john: with all due respect to mitt romney, i know harry reid. he is a friend of mine. you, sir, are no harry reid. mark: hello again from historic, beautiful charleston, south carolina. with the clock ticking down to the democratic primary on saturday, has crept into the 48 hour red zone. we will talk about that later. we have a new poll with our

partners at purple strategies. we look at the seven southern states that vote on the republican side in the presidential race on march 1. this is all mine that surveyed populations of likely primary voters from those states. here's what we found. donald trump with 37%, a whopping 17 points ahead of ted cruz and marco rubio who are tied at 20%. ben carson are in the single digits. what stands out to you most about the poll? mark: donald trump's king at the south. he's strong not just in the horse race, but the voters don't consider him the most conservative and yet they still give him the lead. attempts to paint him as less conservative will not have an effect on his standing. he beat the individual candidates head-to-head. that undermines the argument,

donald trump over ted cruz. over rubio, 48-44. john: if you look at this poll, and it's hard to poll a whole bunch of states together. it's a very complicated business with all the southern states. it's true what you said, it's not just that he is ahead by so much, it's the ways in which he is ahead. donald trump holds a commanding lead over these other guys. it's possible that ted cruz could pick up a state, marco rubio could get a bunch of delegates and some of the states. it's hard to escape the conclusion that donald trump will be the big winner in the south on march 1. john: it's a very conservative part of the country.

the mountain west as well. apparently they like new york values here in the south or they are willing to overlook new york values because trump is so strong here. it fleshes out the strength of his campaign in the south. it means he's in line to have the best day of anyone on tuesday, maybe by a lot. >> obviously the implications of that are quite striking. you know how strong he is in some places outside of the south. it gives more balanced of the argument that's been emerging over the past few days. that on march 1 he could come close to putting away the nomination. mark i'm here in houston for : the next republican debate hosted by cnn. the final meeting the candidates

will have face-to-face before those 11 states vote on tuesday. donald trump can expect some texas heat tonight. his closest rivals have started going hard at the republican front runner, warning voters about the risk of a trump presidency. take a look at ted cruz speaking on fox news last night and marco rubio talking at a rally today here in houston. mr. cruz: the question right now is how do we prevent nominating a candidate who loses the general election, or for that matter if he wins the general election? who knows what he would do as president. we need a president he can trust. >> donald trump said he's not going to take sides on israel versus the palestinians. there is no such thing as an honest broker in that. the palestinian authority teaches five-year-old kids that it's a glorious thing to kill jews.

we will not be in impartial advocate when it comes to israel. we are going to be on israel's side when i'm president. john: all five candidates will have a lot on the line but the person focused on the most will be ted cruz. the debate is being held in his home state, which even his supporters say he must win on tuesday to continue with a plausible chance at the nomination. what could any of them do that would be a game changer on the stage tonight? john: we've seen ted cruz go toe to toe with donald trump and take him on in certain debates. i'm thinking of the one we had here in charleston back in january. ted cruz brought his chops to that battle. will i'm looking more at marco.

a lot of establishment republicans want to know if he has what it takes to go toe to toe with donald trump and if not take him down, at least battle him to a draw. we have not seen that from marco rubio. if you did that tonight it would be potentially a game changer. mark: i'm looking at two big things, if anyone has a temp a -- a tim pawlenty moment. i think donald trump will come back, the question is can you be donald trump at a moment of strength? you have to best him in the. -- substance, theatrics. no one has done that yet at any of these debates. that will be the question, whether they can make donald trump falter on the debate stage. that would be a game changer.

john keep your eye on john : kasich. this is a moment for him. he's always in danger of becoming an asterisk and people ignoring him. it could do him some good in the states he needs to win like michigan and ohio. donald trump, the most entertaining draw at this moment. the new york billionaire finds himself in a match with a multimillionaire who was also a 2012 republican nominee. that's right, mitt romney is back. take the next 40 seconds and catch yourself up. >> the year is 2012. mitt romney is the republican nominee.

