mark: attention citizens of earth. it is 6:00 on the east during seaboard. we will look at some of the exit polls. theof republican voters in states would be satisfied with donald trump as their candidate. if the general election is trump versus clinton, 36% say they would consider voting for a third candidate.

54% for public and to vote in florida said they would prefer the next president to be an outsider. 54% ofdemocratic side those who chose clinton would be satisfied with sanders. 49% of sanders supporters said they would be satisfied. what stands out? john: it is a study in contrast, these parties. the democratic party's happy with where they are. has been some rancor between hillary and bernie. the republican party is not unified. there is a lot of rancor. the third-party number there is striking. more than a third of the party would think about voting for a third-party candidate.

mark: donald trump and hillary will still be the front runners at the end of the evening. florida and ohio are the big prizes. tough implications for marco rubio if he loses florida. it is a very big night. single elimination games both of those guys could be out of the race tomorrow. we haven't seen that happen very often so far. donald trump and ted cruz definitely go on. does are in a world where john kasich ted cruz and donald trump huge debate in the republic party. is that good for donald trump are bad for him. said donald trump should let john kasich win ohio because

he is better off with it not being a one-on-one race. john: you make the counterpoint there about a lot of the head-to-head polling ted cruz can be donald trump. mark: it is a roll the dice. in a one-on-one race is ted cruz start beating donald trump that it's over. donald trump wins. in a three-person race it is harder. on the other hand, ted cruz might be a little when one-on-one. and central doesn't just steamroll his way to the nomination. there is no easy answer. john: ted cruz is correct when he says that only he has shown that he can beat donald trump.

if you look at some of these states the doctor calendar going forward my home state of california. donald trump versus ted cruz in california, donald trump wins that. but with john kasich in the mix it could be a three-way split and maybe even john kasich could win california. the idea for donald trump should be to lose ohio i think is wrong. things slow down after tonight. those northeastern states eventually come into play. in the short term could ted cruz start proving to people that he could beat him? arizona is a very strong state for donald trump. not clear at all the donald trump would be the winner.

what about wisconsin. if ted cruz's one-on-one with donald trump he could beat donald trump in wisconsin. because that electorate has a some of theate mover to ted cruz to stop trial. galvanizing the anti-trump wing of the party. is a 40% candidate. but has not proven yet that he is a 50% candidate. john: the ideological threat of donald trump support he's demonstrated in michigan, i think donald trump would be the favorite in the rust belt. goodruz gives up a lot of in terms of how he spoke out against donald trump. he's making a lot of people

think that maybe we could consider him. their three states in play on the democratic side. illinois ohio and missouri. john: it matters a lot how many berniedonald trump sanders wins. you are facing daunting math going forward. bernie sanders have to pull an inside straight here. you have to get every card. doing well tonight is imperative. victory,ee would be a anything less than that is not a victory. arizona will be a very interesting matchup. john: the math is stacked against them going forward. all that matters is momentum and symbolism. the difference between three and

zero is enormously comes to momentum. the front runners are hillary and donald trump. we had a lot of guests coming up. senor and campbell brown coming back. kelly and conway. we'll be right back. after these messages. ♪

john: campbell brown and mr. campbell brown are here. senor.y dan a lot of speculation about marco rubio. he might want to stay in and make a deal with somebody. dan: i'm hoping he wins tonight in florida. i know he is fully committed to stopping donald trump. any decision he makes will be .riven by how to stop trump someone we can be proud of. mean cooperating with

one of the other candidates. if he loses tonight and makes a deal with one of the , wouldand endorses them that be treated as exciting or be demolished by donald trump as a cynical deal the two losers are making to try to stop me? campbell: you can argue it both ways. i think it would be demolished. there is a fundamental problem that you have to come to terms with. the ideas and been so important to you like it entitlement reform and immigration reform that you thought were going to be the future of the republic and party are just not according to donald trump.

