cruise, february 27th, 2017. let your freak flag fly. don't miss the grooviest trip at sea. manus: welcome to "on the move." we are counting down to the european market open and i am manus cranny alongside hans nichols. here's what we're watching today. a reversal of fortune. the tables turned on european stocks in the first quarter. they trailed by the most since 2003. this is get another gauge of the euro area's economic health with inflation data very shortly. what will those figures reveal?

and u.k. consumer confidence stalled as the threat of brexit clouds the outlook. hans, it's a bit of a change. looking at these equity markets and we are seeing a little bit of a shine on the market. i decided to put it into emojis for you. in this rally on the quarter with the european stocks that had a poor quarter relative to their u.s. cousin but if you are underweight or disbelieving of the rally you had an angry face. if you are long on china you're still down 15%. in premarket set for a slightly lower opening with paris down by half a percent. talk we are going to

emojis. we'll talk about oil coming in. the reason that is happy is you can guess up your porsche that much cheaper. nymex there below $30 per barrel. in that same direction, also down and manus, if you are looking for a mortgage at one of your fancy either martha's vineyard or nantucket, you can borrow money cheaply. that gives you a sense of how much money is flowing into the states looking for return. let's get the latest bloomberg first word news with kumutha. -- fears of vote britain's vote to leave the european union has helped keep consumer confidence at its lowest levels in a year. and a gauge of expectations for

the economic situation over the next year with that -12 down 18 points from a year ago. blackrock is canning to cut about 400 jobs in what may be the biggest round of layoffs to date at the world's largest money manager according to people with knowledge of the matter. despite the cuts, blackrock will continue to invest in higher in key areas and expects to and bring the year with a higher headcount according to one person. donald trump has come under fire for saying there would have to be some form of punishment for women who held abortions. if the procedure was outlawed in the u.s.. that immediately angered pro-abortion supporters but trump later issued to statements clarifying his position ultimately saying it would be the doctor or anyone else who should be held responsible.

the u.s. economy will probably be strong enough to justify to interest-rate increases this year according to chicago's fed president charles evans. his comments came a day after janet yellen said uncertainty stemming from weakness abroad global news 24 hours a day powered by our way for hundred journalists and more than 150 newsrooms around the world. you can find more stories at top . the ecb gets readings this morning on whether their stimulus efforts are beginning to bear fruit. for march, iion don't expect that to climb above zero. hans is standing by. when you read into it it seems to tell a great story. it is the very paradigm of what the ecb would like to roll out across the whole of europe.

it solely driven by my household consumption of candy ahead of easter. an earliere, we had easter that showed a little bit more spending because of that and that gave the sense that some of it was driven, not necessarily upward pressure from wages, but spending which is what you want to see. great to have you with us this morning. some us like a little island off at its own within europe, germany. but as far as the ecb is concerned, today we get this reading on cpi and tomorrow qe enlarges. as you look at the euro it had its best quarter since 2011. us, what the ecb has done

is really shifted away from using qa to bring the currency down to targeting domestic environments. in the euros at 140 it's a broad-based scheme. in the move was really focused on bringing the currency down. implicit but certainly there -- certainly there. a big impact that did help with a little bit of inflation. now we are at levels where the euro is no longer overvalued. it could be cheap on some measures. environment with a global context. so now it's about directly targeting the local market that does not necessarily mean the euro can strengthen further from here. hans: why can't we take the day off? do is seeally need to how tomorrow plays out, namely, if everything is fed driven, how

the nonfarm payroll numbers come in and what will be different when they ramp up these purchases? is there enough road to run on? >> i think the fed is probably more in focus at the moment. the ecb has done its thing, it has all been announced. i think you're right that the fed is more important for now getting a better read of how quickly the fed will migrate to the rest of this year will stop we have just how much the market can be affected by the fed being seen as more dovish. number,t a decent jobs but it's not too hot, then high-yielding currencies can do quite well. >> they have cracked ahead. the whole debate about negative rates -- usually when they want to reload a dovish message they get ben wide-out and say give

