>> welcome to the best of "with all due respect." another big week for the presidential campaigns. donald trump won by a lot in michigan, bernie sanders won by a little, still enough to sting the hillary clinton campaign. we begin by dissecting that victory. how on earth did sanders pull this off? >> particularly, trade is an issue that has more residents in michigan than maybe any other state. they do not like clinton's position on trade deals.

that allowed him to get a huge comeback win and a huge symbolic win, and to return from the dead. >> i want to show what the demographic breakdown of the vote was. take a look at the first breakdown between white and black voters. sanders beats clinton 56/42. importantly in the black vote, you have sanders getting 28% of the black vote in michigan, way more than he has gotten anywhere else in the country. if you look closer, white women and black women, clinton is dominating with black women. but with white women, which should be in the heart of clinton's constituency, bernie

sanders beats her. if he gets a healthy amount of african-americans and white women, he can win more states. >> he put together a coalition of the people he had already been attracting but also a much higher percentage of the african-american vote. it does suggest that that wind, if he can keep it up, is not a fluke. when the clintons say he won because he targeted the state, i'm not sure that is an effective ways of spin. >> the sanders campaign going around saying that hillary is a regional candidate. she cannot win out of the south. sanders obviously won in new hampshire. winning this state, it is a claim they are making, but it is there.

>> mississippi also gave her the bigger delegate haul of the evening. while michigan may have given sanders some needed momentum, he still has a lot of ground to make up. next tuesday, five states voting on march 15. the polling shows that clinton has a big lead in all of them right now. john, five big contests next week, a few more coming down the road. where is sanders likely to win, if he can keep his momentum going? john: sanders will try to run the same playbook as he did in michigan and ohio. he could be very competitive there. they are favorable on missouri. the other states, not so much. given what donald trump

accomplished last night, what is the most plausible scenario of the stop trump movement? mark: they have to hone down what they are going after on. the opposition research, every day our inboxes are filled with stuff like that. something he said on tour, trump stinks. while they did some experimentation in idaho, they have to prove that attribution will lead to hurting trump. they have not done that. i will say, it starts with case -- kasich winning ohio. they have to keep his delegate totals down. even if he wins three of 5, 4 of five, even five of five, but he is not on a glide path to a majority. john: it is possible to give the

stop trump movement going, as ich wins ohio and somebody else wins another one. it will be on life support. somehow, marco rubio pulling off a lazarus here in florida would be a big deal. but i think the one thing that you said that i agree with, the amount of money spent on any advertising is meaningless if there is not a message that resonates. candidates picking up and riding it. where is the polling that is informing the advertising? right now there is no research underneath it. rubio has gone from being anti-donald trump now gone back to his message. it's a problem. only the candidates can stop trump. the most plausible movement right now is potentially kasich and rubio losing their home states and ted cruz getting him one-on-one.

if you look at the public polling, ted cruz beat trump head-to-head. maybe that would not happen in reality, but there is not one poll that shows trump beats ted cruz. john: i'm looking at all those states, the few places where you can imagine ted cruz winning, but you're getting to places like wisconsin, new york, pennsylvania, iowa, those are not ted cruz country. mark: carly fiorina endorsed ted cruz. lindsey graham may be. he has a chance to consolidate the party behind him. john: may be a long shot but the most likely right now. there was more reporting today, marco rubio and his team holding some conversations today, some floating the thought about whether he should get out of the race before florida. the campaign denies those reports but that has not stopped

the donors and strategists from other campaigns of speculating on the subject. according to a new poll, donald trump leads in florida with 45%. rubio is way back with 22, down six points from last month. ted cruz with 18. if rubio, a big if, decides he cannot go on, does not want to get bludgeoned in his home state, what then? mark: if trump gets the 45 in the state, nobody will be him. unless rubio has a spurt, does well in the debate tomorrow night, somehow comes back, i believe if he got out, ted cruz would have a better chance of effectively stopping donald trump one-on-one. i think ted cruz has a better chance of stopping trump in this state than rubio.

john: i imagine all of the rubio vote going to kasich. as hobbled as rubio is coming he has a better chance of beating trump than rubio -- ted cruz ever will. mark: he can go on the air anti-to take trumpet out on all of the liberal stuff. this is republicans only, this a conservative older electorate. , trump is the odds on favorite. all i'm saying is i think cruz has a better chance. john: i wonder how many florida republicans are thinking around saying, i wish jeb bush was still in the race. i bet there are a lot of established republicans thinking, we would have been better off. coming up, florida and three other states voting next week. we ask the former chairman of the republican party in florida where the sun will be shining.

