tv On the Move Bloomberg April 12, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EDT
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call or go online and switch to x1. only with xfinity. ♪ guy: welcome to on the move. we're counting you down to the european open. i'm guy johnson alongside hans nichols. italy strikes a deal to clean up its banks. maybe atlas is an even big enough to shoulder the nation's debt. nomura is expected to cast desk to cut around 1000 jobs. -- cut around-- 1000 jobs. who will fill the void?
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hasn't the easy money already been made? .ood morning hans today is all about the banks. italian banks, german banks, japanese banks. hans: banking is a zero sum game. it is not like cohosting. time you talk is time away from me. what is good for deutsche bank is best for a number of. nomura.or we may finally have something good to report about budget bank. -- about deutsche bank. guy: it is going to be interesting if that's interesting as they walk away from their fixed income. look, the italian baking story looks like fun. huge moves yesterday when it came to the italian banking sector. that rippled around europe. let's show you everything european markets are opening this morning. veryis interesting is a
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flat core barely budging. likeap test the dax looks -- the dax looks like it is going to be firmer. it doesn't look like a rip roaring start to the european day which is interesting given what is happening with the italian banks. hans: what is happening with the yen, we finally have a weaker yen. we are seeing that filter through almost 1.5%. brent down a little bit. want to show you how much stronger the brazilian real is on that news. , at least certainty some way forward in brazil good that tells you the story. we will be talking about that this hour. let's get the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: brazilian lawmakers have pushed the president a step closer to impeachment after the lower house voted for her -- the brazilian real has beat
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estimates after speculation. she denied wrongdoing and scandals and says impeachment would amount to a coup. japan's largest brokerage number of plans to shut its european equity operations. along with job reduction in the americas, could come as soon as today. shares in tokyo rose on the news. british prime minister david cameron has defended his tax affairs to parliament. he told them he delayed a response to questions about the due to the anger in seeing his late father's name. >> since 2010, i have not owned any shares or investments. the publication of prime minister's tax information is unprecedented but iuy: it has be
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you this morning. bob parker, advisor of credit suisse asset management. you can get all of the news relating to what is happening in the buildup to the referendum on bloomberg. hans: it will be crucial to look at the every day and every week. up next, france looks further out. the nation is selling bonds and 2016 details after the break. ♪
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hans: welcome back to "on the move." reporter: brazilian lawmakers have pushed the president a step closer to impeachment after a in congress. a seven-month high on speculation rouseff will be out of. she denies wrongdoing and says impeachment would amount to a coup. according to a person with knowledge of the matter the move, along with job reductions in the americas, could come as soon as today. about 1000 employees could be affected. ws.arson tokyo rose on the ne british prime minister david cameron has defended his tax affairs department. to parliament.
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he told the house of commons. >> since 2010, i have not owened any shares or investments. the investigation in this way is unprecedented, but i think it is the right thing to do, but i am not suggesting that this should apply to all mp's. reporter: a jury must decide whether led zeppelin ripped off of the band width opening guitar part two "stairway to heaven." they claim it was copied from another band in 1969. jimmy page is expected to recount the origins at a trial scheduled to start in los angeles next month. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on bloomberg at top . guy: let's get to our chart of
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the hourl. -- of the hour. it is about french fixed income. we are talking about 2066, yes you heard me correctly. in many ways, this is incredibly logical, given that rates are so low in many ways. pushing out the duration of these bonds makes perfect sense. >> absolutely. france is not the first country do so. we saw ireland do so last month. to offer that, it just shows that most of these countries are trying to block rates. they are not going to go anywhere over the next few years. deposit rates were cut last month. overall, that is the min reason.
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-- that is the main reason. investors want such long-term debt? that we just the fact have negative yield around the eurozone. ecb qe is another thing that is pushing it lower. overall, that is why investors are looking further out into the curve. if you look at france itself, overall french debt has returned about 4%, but french debt has returned 12% over 12 years. it could be a decent incentive. guy: so, you think there could be decent demand for this? >> we have to wait and watch. we are not sure when these options will be held. we think it might be later today. it is quite a long maturity. this is going to benefit pension funds, for example.
