>> welcome to on the move. it is a: 30 over in berlin. were counting you down to the european open. i am guy johnson, alongside hans nichols who is over in berlin. the boj pressing and negative rates after a surprise in january. kuroda says nothing warrants more stimulus -- we will speak to the man known as mr. yan. -- mr. yan. putin pulls back. russia will start withdrawing

forces from syria in a surprise move. the big question is is oil behind the story? today --ad to the ball head to the polls today. you.morning, next to see japan is really the focus. we have dominated by central banks. i thought we were at the point where we not meant to be worried about central banks. hans: when you look at the way the currency is shrugged off a lot of the most from this is a banks, was -- what those applications are and whether or not in april the boj can do anything to weaken the currency. that is what i think is the story of the hour. what is happening with the yen resilience. how much longer will it stay? guy: hans, we are a half hour

away from the european open. let's take a look at where we stand here it i think you to the bloomberg. i give you the mispriced line it as a result, i can see the bank we are trading down in advance of the european open on failed value -- on fair value. we are going to have a softer open. hans: a soft "we see that it asia world index, that is down for the first time in four days. we've got to have that weaker yen. we got to the stronger yen and a weaker yuan. brent is down a little bit below $39. below that $39 a barrel. let's get to bloomberg fresheners -- bloomberg first word news with kumutha ramanathan. kumutha: the withdrawal of most forces from syria saying his objective has been achieved. plus his intervention last september swung the war in favor of president assad.

the surprise pullout increases pressure on assad to strike a deal at peace talks resuming in geneva. the war is entering its sixth year. it is killed a quarter of a million people and displaced a million more. the people's bank of china has said to have drafted rules aimed at curbing speculation. the initial rate of the tobin tax may be kept at 0% to allow authorities time to refine the rules. the levy would be the most extreme policy yet to prevent speculative debt against the yuan. australia's central bank may cut interest rates if wage growth continues to remain weak. traders are betting it will keep rates at a record low of 2%, minutes from the rba's meeting. low inflation provides scoped to ease. policy makers have been mulling the impact. australia's economy grew 3% in the fourth quarter.

global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . guy: thank you very much indeed, kumutha. let's get you back to this conversation. the be boj -- the boj holding steady at kuroda has maintained the central banks stimulus level and negative interest rates. brian fowler joins us from tokyo. brian, the only thing different the jumps up at what kuroda had to say this morning. brian: there was one thing that jumped out, just from the statement initially. that is the boj has downgraded the economic assessment just a little bit. up until now, they have been saying the economy has been recovering at a modest pace. this time they qualify that. they said the overall tone is modest economic recovery.

they're taking a half step backwards, in terms of what was kuroda said, he has been all over the place. he is had a few wishful thinking moments where he said that the virtuous cycle has kicked into gear which is a little bit hard to stand up based on the data. he doesn't expect negative interest rate policy to adversely affect bank profits. he has also held out the possibility of taking easing and any kind of step out there. he said everything is on the table. the emphasis will be when, not if he use this he uses it further. hans: i like the line about wishful thinking. and as quote saying he wants to play third base for the yankees but he is likely not to. how much is this wishful thinking clouding with boj is doing? do they look at the economy much more clearly?

kuroda is trying to inject a little optimism in the economy. he is doing and intense sales campaign. definitely trying to inject some optimism. just a while ago, he said the conditions are in place for wages to rise. that is true. it is a tight job market here in tokyo. , lot of job offers for seekers the highest in more than a decade. however, wages are still not going up. we're still in the middle of negotiations. wage increases will be lower than this year -- lower this year than they were last year. the unions cut in half the requests because they knew they cannot get more, bigger wage increases. here we have kuroda selling the idea of optimism, telling us anything could go well. but it is not going well.

why are companies not investing? why are they not wheezing -- raising wages. -- what camewler out of johnny's mouth if you days ago. the sales pitch -- i did not did the sales pitch from draghi in the same way i got from kuroda. get that -- i got the exact opposite. we are in a difficult place right now. hans: what jogging was able to do is bring the entire board with them. how much support is he going -- what draghi was able to do is bring the entire board with him. how much support is he going to get. he still influences just because he doesn't have a vote. like you can set him

to the corner with a nice coffee it if you sidelined him for this conversation, he will remember the next time he is and he might -- he is a great deal of influence on what direction and now he might box in mario draghi. i would not put too much stock in the fact that he was not voting last time. kuroda, it is not like he has a lot of dissent. nice to see you. we are talking about central banks. is the -- we are going in the kitchen sink at this. what i'm really concerned about is leading indicators are pointing down. if this does not start to turn around, we are going to sit here and go well that did not work.