2016, mitt romney says we have good reason to believe there is a bombshell on income tax. mitt romney's tax returns made him look like a fool. he called mitt romney awkward and goofy. he fired back. show voters your back taxes. finally harry reid says i cannot imagine mitt romney having the gall to come after anyone's returns. john: i love when we do those things. that is incredible. my question is, why is mitt romney taking on donald trump this way, and will it work? mark: he needs to use his standing and stature and he's using an issue on which he thinks he has enough credibility , which is the question of

scrutiny, to speak out. my hat is off to governor romney. he said all the candidates should put out their returns. he was provocative and saying he thinks there is something in there. no one else in the party has done as much to stand up to donald trump as mitt romney did with this one thing. the fact that he's standing up to him on twitter is more than anyone else has done. it shows you that donald trump is sensitive on this issue. he's not just letting go. he is attacking back ferociously. john: i think there some reason whether it's political or financial. there some reason donald trump has not agreed to release his tax returns yet. he is still hedge on whether he will do it. i think it is a totally legitimate demand on mitt romney's part. i like that he used

shakespearean construction on twitter. if you want to try to stop donald trump, get in the ring for real. mark: coming up, more from our online poll in advance of super tuesday and what they're saying about donald trump's strength, after this. ♪

mark: joining us to dive into the data of our new online poll is doug usher, managing director of our partners at purple strategies. thanks for joining us. let's talk about the

methodology. this is an unusual poll for us to do. it's an online survey of the totality of this cluster of southern state voting tuesday. >> we want to look across the entire geography. this is a region that will basically decide what's happening next in the primary for donald trump and for others. we look at the whole region rather than state by state. mark: how many people did resurvey and how did we find them? >> we use an online panel and we had 1200 plus responses to the survey. mark: we said to this group of southern republicans, if you only choice was donald trump and ted cruz or donald trump and marco rubio, who would you choose? what is the significance of that? >> it goes after two things.

donald trump reaches in the high 30's as he did in our poll in a four or five weight race, but the ceiling almost disappears when he's in it two-way race. mark: we tested ted cruz versus donald trump in iowa and ted cruz one easily and i will. do you think the change is based on donald trump having a run of three victories? is that helping him do better in the head to head? >> absolutely. what you're seeing with some of the state polling that's coming out is that when you have the real focus and you had ted cruz spending a ton of time in iowa, he did a little bit better. now there's a lot less time. donald trump's efforts seem to be paying off and the combination of victory plus strategy, he seems to be doing

very well. john: part of the reason we talked about how good a poll this is for donald trump, it's in terms of what voters saw his strengths of his. walk us through his traits where he leads other rivals by a lot. >> i want to go in the other direction and look at where he is behind. he seen as the least conservative and the least committed christian. this is in southern republican primary voters heads, and he still winning. he's building his coalition on authenticity, or taking from terrorism, and that he can win in the general election. a lot of the conventional wisdom we're hearing is not how these folks feel. really important here is everything we thought we knew about southern republican primary voters, that they care most about being a conservative

and religious christian is being turned on its head here. john: talk about rubio and cruz. if i'm looking at this trade data, what do i see here that gives me some sense of hope? >> honestly, not that much. it seems like ted cruz has done best when he's been able to out conservative and out christian donald trump. the fact that trump as a more positive vision for the future really makes it difficult. one thing that maybe an opening, it's the question of trustworthy. while he is considered authentic, i think there's a question about whether people can really trust him to leave. we see some high negatives in some pockets of the population.

mark: we asked respondents to look at what the pope said about what trump said about the pope. how did that do in our survey? >> donald trump did really well against the pope. think of all the different folks that he has taken on. in this war of words, after hearing the words on both sides about being a true christian, donald trump wins with 64% with the pope just getting 18% in terms of people agreeing with what they have to say. immigration is a hot button issue. it is telling that even among catholics, a majority sided with donald trump on this question. mark: i attributed to the fact that the pope does not have a ground game.

