good afternoon. i'm scarlet fu. alix: i'm alix steel. here's what we are watching at this hour. stocks drop around the world as the dollar extends its gains into a fifth day. the easter vacation looms. scarlet: copper prices have climbed 5% this month. one analyst says that relationship with oil is about to decouple. alix: the second smartphone revolution is underway. delivering essential services to people who did not have them before. how will small businesses cash in? torlet: let's first had over the markets desk where julie hyman has been tracking the trade. the trade has been slow, but there is a direction to this. julie: a downward direction, for sure. a holidayp with

shortened week. trading binds have been lower than the average. them come weighing on industrials as well. because of the losses we have seen this week, we have all three major averages now in the red for the year to date. 500 wasvery in the s&p short-lived. here is an interesting chart coming to us from the bloomberg. one of the folks at bloomberg noted the pattern we've seen in msci world index thus far is very similar to the final six months of 2015. those are in white. from november until now is in blue. a very similar pattern we have seen, a drop, then a recovery

and now, potentially, another bumpy period. coincidence,a cool maybe not, that we've noticed in the charts. commodities and focus again. julie: commodities in focus, certainly. they've been playing into that chart and what we've been seeing this week and today. the dollar, it's recovery of the past several sessions -- it is not up today, but still up nonetheless. oil prices continue to sell off. we are seeing oil go deep belief -- more deeply below $40 a barrel. $39.27, down more than 1%. prices also declining with the strength of the dollar.

not that much weakness in gold. if you look at the weekly performance, it is more dramatic. alix: let's go to the bloomberg first word news. the new york stock exchange, nasdaq, bank of america, capital one all targeted by iranian backed hackers according to the justice department which says cyberattacks incurred that occurred over an 18 month -- cyberattacks occurred over an 18 andh period between 2011 2013, targeting victims in the financial sector. >> we have unsealed an indictment against seven alleged experience hackers employed by the islamic revolutionary got -- hard court -- islamic revolutionary guard corps.

they conspired to conduct a series of cyberattacks against civilian targets in u.s. financial services industry. costing the victims tens of millions of dollars. says theetta lynch attack prevented hundreds of thousands of customers from accessing their accounts. in michigan voting to extend emergency aid to keep the ailing school district open for the rest of the appeared -- for the rest of the year. it was approved on a 29-27 vote. the gop controlled house will vote later today. president obama and the argentine president visited the monument dedicated to the victims of state terrorism. it contains the names and ages of 20,000 victims of argentina's so-called dirty war which

occurred under the country's former military leadership. the nfl used flawed data for concussion research which ultimately downplayed the long-term effects of head injuries according to the new york times, which is reporting -- league failed to improve proof more than 100 concussions. travelers trying to fly out of denver facing long lines. a spring blizzard shut down the airport and closed hundreds of miles of roads. people were forced to sleep on the floor and return home or try again on another flight during an already busy spring break travel week. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton.

scarlet: we turn our focus now to the u.s. economy. the s&p 500 will revisit its highest and analysts are underestimating the strength of the u.s. economy. he spoke about how high he expects the stock to rebound. >> we have a lot of uncertainty still in the markets. the u.s. market is still very strong, there will be strong gdp numbers overall for the u.s. economy this year. even though there has been a pause here after mid february or so, we think the market in the u.s. has a good ways to go. we have some bumps. the bar taking a bit of a pause here. -- people are taking a bit of a pause here. times earnings for the s&p 500. thennot reconcile that with

amount of pessimism i hear from people sitting around his desk. isn't overvalued? -- is it overvalued? robert: we think the u.s. economy is more strong and robust than people give it credit for. we think we will see a benefit pick in the second half of this year. the fed will be moderate and what they do, maybe a rate hike in june, maybe one later in the year. we could go back above the s&p highs we've reached before. we don't think it is overvalued. jon: a lot of people will come on and say we go into cash. can you afford that? robert: it is tough at the moment. we see this as a buying opportunity.

if you think you are going to have a bump or some debt, we use that as a buying opportunity to buy stocks that are undervalued. europe is an even better opportunity in terms of taking advantage of some things as well. nnie: you seem to be speaking very broadly about the indices. saying it isote not a bull or bear, it is a buddy market. it pops in and out but not going anywhere. -- bunny market. it hops in and out but is not going in record robert: we would like to see inflation pickup. we think manufacturing is going to pick up a bit. some people think there is a recession ahead. that is not where we are. those are the vote -- factors we

look at. here.i have a chart you say the market is not overvalued. we are not even back to the mean here, the blue line over the last 16 years. what other factors do you look at when you are trying to figure out where we should see s&p price earnings valuation? the historical mean is not the most important measure of whether we are over or undervalued. robert: history is certainly a part of it. graphs like that are important and useful. we also look at the factors going on right now. what are people's other options? to be in the fixed income markets, things like money markets, there is not much there for investors overall. there's not a lot of other options.

many of the economies around the world are struggling. is going to have its share of problems, although we think it will end up doing pretty well. it is in part consumer confidence, manufacturing, demand, consumer spending, a number of different factors. we think there are people coming into the workforce that have not been coming in before. it is a wide range of factors we look at. earnings had not been that strong but we think those will pick up. overall, we think it there is fundamental strength in the economy come and we do think that come a think there is a lot of room for the equity markets to go. copper and oil typically move in tandem. could that relationship becoming too and and -- to an end? ♪

julie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." i'm julie hyman with today's metals bulletin. isassium, an element that considered to be a metal. we are watching it today and some of the companies that mine it. among the companies that provide potassium for fertilizer. the central asia assault basin that stretches across a large portion of asia had potentially contain more than 39 billion metric tons of potash resources. that's according to the usgs.

that could put pressure on potash prices. they've already been under pressure. along with the rest of the commodities index. are agricultural chemical makers, down 29% over the past year. companiesk at the that provide a lot of the north american supply, potash accounts for the largest percentage of supply, 32%. these are the companies that are the most affected by changes in potash or potassium pricing. alix: i just learned something new about commodities. that does not happen very often. things a lot. -- thanks a lot. for 30 years, prices of copper have been highly correlated to oil. i'm next guest says this relationship could be coming to an end.

scarlet: talk about the correlation between oil and copper. alix: as demand growth picks up, both prices move higher. why do you think that will decouple right now? >> if we look at that relationship in the past 15 , the take for take up and down, copper is tethered to the oil price. and 25 between 15 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold. technology is not a friend to the oil and gas business. with innovation, conservation, adoption, use less oil. with technology, we are able to extract more oil -- the cleaner and greener we create energy, the more that is utilized for copper. scarlet: perhaps over the longer-term.

what will be the immediate catalyst? >> yesterday, we saw oil go down 4%, copper down 3%. this will decouple when it decoupleds. -- when it decouples. this is eventually going to have to come home to roost. i don't think copper has traditionally been hypothecated with golden oil. these relationships will eventually have to break down and we will go -- see the traits go from london to -- the trade going from london to the shanghai futures exchange. this yellow line is the inventories, huge decline right there. the white line is shanghai futures exchange copper come copperries have built --

come inventories building quite a lot. hard to find end-user demand strength to account for the inventory build in china, leading many to think this is just financing and it will unwind. >> what have we seen? copper wasdemand for just a whisker under 23 million tons. the market is very balanced. theselways a question of shadow warehouses and how much copper is physically in china. need about 50 million tons of copper in the next five years. the demand last year was still up. when you look at it from that context, why is this? the changing energy mix. alix: this is all property sales there? >> not exactly. it is power. they have a capacity of 1400 electrical power gig what's --

when arizona five will be wind gigawatts-- 1400 , 175 will bewer wind and solar. people don't realize the ways they are creating, utilizing and transferring energy. more and more buses. scarlet: thank you very much. come in theahead mobile revolution is moving from the west to the third world. ahead, the mobile revolution is moving from the west to the third world. details next. ♪

scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." alix: think the smartphone revolution is over? not a chance.

