scarlett: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, this is bloomberg markets. crude crying -- crude climbing to a new high after saudi arabia and russia have agreed to an oil freeze. being raisedstions about the rescue fund and we will head to rome for details. and emily chang will be speaking to peter thiel and his take on silicon valley, yahoo! and the apple encryption case in just a few minutes. you are looking at a live shot there. are halfway through the u.s. trading day, so let's check in with julie hyman to get lookpshot on how we will

at the data coming up. julie: we got a snapshot this not lookingit's great. will is still driving u.s. trading and driving at higher. the dow has been leading the gains throughout the session. i'm looking at the s&p and oil throughout the session. it was right around here that we got those numbers from interfax that there was an agreement to freeze oil production between saudi arabia and russia. the russian oil minister has refused to climate -- refused to comment on this. nonetheless, it is fueling gains in oil prices. if you look at oil alone, you can see the movement upward we had in those oil prices with oil higher by 3.5%. going to send it back to you guys because it is time to hear from peter thiel. let's go to san

francisco where emily chang is speaking with peter thiel. peter: it is ferociously competitive. it doesn't surprise me so much as it scares me a little bit and would scare me as an entrepreneur. people who are incredibly motivated and a lot of it gets channeled into a hyper competitive context. whereteaching a course they have a nationwide test where 10 million students take 4000 go tod the best beijing university and that's a much so muchhow their works. my book did extremely well in china. there's a tremendous interest

in this globalization and technology i alluded to toward the end of my talk where china has been the single country that benefited the most over the last 35 years. one of the interesting things was they talk -- they thought the globalization trend was coming to an end. shutmeant china has to from an expert oriented economy toward more of a consumer economy. then there's the question of technological growth which is so much more important. china can bias that copy and maybe i will have to start innovating 20 or 30 years from now -- that's not a bias

that china has. vonnie: -- annalee: the markets in china have been extremely volatile. what gives you the most cause for concern? peter: i'm somewhat concerned about the frothing us of the markets not just in china but everywhere. i don't think if there is a either in china or the u.s., i think doubles are a psychosocial phenomenon. the 90's, we had 300 tech ipos in the u.s. involvedc has not been

in the tech boom this time around. , buttle more in china there's no bubble centered on technology. it's probably centered on the 0% interest rates. that's a strange one because that permeates everything. so our houses and so our government bonds. in some ways, silicon valley is quite far from that. the things that are very far from cash. emily: you predicted a broader economic collapse and that whoever is elected president will be a one term president. do you still believe in that?

peter: you don't want to make to big a production. i think it does feel like there's a lot of strange issues being pushed under the rug. there are a lot of challenges we have -- the trump-sanders phenomenon suggests voters are angry and maybe not just angry because maybe there are good things to be angry about that we have trade policies and immigration policies across government that doesn't do what it is supposed to. there are a lot of challenges like that that would be good for people to address that we have not been addressing for some time. emily: you are known for being a

libertarian who sometimes backs republican candidates. given money to carly fiorina and ted cruz in the past. will you give more money this cycle? who are you supporting? peter: i'm going to try to stay out of it. always -- it always seems very important and always seems counterproductive. it permeates a lot in our society and is just a way to get people angry and polarized. i find political philosophy interesting. if i was involved, i would just blow my brains out. it would just go crazy after a while.

the thing i like so much more about the tech industry is there is a sense of agency. it feels like you can do something on a smaller scale, but i think this is where people cumulatively make a difference in solving various problems, changing our society, etc., even if it cannot solve a problem. not every problem can be solved by a startup. many of the problems that cannot be solved by startups i worried are not going to get salted all. the number of startup deals dropped to its lowest level in four years. how does this cycle play out? how many unicorns are really unicorns? peter: there are all of these

different ways of measuring this. we have been able to raise a lot more capital for the founders fund. no decrease inbe appetite for venture capital the amount think that has been raised in aggregate hasn't gone down that much. i think it keeps going for quite a while. when we looked at our overall portfolio, we keep seeing the is ifate portfolio overvalued.t the companies are doing well and not fully valued. capital has a disturbingly unequal set of outcomes.

your best investment for a fund -- it is disturbing it is -- that disparities are that big. were the 100th employee at google, you would have done far better than if you were the aunder and ceo of a series venture backed startup in silicon valley. the questions end up becoming very important. what are the right companies as an entrepreneur? what are the right companies to join. more important question than what specifically are you doing? a's very difficult than professional context. in the startup context, the atiable that dominates is

the right company, you would have been better off answering telephones at google than being the senior vice president than at web fanned or something like that. from they different way people often think about it. when you ask how many unicorns will be left or what is going to happen in this general context, the real question is what's going to be the next company that will be on the scale of a google or facebook? will these companies get to be bigger overtime? have aucceed, we will very successful ecosystem as a whole and if not, we will be in trouble. i occasionally go speak in germany. -- inuent in german in german and there's always questions about what we can do

to make it more like berlin. it's not always a numbers game. create going to thousands of jobs and that is what is going to create billions in revenues and profits over time. that is what you really need. you do not need thousands of startups. facebook, have backed spacex, the company that you have cofounded -- how are you going to invest that money differently and what are you optimistic about now and what are you pessimistic about now? peter: i would start with the caveat that i'm nervous saying anything about trends. always tempted to have these trend related questions and, at the margins, there are things we want to be more open to. thing hase correct

been to focus on silicon valley if wekeep wondering should look at some places that's silicon valley why most venture capitalists do not want to do it. there's always a question should ande doing more things there are places where things get so prohibited in -- so prohibited in silicon valley that it's difficult to look at things outside or are the network affects so powerful that they dominate everything? maybe there is some point where it chips. i do think two thirds or three next-generation i.t., consumer internet, we have done a lot in various forms over

