able to say -- this is too much. irrefutable that if alix: good afternoon. you have to have double the capital, unless you can increase your earnings twice, no one will i am alix steel. the u.s. stocks were next as a be able to increase their earnings twice. choppy quarter comes to an end alix: that was the senior and with last month's rebound leaving wall street at the chairman of rodgers and cromwell highs. tomorrow's jobs report, what it has in store for investors. speaking on bloomberg . in emerging markets, the best we caught up with another banking giant. mary schapiro spoke with us month in almost five years. mark mobius weighs in on current pushing for greater 's outlook. transparency. : across the g-20, every the day after metlife one a court battle. why firms are going after jurisdiction requires companies to disclose material to risks, regulators, and what it means for the dodd frank act. including climate risks and opportunities. the obligation is there for companies to prepare this let's go to the markets desk information. where julie hymen has the latest. we are trying to respond to the happy quarter end. that was a rough quarter. fact there is not a single framework that really works for public companies to disclose this information.

julie: is that a thing? users of financial information can we make the holiday? and this kind of disclosure want let's look at the quarter. it very much, but they do not --e a coherent train work just atwant to look glad framework to receive and u.s. stocks, but around the understand it. ool are of the st globe. one of the few major benchmarks around the globe in developed markets where we have seen a positive return. regulators concerned about the with the latest recovery that we potential financial stability and impact of large have seen, it is up a little more than 1%. climate-related risks that are undisclosed. the stoxx 600 is down by 8% here we are trying to solve three the nikkei down 12%. problems for three constituencies with one solution the shanghai composite down 18%. . -- down 15%. the obligation to make this kind of disclosure is already there. we're trying to find a tool to going back to bill gross, in do it more effectively that terms of equity investments. that is what it looks like when gives us usual information for the first quarter lenders, underwriters, and investors. alix: that was mary schapiro, performance. the head of the fsb task force. the world market cap, because of the under performance, it is still down for the year to date. ofing up in the next hour you can see 1.7 trillion dollars bloomberg markets, the fitbit has been wiped off of the value year.bal market cap this

ceo will sit down with cory even if we have seen something of a recovery it is till eight negative return year-to-date. johnson in san francisco. share prices have been off of outside of equities, we have low since the ipo last june. seen a positive return through you don't want to miss the oil and gold year to date. interview at 1:20 p.m. in new having its best york and 10:20 a.m. in san francisco on bloomberg radio. ♪ quarterly performance going all the way back to 1986. oil has climbed 50% from its lows of the year, giving a total year, giving a total year-to-date performance of 4%. the dollar has been lower, which is one of the things that has been helping the commodities. alix: really, oil and gold having such a great quarter is unbelievable. julie: what led up to it was also unbelievable. no one seems to want to take on big positions at the end of the quarter. we are seeing a little bit of a of, but not much. the nasdaq is the leader. it has been a laggard year to date as we see more traction in

technology shares since the bottom in february. today, we are seeing a similar trade to what we have seen your to date with oil and gold higher. oil rebounding from recent losses. the dollar is showing weaker. the major trading partners a little higher. higher versus the pound, and the yen, lower versus the euro. hyman.hank you, julie this check in on first word news with mark thompson. -- mark crumpton. in turkey, and explosion near a bus terminal in a city.sh a large number of ambulances were deployed. bombews agency says a car turned into a bus transferring police and blame terrorism using the designation for kurdish rebels.

it took place as the turkish prime minister held talks with vice president haydn at the sidelines of the nuclear summit in 10. it is the fourth such gathering president obama has hosted focused on preventing nuclear terrorism. is the ceo of the nuclear threat initiative. senator nunn spoke to bloomberg television this morning. nn: the united states and find a way to cooperate. we have to agree to form a working group, intelligence and energy department's with both countries to prevent isil or any other extremist group from getting control of weapons of mass distraction. nunn says obtaining weapons grade material is the biggest obstacle for terrorists. the brussels airport will remain closed until tomorrow for passenger flights. they are evaluating temporary

repairs made after last week's terrorist attacks when the bombs destroyed the check-in area. one it is reopened, the airport will only handle a fraction of normal passenger traffic. donald trumpon and are leading in their home state of new york. hillary clinton is ahead of bernie sanders 54% to 42% alix: it is 1:00 p.m. in new according to a quinnipiac york, 6:00 p.m. and 1:00 a.m. in hong kong. university poll. ."lcome to "bloomberg markets 20%.d trump leads 56% to john kasich has 19%. -- 6:00 p.m. in london and 1:00 the primary in new york is april a.m. in hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg markets." 19. global news, 24-hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists, in 150 news bureaus around the world. good afternoon. i am alix steel. i am mark crumpton. ge says it is not too big to stocks are fail and wants the tag removed. fluctuating heading into the first monthly gain in four it believes its financial months. business is now too small to be edging closer to the 2100 level, a threat. fitbit ceo james park joins us a tipping point for previous rallies. live for an interview.