the message. stopameron yesterday said, focusing on negative rates. how much lower will be ecb go? and you would maintain that there are limitations in terms of what a negative rate environment can actually do. be long dollars and short turkish lira, i am paying in effect the carry. we have always had negative interest rates. for us it is not that big a to -.4.ing from -.3 when you think about it from a big picture perspective, 25 or 50 basis points even in positive territory has a big impact on the differential. that negative interest rate story is really overplayed by the market. people saw this have a huge impact but really a 1520 point

basis cut doesn't do huge amount. i think that's the key and currencies were we've always had negative interest rates. just following up on that, there's always been this negative interest rate, what do you say -- they need to go much deeper, they need to go 20 or 30 basis points for the negative. benefit doesn't work, we can start running autopsies about negative interest rates? >> i'm saying that from a currency perspective negative interest rates do not have a bigger impact. if you want to have a massive impact on the euro, maybe you need to cut by a significant amount. when you talk about what happens to the economy, we are seeing a lack of demand and growth. will that be boosted by lower rates? it will help to ease the process

but clearly has not had a massive impact. biggerhey will have a impact. we are obviously in the realm of new policy. none of us has the exact answer of this is going to work or this is going to work, but from a currency perspective, for negative rates to work would have to be the scale of the cuts rather than just going to negative territory. around 120.we are euro sterling is not far off where we are and we will get thrown around by the brexit. it might take a little bit longer to get there but anything is possible. manus: stay with me, a lot more to get through. fears abound of brexit. how those concerns play out. and consumer confidence is shaken.

♪

"on the move,"o i am hans nichols. let's get the bloomberg business flash with kumutha. >> blackett -- black rocket planning to cut 400 jobs in what may be the biggest round of -- 3%s today according to of the 13,000 employees. despite the cut, blackrock will continue to hire in key areas and and bang for your with a higher headcount according to one person. the ceo of barclays japan is to resign in june. he was the executive who broke the news to employees in january that the bank will close its cash equity operation in japan and focus on derivatives.

his departure will leave andrew jones as the sole ceo for the asia-pacific region. talks at theded telecoms assets to the end of this weekend. they said that discussions were not advanced enough to decide during yesterday's need -- board meeting. they will meet again to take a definitive position while or ron should -- orange's management will examine the results of the talks. waiting to tell you the cpi from france and i can tell you the harmonized cpi comes in at a negative number. a negative reading of negative 0.1% which is different to the overachievement that we saw in germany yesterday. cpi year on year declined which is the same

as the last reading we had a month ago. selected the first reading, the flash reading. we will bring that to you at the top of the hour. fears that britain might vote to leave the eu have keep -- have kept consumer confidence at the lowest level in a year. their consumer confidence index stated zero. dominic browning is the senior fx strategist and joins hans nichols and myself here in london. where do we go with the brexit story? you are not allowed to call it brexit. voted toof june, we leave. first interaction, what do you reckon. >> from a currency perspective

that a very large fiscal deficit. we would say potentially 15%. on the day, 13%. >> talk to me about the u.k.. >> there are many different possible ways that the u.k. could go if it decides to leave. are we more like canada were people are speaking about being just a trade agreement. nobody really knows how it will work out. probably have a two-year period where it will have to be decided. you can envision the new environment where the talks with and the tradethly deals are nuts quickly. that is feasible but it is still quite different.

i think it will be more likely that those talks will be quite protracted and uncertainty will weigh on the economy as well. manus: all of that uncertainty talk of a 20% move, even less when the polls close. what are banks doing to position or predict this? at what point do the banks start commissioning the polls on brexit? >> when we look at how we get that number, we say at the moment the market is pricing in around a one third chance of brexit and we are seeing about a 7%-9% differential with the currency versus interest rates. currency -- sterling will be trading close to its currency differentials. another 18% move. that is where we get that number. from our perspective it is just

about saying that because of that uncertainty and the external position the u.k. is in , that is the position we think would be negative for sterling. it's not about saying in 10 years it will be terrible, it's about saying in the near term there is a lot of uncertainty and if we were to leave the don't know exactly what it would be in terms of our relationship. manus: next year you reckon the cable could rally to? >> cable should be about 155. and we have a few priced in for next year as well. what hundred 60 would be our target by the end of this year, maybe even a little bit higher. manus: thank you to dominic therefrom hsbc. in a few minutes we will open up on these equity markets. we had a rush of emerging market equities, the chinese are still

down by 15%. it is a bright and breezy day on the last quarter. not bookre long, why of profit at the start of q1. midway through, stay with "on the move," right here at london .q ♪

it is time for the battle of our charts. i will bring you something that shows what japan's indexes are doing. you get to choose the winner, you are the adjudicator, judge, jury, and executioner. we see the blue line. you see they're going down.

