live from london, i'm caroline hyde. ♪ betty: we'll take you from new york to london in the next hour. here's what we're watching now. half hour into the trading session in new york. the janet yellen rally has resumed. the dow and the s&p hitting the highest levels of the year after the federal reserve shale -- chair expressed caution. on pay for the biggest monthly gain since october. caroline: then are bloomberg exclusive with bill about how he hopes to start economic turnaround after the nation was hit by plunging oil prices. finally here, tesla getting rate unveil its most important car yet, the model three.

feasibleost now a more $35,000, about half as much as a flagship model s. elon musk, a mass-market player. let's head to the markets where julie hyman has the latest on the markets. yet again, the fed induced rally. betty: day two of the yellen reaction here. it is a presumption of the rally a batch ofr commentary than iraq -- interrupted by other federal officials say we are not quite as dovish as all of that but janet yellen coming back and saying yes indeed we are. like thatappeared to and we have seen the rally continue across the board. i want to take a look at futures on bloomberg. probability in our model of how likely it is to see interest-rate increases at the next meeting coming up. we're looking at a low

likelihood of the rise here and i want you to know the numbers. 27.5% -- in july, 37 .6% and it is a stark difference. i will take the chart back going back to march 28. you're looking at a 10 percentage point drop at least in the probability of interest rate increases at upcoming meetings. a dramatic move in the past several days. reactioneen a dramatic to we saw the 10 year ago as low as 1.8%. definitely that lower likelihood of interest rate increases coming in. let's take a check on the u.s. dollar versus some of its main trading partners. we have been seeing weakness. that continues, the euro and the pound gaining, the dollar falling versus the japanese yen. betty: energy gains among them.

we will get inventories and about 27 minutes or for now, i will bring those numbers. if you take a look at bloomberg, we have got information-technology continuing to lead gains. a big bounce back in tech stocks. financials also bouncing back. they were weak yesterday. a quick check on apple. apple is advancing and being upgraded to outperform this morning, among other things, analysts are saying the company could adopt a new type of screen earlier. >> 100 billion euros being added to this. 1.7%. seeing up we have got miners leading the charge. yesterday, the worst performer today and over the course of the year.

oil and gas behind them. clearly, notes of caution coming from janet yellen really wedding the appetite for investors to get into equities. , trading of bound the 16 points in march. a bit of a rally despite economic sentiment on the downside. the bloomberg index, this is the economic sentiment in the eurozone. it has been going down to we are at 103, the lowest level we have the eurozone since february of last chair. a 13 month low for this. .oney going into equities similarly, significant movers in the benchmark metro. betty, you were talking about earlier. oft jump since november 2013. this an m&a play?

does it where the appetite of investors or potential buyers of its electronic unit? it is really partitioning its food retail and electronics. anglo-american america. m&a speculates about this as well currently up 13%. the chief executive setting itself up to be sold. that: we will talk about later in the next hour. let's check in on the bloomberg first word in. vonnie quinn has more from the news desk. vonnie: at a town hall hosted by cnn, donald says he does not feel beholden to the loyalty pledge because he has been treated very badly. federal court judge merrick garland is leading with two more senators today -- meeting with

two more senators today. illinois senator mark kirk becomes the first republican to meet with garland. yesterday. him the senate leadership is refusing to consider the nomination saying the next president should choose the successor to the late antonin scalia. -- thecyprus to expedite court ordered eight days detention for the 69 rolled who faces charges including hijacking, possession of explosives, kidnapping, and threats to commit violence. is said to be psychologically unstable. a bill would have strengthened the company's say it of emergency. two proposals days after the attacks in paris that left one of the 30 people dead. the united states is prepared to beef up security.

the pentagon will announce today a degree to the region in february. concerned about threats from russia. global news 24 hours a day powered by.400 journalists and news bureaus around the world. betty: thank you. it is all about the yellen effect so far. the s&p in the dow closing yesterday a 2015 hi. they are continuing to rise as julie mentioned after the edge chair struck a dovish tone. once a dove, always a dove. mom and said there is rising concern about unintended consequences of the fed. sees one more highest -- hike in the future. strategist at wells fargo investment institute. mom and brings a great point. seeing the big rally in the last

market islls you the way more sensitive to macro factors. the fed is really the only game in town? >> i do not expect it to really change. we have tried to tell the clients do not doubt the resolve of any central banks to do with they think they need to do to boost inflation and boost economic activity. since march of 2009, central banks have been played with a huge role in the rally we have seen with the s&p 500. i think central banks will continue to play a huge role. down the line, and you have been around long enough to , the central bank, the u.s. central bank always has a tough time extricating itself from an easy policy to a tight policy. it is always a bumpy road. extremely easy monetary policy now.

