change the way you experience tv with x1 from xfinity. ♪ mark: clinton's clean sweep. tightens the grip on the primary democratic nomination. the u.s. federal reserve is expected to postpone tightening and reduce expectations for future hikes. ups and downs. that's what china's premier says is in store in the country in his only press conference of 2016. he outlines a reform plan. and u.k. budget on boil. his llor osbern delivers

iscal plan luring the european membership vote. ♪ mark: welcome to "countdown." there are a couple of big things on play. the japanese going lower with the lower band. and the chinese ready to take appropriate action to stimulate their economy. but it will all come down to the perspective and the prism of one group of people, the federal reserve and just what can they get away with? this is what i'm talking about. you've got a new function on your terminal. it is dots go. if you ever wondered how to monitor what's beginning on. the yellow dots which begin here in the far left and rise are the current dot path given by the federal reserve president. that's where they believe raise

hikes will go. that is delivered by the green line. so that's the theory. so the theory is that there will be four rate hikes by the end of 2016. the market is having none of that. the market actually believes there is much less priced into the mark. the rhetoric that is used today is going to define how the market perceives the next series of moves that will come from the federal reserve. i said that in part of ways today is about the u.k. budget. what will george osborne deliver? we're going to talk to my colleague down in the green. he said get ready for minus five. that's theoretically where we could go. theories sometimes become reality. let's look at your risk radar. inventories came in at 1.5 million barrels. that's one of the lightest bills that we've seen. ock is seeing a delay, holding

output. you've got $31.18. that's a rally there. so you've got to -- the fed in play. will they still leave the door ajar for the potential of three rates hike. $14.41.ave dollar yen banksvernments in central sold long-term treasuries at a record pace. who sold them? it wasn't the chinese. given hubris that's what you would have thought. what's going to happen to the after minister in south -- africa. good morning. >> premier league chris young

said china's economic performance is diverging against provinces as challenges rise. lee wanted to end the national's people's conference. he said while there be ups and downs beijing will have innovative means to support the economy. the bank says they can lower interest rates even further. governor kuroda said the bank could cut interest rates to minus .5%. japan is far from the 2% inflation target and they see additional estimate luss ahead. it has given new momentum to truggling peace talks in get nueva. but they called it a positive move. john kerry says he'll travel to

moscow next week for meetings on the withdrawal and peace talks. belgium prosecutors say one person was killed and four police officers were wouldn'ted in a counterterrorism raid linked to the november paris attacks. at least one suspect is on the run in brussels. the paris attacks were carried out for a group based in the belgian capital. it's not known if the key was the la abdusalam ey target. uis ignacio lula devila is accused of money laundering. now the president is under pressure from a wide inquiry and following up grueling calls for her impeachment. in more than 150 news bureaus

around the world, you with find more stories on the bloomberg at top go minute. ma us in: hugeer quity market reaction in theation segment. julia is standing by to take us through the market. is there a much more currency play rather than theer quity -- than theer quity focus. take it away. >> julie: we're seeing the theg the owing regional benchmark index lower for a second consecutive session. very much a waiting game in this part of the region as we wait for the feds. .2 of 1%. most of those gains coming up

after the we hear the premier's speech. new zealand's market having its first loss in 13 sessions. i'll just show you some of the movers that have we have been watching in the region. feel that long ongoing saga about whether or not he is going to proceed with the $65 billion rescue bid. the shares fall by sthr 78%. honhi which is the parent ompany rose in tie pie and pinoit insurance with a pretty heavily profit. it's about those currency moves and we're seeing a little bit of a switch out of the yen. it could with in track for the first loss of 2016. ma us in: thank you, julie.

now u.s. presidential hopeful hillary clinton she's tightened her grip on the democratic primary nomination. sweeping winds in ohio, illinois and north carolina. meanwhile donald trump secured a victory in florida, illinois, north carolina. but he was blocked -- he was blocked in ohio by governor john kasich. let's go straight to our washington bureau corn, megan. how does the race change tonight because this sort of unsettles trump. he really needed that ohio win, didn't he? >> well, you know, he had a very good night without ohio. he still won three states. it's very, very tying in missouri. we still have two counties outstanding. so we have a very good night. he would have loved to win ohio. ohio would have given him that unstoppable force that he has become that would have

solidified that. he didn't get that. and that means john kasich's campaign goes on. and more than likely the trump campaign moves on and try to see what they beat him. or what they're going to do next as you look at this map going forward. it looks like this republican primary race is going definitely towards you and maybe to the convention in july. ma us in: you look at the numbers that we've got up on the screen. we've got trump on 621. cruz 3 96. and kasich has 138. how does it look for kasich? because that's a long way to go to bridge that gap between cruz and kasich. >> it's a very long gap. there's no mathematically possibility of kasich securing the vote. what he's trying to do and what he's going to try to do is basically pick up enough delegates that he will perhaps get more than donald trump and

