guy: welcome to "on the move." we're counting down to the european open. here is what we're watching. job stay in the usa. nonfarm payrolls are out at 1:30 u.k. time. -- will it take brazil rallied more than 5% overnight entering bull market territory. we'll discuss what that rally means and whether it can last. in china's political elite

gather in beijing to approve the latest plan. how will they deal with the latest currency volatility? hans, good morning. two stories, one is china and one is the payroll data. it depends what you think is more important. china has way, signaled what they want. they want more currency stability. if we get a big impressive number today we could see more fed hikes in twice 16 than previously expected which brings us closer to dollar-euro parity. which means in my case with more relatives visiting. we will not even talk but how rich i would feel when i come visit you and stay with the johnsons. >> it depends whether it is post or pre-brexit. i think that trade will work for

you. that's where the money will be made. >> 30 minutes until the european open. but cyclic it where the terminal is because what we can see in the fair value constellation press the futures markets athe european cold at this day. zero point 5%. we will talk about the emerging markets because that's a big deal overnight give a few will numbers you what to show. >> when we take a look at assets across all categories we see a big move in gold. we also have wti. that is a big story throughout the day. up.t is also the best three weeks since 2014 and finally we have to take a look at what is happening with the dollar ahead of that jobs number.

really maybe we will see it moving after the jobs number. let's get the latest on bloomberg's first word news. >> china's political elite are gathering in beijing to approve the communist party's five-year plan. >> goldman sachs and bank of america are planning job cuts to rein in cuts as market route pressures return. meanwhile, bank of america will dismiss about 150 trading and investment banking employees next week according to people familiar with the decision. >> with the latest nonfarm payrolls data later. expect the unemployment rate to hold at an eight year low. the median forecast sees an increase of 195,000 jobs. 151,000.increase of

, killing, thank you indeed. u.s. nonfarm payroll data are expected to show increased hirings in february that could strengthen the fed case for a rate hike when it meets later this month. robert kaplan believes that policymakers should not rush to hike rates. >> at the fed, we should avoid having a predetermined mindset. regarding the path to policy. it should be driven by our ongoing process of cyclical trends. it makes sense to emphasize at this juncture that monetary policy remains accommodative but i would note it is somewhat less accommodative than it was january 1. guy: robert kaplan speaking to bloomberg there. let's bring in our chief investment officer talking about

unemployment and he says that the market may be disappointed. the market is getting used to hundred thousand numbers from payroll which is becoming the norm and has been for a little while now. we started to see which is picking up and some evidence. the question and everybody's mind is would a further fed rate hike destabilize that? been quitebers have strong in recent years in getting close to 200,000. what will be important to the fed is wage growth which will ultimately feed the demand and lead to growth. the other one suffered in recent years has been the participation rate. if we see an update in which growth and the participation rate at this plenty to an sitter . >> a visa you have the run to november.

what is the more important fact of the economy? >> i think you're right. this element of considering the mandate for the central bank to consider unemployment growth and obviously inflation. the political landscape is very challenging. there are some strong voices in the u.s. that are calling for quite radical economic policies which is clearly a concern. the other thing that central bankers do not often talk about are the huge mountains of debt. mind.s also on their that's why some would say it is better to wait and see for the time being. hans: when you look at the next half of the year, what is the bigger question for you?

how many times they hike or when they do hike? >> it is definitely how many. the one question can move quite quickly but even if they do one hike this year, what is the difference? what is the impact whether it is a financial market or the economy. it could be very slow and very gradual. >> we see something happen in june and that gives an indication that we could have future rate hikes done the line. if we don't have any negative jpmorgan is suggesting differently. >> the economic data has been quite supportive. even if you look at where the data is coming versus they always find the fragility in their economy

but it is a strong picture. potential slowdowns of growth in emerging markets that could have the u.s. on to economy. >> i wouldn't know anything about that. the german finance minister reveals that there will be tears in berlin if it u.k. votes out of the eu.

guy: the market called a little bit later. a half-point rally for the ftse 100. his caroline hyde. >> for goldman sachs and bank of .merica are planning job cuts