the years and enterprise software, all of these kinds of categories will continue to be big and we will continue to try to do things in non-i.t. areas. bige are some very challenges in investing in those areas but they tend to be fairly contrarian. no categorical rules. you need youry -- best investment to return your funds. that is such a hard thing to do rule number one. you need your best investment to return your fun. rule number two is there can be no other rules because you cannot restrict your geography, your sector, you want to be flexible on everything else. you have invested abroad,

in germany and the u.k. the are you seeing outside you k -- outside the u.s. that peter: not seeing here? we've invested in several and we have invested inside and outside the u.s. and our big investors in stripe here in san francisco. there are these specific questions that can vary quite a bit. one company we invested in is a lending credit business in brazil and on some level, we like that business model better than comparable ones in the u.s. because brazil was a much smaller market and you can get to scale and take over that

market much more naturally than a business doing something similar would be able to do in the u.s. something to work, you have a bigger market. in many parts outside the u.s., you start with smaller markets and it may not get to be quite as big. if you can take over markets, it is easier. starting with remittance from london to the baltic states, these two way remittance payment streams, there are various combinations that were quite small but within their respective communities, you could get known and take over that market. harder to., it is differentiate and you have a different set of challenges. your firstjust hired

woman partner. what is your take on the lack of women in the venture capital industry and what is the industry's responsibility? peter: we all have a responsibility to do more. we have two women in senior roles, but we all need to be doing more. the context this debate comes up in his that disparities are really big. i don't know that it has to be 50-50, but you have these glaring disparities and there's something about tech that matters a lot. it's not like a huge male, female disparity in chess players. that doesn't matter quite as much as the only industry really working in the u.s. tell me silicon

valley focuses on this too much, this is where i tell them it's because silicon valley matters so much and that the disparities are really big. i was looking at the unicorn i mayf 150 startups and have missed one or two but by my count, only two of them had to out of 150 had women cofounders. 148 two -- 148 to two is a big imbalance. and there are all the questions of what to do about it. i'll lay think it is on the level of the founders of the company that matter most. venture capitalists are important, getting women into ontoeering roles and

tracks in universities are important, but what has defined the culture in silicon valley is not the venture capitalists, it is the company founders. that is the place where the disparity is most extreme. that is where it needs to be fixed if you want to change the culture. emily: yahoo!, a company that was once important to silicon valley, and one week, they are accepting bids to buy all or part of the company. you tell me yahoo! is not a tech company anymore. how do you see this? what has yahoo! become? peter: it's still a big media company and i think marissa has done a terrific job there. been by far the best ceo they have had maybe ever. probably the best one they ever had. was far and away

the best of all the people they had as ceos. good in the context of how marissa was -- even marissa can't get this restarted, we are not going to hire someone else. you have thec is best person you can get as ceo, than the logic is if it's not working, you look at other possibilities. but it is a very difficult space where there is this old media-new media dynamic that is very tricky and if you are in the old media, you want to be in that is really old. you want to be doing radio or billboard advertising where things are so far away from new media that there is no competition at all. the parts of old media that were most challenging were the ones that were relatively close to veryedia and told

similarly kinds of things you can read on the internet and the challenges that yahoo! was a new media company in the 90's. that is somehow still close to new media which is the most challenging place to be. structurally, it's a challenging place. you are five years and an 80 fellows have raised 140 million dollars in venture capital. you are giving the commencement speech at hamilton college. tot are you going to say them and how have your views on education evolved? peter: i have to be careful what i say there. i have never said there is a one-size-fits-all approach. mischaracterize my view that everyone should drop out of college and start a company. i don't think everybody should be starting companies.

a lot of companies don't work. we need more people to start good companies. tractere's the super dynamics that have gotten us to a bad place where education has become a substitute for thinking about the future and the k-12 system is geared toward college and the problem as life does not end in college. for a longou look time after that and do many things after college and there is a strange way where we live in a society with a lot of anxiety about the future and put more and more money into education as a way of dealing with this anxiety where few get into the right college, you will be saved and if you don't come you are in trouble. colleges are corrupt as the

catholic church was 500 years ago, charging people more and than this professorial class that doesn't do much work and you tell people that if you get a diploma, you are saved, otherwise you go to hell. you go to yale or you go to jail. [applause] thised to push back on idea that the only way you get saved -- the catholic church 500 years ago or today the only way to get saved is by getting a diploma and getting into college. manye the will be productive things for people to do. startupis not to have a church or have this alternate one-size-fits-all thing, the future system will be one that is much more heterogenous.

we have a tagline that the promise was flying cars and all he got was 140 characters. not against twitter, but it would be good to have flying cars and it would be good to have many other things. havelaim is not that if we flying cars that's going to save us all. we need to be doing more in many repairing, including the entire financial system from the ground up. peter thiel, everybody. thank you so much. [applause] alix: you have been listening to emily chang talking to peter thiel in san francisco. before we get into more details, breakingo talk about news out of brazil. the president is accusing the

vice president of a cu attempt. like wesaying things ,re living in times of treason very strong words from a president that could -- that is looking at being impeached by the house. impeachment without a crime is equivalent to a cu and her supporters denounced the attempt as one that is against the republic. she's exercising her role by pointing out the vice president is attempting a cu without actually naming him -- p.tempting a cou you were shaking your head and jotting down notes the whole time. >> he has an unmatched track record. saying theseof

extreme statements as if they were the most natural thing. for most people, it would have been marissa mayer being the best ceo yahoo! ever had. to,that i am more synthetic that tech is the only industry working in the united states? he's such a true believer in the importance and necessity of tech and tech investing and almost dismisses everything else. another strong statement, he thought starting companies would be likely to address policy problems more than politics. that's a very strong point of view. scarlet: let's listen to the comment peter thiel made regarding a bubble and where it is. peter: if there is a bubble today, i don't think it is centered on technology. neither in china nor the u.s. bowls are a psychosocial phenomenon.

you have to get the public involved in a crazy way. and where he did identify the bubble was in cash, around monetary easing. >> i'm a tech guy and i could not figure out what he meant by that. he seemed to think startup tech stocks were overvalued. >> he did contradict himself -- he said there's no bubble intech , but there were a lot of tech startups that were overvalued. listening to him is interesting and worthwhile. that's a significant record of finding those who will play the game. scarlet: and we follow him because of the investments he makes now.

some outside the united states, some inside the united states, -- >> in terms of how it is easier to make money, i thought it was a pretty intelligent thing to say. look at those who have built copycat companies and then selling them to ebay which has just rolled them up. it takes over the brazilian market and maybe some mobile player will come in and that's a nice way to make it work. he's probably not saying a brazilian tech company will become the global standard for that industry. he also said he's starting to look outside silicon valley for the companies that will make a difference here. the cost of living has gotten so high. scarlet: he mentioned the network effects and how that would be a reason to stay in silicon valley.