what is next? oris either helicopter money monetary stimulus. chart forto bring a him to see. the boj has been surprising the markets. the fed has been committed getting very clearly. the boj has been coming up with a lot of surprises. wish you think is the way to go at this point in time? protist on the kitchen sink at kuroda is throwing the kitchen sink at it. yellen was talking about this for a long time. you which one is going to be more successful at one thing i can tell you is it appears to me we are not quite done yet in terms of what

monetary stimulus is going to do. whether or not that is a shock approach or something we talk about for a long time, the rhetoric [indiscernible] back towant to get helicopter money. both guy and i like to talk about it. we're back at aspiration versus reality. how many milestones will be passed before there is a serious conversation in one of them about helicopter money? presumably there's already a serious discussion in some of the central banks from the concept of helicopter money. i would be surprised if there wasn't. having said that, i think for to be exley implemented you would have to see some kind of -- for to be actually implement it, you would have to see some kind of crisis. a country having to see some sort of external shock. it will drive that type of

decision to be implemented. guy: there are a lot of unknowns at the moment. shock are pretty big. hans, you talk about helicopter money. court,e constitutional this has to be something close to it. hans: i suspect we would hear from -- we will be very worried when schaeuble applies for his pilot license. i think it is interesting point that fredrick makes, you have to have some set of external shock, not just a failure to raise rates. the outsidejor on and then we could be having the conversation in public which i think matters. i really, i think they are talking about it -- privately, i think they are talking about it.

guy: he's got to stay with us. hans and i will be back. the fed starts its two-day meeting. jumped 70%. we'll talk the fed, next. ♪

guy: welcome back to -- hans: welcome back to on the move your i am hans nichols. guy: i am guy johnson. economists predict quality makers will see the benchmark unchanged. hike,obability of a rate 78%. the feds meet, pimco is bearish on treasuries. the manager says the u.s. 10 year will climb of 2.5% as inflation accelerates. the fed will eventually hike rates again. if you want to convince people in the world there is no test the world is not come to an end,

and you want to do that soon, you just hike rates. it seems like like the right .hing to do it hans: you do it now if you want to get a second one in. it will be hard to do it in the middle of an election season. i can't get out of this riddle where in december they said they're going to try for four rate hikes and no one believes that. either they got to hike or they've got to live with a credibility problem. fredrik, the question is do we believe the central bankers anymore? kuroda was saying the economy is all roses and sunshine. in december, we had the fed talking about four rates. at what point do we have to start discounting prognostications from central bankers. fredrik: if i look at what is

happening in sweden and japan, following negative interest rates, if i look across the board, i would say central bankers have been trying to tell a story that the market just has not bought into. that is an enormous issue. you rewind back the clock in terms of when we were talking about qe, and the markets would've reacted in the way that it has now reacted toward negative interest rates, i think the market would had a complete reverberation. central-bank policy just does not work. in 2012, i wrote about negative interest rates. at that point, no one thought that was a possibility. i would still stand about the tech stuff we wrote about about negative interest rates do not work. do we increase interest rates at this time and on to increase sentiment? i do not know that answer. i think the markets would take it very badly, because they the potentiald

for being a trash a moment. guy: you could argue that they are one and done already. 2.5%.mco has the rate at how do we get there? fredrik: we have a rate going at 1.5%. we are slightly different. guy: steven major has a quickly -- has a slightly different view of the world. think that they -- stephen knight come to the same conclusion -- steve and i come to the same conclusion. we come at it from a different allocation -- perspective. i committed the fact we have -- i come at it from the fact we have limited policy ammunition. we have limited risk premium. for me it becomes trying to seek risk premium.