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>> joining me from tallahassee, florida is the former jeb bush campaign supporter and former chairman of the florida republican party. your candidate is out of the race, you have known marco rubio a long time. why are you not a public backer of marco rubio? >> i am in about the third or fourth stage of the grieving process. what is going on seems to be a two-way race between ted cruz and donald trump.

if we look at the early exit polls today, that seems to be reflected of what is happening in michigan and mississippi. i am not in the mood to get involved, i have not seen a persuasive case to get involved. destiny looks like a two person race. depending on what happens on the 15th, i don't know if they can keep donald trump from getting to 1237. i think ted cruz has a chance, i don't think anyone else has a chance. i think it is no better than 50/50 that anyone can stop donald trump from getting the nomination at this point. mark: has anyone asked for your support since jeb bush got out of the race? >> folks have been kind enough to reach out. i care for marco rubio. i think of the four candidates running, he is my favorite, with kasich in a close second. looking at the state of affairs,

i am ready to not get involved in this and see if i can be one of those folks that puts in the effort to reunite the party so we can avoid a disaster in november. mark: who is your eference between trump and cruz? >> certainly will be supporting ted cruz if it is down to those two. mark: let me stop you there. if you favor ted cruz and you are concerned trump will get the nomination by steamrolling quickly, why not do everything you can to get marco rubio in down into slow trump florida? >> when you support somebody, it should not be for strategy, but for what you think is best for you to do. right now, i tnk what is best for me to do is to do what i can, to bring party together. you cannot ignore donald trump. whether he gets to 1237 or not, he will be a major forcen the party.

either ted cruz and donald trump will find a way to coexist, donald trump will be so close to the finish line that he cannot ich or rubio on his ticket, or pick somebody else, or ted cruz could do the same. our best bet is to see how he can be the best ticket he can be to defeat hillary clinton, rather than taking sides in the primary. what i need to do is figure out how i can put in my two cents and make sure a ticket leaves out of cleveland that can compete with hillary clinton. mark: marco rubio says he will when the florida primary, is he? >> i hope he does for all of the reasons we talked about. he seems to be in the single digits with mississippi. a heck of ahave

debate on thursday in order to copy should. -- accomplished that. mark: i am still confused, i know that you said you should not vote for strategic purposes, but marco rubio is not a stranger. he needs all the help he can get to in the primary and keep his candidacy alive. why wouldn't you and jim bush do everything you can to help him? >> we are where we are for all the reasons i told you. i believe you get involved in supporting a second candidate if you think he can ride that wave all the way to cleveland. at this point in time, a case has not been made that that is a long-term -- mark: you think he has 0% chance of being the nominee? >> at this point, yes. even if he wins florida, he has a chance to go to an open convention and be a player, but i don't see either kasich or rubio being the nominee of the

party. i think the nominee will be donald trump or ted cruz. mark: from the general election in florida, trump versus clinton. >> i would say trump. two words on that, supreme court. mark: so you think he would be the favorite to win the electoral college? >> i think so, if he has the right ticket, if he has the right strategy. if he continues to be an outlier, he will put the race at risk. if he gets smart in the general election, he can beat hillary clinton, without a doubt. mark: what would it take for you to endorse donald trump? >> a lot. you have seen many candidates go from a primary race to the general race and become a different candidate, become a more acceptable candidate to america's mainstream. you do that by picking the right vice presidential nominee, by picking the right team to start helping you begin to transition.

we will see what he has to say. if he moderates his point of view, i will support him. mark: who surprised you more in their reaction to donald trump in the last few weeks, chris christie or mitt romney? >> mitt romney. mark: when we have you back, we will have you explain the answer to us. appreciate the honesty as always. john: next, our conversation with hillary clinton's national political adviser. we talk about the implications of her candidate losing in michigan. ♪

mark: final hours before the big democratic debate in miami. we bring in hillary clinton's national pluto -- political director. thanks for coming back. hillary clinton lost the michigan primary because -- >> it was a close race, always was going to be a close race. we have to do our job to earn every vote. mark: i will ask you again, hillary clinton lost the michigan primary because -- >> i don't have an answer for you. we are still digesting the information. we have to get out there and invest, be there, make sure we are talking about jobs earlier, make sure that people know exactly where we are on manufacturing jobs. we came in on friday to get our message. maybe we could have done it earlier. mark: is it possible there is some skepticism in that state regarding who is a bigger