>> you can walk down the street and get a new engineer. everyone is working on the same set of problems and there's an it generallylem -- means regarding internet companies that the next member strengthens it for every other member. that.of companies like is talking about . one plus one equals three when there is a collective focus on a set of problems and that is true in silicon valley. it seemed very reliant on next-generation i.t. but he also went to random opportunities in higher tech and rockets, really going counterintuitive. >> i don't think it's random to mention i attack. i -- mentioning a biotech.

a lot of i.t. and internet oriented companies, a lot of those companies are private or the most interesting work is being done by giant companies where you don't see the most amazing innovation happening. he has properly identified that. i would not it seems like he is doing a pretty good job. he landed a rocket on a barge the other day. scarlet: what i found interesting was his final comments on education, and with the the college catholic church 500 years ago. >> yeah, i wrote that down. we need to push back on the notion that the only way you get from is getting a diploma

alix: college. he was not alix: disparaging going to college, but was saying it is not the be-all end-all, you will mature afterwards. saying: he is almost that everyone uses it as a crutch. you use it as a substitute for planning for the future because you think this is the answer, you don't go beyond that. >> i think he was saying the system pushes people to see it as a crutch. i think he is right. it is right that someone is pointing out a different path. look, entrepreneurship can be an option for a few. scarlet: thank you so much for joining us. >> what a fun conversation. scarlet: marissa mayer, the best ceo that yahoo! has had. alix: if she cannot fix it, no one can. let's have a look at what the stocks are doing with abigail

doolittle, live from nasdaq. abigail: yahoo! is undoubtedly one of the big story stocks. stocks are higher on the year. they are in the process of essentially selling their core internet business, and in alibaba, preliminary bids are due on april 18. amongn and daily mail are bidders. what this could all come down to is price. marissa mayer is looking for $10 billion. it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. as for the stock, it is fully bullishly out. alix: also in the news, at. what is going on with that today? abigail: the fbi wanting to hack

into the phone of a terrorist -- all of that has died away. really now the focus is on the fiscal earnings. over the last few weeks, expectations have those that they will beat expectations for iphone units for the quarter. this really puts the pressure on apple to deliver on april 25. as we look at a chart, we see a bullish highs. investors could be disappointed. alix: don't miss another great interview in the next hour. we will be sitting down with the russian operant reader -- entrepreneur about his space exploration project to talk about rockets. we do have some breaking news continuing to roll out of

brazil. dilma rousseff continuing her harsh rules, accusing the vice president of a coup attempt, without naming him. very harsh words saying, the coup attempt is against me, and against conspire openly the president. scarlet: some audio of the president outline what demonstration might look like if the liberals that he -- dilma the impeachment vote, likely to take lace this weekend. will she also says there likely be new leaks over the next few days, and she will suffer new attacks. the rumor mill continues, though she still says that in future will not pass. scarlet: we will see how that all plays out. in the meantime, we want to get

to the headlines on bloomberg first word news. mark crumpton has those from the news desk. mark c.: house speaker ryan will a press conference. he will rule out any run for president. he was the 2012 gop vice president shall nominate. he has bbc said he was not interested in a can see. that is set for 3:15 eastern time. donald trump and hillary clinton have double-digit leads in their home state of new york. mr. trump looking to get his campaign on track after some his closestes leave 21% to 54%.kasich on the democratic side, hillary 55% to 41%.s

today's equal pay day. in washington, to honor women's equality, president obama designated the house that served as the headquarters for the national women's party as a national monument. president obama: equal pay for equal work should be a fundamental principle of our economy. the idea of whether you are a high school teacher, business executives, or professional soccer player, or tennis player, your work should be equally valued and rewarded, whether you are a man or woman. mark c.: the designation protects one of the oldest standing houses close to the u.s. capitol. two men have been arrested in the brussel bombings and three others connected to the paris attack. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists

in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. alix: thank you so much. italy's plan to help its ailing banks is getting mixed reaction. there are concerns it will not be enough to cover losses. scarlet: the financial institutions have been crippled and are underperforming compared to their european peers. john, the question everyone seems to be asking and cannot answer is is the fund big enough ? is that the right question? >> that's right. it could even be smaller. according to the latest draft, the fund could be between three billion euros and 6 billion .uros

no one is saying that this rescue fund would buy up all the loans. it is a mechanism to try and allow banks to get rid of the riskiest loans, and benefit from the guarantee for less toxic loans. alix: is it the max, or is their possibility for it to be added to ipo's? >> the draft is not definitive yet. it depends on what insurance funds agreed to contribute and what the staple will be. scarlet: to what extent with the tying government be on the hook if it gets to that point? for theis a problem prime minister. the previous attempt to set up a mechanism, he had to negotiate

with the european union for months without getting the agreement. .t would create problems this state law under -- lender so far would play a minimum role. has beenetheless, this a welcome relief for banks. take a look at the bloomberg here. i have the credit default swaps for the major banks that have been problems. see a huge spike here. we are obviously off the highs of the year. down in therned last few days. it is a welcome relief, even if it is not enough. scarlet: the question there is what kind of a return would come investments?