knowing the donors and people who support rubio, i don't think they would go to ted cruz in the same way that they might go to john kasich but they are not thrilled with john kasich either. dan: we talk about something else. talking about hate in our political discourse and talking about reacting to donald trump i thought marco rubio was better than i've ever seen them. he had a couple of moments in the last 48 hours that i thought, where has that guy again? campbell: i thought he was honest and authentic but at this

stage of the game it sounds like a bunch of whining. you haven't developed a plan for what you are going to do. you have said he will not support donald trump as have a lot of people in their public and party but you've not coalesced around a candidate or a plan or anything. trump amongction to was slow.e me but there is plenty of precedent at republican conventions that the person who comes in with the most delegates doesn't win the nomination. we have a long way to go, three or four months. there are plenty of scenarios where donald trump can be stopped. john: if you listen to what rubio has said, how can you listen to those things and not conclude and not go the last mile and say i will not support donald trump? dan: i haven't heard him say

this but if you listen to what feels, wehe way he have got a real problem. we can't be for donald trump but we can't be for hillary clinton either. the whole notion of being a conservative republican in the era of trump is a tough problem. we don't have a solution. we are going to work on this and figure something out. being for hillary's unacceptable. that is where most republicans are. mark: let's say trump wins three or four states tonight. more people coming out like chris christie who come out and endorse him from the establishment wing? campbell: there will be a lot of establishment people coming up. i hear is 200 and five. if he gets more than 205 he is in.tonight

a very specific number. he's a certain percentage to get to the magic number of 1237. 200 and five tonight is what keeps him at that level where he can get to the magic number. dan: if you look at trump's performances in the last couple of press conferences. you already start to see the beginning of a more measured donald trump. speaking more responsibly. as he gets closer to the nomination, will say you know what i said in the primaries that is all negotiable. more and more people doing what chris christie did. look at what kevin mccarthy said on california. he said it twice.

i am terrified of the image of trump on the stage with a bunch of these people not just chris christie but seven or eight people. we can call that a trump shower. a beautiful mosaic. [laughter] dan: the pit is terrifying to me. those are not big numbers. mitt romney at this point had 56% of the delegates. when donald trump is not performing there is still major resistance to him. 61% of the voters are consistently voting against him. if he was running away with this thing we would be having this discussion. campbell: there are enough people who do whatever it takes

in an open convention. john: we also have stopped hillary clinton. thank you very much. our bloomberg politics colleagues were covering the democrats will be here. right after this. ♪

mark: who'll be the big winner

this evening on the democratic side? jennifer epstein is here. margaret fallon also here. hillary is in florida tonight. why did she choose that state. jennifer: it is about tonight and it is also about the general election. it is a state she is likely to win by the biggest margin. she wants to be in a place that she is going to win big. she will probably win north carolina as well. the other states may be leaning toward sanders. she is trying to make this case that she can go to hotel with .onald trump donald trump will be just three miles away at his estate. a kind of a geographical showdown between hillary and donald trump. what clinton hopes november will look like.

john: were you looking at in these five states? the margin in florida is important and also the margin in those midwestern states. sanders is moving on to arizona indicating strongly that he is staying in the race. no matter what happens tonight. he is in the game. to the extent that she loses in those midwestern states it may tell us as much about her problems in the general election as it does about the direction of the democratic contest. say not hearing any experts that hillary has a delicate problem. john: what you think it would mean for her if sanders repeats what he did in michigan? margaret: it doesn't necessarily peoplet the sanders would vote for donald trump or

ted cruz. it does say in terms of turnout she may have a problem. depending on how badly things go tonight. with manufacturing workers and younger people. it tells usk definitively what it says about independence. it is not great for her and she has not made any progress on that. much anxiety is there in brooklyn about the prospect that she may be fighting until june to get the nomination while donald trump already has sold it up? jennifer: they are trying to play it down. like the ideaey of continuing to fight two wars on two different fronts. sanders against bernie and all the republicans. the truth is if we get to the point where donald trump is

totally focused on her they are going to wish they could focus all of their energy on striking back at him. they may still be trying to stay above water. it seems like her delegate total will expands tonight based on florida and north carolina. herg much bigger wins for than the other three states will be for sanders. all three.win you don't want to become donald trump's number one punching bag any earlier than you have to. john: we all got this lesson in

delegate math and what that means. a lot of reporters had never gotten into that. how difficult is making for given that reporters are much more sophisticated about it . laying out spreadsheets and talking about proportionality. margaret: he is still drawing a lot of people to his rallies. what point does the critical mass of media lose interest in covering bernie? they know it is very difficult to see any kind of the scenario unless the bottom just fell out where he could just catch up with hillary in terms of pledged delegates. if he could get those superdelegates that would be great but why would that happen? but he can still talk her

further to the left. he has been doing it consistently and michigan helped him. obama someone like barack shows up at his door and says you have to wrap this up why would he stop? the clinton folks are arguing the math now. are not saying it is time for bernie to quit. they follow the obama playbook they will come to that point. this race should be over. you have a sense of what their trigger is for that? jennifer: we have been pushing a lot with people on the campaign and outside people, very hard to get them to show exactly when that moment will happen. the challenges that she was on the other side of it last time.