steve comes at it from a slightly different perspective. either which way, if i look at terms of where we could be wrong, and we do see an acceleration terms of wage lending on the back of the ecb, if they are , then bones are no longer going to be trading where they are. where to see the bunds coming up. that will drive treasury yields up. that is the anchor and the global economy. bunds orrgue either stock. guy: an interesting case in point, i think we need to kick it around. he is good to stay with us. minutes away from the open.

we are going to look at some of the central corporate movers. we will see you in a moment. ♪

guy: 7:53 in london. back to the charts. i give you the egyptian stock markets. regularly,talk about but huge move yesterday following the currency move. the depreciation blasting through this 23.6. the next target, 38.2, the but not see their. whatever it is, each it has some headroom. there are good news stories out there. you got to be looking in some of the uncharted corners of the world to find it. hans: you had me until you said uncharted, because uncharted -- the one thing we know is you do not need a chart, you need the right direction. you slow it down here i am going

to see what i'm looking at. i am appealing to our guests -- our guest. i am making a point so he will side with me. the boj adopts a negative policy rate. we see the yen strength and that strengthen. it didn't weaken. here's the interesting part, at a certain point we get a decoupling. the yen is staying. it is holding on to its gain, over we have over -- we have equity markets heading up. this could give you a sense that we are going to have a stronger yen for some time. this is the interesting thing. we are 1:13 p at most companies are talking about a 115 did that is what they have baked into their assumptions for all of those corporate that are banking on a weaker yen. this is a problem for them, especially toyota. guy, you're not going to have to buy alexis yet. wait until next year -- by a lexus yet.

wait until next year we can get a better deal. guy: egypt, the opportunity or the boring yen. fredrik: it means very little to most people. guy: i was going to point that out. there are issues with the dollar. you take with one hand and you have to get back with the other. hans: fredrik, i thank you for you kindness. that is a very sharp tie you're wearing. coming up next, the market open. futures pointing -- i haven't even looked at futures. guy: negative. we are going down. wants there is the ftse 100, down .6%. a similar story around europe. all are about what is happening at this is the banks. we are done with the boj.

we have carney coming up. it is all about the fed. the policy meeting today. that is the story. ♪

guy: good morning. you're watching on the move. i am guy johnson. right here in the city of london. i am alongside hans nichols in berlin. where moments away from the start of the european trading. here is your morning brief did the boj says negative rates after suppressing the market at the beginning of the year. oncea does nothing but stimulus could be coming later this year. russia starts withdrawing forces from syria. the pressure now turns on president assad to reach a deal in geneva.

we're going to talk politics, oil and syria. voters head to the polls today and five u.s. states. will the votes surprise? ♪ vasileios: a quickly that the -- hans go a quick look at the futures. let's head out to caroline hyde with the touchscreen for the market open. caroline: very different picture. the stoxx 600 climbed. it seems to be there rapid selloff in oil and gas happening that is coming down the market at the moment. risk aversion also plagued by the fact that the bank of japan did not do anything more in terms of stimulus. the economist we spoke to thought that would be the case. why the sudden concern? it does seem to be oil prices feeding into the market. the miners down. rbs up 1.2% this morning. .he dax up by .5%

only two stocks rising on the decks at the moment. on the downside, car companies will be digging into that vw story. it is all about the metals and miners. keep an eye on the industry group this morning. oil playing into this. is this the correlation story? brent down 2%. $.62 -- $30.62. they want to stop moving back and helping with that freeze with the rest of opec and non-opec producers. tomorrow, we get eia numbers coming out. will we see that 2.5 million uptick in the united states? worry about supply playing on oil markets. gold turning down 13%. three -- .3%. this the yen higher, dollar lower.

on the downside, it is commodity .elated currency the canadian dollar on the downside. we're looking at debt. we're seeing the japanese yields and negative territory. 2.5%.saying we can get to they got bearish when it comes to the u.s. treasury market. they say risk is going to come and rates are going to come and they are not factoring in enough. on the fact that we've got a surprise uptick in sales. will we get an uptick on the bid offer for home retail group? same-store sales up. h&m down 1.5%. they rose 10% year on year. the market wanted to see about 11% incline.