easy to not expect that somewhere out there, the roads would get bumpy. they: someone sounding alarm bell for a while is bill gross. after theat he wrote speech by janet yellen. the economies are at stall speeds and they have got to bump up nominal gdp growth rates or else. believes and things will go south rapidly. the emerging markets are tied to commodities and china, largely. commodity markets, it does not look like it is going to get all that much better. we are supply and demand balancing out. those countries continue to be susceptible to things like dollar-denominated debt and all of those things that are going to pop up in the issues from time to time.

will continue to have problems in at least the near term. to be a large-cap u.s. stocks. that will be the way to go. it will probably be the way to go through the end of the cycle, which has a couple more days to go. >> should i be caring about payrolls on friday when it seems janet yellen has the more global perspective on everything. >> she does have more global perspective. but the number for me, when i look at that historically, it may directionally have informed but it is not something i really count on here it if we see the 210 consensus number this friday, that is fine but i would argue 25,000 net new nonfarm payroll jobs, added one where the other there, you are in the ballpark. what i think for me is the most important number we will see, and i would have told you this

six employment reports ago, year-over-year change an average hourly earnings, is expected to come in at 2.2. that is disappointing. it might inch up a little more. fed is watching what is happening with wages. always focused on labor market and labor wages. he say we need higher levels of confidence among consumers and investments. here, 13 month lows despite the unprecedented stimulus once again unleashed by mario draghi. what county eurozone and other central banks do? >> the eurozone is gripped with a lot of political dissent and those types of things. it is tough to have a high degree of confidence.

theou have written anything equity strategist group that i work with has written over the -- afour or five years huge factor on why we have been positive on stock spirit we will see higher confidence and it has stumbled a bit lately. over the course of the next three or four quarters, you will see that inch in the right direction. it will be a bumpy road. but i think we'll see higher confidence and that will help the stock market and consumer spending. things are somewhere between ok and good but not great. >> we have got a chart that bearsyou a lot of disagree with what you just said about consumer confidence. really coming up against consumer discretionary stocks, you can see from the chart it has gone up 50% in the last three years or i want to focus on the last portion where you

see that spike that began in the latter half of last year. confident that as a consumer, it will come back. a lot are against that. >> consumer discretionary sector has performed very well since the march of 2009 lows. when i see the chart, it makes me feel better that we are overweight from the consumer discretionary. there are people betting against it and there have been people betting against the consumer for quite a long time. they have been wrong. i think they will continue to be. great to see you. thank you so much. much more ahead on bloomberg markets. candidates finance minister outlined his plan to jumpstart the economic jump -- juggernaut. a bloomberg exclusive. do not miss it next. ♪

caroline: live from london and new york, i'm caroline hyde along with betty liu. time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. is a partial victory for activist investor carl icon who has been battling aig. the insurer has abandoned the use of credit default swaps. he has argued it created the wrong incentive. focus on return equities. the company says longtime -- probably based on shareholder return. general electric's selloff of its operations continues. his sale is expected to close in the third quarter.

millennials may be able to revive the slumping breakfast cereal. the maker of frosted flakes as special k is repositioned some as a snack from the early 80's to year 2000. the sheer in the afternoon and evening has been rising. that is your business flash. where is the serial you need it? need a second breakfast. canadian consumer confidence reached a 2016 high this week after the country's new finance chief delivered his budget, let's get the details right from the source. with bill,nterview finance minister of canada. >> thank you very much peerless get straight into it. thank you.