go into the convention with more delegates if not an outright majority. or he will just try to get enough to be -- to remain competitive. his whole strategy has been to take it to the broker convention. ted cruz really wants a man on man matchup that's why tonight it was not a great outcome for him. he really thinks that he can beat trump one-on-one in these states in the winner take all state where is the delegates are awarded a winner take all. so it's not a great night for him but whether we see the establishment try to rally behind ted cruz also not their favorite candidate that's going to be something to watch in the coming weeks. >> yep. it's certainly heating up. it really is art imitating reality. i don't know which one is the more real state. great job keeping us abreast of everything in this 2016

presidentials. thank you very much. let's get simon derek's opinion. he is the chief currency strategist and my next host for the next hour. it just gets crazier and crazier. trump, it would have been nice if he got it a while but he's full steam ahead, this guy. you mentioned that the "the house of cards," it's one of the difficulties that these guys have writing scripts. i think what's interesting to me about the race taking place right now is that it's up in november and october for a presidential race that could have genuine currency implications or for the first time in 20-odd years. pretty much everyone has expressed pretty strong opinions on currency manipulation. talking about return to the gold

standard. his really quite extreme thoughts and will make ate tight race. i suspect he's going to be friends with -- donald trump has mentioned that mr. kasich has mentioned it. >> japan bashing protectionist. this is all predicated on the view that we run up towards a republican victory. >> have a look at the democrats because hillary clinton has used the same kind of language with regard to china. you to remember that 20rks-odd years ago going into the election. said when it came to currency. her policyse, she -- of driving it lower, it was from 1992. what's the smartest to put

between ni and the election? >> i think i will be buying something that is volatile. i think that's exactly where you want to see him. you're not being cut off in your pride. this is fed day. it is as i said, the policymakers, are they likely to sandy message that the plans will be delayed and made a lackluster. eye. gloomy eye to the fed's projections will probably show immediate forecast of just three raid rises in 2016. now, that's going from four back in december. you can pull it up all on your bloomberg an it is the function dots go. d i find that app about 3: 306789 we have the chief currency expert.

there's nothing that we won't do here to push this storied agenda. >> ok. so the language has got to be incredibly porn. in december, time they had this balanced view of the rest. and we talked about dropping the balance of risk. it's a about the global perspective, the dollar and the guidance. -- it came back to in a very real way. not everybody believes that -- well, we went from nearly balance, nearly balanced into balanced and then we dropped balance. >> absolutely. > it was clearly keen to leave it. if you see no mention of the economy being balanced then that

is a signal. they are opening the way for movements between two meetings. given the fact that we've had a rather gentler march so far in late february is we're going to get something that's about nearly balanced. they're going to open up the way for a possibly raise hike in the next two meetings. an interesting bit here, they will moderate him back from where they were just sinking. three or four muferse. an interesting thing, the market keeps miving to me. i'm going from the position where it was not wrong to now i think it's wrong to two. and so actually there's a glove more of a competency. 's meetings wouldn't give them the confidence. >> when we look at that, i'm just trying to have a look at the bloomburg dollar.

>> you've got anna little bit of an easing against its pierce. and i was just picking up. this is what the fed actually or are actually quite relieved. >> i know we've been right here. but back then anticipation of the day really. >> i have to agree that i mean, aye sooner the other factors in play here. but you know, you got to remember in the early part of february we have a massive amount of risk aversion. and ironically the currencys that affect the most not dollar. a more ty the market is modest pace but nevertheless i think the simple fact of the matter is, one to two heights. sometimes cold contact at a major central back. you wouldn't expect him to see that -- >> well, stay with mesm and you

want to stay with bloomberg television. we have special coverage as you would expect. you don't want to miss any of it. . stay focused for that a little bit later on bloomberg television. and the church. the news conference at 6:30 that is the time. sit tight with the your glass of wine, your popcorn. here is your day ahead. first up, u.k. we've got the jobs report. nd then a few hours later. half past 12 in london. this is a man will have to see how much of his numbers and presents the annual budget. let's get and we're about to get more numbers. anna is down there on the green at westminster this morning. very good morning to you, anna.