come to market, the founder and ceo of to mark analytics called tesla will also unveil a new for oil to rally off of its 13 cheaper car today, going after year lows. the middle market. the crude is up 14% since then. , whichtend to head to gm on february 23, they called for the s&p to fall, and it is up 7%. is launching its chevy volt emark is tom d later this year. julie hyman has the latest on this calm day at the end of the quarter. julie: it is a very called day. joining us on the phone. look at the s&p 500 today and tom: it is great to be with you. thank you for the invitation. the other major averages, not seeing much action. , as well astified the nasdaq is the leader with a gain of 131% -- gain of .3%. of february 11 low, on-air all for the like we are set three times, the kerning points in the market. we anticipated because 90% of tightest range of the year thus far. ofking at an intraday chart the stocks hit bottom from january 22 january 11, we the s&p, very tight range here, up only two points for that thought it would be a longer upside move. we straight from the reservation average. in a sense that we did not follow indicators the way we we are still seeing low-volume should have. today, 20% below the 20 day

average. we said the22 market was vulnerable to a 5% to you can see the volume by group. 10% correction. the only group we are seeing an the reason we said that was the chineseollow uptick in volume is telecom. market and worldwide markets closely. the chinese market was vulnerable of a 10% move that maybe people are waiting for the could happen very quickly and beginning of the next quarter, aggressively. went up 10%ets maybe they are earning with -- waiting for earning season. while u.s. markets are 3%. bloomberg met the we saw the to-day trading and 758.is g #btv reset the market will bottom on futures. it did bottom, but unfortunately, interviews and a terrible start to the year with the s&p falling 10.5% media interviews are snapshots. through its low of the year. they're not pictures. then, we had this enormous rebound of nearly 13%. we strayed from the reservation in that sense. us down and what has we were going overseas, and we demark our tours the led us back up? i lead analysis to the biggest apology tours. contributors to the declined by arere back in sync and we index point. you get some stocks like amazon,

to what we believe is a high. for example. -- this is in alix: looking at the s&p now index points. versus october, they look the amount they took off the relatively similar. s&p. bank of america and microsoft. we had 16 higher closings then and 17 now. also, banks are presented here. chart, what are take a look at the stocks that your indicators telling you? contributed the most to the periodsween the two gains since then. three of the same names. a lot of the reversal is due to there were four successfully this turnaround a large cap technology. particularly ge come also on higher closes and six successfully lower closes. that list. that same movement was witnessed financials have not turned off of the january low into around quite as sharply. february before the six lower closes. we are following that model. that still come at the nasdaq is the laggard year we rallied 13%. to date from the lowest on the year to date. currently we have rallied 14.5% alix: thank you very much. with 17 higher closes. let's check in on the first word we have decoupled in the last news this afternoon. turkish news agencies weeks, but our work is showing market indices report that six police officers were killed in an explosion that abroad, which bottomed in the january february period and appeared to target a vehicle carrying special forces and

write police. countered for the expectation that stocks would go up, are -- riot police. showing us that we could be today,a top as early as when he for people come including civilians, were wounded in the attack -- 24 provided we make a higher higher people, including civilians. today than yesterday. more likely tomorrow that could happen. brussels airport police say they it looks like because the bottom was so widespread positive that criticized security long before the markets, after a correction, last week's terror attacks. they sensedned that good start up again. alix: let's drill down for the correction part. strong daily signals about the if you look at what happened in lack of security. police warned of too many october and now, after we hit the top in early november come airport employees having the s&p fell 13% into the criminal backgrounds. the death toll is 21 in the collapse of an overpass in india. february low. are you anticipating that kind of decline when the market tops out? tom: we can tell. this is unusual for us because dozens of other people were we are specific and precise in injured. our forecasts. we will have a better idea next bernie sanders has raised nearly $40 million this month. week. it looks like it could only be a 5% decline right now. he's hoping to top the 43.5 million marquis generated -- the market, and mark degenerated in the very -- potentially going higher.

it is not conclusive. look the other thing you he generated in february. at for an indicator is the russell 2000, the small cap the money is key with primaries looming next week in wisconsin stocks. what kind of action do you expect? tom: it could get as high as and april 19 in new york. 112.52. we are currently 111. we have 1% or so upside side. news 20 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists we have a little more upside in more than 150 news bureaus there and we're looking at around the world. alix: general electric is on the 110.70. another 1%. verge of bending its status as a too big to fail lender. we could gofew days u.s. may lose to higher, but we could come down. remove the designation of the i hate to be so vague, because systemically important financial institution. generally were so specific, but ge mosthas pulled this is an inflection point. we don't know if it is severe or normal correction of 5.5%. entirely away from the banking business as part of an effort to return the company to its off with the january 20 low we industrial roots. for more, we are joined by karen were looking for rally, and it went exactly 7.8% on january 1. . good to see you. we are looking at the inverse, a be tolose would ge little less at 5.5%. alix: it looks murky in the

dismantling the sifi label? market. when we get that back and the karen: we expect them to complete it this year. rally resumes, do expect us to they are 80% done. low out to new highs, or will we alix: that would be ok. be range-bound? tom: we can't tell. lending money so someone can buy that is the problem. alix: why is it so hard to tell? a plane. ren: they won't have credit what is so murky? tom: the decline in early 2016 was initiated at 26.75, closing card businesses or bank businesses or deposit businesses. they will be significantly smaller. alix: metlife recently won a .t 20.78 ruling, removing it from the label of too big to fail. if we broke that level, we could more conclusively project the decline that would be modest. if we do not break that level in karen: i cannot get too into the the next couple of days a could atails there, but metlife is be more severe. we want to monitor the relationship between the current secure financial company, market and the peak that we 20.rded on december 20 9, insurance company. their assets are significantly larger than ge's. 81. which is a factor. thehould have a modest we don't really know what they won the argument on.

klein. if we do not reach that level on this move, he could be more we won't know for a week or so what tipped it in their favor. serious, more severe. we can't tell yet. your it is great to get perspective. we're looking at a potential 5% ge is considerably smaller. decline in the s&p topping out alix: this highlights what ge today and tomorrow. the s&p potentially resuming its has done. rally. thank you for your perspective. build bridges, then tom demark, founder and ceo of went into financials, now trying to be an industrial company. demark analytics. things at i talked to the worst performer year to date, and shares are in the of once to be oil services company serious health care after in the next decade. thinks it wants to be an oil running into legal issues -- you services company in the next know what it is? i don't. wind out when bloomberg decade. karen: finance will be 10%. "markets" returns. they are in five core ♪ businesses, including health they're pretty profitable in every one of those businesses. i think they want to grow out all the businesses, health care probably a bit less. the reason people talk about oil and gas from a there are some

big holes to fill. prices down so low on those assets, they will do more in that segment. ago, it was being valued as a financials company. will it be valued as an industrials company now? karen: i think so. we did not really understand the finances that well. being focused on industrials business. people are recognizing this is a huge step. alix: thank you for the perspective. coming up in the next 20 minutes of "bloomberg markets," why our base metals trading higher in shanghai but lower in london? fitbit ceo james park joins us for an interview.