lastly, volkswagen down by 1.7%. they've got a 3.3 billion euro file in germany. guy: caroline, thank you very much. looking at is nothing in positive territory. a wheel of red. right here at the bottom is the energy sector oil is beginning to roll over. i also take you as well to this, the new fantastic function gmm which takes you around the world and tells you what is important and what is not. the move in the still lack a two-year is something you need to take attention to -- the attention to. what i think it's interesting is energy and materials stocks are starting to decline. it is run out of steam. hans: it seemed like we were in that position a couple of days ago. there was concern about that fact. let's bring back in fredrik nerbrand. i get a chance for you redeem

yourself and we've got the egyptian market opened up 1.4%. you're going to switch it all and say guy is mad -- guys math actually one. fredrik: it is local currency and i am not egyptian so it matters very little to me. me,: two shocking facts to one you're not egyptian -- let's change. it comes down again. what's the balance and materials? should i now be short the segment -- that sector? fredrik: it boils down to your view on the dollar. i was started that and come to the conclusion in terms of what you want to do in terms of commodity market. at the moment i would suggest you had a bounce up and despite of the fact we still continue to see dragging lower interest rate economic variables, there's been

a significant decline in terms of oil, supply. the way i think you play that is in my mind, the asset classes that has the highest risk premium that is pricing in all of this is u.s. creditors, specifically u.s. high-yield credit. guy: a long high-yield? high-yield --s in 19% is in high-yield credit. for most portfolios it would be three years. i marry that up by having significant amounts of treasuries and cash. i do think this is an environment where we continue to see deterioration of economic activity that is going to keep

bond yields in treasuries very low. you are pricing in all of that stuff in the high-yield sector orh spreads around seven eight. your pricing in a significant amount of defaults that are going to happen in the market sector. to near 30% in default rates in the commodity sector. it could be bearish. hans: you are heavy on high-yield spirit your heavy on emerging markets could you touched on a little bit but walking through your interest in a risk premium and emerging markets and the selloff we are seeing in the minors. what we see with commodity extraction-based economy. wouldk: the way that i plan the inside from a wider

.erspective to get the commodity risk, i do that in credit markets in terms of high-yield spirit in emerging markets, i select -- high yields. in emerging markets, all of the commodity import sides -- they have been selling off. guy: what are you going to get out of the sector? what is the turn you're going to make? fredrik: i think you need to know the baron ball case. 2050 basisanother points -- let's say you get another 250 basis points. upside, if it's a stabilization and commodity

prices stabilize, we're all going to move and walking to the sunset together. in that tebow the environment, you're making 25% or 30%. in that type of environment, you're making 25% or 30%. guy: it does the asymmetry flip and that sort of market? fredrik: it is much more linear and and we markets. -- it is much more linear in equity markets. you play the asymmetry more. 15%. most of that is high dividend yielding. equities and some euro stoxx. it is very limited. i have a little bit of mexico. guy: fredrik is going to stay with us.

after the break, we're going to check in on the markets in more detail. as we head into the break. let me tell you those numbers are looking fairly bleak. .ou had a huge selloff massive bounce depending on where you get your entry price. your starting to selloff a little bit. a bit volatility in that sector good hans: we have not seen any oil reaction to the news. has that surprised pullout in syria. we will look next at what russian troops leaving syria will mean for peace talks. ♪

hans: welcome back. told minutes into the session. googler going to work nevertheless. what kind of market are they looking at? a fairly mixed one. the market wedding for the fed to figure out what is going to happen next. .5%.by we are waiting to see what the fed has to say. let's get you caught up on anything you need to know. here is first word news with kumutha ramanathan. kumutha: the people's legal china has set to drop their rules on foreign exchange transactions and to curb currency speculation according to people familiar with the matter. the initial rate of the tobin to allow kept at zero authorities time to refine rules. the levy would be most extreme policy yet to prevent debt

against the yuan. russian president vladimir putin orders the withdrawal of most of its forces from syria, saying the objectives have been achieved. russia's intervention last september -- in favor of president assad. it increases pressure on assad to strike a deal at peace talks resuming in geneva. the war is entering a six year and killed a quarter of a million people and displaced many more. australia's central bank may cut interest rates. if weight growth continues to traders areyou to betting it will keep rates at a record low of 2%. minutes from the rba's march 1 meeting, low inflation provides scoped ease. 3% inlia's economy grows the fourth quarter. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world.