how bright is it going to be for the chancellor? how is he going scare this away it. a bredth of debate in >> he's boxed himself a little bit politically. he's looming in lake june. we have and of course, she wants to keep her own political chance. he might have his eye on the leadership of the conservative party. with all that in mind he is of course, famously as the other talk about fixing the roof. a few tiles might have come loose since november. it means he's got to do some repair work and he doesn't have much to play with. the officer budget responsibility will step out the agenda, the forecast we have to play with looks likely that they will reduce the number today. legally. imself e's talked about that over the

weekend. he's laid the groundwork for that, of course. they will try to get more revenue. will he change the pace at which some.ld use a levy on the he doesn't want to alienate those voters. there will be one to watch. they look out for some news around. around infra struck chumplee infrastructure. >> now, china agains -- again, it's back on the news ageneral dasm can they continue their development both at the same time? and that was a message from the premier league. he's been asking questions. the conclusion of a 12-za

ational people -- 12 day pnl people's congress. it was interesting. he talks about the ability to really sort of bolster this situation. he has measured. what did you take away from it? hat does that mean to you? >> i think "balance" is a very interesting word. because i try to balance or rehead it. he said both there are difficulties and also hope in this economy. he said there will be ups and there will be down. ottke, there will be ups and there will be downs and there will be difficults and hope. he says he's going to find innovative measure to quope the current slowdown. his message today was to reassure both chinese and also those abroad that they have their hand on the tiller and

they are doing the right measures to solidify growth, kind of maybe put a stop to this current vowdown. he says as long as china stays the course on refer and the opening, china's economy will not suffer a hard landing. he acknowledged there will be some ups and downs, man. but they will push ahead with those painful reforms of bloated efficient and unprofitable enter prizes. without having the further case yoss that could cause a slowdown here. >> these events anden the questions their highly critted. i love the one that said be open. did he reach time-out you? >> well, i lost your question a little bit in some static. but let me just highlight some of the surprises because this is highly scripted press

conference they were approved by the sensors if you will and pretty much doing this when he is already on methods. >> he broke some news. perhaps they're going to do a be good job. he also surprised by saying weighing in on the u.s. presidential campaign saying the election process so far. it won't matter on china-u.s. relations and whoever wins the chouse. >> great job. steven angle in beijing. let's bring in simon derrick he's the chief strategist. he talked about innovative measure. you have to do it with an open pack.

but today is by innovative measures. because you're seeing some r juwan as well. the biggest loss since january. say the k it's fair to depression within china is moreless worse. lose to 100 billion animals. it doesn't really feel. as we see in taken place. so i don't think this is about renewed outclose take him from china. i think he's rather more to find out that it works. and it's a little more free floating and volatile. so i think the -- i don't think that what we've seen here is a

renewable of china. question and i i think she said how do you play china. >> if you're up against toe bin, you will not damage it. you have got to live vicariously. and would you agree with that? would you say, i rather take a norm found. the ring it. the bob. the repeal. and treat against it in that way. >> the most important thing i wouldn't do is get involved in the hong kong dollar. because a lot of people made tv about -- this is live and who ear something i prepared earlier. i'm going right. obvious lip you've got a memory too. these are the spikes. people said the hong kong dollar peg was going to go.

we've got to right. so we're back in the bomb. anna's hair. >> here. you get these bursts of volatility. theas will generated by a said policy as well. he's strange man. they've always held the bag and they come to -- as long as they want. >> i'm not going to to do bag. i would pay the ultimate. trying to send their winnies. well, that's been on a -- >> exactly. >> the fact that oddsie is coming back. i think it's a great -- to recover the sensory or maybe that's not true. i've got another chart for you

which is the iron. they're doing things like this. you've got to hoe fell for star wars. you've got cloin national. written.is a piece you aren't -- hair.t tells you may make sort of could be the most vase mating piece. this comes right back to our show. about people acusing china of current manipulation. well, if donald trump is trying to do that, the only thing he's capabling. we would be able to find more campaigns. they are going back curious -- plus, first time anybody -- don't rhett the facs get in the way of a good story. if you vice president had enough, we are 26 minutes into

countdown. up next --

brussels is k4r7b30 in -- 7:30 in brussels. good morning. >> u.s. presidential hopeful hillary clinton has tight ed her grip on the democratic nomination with sweeping wins in florida, ohio, illinois and north carolina. meanwhile republican frontrunner donald trump secured a victory n florida but was blocked in ohio. marco rubio suspended his campaign after losing in his home state of florida. remier league, ca ching says the performance is diverging as

challenges rise and global growth slows. lee held the news conference to end the people's congress. beijing will employ innovative means to support the economy. the bank of japan says it has room to lower interest rates even further, governor kuroda said that theoretically the bank could cut interest rates to 0.9%. japan remains far from the bank's 2% inflation target. and most analysts see additional stimulus ahead. belgian prosecutor said one person was kill and four police officers wounded in a counterterrorism raid linked to the november terrorist attacks. one suspect is on the run after exchanges of gunfire. the paris attacks are planned and carried out by a group based in the belgian capital. it's not known if the key

suspects were the target of this raid. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by our 2400 journalist, now, you can find more stories at top go. >> thank you very much. let's get straight into our chart of the area. simon derrick is still with me. guy, good to see you. what we've got is the a.p.i. data which is still rising. the pace is not a tactic. changing, maybe beginning to slow. the e.i. data will be here later on today. but it was the first time we saw that slowdown.

