citigroup and bank of east asia, worth more than a trillion dollars. more about that story and more, follow me on twitter, use #trendingbusiness. across the board, looking out for trade numbers. we are on standby. let's look at what is going on with the markets. shery ahn: lots of markets right now turning negative. pulling down a just stocks today. japan falling for a second consecutive day, down 1.8%. stronger yen is hitting the outlook for exporters, not to mention we have final gdp data showing that the economy theracted one by 1% in fourth quarter. also a rally we saw in chinese stocks, not being sustained. shanghai composite down 2.5%. tech shares are leading the

declines ahead of the data you mentioned. that is likely to show that exports declined. the hang seng is also down 1%, and kospi down as much, even with the korean won weakening. not even a rally in oil has helped energy producers maintain any gains. the japanese yen, it is strengthening for a second consecutive day, up half a percent. 113.5, approaching let me take you through -- let's top $40 a barrel. it is losing about 1% there. crude is also losing ground, still about $37 a barrel. rishaad: breaking news at the

moment. needs 3 billion yuan in financing. about $460 million. this is to finance the electric car unit. that would, head of an ipo. it would do this by selling shares in the unit on the shanghai exchange. by the parentd .ompany, basic -- baic the company seeks 3 billion yuan in financing to get that electric car. soon.etails on that any minute now, we are also getting other new set of china. we are hoping to get the latest caps on on the economic health and we know that the weaker yuan has not been helping china's export competitiveness. at least, not yet.

it has dropped the most in nearly a year. stephen engle has more on that. reporter: i'm looking at the bloomberg terminal. the numbers are expected to cross anytime out of beijing. statistics bureau should drop them. exports last month fell the most in nearly a year. there definitely are seasonal distortions because of the lunar new year holiday, as there always are. might be the worst in the median forecast. the median estimate, from 30 economist is for exports in february, falling 14 and a half percent -- 14.5%. we get a second figure for the yuan terms. some of those numbers are a little bit skewed. three out of the four top ring economist -- top ranked economists expect the figures to be even worse.

drop of thes the 20%. goldman sachs, jp morgan, they all asked at least a 19% drop in exports year over year in february. it could be worse than expected. this would mark the eighth consecutive month of export declines. for the most part, imports have stared even worse. they have fallen for 15 consecutive months. the median is to follow 12%. -- file 12%. what does that mean for the trade balance? the worsening export scenario we are expecting, and slightly improving import picture, and the surplus in january, it is toected to have shrunk around $51 billion in february. i'm sitting here waiting for the numbers. back to you. rishaad: shares of fortis you metals, we look at those -- metals, we take a

look at that. paul allen, let's look at what is going on here. memorandum will understand -- allow them to buy see fit, and they proposes a number of joint ventures with the two companies to blend iron ore products to send to china. that lending would be enormously beneficial, both in terms of getting rid of the loader -- lower grade oils, and improving margins. it still has to be approved by the boards of both companies. they are obviously benefiting from the huge spike we saw in iron ore prices overnight, up 19%. scue went up 24% on monday. whilepike in prices,

welcome, is not entirely necessary to their survival. here is what the ceo had to say on bloomberg tv a little earlier today. >> i think the iron ore price run, and certainly our increase in prices, on the back of the iron ore price, we have very heavily leveraged to upside and iron ore price. are one of the lowest cost producers in the market. we had no further cash flow. we had very low sustaining capital line leave required -- required. therefore, we generate very large amounts of cash. we see shares of this morning by 7%, given a lot of the gains on monday. a couple of things happening. a lot of commentators say it has all the elements of a short squeeze, considering iron nor is their only product. but also, in the last while we

have seen tweets coming out from some commentators, calling on the regulator to look into their big price move yesterday. they say it is rather curious that shares said -- should accelerate so swiftly before the announcement made this morning. we had a more -- to look at it more in detail, tweets me and use #trending business. now we take a look at the credit card business in china. hsbc is going solo in china, winning approval to start a credit card business. that came as hsbc and it was so joining citigroup and bank of east asia as the only foreign card issuers in china. it is not known when the approval was given, nor are there the city details on how it will be rolled out.