5% of traders and salespeople. america willnk of have about when it would 50 trading and investment banking employees next week. groupndon stock exchange has jumped from 78 points -- to 2.2 9 billion pounds. are planning -- extending their planned merger from ice to the owner of the new york stock exchange. china's richest man is creating the largest cinema chain. is group controls amc which buying the rival car mike. combines the second and fourth biggest theater chains. the german finance

minister has used a gathering of u.k. business leaders to make his feeling clear about a possible brexit. wolfgang schaeuble was asked about a possible brexit. >> what would germany do if the u.k. voted to leave the eu? >> we would cry. [laughter] you know, i hope we will not. it's a decision of the british people. are cooks that went away you got the exact mo

hans: how much of an effect will that have on voters in the u.k.? see voters, with big statement about how they feel and the referendum in the u.k. and all of the world. fundamentally, the electorate will make that decision based on what matters to them. clearly there are key issues at stake whether it is the economy or immigration. these kind of statements will .nly add to the debate people are fundamentally looking at other things at other things that matter to them more than big statements from politicians. are i looked at the germans playing good cop and the french are playing bad cop. tradable story. on the other hand, there is a pair. at euro sterling there are implications on the other side.

the markets are a little quicker on the downside and a little slower to pricing the downside for the rest of the eurozone. >> currency is one of the places where uncertainty manifest itself. >> it's also a sign that there is the confidence in the economy. there are some exporters who will clearly benefit from that the one needs to look in the the surface. this is not really the time to impacttive given that guy: sterling is already priced in it we could be plateauing or looking at a potential rally? >> potentially yeah.

the contrarian view is that we will see it weaken from here and if you look at it since the referendum was announced although the pound did come under pressure it is bounceback. that does not stop it from developing into the medium or longer-term. >> it means we will split the round. next we will look at some of the corporate movers. that's the we're interested in. is there interested in takeover story.

hans: welcome back to "on the move." i am hans nichols in berlin. i want to take a look at two securities that entered bull

markets overnight. pair.re an interesting we know they have been on a tear since the beginning of last year. last but the entered bull market territory. we see the bull market go up and the brazilian market go down. political instability through that which is showing the .otential stability in we have a bit of an emerging market run and we have a goal heading north. how do we break this down? what we have to say about the glitters in the gold to stay? guy: maybe there is a dollar overly. set up their to

alerts so you can see these bull market is a start to happen. this is the bloomberg surprise function. i want to pull out a couple of things. we're getting surprises and the other line -- i want to show you a couple of cool things. let's zoom in here. what you got here are the economic surprises getting better and better. the s&p is rallying, unsurprising. attention to what is happening and soon on the last few weeks to show you what is happening here. in the euro area, the data has gone from green to red and continues to knows over a little bit. the stock market has rallied.

this is the dax in your part of the world. the dax is rallying but the data is getting worse. >> there is a strange association. because explaining by saying that brazil is a one-off where we have different political situations going on. your short is more fundamentally ethical to explain. there,s a divergence where and less we really go big at wimbledon, and you will buy the drinks, then maybe we can explain it. but before we get to the nonfarm payroll, i don't think either of us have the capacity. guy: i wonder whether there is also a banking capacity. great stuff, battle of the charts. i will give that went to hans today. i don't know why. let's figure out which stocks to watch ahead of the open. daroline: if you have not od; on charts, we have more.

lse invoke because they just cannot with their full-year numbers. >> the battle intensifies as we understand the owner of the new york stock exchange ice could be coming to muscle in on the torch of border. overall we could see the share price operating profit up 27%. higher-than-expected. the consensus -- cyber security software. about 6% to 7%. it has had a rough ride of it. the share price now down to 59 and we could see a pump. 27% and themped

profit margin did fault but they say it will improve over the course of 2016. heerestingly, olivier says opposes backdoor access to smartphones for the government so clearly coming down and apple's side as well. this is a cyber security company and lastly, montclair. a little bit of luxury to wrap this up for friday. this luxury company has actually been battered over the course of 12 months. we could see montclair up about 1% or 2% on the open today which could just try that a little bit higher this morning. coming out with numbers of 2015 revenue it hundred 18 million revenues, better than expected. and the fx are up 19%. >> caroline, thank you very much indeed. so to explain the market to meet at the moment. .tocks are rallying

walk me through what that tells us about investor sentiment. did we just go too far question mark >> if you roll the clock back a couple of weeks there was prevailing mood of negativity. this rally was in some ways unsurprising given how negative things were. the value investors came into the market and others that there would be negativity around. when you are showing economic surprises it is clear that might interpretation of the chart is the market not being driven by the fundamentals. there are clearly other factors it play. central banks are sentiment has driven this rally that we have seen. >> where do we go from here? >> i seen a number of risks. we seen it did down in recent weeks so we should expect higher volatility as the year