these outlaws with money coming out of japan and the green is money going back in. we see that it is pretty correlated except we get to the end of the year. we see the topics coming up a little bit. it brings me to this brian haywood point. the ceo of the pacific partners. he makes the case that a lot of the money leaving is dumb money. is is the red or moneyl the outflows dumb leaving japan or are they had of the curve? tennis, let's see the gold chart you have. colorsi have the fancy that you've got. dominic has an idea of where that will end up in willis greece you to squeeze you driver the end of the show.

the money is pouring at the fastest pace since 2009. this is negative rates. where you want to draw that line. $7 trillion of sovereign bonds are not in negative territory. gold bullion has had its biggest rally since 1986. i started university in 1986. that's 25 years ago. is flowing to gold, but will it hold up? silver has not performed well and it typically runs in tandem with gold. is the dollar more stressed by the colors of the pylons or where the money is moving? >> i am always impressed by the colors of the charts but i will say that the gold chart speaks more to my heart. gold is a clear winner in a negative rate environment.

1.15. manus: hans and i will take you to the opening. it's all about the markets which is next with hans from berlin and me in london. ♪

oh, hi! micky dolenz of the monkees here, getting ready to host the flower power cruise. (announcer) we're taking the love generation to the high seas and reliving the '60s. we'll celebrate that unbelievable era with the music that made it so special. there'll be over 40 live performances featuring eric burdon & the animals, micky dolenz, the monkees lead singer and cruise host, the 5th dimension, the lovin' spoonful, rare earth, spencer davis, three dog night, and many more! imagine enjoying all that great music on the fabulous celebrity summit, leaving fort lauderdale and making ports of call in jamaica and the bahamas. you'll be back in the days of bellbottoms, peace signs, and so much more, with special theme parties and 20 fun-filled celebrity interactive events. cabins are filling up fast, so come on, relive the era you remember so well.

the flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. let your freak flag fly. don't miss the grooviest trip at sea. manus: good morning, and welcome to "on the move." hans nichols is in berlin. a busy morning. a reversal of fortune, the tables turned on european stocks in the first quarter as they trailed u.s. equities by the most since 2003. we did another gauge of the inflation data out just shortly. what will those figures reveal about the challenges facing mario draghi? u.k. consumer confidence stalls is the threat of brexit clouds the outlook. we look at features here.

nejra: as you were saying, it is but a reversal of fortune for european stocks. we saw them perform their usp master. so far this quarter the stoxx 600 underperforming the s&p 500 by the most sense to thousand three. we did see futures pulling a little lower ahead of the european equity market open. t that is borne out in the performance. the ftse 100 pretty much unchanged. 0 opening pretty much flat just edging into negative territory. we're still waiting for the dax to open up. will wantdual stocks to come we are starting with a trading update same the winter

2016 season 95% of the market program sold. they're saying summer of 2016 revenue and booking on ahead of last year. underlying has a growth of at least 10%. winter 2016 closing out as expected. looking at orange andbouygues, we are seeing the stocks declined because we heard today talksrange and bouygues had not progressed sufficiently. the board will meet at the weekend to take a definitive position. it is really going to be a make or break weekend for these companies. they try to salvage their talks.

if not advanced sufficiently enough to clinch a deal. they have agreed to extend the stocks after months have failed afterend these talks months have failed to produce an agreement. manus: thank you very much. i want to bring you a picture that encapsulates everything. worst january for global stocks since 2015. it was that moment when the world really questioned some of the bank's ability to survive. the question what was going to happen in china. the question what was happening with a negative rates. there was is all pervasive sense of fear in the market. you either believed in that turning point in the morning of the 11th of february, and you into thisuy progressive valid. still european equity markets are the worst performance relative to the u.s. since 2003.