-- specific details on how it will be rolled out. an independent card unit on the mainland would include -- going to wall street, the bonus of their percent last year, the biggest decline since 2011. average bonus in 2015 was $146,200. payoffswere down, as sold by $1.7 billion. total is down 6% from one year early -- earlier. that is despite more than 4000 new jobs, and profit rising at six largest banks. bonuses could mean that you can -- new york city could

see lower tax revenue this year. three years on, shinzo abe's strategy is being questioned. abenomics received an average score of 4.6 out of 10 for overall effectiveness. the economy fell into recession in 2014, swinging between growth and contraction last year. abenomics is a three-pronged approach, including aggressive monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. rishaad: on our website, we are looking at how a handwritten note from president xi jinping started a meltdown that wiped three quarters of a trillion dollars of chinese stocks since july. have a look at it. coming up, freezing funds heading to mumbai. billionaire may

not get money. china has room to ease as they look to boost the economy. when "trending business," returns. ♪

rishaad: not to shanghai. numbers are plunging out of latest trade numbers. the volatility continuing when it comes to the index is -- indices in chinese shares. let's look at the trade numbers. someone fromg to jp morgan. what does this tell us about china and the global economy? guest: it has been pretty volatile, particularly during the chinese new year. rishaad: this is every year. guest: yes, every year.

if you look in the fourth quarter, the global economy does not perform very well. u.s. economy grows only 1%. why we see january data as pretty disappointing. if you look at recent policy measures, china has been emphasizing more on the domestic front, rather than relying on external demand. as you have a rebalancing taking place, it doesn't really reflect what's going on on the import side anyway, whether it will be more service-oriented. guest: if you look at the impulse side, obviously it is affecting -- domestic demand is pretty weak. that is in the background of the rebalancing of industries. external demand is more or less on the soft side. the global trade never goes back to the level we saw before the crisis. rishaad: tell me something. where do we go with monetary policy? told it actually even work

get people out there, spending more money and becoming more vibrant consumers? guest: two interesting points. the first point, highlighted by the governor in his speech, he [indiscernible] look at npd reports, the most interesting point on the policy target, is the tss targets, of 13%, which is a pretty decent number. this year, credit growth will pick up. that means easy -- rishaad: is that a good thing? term, theyhe near will use macro policy to stabilize growth.

series -- series treatment of the nonperforming bankruptcy, that means high credit growth will cause that for higher ups. rishaad: but that is the problem. authorities kicking the can down the road? guest: it is definitely not over. we don't see that the problem will blow up near term, but obviously, the financial risk, particularly corporate debt, beenissue has not seriously addressed. rishaad: and it was not addressed at all over the weekend. guest: they were stopping the zombie company phenomena, but from it financial perspective,

we need to not only rely on consolidation. capital output is the biggest problem china faces right now. do you buy into that? guest: we have the reserve number yesterday. from that report, we kept the flow, seems to calm down a little bit in february. shorter, butay is also if you look at outflow per day, the pace has slowed down. this is based on the background. c ny has been pretty stable. the depreciated against the u.s. dollar in fenway. that's an important reason. --shouldn't say february is as good news that we are getting better. i think they're still big uncertainty, and the government still needs to view the credibility of the new regime.

they still need to stick to that regime. but there are also people getting their money out, instead of the controls being in place. obviously, so far the corporate adjustment is the most important factor. rishaad: is that because people are having to pay down dollar dominations? guest: yes, chinese companies paying down foreign debt and building effective policies. this is not necessarily a bad thing. what we truly worry about is how sultry behavior -- household behavior. this component has been picking up in the last two quarters. what is truly important, whether the government can stabilize and re-anchor the household currency expectation, and stabilize the capital flow from the household sector. great talking to you.