so if you look at the totality of the poll, if you're trying to put together a line of attack on donald trump, is there one that comes out of this? they still overwhelmingly support him in the most conservative region of the country. going after donald trump as being too liberal may not be the way to bring him down, if there is a way to bring him down. >> the problem right now is too many people are looking at donald trump and thinking there is a silver bullet that can take him down. folks in other campaign say he is not as rich as he says he is. the problem right now is not making a choice. the problem is strategic. too many people are aiming to many guns into many different directions. the campaigns cannot coordinate.

as soon as one makes leverage against trump, the other will attack them. it's just the notion of a silver bullet, like he's not conservative or christian enough . he has been married to many times, he says awful things. none of them work unless there is a concerted, directed effort. it is a coordination problem between the campaigns. mark: you can read all about the poll right now at bloomberg politics.com. up next, the 2016 ad wars, super tuesday style. you can now listen to us in washington dc. we will be right back. ♪

john: donald trump's presidential campaign is currently spending a meager $1.3 million. polls show ted cruz with a slight lead in texas. you have to think about all the commercials across america. let's take a look at hillary clinton's ads. she's running these spots in south carolina featuring the mayor of columbia, stephen benjamin and congressman jim clyburn. >> i'm the mayor of south carolina's capital city, but this is my most important job. i'm writing an open letter to my daughters explaining why

working so hard to elect hillary clinton. let's move forward with hillary clinton. >> i think if one were to look at the qualifications of the candidates and reflect upon who can best get us to that place, i think hands down it is hillary clinton. john: i've been down here for most of this week. the airwaves are awash with hillary clinton advertising aimed at african american voter. she's been a lot of money on these commercials and it looks like she's trying to run up the score here and shove and dagger in bernie sanders heart. what do you think about those ads? mark: when a campaign is winning him it's easy to say the campaign manager is a genius. i firmly believe that hillary clinton's performance over the last week has been as good as it's been in the campaign and maybe as good as i have ever

seen her. those at our great. ads are great. the ads in nevada were great. her team is doing really well. i don't know why they did not have ads with that much emotion previously. it's all part of a strong messaging operation from the candidate on down. john: i totally agree. in every way focused on these key minority constituencies, in this case african-americans. morgan freeman voicing those ads. very strong and creative. i agree with you about all of that. mark: here's an ad from marco rubio's team carrying in virginia on broadcast television. >> 36 years ago this nation faced doubt after a failed presidency. it felt like america was in decline and the american dream felt like it was slipping away.

then we elected a president that inspired us, who believed as we do that america's greatest days always lie ahead. now the children of the reagan revolution are ready to assume the mantle of leadership. mark: what do you think of the message of that ad? john: i like the optimism and the fact that it's not some of the trash talking that donald trump gets involved in. a lot of the images and rhetoric there are little hackneyed and could be run by pretty much any republican presidential candidate since ronald reagan. mark: the best thing about it is the tone and the way they show the candidate. i think that address both his strengths and weaknesses in a pretty effective way. john: the ad makers of john kasich super pac had this doozy going up in vermont,

massachusetts, and michigan. >> politicians and lobbyists are rushing to crown marco rubio, but national polls show john is the one to beat hillary clinton by 11 points, not marco rubio. of all the gop candidates, only john kasich has the experience to be president. only john kasich. d.c. lobbyists wrong? now, there is a first. john: there it is, the incredible shrinking rubio, according to that super pac. what do you think about that at? -- ad? mark: it's the most uplifting music i've ever heard in a negative ad. [laughter] john: that's all you got for me? mark: is super pac is trying to do what needs to be done to get the establishment vote.

john kasich is still playing on a pretty small field, but it might be picking up. john: some of the most eye-catching, unconventional ads of our political careers, that ad is relatively tame by those standards. coming up, we talked to one of john kasich's closest advisers. we will be right back. ♪

john: welcome back to the town they call in manhattan. here with me is the former new

hampshire senator and the current director of john kasich's campaign, or at least one of them, john sununu. who's left in the field? john: five candidates but three choices. crazy, inexperience and john kasich. the path starts march 1. there are a bunch of proportional primaries. then we go to much more favorable territory to him. michigan, ohio, criticism. he's within the margin of error in ohio, running far better than marco rubio in florida. if he wins, winner take all in ohio, we have a new ballgame. mark: why is it that so many are saying it's now a three-person race? >> it starts with laziness. you know as well as i do the media is kind of lazy.