it is an inconsistency there. since she got over the 200 delegate margin a few weeks ago her lead in delegates is already bigger than barack obama's ever was. the time that they are looking at is after all the contests of march. when you get into that first week of april. that might be the moment where even if she doesn't win all that many. she will still have such a big they will say this is basically insurmountable. run a goodders has race, he is gotten a lot of attention on the issues that matter to him, but considering

that we have to fight the republicans we need to move on to the general election or otherwise we can't beat donald trump. if hillary cannot get rid of bernie sanders until the late spring, does that keep her from fundraising? margaret: she needs some help in certain areas. she has to be able to bring him along enthusiastically. mark: thank you so much. we will talk to a strategist from the ted cruz super pacs after this. ♪

>> our next guest is the lead

strategist for an array of super pacs supporting ted cruz. we are sitting here and it is election night and will have results soon, but on the basis of what you currently know, where will your guy be strongest? >> there is so much focus on as john kasicha seems to be running for governor of ohio and marco rubio for senator of florida. >> jobs they already have. >> we feel very good about missouri. you can win or lose the popular vote statewide and still do well. in the ted cruz world it is tonight what it has always been which is delicate aggregation. if we should fall short of the 1237 number to be an odds-on favorite as the non-trump alternative. >> would it make your night

marcoif john kasich or rubio -- obviously you want marco rubio out of this race, how much worse if john kasich hangs on as opposed to falling? >> it won't. we can argue it either way. we can say he won the two men race. senator cruz normally wins the men on men battle, but having the non-trump contingent covered by casey and rubio is not bad. me that there is a vote 35%-40% pro-trump that will not leave him under any circumstances. the growth area is in the non-trump vote and that is where the growth area is and it has been scattered among so many different candidates for so long .

if you consolidate that and leverage it then you have a trump her's is non-trump vote. starting tomorrow the fight is no longer establishment versus nonestablishment. if ted cruz and trump are the two nonestablishment outsiders, this is an outsider's election. for us the question is not establishment versus nonestablishment but trump versus non-trump. i think you will see a lot of these donors come to ted cruz and many of the grassroots leaders because ted cruz will not go to the establishment, the establishment will come to cruise. >> you are a longtime associate of donald trump. would you describe him as a fat

-- friend? >> i don't know if he would describe me as a friend but i am an ally. >> are you outraged personally as a mother with some of the things he said his women? >> i would prefer a different choice of words. i am disturbed and i did not like hillary clinton referring to pro-life republicans as terrorists. it all bothers me. >> would you say a person who said one of the things he described in that ad -- if a ceo said one of the things they would not get the job? >> they may get the job. it depends. >> not whether they should, but whether they would. in a publicly traded cup in a? >> it depends on all the things about them and you know that. >> here is my question. do you think the themes of that ad are effective in trying to keep him from winning the nomination?

>> somewhat. i can see it being most effective and it donald trump versus hillary clinton general election matchup where she needs to bank on 58% of the female vote. if hillary clinton is the democratic nominee, chances are i will have an opportunity to recap the gender gap. >> my last question in the sequence that i have been how could it be that donald trump does not seem to be wounded by an ad like that or the fact that he says stuff >> if youabout women ask me as someone who sat on his boards and respects his business acumen he employs many people. he donates a lot of money to charity. why do i think these ads whether trump university or trump is a misogynist or trump is a

democratic donor -- even the weight of all of those ads for any other candidate would have sunk them. it is that his voters decided a long time ago that when you attack donald trump you are attacking me, the voter. a did a smart thing almost year ago locking arms with the voters saying i am for you, i am giving you a voice. so when he is attacked they feel like they are being attacked. text that is a wise analysis. never a doll moment. thank you for coming on. if you are watching this program in washington, d.c., even listen to it on the radio on bloomberg 99.1 fm.