the numbers don't has not come out. we are looking for trade numbers out of china. these are the stories making headlines around the world today. north korea has repeated it threats against its enemies, warning of a preemptive nuclear strike of justice. this is in reaction to the latest u.s. korean war game. the national defense commission talked of targeting in the south, and against american bases in the pacific, and even on the u.s. mainland the "our enemiesid, are working with bloodshot eyes to infringe upon the dignity and vital rights of north korea." theyean union leaders say have the basis for a breakthrough on middle eastern refugees. after late-night talks with turkey, anglo american the -- merkelmerican -- angela

described it. the talks hit a bump when turkey demanded fresh concessions as the price for accepting more buy goods. they want more than $3 billion in aid by 2018, twice what has already been agreed on. relatives of passengers on the missing malaysia airlines wayne have filed suit against the carrier in beijing. the action comes on a second anniversary of the jets disappearance, and targets boeing and the engine maker, rolls-royce. have0 was thought to disappeared over the indian ocean. despite a widespread search, little has been found. one piece of debris washed up on reunion island, and two more are being assessed. powered by over 2400 journalists, this is bloomberg news. i'm zeb eckert. coming up, malaysia's prime minister of training under -- remaining under pressure to quit. but he is finding allies online. that is a little later on.

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rishaad: this is "trending business." i'm rishaad salamat. the market turmoil in china is prompting investors to look elsewhere, like at the east asia, to reverse the 21% stock slump last year. let's go over to haslinda amin in singapore. where is the money going? on a day like today, we are seeing another sinking set of chinese stocks. where do the investors actually find respite? -- you canou can't call it a revolving door. indonesia and thailand, back in favor after falling out of favor last year. two reasons. rove is better than the rest of the region, and the currency is pretty stable for now. that enough reasons for investors when china and japan are faltering.

take a look. dollars20 million u.s. going into indonesian stocks. almost $170 million into thai equities. there are only three asian companies posting net inflows. governments in both countries are doing pretty well. there are boosting spending, pushing for infrastructure, helping everyone from small farmers to businesses. let's take a look at the benchmarks. svt up more than 8%. in, up 17% from the low september, on the brink of climbing out of a failed market. they are decoupling, breaking the trend elsewhere. extent is thatt part of the world insulated from the terminal we had been seeing -- turmoil we have been seeing elsewhere? haslinda: we have to be realistic. it is not large enough to be isolated and insulated from what is at inc. in the rest of the region -- happening for the rest

of the region. regionuntries in the continue to face their own color abilities like badlands, leveraged households. when you take a look at valuations, they are red-hot. tradingook at the jci, at 26 times reported earnings. more than twice the limit -- levels of the asia index. that is the biggest premium since 2002. thai stocks, the most expensive in eight months. when you speak to investors like mark mobius, they have a note of caution. he says invest in bullishness may be overdone. while there is no route in the markets, they are still risks. rishaad: thank you. let's look at the embattled malaysian prime minister. he is trending on social media. he continues to fight a campaign for him to quit.

let's look at what's going on. probably the biggest campaign since he came to power, about seven years ago. the question still lingering million, in his personal account. money he says was a donation from the saudi royal family. he has repeatedly denied wrongdoing. the former malaysian prime minister is trying to oust him, raising a public camming -- campaign to push him out. there are supporters, including other ministers. this was tweeted by a malaysian prime minister for the state of -for a state near singapore. this has been picked up on social media, and has spread very quickly, including by other politicians.

they have been personalizing them to fit whatever they wanted to say. they also went on to say criticism is fine, but don't damage the country. we are all malaysians. supporters, there are quite a few. there are others who agree. ag was quickly picked up and turned around. something, you have to earn tag it., not hash the battle is continuing to be waged on social media. rishaad: going over to this scene at the moment, the chinese foreign minister eking in in beijing.peaking he's talking about what is going on on the aryan peninsula. he says china will not allow instability, saying they face an

explicit situation in that part of the world. he is addressing these concerns, that many people have, days after strengthening sanctions against the north korean regime. details coming up later in the show. ♪