opponent of international trade deals, bernie sanders and hillary clinton, given her next xed history and his consistent history? >> i think you heard that point made in the debate. here is why i'm opposed to tpp. then we talked about her pro-jobs message. i think that will be a difference that you continue to hear from us on both sides of the coin. i think that's an important aspect as we go into these next states. john: let me ask you two demographic questions. how do you explain a losing white women to bernie sanders, if you are hillary clinton? >> i think we have to talk about what kind of jobs we are going to create. in general, that is a midwest message. we have not hit that as hard as we could. in light of the breaking barriers message, it's important that we talk about what her jobs

plan is. when you compare the two, it is different. she does think through innovation and the foundation of our economy, and we will talk more about that. mark: in south carolina, she got 90% of the african-american vote. last night, sanders won a third of the black vote in michigan. what accounts for the disparity, and how does that worry you? >> we have to make sure that everyone knows the primary is happening. that is a little different with michigan. 2008, michigan played a role. we have talk about getting out the vote and about the importance of jobs in every community. what we saw in michigan is how disappointed people are about the manufacturing industry, that they need a president that will bring those jobs back. we are going to make sure that we are loud and clear about that piece of it. mark: going back to the first question, it sounds like you

said you were not in the state enough and there was a failure of messaging. >> i think we have to talk more about her jobs plan and we did that on friday. i think you'll start to see more of that and it's important that we have that plan out there. mark: given senator sanders victory last night, the amount of money he has, do you assume this will be a competitive contest into the spring? > absolutely. mark: donald trump could on tuesday effectively end his nomination fight. if he wins all five, do you think he would be a de facto nominee? >> i think you have people who are really engaged in staying in the race. mark: i know it is not your party but -- explain how that would happen. >> people stay in the race. i think you could see kasich, cruz stay in the race.

mark: i will bet you a shake shack burger that if rubio and kasich do not win, they get out. >> cruz? mark: is senator sanders running as good or better a campaign as you are? >> i think we are running a great campaign. >> better than him? >> yes. when you look at who we are bringing together, we will continue to grow our vote within the different demographics, including the young vote, including making sure that the women stay on board. when you look at the coalition of the democratic party and you size that up because what is happening on the republican side, the victory in the general is making sure that we still have the biggest tent. john: one of the things i am

struck by, i went to two sanders events where tre are over 10,000 people. with all due respect, that is more than hillary clinton sees. what accounts for -- even as the media is telling democratic voters, it is over, the delegate lead is insurmountable -- why does sanders continued to get that sort of passion? >> we are going to make sure that we are going to some of the same places in terms of universities and colleges, where there are a lot of people. i cannot account for what he is doing. i can make sure that we are getting our message out there. it is important that we talk about when she will do to make sure that people have good, paying jobs, and particularly the younger voters, we have to talk not just about jobs but also about college affordability. mark: as bernie sanders generally been a friend to the u.s. auto industry?

>> i think there is a truth, and i worked for the senator in michigan for a long time. at that moment, when you need to take a hard vote to save the auto industry, it matters. mark: has he been a friend and ally? >> he was not there at the key moment, and i think that says a lot. mark: up next, my conversation about donald trump's connection to a program where investors get visas in return for money, many of them coming from china. ♪

>> the greatest abuse of a country i have seen financially, china. what they have done to us is the greatest single theft in the world. they have taken our jobs, our

money, everything. we are bringing our jobs back. mark: that was from last month, donald trump ripping on one of his favorite targets, but it turns out a trump tower in new jersey is being funded largely by the government program that allows foreign investors mostly from china to skip ahead in the immigration line a get a visa in return for investments. totally legal, but if you spend your days and nights railing against china, it could be a problem. joining us now for the details is our investigative reporter. explain this visa program called eb5 and how it works. >> if you have half $1 million and you are seeking a green card, the u.s. has a program where, for qualified development projects, if you are willing to put a half million dollars into the project, you can get a

two-year visa, and if everything works out in the project, you will get what amounts to permanent residency for you and your family. what has happened, the program has been around for about 25 years but has really started to take off in the last five or six years. developers love it because it has turned into basically a cheap form of financing for high-end real estate development. the folks that want the visas that are putting up half $1 million are not that interested in getting a return, they just want the green card. so what has happened the last few years, the government has given out tens of thousands of visas through this program, and in the last few years, is over two people from china. last year, they gave out 10,000 pieces, and 85% were from china.