it was a demolition in terms of the banks, down by 20% in this quarter. in terms of what the one he -- the money flowed, it went to the biggest quarterly slide in five years. market, into the bond and treasuries, their biggest quarterly gain in four years. many element in plain terms of what is shifting the dynamics of markets. here to put it in context is sophia, she joins me now. also alongside us is our guest from columbia, fred. stats this morning, it really puts it in context. just take us through some of the highlights. sophia: it was a quarter very much of two halves. we have destroyed deep selloff and bank to the first half. that is a heavy industry on the stoxx 600 and is far more

influential than in the u.s. where tech is a big player. you have a credit sweeps and deutsche bank at record lows which is incredible. drag in theig banks index lower. in the turnaround from february on word which is almost exactly halfway through the quarter. you have the oil rally helping the u.s., the dollar dropping, it is the biggest drop in the dollar versus the euro since 2011. and a quarter with the ecb actually increased to stimulus. that is also not good for european equities because a lot of the rally last year was based and helpingdropping exporters. all of that is reversed. that is shifted back across the atlantic. manus: let's bring mark into the conversation. it really was some precipitous moments. it was a fear. it was a real sense of fear. people just didn't believe is

rally about growth. went into the g-20 thinking that could be something really monumental. -- the think overriding factor for the quarter was the follow on the interest rate rises. then, thoughts about what we might see from on terror policy going forward. in a big run on the dollar expecting. very quickly, the market saw that wasn't going to come through. that led to relative strength of the euro which is not good for european profits. and a weakness in gdp deflation all about the oil price. they're waiting to see what it might do in response to that. buildinga lot of fear up which was released when the ecb made its move. hans: staying on that fear of volatility, look at the strength

of the dollar -- what is that done to set expectations? do you think that is in some way to overblown? the fall of the oil price is very positive for the u.s. consumer. what we're seeing so far is that the tax cut is not being spent in the way one might of historically. in contrast to that, in large ist of u.s. manufacturing teetering on recession because of the collapse in the oil price and the reduction in shale oil spending. perverseot this situation where interest rate of started to rise in the face of a manufacturing recession. that is been quite unsettling for the markets and for the economy. small part,tively but still a significant employer. it is having an impact.

the other dynamic you're talking about is our earnings. there many arguments in terms of whether we should be using high price-to-earnings as a benchmark. we can come back to that argument in a moment. there is a fundamental difference in the valuations. where trading at a significant discount to our peers in the united states. is unlikely to fall perspective sleep. -- precipitously. sofia: that is a key question. the problem with your trading -- not trading is it is attracting investors. investors don't believe. maybe, that, whatever draghi does, european profits are not rising? year, there were basically

flat. the only rose 1.5%. this year, they're going to shrink, most likely. might to do,ecb growth is not coming through in the economy. it is not accelerating, corporate profits are not benefiting either. that is a year when it would probably rebound. if you have a growth in the u.s., they would not make a policy mistake. place -- wouldn't can you place an evaluation discount there? hans: i love this u.s.-europe split, it rises my passions when women'shing to limit

volleyball. should be made to be differentiating a little bit when it comes to europe? those inflation numbers, some big movers on the dax it seems as the europe is so bifurcated that it is hard to lump it altogether. sofia: that is very true, hans. when you look at the stock market, it is a cyclical stock market. it does tend to be affected more by any kind of slow down in the global economy. is not equal.ole remember, it is much more effective than the u.s. by what is going on in the global economy. it tends to be much more punished in a slowdown. it has to be more punished when china is slowing down. it is the first market that people exit in europe. manus: thank you for putting that in context. try to but i will

trumpet. publisher a picture of a giant panda. -- i will show you a picture of a giant panda. in 2017, capital gains and expectations have become like a giant pandas. and an efficient reproduction. this is all about the growth and whether you believe that the a littley that rock bit higher. give me your take on global growth. i think global growth will be positive, but moderate. clearly, we shall have a significant debt overhang globally in europe. your for the capital being raised by the banking sector. particularlys not supportive of growth. the same time, with the chinese economy endeavoring to rebalance while containing an asset write-down -- ride down.