are they asking those questions? here they're are asking lots of questions. some of them no doubt feeling strong-armed by the government. the government insists it is up to the banking sector itself to put its house in order the prime minister, perhaps the crucial problem in getting into the out of a recession. the banks are penalized by the bad loans, in. on their ability to lend and boost economic growth. scarlet: thank you so much. alix: coming up today on bloomberg markets, the imf giving firing signs of a global stagnation. do not miss the interview. ♪

scarlet: you are watching bloomberg. i'm scarlet fu. alix: i am alix steel. this is your global business report. scarlet: alibaba is betting big on southeast asia's online shopping boom. alix: prices are rising in the u.k. inflation rising to a 15 year high, but remains low below the 2% inflation target. a move that could affect one million employees. alibaba in china where could and it's market reliance. online marketn seller for $1 billion.

it could also buy stocks from investors, including germany's rocket internet. more than 86% of alibaba current sales derive in china. alix: in the u.k., inflation jumped to the 15 year high in march. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace since december 2014. theation remains well below bank of england's 2% target, but it is picking up after hovering around zero. tries to cut caused after years of trying to become profitable overseas. it will impact about 1000 employees in europe and the americas. the move comes after years of stop start expansions including

a plan in december to hire senior bankers in the u.s. the environment has become increasingly challenging. the imf chief economist spoke about global headwinds and the climate. >> as a new global financial stability report documents, the bouts of turbulence that we have over like a steady trend of tightening global financial conditions. one manifestation of those is the trend of increasing capital outflows from emerging markets. cope most have managed to with this, as documented in chapter two, more strains could appear. scarlet: now time for the bloomberg quick take. our focus today is el niño, the weather phenomenon that visits including last, one and this one.

some theorize that it has been stronger in recent cycles. here is the situation. it is being blamed for making 2015 the hottest year on record. whether agencies predicted a return to neutral conditions in the second half of 2015 with a 15% chance that a la niña phase could develop. weather patterns opposite to el niño. on the new occurs when there is a weakening in wins that turn amount in the west. it shifts moisture bearing storms away from certain places towards others like argentina and japan. it causes drought in places that provide goods like coffee and palm oil.

from 19 a 7-19 88, el niño is blamed for $33 billion in property damage. scientists have debated since the late 1990's if global warming is impacting the intensity of el niño. there is no consensus. it was suggested that they would grow more frequent and stronger. isolating the role of global warming may not be possible. that is the global business report. for more stories, visit bloomberg.com. alix: coming up, check out this chart. the stock has fallen, and cannot get up. shares are on life support. we will reveal the mystery stock next. it has to be a health care stock.

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alix: this is bloomberg markets. i am alix steel. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. let's head to the markets desk were julie hyman has some news on the company movers. care stock.health scarlet: a pretty safe bet. julie: in particular, you can see the drop that the stock has had year to date. there has been concern about the specialty pharmaceutical business. session, it is seeing a sharp pullback, adding onto the declines that it already seen this year.

the forecast was reaffirmed. the problem is, the forecast was below what analysts were anticipating. analysts were looking for about $228 million. short.lt short -- fell analysts some this is down, but nonetheless, not helping shares today. it is hurting other specialty pharma. scarlet: thank you so much. alix: i would not have guessed -- scarlet: you guessed health care company, you were in the right ballpark. curry talked oil prices.

russia and saudi arabia have oilhed a consensus on an freeze. in the agreement is likely to be a soft one, and may have some unintended consequences. opec, andu look at look at where oil production will be, you have 500,000 production.day in that is coming from iraq, nigeria, as well as venezuela. all else, people get more supply out of opec. it does not reflect other disruptions. regardless ofy is what comes of the meeting, you still have disruptions to come back online. >> the basis of this is even if

we do have some agreement to freeze that holds, it does not do anything to rebalance the markets. right? >> when we think about the market rebalancing, the largest component is coming from the ..s. bmps we anticipate them to be down. that will rebalance the market. i think the key is to focus on the largest component that will add to the rebalancing. >> what price of oil is optimal? for the u.s., for canada, for saudi arabia? question. a great that number has been changing a lot lately. i like to answer the question for russia. where was the optimal number

about three years ago, 150 years ago. where do you think it is today? $10 per barrel. it has come down tremendously. is you see big shifts. >> i love the idea. now, we take it to a marginal analysis that there is this price for russia, this price for saudi arabia. who is the marginal actor? >> i would argue it is the u.s. shale player. >> when they have the responsibility for cap accountability versus sovereign nations who really don't have a player. >> yet, and venezuela, if you get a new government in there,

$20 for crude. the stronger dollar led to weaker currencies in emergency market currencies, which drives down the cost structure. mentioned shale producers in the u.s.. it is easy for them to come back online. >> that is the point. it is fast cycle production. it comes on and off quickly. we think about the outlook going forward, i think the key is can you get some of the lower cost production on more quickly? .ur view is not prices moving higher towards $50 per barrel. it will not be until later that you are able to get the supply up. doha nonetheless, the

potential freeze is making headlines. some of the rhetoric i'm hearing is they will not go forward with the meeting unless there is a backdoor deal. they have been meeting for weeks. how effective it is, as jeff was saying, is a hole other story. scarlet: as we listened to jeff curry, crude oil prices have risen to the best position of the session. they are all gaining at the best levels. there are still a little weaker compared to the 10 day average. alix: much more coming up in the next hour. ♪

alix: welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪

scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. alix: here is what we are watching. u.s. stocks are higher as crude oil climbs to a four-month high fueling the rally. there are reports that saudi arabia and russia have agreed on oil freeze. scarlet: controversy at tribeca film festival, should a movie about the connection between autism and bac vaccines be shown alix: we will talk to yuri mil ner on a $1 million hunt for alien life. scarlet: let's go over to the markets desk. stocks are at the highs of the session right now. not what you would have expected