your prime minister, my promised her as well, made a campaign candidates fiscal deficit good -- deficit at no more than $26 million. a pledge already broken by your first budget. we are here in new york city. what message does it send to investors, particularly foreign investors who you need to buy government of canada bonds? >> the message we want investors to have, the famous if we want canadians to have, is that we are focused on growth that will help canadians. the agenda is to help middle-class canadians succeed after a challenging area -- era. commitment to growing the economy, something we know will make a difference. we know investors want to see an economy that will grow at a healthy pace over the long-term

and that is what we are setting up to do. >> we are talking about canada. canada taught the english-speaking world how to be responsible and run balanced budgets. rewarded canada by restoring the triple-a credit rating. what if they do not agree? >> i think they're going to a great. what we said we wanted do, we are blessed in canada with a particularly good situation. ourave been able to lower gdp. the lowest net debt to gdp, which gives us the most capacity to make investments to grow the economy. importantly, the imf, the oecd, and g-20 countries, they are recognizing in an era of low growth and demographic change, is usinghould be doing

fiscal measures to grow the economy. we are getting international observers on board and i am confident investors in canadian be supportiveg to because we will enhance the long-term judge after he of the country. we are in fact and embracing all canle who look toward how canada be more successful in the future. we know that having not only a better infrastructure that helps people in the country, creating a more innovative environment and creating a plan for growing businesses, this will help put as a country stage that made decisions that could make a real difference. david: let's talk about the commitment to investment. the developed world is stock at interest rate at or near the

zero bound. there are questions about the efficacy of unorthodox monetary policy. is it safe to say looking at the and yourat you government believes spending is the only way to kickstart an economy at this point? >> first of all, we do not call it spending. we are making investments in the future of the country. there are places where those investments might look like spending but investment in education for indigenous people, this will help more people in the longer term. we would say we need to be doing things that are going to enhance the growth. a prescription for what we should be doing given the canadian situation. the low interest rates are capacity to make investments and the ability with a very educated arkforce to take advantage of more innovative society it is a positive thing for us. >> would help canada's growth

trajectory and for that matter the rest of the developed and developing world is other countries like the developing dates and the u.k. were not fiscally conservative? >> we recognize every country is in a different situation. our capacity is very positive. >> what i'm trying to say is what you like to see them doing what you're doing? >> we believe taking fiscal measures is appropriate in the face of the low growth environment. that is something we will be talking about at the g-20, taking in order to enhance the capacity of the country, but also to help the next generation of canadians to be more successful. that is a discussion and each country will have a different situation in terms of how they could execute on that. >> your budget has $4.5 billion on new child subsidies. his income redistribution the only way to truly address the

inequality problem? >> from our point of view, we look back over the last generation and realize middle-class generations have not been as successful. we believe finding ways to enhance the family will not only help them but will also help the economy. someone who is a middle income canadian getting on average and0 more on child benefits the way we have done this, they will put that back into the economy. good for the economy. over time, that will help the growth. we think it is about helping people and helping the next generation by having a productive economy. >> philosophically, do you agree about the point about inequality? >> we agree that having a

country that enables all people to be successful is important. if we have a country where middle-class is not able to grow their incomes, that is not ok because we are able to grow the economy and make sure it is inclusive growth and that is what we are working towards. >> a conspicuous absence in the budget -- why? is taken ahave done withat how we could deal the country broadly. in the case of the aerospace sector, it is a critically important industry. very successful. a very successful company in that. to anyone out there considering buying it, it is a great jet. putting forward on the government come on along with them, we have not finished the

due diligence yet. david: you came out of that so you understand the issues on that matter taxpayers. would you attach conditionality to financing or funding that the demolition of dual classed share structure? otherwise, they will say the canadian government is subsidizing a wealthy family that has a controlled interest in the country. >> i think canadians expect us to do our due jurrjens, to consider different alternatives and how we could make investments. consider how we could ensure we have employment in the sector, how we can ensure we continue to be successful. we are going to consider all of those issues as we go through due diligence. it is preliminary to talk about

the decisions. david: how long until the due diligence is done? >> we do not have an exact timeline. i know you would like a deadline. we think we need to work through and understand the issues. when we have results, we will come back. thank you. that is the honorable bill, finance ministers of canada. caroline: still ahead, jack lew. international sanctions are not all they are cracked up to be. ♪