you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . hans? hans: as you mentioned, russia will start with withdrawing forces from syria. the move puts pressure on a side as well as opposition groups to reach a deal at the peace talks started yesterday in geneva. this get more from ryan chilcote who is in moscow. -- let's get more from ryan chilcote who is in moscow. i think the russian president thinks he has accomplished most of the things he wanted to. he has strengthened the syrian government position at the negotiating table. there was a question of whether damascus will default -- would fall to isis or other forces. they are in a much stronger position. he is shown russians that he can project power.

this is the first intervention since the collapse of the soviet union outside of the territory of the former soviet union. it was a real big feat when it was announced back in september. finally today what he is showing is he can do it without getting into the quagmire that many people said he would get into. when he first ascent forces into syria. ryan, it is guy. whatever you see in foreign policy, there has the mystic element to it. isn't that oil continues to be a problem for him? this is a very extensive venture that he is on. it is beennk extensive but not as expensive as it could've been had it continued. my conversation with the russian government and finance minister, the head of russian central bank, taught me that they were

not too concerned about it just yet. had it continued, i think they would've gotten very concerned. where this fits in in my mind is it is a part of a larger russian narrative that the russian government is listening to the russian people. it understands the concerns about the economy. it understood their concerns about russia's getting into a quagmire. that will not happen. in fact, i heard on russian tv this morning, the ruble is even reacting positively to this. we are working with other countries to raise the oil price and we are lowering geopolitical tension that may be also affecting the ruble as well. the sun is out and the message is things are getting better. that is the message the kremlin wants the people to get. hans: thanks for updating us on the ruble. what they are talking about on russian tv. let's show you a quick chart. we see it strengthening.

this is when the news comes out, quite a dramatic move. this morning, it is losing some of those gains. we may have a situation where initially the market thought this was a big news, now they are discounting it ever so slightly. let's get fredrik nerbrand. he is still with us. let's get him on some of these points. you like the emerging markets, even like some exposure to commodities. where are you on russian? i am nowhere on russia. i do not have an allocation into russian assets. russian assets at this point don't really offer that level of risk premium. it is extreme the volatile. given the allocation at this point, i have chosen not to take the position. it is an interesting story in terms of looking at the impact on oil and also the geopolitical story. and tow are you pricing your portfolio -- pricing it in

to your portfolio? u.s. election, we've got five today in terms of the running for november. if that brexit. you got french -- you've got brexit. you got french politics, german politics. so much on the plate. how is it affecting your particular view of the world? fredrik: i would classified as political uncertainty. viewsure some people would -- i think ultimately political risks or uncertainty is a fiction of economic activity. it is not the other way around it if we are -- around. if we are heading into something that is a slowing of growth. the likelihood that would push the insurgent nonestablishment -- so it becomes -- it becomes a

leverage. it amplifies the downside more than anything else in terms of risk appetite. because in that slowdown scenario, you see additional level of political risk. it is one of these basis that you highlighted did that is going to have a hit -- highlighted. that is good to have a hit to the market. hans: how do you modulate your portfolio? when you look at downward trends , what is happening in brazil and the merck -- and elsewhere in emerging markets. you steer clear of those areas? or do you find some acceptable amount of risk? fredrik: that comes back to some of the countries i highlighted before. india, again the economic activity there and the underlying stress -- underlying prospect in india is interesting.

there are political risks and eastern parts of europe. hungary and israel where we have a position. those risks are priced in more than anything else. this is looking interesting in some of the curves and rate markets in indonesia and turkey. at this point, we have not gone that far off. that increase in risk appetite. i prefer to play that through the credit markets. guy: how do you position your portfolio for aggressive fiscal stimulus in europe? fredrik: yet is euro stoxx. -- that is euro stoxx. you can go in and buy some of the industry groups in terms of some of the cyclical stories. i would argue it would have to come around to the fact that you have to see some type of -- you

see janice stimulus. u.s. stimulus. because let's face it if i look dax or somestoxx or of the larger companies, most of the earnings stories outside of the eurozone, in terms of their growth potential. even if europe would do something, find, that would lift some consumer sectors. in the lift real estate sectors. guy: you would bleed some of that stimulus. believe some of the stimulus in which you see a more unified approach in terms of the school policy. i think that's we talked about this before, until we have a new president in power in the u.s., it is going to take at least a two months before you get the u.s. in a position where it can deliver some fiscal stimulus.