progresses. >> the market open is next. we close up around 0.5% here in europe. the market open is next. ♪

guy: good morning. welcome to "on the move." i'm guy johnson, alongside hans nichols. here is your morning brief. it is jobs day in the usa. non pharm payrolls are out at 1:30 this afternoon. what will the data mean for the fed and the market? we entered a bull market overnight. the latest five-year plan in beijing. how will the leaders plan to manage currency and volatility? that is the big question out there. hans: let's take a quick look at

futures before we go to caroline hyde. i see mostly green here. we are up 3/10 of 10%. with that, let's go to caroline hyde. caroline: many are playing catch-up. we closed in the red yesterday. we ended our five day winning streak and went red in europe. will be re-galvanize ourselves -- will we recount and i've re-galvanize ourselves? we are seeing risk on. .25%tse 100 opens at higher. now of course, the on the industry group that is higher in terms of this year. we see miners up. they were beaten up last year and now, a managed to be entering a bit of a bull market. gold is in a bull market.

brazil is in a bull market. risk appetite in the equity market, risk appetite when it comes to crude oil as well. 0.2 5%.p this is your brand contract, up 5% over the course of the week. u.s. data is looking better. china is adding to monetary stimulus. there is hope they could list fiscal talk -- they could boost fiscal talk. gold is in a bull market. it is down just a little bit today. let's show you where gold is on the week. we are up three percentage points. copper is managing to pick itself up as well, up 4.3% this week. we are rising copper to its highest levels since november.

this drives miners and the likes of oil higher. lse is up 8/10 of 1%. with lisi america get involved -- will we see america get involved in of the merger? could ice be mugging that water? up 7%.venue is gemalto is up 7.5%. profit is up 20%. he profit margin is falling, but it looks better. let's and on a little bit of luxury. moncler is up by 3.8%. you know it, the luxury ski outlet. 2015as we see moncler's numbers beat fx numbers. guy: let's talk a little bit about the imap.

wheel isis completely green this morning. a little bit of red is creeping onto the screen. i want to show you this, hans. we have been talking about material stocks. this is anglo-american. you can see this massive down drop in the stock. we are now starting to rally, but in percentage terms that rally is enormous. if you bought at the right time, the move is massive. the big question is, is this a china move or an oversold move? hans: or is it a little bit more confidence in the emerging markets? just to defend myself, i guess j guy, anyway, let's move on to china. i am aware these people exist,

but let's move on to china. the national people's conference will kick off in beijing this week. it is important to decide the five-year plan. haidi joins us live from beijing. what are we going to expect from this five-year plan? haidi: i guess if you were to -- they are looking for this balance between supporting short-term interests. we know the economy in china has slowed to the most it has an 25 years. they will be talking about the supply-side of reforms. in particular, they will be talking about industries like steel and coal. you can see behind me how bad

the pollution is behind me. it is really an environmental issue to get some of these steel and coal producers to be shut down. this is also a profitability issue. these sectors have the highest revenues, but lowest probability. at the same time, policymakers are really up against a wall. they are also trying to balance the unemployment issue. we know there is a very strong correlation there in their minds. we have had estimates leading into the congress that some 5 million-6 million workers could be laid off in the next couple years. these reforms are not going to be easy. it is like taking a knife to one's own flesh, is how he put

it. so far, policymakers have pushed through these reforms. ghey do seem to be leadinnin towards an easing. gdp is surging to record highs here in beijing. it will be interesting. most analysts are not expecting any big bang reforms. we are looking forward to tomorrow to see how policymakers will balance out these very much conflicting needs. guy: i think everybody is listening to you and taking those numbers and. they are focusing on the picture behind you, which is one of amazing traffic and the fact that you can barely see the away.ngs half a kilometer air pollution has to be on the top of the list in terms of what they are dealing with. twitteres, someone on

said early on that it looks like i am trapped in a scene from disney's "frozen." it is really quite remarkable. this comes after several weeks of bluye skies. we know the smog issue for beijing has been a chronic issue. over the first couple months of the year, pollution has dropped by some 14%. that is not surprising giving the chinese new year and the effect it has on businesses. they shut down their factories. definitely, in addition to the overcapacity issue, the environmental reasons are very high on the agenda. policymakers need to be shutting down some of these steel and coal industries. back to you. guy: great stuff. and yeah, i think you need to go inside. ndon.e joined now from lo

we are talking about visibility in china and we mean a whole bunch of different things. the chinese authorities have gotten more of a grip now. we have not heard from the pbod c in ages, but we are now starting to hear forrom them. at the beginning of the year, people were panicked. >> without a doubt. this is a great opportunity to get closer to what the policymakers are looking to do to adjust the economy in china. it has obviously achieved higher rates of growth, but the adjustment phase is challenging for the policymakers. it is interesting, we're looking at the comments. chinese policymakers are looking for easing. if you geive that kind of growth to janet yellen, she would not be easing right now. hans: it seems there has been a shift.

