mark: i am mark halperin john: i am john heilemann. mark: and with all due respect, i am with hillary. ♪ john: tgif sports fans. although some candidates are dreading what comes this weekend, we are in south carolina, in columbia. this is our last day here on the eve of two presidential contests. the games are underway for the republican primary here in nevada.

we have been waiting weeks for this day. let's go through each republican candidate. we will start with donald trump. on the last day before the primary, he spent his morning at myrtle beach, making a final pitch to voters. but the big news came from overseas, where a spokesman for the pope came over the radio, saying that anybody who is making walls is not christian. the pontiff was in no way throwing a brick at the donald. trump has been dominating south carolina for months. according to a new poll, his lead is shrinking to five points over ted cruz. mark, my question for you, what constitutes donald trump meeting expectations, and how is he beating expectations? mark: expectations shift.

because of that nbc poll and other ones, meeting expectations would be as many by five or that it would be winning as many by five or more and beating , expectations is breaking 33%. john: while they're very precise. mark: these fingertips have seen a lot of primaries. john: i say, you have to win. to beat expectations, it's got to be by over 10 points. and over 40 to beat expectations. expectations, the mid-30's, when by five -- win by five. john: -- mark: whatever he went by, people think he will win big in

the caucasus. john: we will ask a lot of these questions, but today come on this, what happens with donald trump on march 1? mark: i think he will win in nevada big. cruz, who picked up a big endorsement from congressman mark sanford, who appeared with him at a rally in charleston this afternoon. ted cruz also went to a myrtle beach event with phil robertson, the duck dynasty star. and he blasted the radio airwaves with two new ads, one of them featuring a south carolina figure. there was also news that a judge in chicago agreed to challenge his eligibility to be a candidate. same question, what would it take here for ted cruz to meet expectations and to beat expectations? john: that's a simple one. meeting expectations would be finishing second. beating expectations, finishing

first. anything below second is a problem. mark: even that will beg the question, if he cannot beat donald trump in the southern state, what and where can he beat him? i will say, again, getting into the question of margins. if he gets second, he will still beat expectations. john: there is a way to get really close to trump and beat expectations. the big fear for him now -- there has been polling that suggests -- we have a lot of faith in an nbc poll, but others have come out and we do not have faith in them. they are out there, and are some campaigns that think it is true. it says that marco rubio has gotten over ted cruz. mark: or at least threatening him. john: this will not be a mortal blow by any means, but it would be a big deflation for ted cruz. people talk you might finish this primary. it would be a big blow, if he

was third, below marco rubio. speaking of marco rubio, moving on. he is riding high since he was endorsed by nikki haley on wednesday. they were on the campaign trail today, and holding five rallies. this after scheduling challenges made him stand up to voters at the conservative review conference last night. there was an unforced error that drew fire. he rescheduled the event for tonight. there are a lot of eyes right now on young, marco rubio. so what constitutes meeting and beating expectations? mark: meeting is beating jeb bush. beating expectations is beating ted cruz, and, obviously the big casino, finishing first. i think -- marco rubio people , think that he was already riding high before the endorsement.

reducing the image of trey gowdy, nikki haley, tim scott and marco rubio. my guess is if he is doing well, , he has momentum, dominating the news. john: i agree with all that analysis. i will say that meeting expectations will be a problem for him, because the ted cruz campaign will rightly say that the marco rubio computer is like crazy here. he had the establishment here. this is the republican establishment behind him, in an establishment state. and talking about how much he has spent here. he has outspent everybody by magnitudes. if he comes in third in the state, in which states will he win? that question will be back, asked. mark: he has a better chance of winning a state if jeb bush gets out. and now jeb bush. another family affair for the florida governor, who held campaign events with his mother, barbara. our man was at the event in

greenville, when barbara brush arrived. >> mrs. bush, are you happy to be here? mrs. bush: thrilled. >> what are you going to say? mrs. bush: everything. i was here for my father's wedding. >> do you think we will see a surprise tomorrow? mrs. bush: i hope so. >> what do you think will happen? mrs. bush: i think he is by far, the best. john: and also to have two of -- also at that event were two of his brothers. both were optimistic about his chances. afterward, i cut up with the candidate himself. we had a chance to chat about family. a lot of love in your family. jeb bush: is that surprising? mark: it's not always the case with siblings. jeb bush: we love each other a lot. mark: how big is tomorrow? jeb bush: south carolina is important. it has always been important in

running for president. certainly in my family, it has , been a big part of it. no question about it. mark: focus, great as always with question and answer, clear nervousness in his world. four jeb bush tomorrow what is , meeting and beating expectations tomorrow? john: nobody wears pearls better than barbara bush. look jeb bush, his expectations , are so low now that to finish in fourth or fifth -- fourth would be meeting expectations. third and above -- certainly getting above marco rubio would be exceeding expeditions. it would probably allow him to go on. john: everybody assumes that if he does not meet expectations, or beat them, that he will get out. mark: i thought that until this morning.