mark: so this program is being used in connection with a trump project in jersey. tell us about the project and the extent to which this program is being used for. >> a developer licensed the trump name and blt a high-rise luxury condominium development called trump plaza residents, right on the water. incredible views of lower manhattan. two years ago, jerod kushner, who is married to donald trump's daughter ivanka, announced that they would be building a sister project, a nearly identical tower that will be luxury rentals. it would be called trump the street. for the last 20 years, donald trump has built very few buildings. he has built some, but his business is really licensing his name to othebusiness developers. this is some version of that. we don't know the financial arrangement between him and his son-in-law, but he is using the trump name on the building that he is building.

isuarter of the financing coming from the eb5 program. in other words, the team went out and found 100 people, i believe entirely from china, who each put in half $1 million, provided the loans to build the building. mark: a quarter of the financing of the building. given the politics of it, why take the money from china, is this the only place where this project can find enough investment to build? >> i think one of the reasons the program is very popular is because it is basically free money. the investors do not really want a return on their investment, they want the green card. where you may have to borrow from a bank 6% or 10%, with these investors, you can give them no return. so it is like getting a quarter of your financing with no return. the reason the program is of

interest, the department of homeland security and gao have raised concerns about the inadequacy of the screening process, figuring out where the money is from. they are concerned the program enables money and laundering and could jeopardize national security. two years ago, there was a memo that charles grassley read on the floor of the senate raising these very questions. the gao followed up months ago with similar questions. mark: we said in the beginning there is nothing illegal about the program, and all the optics might be bad, trump could argue that this is just good business. he is getting into a project with his son-in-law that does not require much from them and does not require the same rate of return. >> that is true but he is raising money from a government program which all of government overseers see as troubled and could enable a lot of dirty money coming into the country.

more due diligence. mark: could be. more due diligence. john: coming up, we check in with tim miller on his efforts to keep the republican nomination away from donald trump. ♪

john: if anyone is capable of stopping trump, perhaps it is our next guest, the former communications director for jeb bush, tim miller. good to see you. an important goal by yours and many others. tell me, right now, what are you

doing today that is different from what you are doing yesterday to stop trump? >> we have expanded the number of states we are in. we have some new ads going up in ohio. it has been reported that everything he is focusing on is outsourcing, the body wash, everything, all of it made in bangladesh, none of it made in ohio. letterman is featured in this ad. people should watch the video. he made the point in a comedic way. we are up there in ohio on outsourcing. we are also in missouri which is , an important state next tuesday. we are talking about the testimonials of the trump university students that have been defrauded by donald trump, who pay $15,000 out of their own pocket, and got nothing from it.

we are up in four. we just added one market here in florida. tampa, we have a brand-new ad talking about the trump tower tampa. you will be hearing about that. this is literally trump pretended like he was a developer on this. he partnered with these d-list guys that build strip malls, they built an apartment complex, people put down $100,000, trump filed for bankruptcy, got away scott free, and these folks lost $100,000 of their own money. trump actually made money on the licensing rights of the apartment complex that never went up. >> [inaudible] >> no, not flying blind.

that is part of the reason that we have talked about these markets. we have seen data that shows trump behind in illinois and missouri. >> who is ahead? >> sometimes he is up of you, sometimes down a few. our polls show marco only five, which is different from the public data. we are going into markets where our data shows trump support falls off. mark: so if you only win two of five. from a delegate story, tt would be colossal. you say you are on tv in places where you are in striking distance, in position. >> yes, that's what i'm saying. mark: that is contrary to the narrative. >> tuesday is an important day, no doubt.

no matter how it goes, it continues. if, like you say, he loses three or four states on tuesday, he is in real trouble. john: there is a split in parts of the republican party that are now committed to stopping trump, they split what the most plausible way to stop him is. one group would say rubio winning, kasich winning, going on to a divided field, holding trump under 1237 and then going to an open convention. others say let's get to cruz and trump as fast as possible. >> think both of those paths are realistic. it goes against the conventional wisdom out there that trump is in really good shape right now. i think he is not. regardless of whether it is a one-on-one with cruz, or with kasich or rubio, it is very hard for him to get out to 1237.

we put out a memo yesterday. i think if the field consolidates quickly, there are a number of paths for him to lose the plurality of delegates, which means nobody would get to 1237. mark: you have a variety of messages you are testing out. let's say john kasich, marco rubio, ted cruz are watching right now. >> i think they should raise in the debate tonight the issues about whether trump has been the most vulnerable but has not gotten much attention. that is related to trump leaving regular people holding the bag to enrich himself. underline his areas of strength. immigration, he cheated immigration laws bringing in foreign workers, instead of hiring american workers. that ties to trade, his outsourcing.