♪ now a look at the top stories. and japan, 1.1 contraction in the fourth quarter. earlylian shares raising gain after record iron ore prices. shares in shanghai, almost 3% after the latest chinese trade data. joint venture has been agreed, after a year of talks,

offering a minority stake in fortescue. they say it is not a precursor to a formal takeover. hsbc going solo in china, winning approval to start a credit card business in a market. they are joining citigroup and bank of east asia as the only foreign card issuers in china. it is unknown when the approval of given, nor are there any specific details on how it was -- it is going to be rolled out. let's look at the markets. given that we can get data out of china showing that exports are likely in decline, let's get a check of the currencies in play. the australian dollar is right now filing. -- falling. biggesta, china is its

trading partner. the aussie dollar has been climbing for the last seven sessions. it is currently down 6/10 of a percent. let's take a look at the korean won. korea is one of the world's biggest exporters to china. it is also beginning, 4/10 of a percent, but that is after rallying for seven consecutive sessions. what is interesting is that it offers higher yields than other currencies, so analysts are saying that reserve managers will be buying korean debt, and that will help support the country's currency. it is currently trading at 1206.41. we have the national people's congress in china going on, with leaders saying they will keep housing purchase restrictions in place.

real estate now falling more than 5%, despite february contract sales rising 89% on year. petro china falling 1.7%. we hear from an official saying type -- china national petroleum 2016 traffic by 26%, and crude output by 3%. --send down back to you. rishaad: more from the china foreign minister, speaking on the sidelines from his national people's congress in beijing. this is the scene at the moment as he talks about what has been going on in the south china sea, saying china was not the first of the weapons there, and they cannot be accused of military thing that part of the world. this is coming out of the foreign minister. freedom of navigation isn't licensed to do whatever you want, that is what of the things

he has been saying. they are also in the process of setting up a hotline to deal with the south china sea tensions. that is with a variety of nations, with conflicting claims on various islands in the south china sea. on top of that, we had the united states of late, also doing rattling there. -- northave the north korean peninsula, korean peninsula addressing tensions as well. we talked about sanctions as strengthening sanctions against the north koreans. let's have a look at what else is happening. one of our top stories today concerns iron ore, with this huge rally taking place. we now have a 50% jump since mid-january. that is against the banks slumping.

what is pushing of demand here at the moment, and the price? >> is short squeezing. the other reason is improving demand from steel. steel prices have increased since the beginning of the year. part of the reason is that market expectation of a strong season -- rishaad: that is fundamental. are we seeing improvement when it comes to demand? >> actually, not yet. for steel demand, we think it is only temporary. if we look at all these government projects, the demand has not translated into metals yet. the for supplyn cuts for iron ore miners. balance wise, we don't think iron ore price hike would continue, but more for the market movement. rishaad: but the move is so quick, that quite often when you have a move, it is too far too

fast. is that the feeling you are getting? >> yes, if we look at bloomberg consensus. crv, --ook at that cerv, the forward curve. but we would say it is more market-driven. rishaad: let's take a look at the other one. there is talk there could be a scue, who onlyorte produces iron ore. >> that could help with these two companies selling to china, especially. the iron ore grade for that company is about 58. the celtic china has about 66%. of this grade of iron ore, they can china

because they are the largest market. it could help their customers also to cut working capital buying iron ore. that would be the short-term benefit for the market. rishaad: thank you very much. we are going to stay with commodities here. making headlines, of course. all coming against the chinese willingness to support the economies. across the board, a record jump for iron ore. also, an impressive rise for gold. crude is back above $40 a barrel. can it last? is quite impressive, this optimism among investors about the chinese markets, the chinese housing market in particular. that is what has been driving iron ore, as well as the other base metals and industrial metals. we had these comments from the chinese government on monday, that they are willing to

stimulate the economy. thatommodities rebound we have seen it has been stunning. we are looking at the chart of iron ore prices, as well as copper. in the past day or so, we have seen a spike in iron ore. iron ore rising to the most on record, in fact. that move was just yesterday. the biggest surge it has ever seen, on the expectation that chinese demand will return to earlier levels. copper, though, is taking a bit of a downward spiral. it has not held up with what we are seeing in iron ore. that is curious, given the fact that both are key-based industrial metals here. we will watch that very closely. chart to show you another that our bloomberg news colleagues put together. this takes a closer look at the demand out there right now, in the chinese housing market. as we take a look at real estate investment, the white line here,