caroline: welcome back. a sunny day in the u.k.. materials and energy stocks

doing the heavy lifting this morning. betty, you are live in new york. day asa rather bright well, but kind of cold here. i'm waiting for spring time to arrive and what that means for the markets, what does it mean for the energy markets as we continue to pump our houses with heat. inventories are now just out here in julie hyman has a breakdown on inventories. i believe it is the seventh week in a row we have seen a increase in the weekly inventories number. 2.3 million barrels is where they're coming. the drop of 2.5 million in gasoline inventories, and much bigger than estimated drop of about 1.1 million here. it looks like this could potentially be bullish for oil as we get the numbers. to run to the headline numbers, crude oil up two point milley --

to my e-mails. inventories down 1.1 million barrels as well. me what is going on with the oil prices in the wake of what is going out. let's look at the bloomberg here. we typically get a little more of an updated look at what is going on. now gaining some steam. we have seen a big recovery that his been going on over the past six weeks or so and the oil prices. wti climbing by more than 40% since february 11. now more than 50% since the short-term well as we have seen the ongoing climate oil prices. to give another look at what we we here for inventories, have been seeing weekly climbs for seven straight weeks but this is smaller than estimated.

betty: a bit of a mixed reaction. you saw the price of oil go down but it is now back up again. people digesting little more of what the impact is. vonnie quinn has more from the news desk. thank you. in indianapolis, prosecutors are steady to announce an hour when police officers will face charges. demar was reaching for an officer's gun when he was shot, which is to death and witnesses say he was handcuffed. proteststo massive outside police headquarters. the new push for the un's to counsel took action for his lease and this -- recent missile test. germany, u.k., and destabilizing and provocative. they say iran launched the missiles in the plans of the u.n. resolution. in the u.k., a message for david

cameron. he wants the u.k. to stay in the european union. the panel says cameron presents a prominent vision of the eu. it approach, make the case will begun for people of all income brackets. than 100y more journalists around the world. caroline. caroline: thank you. a quick check of what is happening in the market. a janet yellen fueled rally. up 1.5%, every single industry group is gaining. than resources up more five percent or look at the jump, 13% higher. with m&a speculation, the ceos really paring back, looking to set it up. at the vets, currently seen volatility coming down in the u.s.

stocks also up to a significant amount today. the euro-dollar up as dollar weakness today. of will see trading up 5/10 1%. it has been hit by concerns about the grexit. a look at money going into peripheral europe. yields coming down one point 2 -- 1.23%. the outskirts of europe as we gear up to start spending 20 billion euros -- euros. now let's get over to the u.s.. abigail has the latest live from the nasdaq. looking at two movers. abigail: tesla is trading higher after goldman sachs is saying to buy the options including the unveiling of the model three later this week. the sentiment is part of what is happening this year. a huge turnaround after the company offered a better than expected model s guide act in february, down more than 40%

earlier, and importantly, shares are back above the 200 day moving average. the last time this happened last april, the stock climbed higher by more than 25%. could be some upside for tesla. us a sense of other stocks we should be keeping an eye on. >> one stock is apple. shares are up more than 2% at this time. the stock was upgraded to outperform. he believes iphone has bottomed and year-over-year compares are looking more favorable. he believes the launch later this year would prove to be a catalyst for the stock. back inraded shares july near the top at that time saying iphone estimates appeared too high. he proved to be right on that. now there is more than a 20% upside to his price target of

$135 per share. betty: thank you so much. she 20 finance ministers and central governors will meet next month in washington. among the topics, global growth negativeometimes effect of sessions. this morning in washington, jack lew warned that the go it alone approach by the u.s. may diminish growth. aree have learned sanctions most effective education behavior when we work closely with our partners to build support. a more international support there is for sanctions and the underlying objective, the more effective they will be. betty: jack lew is also featured guest on charlie rose airing tonight in the nearly hour-long conversation. custom of the importance of global demand, and how the u.s. is faring. >> the real economy has been

moving ahead steadily. we have seen the latest gdp numbers on a macro level. we are seeing it on car sales and household formation and housing activity and employment. charley: it used to be that what business needed is confidence because they had plenty of money to spend. do you see that confidence on the part of business being willing to increase their engage in the expansion of facilities and that kind of thing? >> we're sitting here at the end of the first quarter of the year. a lot of nervousness in the markets. i think you look at the geopolitical situation, the week global demand. there are a lot of things we can worry about. you look at the u.s. economy. we have shown we have reached a level of strength that is quite

real and sustainable. he economy is 85% to mexican most is consumer driven. a strongnue to have u.s. economy. that is why i am focusing on the global situation. having a stronger global economy now is where the confidence needs to come from. charley: what do you see having inflation over this year and the next? jack: inflation depending on which measure you look at, getting closer to the 2% target people have been looking at, it is not showing any signs of exploding. i think it is a good thing. one of the problems we have in the country is the disparity of incomes and the way to solve that is for there to be some increase in wages in lower levels.