we don't know the size of that. in the u.s., you have growth coming through. again, it is moderate. if we look around the world, we may not -- it will be modest. manus: a lot more to get to. a great article. up next, raising the bar when it comes to precious metals. gold proves its worth and its weight. some of the best in the worst the commodity world. ♪

manus: welcome back, this is "on the move." the governor is speaking now, this is on regulations. in terms of actually their top pointe is saying the key is on regulation. as we get little bit more we need to be better monitoring deals and capital flow. saying the pboc governor we need to better monitor capital deals. this is about them really getting to grips with what is going on with the banking sector, and how to do with the bad loan provisioning and how to deal with the excesses within

the system even though we're going through those profits. zhou.at is president bring you more those headlines from paris as they continue. now it is all about monitoring and dealing with those capital flows. let's get up to speed. fears that britain might float to live the european union have kept consumer confidence at its lowest in over a year. a gauge of expectations for the economic situation over the next year was at -12, down 18 points from a year ago. could cut 400 jobs may be the biggest round of layoffs to date at the world's largest money manager. that is according to people with knowledge of the matter. that is equal to about 3% of the

firm's employees. they will continue to invest and hire in key areas and expects to end the year with a higher headcount according to one person. donald trump has come under fire for saying there would "have to be some form of punishment for woman who have abortions." twop later issued statements clarifying his position saying it would be a doctor or anyone else carrying out an abortion should be held responsible. manus: it has been a difficult quarter, is that an understatement? which isrly copper, heading for day six of the decline, the longest losing streak since january. the gold has strengthened in price.

ken in the studio here in london. let's get into this. the bottom line, from where i sit, as with the you believe that china has baselined in terms of hard landing, soft landing -- what is the answer to that? that takes me forward into what i think of copper, which doesn't seem to believe it. everybody is mistrusting of the iron rally. >> every analyst is jumping up and saying short sell everything here. you had an unbelievable first quarter when you see glencore up , a lot of pms are looking at portfolios and saying i really missed this one. when you talk to the analysts, this is a head fake or a bull move and a bear market. every pm is saying is the us

strong enough to take the rest of the world up? where's the rest the world we can up-to-date the u.s. down? think that china's losses -- if you look at the credit fueled asset bubble we have seen -- try the economy. we think about where the ending , the answer is it hasn't historically. one would have to believe given the chinese authorities have more leaders to pull that traditional western governments. there is a chance they might engineer a soft landing. one has to hope for the do successfully pull that off and would expect growth to fall towards 4% or 5% posted if they manage to do that, i think we will pull through this. hans: apple try to ask this talking aboutut

pandas. is there any divergence, do we hiked, and the other commodities get a bull run? mark: we think the oversupply problem and gold cleared itself pretty well -- oil, especially cleared itself pretty well. the rally we have seen up towards $40 is probably sustainable. the oversupply, we think, has cleared. we feel that oil can makes a modest headway from here. not massively, i don't think we'll see the lows again. in some of the metals i think given the length of leadtime for production, there is some scope for some metal prices to fall further. manus: i know you're getting out the door go do what you do best in london. my question to you, the miners are buying back their debt like

crazy. back their debt, that is ultimately what the institution of shareholders want to see them do. kenneth: your serial bifurcation among the companies. some say there is nothing wrong, you don't have to do anything. than others in emergency mode like glencore, anglo-american, it wanted to come out and say it is the end of the world we need to sell assets and get down debt . those ability stocks that of searcy outperformed. when you talk to sam walsh was leaving rio, he thinks there's nothing wrong. china is great, -- manus: why does he say that in the rest of us is something else? kenneth: sam thinks we're in fantasyland. your -- eightis going to say that it was a great day? i have it on the show to prove

it. thank you very much. on for bloomberg intelligence. swiss stocks of the biggest loser in the quarter? ♪

hans: welcome back to "on the move," let's get to our chart of

the hour. nejra: i am looking at swiss stocks. really, it is underperforming so for this quarter. even the living lowest valuations and more than a year relative to global shares they aren't tempting investors back to swiss equities. the swiss market index versus index, thes world index is the white line underperforming there. it is actually that gauge has tumbled almost twice as much as the stoxx 600 so far this quarter. know what the stoxx 600 has denver's in the s&p 500 already. the purple line at the bottom you can see the estimated pe versus the global index. even though we have both low valuations, it is so underperforming. this is because it is mostly