we're getting jeff perry a little bit later on. he thinks that the move that we've seen very much overdone, this bounce back in the proudful cruz. >> do they think that low point -- it's got to be a surprise story. this comes back to the kind of inventory bill. but what else is going on to drive him higher? past , ok, over the decade it's a reflection of his opponents as much as anything else. now, teresting pits about he's for the first time doing that. because clearly he spends that much time. ook at the recovery. japan has gone to negative territory. deeper. could go

what if people got to do this. hey're going to buy things -- >> it doesn't imply to all of the same way because there is a cow. >> the curve is important. but if you look, it looks like you're back in the 2007. astonishing rallying go. has nothing to bo with the global economy. oil goes from $60 to 149 fortunes in the ball rell. . that. introduce and they go for $100 a barrel. big monitory policy. the huge impact on all demands. the oil price collapsed. so yes, it's interesting that this is taking place in an

environment where the feds are fighting. t i've got so many other strategies. >> we'll see you at 7:30. let's get straight down to anna who is at westminster. of course, it is osborne's budget day. anna, take it away. anna: let's get right straight into the conversation. our first guest first here on bloomberg. what does he want to see from chancellor? what does that mean? >> it's clear that confidence is taking a knock at the moment. make way.sking him to the various businesss will contend with the cost to offer

enrollment which kicks in over the next 12 months. all of which are coming up the same time. aroundn we have the idea tax details. don't miss this opportunity for taking positive steps to totally reform business rates which is is archaic. it's no longer fit for purpose. it's the only one they raised before you even sell your first pound of services. >> the trouble the, you call him to be bowl. . but at the same time there's this referendum looming. he's mindful of those that he can't and that's the electorate. you might therefore bonn the hooks for more changes than that , than you anticipated it.

>> he needs to bury mine. this is the first real project since the election last may. he has the opportunity now to make time to be bold on business rates reforms, look at it in the way that we've proposed by excluding all of those businesses for the ratable value as the first step. i know there's a huge impact on all small businesses. >> tax implyfication has to stop. and they pull off some very healthy proposals for this. you think this might expect. the political reality that he might feel he's a little boxed in there or maybe business needs to reign back his expectations. >> if he doesn't raise the opportunity, he should be mapping out the timeline over the parliament when these forms cannot take place.

>> do you think -- all members are clear act is that they need independent information. fsb will report more businesses right at the heart of the debate as this referendum progresses. >> you've said that -- you said you told your members and they're trying to find out what they want. what they really want is more information. >> what about a stance. are you guys taking -- >> we don't say constitutional positions. all members very clearly told us hat they wanted last awe tom. . the prime minister came back from russ sells. it's independent fact. >> when we look at what the businesses wants. about the e.u. would that be a fair statement? >> i think it depends on whether or not you're already engaged

with him. ex-forcing forecast. and whether it doesn't matter and 1/4 of our members say it doesn't matter either way. -- varies ious across the region. >> thank you very much for joining us. bright and early here in westminster. >> anna, thank you very much. let's see where what that chancellor has got in store for us. he's the chief current -- you'll get plenty of chances to talk about the dollar between ny and that presidential election. and we're going to live through barack fast. >> you go get talk about sterling. what i've done is i dumped him because you actually think that this is a slightly different story to everything else that's

going on. certainly has been under pressure. that's our jumping off. >> i mean, i think people want o know or the e.u. ref ren dom story. it's been about mr. carnie and mr. osborne. all of a sudden we know how it's going to be this year. for the second part has been over the left court. -- >> i'm going to interrupt you momentarily because redheads trump both you and it. >> she needs to hit a shir. this is another sheriff. and don't forget part of the discussion that we had here is the only thing that was supporting the u.s. equity market. so far this year are levels that we haven't seen since 2007. here's the latest trade to be

announced. it is trade. good news if you're a share howleder. we'll see if he continues -- >> the guy -- that's the negative impact. you can birth the money for three. it's astonishing, isn't it? >> but to the point that we're talking about him. and he's being pressured by a rather more real things and it would simply be more of a referendum. south african rounder. as the committee currency high yield in come si high yelled for you. they represent as on theishingly good value if you look over time, actually, yes. it does have a name for it. you know, they have -- try to -- precious metal project. >> i looked at this video.