mark: i know better than you do. >> they say donald trump has won three primaries now, it must be over. it's not the case. we have only one person left in the race with chief executive experience. one who's cut taxing, created balance and more jobs. that's john kasich. he did great in new hampshire, exceeded expectations in south carolina and he's going to do very well in massachusetts, arkansas, vermont. even threshold states like tennessee. mark: endorsements are overrated but after jeb bush got out of the race, and even before, marco rubio has received an enormous number of endorsements. john kasich has gotten some but not nearly the number and the prominence.

where are kasich's friends like haley barbour, chris christie? >> senator trent lott, army. mark: you've had those before. i'm not being critical of it. part of narrative seems to be that rubio is now the guy. >> that's a now thing. mark: where are haley barbour and chris christie? he's a governor. why will the other governors not rallying around him? >> you make a case. i don't ever know that he's had a close relationship with haley barbour. mark: oh, he does. >> second, i would say fear. they don't want to be with a

winner. they don't want to take a risk. no one wants to jump in and take on donald trump. but it's not about endorsements, it's about voters, what voters look for in a candidate and a chief executive. you know as well as i do donald trump doesn't have the temperament to be commander in chief. he has changed position on issues, that's north the kind of leader we need. kasich served as ohio in governor, privatizing services, creating jobs, balancing the budget. he cut taxing, in ohio. whose taxes has ted cruz cut? nobody. mark: it's great to be positive about your message but it's said the time is overdo for a real effort to stop donald trump. and if so why isn't your candidate doing it? >> i don't think that's right. lots of people list the problems

with donald trump. chris christie exposed on national tv how inexperienced, scripted and rehearsed marco rubio is, that he doesn't have the temperament and experience and skills to be president. it didn't help chris christie at all. you have to put out a positive vision for moving the country and talk about your skills and experience. john kasich has done that. that's why in states like south carolina and nevada he has exceeded expectations. mark: do you think donald trump is clinically crazy or is it just a glib line? >> i said relative to the temperament you want in a nominee. i didn't say donald trump was crazy.

i said there's only one john kasich in the kasich lain and the others are somewhere else. mark: how do you think he's going to do in the debate? >> i think the best way to address the american public is to talk about the problems we have. national security, how to restore america's standing in the world. john kasich has done that in every debate and he'll do it again tonight. that's what the voters want and deserve. the media wants something different -- mud slinging, name calling and a spectacle and john kasich at every turn has refused to give that to the media and has instead stood up for what the country needs. leadership, someone who can solve problems and who's done it and that's john kasich. mark: john sununu. thank you. up next, the dean of the american political press corps is here to school us on the

debates and the nomination fights, dan balz joins us after this. ♪

mark: welcome back and joining me now, the chief correspondent "washington post," dan balz. thanks for coming by. dan: my pleasure. mark: where do you think efforts to halt or slow down donald trump stand in advance of the debate? we saw today rubio and cruz being a little bit more outspoken about it. dan: a little bit more. i think we'll learn more at the debate tonight. i think they still have this question or qualm about whether they really want to get in a one-on-one with donald trump before the other is out and

there's no incentive five for the three of them to get at it at this point. they're in a bit of a bind. mark: the single elimination danger in the coming weeks with ted cruz and kasich. ted and heidi cruz are spending a fair amount of time in texas. is there worry they could lose the state? dan: you would assume that they think they have to make sure they nail it down and can't take any chances. if you talk to them, they express confidence about it and beyond texas, they don't talk as if texas is the only place they think they have a real shot at winning on super tuesday but you and i have talked to strategists in advance of an event where they sound more confident than they are. they know that if they don't win texas, they don't have a path forward. if that's the priority -- and the question is, is that enough?