after the reaction to the alcoa earnings last night. we are seeing an uptick in volume as well. we have been seeing lower than average volume but that appears to be changing. it is due to almost exclusively to groups. energy is 92% above the seven-day average and materials. a lot of activity in those two groups. that dow is the best performer. it has been climbing throughout the session, up nearly 1%. in terms of what is leading, chevron is a big part of that. those shares are higher along with oil prices. we got caterpillar rising in today's session and boeing is also up so that is contributing to the push higher that we see in the dow. tail wagging the dog today as we had the report that

we have not yet confirmed. we don't know if this is what is going on. russia and saudi arabia have supposedly come to an agreement on a production fees despite that audi arabia has made comments to the contrary in recent days. oil is at the highs of the session. in other commodities, we see a push higher in natural gas today as well as copper. effectk on trade is in today with commodities rising. flipside, looking at fixed income, the 10 year yield is pushing higher once again today. we have seen this recently and some selling is happening. we are seeing the dollar move higher against the japanese yen breaking the winning streak that the yen had beyond -- have been on for seven straight sessions. risk on scenario

in terms of oil rising. the dollar is also rising. it's intriguing those things are happening. scarlet: thank you so much. alix: let's check in on first word news. mark: the brazilian president is a accusing her vice president of a legally overthrowing the government as days before the fall house is expected to start voting on the president's impeachment. without directly naming the vice president, the president said a amounted torting treason. the clinton presidential library has released hundreds of documents relating to donald trump. the documents include mr. trumps invitations to white house events and an autographed copy of his book. from his materials

flirtation with the presidential run in 2000. president obama's supreme court nominee merrick garland bet with senate judiciary committee chairman chuck grassley who remains opposed to holding hearings on the nomination. is scheduled to meet with republican pat toomey of pennsylvania and lisa murkowski of alaska. senator murkowski originally supported holding hearings but later changed her mind. a troubling new report from the am's useations, boko har of children as suicide bombers is climbing. young bombers were girls. the report comes two years after nearly 300 schoolgirls were abducted from the school in nigeria. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. populism in the u.s.

and europe and the slumping commodities in japan are three of the risks to global growth. the imf cut its global forecast again today. >> when we see global growth at the same level as it was in the 1980's, it is cause to worry and think there is room for a more buoyant picture. where it is that the world economy loses its list, we cannot say. it's not where we are now. the risk that we get there as we continually downgrade our estimates of actual and potential growth is clearly rising. perspective, we are joined by a chief economist. do you agree with that scenario question mark >> i agree with

the risk factors. he should lower the growth numbers when you have that many negative risk. why are you whittling down your forecast as opposed to taking it down dramatically. there is more global risk than people want to assume. we were trying to tally up how many times the imf has done this. 4 times in one year. what does the speed of these downgrades mean for the u.s. economy? >> the u.s. economy is part of the problem. we have a growth environment where the first quarter of the year could have been flat. by the time it's revised, it should be 1% but that's below are potential rate of growth. we are pulling the overall equation down. as our most other economies. there is no real present -- positive growth story. issues of thent market is that many investors think central banks are impotent and cannot do anything despite

the lack of growth globally. is that a risk that we are so negative that any upside surprise in the u.s. will turn everything around? >> i don't think we are as negative as we should the. i think monetary policy has run its course. i think we need to break to a new form of policy in order to get the u.s. economy going. the problem we face is not supply issues. we face demand issues. we have an imbalance of supply versus demand. supply is exceeding demand and we are doing nothing to stimulate demand. lowering the cost of financing invites more investing but you need demand. purchasingnsfer power back to household and create infrastructure investment. you need to create things that will add to the underlying growth in the economy and add jobs, in particular. scarlet: the confusion over where that demand will come from

means you've got financial markets all stuck in a range. we are moving between these different levels. will any of the date of this week provide any meaningful catalyst? >> tomorrow's eta on retail sales is probably the most pivotal for the week. it will codify what we know about the quarter would have us a good clue as to where we begin the second quarter. what we will discover i think is that although people held back on retail sales, the question is whether they came back and spent it on auto retail. i think that will disappoint and set the stage for a disappointing entire first half of this year. alix: why are you so pessimistic when the unemployment rate keeps falling? fallen in the last couple of months. it's due to people leaving the labor force. alix: but they are not leaving

and that's why the rates not going up. >> it's not going down as quickly as they would like but we have seen more people leaving the labor force then coming in. it's not a positive reason why we have had the road we have seen take place. with regard to the inflation issue, we are at the cusp of 1.5% inflation. butave a rise in the cpi not in personal consumption. the cost ofing goods so we are not getting full benefit of the rise in inflation. the federal reserve did the right thing and held back raising rates. if they do it again, it will be a mistake. scarlet: cheaper price of good sounds like a lack of pricing power. that does not spell good news for the corporate earnings season. >> i think the first quarter will be pretty disappointing.

i think you have to be careful about what people will do going forward. people talk about the oil market and the stock market and they are going to for tech. higher,on oil is going it's not just the story of production quotas fluctuating but the dollar value is going lower. if the dollar denominated commodities goes lower, the oil comes back up. the dollar going lower gets back to your point earlier about monetary policy and whether it's effective. other countries are trying to devalue their currencies and they are actually going up. alix: thank you very much i feel depressed after talking to stephen. up, brazil isg inching closer to impeaching its president and we will have the latest from sao paulo next. ♪

alix: it's time for the metal bulletin. julie hyman has a check in a big move in iron ore. seen iron ore prices rise to their highest in about a month spurred in part by a pickup and purchases from steve mills -- steel mills in china. you're looking at the year to date pricing in china. it's up right 36% and rising to the highest in about a month time. at iron ore over the past three years, we have seen a change in fortunes. analysts were predicting another struggling year for iron ore. after the big decline. they expected it to continue and it has defied predictions.