as well as iron ore prices, there is an interesting correlation going over the years from now until 2016. back to you for the breaking news. rishaad: we have breaking news. the first indications of these trade figures we have been waiting for. numbers coming out of the stats offices in beijing. look at the yuan numbers. stephen engle has the latest. us,ill have them for imminently. we should get an idea of what is happening export wife, import wise, and domestically, and perhaps paint a picture of the global economy as well. experts on the way, down. reporter: we are getting the you one figures right now. we'll cut dollar figures in a minute. in yuan terms, exports year over year, falling 20.6%. we are expecting 11.3% down.

is previous month in january 6.6%. this is quite a significant drop. there are significant -- seasonal distortions because of the lunar near, but this is a significant risk. imports, better than expected, down 8%. we were expecting 11.7%. january was 14.4%. imports, little better, but exports are worse, 20.6% down. terms.re in yuan we will get the dollar terms later. theeparated it because of distortions over the last year after the revaluation -- devaluation in august. that leaves the trade balance more narrow. in january, it was a record high trade surplus of 406.2 billion yuan. that has been whittled down, because of the drop in exports and improvement in imports. billion.ped to 209.5

almost cut in half, the trade surplus. the headline in yuan terms, year-over-year, exports down 20.6%. for china. back to you. thank you. stephen engle looking at the exports and imports on the way down in china. let's look at the other stories we are following. softbank making headlines, for its overseas operations, managing $81 billion in investments. former google executive will head of international operations. this includes stakes in alibaba as well as telecoms operators. --en mile, another alibaba's finance affiliate is said to be seeking evaluation of about $60 billion.

set to close a second round of financing in the middle of next month. attracted ar -- potential investor, although they still need approval. china's biggest online payment service, controls the biggest money market fund. shifting away from gambling to more family-friendly theme parks. the chairman says the next phase macau projectlion will include an avatar like project. toy are looking for ways stand out. casino operator readers are changing strategies. -- operators are changing strategies. macau, you go to experience an array of facilities. the goal of becoming a world-class tourism hub is in line with government policies. rishaad: back to commodities

after the break. gold on the way up. some say it will not continue. we take a look at that, and the other opportunities. coming up next, on "trending business." ♪

zeb: we have breaking news from china. dollar figures from exports and imports and the trade balance, down. this is a significantly large number. down 25.4%. exports in february, year-over-year. there are seasonal distortions, but this is down below expectations. 25 point 4% down in february exports, year-over-year in dollar terms. the previous month was in january, down 11.2%. that is almost double down in february. imports, also a little bit worse than expected, but not as bad as

exports. imports down 13.8%. we were expecting 12%. what this has done has narrowed the trade surplus we saw, the trade gap in january was a 51 -- $63.3 billion in january. to $32.6arrowed down billion. exports are worse, imports are slightly better, even though they are a little bit down as well. change a significant from what we were expecting. we were expecting a surplus of at 32.59on, coming in billion dollars. in dollar terms, we are seeing exports really fall, down 25.4% year-over-year in february. rishaad: thank you for that, stephen.

imports also significantly low. we had been looking at all this from the prison of what has been happening in commodities as well. let's bring in the executive director for commodities. is there any read through from the commodity side of things here? what the your view on recent rally that we have seen with many of these, is it going to be undercut by this data? isst: certainly, the data much weaker than people expected. i think on the export side in particular, people may take this as notice that perhaps growth is adding a little bit in some of the developed markets. but that is a little bit contrary to what we have seen, particularly from the u.s. recent days. the payroll number was very strong. the crosscurrents in current

markets are very intense. we are seeing, clearly, gold is rallying, as well as iron ore last night. it was simply phenomenal. risk is coming back on. emerging market equities are up. the u.s. dollar has been trading a little weaker.i think that is the basis of the story. rishaad: you can't paint them all with one broadbrush. gold and oil has been inching up, whereas the iron ore rally was unprecedented. when you have a move that there, obviously, my question is -- is it too far too fast? i look at gold and iron --, and iron ore overnight the rally is there to be sold. where the entry point is to selling something like this, i would get in the way right now. certainly there is a strange pattern at the moment.