a couple months ago, there were as no confidence. now, that seems to have shifted, but i'm not sure why. an elementthere was in uncertainty, regarding what china was looking to achieve. if you look at it, it is quite simple. they are moving from an export led manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy. the biggest challenge they have huges the accumulation of credit. they need to show they have got a grip around that credit by actually controlling the growth. at the moment, it does not seem that they have. . am not entirely convinced guy: how big a worry is that for you? the numbers are absolutely enormous. and you look at how in the past, we have seen these debt bubbles

unwind. very few of them and well. is that what we are looking at now? is this just a delaying tactic? how do they work their way through this? >> the size of the debt is not the biggest. it is just the ramp up of the debt. guy: it is equivalent to what we had going into the financial crisis. the numbers are comparable. >> even more extreme. that is clearly on their minds. that is a risk they have to navigate. they obviously have central-bank action. they can look at the currency, which has been a big story this year. that is the challenge they have. how do you control that debt from creating a big catastrophe in the chinese economy? that is what they want to avoid. hans: and then, how do you even put a figure on that debt? there are so many questions to ask about that story.

will stay withir us. , we will look at consolidation next, we will look at consolidation within the industry. will we see a bidding war? ♪

guy: you are watching "on the move." the london on markets. we have seen a huge rally in the mining stocks agai.

anglo-american, has rallied. nevertheless, the rally on anglo-american is absolutely spectacular if you got in at the right moment. give us the first world news. nejra: we get the latest u.s. non pharm payroll data later. datamists expect the to hold at 4.8%. elites political are gathering in beijing. there are demands and pressures to find a balance between growth and reform, as well as improve the environment. goldman sachs and bank of america are planning job cuts as returns.t rut

goldman sachs will eliminate 5% of traders. meanwhile, bank of america will dismiss about 150 trading and investment bank employees next week. legal proceedings have started over a ledge it market -- over alleged market manipulation. anz denies wrongdoing and says it will fight the case. the german finance minister has made his feelings about a potential brexit clear. he appeared alongside george osborne in the british chamber of commerce's annual meeting in london. >> we would -- [indiscernible]

not. hope we will nejra: global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. hans, i don't think we want to see schaeuble cry. hans: it is nice to hear him have a sense of humor in english. meanwhile, the head of the world's largest hedge fund says investors should expect the returns in volatile financial markets for some time. he does not foresee a repeat of the global financial crisis. >> i am not expecting something like 2008 because 2008 was a debt crisis. paid and could not be

that was what 2008 was. this is not a crisis situation. i don't think we will see a big bang crisis. i think what we will see is this kind of situation in which there is the dynamic of a relative notnation, low returns, and returnsking up of low in volatile and a second markets. hans: interesting to see what jpmorgan is saying right now. let's talk mma now and the lse. consolidation has been the theme pretty much my entire career. some deals have worked and some have failed. deutsche bank and ice have shown interest in the exchange. do we care about the results? >> honestly, not really.

they are pretty much in line. what the results to show you is why mma is so important. if you look at the reported revenue growth of 70% and then you look at the ongoing basis, it is 10%. importantare a very part of this industry. hans: if you were arbitrage and ing this, who is the one regulator's inbox you would want to have? >> that is a very good question because without a shadow of the doubt, part of the issue is you have methods and then, you have a deal like this that would thectively stop the access lse has. i guess, the regulators behind methods. and i guess the deutsche bank's inbox to see what they are

trying to offer to get this deal done. guy: the ongoing ceo was talking about consolidation back in november. where has this been coming from? >> this was first mentioned a couple of decades ago. they have been in talks for a very long time. if you look at how big ice has got, this combined is the same size as cme now. the europeans have fallen behind market cap wise. hans: i want to follow up on that because you wiggled out of it cleverly saying you would hack into the ceo's email. we don't advise that. if you have to take a look at the regulators, would you say counterparts in in the u k and u.s.? >> i think at the moment, it would be european. methods has material impacts on