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guy: how will the average majority -- how much further will we start to see the average being pushed out?she >> if island could do 100. guy: the u.k. has one of the longest debt profiles. it is going to be interesting to see whether france and other countries go down this road and we start to see this story. not?lgium has 99, so, why guy: yes, why not? let's bring you an update on italian banking stocks. we're looking at a fairly decent bounce, hans. yesterday we saw decent gians being maains being made. maybe the market is liking what they are hearing.
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maybe this is the foresight we thought we could see. hans: that would be my point. either the market is extremely satisfied with the number, or they think it will be plussed up somehow. we have to wait and get more details. guy: it will be interesting to see if the mpl legislation can be pushed through. if he can get that done, there might be more in the tank as well. up next, we will talk about what is happening in brazil. the currency has hit a seven-month high. we get the latest, next. ♪
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guy: 8:30 in london. welcome back. you are watching "on the move." here is a picture of the markets. we are now down by .2%. the italian banks. are the standout story this morning. what else is moving these markets? caroline hyde is going to tell us. caroline: miners are continuing to grab my attention. anglo american is a top performer on the stoxx 600 on a percentage move basis. we have seen it moved the most in a month at the moment. ango, $660 million is how much it is bringing in in terms of rough diamond sales. overall, it seems as though a slight movement into a recovery of the miners continuing to pay out when it comes to anglo american and the recovery with italian banks.
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rising the bank significantly today. popolare is up about 2.5%. they believe it will help banks start to recapitalize themselves and deal with nonperforming loans. we also have a note coming out of barclays saying that the deal could create more synergies than you would ever have expected, more than the 365 million euros per year that is promised. that is pushing the barclays note and pushing popolare ever higher. lower, 2.4%g tugged lower. the numbers are not living up to expectations. first-quarter sales rose 3%. guy? guy: thank you.
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some breaking news this morning. we are getting details out of nomura, in terms of the way it has reorganized its business. it is releasing a business plan for the americas and for europe. it will review the european and u.s. strategy and close businesses in europe. the japanese and asian businesses will not be affected by the strategy review. it will concentrate on the core businesses and explain the strategy details we now understand, on april 27. earlier on we had reporting suggesting that nomura is looking to cut 1000 jobs in europe and north america. we will wait to see if we can get confirmation on those numbers. hans, another typical day in the banking sector. this ongoing restructuring story is affecting so many more businesses than mabye we first thought. hans: right now we have mark
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clarity from -- we have more clarity from nomura. those reports have been confirmed. we are still waiting on confirmation about the number of job losses in the european equity division. guy, moving on to another big story we will be spending time on. brazilian lawmakers have pushed rousseff a step closer to impeachment after she has been d in congress. she has hit a seven-month high on speculation that rousseff will be ousted. >> this government has no political base, and no credibility. nobody believes this government anymore. as their own leaders said during this debate, but his government does not know how to have a dialogue. it is arrogant and authoritarian. it is not accept divergent options. hans: let's get more from our
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emerging markets editor. how likely is it that rousseff will indeed be ousted? >> we are looking at about 70% probability at this stage. there are a lot of different guesses at that probability, but at the end of the day it is about momentum and which way this whole affair is going. if you look at it clearly, it is going against rousseff and that is why the market is reacting positively. they are beginning to see it is nearing the end game. but if you look at the vote yesterday, it was slightly more in favor of impeachment that was expected. it will now go to the lower house of congress and we will be a vote on sunday and we will get a better sense of how this will end up. hans: are there other asset classes or are there other traits we should be watching on just how this story is trending? there something people can
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look at on their bloomberg and get a sense, "ok, dilma rousseff is that much closer to being shown the door?" >> there are a lot of metrics you can look at. the vest but did not move yesterday because it did not have a chance to react to the vote. the etf is doing rather well in tokyo, up 3.3%. at the price of insurance against a resilient debt and they are down out to the lowest since september of last year. that gives you the sense that market is in favor of what is going on. they have seen some clarity, some and to this process, but then of course, the big challenges are the small matter of the economy and getting some real policy done in brazil. i was there last week and people were saying, everything is absolutely logjammed.