i still think that he is going to play after march 1. he says, this is a case of rubio and trump and cruz conference, i -- contest, i think that he does not see where marco rubio wins a state. why not stay in? john: we both agree about this. he will have pressure to get out. and if he is fourth or fifth, there is a lot of pressure. what does he do with the establishment that says, you must get out for the good of the party? mark: onward. john: while his rivals are beating themselves around the head. john kasich has been attempting to hug his way to the white house. we are talking about the powerful moment at a town hall yesterday in south carolina, when he embraced a supporter who spoke emotionally about his personal struggles. >> i was in a dark place for a long time. i was depressed, but i found hope. i found it in the lord and in my friends. now, i have found it in my presidential candidate that i support.

i would really appreciate one of those hugs you have been talking about. [applause] john: despite buzz about john kasich in the final days, his team has been talking down prospects, despite his finish in new hampshire. mark, back to the question. meeting and beating expectations? mark: fifth or sixth. that would be meeting. beating would be a strong fifth, maybe fourth. john: or tie jeb bush. mark: my hat is off to his campaign. he has shown up quite a bit. the super pac did some activity. they tested the waters to see if they could light a fire here. when they realize that was not happening, they spun everybody excessively, and said that there

is nothing to fear. he has nothing on the line. he is about michigan and ohio. he has been playing it well. john: hats off to him. he has done a good job. the south carolina campaign is worth it for that moment. that hug moment, like the chris christie moment when he was , talking about drug addiction in new hampshire. it got him something going. it encapsulates john kasich in a profound way. it will not help them here, but if he is still in this race and competing for independent voters. for blue-collar, democrat types -- mark: and moderates. john: that is the kind of thing that suburban women like. mark: c-span was the only camera there. everybody is using the c-span footage. thank goodness for c-span and john kasich. for his point of view, that would've never happened. up next, decision time in nevada. bernie and hillary, and the great expectations game on the democratic side. right after this. ♪

♪ mark: now for something different. news on the democratic side. jim clybourn a giant in south , carolina politics, for years, endorsed hillary clinton today. we will bring you the interview with the commerce men later. 2500 miles away in the silver state, the race is looking so close. it could be a coin toss. that is good news for hillary clinton, given her recent success with coin tosses in iowa. and the day before the caucuses, the campaign sent out aggressive press releases. the clinton campaign getting sanders on immigration, and what he has said in the past on president obama.

and sanders hitting hillary clinton about her patent conference talks at wall street firms. last night, clinton was asked about a topic she has been struggling to overcome, questions about her veracity. >> you know in 1976, jimmy carter famously said, i will not lie to you. hillary clinton: i have to tell you, i have tried in every way i know how, in my years, to level with the american people. >> you talk about leveling with the american people. have you always told the truth? hillary clinton: i have always tried to. always. >> some people are going to call that wiggle room that you gave yourself. hillary clinton: i have always tried to. >> jimmy carter said, i will never lie to you. hillary clinton: you are asking me to say, have i ever? i don't believe i ever have, and i don't believe i ever will. i will do the best i can to level with the american people. mark: so that answer set off alarm bells across the political

spectrum, from a variety of perspectives. now compare that answer with , what bernie sanders said, when we asked him a comparable question earlier this week. >> i am wondering whether you think it is appropriate for a president to publicly lie to the american people? bernie sanders: i should hope not. i mean, i think what there has got to be -- in terms of the relationship of government with people, which we are losing everyday -- the level of trust. so, i would hope that the president of the united states tells the truth to the american people. mark: john, while those answers ricocheted around the establishment -- john: and -- john: and everywhere. mark: what is meeting expectations and beating expectations for hillary clinton? john: four hillary clinton,

meeting expectations is to win in nevada. she has spent way more money there. mark: her campaign claimed for a long time that it would be behind a firewall. john: and the hispanic population, which she claims as part of the firewall, she needs to win there. but everybody knows that sanders has been on the rise. she has to win by more than what she won by last time. if she beats sanders by more than six, she will have met expectations. mark: i do not think it is fair. this should be a state that is supposed to be hers. if she does not win, this is really bad for her. it is the same as iowa and new hampshire. sanders had the momentum in new hampshire. i think, if he lost tomorrow, it would be bad. i do not know what it would do in south carolina. i do know though it would allow , him to raise money. and it would set up for march 1, more than south carolina.