this deal. guy: do you think regulators will say that we need a european champion? >> germany has been very vocal in their support, funnily enough . but there is good reason. the lse is huge. but you put those verses the u.s. competition, relatively -- it would not be such a bad thing. hans: this is one area where we might see brussel in berlin on the same page. may be looking the other way. jonathan, thanks for joining us. up next, we will be looking at the swap index which suggests the bank of england will not raise rates until 2020. ♪

guy: 23 minutes into the market open. you are watching "on the move." the ftse 100 is outperforming. the ftse 100 is outperforming. why is that? let me show you what is happening with the minors, which are again rallying hard. anglo, 4.5%. beingare decent gains made in terms of these minors. they are digging themselves out of a very big hole.

hans: forgive the pun with di butg and miners, caroline hyde never misses a pun. the ecb is more likely to raise rates before the bank of england. tell us if guy and i will even be employed to see the day. caroline: you have to hang around until 2020. that is when these current indexes seem to be feeling the next rate hike. the ecb could actually be rate hiking sooner than the united kingdom. this is currently the morgan stanley index. this is the morgan stanley s waps-based index. the beginning of the year, they thought 10 months until the u.k. hikes. now they are pushing it back 45

months. they are now excelling the ecb guy: i could not believe this chart less if i tried. brexitket is pricing in the market is using some of these instruments to price in brexit. it has nothing to do with whether the bank of england will be hiking or cutting. it is all down for thto the market looking for liquid ways. caroline: we have actually u -- this is of course, a complete. of using -- this is of course, a complete myriad of using different technical reasons. actually, we had a guest on the radio saying this but everything. we could actually see a rate hike coming sooner, rather than

later, to support sterling. hans: it is a great point what guy is making. what i don't see the market doing -- and maybe you can explain this to me -- is right in what the brexit will do. if you think you will have a selloff in the euro as well, you have to cross the line. europe have to say, brexit is doing this to sterling, but it will also do this to the euro. caroline: absolutely. having tos draghi inspire growth across the eurozone, but adding to his woes is something out of his control, which is the u.k. vote on a referendum and whether or not we will remain within the eu. wonder we have leaders from france and germany coming over to support the fact that we should remain within the eu.

guy: thanks, caroline. up next, we will talk jobs day in the usa. obviously, the market is paying attention. ♪

guy: welcome back. you are watching "on the move." let's see how things are shaping up. london is outperforming, as you can see. london is outperforming because the minors are on an absolute tear. big numbers have been posted over the last couple days. let's catch up on but you need to know. here is caroline hyde. caroline: i have got to show you a particularly volatile stock. this company is on an absolute tear. many in the market are watching this.

up, soe oil market goes does sedro. this has been gathering steam throughout the week. an $11 billion debt load. fredrickson be looking to participate in any sort of restructuring? this is a company that has been decimated. by thepany has been hit retraction in a spending in the oil market. it looks like people are starting to bet big on this stock. isnwhile, gemalto outperforming and we are up 10%. this is a cyber security company. the chief executive is backing what apple is doing, saying we should not make backdoors into

the encryption codes in smartphones. this is giving the investor base a bit of jubilation today. sales jumped some 27%. gamesa.ownside is it is only down 3.4%. this is a spanish gaming company and it looks as though -- not gaming, sorry. this is a spanish wind power company. they arelike the looking at combining their wind power assets. there is some bid uncertainty and the management is looking at unresolved legal and political doubts over the transaction that will combine their wind powered assets. this has yet to be confirmed by bloomberg, but it is taking a

toll on the share price. 195,000 jobs are forecasted to be added. the unemployment rate is holding steady at 4.9%. that could strengthen the fed's case for a rate hike. robert kaplan believes policymakers should not rush to raise rates. >> i believe we should avoid having a predetermined mindset regarding the path of policy at this point. the path should be driven by our ongoing analysis of the otheral, as well as cycli trends. i would note, it is somewhat less accommodative than it was light ofry 1, in migh recent tightening of financial conditions. hans: thanks for joining us. kaplan is pretty new on the fed.