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the government is not doing anything at all, it is obsessed by this impeachment debate. hans: thank you, justin kerrigan. guy, that is one other asset class am going to have to ask you about -- to explain it to me. but i think we have something else who can walk us through these political challenges. guy: good luck with the former. guest can help us out with that. morning! we have moved one step closer. as our reporting fog suggests, we're looking at 70% in favor of impeachment. are we looking at a different phase? >> it is a confirmation of the trend that was started one month ago when the news broke out of involvement and dilma's involvement in the process.
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i do agree with this assessment of maybe 70%-70 5%. one interesting thing about this, is most investors will be very interested to see when this probability shifts towards 90%-95%. that means what happened last night is an important stepping stone. but it is not a surprise to the market. we were expecting this process to go to the lower house. this will happen friday and it will be pretty much, voted on on sunday. but yes, we do expect this probability to grow. the question is, what will happen to market positions,
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right, given that the background in brazil is still pretty bad ? guy: yes, so you get to 90% and you flip the strategy. is that the trade? uis: i do think once we get the realization of impeachment, there will be a reshuffling of positions here. there was a massive move in credit for swaps, a big flattening of the local curve. the dollar brazil is now trading around 3.50. it has been a very nice move already on the back of the political change, of the expectation of political change. notrtunately, the macro has collected yet. the current account surplus reacted big-time on the back of massive disruption on import growth, which is down to the floor. which obviously helps the current account surplus and balance. but in general, it is being --
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conditions are very tough in the environment. especially if you link low growth with the fiscal pressure. we are in this mess in brazil because of the fiscal side. we still remain very concerned conditions going into next year, but we are still looking at 70% of this trade. hans: this reminds me of greece where there was a great deal of uncertainty regarding the fiscal path forward, but there is also demand. is there a fair amount of pent up demand because of the political paralysis? our do they need to sort out their fiscal issues before we can start talking about domestic, aggregate demand? luis: we only see a bigger push on domestic aggregate demand if the global markets indeed rise. tides can obviously be
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a huge boost to economies in an economy like brazil. think youeral, i do need to stabilize fiscal expectations. unfortunately, that will probably suggest that further fiscal packages in the near future will have to be held off. probably not something that will happen during this current time period we are nothink e ar there yet in terms of fiscal consolidation before we solve the growth rebounding. fixing ourt of are focus on brazil. where does this trade take us? if you are moving from brazil, if you are a tourist and looking for another trade, where should
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we be looking? side, from the strategist g3arstill believe the are given the right conditions to emerging markets on the currency side, on the bond side to remain on a positive path. think it is the moment to look into the turkish leader. obviously, brazil have gotten a little bit of that love for the hike yieldinigh yielding back. and we do like the russian ruble. given the support coming from g3 and the convergence of policy at very low levels in g3, this is obviously lending a lot of support to a high yielding currency. i feel there are quite a few interests and opportunities out there. hans: thank you, luis
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trading session for equities. anglo is doing well. materials are generally a little bit higher. they continue to rally after yesterday's bijan gains following this atlas deal, but the miners are generally higher. there is a mix. lvmh is the standout story on the losing front this morning. it had slightly disappointing numbers overnight. let's get you caught up on what you need to know. juliette: alibaba has agreed to take control of indonesian operators for about one billion $1 billion. they will pay $500 million in a new shares, as well as purchasing stocks from en existing investors. they sell goods such as closing in six southeast asian markets,
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including malaysia and singapore. the luxury industry slowdown has claimed another victim as lvm declined have following the terror attacks in europe. 4.1%was below the estimate of 20 analysts. tesla is claiming a recalled that will affect -- tesla is blaming a supplier for a recalled that will affect many suv's. third row seats failed to stress test. all the affected customers are in the u.s.. nomura has confirmed it will close operations in europe. the pam's -- japan's brokerage on this onl focus april 27. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: let's get more on the