guy: economically, that seems like a long way away right now. thank you so much for sharing your thoughts with us. -- good newsand, for the banks and ubs in particular. a rebound with a record month in store as revealed in today's charts. that is next here on on the move. ♪

guy: welcome back.

i am guy johnson did -- i am guy johnson in london. let me check of the market and show you what is happening. we have been in a wait-and-see mode. we had the boj not doing that much. wait-and-see mode over there. they're waiting to see what happens with the fed. the start of the two-day meeting in washington where for the fed, the market is currently pressing in and near 80% chance that we go upght -- we see rates by the end of the year. you want to find of that story? go if you are a bloomberg customer and you will see the latest in terms of market pricing when it comes to the fed caroline hyde is here. allline: what we were terrified about, contingent convertibles, it cannot pay out coupons if your capital is not strong enough. we had the best day here at we have seen a ramp up in issuance.

ubs came up with $1.3 billion worth. the market basically froze back in january. we've suddenly got returns back. but this chart. 7% returns to march. merrill lynch high yields capital index did we have maxed out. dyke just guy: you have a bad month, you have a -- guy: you have a bad month, you have a good month. caroline: it shut it but now we are back in vogue. easy boat is paying ranks to lend. -- paying banks to lend. said they are given more flexible to. maybe you should be allowed to pay some of those payments and coupons basically giving the investor base a bit more strength and security. looks like ubs opens the door. chart.t is a fascinating

caroline, the keeper joining us. we will be discussing where the boj will go next. suki sick i can borrow also known as mr. yen. that is easier for me to say. that is coming up next. ♪

guy: three really big sectors are on the move. energy is down 1.3%. that is the area we are really seeing the selling today. that is consistent with the other markets around your grid those are the three key sectors. down, caroline, my 1%. are the ones we will be focusing first.

the leader of the pack is the ther of ss art, this is billionaire based in israel who is snapping up telecommunications companies. he wants to provide mobile. we don't just want our phone, we want our phone, we won our online ability as well. they are up because the numbers speak they see the synergy of bringing it. the synergies are outperforming. million euros755 in 2015. they wrapped up their own means euros.6 billion they added more fiber companies. they have more residential mobile customers. people like what is going on in this consolidation play. a stock that was down

20% over the last 12 months. let's shine light on it when it outperforms for the day. it's the online retailer. our most isn't that bad. their sales are up 13.8%, ahead of expectations. growth sales are up 15.3%. the orders per week are wrapped up as well. they had been hit i that morrison. they already have a deal. it looks like the numbers are painting a rosier picture. 8.8%. down the numbers, the dividends are not a pretty picture. we knew it would not be. we saw a massive selloff. that affects the minors. they are a big copper provider. see $5.5 million eked out last year. that is down from 422 million are in that is hardly any

profit. they can't give you a dividend. they have to scrap the final dividend it would seem. sales dropped 34%. they are positioned for a turnaround. thank you very much. let's get back to the stop -- top story did the bank of japan held their fire. this is the negative interest rates. they were introduced in january. ands bring in the professor former official at the financial ministry. he joins us from tokyo. thank you for being with us. explain to me the basics on this. why do we have japanese interest rates go negative and we have seen the yen strengthened. the natural development,

the depreciation of the yen and the rise of negative rates. that was the intention when he introduced this. the market did not go that way somehow. guy: why not? isuke: the yen dollar rate in the range of 110 and 115. it's not appreciating that quickly toward 100 and the lane has changed. it is moving at this moment. hans: is it such a disaster or the japanese corporate's, the big companies, if it does stay in that lane it? does it need to get up to 125? is it acceptable where it is right now? eisuke: i think it is acceptable. and 125 between 100

would be all right with the japanese corporations. below 100, that might create a problem. 112, 113 is ok. guy: how far away is japan from helicopter money? what do you say? guy: how far away? before we get helicopter money? before we see monetization of the debt pile? that would not help us. buying government bonds from the markets. buying from the japanese government. continue.