>> and we all go . but when you look at what osborne has got to do. by the end of 20-2. it's going to be around $1 billion. he's fitting really what he wants to do -- that's not current. this is economy is growing. we are one of the strongest in the g 7 we are a tempered level of growth. they said let's have a double brag system. >> we would get a much loter sterling and that would be all ride for the all-girl economy. >> i think we already got to the votest. secondly, we haven't price though in an index. 2010, 201.

it really did improve it. . i was the mid of the year. so maybe that's not the perfect mention. but i'm not that certain message. he said steve devaluing your growth for being is the best way possible. >> they're all raised into the bottom. the other dynamic is we've seen a sh rick whether it's real or just by numbers. but the market is moving from a 10% property to over. here in the united states. >> could we be pushed through the same gift. >> i put it less than 20%. and i think simply because it's considered those inlflation refrexes. we've already discuss that.

and she decided to come back. i don't think that's going to be well -- hold that thought. he gives yule the introductions, doesn't he. up next are russia with law. >> we have an exclusive interview with the c.e.o., it is herman quest coming up next.

manus: you're looking at a 90. iful mid tds 2:47. t is 6:47 on prime time. time for bloomberg. provider ng to data eureka adds, they outperformed

their european and american counterparts have lost 6.6 pst as the region tries to market. morgan stanley has lost three emerging market bond traitors to competitors. they sometimes leave. so they're want to find better pay eppings where. they declined 12% last year to $16 billion. sharp shares have slumped more than 8% as foxe said to be further i can laid. sources say it's all for an auditor. > sharp agreed last month to a $57.3 billion. but that was completely delayed. -- jose cue wembo has

started talks with banks in mexico. the company hay sell shares later this year or early in 2017 and could raise up. 750 million, jose cuevas failed it more than 30 prds. up 20-15. and's your bloomberg business fan. >> thank you very much. the probably of a fed rate hike in june, it's about 50%. and just below 80 for december. you're looking at some of the various elements that are affecting sentiments. what are they? >> i'm starring with the u.s. matter con diction. this attracts the financial market thre. you can see the small drop there. guess what, this index has turned positive for the first time this year.

now, back of america analysts said they've been closely linked. so investors are watching this closely. the problem of us say no rake high. now that we've terned po as you've just said that probability is almost 80%. this measures the strength of data relative to analysts' forecast. high. 82016 we're at minus five. that's rizzfrn a an eight blow snow. so we all see an improvement there. and finally these are break event rates. u.s. inflation expectation the bond market projection of inflation. the one year has risen to 1.7% that's up from 1.9% in the

middle of february. t only have short term expectations but the shorter turn is higher than the longer term projections. you should have a 10-year and 30 year that supports the argument for more imminent tie to policy. >> thank you very much. let's talk about the -- one of ing policies, rm we've rallied over the 90 days and the head of large east bama. and in an exclusive interview -- why does ryan think it's likely to happen? and why stronger currency is a good thing. >> for russian expert, the current situation is very good.

but if you speak about modernization, matt matically people think you must buy different currency. it's true. it's between mother organization. and the production cycle and expert in this. we need to find the right balance between lee and we have different opportunities and problems. it will be more convenient for the company. ate badgerton, for the old players. >> so you would like to see it market? >> i think it's two weeks but will we see 60? >> the situation in the old market will be more stable.

tomorrow they were told that come the -- go hard and in this -3, it'scan see it by 66 really good. >> so if you're a foreigner now is the time to face russia. >> so 60 would be good. so says that the feed. let's bring in simon derek. it's fantastic, suspect it that you call it for 60 until the dollar. and they probably quick like that but this is a over the past month. but it's just beginning to falter as that oil price -- as people reer value waits -- are we at the top of the oil rally? >> it comes back. it's an oil price. and an. from the demraps 2014.

and the reason -- in russia the currency is a free float. so what we're really getting into the brown area. the fed stories are going to play into and maybe a little bit of the reason why we stabilize. it's because people are re-evaluating what the feds are going say with him. >> that was going to get a poster for them. we've got other central banks had that -- let's say the bank of japan and that search for a carry is going help and help it. >> it's interesting you mentioned something that i have. it's not going be drawn so far. we have the negative .5%. talk it d be able to

didn't know -- >> but they're going to do more. >> what is interesting things is eat and it was pretty exclusive in his criticism of the move in january saying that's about the. we don't point to the euro. and it seems to me that right now in a world where we've got a goingou know, 1/3, you're to have increased pressure for the bank of japan to do more. >> but they'd think would bring anticipation. >> those are the last three o four six months. they've been behind the curve. and that's why the yen was hosting them because they haven't done enough and that he would do it earlier. >> there's no criticism. there's the h e.b. at net active-point 4.