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breaking story on nomura. michael moore joins us here. i is then we will market the details until the 27th. what does this tell us about nomura and what is happening in the wider market? >> apparently, it is a european equities story. you know, if you talk to people in the business, they say if you are not a top three or our player, -- three or four player, it is top tough to make returns. it is really hard to generate the necessary returns. mura had some of that business from the lehman acquisition back in 2008, but they weren't quite of scale. and it is partly a nomura story because they have been in and out of these illnesses through the years -- these businesses
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through the years. it is a continuing story for them. hans: if you have this in your report or's notebook -- if you have this in your report er's notebook, let me know. is it more that the equities market is not a profitable? >> i think regulation is partly driving the fact that the a seculararket is story over the last decade or so. you have to boost that volume in that business and if you are not one of the big players, it is tough to do that. partly it is let and partly, nomura wanting to focus on where they are a little bit stronger. guy: is there a ripple effect? it is not a massive operation, but what thousand jobs will go. is it going to have a ripple
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other into making people's lives easier? and on the flipside, willett strike into equities? -- will it strike into equities? is this the right place to be? >> you do have a lot of competition in this business. deutsche bank is making a push. credit suisse has followed off in the last couple years tried to push into the business. there is a lot of competition. mabye if you can pick up a little bit of shares from this move, it will help, but nomura was mnot a big enough player. it is just one less player in the market. a lot of people said capacity needs to come out in some of these businesses where it has gotten super competitive so the firms left can get some pricing power. guy: how far into this
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process are we, do you think? >> i think we are probably midweight through. -- i think we're probably midway through. announced, but they are executed over two to three years. we are still working through the process of people laying off the folks and closing down the businesses. it will partly depend on whether the markets pick back up. if you don't, we might see more of these. hans: bloomberg's michael moore, we thank you, sir and sharp tie. the european commission has drawn up new laws requiring large companies to make their taxes public. we're live in brussels, where the proposals are due to be announced. ♪
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guy: welcome back. you are watching "on the move." we are 53 minutes into the equities session. in just over 30 minutes we get into the inflation figures for the u.k. that will be published this afternoon. we have the imf economic outlook ahead of the spring meeting. we also have three federal reserve presidents speaking. harker will be talking. williams out of san francisco and lacker out of richmond. those are the three you want to watch later.
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they are starting to reinsert their voices into this debate. hans, what is going on in brussels? hans: you mentioned the european commission. they will announce large companies to make public what they pay in taxes in the eu. the proposed legislation is expected to include eu jurisdictions claimed to be tax havens. jones, who is this going to affect and walkway through the process. the commission publicist this, but -- the commission publishes this, but it still has to be passed by the parliament? >> yes, they had this proposal in the works before the panama leaks, but now they have expanded it to try to also include tax havens within the regulations. they have been saying they want to have all of the eu state companies to disclose their taxes in all of the 28 eu companies and now they want to
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do that additionally, within any territory or companny deemed a tax haven. one of the things they need to do is come up with a list of tax havens. they tried to do this last year and there was criticism about exactly what the definition of a tax haven should be. they are still struggling with that and they wilma have that list today. i are planning on having that by the end of the year. in the meantime, they will put bones of thisthe no proposal to get more transparency in the tax ring. hans: there appears to be no detailed reporting for taxes paid outside of the european union. how do they solve this one? >> that is the thing. the way this has been set up, this would be an aggregate number outside of the eu. they are not so keen on this
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kind of reporting, reporting in this detail. the eu, especially germany and france, they said they would like to take this to the g20 level and have a general guideline on this, but that will take more negotiations and more time. the idea of course, is 2to zero in on the tax havens and make sure people are not hiding stuff in there. with whatl big talk is happening in the u.k. at iceland and other places. the eu is trying to have its proposal be ahead of the game on this. hans: your tax avoidance is my tax evasion. we can talk about that, coming up. stay with bloomberg television route the morning. we will be speaking with jeff curry. don't miss that conversation, later this morning. ♪
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