♪

>> we want to do a republican classic candidate around starting with our colleague who beach covering the trump campaign. kevin, a big night for donald trump. layout what he plans to do from now over the next couple days. has no scheduled events tomorrow or thursday which is rare. this is all coming after the fallout from the chicago cancellation. he did maintain events in the past couple of days but did move some of those events staging them smaller in the town hall format which is having haven't seen from him but either way his

campaign tells me they will clearly be looking at the results tonight and let that restrict the strategy for them going forward over the next week. >> we will go to our friends with the rubio campaign in miami and what is being billed as a post celebration style. everyone thinks there is a sense of impending doom. >> there is a bit of that sense but you would not know it. i'm here in miami where people are starting to trickle in. i have followed rubio since april and i've never seen him quite as reflective and introspective. something is changing in him as he stares down the possibility that his political career could come crashing down. he went on about his parents, not the usual details like my father was a bartender but he

had a line that really struck out to me he said in tough times some of my worst days are better than some of their best days. he is bracing for the worst but using confident language like when i get to the oval office to keep the sense that he is still in this. >> you just talked about a striking differentiation between how he is campaigning now than previously. i've seen candidates who seems to be at their best when they knew they were done. do you think that rubio right now is better than we have ever seen him? >> and away i would say so. he does not feel that scripted. he's opening up and on some level i think he is considering the fact that this is it. he talked also about how when he descended to the level of personal tax on trump that he regrets that. the sheer anguish on his face

when he was asked if he would still support trump after all of these reports of violence -- the look on his face and body language of i will still support the nominee with hesitation said more than anything else he has done. this is really painful for him to consider the possibility that trump could be his party's nominee. ohioipping now down to where john kasich joins us. say kasich has continued to he will win the state and has tried to stay away talking of donald trump but did over the weekend and said that he saw this new ad we have been talking about showing some of the things donald trump has said over the years about women and john kasich teased everyone saying he would have more to say about that. what do you know about the time

and place? >> he clearly did not what to talk about today but he's been hinting at events even yesterday that he wants to talk more about donald trump and his conduct in this campaign. thats said in the event is these images are being broadcast around the world and it makes america look like it doesn't know what it is doing and america is broken and he can be the one to fix it. this could signal a shift in how he treats donald trump and the approach he has been dealing with the republican front-runner. >> we been discussing, what happens to the establishment, do people all come to kasich? does the campaign think that they will have that and where does he go next to win after he wins his home state, if he does? campaign thinks that if rubio loses florida that

it becomes a three-man race and the donors and the momentum come to john kasich. he becomes the clear alternative if you do not want ted cruz or donald trump as your nominee. he does see himself playing in states like pennsylvania, wisconsin, connecticut, new jersey. is march madness and he has home-court advantage coming up here in the upcoming races. >> lets to the final crack of the whip to head down to the cruise watch party in houston where our colleague is on hand. and conway kelly here talking about ted cruz maybe doing well in missouri or illinois. but something you have been thinking about a lot is the degree to which ted cruz put a lot of focus on north carolina. tell us what that was about. >> obviously north carolina is pretty heavy for the voters.

think he was trying to .ominate that voting block >> to you think there is a sense inside the campaign of whether that worked or has worked? >> i think they have a very good feeling about it. people say he is excited to do well with illinois and north carolina. >> it's all part of a larger thing which is with crews trying to make the argument that in terms of the delegate map he is the only anti-trump player in the field that is left. do you think that's just an argument they are deploying or they believe there is some way that ted cruz could get the delegates? >> i think a little bit of both.

clear became pretty tonight it is as much about watching how they do as how he does. he's been very hopeful about wanting it to men race with -- he trump and getting feels that they bolster his numbers. >> thank you and thank you to all of our colleagues in the field who will be reporting on this race tonight and into tomorrow. we will be right back. ♪