they would argue that the swiss and the ric sploss. er i think that they're. i think that -- we know about the switch. this is really about trying to febbed off. your is going to help. why the finger can't be pointed he's astonishing. >> talking about khan canada very briefly. he's going bonn the watch. $30 million in terms of his exit. . why are we at the top of oil? >> i think that we probably could gate to 4545, 60. >> it's way like it. >> very much very much. you can stay with bloomberg because we have the exclusive. it is the interview you simptly don't want to miss. the prime minister, justin

trudeau. we're going to get the strategic revee view. some say it's one of the best? the world. >> you stay with me. manus: donald trump it's a

speed bump named ohio. the fomc in focus. the u.s. federal reserve is expected to postpone tightening and reduce expectations from future rate hikes. downs, that is what china's premier says is in store for this country in the first press conference of the year. and the u.k.'s budget. they are delivering a fiscal plan against the looming

european membership vote. welcome to "countdown." i manus cranny. let's get you breaking news. what we have here is of course, a deal in the brewing for the lsc. i am having a little problem with my terminal. carlsberg is also coming through as well. they have a new strategy. a new strategy coming through oerse, we deutsche b also have some breaking news coming through. let me get that for you. you know what, let's stick with the strategic review at the moment. these are the first mines coming

out -- lines coming out from carlsberg. they are transforming the russian business. that is the breaking news from there. let's tell you what else we have got coming through from deutsche boerse. as well as the lsc. let's give you a couple key facts. 54%sche boerse will own of the combined company. it is a confirmation. deutsche boerse and the lsc will strike a deal. that is the breaking news. let's get a little bit more analysis on the carlsberg story tonight. joining me is duncan fox. has been where they have aimed to expand the business, but they have run into speed pumps and terms of currency and regulation. so, the continuous improvement of return on investment capital, we know they have identified

this as last year -- the new ceo had managed to make substantial write-offs. europe is where premium i isation is. what do you reckon on those top lines? >> they all seem to make complete sense. was around 45%, if you go back five or six years. clearly, the economy has a load of problems and the ruble has not helped. it is a very big beer market. so, they are actually stabilizing, even if the future does not make sense. asia is clearly where growth in the beer market is currently. ratio ise dividend 50%, but the debt. >> we don't want to make many

acquisitions in the short-term. manus: it has to be returned in the form of buybacks and extra dividends. >> we could possibly make deals with asia. they have to improve the underlying performance. i think they are doing the right thing. manus: thank you very much. let's return to the deutsche boerse story. they are undergoing a merger of equals. deutsche boerse is restructuring around 450 million pints. the combined brew will have its headquarters in london and frankfurt. headlined asanner a merger of equals. i have never seen this in 30 years, a merger of equals, but that is what they are billing it as. and donald brydon will become the chairman of the group and the combined group.

ceomr. candida will be the of the combined group. donald brydon is the chairman and we will have a new ceo of the combined group. e, itrms of deutsche boers has consented to certain measures. the way it will pan out in holding is that lse holders will of thewith around 45.6% vehicle. deutsche boerse will be -- and this is where the irony is not -- 54% of they holdings. neira.rame is no nejra: the holders will hold about 54.4%.

we are told that donald brydon, the london stock exchange chairman, will become the chairman of the combined group. the group will maintain its headquarters in london and in frankfurt. this is the third time of course, that deutsche boerse has actually sought to buy the london stock exchange, and this is since the turn of the century. there were previous deals in 2000 and 2005. the run-up was pegged as the biggest deal between market operators since november, 2013. manus: the big issue, of course. will there be any trumping, or as it were, coming from ice, who have intimated that they wanted to see what would be offered before they would consider what they would do. deutsche boerse is coming in before the put up and shut up agreement. we will have to wait and see. this sounds like a very locked in deal.