march madness in the markets after a volatile start to the year. who would have predicted that march would be the best month for stocks since october? will that rally last? ♪ ♪

alix: this is bloomberg "markets." i am alix steel. a look at the biggest business stories in the news. the number of americans filing for unemployment and if it hit a two month high. initial jobless claims were 276,000, indicating an marketment in the labor is tempered by manufacturing. the jobs report for march is released tomorrow. five players from the women's u.s. soccer team has filed wage discrimination. generate $20 million more revenue than the men's team, but the reigning world cup and olympic champions are paid four times less. with thent was filed equal opportunity employment commission. tesla motors plans to unveil the latest electric vehicle. the base price may be a shocker.

$35,000 here that is a bargain compared to the other models that start at $80,000. car will beelectric presented at the los angeles design studio. it will have a range of 200 miles when fully charged. is your business flash. let's go to our markets desk where julie hyman will check on the company movers and our mystery chart. there was a running clue and health care clue. i couldn't tell if it was health care or nike. alix: you are watching julie: i don't know if the "bloomberg markets." i'm alix running clue was on purpose. steel. time for a look at the bloomberg it is health care. business flash. it is indo pharmaceuticals. one of uber's largest rivals buying to be the biggest black 60%. down, cap service in london, buying the worst performer in the s&p 500 this year. undisclosed fitbit is down more than 50%. price. that was a good guess. invitation homes

here's the decline we have seen year to date. the decline today's close to 5% selling to -- to prune and focus looking at the daily performance. endo was sued by on improving operations. blackstone went on a home buying spree after the real estate crash. the united states for violating antitrust laws by reaching settlements to block generics capital partners has raised $600 competing with their products. million for a hedge fund focusing on murders and acquisitions. that is what is hitting the shares of the ftc. -- mergers and acquisitions. reached aaying endo the fund will be overseen by michael edwards and will operate from 18-24 months. legal agreements to eliminate competitions. if you look at the bloomberg, i lookfinancial analysis to julie hyman has a check on some at the breakdown of the of the company movers today. julie: we are doing metals. company's revenue between generics and branded drugs. alix: we are doing metals instead because it's cool and we they used to make up the love it. asiness until it bought julie: time for our metal bulletin, looking at the more industrial base metals today, pharmaceutical company last year. now generics make up a larger copper, iron ore and aluminum in particular. part of the business, ironically

enough since it was trying to here's the year-to-date block generic competitions for performance for each of these. iron ore has had a strong year. its own drugs. the others named by the ftc, speculation about a pickup in demand particularly in china. their impact has turned higher. they're not seeing much of an effect. there is an index that combines and impax allegedly a bunch of these metals. lme index of those come up 3.1% for the year. conspired with endo. if you look at the last five years, the performance is not as subgroup inrforming strong. some of the outperformance we've the s&p 500. down 7.5%, there have been seen this year has been a bounce from several years of about potential underperformance for many of the metals. regulation of specialty one of the things we've also pharmaceutical makers over drug been watching is that chinese demand. ofyou look at the board pricing. it is not only specialty chinese metals in storage, first pharmaceutical makers, but biotech's. the nasdaq biotech index, it is down 22.5%. you have what's going on with copper. then you have led, then sink it was one of the out performers than aluminum. d, then zinc, then for the first half of last year. we have seen a downturn in this group. alix: i love the mystery chart,

i will just never get it. julie: we'll keep doing it. alix: emerging market currencies aluminum. if you look at the inventory in heading for their strongest monthly rally on record. china and what it has done since inside from mark mobius is next. june, you've seen -- insight from mark mobius is decline, but a 20% rebound from that low in june. next. ♪ we have seen china stockpiling these various metals. that has had an effect on the prices. alix: i love it. thank you so much, julie hyman. we have seen a rally in base metals, but something is happening in the commodities world. base metals prices in london and china are now trading differently. this chart shows copper, -- them, zinc and nickel blue is the london metal exchange while the orange is the shanghai futures exchange. is the worst performer

on the lme and the second-best on the shanghai. joining us is colin hamilton from the corey group -- mccourty group. that divergence is quite unusual. :: it is big we've seen a growth in the metals market. : it is. we've seen a growth in the metals market. a very weak position from the turn of the year to dramatic theovement, mainly as chinese stimulus has come through come of government has looked to support growth. --a result, we've seen chinese demand may be better than the week environment we expect. alix: aluminum stands out. the inventory build we've seen

in aluminum this year is much lower than previous years. do you believe the demand factor there? i should point out, we are looking at inventory chart, the white line you see is 2016. , 2015,tially below that 14 and 13. colin: the chinese production ♪ has been cut. we are seeing chinese aluminum production trending lower for the fourth quarter. so, we have seen the cutbacks. i do believe with the pricing we've seen glenda's cutbacks seen,e reversed -- we've those cutbacks will be reversed. the demand story is ok. on the supply side -- we will stop talking about supply cuts when they start talking about alix: those are top stories on

restocks. alix: the rally we've seen will bloomberg.com right now. you are watching bloomberg "markets." undermine any supply cuts we have seen and help aluminum i am alix steel. prices rally, which means emerging-market currencies are aluminum prices might actually on track for the strongest rally fall from here? colin: yes, absolutely. on record as commodities rebound and the u.s. dollar weakens. toting china's outlook there's too much capacity in these markets now. i certainly think that shanghai alumina price that's aluminum negative. mark mobius says he is bullish on emerging markets. price may move slightly higher. he spoke to bloomberg television earlier. a lot of people do not the second derivative of these metals markets is improving. understand the nature of the chinese political and economic markets are not getting worse anymore. structure. capacity.ave too much it is a planned economy. when they say we want 6% growth, of thehe other part they get 6% growth. story we've seen in the first it may be in highways that go quarter has been the stabilization of the dollar. we have a chart that takes a look at the commodity index nowhere, but they will get the growth. have come to the realization versus the dollar index. there has been waste. correlated.ersely they want to move to a market economy. they will allocate resources more effectively. they aren't there yet. relationship of

commodities to the dollar on the thenot worried, because up and down side? colin: the dollar has a big party, the government, has control of some of the key andents like currency effect on the cost of production for those were the producer is controls on investments. based outside of u.s. they are in pretty good , your the key commodities shape in that sense. are there problems? marginal buyer and producer is of course. there will be bankruptcies. in the paper, one of the brokers generally r&b denominated. got in trouble with their bonds. we will get more of that. periods where the the basic direction is correct. they want to move to a service dollar is strong, is a big economy. they will get there, but it will take -- >> people should not rush it. headwind for industrials. when they want to be more market part of the reaction between the oriented, you have seen how they rally, we've seen the lack of behave when it comes to trading. dollar headwinds over the past four months. alix: what is your favorite it seems like they want a market-based economy until it metal right now? colin: zinc. goes wrong for them, then they alix: thank you very much. go "oh god, what do we do now? " mark: it is a dilemma.

still ahead on "bloomberg markets," fitbit is still you can imagine the people leading the wearable race. wanting to regulate. on one hand they want to move to a market economy, on the other the competition is getting fierce and crowded. hand they have to make sure we will ask the ceo how he is nothing goes wrong. managing this, next. ♪ >> it seems they have hit a roadblock. there are two months away from the decision of including into these. what can china do in the next eight weeks that can possibly push them forward? mark: into the markets? open completely without restriction. without penalties. if you have 5% of the stock, you cannot do anymore trading. use restrictions -- these restrictions are holding them back. i can understand why they want to move step-by-step. there is no question where we are now is different from where we were a few years ago. >> what about for the currency? what should they do? mark: the currency, they will have to keep control in the

,ense of restricting outflows excessive outflows, that is. they're moving to a situation open,they can have an free currency. the currency and opening of the market go hand-in-hand. side, some regulators would like to see a completely open, the markets, with investors coming in. the central bank says we cannot have foreign-exchange controls thrown out of the window. this is where the balance has to come. is certainly not the worst of your markets. what is the worst right now? , a place liket this deal would be a good example. pressure, i just mentioned, because we can go into that full force. singled me out one that is not on people's radar. preferably, you think one that

will look good in 10 years. mark: vietnam. and myanmar. myanmar. it is a big country that is moving quickly toward liberalization. they will have a thriving capital market. alix: that was mark mobius of templeton. alix: welcome back to "bloomberg mobius has been investing in markets." ing nations for four now, to the battle of the fitness band. fitbit remains in the league but decades. is losing market share to the he is now handing over his likes of apple and under armour responsibilities, but will remain chairman. as companies compete for the space. has oil finally bottomed? shares have been tumbling as a result. our next guest explains his $70 price target. ♪ we want to head over to radio is in the yorka cory johnson is in san francisco. -- in new york and cory johnson is in san francisco. cory: years ago when i first heard about you guys, you and i

did a package for bloomberg television. and both of us were a few lb's heavier. long on thesegone little donaldson devices to measure how many steps you are taking. i'm curious about how that is going because you are matched up with this device getting so much publicity in the apple watch. james: the company has grown explosively. , 5 million in , wenue in 2010, last year had $1.9 billion in revenue. the category as a whole is growing pretty quickly. we announced a product called the fitbit lays last year -- blaze last year. just recently announced that we shipped over one million blazes

within a month. cory: what's interesting about , to me, it is really maybed on athletes and best suited for runners. james: that is what differentiates it from other products in the market. it is geared to the active consumer segment. andle focus on fitness interested in cardio activities. hits that sweet point,tween price features and battery life. id: you sell a device to somebody, he's got that device on the what is the likelihood he will buy another? james: we are not at saturation point. business is growing rapidly in north america and

internationally as well. the retention of our users has been great. of all the devices we shipped over the last six years, do not pursue those users are still thank you. active -- 59% of those users are ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. still active. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. that is a very engaged user base. you're promised one speed. users who 72% of all but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. bought a device in 2015 are it's reliable. still active. anecdotally like just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. the people by this device, put comcast business. it in the wash -- built for business. stickywhat makes fitbit is the power of our software and our community. people compete across a variety ♪ of mac tricks. oft metrics -- variety alix: live from the bloomberg world headquarters in new york this is bloomberg "markets." metrics. i am alix steel. that start with the headlines. mark crumpton has that. an increase inad

the average number of friends people have on the platform. the main paris attack 4.927.5 -- from 4.9 to 7.5. suspect will be extradited. salah abdeslam will be returned to face charges, but no timetable has been set for the there's always those still return. he was captured in brussels after four months on the run. people who have treadmill desks. north korea will be on the agenda as world leaders gather in washington for a summit on i looked at a lot of the nuclear security. reviews -- cory: i looked at a president obama discussed lot of the reviews online and pyongyang's recent test with the looked at how you guys are doing with the watch. leaders of japan and south me how muchising to korea. the u.s. is considering whether to deploy a missile defense south korea. more discussion there was of that than the apple watch. it would give them radar coverage over china. was becauseow if it the brussels airport police say it was new or if you are getting a lot more buzz. they criticize security before james: the buzz has been the attacks. phenomenal. in a letter, they complained this the best lunch we've had to date. they sent strong daily signals if you look at the reviews on about the lack of security. amazon, 84% of reviews are poor the police warned that too many airport employees had criminal or five stars.

-- four or five stars. backgrounds. another tough job. weinberg supervised 9/11 victim payouts and paid cuts for cory: is that part of your executives and build out banks. long-term plan? he has to decide whether to cut how do you think about where to scale? james: the long-term plan for payouts for teamsters so the fitbit is we are not just a european central state pension wearables company, we are a fund can keep from going broke. company focused on helping people achieve their goals. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, and roadmap is filled 150 news bureaus around the with devices both wearable and world. aix: we have seen on wearable that help people address those goals. cory: really big stuff from sustained rally in oil prices. fitbit. has oil actually bottoms? thank you for stopping by, james and pickering is the chief park, the ceo of fitbit. investment officer at pickering and company. still ahead on "bloomberg it is great to see you. do you think the oil has bottomed? i think it has. markets," it is the last trading $25aw prices in the day of the quarter. what a long quarter that has been in a very strange trip. range. i think we will see better

,he wrap up and a look ahead prices over the next 18 months. coming up next. alix: what kind of sustained rally do you think we will see? ♪ oil needs to go back to when the oil industry had stop shrinking. where there is enough cash flow in the business to generate production growth and supply the world needs. millionill grow one barrels a day in 2016 and 2017. something in the $60 to $70. time forre the early determination. moneyave said how much they're willing to lend to energy companies based on reserve. we were waiting for huge cuts. we haven't seen it in other banks shifting seasons. what are you expecting?

dan: it will be tougher. the duration of commodity prices is below $40. it will be a tough 2016. the banks are asking companies to pay them back. they don't have a lot of cash to do that. we would expect more assets to be on the market. we have seen some bankruptcies, we will see more. it has been a tough 2016 before we see the impact of the higher commodity prices. alix: in the future, how do oil and natural gas companies get their funding? i asked that question to the ceo , arepstone energy, things going to allow companies to pile on that much debt in the future? >> most investors are greedy. as prices move up over time, it will be a time again that you can invest in the business. it might be years. alix: do you agree? dan: probably.

investors have short memories. when there's business starts to grow, when prices are better. if oil is $40 headed to $70, we will see a meaningful increase in cash flows. that will pull people back in. will they be more prudent? absolutely. will they be back? i think they will be. alix: will it affect the ability to produce the amount of oil we are used to? dan: i think it well. it will be tougher to grow as quickly as we grew during the 14 times fan. we will lose a million barrels a day on the peak to the end of 16. it will be tough to turn that ,nd grow particularly with the memory of how folks are getting burned now. alix: the recount has been

slashed. do you think we'll ever get to thatig rig count bonanza we got to is the capital rules change? dan: i think that rigs are getting more efficient and companies are getting smaller. we will need fewer to accomplish what we accomplished during the alix: welcome back to "bloomberg last up cycle. markets." never say never. it will be a while before we get i'm alix steel. back to 2000 plus rigs in the u.s.. let's start with the first word news this afternoon. in washington, president i think that the current levels, which will probably bottom under 400 are certainly going to have to increase. obama and dozens of world if using the capital leaders are attending a summit on preventing nuclear terrorism. spoke to bloomberg market opening back up in 2017 -20 18, but in the meantime will be hard for those who have a lot television today. onwe also have to cooperate of debt. into loans.rned a global basis, united states and russia have to find a way to cooperate. bernstein is creating a fund that will give money to energy ought to be able to agree to companies because banks have closed their doors. ink -- form a working group

what you think of the alternative financing? dan: i think it is a function of isil countries to prevent s when the traditional markets get tough, the nontraditional markets emerge. for any other group from getting weapons of mass distraction. i think it is an example of grade --aining nuclear capitalism at work. it makes sense. the money is more expensive, nuclear weapons grade material is on top of the list. more difficult, only going to the better companies -- but, it is out there if you are willing to pay up for it. hillary clinton donald trump leading in their home state of outgrowth of the new york. traditional channels being tougher. alix: what are the long-term donald trump leads ted cruz ramifications? you wind up having pe guys owning a chunk of a firm. 66-20 percent. john kasich has 19%. or you have loans pushing down new york's primary is april 19. debt into the subordinated world. donald trump getting an extra boost from a super pac. doesn't that hurt financing going forward? they plan to spend at least $1 dan: it says that some of the million on commercials across money that has been invested has been lost. the country, including in the new financers will make wisconsin. returns from the new money. they hold their primary next of $25 to $40 oil is tuesday. donald trump insisted he does

not want their help. that people who lost money, it will be tough to get that back. plans to transfer the new owners have more about a dozen more prisoners as rigorous controls in place. -- the firsttary slow growth will going forward, but i don't think it will choke off capital. i round of transfers could come don't think it will choke off within the next few days. the entrepreneurial spirit of the business. it is part of president obama's it will make it tougher and effort to close the facility before he leaves office. slower in the near to intermediate term. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists alix: what do you do about the high yield energy market? do you want to be a buyer? in more than 100 50's goes dan: you have to be very around the world. high yieldcross -- 150 is goes around the world. alix: u.s. stocks fluctuating, investment grade or equities. you have to be very careful heading for their first monthly gain in four month. about the sustainability of companies you are investing in. we think prices will be better after some investor whiplash, the fed is now staying cautious. by the end of this year into next year, but if they are not earlier today, we spoke with -- you do not want to be holding charles evans. any improvement in the the bag with the company whose balance sheet is too stretched. alix: a pleasure to speak with outlook would give rise to a stronger funds rate path.

you. dan pickering. of confidence in thank you. inflation getting to 2% would do the same. here to wrap up the month that paypal overvalued? was is oliver renick. what was the single biggest and the tesla ceo unveils a change we saw this month? model 3. oliver: a lack of volatility. it has been the talking point is the lower cost electric car for several weeks now. going to be a game changer? ♪ just look at what happened from january to february, not only was there a lot of weakness, but ton -- when you have that compounded with the central-bank yellen thisjanet week and mario draghi whipping out the bazooka and going full , it feels much more similar to the market of yesteryear when you had qe around the world and here and a market that slowly floats upward. that is a big deal.

alix: you sent this fantastic chart to me yesterday. this is the absolute value close to close of the s&p. tens of 1%, we saw or more -- here in march, you had just three. that is really unbelievable. since august, it's been pretty well above that redline. since august, the market took a distinct turn from the quiet bull rally into the much more can you list -- cumulative trading rally. we will find out whether or not people care about earnings. alix: you mentioned earlier to me that earnings revisions

downward over the last year have been tremendous. in many sectors, not just energy-related. oliver: we have a table that speaks very precisely to something we hear a lot in the market. we often ask traders, and you care about corporate earnings, do you care about the fact that we've had three quarters here of year-over-year contraction beyond the energy space? generally, their answer is it is not great, but until we are in an economic recession, perhaps this is a buying opportunity. in a couple quarters, it will be back to normal. if you look at what they were alix: i am alix steel and this saying last year in june, that table shows that they were is your global business report. expecting energy to be positive. industrials. standard imports have cut the now, that is obviously not the outlook for china's credit case. rating to negative from stable. it ine also now seeing they cite this low economic other places as well. rebalancing. hong kong retail sales plunged the idea that this will go away

the most in 17 years. anytime soon, we have no luxury markets were the hardest historical basis to believe that is the case. alix: where does this wind up hit. argentina is close to ending leaving the s&p? it's a debt saga. oliver: small capsave done they have passed a bill to settle with debt holders. pretty well. it's been one of the main themes we start in china. in march, there has been a rating outlook .trong risk on move back looking at small caps and has been cut from stable saying russell versus the s&p, you start to see the euro performing the economic rebalancing will a little bit better. proceed more slowly than slightly bullish sign. expected. they also cited increasing risks which could weaken the economy's oliver: it is still playing resilience to shock. catch up a bit. it lost more than the s&p on the additional challenges to chinese way down. growth and energy markets. >> the data is in great for you think maybe investors are actually switching from this china. we don't have an understanding trait were in the first two months of the year looked at of how much is going into , peoplech trades inventory versus how much is now,ng at sabr stock, but being consumed. this is a big question for chinese data. chinese authorities have plans to continue to increase the things have come down. you have the central banks at your back, reaching for growth. amount of strategic thought they have in the country.

you: i have to talk to that is affecting the overall feel of how much oil china is importing every month. about the vix. kong, retail sales i took a look at the hedge fund fell last month by the most in guys. record high positioning. 17 years. sales plunged 21% in february to these hedge funds are getting crushed. 4.8 billion dollars year on year after fewer chinese tourists that is one of the visited during the lunar new year holiday. principles we've seen, a lot of des not working out as jewelry, watches, and electronic goods were among the luxury the most.t suffered inspected. yourselfto not had argentina's one step closer to returning to the international credit market. around -- had yourself around they have voted on a bill to end late january was too compelling a 15-year dispute with creditors to not be there. from the default in 2001. you had to get some kind of a measures would prevent the protection on the downside because so much of that government from repaying some volatility took people by bondholders. surprise. it is time now for our bloomberg quick take, where we provide nobody expected to start the year that week. -- that weak. context and background. i am vonnie quinn.

guess what? pakistan has been in constant we had that rebound back and now we are here, people rendering at turmoil. conceived as a democracy, it has this is a level we will be able been ruled by the military for to hold. that's wondering if this level half its life. it is fragile and modernizing. will be able to hold. alix: coming up, tesla engaged in an introducing a more affordable antiterrorism campaign that it electric car today. accelerated after an attack in it is revving up for a battle december 2014 that left 142 with gm's electric bolt. students dead. it was carried out by the pakistani taliban. volt. unlike the afghan taliban, it is ♪ focused on pakistani targets. it also claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in a park in lahore. the governor and prime minister that was to improve pakistan's economy. here's had some success wooing investors by liberalizing investment policy. domestic terrorism has limited interest.

he is the first democratically chosen leader to succeed another . his position was weekend by massive protests demanding his resignation over alleged election rigging. that, he denied. here is the background. pakistan was carved out of mostly hindu india as a homeland for muslims. when india gained independence from britain, they have had three a successful military coups. their support of the tally ban -- he early 1990's was to remnants found refuge in pakistan. leader osama bin laden. u.s. forces killed him in a 2011 raid. holds that the military dominance is irreversible. they don't want to stop attacks

by extremeists -- attacks by extremists. theireed them to dominate power. another is that it is part of the growing pains of an islamic democracy that is maturing. the middle class is expanding, and stocks soared four hundred 60% since the start of 2016. that is today's quick take. alix: for more stories visit bloomberg.com. a quick check in on the markets to see what is happening at the end of the quarter. it is pretty much flat all across the board. it is the end of the month as well is the end of the quarter. to theare on their way alix: you are watching "bloomberg markets." biggest monthly gain since october. the s&p and nasdaq, snapping a time for the bloomberg business flash. three straight month of losses. the dow is ready for its second time warner's turner broadcasting unit is leading a straight month of gains, this $15 million funding round or

after a disastrous february news -- for news website where markets bottomed on february 11. for more on the nasdaq come a mashable. let's go to abigail doolittle to startoking at 2 turner will partner with mashable on video as well as with. tesla has to be one. advertising. media companies are looking to abigail: tesla is trading higher digital publishers to reach younger audiences. u.s. mortgage rates unchanged to ahead of the kayla to unveil the slightly higher this week. more affordable electric on a 30 arerate vehicle. everyone is excited to see it. fixed rate mortgage is steady at mark newman is very bullish on 3.71%. the 15 year edged higher to the possibility, and thinks the 2.90%. vehicle could be a game changer. tod erickson is very excited the largest blue diamond ever will go for auction and see the car, but is cautious on the stock that is up 60% from christie's best at christie's in the february lows. geneva. karat.almost 15 care more cautious. nonetheless, it is worth looking at the charts with the shares back above the 200 day moving average, telling us that hires are very interested. julie hyman is having a look at the latest in auto companies. the last time this happened in april, the stock climbed. alix: you are also looking at

that jewelry would look so good on me. paypal? i should get that. julie: it would look fantastic abigail: paypal had been one of on you. we will set up a fund for you. the worst percentage performers in the nasdaq 100. shares have recovered a little. on auto dealers report talksode today, a pullback in these companies -- they met with about the fact that apple pay, autonation's management. the possibility that apple pay, could go mobile by the end of that meeting noted a difficult the year. if that happens it could have a auto selling market persisted material impact on paypal. through the end of the first quarter. ,here is too much inventory this thinking is in line with that has been forcing more promotion at these auto dealers. piper jaffray who had bearish comments on paypal. autonation down. could see paypal slide back penske also taking a hit today. into a trading range formed from its ipo last summer. alix: thank you. the other auto story today is coming up on bloomberg "markets" tesla. the company is set to roll out its model three. there's a lot of mixed , is there a way to regulate sentiment. fintech? that is next. ♪ bernstein said it be a game changer, credit suisse says initial reservations may be a positive surprise.

if the model three is too exciting, it could hurt sales of the more expensive vehicles. to slightlyed negative sentiment going into this. the shares are rising ahead of this. they are still down year-to-date. when you look at how they've done since february 10, a gain of 63%. compares to a 13% gain in the s&p 500. all of this means that tesla is quite expensive, even relative to its luxury peers. this is price versus estimated earnings. tesla has been climbing, now trades at more than 200 times estimated earnings. compared with the likes of ford and gm, they trade well below that on a pe basis. look at furry at 22 times earnings, bmw even lower than

errari at 22 times earnings. it is about going forward, but nonetheless, very pricey. alix: wonder how that would link up if you put apple in that mix. above, considerably. alix: investors are eagerly awaiting tesla's were cost model. behind the scenes, there's a different kind of charge in the air. there's a battle brewing electric vehicle market. there have been jets from tesla ceo elon musk and gm ceo mary barra. he tweets plane is david welch you joins us now from detroit. why the matchup between these guys? david: these two cars are very important for both companies. alix: welcome back to bloomberg tesla, this is going to

"markets." i'm alix steel. prove or disprove this huge it is time for the this is valuation of the company has. flash. investors have been treating this like a tech stock. the business flash. united technology's performance if the model three cells and is -- hashas been plaguing profitable, the bulls will happen right on this thing. been plagued by manufacturing if not, the shorts will be quality issues according to a defense department and/or right. report. report.l it may take a couple years to prove that out. it makes the engines for the f you have gm who needs to sell the volt to meet future fuel 35. it is under pressure to improve the quality as the pentagon economy regulations in plans to spend $49 billion by california. 2400 engines for the fighters. alix: they are both trash talking in different ways. jay-z is having second thoughts three desk them all about buying tidal. mogul ago the hip-hop gm calling the model three more frivolous. elon musk comparing the model bought it from a norwegian media company. three to the bmw three series. now, he wants some of that money volt islon saying the back. he says the seller overstated the number of subscribers. general electric no longer wants not even the same neighborhood. to be considered a too big to fail financial firm.

they asked regulators to drop tesla does see itself as a the designation. competitor to luxury brands ago, they decided to sell because the model s is a very expensive car. elon is not completely wrong. models his cars have the bulk of the ge lending business. it would free billions in capital and remove oversights. that is your business flash update. that go north of $100,000. on banks, a veteran go out atee them $60,000 with extended batteries. dealmaker and authority on the chevy will be much less financial regulations spoke to bloomberg about the money than that. environment for financial institutions and the impact that it is more of a pragmatic car. fintech is having on banks. this thing is roomy, pretty is pressurea norm cheap, a car for every man. on financial services. companies to cut expenses they will compete for people who want electric cars. because there has been so much pressure on revenues. they do attract a different kind of buyer. alix: is the actual competitor the mostly, significant pressure has been a for both of these guys really the royal prices -- lower oil low interest rate environment. prices? there's also such pressure as david: they have not played much huge increase in compliance costs. into the sales of pure electric cars. there needs to be some adjustment to get to the bottom tesla sales have grown nicely in line. the last couple of years, there is, undoubtedly, pressure particularly the model s.