that's the other issue when you get influence super tuesday. let's say he wins texas and donald trump were to win everything else. then is winning texas alone good enough to keep going? they see march 5 as having a series of states that are favorable to cruz and so they'll have every incentive to stay in after that. we're flying a little bit mind but each of the three has a big test coming up. mark: when you look at what's happened since jeb bush got out after south carolina, you've seen more of the accomplishment go to john kasich. why is it that more of the donors and members of congress and governors haven't tilted towards kasich more? dan: it's a little bit of a mystery. i think in part they probably think that has a campaigner, he's a more consistent campaigner and has a fuller

message that you would take into a general election and that he could conceivably do better in the latino community than an anglo candidate would do. you know, they do ignore the fact that he is a first-term senator without a significant record. mark: they've shown no willingness or desire to stop donald trump, which is to me is the number one thing for anyone who would like to be the nominee. dan: they're buying into his campaign's argument that when we get him isolated, if we ever do, we'll be able to take him down. no evidence of that on his part to this point and no compunction on his part to suggest he's really got the strength to do that. mark: as you said, the debate tonight will potentially tell a lot of the story but between now and tuesday, cruz obviously has the most on the line. he has to win here or he's done.

who's got more on the line you think on tuesday, between marco rubio and john kasich? dan: probably marco rubio because he's the person at this point who is trying to show that he can get closer to donald trump. the kasich strategy is a high-risk strategy, which is kind of pick around the edges on super tuesday and then do something important in michigan as a prelude to ohio. but for rubio, he can't say i'm going to wait entirely until florida. mark: what's good enough for him on tuesday, you think? dan: i really don't know. every week we see somebody claim somebody that seems more than justifiable -- mark: is there a state they think they can win on tuesday? dan: i don't know in there's a state they think they can win. they've been very careful from the beginning never to say they have a must-win state. on the one hand it's preserved their ability to say we never

said we're going to win a state. on the other hand, you can't keep losing. mark: trump said i haven't got a budget. it's not very much spread over the super tuesday states. he could drop 20 million in texas on tv and try to bury ted cruz. dan: you remember in 2008 on the obama campaign they dropped 15 million or 20 million in hove -- in ohio and texas with the goal of ending it and that much money in those two states alone concentrated was not enough to do it. mark: hillary clinton won them both. dan: i don't think there's enough money you can put in these states. mark: so why put any? dan: maybe he feels guilty and he's reaching the stage of when he's going to have to do more of what conventional candidates do.

you have to demonstrate you have some capacity to do that. mark: i hope he starts traveling with a press corps. that would be nice. what's the most encouraging things you can see for bernie sanders? dan: that he can win a number of states on super tuesday. we go to the next hurdle. mark: dan balz, i'll see you at the next debate site. we switch to the democratic side and talk with the south carolina party chair after these words from our sponsors. ♪

>> if you take money from wall street, can you regulate wall street? barack obama took more money from wall street than any candidate who's ever run for president. turned around, passed and signed the dodd frank bill so i think you should be judged on what you've done and i'm more than happy to put my record against bernie sanders. if you look at what caused the great recession, a bill he voted for in 2000 had a greater impact than most of the talk that we're now doing so let's get everybody out on the same field. i don't mind being responsive and answering questions but at some point, i want everybody to have to answer. >> i respect that calm. can you assure the american people that you didn't say anything in those speeches that would undermine your promise to be tough on wall street and big banks? >> absolutely.

>> that was a sneak peek at hillary clinton's interview with joe scarborough from msnbc's this morning. that interview will hair in full in the morning. in the palmetto state, the state party chair, jamie harrison. jamie, welcome back to the show. jamie: thanks for having me. john: so i want to start -- and i know you're a positive guy and you like to talk about the good things on the democratic side of the aisle. so i want to ask you first, hillary clinton has been here a lot over to the run-up to this primary. tell me what you think she's done right in terms of getting the kind of support not just to win but maybe win big here on saturday. jamie: first and foremost she got the endorsement of jim clyburn, which is really big in south carolina. he's probably one of the only democrats that has an established machine in terms of getting out the vote so that was a big win for her.