the shareholders must be behind it. cost energies over a three-year period -- they really are lining up their ducks. they say they are going to close this deal by the end of 2016, during the first quarter of 2017. and deutsche boerse's board is recommending acceptance after the review. this is quite a substantial agreement in terms of the body of the text as well. nejra: the ice was contemplating making a higher offer for the lse, but we have not heard anything on the front. look at this alliance between lse and deutsche boerse. it means the company would have a dominant position in europe, for which it could also expand into both asia and the u.s.. what it would be is a powerhouse for clear derivatives in europe. that is where the real

business is. the clearing business is where the greatest impact is certainly going to be felt, in terms of putting these two together. poundsse tonight at 29 and six pence. you are looking at the highest close since 2001. an absolutely blinding job in terms of delivering value, extracting value. nejra, thank you there he much. let's get up to speed with the first word news. presidential. hopeful hillary clinton has tightened her grip on the democratic primary nomination florida,ping wins in ohio, illinois, and north carolina. securedrump meanwhile, a victory in florida, illinois, and north carolina, but was blocked in ohio by governor john

kasich. senator marco rubio suspended his campaign after losing in his home state of florida. president wicca chung says china's economic performance is divergent as challenges rise and global growth slows. he held a news conference to end the national people's conference. he says while there will be ups and downs, beijing will employ innovative means to support the economy. the bank of japan says it has room to lower interest rates even further. governor kuroda told parliament that theoretically, the bank could cut interest rates to -0.5%. left policy unchanged yesterday. japan remains far from the bank's 2% inflation target and analysts see additional stimulus ahead. build prosecutors say one person was killed and four police officer's wanted in a counterterrorism raid linked to

the november paris attacks. at least one other suspect is on the run after exchanges of gunfire in brussels. investigators say the paris attacks were planned and carried out by a group taste in the belgian capital. it is not known if the key suspect was the target of this raid. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on bloomberg go. manus: it is fed day on top of deals day, on top of budget day, on top of interest rates from the bank of japan day. and economists and the markets are not certain -- will be are certain we won't get a hike today. they are less certain in terms of the detail. joining me now to discuss the potential is richard jones. my favorite function on , i love it.

let's explain what we have got here before we get into the nuances. thosellow dots represent planted by the federal reserve in terms of where they think interest rates will be by the end of 2016. you are looking at the green line. they expect rates to be around -- i am going to cash up and roundup, 1.4%. the market however, is more skeptical. they don't think we will get to 1% by the end of 1%. richard, dots go, where do you think we will get to? richard: if you look at one month ago, we had -- i guess it was february 11. we had oil bottoming out and stocks bottoming out. yellen was speaking before congress. are on a tearocks and oil has pushed considerably higher. financial conditions are not as tight as they were. realistically, what i think will be interesting tonight about the

language is, do we hear language remiss in of the december statement after they hiked rates, or do we hear something more cautious, which we heard from yellen? manus: the balance of risk in december when they hiked rates was balanced in the run up to that. the several meetings before that, it was nearly balanced and in january of course, they dropped balance. it is going to come down to that perspective. is the fed thinking that short-term? fed is: i think the reacting to what they see as a pretty challenging global environment. at the end of the day, i think december -- and with thy lot of volatility in markets after they hiked rates in january into february. if you look at the -- i see you bring up that. there is your graphical representation. manus: i know you like a bit of

work. we don't want to upset the bloomberg first word, boys and girls. richard: you can see from that that we have a hike pretty much nailed on. above 70% the fed is come to bullets. we have that by the end of the year. one definitely, maybe two. odds were very low one month ago. we had virtually nothing priced in. manus: there is december, right? richard: correct. manus: you can see that probability ramping all the way up. the entire perspective has changed, as and it? -- hasn't it? richard: it has. it will be interesting to see if they are upbeat or cautious. there was something on the terminal the other day -- and they actually looked at the number of times the dollar was mentioned. manus: in the last 12 months,

there were 20 mentions. richard: the dollar is an interesting thing. this time last month, it's often a little bit. that is another reason financial conditions are as tight as they were in the beginning of february. manus: did you buy a new car this month? richard: i did not. manus: european car sales rose 14% in february, the 13th consecutive month of gains. w'we had people buying cars for the 30th consecutive month, but they are not buying as many bmw's. stay with bloomberg tv throughout the day. special coverage from the fed -- of the fed, i should say. p.m. andstarts at 6:00 it is of course, what yellen and her cohorts have to say. coming up, clinton titans are grip. trump hits a speed bump.

it is named ohio. rubio exits stage left. the very latest on the u.s. election. that is next. ♪

manus: you are looking at a live shot of the city of london. let's get you up to speed. the european equity markets are set to open. we will get a rise and equity markets. montanez up by 1/4 of 1%. 1/4 of 1%.s up by are set equity markets for a slightly higher open. we will see what the early calls are, in terms of deutsche boerse and the lse. vw is losing a little bit of market shares. of 1%. is up 1/8

let's look at your risk radar. inventory came in and the expanded at 1.5 million barrels. that was last week and the api institute also did report on tuesday a gain. production. mr. crowe to made statement -- mr. kuroda made statements. government eye on bonds. see the dollar strengthening against the dollar yen. dollar-rand as well. markets, are your slightly better open on equities and the dollar-yen. let's get to bloomberg first world business flash.

