush. we saw it coming. third version versus first woman, it's not a fair fight. about thenot just dynasty, it is about first woman versus third bush. when you look at the elections you seeand 2014, exactly what happened there is happening now at the presidential level. it's always been difficult for conservatives to convert their ability to win primaries and win in the general election in nonpresidential contests.

they have never been able to really convert that, not in many years since reagan have they been able to convert that. for the nextooking reagan, why are you still picking bushes? a warning to a lot of the senators, actually, who have been there a long time. voters do not confuse seniority with staleness. >> thanks to kellyanne conway, who works for the cruz usuper pac's. ♪

>> who won the week. i'm going to say who did not

win the wake. francis lost the week. he's out. tko. >> pope did not have a great week, at least in the context of the presidential campaign. marco rubio one the week. he came in here. some people wrote him off. now he's poised to change the whole race. on bloomberg politics, a very good story about how much bernie sanders has raised from unemployed and retired americans. he's raised a lot. all the results from the two events tomorrow all weekend long on bloomberg politics. >> coming up on "bloomberg west, ." sayonara.ay, ♪

>> let's start with your bloomberg first word news. a deal to keep the u.k. in the european union has been reached. lithuania's president made the announcement in a tweet she put

out earlier. it gives britain a seven-year emergency brake period to impose well for curbs on eu citizens working in britain. peace talks will not resume as planned. turkey intensified cross-border shelling on regions held by the u.s. backed kurdish militia. democrat and republican presidential candidates are chasing delegates in separate states tomorrow. polls show hillary clinton and a virtual tie with bernie sanders. race alsoarolina that tightening. a poll released today puts within fivecruz points of donald trump. president obama and wife michelle visited the supreme court to pay final respects today to justice scalia. the funeral is saturday. harper lee, author of "to kill a mockingbird," has died.