going to those issues go at him from a position of strength. he is less having to defend importing foreign workers and outsourcing in the last five days between now and ohio and illinois, that would be a bad five days for him. john: three newsworthy controversies and whether they help or hurt him politically. saying that islam is at war with america. >> hurts over the long haul. john: people getting punched at trump rallies. >> hurts. john: [inaudible] >> the biggest reason it hurts, it had left the trouble with -- highlights the trouble with women. the fact that his campaign manager manhandled a female reporter -- john: allegedly. >> now, there is audio coming out today right as the incident happens.

this problem is broader than that. remember megyn kelly. a new story about trump models where he imported 14-year-old girls and pay them slave labor. he has a problem with women. john: thank you for being here. mark: a peek inside republican heavyweights talking about, is there any way to stop donald trump? ♪

mark: mistakes in this election are really high, so last night on "the circus" we featured a dinner that mark mckinnon and i attended with some hardened veteran republicans of the establishment variety at a steakhouse in washington, d.c. on k street to get their takes on what exactly is happening

with their party. >> everybody around this table that i know, we have been in every presidential campaign since 1980 in various degrees. trump's problem, you don't know what his compass is. >> how problematic is that for the future of the party? >> before it's all over, hugely problematic. >> people say, why don't you republicans do something about this guy? i'm sorry, this is not the soviet union. we cannot call a meeting and decide that trump is out. >> and we hate that. >> trump is doing well for one reason. he understands the climate and culture of america today better than anyone at this table. mark: how do you feel that the republican nominee could be

someone that none of you know? >> republicans. we are respective of authority, we fall in line. >> he is not articulate, poised, informed. all he has going for him is a lot of umph. why hasn't that hit home? here we are. >> everyone is buying into this he is inevitable and he cannot be stopped here and i believe he can be. >> what are you doing to stop him? >> we are working on it. >> we were ineffective in iowa, and that was enough to knock him into second. >> what is your role in that pac? >> not public record.

>> which concerned you more, that he will lose the general, or how he would do as president? >> losing the election. what we are facing is a choice between hillary and -- >> vote for the least of two evils. >> are you sure trump would be a worse president than hillary? >> humpty dumpty will not come back together. >> that is the great dividing line, that question. >> i think he is an authoritarian figure. deport 12 million people, build a wall along the border. it is so violative of everything i believe about america and the republican party. >> i travel around the world a lot and trump is a laughingstock. the world, whatever that is, is at peace with hillary clinton. >> the next president will decide the direction of the supreme court or the next four years. do you really want to give it to her?

she is going to put up some lefty pinko. >> lefty pinko? what does that mean? >> i have never voted for anybody other than a republican in the united states. this will not be an easy thing. mark: that episode of "the circus" is on right now. -- online right now. john, what is your take on the establishment as we enter this new week and how they view the chances they have to stop trump or make peace with him? john: on the basis of everything i can tell, their chances have increased a little bit and they must be feeling happy, the money is flowing, there will be a bunch of ads trying to take trump out. what comes through in the scene is the dividing line in the establishment between those who are worried about what trump would do as the nominee and what

he would be like as president. there are those that say we should try to stop trump at all costs, even if it means disinfecting voters because having him as a nominee could split the party in a way that could redefine the party in a way that could be damaging to the long-term interests of the republican party. mark: and a fair amount of regret in the establishment of how things have gone, why did they not move sooner to stop trump? just now for the last couple of weeks, they have been figuring out, is there a way to stop trump? you can imagine an effort in new hampshire, for example, that would allow an establishment candidate to do better in that state. john: especially if trump becomes the nominee, there will be a lot of looking back. if you think about that happening, back in september, october, november, it would have

been a different kind of race. mark: the other thing that comes through, there is no denying that that is a group of very smart people who all happen to be older white men. that is representative of the establishment. they are aware that the country is seeing this race differently than they see it in a lot of fundamental ways, but they are still creatures of their habitat. john: and they have a long-term problem. whatever happens to donald trump, the kind of voter that propelled trump are now at the core of what the modern republican base is, and those people, as ron kaufman suggests, the people in that room do not understand very well. mark: tune in next week to see who is still standing after florida, north carolina, illinois voters head to the polls. john: you can stay up-to-date on bloomberg.com. and if you are in washington, d.c., you can catch us on the

radio on 99.1 fm. until then, sayonara. ♪ . . .

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