charley: you mean raise the minimum wage. jack: i think that is something we should do for the -- as a government. we have been supportive of the proposals. charley: not $15 as some cities have an post. jack: we are supportive of efforts to increase them and wait for it are supportive of actions being taken at the state local level. remainted states will one of the most powerful drivers of the economy. i have said over and over again over the last three years, the world cannot count on the united states to be a sole driver of the global economy. populations around the world, developing economies growing because of their place in the development cycle, we want to be a part of that. we want to be selling goods and services there. we want them to be abiding by the standards we think makes the

world a better place. that has the advantage of making the world more competitive. charley: one thing you constantly heard is the idea of china growth and economic growth and a five year plan, that it is not a zero sum game for the united states, that the eurozone should be invested in china's growth as an economic powerhouse. >> we have said that publicly and privately. statesn the united interest for china to do well. leads thef britain european union, what impact with that have on the chinese economy question mark jack: i do not think it would be good for the global economy. impact is partially economic of tradeof the slow and economic relationships. it is partially geopolitical and strategic in terms of holding on to unity. in a world where one of the things that drives the economy is the uncertainty of geopolitical risk, it was

interesting at the g-20 meeting, the risk of grexit was something people were talking about in a different way. is that something you can measure with an economic index, no. but is it clear that when you increase the level of unease it has an economic consequence, yes. i have seen all kinds of estimates on what it means for the european economy, europe has a hard time struggling to get to a sustainable growth anywhere near strong enough. unemployment, anything that would move that in the wrong direction would be bad for the economy and geopolitically destabilizing. breaking news on metlife. it looks like they have won their day in court, not being hyman has-- julie more on this. news foris is big

metlife. it has been fighting this since 2015, saying the government designation of it is as systemically important and significant was arbitrary and has indeed prevailed. the federal judge in washington a striking down the designation of metlife as to be to fail. it rejects the financial stability oversight council, and hasobama administration designated four financial institutions under the non-bank financial institutions under the designation. we will see what happens with the others. argued it should not be as such. is it is a financial crisis, they should see a company like metlife systemically important just as they sought tig systemically important during the last financial crisis. the court rejecting the argument. you can see the shares are surging by 6% in reaction to the

ruling. sticking on the anking theme, coming up, spectacular fall from goldman sachs. we look at how he lost his wall street perch. ♪

caroline: welcome back to bloomberg markets. over 2 billion missing dollars, $3 billion deals through a real estate project that never happened. billion in debt. this is a short version of the corruption scandal rocking malaysia. the prime minister and its economy.

the goldman banker i mentioned is now a former goldman banker. tim is under investigation by the u.s. for his role in the malaysia scandal. we are joined now live on the show. thank you. the scandal? catch us up if you will. it is an amazing scan appeared i think i have to correct and say it -- i do not believe he is under investigation. i think investigators have talked to him but they made it clear he is not a target. that being said, what has happened, it is amazing, if viewers are watching this, the -- imagine if president obama had 50 many dollars in his bank account and was in charge of a pseudo-sovereign wealth fund in the u.s. and that seems to have missing money, and on top of that, if the fund had worked with goldman sachs and goldman

got some good like $500 million for their dealings with it, that is what we are talking about and that is what happened in malaysia right now. caroline: phenomenal. talk about the political repercussions and where this goes. how much is goldman sachs embroiled in this now? are they stepping away from the employee? >> sure. is the primeing minister of malaysia, this has been a funny thing. a premise or is disputing with him over the case. what it comes down to is this issued billion dollars of debt with goldman sachs, and the idea was they would help fund local projects. they would build a huge financial district. that has not gotten off the ground. at first, people were upset goldman sachs had made so much money off of the bond yields. but that has been overshadowed

by a sense of, has money been taken, where is it. swiss investigators believe $4 billion is missing and it is worth pointing out what it says everything is above board, and the prime minister has said the $600 million was a gift from friends in the saudi royalty -- royal family. caroline: tell us about the , the malaysia's head to washington. will that be affected in any way? >> i think obama and achieve are said to be good bodies. who knows what it means for the relationship between malaysia and the united states. in the meantime, tim is an interesting figure to watch as well. this man was a serious goldman sachs star. thething we write about piece is that goldman sachs has a wonderful capacity and a lucrative capacity to mix money and power in the united states.