he is sounding awfully dovish. is it fair to peg him as a dove? >> i think that is probably right, but i think there is a bigger picture going on out there. i am not entirely sure that we have actually seen a tightening of financial conditions. ields have largely fallen across the board. it has largely been a bond market story this year. i think he is right in the sense guys-- i don't think these are on a predetermined course in any way whatsoever. i think, given the evolution we have seen in the data and in global financial markets this be surprised if these guys pull the trigger in march. guy: can i just take you to the data.

look at what is happening in the u.s. sector isal household starting to see some wage growth creeping in. is overall tone of the data starting to get a little bit better from a market perspective. what does that do to the fed's thinking. the fed may be did not get a down beat as the market did, but they are nevertheless, looking at this data. >> the fed is looking at a fairly large amount of data. right now, the big question in their minds is, how does the output gap, the closing of the in withap, fill it inflation? wage growth is very much welcome, but i think the important thing for them is how that translates into inflation and price growth. from that respect, i think they are in a wait and see mode.

they have a 2/3 chance within the next 24 months. theye next three years, think we will see a u.s. recession. >> i think it is fair to say that we are moving towards a slowdown. whether this will translate into something much more serious, it is really difficult to know at this stage. the outcome will be the result of central-bank choices and how much consumer confidence has been hit by the recent turmoil in financial markets. hans: you talk about recent turmoil in a financial markets. it seems as though a lot of that is affecting inflation expectations in europe. when you look at the german insistence that this deflation is not real, how much longer is

it sustainable for them to make that case? they are in the quiet period, so it is all speculation. >> listen, i think you are making a great point. should startf us recognizing that monetary policy does have its limitations. in order to get inflation going and to start seeing that relationship, we need support from the fiscal front. i don't know how long the germans -- how long it will take them to accept that. i think we have started to see a number of central banks globally recognizing the limitations of monetary policy. some are calling for some help from the fiscal front. how does that translate into the fx market?

will germany start spending money? take me through this. >> that is a fascinating question and especially, when you put it in context of where we are with valuations right now. it has been the story for the past five months. we are through a major overvaluation in the dollar. the u.s. dollar is overvalued by a number of major currencies, including the euro. from the perspective, i think what we have started to see is some correction that is bound to continue. as far as the ecb is concerned, i think the euro has priced in -- it feels lower than it should be. if the ecb want to keep it lower, they will have to go out

of their way next week. hans: thank you for joining us. he is going to stay with us. moving on. up next, we have breaking up is so hard to do. there will be berlin if the u.k. votes out of the eu. we will talk brexit next. ♪

guy: welcome back.

we are 41 minutes into the equity session. the chinese markets have closed. there is an interesting line flipping around this morning. china is said to be intervening with stocks. interesting, yes. i look at what is happened with the chinese markets and it has rallied a little bit. i would say that is probably before some of this would have been taking place. march 4 today and markets started rallying on march 1. it is not an uncommon theory that the chinese intervened in the stock market. here is your bloomberg business flash. nejra: goldman sachs and bank of america are planning job cuts to reign in costs. goldman will illuminate 5% of traders and -- will eliminate 5% of traders. meanwhile, bank of america will

dismiss 150 trading and investment bank employees next week. largeste, the world's luggage maker, has agreed to buy the company. it is the biggest acquisition for this company. the london stock exchange group has had four year total revenue jumped 78% to 2.9 billion pounds. the final dividend came in at 25.2 pence per share. their mergering with deutsche bank. hans: the german finance minister has used a gathering of u.k. business leaders to make his feelings clear about a possible brexit. schaeuble was asked about a possible brexit of the british

chambers of commerce >> in a london. >> what would germany do if the u.k. voted to leave the eu? >> we would cry. [laughter] [applause] hope we will not. it is the decision of the british people, of course. hans: staying with us on the robit and business fametheme, is here. written a couple of books in your spare time. one of them is "would they lie to us." is there a feeling with voters that elites are lying to them?