the newest technology may have started on the west coast but is now moving to the third world. where users will have a completely new set for -- new set of needs. joined by bloomberg tv. craig waldorf with us. we were just talking about smartphones and how this is changing all of business, any technology business focused on that. craig: some of the biggest changes outside the u.s. you have an opportunity for so many people around the world for the first time to take advantage of the internet because they get a mobile device. i'm really confident that over the next 10 years, that will be the biggest opportunity. that is the first time for most people that they will get access to the internet. here in the u.s., people have

desktops and laptops and ultimately started doing the things they had done in the desktop browser with their mobile device. ,ooking at international particularly for people taking advantage of the cloud, it is the very first time they are able to use the internet for their business or personal life because they get a smartphone. cory: i met with a facebook executive yesterday saying the same thing. most of their users are outside the u.s. greg: we are seeing unbelievable growth in invoice to go in our non-us market. indonesia, vietnam, malaysia -- even if they do not speaking this, people will download apps and figure out how to get done what they need to get done. we have 12 languages, but people often try to find the language closest to something they know. when of our product managers

just got back and she was telling us how people would tap around to figure out how to get done what they needed to get done. people in indonesia will use instagram as an e-commerce site. linkshough you cannot put in the comments, they will put photographs of what you can buy and you will get a private message of somebody who wants to buy something from you based on the picture. people go to their bank and electronically send you the money and someone wi have the product delivered. ofre is not a lot of trust the payments online but people will use social apps as an e-commerce storefront. invoice to go is the world's largest software platform for small businesses who want to send invoices for their users. we are almost exclusively a mobile app. reale use it to build estate, plumbing, electrical work, anything they need to have

done when they are focused on our cash flow, saving time and looking more professional. cory: rather than waiting for the check to show up in the mail. greg: people are using paper and pen. that's why i was talking about how incredibly important it is for people to have that first opportunity to take advantage of the internet because they have a smartphone. cory: how big is your business internationally? greg: our customers spend more than one million -- send more than one million invoices every month worth over a billion dollars in value. we have the majority of our business in the non-us market because we were founded in australia. we've always had a very global focus. cory: are you australian?

not so much. it's interesting to see the growth. -- are you seeing growth tied to these cheaper smartphones? ofg: we take advantage competition in smartphone pricing and payment pricing. we offer the ability to get paid if you are a small business through our software. you can send the invoice off our app and say i'm willing to get paid through it. paymentant the cost of processing to go down as low as possible so people can use our app. that means they will be willing to take more payments and that is where the competition is great for us. cory: you have multiple payment platforms you are able to leverage. when there is competition, we are able to bring the best prices to our customers. cory: lead to have you with us. i will toss it back to bloomberg

tv. alix: a blackout on buybacks should keep u.s. stocks in check well into april. which companies are looking most vulnerable. ♪

alix: from bloomberg world had court is new york, welcome back to this world headquarters in

new york, welcome back to "bloomberg markets." the: there are signs that same islamic state network that carried out the terrorist attacks in both brussels and paris. many lived in brussels. ministers are trying to coordinate a response to the growing wave of terrorism. -- convicted of genocide and nine other charges and sentenced to 40 years in prison. the war crimes tribunal found him guilty of orchestrating 'srocities throughout bosnia war that left 100,000 people dead. president obama is in argentina macrihe joined president at remembrance park. as than obama: it is humbling

does president obama: it is humbling to join president acri at this monument. years ago that a coup in order to do lead to the ofappearances and killings 30,000 people. opposition to free trade is a unifying concept, even in a deeply divided electorate. the latest bloomberg politics national poll found almost two thirds of americans favor more restrictions on imported goods. large majorities favored policies protecting domestic jobs over lower prices. they described the north american free trade agreement, nafta as being bad for the united states. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world.

i'm mark crumpton. , back to you. alix: we take a look at how technology is rewriting the rules of engagement around the globe. scarlet: an inventor has created exoskeletons to help paralyzed people walk once again. one of new zealand's most adventurous and affable inventors is a scottish import named richard little. >> there are five milling people around the world who could benefit. >> use one of two engineers who bionics -- rex bionics. .> my best friend was diagnosed wheelchair.a we spent three years in the garage and got something working.

we knew then we would be able to do this. you will notice right away that it is self supported. it is the only device of its kind like that. was people who use it are spinal cord injured. it can be any mobility impairment. it will take one step and stop. if you keep holding it forward, it will keep moving forward. >> what is the red button? >> that is the emergency stop. if you move forward and let it go, that's it. that's crazy. you really don't have to put in any -- >> how great is that? do your best michael jackson impression. >> this is jerod. he lost the use of his legs in a

car accident 10 years ago and is now a rex employee, customer and test driver. how long do you use it? >> an hour day every couple of days. safe, gentle on the skin, gentle on the bones. -- it is safe, gentle on the skin, gentle on the bones. helps with alking set of issues. >> i can have a drink with my mate standing up around the bar. >> to people around the bar want to try it? >> certainly. for more on these stories in the explosion in technology all around the world, tune into