>> we are joined now by two more

of our reporters taking a quick break from the campaign trail and are here on our set for the first time ever, i believe. pleased to see you. let's start with you. you have been watching rubio. these last couple days to make the point that rubio is a different rubio. have you observed that? and what do you think that he has emerged in these closing .ays with doom hanging over him i think he is trying to go out with some dignity and trying to save the race and trying to sleep at night. he talked a few weeks ago about wanting to run a campaign that his kids will be proud of. last night he was in west miami in his hometown and his daughters were on stage with him.

it wasn't so poetic, his microphone went out and the bullhorn did not really work. it was a 17 minute speech that ended abruptly. anti-trumpdoned the comedy routine that he was doing and it seems like he's trying to get beyond the idea that he will lose tonight. >> hillary clinton has three home states, arkansas, and illinois and all of a sudden bernie sanders started playing the rahm emanuel card. does that seem to be effective? or is this specific to this city? >> i don't know if it can be rahmyed elsewhere but emanuel's approval numbers are so atrocious, especially with black voters and he has endorsed hillary clinton.

hillary has said that she has his back and has confidence in him as a mayor, but because of the police shootings, the school budget crises, rahm emanuel is an especially bad trouble with black voters and they will be a special part of the democratic electorate. road heder if done the can deal with the fact that she has all of these endorsements. i wonder if they will set this president -- precedent of going after these people who have endorsed. could that work elsewhere? >> possibly if there are controversial figures done the road who are as close to clinton as she is to rahm emanuel. >> i will ask about florida because i always ask about florida. if the polls are correct and trump doesn't just win, but wins big. what is that about? was thoughtjeb bush

to have a stronghold in florida but what do you think explains trump's dominance of florida? >> his dominance in florida is explained the same way as it is everywhere else. his supporters identify with him. they have known him for a long and the hits on him and his marriages and these things in the past -- it doesn't bother them. -- rubioarticularly has not tended to the base their like maybe he should have. he's been very busy getting ready for this campaign nationally and there are a lot of hurt feelings in florida. not just because he has been largely absent but also over the immigration stuff. >> back to hillary clinton, is she a favored daughter?

the second president from illinois? >> she has never made that connection. she has to clergy is a cubs fan, but she is also a yankees fan. the couple years ago she got the highest award in illinois, the order of lincoln. illinois has tried to claim her as a native daughter but she has probably never quite made that connection, possibly a problem -- possibly also because of that 2008 race and obama has stronger , more recent ties to the city. >> let me ask you about rubio, the notion of his getting out. dancing or said earlier that he would want to try to beat donald trump. any idea of the forum that would take? >> you have to get behind ted cruz. i don't know where john kasich will win next and you can make the argument that rubio owes it to ted cruz at this time. the anti-trump effort has put

more ads in florida than all of the other states combined today and it will be trump's biggest win of the night if not the election and that comes at the expense of other states where ted cruz will be within a few points of north carolina and illinois. if this effort really is to stop trump and not to help rubio, then they will have to line up behind ted cruz. illinois, what happened in chicago, did it help him or her him? >> i think it probably not make a huge difference. i think it probably helps clinton long-term the most. i was in the room that night and it was like a crazy college football game that went terribly wrong with two teams that hate each other pouring onto the floor. one of the things that went to my mind is that this is good for

hillary clinton because if you are a suburban mom who is a independent voter, this is a scary thing to look at and mothers went to protect their children so it seems like it might help clinton more than hurt trump. mike and john we're happy you're here. who is going to win, after this? ♪

>> tonight, soon we will know who is going to win. three big winners

are the american people, people who are donors to marco rubio who want to stop writing checks to marco rubio and donald j trump, billionaire. kasich andich, karen his daughter. i think he will win in ohio. >> i think he is too, but the lack of interest rallying around john kasich across the board is extraordinary. marco rubio will fail tonight but would at least have his dignity. don't forget if you're watching too andan listen to us washington, d.c.. all of the coverage tonight tomorrow our analysis. enjoy your super tuesday night. [inaudible] ♪

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ap she ste besl ofeep r youlife. pisleechq tegynoty anyoway nt. alyeea slmbp nutoer sre. charlie: jeffrey goldberg's here and he is a national correspondent for the atlantic and a winner of the national magazine award for reporting. his new cover article is called the obama doctrine and ross in a series of conversations with the president and others about his foreign-policy decisions and the thinking behind them. james bennett calls it a portrait of a presidential mind at work. i am pleased to have jeffrey goldberg back at this table