reporter: good morning, hedge funds in asia have had their worst start on record this year. , whichian hedge funds outperformed the european and american counterparts in 2015, have lost 6.6% today as the stock markets plunge. the biggest tequila producer, jose cuervo, is said to have inrted talks with an ipo mexico. the company may sell shares later this year, or in early 2017. jose cuervo sales surge more than 30% in the first three quarters of 2015. deutsche boerse and lse have agreed on terms of a merger of equals. shareholders will hold just under 55% of the new company. holders will own just over

45%. stay with bloomberg for more on that story. we speak to the ceo in a bloomberg first at 11:15. that is your bloomberg's nest flash. the corner of that deal is the merger of equals. they are offering you, the people who use these exchanges, better levels of margin, more competitive levels of margins. there would be synergies of approximately 450 million euros. they would be headquarters here in london. this is the deal the market has been waiting to hear about. of putting those exchanges together, where they can deliver much better and much more competitive rates of margins to the institutional investor. that is a conversation you simply don't want to miss here on bloomberg tv. let's talk politics. hillary clinton tightened her

grip on the primary nomination with wins. donald trump secured a victory in florida, illinois, and north carolina, but he was blocked in ohio. governor john kasich. megan, let's put this in perspective. how does tonight change the race? megan: it changes the race in a few ways. they keep john kasich in the race. he was going to have to exit if he lost ohio. he said that several times. also, we saw marco rubio, the favored choice that had run a disappointing campaign -- he exited after a huge loss to donald trump in florida. the dynamics in the republican race is down to a three-man race. and how this plays out is still quite unpredictable. we don't know if donald trump will be able to amass the 1237 delegates he needs to win outright.

or, can some strategy between ted cruz and john kasich block him? on the democratic side, hillary clinton had a huge night. she won four states. , we arehave won five still waiting on missouri. this is a big comeback for her after last week's surprise upset for bernie sanders. manus: thank you, megan. let's get straight to anna edwards. she is down on westminster. a very good morning to you. take it away. anna: thanks very much. chesler george osborne will deliver his budget at 12:30. i can pleased to say that the director of economics joins us here to talk about that. i spoke earlier to the federation of small businesses. they said they wanted the chancellor to be bold, but they

did not want any more burdens on business. what do you want the chancellor to deliver today? >> i think the business voice is unanimous on some of this. we want the chancellor to address the growing burden on businesses. for us, one of the main things he has an opportunity to do is modernize the business system. at the moment, the burden from the is set to grow by 5 billion pounds. that is because this is in line with the retail prices. this is growing in line with consumer price index. there will be more controlled by some of the local authorities, but the broad principles are still within the treasury's gift. it is important they look at the system and modernize it and also, look at some of the smaller properties. some ofht want to move

those out of the system altogether so we can have smaller businesses expanding and growing, creating the jobs we need. anna: the brexit vote looms large on the horizon. you are campaigning on this. you were campaigning on this many months ago, or to you? you aren't on the fence, like many. >> we are not a campaigning organization. what we have done is a big consultation of our members about their views and it is clear from that that 80% of our members think it is better for jobs, prosperity, and growth if the u.k. is part of the european union. anna: what about your members who want to leave? what is it that makes them want to take that stance? >> i think some businesses have concerns about some of the overall amount of regulation within the european union, but i think it is important and we will continue to reflect some of

their views as well. that is why we push for more modernization of some of the regulations we see here in the u k it is important to remember that the eu is not a static organization. it is also looking to modernize. bcc, he used to be at the of course. he used to say that we are in oanger of speaking to negatively. if it does happen, people will assume the worst for the u.k. economy. and that is a disservice. cbi is we can do as the reflecting the views of our members. it is clear from some of our members that they have real concerns about what it would mean for trade and for investment. that is what we need to reflect. anna: thanks for joining us in the cold. manus, back to you. manus: anna, thank you very much.

minister isnance currently a labor advisor. the lse and deutsche boerse have announced a merger. ♪

manus: welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down to the european open. i am guy johnson, along with hans nichols over in berlin. how many hike? four or is it three? the markets are looking for clarity from the fed. deutsche boerse and the lse agreed to a merger of equals, but who is getting the better deal? we will speak to deutsche boerse 's ceo, karsten kengeter.