comprised of firms seen as havens like novartis, and nestle. that is what made them one of the biggest losers this quarter. that index made up of banks made up of insurance companies and made up of health care. all of which across europe have done very badly this quarter. manus: that is fascinating, if you go to your bloomberg terminal you can see nestle is 24% of the smi. i'm surprised by this. stock in 18%,s's ubs is 6% of the index. credit suisse has demolished. at schedule and, it is idiosyncratic in many ways. where does this fit into your global perspective? mark: one of the things we've

youhed on this already, have roughly very strongly this year. we think are some many attractive companies in switzerland. we have the a long-term view. you, mark will stay with us for little bit. up next, so much of the end of bondsnth bull market in offer the best and you will start since 1996 which is when manus finished university. ♪

oh, hi! micky dolenz of the monkees here, getting ready to host the flower power cruise. (announcer) we're taking the love generation to the high seas and reliving the '60s. we'll celebrate that unbelievable era with the music that made it so special. there'll be over 40 live performances featuring eric burdon & the animals, micky dolenz, the monkees lead singer and cruise host, the 5th dimension, the lovin' spoonful, rare earth, spencer davis, three dog night, and many more! imagine enjoying all that great music on the fabulous celebrity summit, leaving fort lauderdale and making ports of call in jamaica and the bahamas. you'll be back in the days of bellbottoms, peace signs, and so much more, with special theme parties and 20 fun-filled celebrity interactive events. cabins are filling up fast, so come on, relive the era you remember so well.

the flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. let your freak flag fly. don't miss the grooviest trip at sea. guy: welcome back. hans nichols is in berlin. i'm manus cranny in london. 30 minutes into the trading session could let's see how things are shaping up. if you have money in this rally, any mind at all, you would focus at your profits at the end of this quarter. group --ustry 2.5%.ces are -- down european stocks have had their worst quarter relative to the u.s. counterpart since 2003.

banks were demolished. pub lower rate was down 49%. like -- itdoesn't has struggled to achieve a balance. -- real results is around the real resilience is around the 10.5. lower sterling for the third straight quarter. trade weighted basis on the ftse 100. a global index with a global perspective. here's a late of -- a lady with a global perspective, their chance. nejra: your stocks with i'm watching good to declines as one gains. one of the best performers on the stoxx 600. a trading update from the travel company. closing out as expected.

ebitdayear underlying growth. it remains pleased with its growth. revenue and booking are ahead of last year. 47% of the summer program is sold. rally seeing the stock for qe today up 4% at the moment. on the flipside, one of the worst performers is the league -- buoygues. are is as the two companies heading into a make or break weekend. they acknowledge today that talks had not advanced sufficiently to clinch a deal. the board is going to meet sunday for a final determination. keep an eye on those stocks for the rest of the week. we have breaking news from

the bank of england governor mark carney. he is speaking right now. he is saying monetary policy alone will not fix a low growth environment. i don't know if you have been kingng burger king -- merv . an interesting read. where getting raking headlines from mark cart -- we are getting breaking headlines from mark carney. persistent low growth can undo financial resilience. let's keep the conversation in the general macro field, talking about juan's, recession worries. -- about bonds, recession worries here it bonds worldwide are up. let's back to our guest mark burgess. mark, let's get your comments here on what mr. carney is saying. in some ways he is repeating an argument that everybody knows to be true, and that is central banks may be at the end of the guess theyey me to

may need to rely on fiscal stimulus. and they may need to rely on fiscal stimulus could -- stimulus. marco -- mark: you're trying to force an agenda on a politician who is unwilling. they cannot find political unity or something else in the way. clearly we need a growth agenda. averagingues to rise, 90%. growth,, it is very dangerous. especially if you have a low level of inflation. these are dangerous times. i think the economy is right. tois up to the politicians take up the banks now and try to get growth to come through. manus: one of the things we

discussed is monetary policy has and whereints road negative rates territory. -- and we are in negative rates territory. expand. what we have moved -- what we have is shell and rush. two beasts. got negative view on it two major players in the corporate bond market. 14 billion corporate bonds aren't negative territory. -- are in negative territory. bonds withg to issue negative rates? and what i buy them? -- and would i buy them? .ark: the answer is no the reason we have seen the rally and equity markets is because investors have been reminded the global market which