>> that is clearly a massive theme going on in global politics at the moment. you are seeing that in america. is, youre trump appeal can trust any of them. there is a big appeal to u.k. voters. they think, you can trust any of these people. why don't you pick the establishment by voting out -- kick the establishment by voting out? guy: it is hard to sell the eu in the u.k. in a positive way. is it just a battle of who can be the most negative? >> there is a lot of stuff floating around this morning. duncan smith is one of the leading cabinet outers. thes complaining about negative campaign. people on the inside of the campaign say, as you say, there is no emotional positive

argument for the eu that resonates in britain. people don't love the eu in britain. if you look at the polling, they think they are stuck with it. it is like plumbing. sometimes it stinks and you would rather not note too much about it, but you are glad it is there. to be fair, th e out campaign is capable of being quite negative. guy: how does the market filter out this noise? >> currently, the market is definitely pricing in the referendum. the uprising it in at approximately 7%. there is about 5%-6% in euro sterling. as we head to the referendum, i think sterling will trade with some downside buyers. vote,clear it with an in

there will be plenty of upsides in sterling. hans: earlier today you told me that you bumped into a pollster, which is my code for drinking with a pollster, but we won't get into that -- he said, there is a question of where people are on this. walk us through the polls. of a 7% risk premium -- that this make sense to you? >> i look at polls a lot. let's get technical for a second. there is all mine pulling. that shows -- there is on mine line polling. and then, there is telephone polling. the question is, which of these do you trust because they can't both be right? i put this to the pollster i was talking to and he said, i don't

know if i trust any of them. his feeling is the voters have not engaged with of the question yet. it is big in westminster and in the city, but it is not what anyone is talking about down at the pub. as we approach june 23, when to the voters start to engage? and when they do, where do you see them breaking? guy: you monitor the underside, which where they are breaking. it is the undecided, it is -- who is going to vote. how do you assess the likelihood that people are going to vote? this is a really tough question. guy: there is downside risk on the other side of this. how do i work out what that risk is on euro sterling.

we talked about the sterling bit. let's talk about the euro bit. >> ok, fine. we are trading higher than valuations would suggest in euro sterling. basically, when you look at short-term rate differentials, you can see that euro sterling has gone above that. intoou don't want to dig the trade right now because what is keeping euro sterling higher is the referendum risk premium. they expect us to get a lot of noise. i think we will stay close to that level until we reach the referendum. following that, i expect some downside. indeed.nk you very much next, from the u.k. politics

to the u.s. politics. donald trump and mitt romney hurl insults at one another, highlighting a growing rift in the republican party. ♪

>> i am a leader. i have always been a leader. >> the choice republican primary voters are making is, who can stand up to hillary clinton?

donald trump has written checks to hillary clinton 10 times and four of those checks were not to her senate campaign. it was to her presidential campaign. the numbers are there. are caste people who their vote in the republican primary caucus have voted against you. >> before it is all said and done, i will be the nominee. >> when you enter the arena, you enter a special circle and you want to respect the people you are in at the arena with. >> sometimes, he makes it a little bit hard. but i will support whoever is the republican nominee for president. hans: i used to cover u.s. politics. it is remarkable reading your phone in the morning just seeing what is being said in presidential debates. in some ways, it does get back to income and inequality, what

is happening with the lack of wage growth in the middle class. we have a chart that shows you where the wage growth has been on the upper end. you don't really see it filter through. that is telling the story. trump is getting about 1/3 of the votes every time in every contest. is, if we come down to two or three candidates, can he get about that 1/3? that is the numbers game i am looking at. hans: he is a little bit higher than 1/3 and that math matters. it's a trump has 46% of the delegates to have been awarded, when you get to the win or take all states, he is going to get bumps on those. that is why florida and ohio are so important.

guy: we will look forward to those. one more big super is coming up. let's talk about payrolls, hans. rich jones joins us from bloomberg first word. i want to take us to this chart here, which takes us back to 2006. you can see how much payrolls fell. then, we have a very steep pick up. that is solid, unspectacular -- but unspectacular. the moving average is actually starting to point down. probably ontoe more solid and unspectacular payroll gains. i think we're still looking at the first rate rise after the election. hans: are you worried that the fed is running out of ammo?

is the fed going to have enough ammo to respond? >> i suspect in terms of conventional monetary policy, they could do more qe, which is still in their armory. if things do slow down, they could resort to helicopter. it is not out of the question. guy: we are starting to see some of this which growth. >> again, it is solid, not spectacular. my colleague wrote a great piece this morning on the terminal. seeaid, we would probably the fed hiking more aggressively than it is, but the fed has international responsibilities and as a result, they look at the international headwinds. they say to themselves, we

cannot be aggressive because the world can't handle it. you 30 much. thank u 30 much.yo i urge everyone to check that out. ♪

guy: beijing is set to intervene and that stock market as the country gathers to map out its economic future. the rebound resumes. rally in europe and asian stocks and emerging-markets strengthen. oil touches an 8 week high. it's job stay in the usa. data mean for the fed in the markets? wel