worldwide, it can be very lucrative but very fraught and complicated. lesser was very good at making connections throughout southeast asia where he was the chairman for goldman sachs. withan sachs connections power, it can lead to a lot of complications, as we read about. wait to readannot that in full. thank you very much for the phenomenal story. tesla is about to unveil one of its most important cars. how much is riding on the cheaper model three. ♪

betty: tesla will host its biggest unveiling ever, the release of the model three, tesla has dropped more and more expect on awhat to

project that has been a decade in the making. context is through what we now know of tesla's latest electric car. >> tesla is about to unveil its most important car, the model three. this is the big one, which will take electric cars mainstream. here's what we know so far. toexpect something similar the $70,000 model s but with fewer bells and whistles. 20% smaller than the model s. there is no word yet on whether it will have the more tightlipped mouth. model three will start at --,000 before government that is ace -- an extremely competitive price for the they will bearket competing at. tesla is promising to under miles per charge, but it might be more for people willing to

pay extra for a larger battery. tesla is designing a data re-architecture to make it cheaper. next 10k pro-dex in the years, all new cars will be able to drive themselves. therefore, you could expect the model three would probably come at least some autonomous driving, even if buyers have to pay extra to activate them. your hands on model three, you have to get online. the first deliveries will not come until the end of next year. betty: nobody has gotten to see the model. are we going to see the car we will buy or is it just a prototype? produce thehen they

final version, that is not what elon musk has done in the past. this will be close to what we will get. it will be a functional ride on it. it will be pretty close. betty: give us the sense of dates. will we hit the end of toys 17? >> that is a good question. i cannot think of a deadline he has met before. from all been saying of the executives, how this time it would be different. focusing on the model s, having people buying $100,000. early adopters, people can afford to ride -- with a delay. a much different market. they might not be willing to be as patient if there are problems with the initial rollout or long

delays. thes difficult to overstate level of interest in the car right now. when the history of the automobile has people lining up to put $1000 down on a car they have never seen before that will not be available for another 17 years -- >> who is the buyer? the buyers were like larry page, , techy people.ch for a $35,000 car, who will be buying it? >> the model three gets compared comingo the chevy volt out, another electric vehicle with a similar range. that is not the audience elon musk is shooting for. he is shooting to compete with the four, still high-end, but kind of entry luxury car. a much bigger audience. if they could get the vehicle out in time to qualify for government incentive, you could

talk about a car well into 35 -- $30,000. to own a tesla, it could be a very attractive offer. it is kind of a status symbol. thank you. thank you, tom randall. about yourrn more destination for the finer things in life. just head on the bloomberg. coming up, it is all about the european close. 600,e higher on the stoxx minus five percentage points higher. ♪

oh, hi! micky dolenz of the monkees here, getting ready to host the flower power cruise. (announcer) we're taking the love generation to the high seas and reliving the '60s. we'll celebrate that unbelievable era with the music that made it so special. there'll be over 40 live performances featuring eric burdon & the animals,

micky dolenz, the monkees lead singer and cruise host, the 5th dimension, the lovin' spoonful, rare earth, spencer davis, three dog night, and many more! imagine enjoying all that great music on the fabulous celebrity summit, leaving fort lauderdale and making ports of call in jamaica and the bahamas. you'll be back in the days of bellbottoms, peace signs, and so much more, with special theme parties and 20 fun-filled celebrity interactive events. cabins are filling up fast, so come on, relive the era you remember so well. the flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. let your freak flag fly. don't miss the grooviest trip at sea. from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm betty liu. roline: you are watching the

european close. brexit and sirens, -- concerns. betty: rx exclusive with the group executive director and how a slump and grow death global prices forcing part of india's biggest company to sell its u.k. business. is the presidency unraveling in brazil? the popularity is at record lows and is facing another cap -- coalition turning her back turning their back on her. betty: