john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. and "with all due respect" to lead brooks, kasich nailed it three weeks ago. >> i got a feeling that when march madness ends, villanova may be the national champion. ♪ mark: hello and good evening. welcome to the wisconsin primary day. ted cruz and bernie sanders are both expecting big wins tonight, while their chief rivals, donald trump and hillary clinton, have been throwing up some buzzer beater attempts. there is more than just delegates at stake.

two full weeks separate today's primary from the next big election, here in new york. we'll talk about all these candidates tonight, but let's start with donald trump, billionaire. the republican front-runner spent yesterday trying to woo voters from the badger state, where his wife made a rare appearance on the campaign trail and spoke on his behalf. from his zeroing on a targeted message about establishment forces trying to stop him. here's trump at a rally in milwaukee last night. trump: thesedonald are establishment people that don't want to see it happen, because they are all making a lot of money. i don't think in many cases they care who wins. they want to keep it going. i am so funding my own campaign, right? [cheering] nobody does this. i guess the last that was ross perot.

i've turned down tens of millions of dollars from special interests, and frankly -- one guy in particular, a rich guy, i see him a few months, he says i'd like to make a major contribution to you or your pac. i say, i don't have a pac. i saw cruz had an event run by his pac. that's not allowed! mark: so, john, the beginnings of a message. if trump does lose tonight, what can he do in the immediate aftermath to minimize the damage of a loss? john: well, i think we know he is going to do, which is to say that everyone is out to get him, that the establishment lined up against him. the other thing we might do is start to hear serious policy speeches, and i think that would be a good idea. not complain or whine, let's see him more presidential, not make the mistakes he has been making. mark: i think the best thing is

to run a great campaign. and also try to take advantage of new york, where he will be ahead in the polls, and try to get back to winning. winning so much that people get bored. i think it's in his nature to spin the results. he doesn't have the advantage of being true. you have the governor and the campaign against him, and he will need to fight harder to overcome these forces. john: i think those things are true, but if the establishment is going to be against them going forward, to the extent that he has a good argument back to them -- not to change their minds, but to other voters, then do what his wife has been telling him. be presidential so that when the establishment tries to take them out, you can have a more credible reply to that, which is, "i don't know why you are against me; look how serious and sober i am being."

mark: do you think he can get through a long interview without making national news? that would also be good. this earned media strategy can work for him rather than against him. john: we said this last night, but be a little less promiscuous with the media. just try to pick your shots and really get something done. everybody knows who donald trump is; you have to acknowledge something. perhaps bracing for a bruising, hillary clinton's campaign manager released a memo last night describing bernie sanders's path to the nomination as virtually impossible. today, clinton was talking about what she learned for her 2008 campaign, about her differences with bernie sanders, and her celebrity crush on george clooney. she also has to deal with the democratic contest in wyoming this weekend. the state holds caucuses -- we know caucuses are generally good for the bern. mark, my question to you, given

the expectation that hillary clinton will lose tonight, what can she do in the same way trump has to do? mark: keep pounding on the message. sanders doesn't have a mathematical path right now. then go on the offense. we will talk later about it. she should take stuff about sanders that she believes, and in this interview, it was that he does not have realistic notions. the third thing is she needs a new york strategy. if sanders wins tonight, she will come into new york on the defensive, polls tightening, and she needs a new york strategy to counteract sanders's strength. john: i think right now she is doing well. she is starting to look to the future contest; she already has to going on in pennsylvania. i think she should just go all in on new york.

if she loses, she has to come to her home state and makes sure she wins it. i think she needs to win it big, too. put all your chips on new york, do the arguments, but really focus in a laserlike way on winning fixing the state. mark: the more sanders wins by tonight, the more they need to really emphasize -- and they are doing it, but that memo was the prelude. they have to say, look, how many delegates he made up? eight, maximum? that's not enough to put a dent in her lead. john: i think the other thing we discussed -- you've got to figure out that strategy of how she will counteract his big crowds in new york, and by doing that with one-to-one voters. mark: now let's talk about the wisconsin front runners. ted cruz and bernie sanders both say the win tonight could be a

momentum shifter. cruz is trying to convince his party that he is the only viable alternative to trump, and is holding his election night in milwaukee while sanders has a rally in wyoming tonight, ahead of the caucuses. john, let's start with cruz. what does he need to take maximum advantage? john: i think yes to figure out -- i know he has a lot of smart people around and thinking about it -- he has to think about where he can win over the next couple weeks, and figure out how to target his resources and his time in states like new york, the others that vote a week later, where he can drum up decisive wins. where can he beat donald trump? where can he beat him by the end of april? mark: when cruz announced, people focused on the social conservative aspect. there was an economic message, he stressed it more in wisconsin. he needs to, in the northeast, become a candidate were people

think -- ted cruz, here is what he would do on the economy. he has to take this moment in the spotlight to talk about jobs and the economy in a way that is big. his iowa night speech was pretty good, but i can't think of any other speech that has been anything but long and meandering. he needs to focus. john: no question that the social conservative piece is not going to be a selling one and a lot of the contests ahead. i don't know what his economic message is. i know it kasich's is, and trump's, but i don't know cruz's. if he has one, he should try that loud and clear. mark: and he needs to decide how much he will go all in in new york. spending time getting delegates away from trump.

john: if wisconsin voters do deliver bernie sanders the expected victory night, he will have won six out of the last seven democratic contests, and his campaign says he has momentum heading into the northeastern territory later this month. mark, same question about bernie sanders we asked about ted cruz. what does he need to do to gain maximum leverage advantage and momentum? mark: i think he needs to figure out, in his election night speech -- it's a risky choice, because it won't get nearly as much coverage. i think that may have been a mistake. i think he needs to send a message to the country that he is focused; that he has a plan to beat hillary clinton and not be so scattershot. the performance of the speech matters. he thinks a speech is a speech, but i think he has a chance to send a message to the new york media that he has a plan for the country, more than just i'm doing better in head-to-head polls against republicans.

john: they are talking about how the republican campaign is increasingly nasty, but by any historical standard, they aren't that nasty. but if bernie sanders is going to be the nominee, he has to make up a lot of math, and he has to reinforce rhetorically and otherwise that hillary clinton is weak in some way. not attack her personally, but ram on the notion that this woman is not the best person to meet the standard. mark: he's not one to be personal. he must take up the paradigm, -- shakeup the paradigm, get people to say, that's interesting. i'm not saying change his message, but he must do something special in terms of the performance, message, staging, whatever. he has got to something so do people in the media say more than he beat her in wisconsin. he has to do something more. coming up, does ted cruz really make the most obvious second choice? we will ask a strategist and a

former democratic congressman, what both of them think after these words from our sponsors. ♪

john: the republican race for president is like "game of thrones." it's surprising, confusing, and a little bit sexy. also there is a big wall.

our guests -- good to see you, gentlemen. so here's the question. right now, if ted cruz wins big tonight in wisconsin, we're more and more likely to see a contested convention. so who, going into that contested convention, is the second most likely nominee? >> it is both. >> if cruz falters, who's there? john: if trump is being challenged, is ted cruz necessarily the most likely trump alternative, or is there another person -- >> i have been impressed with the sophistication of cruz's effort in terms of reaching out to delegates, locking in delegates. he has a real organization going on, more sophisticated -- let me caveat it this way.

what's going on at this delegate game, it's beyond the realm of anybody's experience. so i think, given that nobody really knows what they're doing, my thinking is that cruz was the logical consensus choice of -- if trump falters. mark: in the cruz world, doing well doesn't necessarily mean he will win the northeastern states. do you think ted cruz has a potential to compete here and pick up a lot of delegates, or texas too far from home? >> i think dan is being kind to ted cruz. ted cruz is the one that upsets this thing and calls a brokered convention. you can see that paul ryan candidacy -- i've got to think that republicans are not content with cruz. if that does happen, as a clinton supporter, i think we would be more encouraged to face ted cruz and someone else.

but to your question, i don't think his geographical disadvantage will hurt him. i think his ideological positions will probably hurt him more. i think donald trump is known in this part of the country more. he would naturally be a stronger candidate, particularly in the republican primary. >> i think cruz has a big night tonight. i think you'll probably win all of the statewide delegates, and half of them divvied up by congressional district -- i think he wins most of the congressional district. i think kasich could win madison. he'll win most of them. he'll have a big night, which is great for the stop trump effort; it will create negative momentum against trump. which will last for about 15 seconds. as we have seen, the race resets after every state. this is an inflection point. this is a moment where the due chapter is written for a new

cash a few days. trump will come storming into new york. i think he is basically unstoppable in new york. he'll win new york, and then there is a reset. cruz will have a big night but i don't think it is decisive. mark: this is something i feel like asking my dog to be luciana pavarotti. pretend you're donald trump skin -- communication director. the trump brand right now is more battered than it has been through the entire time he has been a candidate. what would you, a crisis candidate consultant, tell donald trump to do to get ready? >> come on a few shows like this, give him serious questions

about foreign policy and economic policy. i think bernie sanders hurts himself when he is not able to talk specifically, and frankly, about big issues. i'd force donald trump to understand those things. when you get to new york, talk about how he cannot only be the nominee, but discuss his positions because he understands the issues. i might even comment about president obama's rule around tax inversion, and some things he liked to see. but he won't do that. he made clear that when he asked presidential is when he thinks he hts himself. john: would paul ryan be a strong general election candidate? >> yes, but he won't do it. john: let's talk about it. >> i think hillary clinton is weak against any republican, with the exception of the two we have now.

if you go down the list of all the people in the race, or have thought about running -- her unfavorable numbers are not that much better than donald trump. the contrast with a guy like ryan, who everyone acknowledges is a unifying force, it's very hard to demonize him. he does not look like a crazy insurgent. i think he's regarded, even among people who disagree with him, as a thoughtful guy. he's trying to get stuff done. he is not tarnish with issues like trustworthiness. i think you would be a great contrast. kasich would be a good contrast, rubio, walker. many of them would be a good contrast. -- to hillary. he won't do it because he does not think it is appropriate for him. he's a check on the insanity, a force against the insanity. john: stop with the lying! >> you sound like donald trump!

john: we will let you come back at the live more in a minute. we'll talk about the democratic race, and also trash bernie sanders. the debate in brooklyn, all that stuff, when we come back. ♪

♪ mark: wisconsin primary day -- that is why we are vibrating. we're back with a hillary clinton supporter, harold ford, jr., and democratic strategist -- >> democratic? mark: that's what i said. >> happy to be a democrat tonight.

mark: gentlemen, let's talk democrats. we just talked about the republicans. the race comes to new york tonight, presumably after sanders's victory. john and i speculated about what hillary clinton could do to take the edge of the wisconsin win. what would you advise her to do if she does lose tonight? >> i think i heard one or both of you say there has to be -- when you come in here this evening and for the next two weeks, this is a home state for her, it represents all of new york city. i would be very prideful of that. i'd defend the great interests of the city, talk about its importance to the economy, nationally and globally, and praise some of the things democrats are doing, including governor cuomo's efforts to raise the minimum wage, and how do you raise middle-class wages as well? that's the blueprint to talk

nationally about this hard-edged, pointed economic message that will change america for the better. john: we know you aren't a democrat, but you know a thing or two. when you look at the state, what does hillary clinton need to do? if she loses tonight, she needs to win new york. what is her strategy to win new york state? >> it seems to me the stuff she has been doing, locking arms of andrew cuomo on the $15 minimum wage, hugging hard left litmus test issues, reminding people she has been fighting these fights for decades, in new york as a senator, i agree with harold. i think this is a natural spot for her to remind people of her legacy representing the state. mark: john and i talked about this. sanders has drawn tens of tens of thousands of people. should hillary clinton try to compete with that? how would the campaign respond

if he fills washington park with 20,000 people? >> he is going to do what he's going to do. i don't think that should distract the candidate from anything she lays out and wants to do. mark: but should they stay away from crowd events, so there's no contrast? >> i don't think she should do that at all. she needs to get prepared for this big debate, be prepared for the tactic -- the tack you know will come from sanders about speeches she has given. people go read for those questions, and she's been on the right side of every issue, smart and tough regulations. i don't think you stay away from anything. i think you go head-on. new yorkers love her; this is a state she represents, this is the state that launched her political career. i'd remind voters all across

that state. upstate to downstate. mark: including people she has helped. john: did you read that interview with bernie sanders? >> i did not. john: you read it? >> part of it. john: i'm going to bring another question back to you, as a democrat. what does it say to you -- try not to be a clinton partisan here, and tell me where you think sanders is most vulnerable. is that something we should be worried about, the way he answered those questions? >> i think it spoke to -- and in all fairness, i have only read parts of it, but it seemed to be a lack of preparedness, a willingness to dodge questions, which at this point in the campaign -- issues that were off the beaten path, these were primary issues. i read an interview -- it was surprising to see what big

foreign-policy issues, economic policy, the kind of answers that he gave seemed to be akin to someone that has not been paying attention closely. john: thank you. harold ford, jr. and dan seymour. we'll have you back soon. up next, donald trump's new plan for forcing mexico to pay for the border wall. what it means for your weekend, after this. ♪

♪ john: donald j trump offered up a memo today saying he would force mexico to pay for that

big, beautiful wall by cutting off the money immigrants send home to their families. among the many voices criticizing that was president obama, who said this during a white house press briefing. president obama: the implications with suspending remittance, many of which are from legal immigrant and individual sending money back to their families, are enormous. first of all, they are impractical. the notion we are going to track every western union bit of money being sent to mexico, good luck with that. john: i would like to point out that in the age of paypal president obama's talking about western union. my question is whether trumps call for remittance is good policy? mark: it's no policy.

the president point out one of the flaws and it might be good politics in the short term because trump has claimed he would have a way to pressure the mexican government and i think it is a talking point. if you assume if trump will, if he is the nominee, have to convince the electorate he can get things done, it is predicated on i did new york recent -- new york real estate deals and you bring every weapon to bear, you make threats and cajole. this is the kind of cajoling threat he might be able to convince people it would be realistic. john: it is comical, a joke, it is ridiculous and impractical. i don't even think it's that good of politics. what he needs to do is grow his vote. mark: he doesn't need to grow it much. john: he doesn't want it to shrink.

i'm not sure there's anybody who's not already in donald trump's camp who will hear this and say that persuades me that donald trump is serious. he's a serious, thoughtful guy. mark: if there is a model of governance and making deals, trump got deals done, often by threatening people in one way or another. john: it just doesn't seem to me -- it is not a good gloss. there are some number of voters out there who are on the fence, who might the persuadable by trump, but i don't see how this is going to bring them over. you are right -- it's not a lot he has to grow his vote by, but he presumably wants to grow it. i don't see how it advances that cause at all. mark: one thing that will come up if we get to a contested convention is more about this electability question and what kind of president would someone be?

would someone be a serious contender for the presidency? at some point, even though there's more of an isolationist mood in the republican party, if other country start resizing trump's policy proposals and say this is not workable so that when he says the president of mexico says his core supporters like that, you will have some establishment types say this is not a serious argument. the mexicans will criticize it. -- every country does not want you to be president. john: we have heard many say trump has become a laughingstock on the world stage. if he becomes the nominee, it's hard to imagine winning the presidency amidst a chorus of condemnation. mark: worldwide condemnation and endorsement of the democratic community.

john kasich is not expected to do all that well in the wisconsin primary, but he woke up to yet another glowing editorial from the "wall street journal" which praised him for staying in the race. they said ted cruz wants him out because the delegates in cleveland will choose ted cruz if it is between him and mr. trump. if john kasich is an option, he might be favored as a better november candidate. going forward, what does john kasich need to do to position himself to be the consensus choice in a brokered convention? john: it is going to be hard in any instance. he's going to be able to say i'm from ohio, that's important battleground state, but it is -- but if that argument is going to have legs, what happens after wisconsin matters a lot.

kasich winning some more states -- he can't go to cleveland with only one state victory. mark: he needs to accumulate a lot of delegates and he needs to start building bridges to the party. he's got a reputation for being a lone wolf. he and his prominent endorsers need to reach out and say he is the one who can unify this party at a time of real need. john: when the history of all of this is written, it will be how a guy in history of the house of representatives, getting elected not once but twice, how that guy has had so little institutional support in the republican party. you've got to crack that code because all that matters is the support of the organized institutional republican party. mark: and they have to feel good about him. it's amazing to me. john: bernie sanders taking some heat today with the editorial board of the new york daily news

during which he offered some less than fully satisfying answers, some of which on matters of substance stop about his plan to break up the big tanks, he's quoted as saying it is not something i have studied honestly the legal implications of. on capturing isis commanders, he said i have not thought about that awful lot, regarding israel's response to rocket attacks, he said i don't think i'm qualified to make decisions, deferring to israel's leaders on such matters and arguably more egregious, he was asked how someone rides the subway in gotham city, he said you get a token and you get in. for the record, not that i have real understanding of this, tokens have not been used since 2003. i already know the answer because you have tweeted it, but hillary clinton responded in

these ways to any of these questions, what would happen? mark: the headline tomorrow would have been "token candidate." we have seen in past interviews, he doesn't have depth on issues outside his wheelhouse and the clinton people say he's a one issue candidate. he's about a four or five issue candidate but when you get outside of those, he can't answer. to go and give those answers without apparent embarrassment is an embarrassment. john: about the clinton peace piece and the inadequacies, there's two pieces. once he's where he's not as strong on specifics -- foreign policy he has been clearly inferior to hillary clinton. when he comes to new york city,

you have to know israel. israel, in particular, that is embarrassing, not just inadequate. mark: i blow up twitter when i if hillary clinton gave those answers, the campaign would come to a stop while she was in turmoil. let's see how much attention it gets. up next, more lessons to be learned about today's wisconsin primary. if you are watching in washington, d c, you cannot listen to us on the radio. bloomberg 91 -- 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

♪ >> as you may know by now, he will punch back 10 times harder. no matter who you are, a man or a woman, he treats everyone equal. john: that was donald trump's wife last night. here with us as a political reporter at the "capital times." donald trump was dealing with

his problems with female voters on the basis of various controversies he was embroiled in. he had sarah palin with him and his wife yesterday. has any of that done any good in trying to fix some of the damage from last week? guest: i doubt it. sarah palin's appearances here have gone over like a lead balloon. she made it one green bay packers joke and got some applause for that but she acknowledged, thanking everyone she could crash their fish fry. ted cruz has been launching his little women roundtable events, trying to highlight the difference between his campaign and donald trump. at just about every appearance he has done since then, it is a

good effort. mark: where will you be watching tonight to get a bead on who is doing well? guest: i think it will be important to take a look at what we call the wild counties. the suburban areas in milwaukee that are bright red in contrast with deep blue. we can predict that will probably go pretty heavily for ted cruz, but it is worth watching us. i think the western part of the state will be interesting for both sides but it will be interesting to see if trump can pick up any support their. the second congressional district around madison, it will be interesting to see if he can pull that one off. john: this is the last question about the gop but have the dynamics changed in the closing hours? is it tightening at all

or is ted cruz pulling away? guest: i do think he is pulling away. he's been here a lot and done events in madison, especially for someone not trying to pull off the moderate look. he's got all this establishment support -- can trump pull out the independence and do a little bit of damage? sure. i don't think it's getting any tighter as we get closer to the polls closing. mark: just watching the media there and consuming the media, does the fact the clintons were in the state earlier in the week and then came back, they are not putting in a strong effort or is their presence megawatt and people feel like they put in time? guest: i think it's a little bit of both.

people appreciate that the president was here over the weekend, but it has been noted she's not around. bernie sanders has been having rallies and hitting the pavement. having said that, bernie sanders held a rally over the weekend in a 17,000 seat arena and only brought in 4400 people. i think there's rally fatigue going on. it is generally accepted the clinton campaign is moving on to new york and not expected to pull off a win in wisconsin. i think a lot of folks who are going to vote for her are probably not bothered by the fact that she is not here. john: it seemed to me that the polling on the republican side has been pretty consistent. on the democratic side, it looked like there was pulling polling suggesting the race

was tightening. is that your sense right now? guest: i would not be surprised whatever the outcome is tonight. i don't have a great prediction. it would probably be bernie sanders. i would not be shocked if hillary clinton pulls it off. i don't think she will but i think she could. it's harder to read that race than the republican one. john: we will be right back with our friend from the "washington post was quote with what hillary clinton said on "the view" and much more. ♪

♪

>> there are people out there who have this idea that you are not trustworthy and they don't like you for some reason. what is that about in your opinion? miss clinton: when i started running in new york in 1999, people said the same thing. my attitude is if you are going to be in public life, you have to have a thick-skin. i have a sick skin and anyone who is interested, i have a great cream for it. mark: hillary clinton on "the view" and joining us is the chief correspondent from the "washington post" who joins us from the spanking new newsroom. thank you for joining us. let's a ted cruz wins a convincing win tonight. how would you appraise the state of the stop trump movement? the politicos who want to stop trump if ted cruz wins big in wisconsin?

guest: i think if he does well, it is testimony to his success rather than the success of the stop trump movement. the stop trump movement have had unexpected allies in wisconsin in the radio talkshow host to -- who are local and who have played a large and loud roll in going against trump, lest -- less so pro--ted cruz. they have been a factor in this and it is hard to tell. i'm not sure how much money was put into this in terms of paid advertising, but we know paid advertising doesn't count for much at this point. anything that looks like a convincing victory for ted cruz will give a big morale boost to the broader anti-trump forces and that is the key as we head out of wisconsin tonight.

john: what was in the realm of plausibility that could happen tonight that would surprise you? guest: a big clinton victory, which i think nobody has in their calculus. a clinton victory, i don't think is out of the question, it would be a surprise but i do not think it is out of the question. if bernie sanders wins by the margin by which barack obama one -- won in 2008, i think that would be bigger than anyone anticipates and would have a lot of people talking about that. mark: you were in wisconsin and i know you saw the candidate's behavior. i know that none of the five are at their top right now.

are these five tired people in that is affecting their performance? is it the uncertainty of the race? guest: i think you are right in one sense. they all have to be tired. anyone who has been participating in this race, whether it's a candidate or campaign staff or even journalists is very tired at this point. it is not as though it's going to be the end of it. they are pacing. they are trying to think about how you play each event. hillary clinton has tried to downplay expectations by not being there very often and i think that affects the way she performs even when she is there. bernie sanders is going from event to event and has had an active schedule, but it has to be wearing on him.

on the republican side, you put aside the problems donald trump has had and that would make anyone look less effective or less at the top of their game. john kasich has played wisconsin -- halfheartedly is not fair, but he has played it not energetically. i'm not sure ted cruz is off his game. he's a pretty consistent performer and i think he has been that in wisconsin, but the one event i saw last week which was a sitdown roundtable with his wife and mother and carly fiorina, that seemed a relatively flat event. john: i know you suggested that you -- that we are all tired. that you seem bright eyed and bushy tailed. looking beyond wisconsin, bernie

sanders does win, we will have a hotly contested primary in new york. none of our viewers remember the time there was a hotly contested democratic primary in new york, which was 1992. what would that look like for two weeks, sanders and clinton going at it with hammer and tongs? guest: there's nothing like the new york press core for a contested democratic binary. -- primary. it will be the highest volume campaign we have probably seen all year. the difference between now and 1992 or 1998 is that it is being done in the age of social media and around-the-clock cable. it's going to be at such a saturation level and high volume that i'm not sure people will be able to sustain themselves.

we know what it has been like in wisconsin for the last week or 10 days. you pick the number in new york -- just because of the nature of the way new york operates. mark: come up and we will buy you a nag cream and condition. we will be right back. ♪

mark: coming up, emily chang talks to the ceo of home advisor. sayonara. ♪

♪ is wednesday, april the sixth. this is "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. ♪ rishaad: right, singapore and sydney this hour. japanese stocks at two mudflows. the yen at its highest. two monthe stocks at lows. the yen at its highest. do