china came in and was more willing to have economic stimulus. we have also seen some of the chinese economic data points positive. we have been watching chinese rebar prices which is used in construction them that has seen an increase this year by 28%. all of this has been fed back into many of the companies that either produce finished steel or iron ore miners. in particular, u.s. steel makers have done well and have been helped by the tariff changes in the united states. and has given them a boost analyst commentary and steel prices continues to rebound. as for the miners, they also have done well although it has

been inconsistent. alix: rebar prices? awesome. usseff in delma ro brazil has accused her vice president of a coup. scarlet: what's the reaction in brazilian stocks? they are rallying. they are trading near their most essential level in two decades. this is on speculation that rousseff will be ousted. comments about the regarding the vice president. what is the next step? a vote will take place this weekend? we are expecting a three-day

vote in the lower house starting friday in extending into sunday. that will either pass or not pass. majority and/3 then moves on to the senate and it takes a couple of weeks to process it. if they accept the impeachment request, rousseff is temporal early -- temporarily removed from office. alix: what is the chance that it had the -- that it passes the house? >> right now, there are several people trying to tally up the votes. aen the newspapers is doing frequent update. they were at 299 votes at the last count this morning. 342 are needed for the impeachment to pass a lower house. scarlet: we are getting there. one thing we cannot get a handle on is what she is being accused of. she doesn't face charges of corruption?

>> that's right, the impeachment process is against are based on fiscal maneuvering she did in the first year of her second term which was last year. she bypassed congress and tried to cover up budget deficits that brazil had an shifting money around between state banks and the treasury. that is what the impeachment is based on. alix: she had many strong comments today how this is a coup and accusing the vice president without naming him. inshe is removed from office the vice president hates the presence job, is he any better? >> that's a great question and that's something we don't know. we don't know what kind of government he would it -- he would be able to build and get support if he can build a coalition government. the popularity polls that came out over the weekend showed rejection against the vice president is almost the same as rousseff. they don't want either.

in all ofhere is lula this? his rejection is about 60%. he has started to outline what he would do in the government. that is the audio that was accidentally leaked yesterday was trying to unite the country. he is from the largest party. we don't know what he will be able to a cobbler to be takes over. scarlet: thank you so much. lots of events to be aware of. alix: absolutely, still ahead, controversy at this year's tribeca film festival and robert de niro will talk about the documentary for becoming famous for not making the festival. ♪

scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. alix: the annual tribeca film festival kicks off today in new york. documentaries are getting a lot of attention today.

a film the festival almost didn't show is getting attention and carol massar sat down with robert de niro. : we welcome everybody on bloomberg tv. deniroht up with robert and jane rosenthal, the founders of the tribeca film festival and i asked him about a controversial film that looks at vaccines and vaccinations and autism. i asked them about why they decided to remove it from the festival. >> i wanted to put it in. i saw it. i don't know enough but i know a bit and what i was hearing that made it a valid entry and i never get involved in entries. is to tell them to go see jane.

that this was something that people should at least see. there was a strong reaction from people who i did not expect to have such a strong reaction the way i have been told. i don't want to get the festival in a controversy that would be a misperception about it. i said let's pull it and it got attention oddly enough there are i don't know enough about certain things but it makes me want to know and there is another movie called " trace amount" which i found interesting. maybe it's not all true but there's something there and i asked questions. it starts a discussion about it. >> we are known for our documentaries. we are also now known for documentaries we did not take.

we are strong documentary filmmakers and that's with the festival is known for. . : did you want to include it in the first place? >> we pulled it and that's ok. ofone of the biggest lessons any kind of leadership is to admit when you made the mistake or you see things differently and change the course. at this point, everybody is happy. i feel like you guys have changed the course of what happened downtown after 9/11. feel you have, i multiplied in terms of offerings and social media. could the festival get too big? >> we definitely want to keep it a certain size. moviesably screened less than we have in years past. i forget the exact number but we screened less movies.

we are competing for people's attention here in new york. we have amazing panel discussions. carol: you continue to embrace social media and you do things on snap chat. what role do you feel like social media and technology should play in the festival? i love it. i love virtual reality or any kind of new form of telling stories. our whole festival team feels that way. as ceoyou stepped down so why name andrew? continueer for me to doing what i love to do, andrew will be running the day-to-day and he's a great partner and

it's exciting to work with him. what to to get out of " playing madoff?" >did you like and by the end? >> i don't know, it's a complicated character. i don't pretend to know or understand or anything. i just tried what i felt was what it was, that's all. carol: the cofounders of the tribeca film festival that started 15 years ago. of time talking about that documentary that got killed from the festival. he has an autistic child so this is something near and dear. festival weree a the have all kinds of films covering so many things. there is a documentary about bill ackman and his crusade

against herbalife. technology and is the 40th anniversary of the quote taxidriver." lots of interesting stuff. cory: i thought the comment about leadership was very powerful and speaks to leaders of any kind of enterprise. bigl: jane rosenthal is a residence in the film industry. scarlet: thank you so much. still ahead, the bulls are betting on the canadian loonie and we will look at what's behind the currencies rally next. ♪

worldfrom bloomberg headquarters in new york, this is bloomberg markets. scarlet: let's start with headlines. house speaker paul ryan

will hold a news conference national republican conference in washington. two aides say he will rule out any bid for the presidency even at the party's convention this summer. he was the 2012 republican vice presidential nominee. he has repeatedly said he was not interested in running for president. the news conference is set for 3:15 p.m. washington time. donald trump and hillary clinton have double-digit leads in their home state of new york according to a new wall street journal/nbc news/marist poll. donald trump is trying to get on track after some stumbles. on the democratic side, mrs. clinton leads bernie sanders 55-41% among likely voters. the new york primaries are next tuesday. today's equal payday which mark so far into the year women must

work to catch up to men's earnings from the previous year. in washington, president obama designated the house that served as the headquarters for the national women's party as a national monument. the nation is protecting one of the oldest standing houses near the u.s. capital. a day,news, 24 hours powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news peers around the world. alix: thank you so much. the imf is warning of global stagnation again cutting its world expansion forecast saying a prolonged period of slow growth has left everyone exposed. scarlet: jeff rosenberg gave his thoughts earlier. the good news story out of the imf is the recognition that what china policymakers did over the course of january in reaction to the environment to pboc announcing in

february and what we saw what we saw as fiscal policy, the , have alleasures served to stabilize that china economic outlook. was the fed was reacting to the uncertainty that the outlook had for u.s. to mystic conditions. people get confused as to why china should matter. it does not matter as much for the direct economic linkages. the u.s. matters more to the chinese economic situation more than the other way around. it matters in global financial market conditions. the beginning of this year, we hadn't negative down days can -- we had negative down days consecutively. thefed was concerned about negative channels and that's why they backed off. jon: how much of that is a sales pitch? are they concerned that this economy cannot handle a cycle?