the bank of japan will buy from the markets. they will continue to buy. that has not changed. the dialect is sort of bind the government bonds, the government will not let that happen. hans: it wouldn't happen to have direct purchases. you look at the central banks around the world, they are lowering their currency or trying to get some inflation, which bank which central-bank do you see going it to the recourse of what we call helicopter money? up thethe first to gas helicopter and start tossing whatever currency out the doors? i don't understand what you precisely mean by helicopter money. what do you mean?

the easing of the money? i think what he means is the idea that effectively we need money velocity higher and as a result of which, a phrase has been thrown around a lot around here. the idea is the central bank is going to be aggressively getting money and give it to the population and hope the results of that show inflation creeping back into the situation. you thinkwondering if that is in any way possible in japan? that would not happen. havingd has been deflation. the inflation rate has increased. targetingf japan is and that will probably take

place. japan as well as other developed countries have moved to the stage where the growth late -- rate is low and the inflation -- low.low in currency tool for this? eisuke: i don't think so. the easing of the monetary policy is targeting appreciation of the currency. they did deflate the currency somewhat. the purpose is to stimulate the economy and enhance the recovery of the japanese economy. back,to take a giant step are we spending too much money focusing on what the exchange rate is? should we be looking at other indicators? should we be looking at yield curves? what should be our barometer?

rate is theange result of various monetary policies of the countries. when one country eases, the policy -- monetary lessons. when the united states cap easing their monetary policy recently, theil yen has depreciated. the yen has appreciated. the bank of japan started easing monetary policy from 2010. the japanese yen has started to depreciate to 120. guy: final question. ofuke: this is the result

relative monetary policy. guy: final question. monetary policy is getting close to a tube to deflation target. when it does he hit the inflation target? the inflation target. eisuke: it's very difficult to hit the 2% target. i don't think it won't be in the next two or three years. as long as the rate is below 2%, he can ease aggressively. that is probably his objective. continueg to aggressive easing of monetary policy. that is his major objective. professor, thank you very much for taking up the time and bearing with us with that the late -- delay.

these are some deals coming through on foxconn. it looks like we may have some delays on the deal. there are some quarterly results. they are looking to the numbers. the deal completion is less likely. up next, we will talk about what -- influencing euro stars business right now. we're going to talk about refugees and train services and all of that confusion. that is up next here on "on the move." ♪

hans: this is "on the move." they have drafted rules on the foreign exchange transactions to help curb currency speculation. this will allow time for the authorities to refine the rules. let's beat to our editor in hong kong. for thea step backward easing of capital controls in china? robin: most deadly. this raises the specter of policy uncertainty in china. putting the danger of

long-term investors at sudden uneasiness. they may pull out money in the short term at least. guy: what happens next? just walk us through that uncertainty. robin: the uncertainty is one never knows what china will do to limit capital outflows and encourage capital inflows at the same time. there's no point of putting your money in a country if you can't get the money out. china has been trying to curb speculations on the currency, getting rid of the onshore and offshore rates for quite some time. what this does is enforces a certain tax on people that are speculating. this can get taxed as well. , it's goingnted out

to be 0%. that's telling speculators that if we want to crack down on you, we can. we are going to do it -- not going to do it at the moment, but the aware. guy: it's always great to get your thoughts. your star had a drop in annual profits. had anh-speed train impact -- was impacted by the paris terratec. good morning. are things getting better? for springe bookings and summer are looking quite good. guy: relative to? nicolas: last year. took -- we are behind where we would like to be

because of the terrorist attacks. that affected us very badly at the end of last year. we are catching up. we're advertising a lot, of course. we have our new fleet of trains, which is very good. one of our issues in the past was not enough capacity, none of seats to sell for the summer. we have 20% more in the fleet. confident for the summer. hans: i want to get a capacity and barometer of tourism line of thought. when you say things are in up now, is it where it weren't was last march or spring? are you trying to get to a level where you were before the terrorist attacks? nicolas: we are still trying to catch up where we were before the attack. water one is a funny quarter. it's a very low quarter force.