"hello world" on bloomberg television. forlet: the blackout period buybacks is fast approaching and that could make some stocks vulnerable. alix: jonathan is the chief market technician at and km talked us through the trend that we see as we head into the blackout period. >> we know it is approaching. in april, it comes into full force. it is not a sign that the overall market will weaken. we have other reasons to think that might be the case. the stocks relative to the -- tendnd -- tends to to outperform. we saw a similar situation the last two years. scarlet: companies and are these

-- enter these blackout periods every quarter. jonathan: we have not dug into whether april is more influential. scarlet: you do see this dip. jonathan: i don't know the reason for that, but it has been evident. there's a stocks have outperformed so massively in the last six weeks because that is when the buybacks are fully in -- t -- and forced e enforced. alix: express scripts, take a look at the ratio between that stock and the s&p, it is kind of ugly. jonathan: health care in general has been going from a relative outperform in the last three years to this year, a massive underperformer. we took a look at stocks that we

-- ift would underperform they cannot outperform the markets whenever buybacks are in place, the presumption is there is something else weaker there that will cause them to underperform. scarlet: it is more the technicals that are already we ak putting them in a more vulnerable position. >> health care, financials. there is a mix of a broad range of industries, but financials and health care are the two week sectors anyway. weak sectors, anyway. alix: you expect more of a decline? that red line is the linnaeus of where we are now --

jonathan: the trend has gone from relative outperform or's and has now transitioned -- outperformers and is now transitioned to relative underperformers. scarlet: you see asymmetry in this rally off the fedora 11 lows.- february 11 talk about indicators reaching extremes right now. >> we saw a 26 a rally, 13%. started to stall out a bit. we look at the spread of the s&p to the 50 day moving average. that is 6%, about as high as it gets. that is where the rally stalled in november. we saw 93% of the s&p above its 50 day moving average, another extreme. short-term, that usually

suggests it is time to pull back. alix: what is the risk short-term for the markets? jonathan: boeing happen like across the board in the last few days. been lighthave across the board in the last few days. we will see if it holds there. if it moves higher, that would change the character of what we've seen. scarlet: does that mean the rally is more durable? there was not a lot of trading heading into 2016. we didot drop off like at the start of 2016, either. >> volume generally has been declining for years. low volume on the upside is bearish or vice versa, that is what we've seen.

making the rounds today, market. bunny jonathan: we've been hopping along for two years. it will take a lot to break is out. if you want to call it that, i would stick with it. bunny isey is on -- a on. scarlet: happy easter, jonathan. blackstone mutual fund has lost its biggest basque or -- biggest backer. alix: executive compensation has been a hot button issue. scarlet: why st. louis fed president jim bullard is questioning the wisdom of the dot plot. ♪

scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." alix: let's head over to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest on this crazy high-volume day. julie: no, but there is some action in industrials today. the second is worst-performing group, but there are some movers going in either direction. was set to hold at deutsche bank, it is down 4%. the analyst said the declining asking price for one of the company's aircraft will start to impeach new orders. production might be 20% above demand over the medium-term. we are also looking at the airlines today. raymond james downgrading united

continental to market perform from outperform because of near-term headwinds on earnings because of recently for cost increases. price targetines's was cut to $55. it is trading at nearly $58 today. american had announced it would launch a profit-sharing program for eligible employees. people thought that would weigh on the share price. caterpillar shares are rising today. otr global upgraded the stock to positive from a mix. demand momentum began to build during the fourth quarter. it continued into the first quarter. those shares up nearly 2%. -- it has gotten a higher bid from a chinese

company for $31 a share. , over theonger term past six weeks or so, we've seen a bounce in distributor -- industrial distributor companies. united rental -- this chart goes back to 2011. bounce thislar group had seen could bode well potentially for the broader industrial group. that is one we will continue to be watching. eric holder shareholders have had a beef with executive composition. scarlet: there's had to address the issue after today's close. -- they are sent to address the issue after today's close. 2013 whenes back to paidck revealed they had