the ecb says the same thing, they are not worried about europe and fundamentals are getting better. it's very much the same pitch. chair cannot say she is worried. that would damage confidence but is there a recognition that 25 basis points or so, 4 hikes, the economy cannot take it? >> let's understand the linkages. it's not as if the external global events have no connection back to what the fed is doing. the connection is the impact on the dollar. if the fed is normalizing at a pace they announced in december at 4 hikes per year when the rest of the world is weakening and they are cutting, you get a very large dollar response, a stronger dollar. it's a stronger dollar for the rest of the world amounts of bad

situation and it tightens their financial commission -- conditions. it makes their indebtedness more burdensome. my point is that a tightening cycle has an effect on the cycle. not just about global economics. it's about markets in the u.s.. they are concerned about what cycle does to markets. >> they are concerned what a tightening market does to global conditions. the tightening in the u.s. has moorman negative impact when it results in a 25% increase in the dollar as it has over the last 1.5 years. to a foreign economy where your debt is denominated in dollars and the value of the dollar goes up, it's as if you're indebtedness goes up and that's where it kicks back over to the united states. stabilizing,ina is

is this a green light for the fed increasing? >> not so much but it is certainly less of the red and yellow we saw in january and february that caused the fed to pull back. if you have that stabilization in global financial conditions, the fed has the window to tighten. most participants are not expecting anything out of april and pushing expectations for the fed to hit that window in june. how do they communicate that? does that kick you back into another cycle of dollar strength and commodity price weakening and tightening in financial conditions? how they thread that needle of tightening again in june of that's when they do it will be very tricky. they will not be able to do it subsequently if it kicks off another round of dollar strength. alix: that was jeff rosenberg. the first time in almost a year, the canadian dollar bulls outnumber bears.

oil stabilization in the move toward a diversified economy is driving that trend. they are betting the policy makers will see this growth is front of the this year's currency rally. alix: is this a signal the market has found a bottom? let's go to toronto. is it the bottom? >> we are looking at data from the cfpc and it's the first time that big investors and hedge funds are more net positive on canada since last may. it's a canadian kind of bull market oath close to zero. it's practically neutral but we will take it. it comes in the back of a strong rally in the canadian dollar, up by more than 7%. haveglobal economics driven that but for us, there have been good economic signals. we have seen a diversification of our economy specifically as routed in ourlly

economy. we have seen a transfer away from that into export sales trade numbers in non-energy parts of the economy. this is a day ahead of our central bank giving their own view of the outlook and there will be something for the bulls in there is the expectation. the bank is expected to be cautiously up eat. -- upbeat. government is stepping in with fiscal support backing up the monetary support. biglet: we have seen a rally in the loony but in terms of context, it's all relative because it still 60% cheaper since 1971. how does the bank of canada pull that in? an expertely, as nation come our central bank will never get in front of a microphone and say we want a week current c. they don't mind a weak currency. for it to show up in the numbers but we are seeing the rotation. our export sales numbers are strong. increase of 8%

non-energy industries in this country in january. it's not too bad but the real numbers to watch tomorrow from the bank is their interpretation of how much this fiscal stimulus will help. it's their outlook for the full year and next year and also the revisions expected through the first quarter. in january, the expected 1% first quarter growth and we are looking for it now to be more like 3%. you will see some interest and optimism and maybe action on the currency. rate we are looking at a cut of 22% probability by september. that has been moving higher. does that change tomorrow after this optimistic data? >> one of the things that's unknown is although we are starting to price in the effective fiscal stimulus, it people don't know how soon it shows up or how genuine it is in

terms of what it translates into dollars, we have seen real stabilization in our economy including jobs. in march. 40,000 jobs that's pretty good. we have seen export data pickup and we still have some red flags. couple of places the central bank is watching is the long, low. of rates. it has fueled aro in so household indebtedness remains high in a housing market remains a concern. some people now are watching to see if the bank will think about raising rates. that thatsus is not will happen soon but in terms of the expectation of them lowering, we will watch how they reframe the outlook for the rest of the year tomorrow. alix: thank you so much. you can catch her on bloomberg north at 6:00 p.m. on tuesdays and wednesdays. scarlet: coming up, we will speak to penny pritzker about u.s. trade policies and why she is still optimistic about the asian trade deal.

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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. alix: foreign trade agreement specifically the transpacific partnership have gotten a lot of attention from all the presidential candidates. none of it has been favorable.