one of the things she's gone done from the start when she decided to throw her hat into the ring again for the presidency. she's been methodical in terms of building an operation here and not just relying on endorsements from leaders in the african-american community or the democratic establishment but by going into the communities and having her staff build this grassroots effort. so she's done a really good job doing that but bernie sanders has poured a lot of energy and effort into doing that as well. john: talk about that a little bit more. i think most of us expected this week you would have clinton and sanders this week going after it hammer and tongs all week. after nevada that changed. sanders is not spending as much time as a lot of people expected. he's right now in illinois, on his way to minnesota. i was with him yesterday in

kansas. tell me before we talk about what you think he might not have done well, tell me what you think he has done well here to give himself a fighting chance on saturday. >> he hired some really good staff. he took away one of my staff persons. my deputy executive director crystal spain and used her as one of his political advisors. he's hired a lot of folks who are known to be on the ground. grassroots activists. so he's done a really good job on the staffing of his campaign and he has some good people in the legislature that are supporting him. justice bamberg, representative terry alexander so i think he's done as much as he can to come into this race. no one knew who bernie sanders was here in south carolina or very few people knew so he had a

steep hill to climb in terms of increasing he is name i.d. in the state. i think he's done a good job. the question is has he done enough? john: besides the fact that sanders is not very well known here, why is it that hillary clinton has the large lead and all the polling suggests that -- i know that sanders had a bill hill to climb. are there things you think he could have done that he hasn't? where has he made mistakes or come up short? jaime: what i was teacher i used to tell my students the most persuasive argument you can ever make is one that shows and not tell. bernie's done a great job of telling us an wall street and inequality in terms of income but what he needs to do to really connect with

african-american voters and voters in the south is how he demonstrates, that how he shows that. he needs to bring in more anecdotes, start to highlight real people and showcase how the policies that he's for, how they impact the lives of folks. i think if he can do that he probably will connect more with folks, particularly with african-americans and that could be more helpful for him moving forward into other southern states. john: we've said that it seems to me hillary clinton being here so much this week was an effort to run up the score on bernie sanders. one thing i want examined to see more of, bill clinton. he's here and he'll be here tomorrow. back in 2008 obviously bill clinton had a difficult time in the state and did things that were controversial. do you think they're keeping him out of the state in order to potentially remind some african-american voters of the

controversial stuff he did in the last primary or two primaries ago? jaime: i don't think so. i think they're just strategically using the president. he's also doing fundraising for secretary clinton as well. i think it's a mixture of all those things. these campaigns are becoming much more expensive and i'm four sure the fundraising is a huge component. john: looking forward to saturday, do you think there's a reasonable chance that there could be any real surprise on saturday? i don't mean bernie sanders pulling an upset but sanders coming a lot closer than people expect. do you think that's within in realm of possibility? jaime: i'm interested in the demographics, particularly in the african-american community,

whether the young people are voting for sanders and the middle-aged, older folks voting for hillary clinton. i want to also see the turn outnumbers. is bernie sanders bringing more people than barack obama did? in 2008, 14% of the electorate was between the ages of 18 and 29. so are more young people coming out in terms of bernie sanders? those things i think are interesting because i think that will play out also in other states. john: thank you very much. i get the sense you don't think there's going to be a big surprise on saturday. coming up, "who won the week?" we'll be right back. ♪

john: we find ourselves at the end of another day so i ask you my favorite question, who won it? mark: mitt romney. trump struck back, romney struck back again and so far, as elton john would say, he's still standing. john: two winners today. mitt romney but also donald trump dominated the poll. check out the website for our debate coverage and mark's comments. those are key. mark: "bloomberg west" coming up. see you tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

♪ rishaad: this is "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. ♪ rishaad: it is just after 10:00 in hong kong. the pboc looking to shore confidence and china's economy, calling it impressive and positive.

sharp shares plunging after foxconn puts off signing its takeover. the taiwanese company says it needs new material information. ,eyond search, earnings baidu.ors welcome b let's have a look at what's going on. a toward time of it in shanghai. where making up some of that lost ground. looks like the pboc governor trying to shore confidence. looks like it's working slightly. shares up, but not nearly enough to recover what we saw yesterday when small cap and tech stocks plummeted. the shanghai composite fell 6%.