has rallied, the corporate bond market is attractive from your perspective. equity still yields 4%. responsys? public -- what i buy russian bonds? probably not. manus: i thought hans was going to come in. you still get -- what you get for a treasury bond? -- what do you get for a treasury bond? best quarter in bonds. me, ig question for thought it was a rather commanding performance. the most commanding performance i have heard from yellen. returns,of treasury

pointed out with a return. at the percent return. in this bizarre world, there's quite attractive. mark: inflation is anemic. despite the fact that we've got a call employment in the u.k. and u.s. -- we've got full employment in the u.k. and u.s.. -- and u.s. issue.on is not an interest rates are not going up aggressively. interest rates in the u.s. may not go up again. manus: you think no more hikes? mark: i think there is a strong possibility. it is weak globally for that to be a possibility.

hans: how do you head your portfolio? i'm sure you're not going to go all into russian equities. do you have a wall of money that is going to be heading across -- thisntic looking for bingo fixed income in the states echo mark: -- in the states? mark: high-yield is still attractive. we think equities will continue to rise and climbed the wall of worry. the evaluations look ok. policy is very quantitive. despite the weak economic backdrop, we see equities will make modest progress. manus: i am going to blow up this chart a little bit and it

will show us emerging markets rally on the fed and oil. there we go. if i wait long enough and you live long enough, will get there at the bloomberg. -- we will get there at bloomberg. this is emerging markets, the rally. this is a massive switch around. [indiscernible] they all grew through the one gate. there has been a rush of money back into emerging markets. are you a part of that? do you believe oil can sustain $40? do you believe the fed is unlikely to go for another tight do you believe the fed is unlikely to go for another hike in 2016? prices.ak commodity pro cyclical interest rates which is crushing the economy.

storm.ly a perfect is ayou have seen so far march that is come to an end. just what you have seen so far is a march that is come to an end. -- what you have seen so far is a march that is come to an end -- and has come to an end. valuations are low. there is a lot of problems in many countries. brazil in particular facing difficulty. i can see why it has rallied. hans: mark burgess, we thank you for your time, patience and insight. it really your calmness next to manus's activity. we are going to go to iceland, the only country that has imprisoned top executives in the wake of the 2008 crisis. they are serving time. he is next.

he is going to give his expense report and how much you spent. coming up next. -- how much he has spent. coming up next. ♪

hans: this is hans nichols viewed this is on the move. is

good to bloomberg business flash with camus the ramanathan did kumutha: blackrock is planning to cut foreign to jobs. the biggest round of layoffs to date at the world's largest money manager. that is according to people with knowledge. the productions are that's the reductions are equal to the .resent of 13,000 employees despite because, they will continue to invest in hiring in key areas. barclays japan is to resign in june. he was the executive who broke the news to employees in january that the bank will close its cash equity operations in japan and focus on derivatives and electronic trading. his departure will leave andrew jones as the company's sole ceo. buoygues and orange have

extended -- their board will meet again to take a definitive position while orange management will examine the results of the talks by sunday. shares of both companies are trading lower this morning. mark management icon mobius is stepping down from day-to-day management. steve and over will become chief investment officer of the group and take over some of his responsibilities on april 15. -- us is popularized >> we have the emerging markets group and the local management group. , what we arenies doing is combining them. moving them into one big group so we can use the resources. imo moving up to oversee role -- i am moving up to an oversee road -- role.

british prime minister david cameron is sharing a talk later. to unload its u.k. assets after losses. the division has almost zero value. lowest in ahe decade. >> given the global capacity issue. given how trade moves are happening across waters. there isn't desiderius an existential crisis -- there is an exit stencil crisis. existential crisis. kumutha: that is your bloomberg business flash. hans. hans: iceland, we're going to head to iceland, the only country to put top executives behind bars after the 2008 crisis. bad bankers are serving time is

the focus of the peace in bloombergs forthcoming issue. and would robinson joins us now. i have only spoken to you on radio. i have -- edward robinson joins us now. i have only spoken to you on radio. tell us about the different approaches toward bankers, potential criminal bankers in the u.k., u.s. and iceland. edward: they pursued a civil strategy against the institution themselves. billions of dollars and pounds in euros in fines that have been levied against the banks for all of the various action that took place in the subprime mortgage crash. iceland took a different approach. they pursued criminal charges against individuals. that is a striking that they did that. they succeeded in winning convictions. many of those atop a are facing pretty serious terms, between