the ones for us are quarter to and quarter three. fleet, that'snew a big selling asset. we've got wi-fi on board. you can watch movies on board. we just launch that. people love it. we hope it will use the passenger numbers. hans: walk me through the boost in capacity. presumably, you will only need the trains in the summer. will they be idle in the off-season? how do you square that with labor laws in france? of course, we will run the trains were heavily during the summertime. we've got good fleet utilization for the profitability. we have more seats train. -- in terms of labor,

we don't have many problems in france. it's never been an issue. we are gilded for that. we are investing more money in france to increase the capacity in paris, that is a bit tight. we make it much your for the summer. guy: walk me through your contact city -- contingency plans for a exit. -- brexit. nicolas: we are able to the symbol. of course we would rather everything stayed as it is today. brexit, wea exit -- don't know what that would look like. hopefully it would not affect us much. guy: what are your lawyers telling you? when you look at the structure in place, what are they telling

you? nicolas: no one can say which direction it would go. base would not be affected. still have an appetite for people to travel across europe. we have been growing for 10 years. haseuropean integration helped a lot of business by supplying the way we do business. it's standardizing the way we work in different countries. it's easier for us to make business. brexit meant the u.k. would go away and cause complexity to the business, we don't know. hans: staying with the geopolitical uncertainty, if you to the train in germany, it would have been delayed because there are refugees on the tracks, on the trains.

to what extent has the refugee crisis and its way to your core business and what is your response to it? nicolas: last summer, there were many refugees that were on the french quarter to the u.k.. it affected us during the summer. as you mentioned, many of these people were unaware of the risk trying to get to the u.k.. they were on the tracks. we had quite a lot of delays over the summer. we wanted to test the tracks better so that would not happen. quiet.en very safe and we have not had any more problems since october. in that respect, we are in good position. guy: how long does it take to take a train from london to blend? you could meet halfway

in amsterdam at the end of next year. ingo to break to amsterdam 2017. maybe you can have it. hands am always meeting y. hans halfwa the of us are going to polls in florida, north carolina, and missouri. this is the critical. what is at stake today? hans: there are two things to look at today. one is the momentum story and the second is the delegate story. three of the states are winner take most or all. it's ohio in florida. whoever gets a plurality, gets those delegates.

that matters on the republican side. who canre be anyone stop donald trump from getting 50% of the delegates? the other story is momentum. what is this going to do to marco rubio if he loses in his home state. if john kasich carries his own state, especially if the margin is significant, you will see a lot of republican establishment, the big money line up behind john kasich as the best chance to stop ted cruz and donald trump. that's what i'm looking for. there is another vote on the democratic side as well. incredible, the math is incredible on this. he is a man of many hats. guy: tomorrow, we will see the budget. there will be a policy meeting. anet yellen will deliver

verdict on the u.s. economy and the outcome in terms of interest rates. it's unlikely to deliver much in terms of surprises. the central banks seem to be in the games. is bloombergw first word. walk me through your week. the fed meets now. let's get into that story. >> you get u.k. jobs and wage data ahead of the budget. this will go in. i do think the bank of england will do anything. themnk brexit has sideline until june or beyond. i will be interested to see if the fed mimics the language in the wake of the december statement or if it mimics janet

yellen when she testified last month. that was more cautious. guy: they are banging their --ds against the best in test. desk. we are still fascinated and distracted by every single move and my new should and detailed traders i talked to every day. to be the world we live in. it really is. like that idea that traders are interested in something other than central banks. they are the ones looking at it and i suppose they get to choose. what would they rather be focused on? housing starts? is there any way the fed can raise four times this year like

they said in december? going to be very difficult for them to keep that timetable. hikes was rate expected this month and that's not going to happen. there might be too. i think best the timetable. guy: that's quite a lot relative to the rest of the world. richard: everybody else's loosening policy. guy: what is the message you are taking away? they are signaling doom and .loom out there which one do you listen to? richard: i think there is a mismatch there. one of the things i am focusing on, the data cannot provide enough growth. that's the big issue. guy: thank you very much indeed. stay with bloomberg television.

surveillance is up next. the time doesn't exactly work. surveillance is coming up next. they have some great guests. things are a little softer. have a great day. ♪

francine: european stocks fall impacts negative rates. there is hope in reality. more caution when entering the bond market. the bank of japan has a currency reference rate. there may be a tax on foreign exchange transactions. the top of the oil market may be higher than you think. the recovery will weeks -- be sputtering. this is bloomberg "surveillance."