john: what david said to me, when i talk to him. he said, look, this is where we -- like where we were in we had 2008. lost new hampshire, nevada -- south carolina became a must win for barack obama, and it will be like that for hillary clinton. she will come in with strength. same question, well -- reverse question, for bernie sanders. it should just be a mirror image thing. what constitutes meeting and exceeding? mark: maybe a tie. one of them wins the delegates, one of them the popular vote. if used within a few points of the popular vote, that would be good enough. like in iowa. beating expectations, that would be winning. i would say that, i believe he is more likely to win the nod -- when right now. that is my sense. mark: that john: that is my sense to.

mark: therefore, because that has been a creeping perception all week, a win would be beating expectations, but not by summit. he is not going to get as big a buffer as it would be out of the blue. john: i went yesterday to a democratic dinner last night. bernie sanders and bill clinton, chanting in the room for bernie sanders. for bill clinton, it was a nice reception. but nothing like the chanting. and the black caucus has endorsed bernie sanders. and he has done a lot of work in the rural areas, in reno. i feel like he now actually should be the favorite. if you are a betting man, you can give bernie sanders the favorite. mark: i predict the entrance poll shows that the economy helps him. john: i totally agree. mark: when we come back, how is marco rubio doing in south carolina? one of his biggest backers here will join us after these words from our sponsors. ♪

♪ john: early this morning, marco rubio held a campaign rally. it was here in columbia for three of his biggest supporters, nikki haley and trey gowdy included. we heard through the grapevine that they would arm wrestle to see who would have the honor to come on our show. trey gowdy won. he joins us now from greenville. congressman? trey gowdy: hello there. john: good to see you. we have a new fox poll that says, marco rubio is only three points behind donald trump. not sure how credible that paul is. for your sense right now, let's cut to the chase can marco rubio , win the primary tomorrow? trey gowdy: can he or will he? john: you can answer both.

trey gowdy: of course he can. i think it will be a very strong third chance. go back to where he was coming from, when he landed here 10 days ago. he was coming off of new hampshire, where his obituary was being written. he has one of the most ocular officials in the state, the closest thing to elvis presley, and now he has nikki haley. if this was a week from saturday, he would have a really big chance to win. a strong third or second would be all we need. particularly, given the fact, that jeb bush and john kasich are still in the race. mark: what do some of your constituents like about donald trump? trey gowdy: he is that personification of the anger and frustration that is directed against people in my line of work.

folks, also in your line of work. he helps people make a point. i get the point. he is the personification of making a point toward people in my line of work. john: let me ask you, you made a reference to john kasich and jeb bush. if tomorrow marco rubio finishes , ahead of those two guys, it is thatuld it be your posture they should both get out of the race? so that the establishment can rally behind marco rubio? trey gowdy: well, among the many things i try not to do is give political advice to those who are courageous enough to run for president. they can look at the same numbers i can look at, and they have smarter minds than me to access. i do not consider the establishment lane, because marco rubio to me is not the establishment. but this is crowded, and they -- that lane is a crowded one,

and they all cannot emerge in that lane. marco rubio is doing well. and i support him. i think those guys are smart enough to look at those numbers, and see if there is a path for them. mark: congressman, thank you. what is your sense of the pressure that will come on bush? if rubio finishes third here, is he in a position to stand up and , "i am the guy. rally around me, if you want to stop donald trump and ted cruz?" mark: we can measure the desires of the establishment, people on capitol hill, the donors, and there is a willingness to say, yes, marco rubio is the guy. that was said in new hampshire. there is appetite for that. for bush and john kasich, outside of their supporters, i think that marco rubio would have a chance to quickly consolidate.

he has already gotten some in south carolina. and a senator endorsed him. -- from kansas endorsed him. there will be a broad coalition saying, we just need to go with marco rubio now. i think that john kasich can make a better argument about different states he can win. that comes if the wins today. but marco rubio will get support. john: it is a curious thing, and a strange thing, about the dynamics of this -- that a guy that could finish third in iowa, fourth in new hampshire -- that these people could rally around me. i get what it is about, but, on its face, it is ridiculous. mark: and to say that, maybe bush would try to fight. there is an absence of clarity, objectively and in the establishment, between all of these three, on who could stop donald trump. if marco rubio passes cruise e, therecrus her

should be a clear sign on who could stop donald trump. john: when we come back, my conversation with the legendary, jim hybrid. -- clyburn. we will talk about hillary clinton's chances. and we will talk about the looming battle over the supreme court seat. that and more when we come back. ♪

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jim clyburn: today, however, my head and heart are in the same place. a few people speculated that my head was with one candidate and my heart with the other, that was not the case at all. my heart has always been with hillary clinton. but my head had me in a neutral corner. i have decided to terminate my neutrality and get engaged. i believe the future of the democratic party and the united states of america will be best served with the experiences and know-how of hillary clinton as our 45th president. ♪ john: that was legendary south carolina congressman, jim clyburn endorsing hillary clinton today. that was a days before his state votes on the primary here on february 27. i got a chance to speak with m,