-- gold inticular, particular, one of the. decatur's has been will the iney markets bring forward 2016. we have seen in recent days continued signs of u.s. money markets ringing the rate hike forward -- bringing the rate hike forward, which for us, is one of the signals to sell gold. of course, investor demand has been very strong. the opportunity cost of gold has in falling -- been falling. or ines go further down, some cases, go into the negatives, the opportunity cost of gold goes along with it. some investors have been buying emerging-market equities at the same time as buying gold, as an insurance mechanism. investment demand has been very strong. we expect that to plateau in coming weeks. rishaad: how much of it is

driven by physical demand, as opposed to other forms of gold in the form of eds and the like? rally fundamentally, the has been a reversal of some of the ets outflows we have seen over the last couple of years. the speculation sides have also added in, cut shorts, added long positions. on the positioning side from the investment flows, everybody is rebalanced, if not very long. on the physical demand side, india had a very strong import month in january. however, some of the budget three measures that came out -- budgetary measures that came out the other day are quite negative for gold. on the china side, we saw a very sharp fall off in gold demand, as that brought forward chinese spending in december began to

roll off. overall, the margins, or the relative spreads between local prices for gold and the international price of gold have now slipped into the negatives, indicating consumer demand is quite weak. nonetheless, investment flows is driving at the moment. rishaad: let's quickly have a look at oil. we talked about this agreement, getting back on the table between russia and ok -- opec. we are getting ahead of ourselves, given the supply glut. a freeze just means we are producing the same we were in january, which is one of the reasons why we have a glut in the first place. agree withmpletely your statement. i guess when we think about oil, we cast our minds back to 2015, when we had a very strong rally in quarter two. all this tends to do is kick the adjustment down the road. kicked's situation, it

the adjustment down the road for 12 months. we still need to cut supply of oil, and we still have an oversupply of oil in the market. there is somewhere between 1.5 million barrels a day. so if a production freeze in -- going forward, as u.s. production rose forward even more, we expect some of the default will become more evident in the shale oil sector in the u.s., and we are starting to see oil production roll over in the u.s. in absolute terms. we do see rebalancing, still by the end of the year. but what is happening right now may delay the rebalancing. rishaad: thank you so much. some more breaking news now, concerning and ask exldman sachs banker --

goldman sachs banker. he is being subpoenaed, in connection to the malaysia state fun. we'll have details as we get more. this is what we had for at the moment, the subpoena. --ing up, settlement between a settlement halted at a tribunal in india. details from mumbai. ♪

rishaad: you are back with "trending business." a tribunal in india blocking a $75 million settlement. the payment was agreed after he was ousted last month. let's get details. not a very good day. what's going on? it has been a bit of a cat and mouse game between one of the regulators in india, when he announced, after months, that he would finally step down from the chairman chip of the ub group. to do soen refusing for a while, in it change for a . -- settlement a tribunal temporarily halted the settlement. a court ruled in favor for a

group of creditor banks, saying -- they argued they had the first right to the exit payment of $75 million from the . three years ago he had $1.4 billion in debt. he is in talks with groups in 17 banks for a one-time settlement, offering that he had no plans to run away from the country and creditors. this is despite announcing plans that he was relocating to the u.k. considerable troubles also mounting as far as a money laundering case. -- directorate that is responsible for ensuring economic laws are alleging that he had sent money from his company to an account abroad, alleging that was money that he borrowed from banks for use of

shares in india. , this isnals position the largest chunk of the outstanding dues by kingfisher airlines. that is going to be something we will watch for. back to you. rishaad: recapping breaking news -- he isdman sachs being subpoenaed. a wide-ranging probe, he was apparently issued a subpoena in late february according to three people who are familiar. we will have more on this coming up in the next hour. edge" next. ♪

>> from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. charlie: we have the president of uber technology. the transportation and logistics unicorn many investors consider more valuable than ford motor company and fedex. it is valued at $62.5 billion. it has expanded to ride-sharing. a class action lawsuit over the