the model s is a luxury sedan. and enormous competition from fintech. great in the been from institutions that are not past couple of years, but tesla part of the traditional financial services industry. has. goes down, the >> what is your view on fintech and the ramifications for model s sales still go up. traditional banks? >> there is no question that fintech poses a competitive have struggled with issue for the banks. cheap gas because that is what the cars are about. i think there is a broader issue here come it's about having pure ,lectric drive, the tesla brand . which is, how should we regulate fintech? which is almost the apple of automobiles. revolution, but attracted as their shouldn't we think about a national charter so the fintech companies are regulated. cachet is different from what it is not just regulation, and detroit has to offer. provides uniformity for them. i took a price-to-book there are many advantages to the fintech company. ratio and tesla is trading at we can deal with worrisome over 27 times g.m. over just one issues, such as -- are fintech time. more exposed than banks to cyber what does the model three have the potential to do for a tesla evaluation? attack? are they more exposed to mlb b orid: this is what approves

sa? disproves the future growth tesla. there are one or two companies that i know well that are it has been a darling for a while because it sells something different. incredibly focused on these issues and have very strong if this company can make a protections. profit, it will prove out that i'm not sure that all of them do. >> you represent some of the this is really something different than a regular nuts and bolts car company. largest and most important ranks. it is a game changer. are they talking to people on capitol hill and in washington, if they have a tough time selling model three, you will see some real problems with the hoping that there will be this regulation? lobbying? valuation going forward because >> i don't think so. they're been a lot of short i think the fintech are a threat sellers who been trying to put downward pressure on the stock. bet the banks need to analysts have expressed some doubt over whether or not they can really make money on this. it's been a hot debate. meeting themselves instead of in four next one going to washington. months, we will see what is i don't see it changing the going to happen with tesla. , we will see what competitive landscape, but making in a better situation where the country as a whole. would hamper the is going to happen with tesla. david: does the corporate bond market have an inequality problem? ability of banks to make money, haves and have nots or put a ceiling on us. thanks we'll figure out another

way to make money. rates will go up. is it possible to put a figure in the credit market rally. on the opportunity costs? ♪ >> there is no question. there are opportunity costs being lost because dodd-frank number ofe a requirements on banks. putting a precise figure is very difficult. that is one of the reasons why banks are not successful in going to capitol hill and being

alix: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." does the bond market have an inequality problem? the corporate credit rally has some investors sang the search for yield has been unevenly bonds.d -- centered on tracy alloway posed this question yesterday. onid: what i think is going is we have seen periodically since the summer of 2013 which is come at times, credit markets begin to more appropriately price assets and credit risk. central bankers and other regulators create a dynamic that encourages the market to think there will be a better time out there. and things snap tighter.

we think there is very little connection between where yields are priced across each of the corporate mortgage abs and other kind of nontraditional fixed income markets. tracy: you think the market is frothy? >> and has been for some time. >> for an investor looking for yield, it gets difficult, right? >> it can. false are lulled into a sense of security that if they are getting yield, perhaps it is tight price --t a tight price come it is safe. they may be taking on risk that they don't fully understand. >> one thing i wanted to ask, you obviously talked to hundreds of companies when you're dealing with credit decisions. what are you getting in terms of

on the ground feedback about where we are in the credit cycle? >> there's two different dynamics there. underlying performance of companies and assets and where credit is priced. in the first one, what we are hearing his performance is stagnant at best. with regard to pricing, it is a half and have not story where those were very large understandable, rated, etc. can access credit at efficient prices. in the last several months, the absave changed in markets where that is not as much the case as it was a few years before that. those assets and company set properties that are in the have never participated in a lot of the run-up in the first place and continue to not participate in capital in the way they had before the crisis. a number of hedge

funds underperform in recent months. is this cyclical or more fundamental, structural? >> what you are seeing is a melding of what people call hedge funds and the more conventional asset universe. trillion,et to $2.5 it becomes not so alternative. it is difficult to outperform in a lot of liquid security situations where there is relatively little edge to be had. you are seeing folks doing things to gain an edge. alix: tracy alloway is with me now. what was your biggest takeaway from that interview? tracy: i thought he was pretty straightforward when it comes to the pricing he has seen in the credit markets. been a lot of talk of froth in the market over the last couple of years. he certainly seems to think that was an issue.

not, credit isve interesting. when you look at the rally we have seen in credit over the last few weeks, it is bifurcated in the sense that yes, high-yield has come back, but if you look at high-yield bond sales, new issuance, it is lower this year than it was last year. , theas investment-grade stuff sold by stronger companies has been higher than the same period last year. alix: a staggering statistic. tracy: think back to the early beginning of this year, january and february and how broken the credit markets seemed, but actually the investment-grade market has been doing just fine. alix: does that mean when we label a risk rally in credit, is that a fair assessment, then? tracy: it is to a certain extent in terms of spread. junk bond spreads have tightened significantly. probably more than investment grade credit.

a lot of people are saying that is just a technical rally. it is off the back of oil. we have these concerns about exposure to energy companies in the high-yield bond market and indexes specifically. when oil prices rally, so did junk bonds. the fundamental health of the market as it is measured by new issuance may not be that good. new issuance is bad? tracy: lower than last year. alix: that part is more bearish but the actual spread is more bullish. tracy: exactly. in the primary market where new bonds are sold, things do not look that great. alix: you know we are talking about this today. oil and credit, the two nerds coming together. buddyl be speaking with clark. we will be speaking all about

oil come all about credit and all about m&a. the former u.s. investor to nato coming up at three clock p.m. eastern -- ambassador to nato coming up at 3:00 p.m. eastern. ♪

>> it is 2:00 p.m. here in new york. 7:00 p.m. in london and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. >> welcome to "bloomberg arkets." from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. matt: here is what we're watching at this hour. markets are ending a wild first quarter, 1% gains after being down 10% in february. as we turn the page will the

second quarter be just as volatile. lisa: caught up in the volatility, coordinate oil is up 4%, the first quarterly gain after last june, will it keep rising or will riseses stockpiles knock crude back down. matt: the model 3, the first for the mass market and thousands of customers are putting down deposits, we ask the question, can the car actually fuel profits for tesla. two