>> i think it's incumbent upon business leaders to talk with their employees about the facts about their business. >> talking about the transpacific partnership come it's an election year in you have limited time. how realistic is it to think you can get that through this year? >> i am an optimist and i think we can get it done this year. at the end of the a, putting aside the political rhetoric, the facts are that if american companies don't have access to the fastest-growing markets in the world, we will fall behind in the attic competitive disadvantage. as it relates to the impact on workers, one of the things that one needs to keep in mind is that globalization technology and other factors are affecting our workforce.

i think trade is being conflated into that issue. we need to separate the issues and say it's important that we help our skilled labor force get the training they need to be competitive. trade agreements also make the american worker more competitive because, in the trade agreements are labor standards that insist countries we trade with elevate the conditions and pay they have for their own workforce which is extremely important to american competitiveness. david: talk to us about the politics and the process. you've got limited legislative days so as a practical matter, is it realistic to think this will get done in a lame-duck session after the election? >> i'm not the expert on exactly when this will get done. i think it will get done this year. this is the window for this agreement. if you peel back the cover on the trade agreement, you realize

how important it is for american companies. that realization exists but i think there is a lot of political rhetoric in the way right now. david: let's turn to cuba which is another subject that is important because you visited. where are we on a u.s. companies doing business in cuba? how fast of a moving in and how successful is it? >> our cuban relationship is one that has evolved. the president has created a policy of engagement. with our engagement, we now have direct mail and direct flights and more americans can travel to cuba. we have some manufacturing of occurring there. it's limited. we are limited in what we can do by the embargo which is something the president has called for congress to lift so we can have greater commercial

engagement. right now, you are seeing remittances have become unlimited so you are seeing greater entrepreneurship occurring in cuba. you are seeing some small manufacturing, some act to the t -- some activities in telecommunications, more and agriculture but there is more that could occur if the embargo were lifted. and travel and tourism. that was u.s. commerce and wery penny pritzker will continue the conversation with the u.s. ambassador to china coming up at 3:30 p.m. eastern. alix: let's go over to the markets desk taking a look at stocks moving on earnings today. julie: alcoa has not been a driver over but the stock is moving on that company's earnings after the bell yesterday. informally kick off

the earnings season. shares are down 4%, cutting its forecast for global demand for aluminum in 2016 and in -- and decreased its market deficit projection because of slowing chinese demand. the company says the consumption of aluminum will rise 5% this year. it had been 6%. that is weighing on the shares of the company's sales missed estimates. we have been watching networking companies. juniper networks came out with preliminary earnings and said they were below estimates. they cited a weaker than anticipated demand for enterprise which is corporate demand and timing of deployments of certain tier 1 telecoms. justf that is weighing not on juniper shares but shares of other networking companies. the shares were down earlier the session but have bounced back a little bit.

reports its full results on april 28 at 5:00 p.m. fastenol is a maker of tools and it's coming in below estimates on all counts whether you are talking about earnings per share or sales or gross margins. those shares are trading lower by 3%. one exception to the negative earnings is perry ellis. the company came out with its final earnings. it came out with preliminary numbers and matched the estimates. it reaffirmed its forecast. those shares are up by about 3%. scarlet: thank you so much. alix: coming up, we will talk to a former aide to fed chair jenna yellen about whether the fed structure is in need of reform. ♪

scarlet: a former aide to janet yellen is breaking ranks with the fed. he is targeting for areas of public make the fed more and more transparent -- alix: a seven-year term limit and make entire fed subject to internal review. yesterday we spoke to professor levin about why the fed may need to change structure. >> the proposal i have presented here and this was developed with a significant amount of consultation with the fed up coalition which was helpful, this proposal is intended to be sensible and pragmatic and nonpartisan. it is trying to be careful not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. it's to focus on specific reforms that are needed.

the federal reserve is the only central bank in the world that is not a fully public agency. the federal reserve, the regional federal reserve banks are literally, the shares are owned by commercial banks in each district. the boards of directors of each regional fed, six out of nine come are chosen by the member commercial banks. manifests itself in bad policy? what is the practical effect of this unique ownership structure? >> i would say the number one problem is that the federal reserve needs to have full public confidence in order to be sufficiently independent from political pressure. the extent to which the federal reserve is opaque, its organizational structure is hard for the public to understand fundamentally undermines public confidence and over time, hurts

the fed's ability to be effective. scarlet: let's talk about what jenna yellen has said in the past about the possibility of changing the structure of the fed. can reconsider the appropriate structure. i simply mean to say i do not regard the structure as broken in the sense that it is failing to put in place good monetary policies, failing to collect the information we need about what's happening in the economy, to craft good policies. you described your proposal as being pragmatic and nonpartisan which sounds like doa in washington. is the basic just that you think the fed should open up a little to avoid a much more radical form of transparent -- loss of transparency?

maybe meet the critics halfway to prevent some of their harshest critics from politicizing with the fed does? >> another way to explain this is that my proposal is about good governance, transparency, and accountability. those traditionally are not part of an issue. in many other aspects of government over the years, both parties have come together to institute reforms that promote good governance, accountability, and transparency. alix: we are joined by joe weisenthal. it's an interesting take. joe: it feels like the idea that it's a halfway thing. critics of the fed want to get in there and politicize it or audit it or get political control over monetary policy. something like this that makes the fed transparent might be a

nice middle ground. i like the point that he made that there is such a thing as good governance. even if you cannot identify something really specific, does not mean that an organization that's over 100 years old cannot be help. there is always improvement. what's interesting is the ownership structure of the federal reserve. you have members of banks like who sitsman the ceo him aboard as a director. resents potentially a conflict of interest. the point he wanted to make that if the fed wanted to be independent, has to great -- it has to gain credibility of the public and it cannot do that when there are these arrangements. at first blush, it makes people skeptical about how it's run. alix: today we will focus on jpmorgan reporting tomorrow and the whole bank reporting season.

banks have at if enough energy loans that go bad. i will look for that. so many goode banking stories from that and the energy situation and what's going on with the european banks to the euro question of how banks should be structured and how much capital they should have. there is lots to discuss today. scarlet: still ahead, we will focus on thanks and economies and speak with the imf chief economist and what he things are the biggest threats to the world economy coming up in the next hour. ♪

>> welcome to bloomberg markets.

from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, welcome. david: oil's really leading stocks higher despite warnings from the iaf -- imf that growth is slowing. he was be to the imf chief economist. he says there is no longer much room for error. lisa: the brazilian president moves one step closer to impeachment. she accuses her vice president of staging a two to at how the political class unfolds and what it means. david: we will hear from peter andl and here what he likes here about the current investment climate. let's head to the markets desk. julie: stocks are hovering around the highs of the session. that has been happening throughout the