their executive a bonus -- back in 2012, he was assigned compensation of $17 million, which is happy for canada. middle, gold was in the of what became a five-year downturn. the company responded, they overhauled things, clearly not enough. last year when compensation came up again, we had a situation when the three largest funds raised issues with compensation and the shareholders voted against the pay resolution at the general meeting. there came out and said they would fix it. today, we will find out if they have. alix: how do you think they will be addressing today given that gold prices have been rallying? >> to have not said specifically

anything at in terms of how much they are likely to have lowered his compensation. i interviewed john thorton and february. he said that barrick had fixed the problem and that the details does would be revealed today on march 24. -- that the details would be revealed today, on march 24. reaction, we have urs market reaction after ho trade. , we will get a clear picture -- next month, we will get a clearer picture. alix: thank you for joining us today. i feel like that is where oil companies are going to be. the downturn started in gold. they are ahead of this curve of cutting compensation. scarlet: coming up on "bloomberg

markets," by the federal reserve rate projections are coming under scrutiny. ♪

alix: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." scarlet: the great dot debate. plot actually work or just bring more uncertainty to financial markets? jim bullard was asked about his distaste for the dots. we are implicitly giving some kind of forward guidance through plot and i'm wondering whether that is counterproductive at this point. alix: we delved deeper into the debate with steve matthews. , not all are dots

created equal. the most an outlier, hawkish member of the committee, he has a dot. janet yellen has a dot. we don't know who is who. scarlet: the green line tracks the median dot throughout the years. the median should not be interpreted as the committee endorsed forecast. alix: is this an issue of people just misinterpreting the dots? they could be useful but people are not using them in the right way? >> it might be a case of that. have been horrifically off the mark for a long period of time and they've always been above where the euro curve has implied for policy rates.

the dot plot, it is somewhat implied that the fed will move to curve flattening. alix: everyone wants more fed communication. i've heard there is a fan model that could happen? >> some central banks have thated fan charts alix: does not look confusing at all. is that any more useful? >> janet yellen has emphasized the range of uncertainty around the forecast that accompanied the dots. if you cannot do it through hard to believe that that fan chart will introduce more clarity. >> what you want is a reaction function. the former president of the philadelphia fed who at one time

was on the communications committee opposed that the fed layout its reaction function. -- proposed that the fed it lay out its reaction function. was that we got the same economic data, very little difference in the dots changed dramatically. we went from four hikes this year down to two. that did not make any sense. what was the reaction function? scarlet: here's my question. were the dot plots useful before we began left off? -- lift off? alix: have they passed the expiration date now that we are above the zero bound? >> i've heard that argument and the exact opposite. on an added significance once you actually hike.

hike?s the next this becomes especially acute when you are getting closer to the end of the year. it also becomes a bit of come if they do not go at this one, that means they are going at one of the next once. it becomes more technical. .- one of the next ones it becomes more tactical. mario know -- the former minneapolis fed president said has two big perception problems. participantt each should do based on their individual forecast and the second issue is that investors tend to see the dot plot as a about the trajectory

of interest rate. >> the fed has been moving gradually to more and more transparency. there has not been a single innovation that has been added or taken away. with the dots, you would have to replace it with something else because otherwise, you would just be reducing transparency. today, we will be speaking with john carlin, that is coming up at four clock p.m. -- 4:00 p.m. "arlet: why "wheel of fortune is cashing in big-time thanks to the presidential election. alix: the ceo of capstone energy will be our guest on "what did you miss?" he's the cofounder of chesapeake energy where he worked alongside

mcclendon for decades -- alongside aubrey mcclendon for decades. .carlet: volume down 21% the dow is still up. for the year, up .2%. the nasdaq now negative. financials leading the decline in the s&p. ♪

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from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, good david gura.'m u.s. stocks falling for a third straight day, the dow negative on the year right now joining the s&p and the nasdaq stocks now on pace for a five-week winning streak. then extremely disappointed, that is how wall street activist starboard calls yahoo! as it replaces the entire board, nine people, three years of investors lost patience with the c.e.o. watch out for any u.s. recession signals in friday's g.n.p. report, the government says it's not expected to be pretty in profits. first julie hyman hased