four to 4.5 years. job manywent for a years ago. i got off with a job. it was a very sexy office. it was opulent, white walled, it was vote gertie. i loved it did -- it was while garrity -- vulgarity. they are having a different experience at the moment. edward: they had that whole jets set, parties and monte carlo. it came to an abrupt end in 2008. they let the banks fail so the government did not try and bail him out. -- bail them out. possible.no bailout they let the old banks go

bankrupt. they started new successor banks, recapitalized them. by wiping the slate clean, they have been able to move on the faster then we have seen with european lenders. what are the bankers doing now? is this hardship duty? are the outstanding license plates? edward: it is a minimum security prison as it would be in most countries. the prison has no walls, no guard towers, there is only one road back to civilization. they are not worried about the bankers going anywhere are trying to escape. they can have laptops, surf the internet, they help in the kitchen. it used to be a farmhouse. there are sheep nearby. there are icelandic horses spirit in the spring and summer, the prisoners are allowed to go out and tend to the sheep and horses. they can take walks on the grounds.

they cannot leave the prison. manus: here's the road to the prison. hans: we have a road to the prison. it sounds like i might be walking down that road. it sounds like a peaceful vacation. maybe a little cleaning. what did socrates offer? or exclusion? up next, we'll take a look at what to expect from these eurozone inflation figures due out later this morning. i will keep socrates out of this. whether he was just a figment of plato's imagination or not. ♪

manus: you are welcome back. this is on the move. here is your day ahead. here is what we have set the pace with. u.k. gdp is coming out and over a half hour it that is after chancellor george osborne revised down his forecast in the budget earlier. we get the first of euro area cpi. this afternoon, it is u.s. initial jobless claims. that is ahead of their big one this week. isning us in london, it bloomberg first word strategist, hans is with us here at side-by-side with me -- with us. side-by-side with me. richard, good morning. hans go i want to introduce just

hans: i would -- hans: i want to introduce richard. he knows more than me. then we take tomorrow off -- can we take tomorrow off? why can't we just go to the gym this morning? richard: that does not sound like a bad idea. i think you're right to say that tomorrow is going to be the focus. position adjusting ahead of tomorrow's number. the deflation data will be interesting good you have some decent numbers out of germany yesterday. -- interesting. you have some decent numbers out of germany yesterday. i don't see this being a trend rather than a one-off. the early easter maybe distorted the german numbers a little bit. tomorrow is not a fun payroll. manus: i challenge you there.

i don't think anything is going to trump jenny from the block. i tweeted that yesterday. janet yellen's speech. -- speech trumps payroll. richard: payroll will be what it is. manus: we could be completely ball out of the water by that. if we get a low number or high number -- hans, you've got german unemployment? hans: it rose 2000, the rate stays the same. the important thing is we are not seeing any impact, any downward pressure on employment from the refugee crisis. there has been a lot of talk. stimulus.it of fiscal spend more money to house them. that is causing a little less economic concern. the german unemployment rate stays unchanged at 6.2 percent. i will dig into these numbers alone that more. richard, what is your take?

the german economy is plotting ahead. the german economy is doing well under the qb regime. regime. we have the two biggest economies, france and germany and france unemployed -- germany. france unemployment at an all-time high. that is why they are doing what they are doing on the monetary policy front. manus: biggest quarterly slide in five years. this is what we've got. this is interesting. focused wholly on negative rates. it is not our primary view. tomorrow, payrolls that is going to move our bond markets? richard: it will provide training opportunities pod desk opportunities. but is not going to -- opportunities. it is not going to shift the

dial on what the fed is thinking. hans go out -- hans: i want to thank everyone. the unemployment came in unchanged. expectations were for -6000. that is all for berlin. ♪

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the flower power cruise, february 27th, 2017. let your freak flag fly. don't miss the grooviest trip at sea. francine: the eurozone braces for another month of disinflation as the data defies draghi. stocks affect it asian head for the best month sent 2009. the us federal reserve's sees optimism. stoxx 600 trails u.s. equities. and ugly quarter slams shut in europe. -- and ugly quarter slams shut in europe. ♪ francine: welcome to the pulse. live from bloomberg's european headquarters.