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tv   With All Due Respect  Bloomberg  April 19, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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>> surrounded by tv cameras, both made the start this morning. suburb.tons and the
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this afternoon, i caught up with donald trump junior with his family a few blocks from here. some striking communication workers of america protesters tried to drown us out with their horns but we spoke briefly about if today felt different from the other election days they have seen so far. >> it is home, right? always good to be home. the amount of support walking down the street today, it's good from both sides of the aisle. outside restaurants and saying, we can't wait to vote for your father in the general is really exciting. >> you have never seen his name on the ballot before. >> i have people sending me pictures.
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i wanted to bring the little one along so she could see the process. it's getting them involved early. i only watched the baby and did not hear a word he said. it's hard to believe that ted cruz and bernie sanders were hot off their wisconsin primary victories. those were the days of old when talk of clinton's troubles and never trumps energy seemed to still be mounting. whatever momentum there was back then has largely dissipated with trump and clinton on top. how did we get here? let's pause for a moment to reflect on the whirlwind starting with the republicans. >> republicans go to new york, trump goes quiet. that can geterson hillary clinton does not want to run against is donald trump.
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>> he goes on tour. >> no place like staten island. >> new york values. >> the people i was talking about are the liberal new york democrat. >> get out of the bronx. >> cruise plays foosball. cruise gets more delegates. >> it is a rigged system. it is a crooked system. country,e unite as a america always wins. mike: the empire state front-runners are striking back. massive food. trump has struck back and is in a better position in almost every way than he was two weeks
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ago. how did he write this ship? john: a lot of things have gone right for him. i will start by saying that he executed with a kind of dea ftness that was not usually his thing. beating him, playing the inside game, states like colorado and wyoming. it to his advantage rhetorically and made the argument that plays right into the populace energy. it is right on brent for him. -- right on brand for him. mike: he acted like a new york incumbent, talked about his love of the state, message discipline. in place. it let me worry about being the candidate. and he had a line of attack that
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he consistently hit to try to put them on the defensive. john: the professionalism of his staff has meant a lot because he gets kudos from people. off the sunday shows, hasn't gone on a rant. it has been on message and not a lot of things that are stray comment getting him in trouble. mike: he said, no more debates and stayed away from leading rivals engage him on their terms. as you said, driving this message, the press is largely sympathetic to that. we mentioned, donald trump's opponents failed to capitalize on that special moment right after wisconsin when the republican front runner was clearly at his most vulnerable. what have cruise and kasich -- weak?nd hkasich done
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john: i have to go to iowa and the comment. the new york values thing. defense.m on mike: he did not come in with a great plan to deal with it. he tried different things and it did not seem to help. john: as has often been the case cruz didn'tsich -- have a plan to deal with that problem and kasich did not have a plan at all. other than going around eating food. mike: one big speech, well-written, not that well delivered. it had bad luck on the day paul ryan announced he was not going to run. if either one of them picks up meaningful delegates, it will be a success for them. john: i will say john weaver had
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some secret master plans. upstate anywhere. say i had aoff and plan. bernie sanders a big win, his sixth straight victory was seen as a big setback for a frustrated clinton campaign that would have much rather been pivoting to the general election message. on what hasesher happened in the two weeks since then. >> how do you get on the subway? for clinton, big apple sites. or sanders, big apple crowds.
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28,000 supporters. >> a debate about qualification. >> she has a technique for being unqualified. the transcript of the speeches with goldman sachs. >> bernie sanders did get to meet with the pope. democratic -- >> time to vote. prise of the questions, assuming hillary clinton wins, what has gone right? mike: a campaign senator moving for reelection, lots of symbolic events and had surrogates galore from all parts of the beautiful mosaic that is new york on her behalf. john: the point i made yesterday, bernie sanders, his
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position on guns has been a weakness for him. there's no place where there is more weakness than here in new york. that andharping on driving that message almost every day. out off votes will come new york city on the democratic side. is thought of as a city of cranky people but it is not. it is a city that loves to live. hillary clinton is going against a bernie sanders who often looks cranky. she has brilliantly acted up the even on days when there is pressure. she has been an upbeat and happy warrior. john: and not going so far as to say the democratic nomination is already mine, mathematically, she has avoided saying
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that. seeing her as entitled is bad. new: she is new york, york right now. we showed you those huge bernie sanders crowds in manhattan and brooklyn. sanders? whyng for did he fail to capitalize on the big wisconsin win? we talked about this halfway through from wisconsin. to pick a fight with her about whether she is qualified, one of the hardest arguments to possibly try to make against her. the choice to do the big rallies at the end rather than the beginning. it is completely dissipated because it is a losing fight. then drop the fight with no explanation whatsoever. culture does not look kindly on an competent campaigning.
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bernie sanders has been a great candidate in many ways but not these last two weeks. the: what we showed in montage there, seizing on this qualification debate was a huge mistake. she never suggested he was not qualified. she rightly criticized him for some of his answers in the editorial. in the same way the clinton campaign has been wrong in the past, you can't say she's not qualified. mistake and gave her the upper hand in rebutting that argument for all of two weeks. made a theory of what new york was about. they never came forward with an explanation of how they could overtake her. that was the past. coming up, we go back to the future.
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that was more with donald trump, junior. a shakeup and tension in the staff. joining us now is our junior-senior combo. actually, our junior-señor combo. advisor the paul ryan and former marco rubio fan boy. >> i still am a marco rubio fan. fan.
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john: donald trump, professionalizing his campaign or causing too much turmoil gekk? definitely professionalizing. getting the rhetorical bang for his book by claiming the system is rigged while he is hiring people at reading the system. he has the good timing and good geography. these two weeks are fantastic for him. it is worrisome for me that is in the anybody but trump camp. there will be more favorable terrain around the corner. aboutwhen you hear internal strife, you just say that's how it is? or has it reached a level of what the noise was that makes you think it could be a campaign in trouble. >> if things go well for him, we
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will say it is a stroke of genius. assuming that trump will win, what if kasich finishes second? there is a contest about points over cruz. what is that due to trump? it gets to nothing if he 1200 delegates. tonight will answer that question and if he does well, we will say kudos to him. if he does well, trump does well. just don't add up to stop him at some point as he regains his momentum. mark: go to 48,000 feet and look campaign.z what would give you the most optimism that trump can be stopped? aboutf you are serious stopping him, you have to appreciate kasich. they clearly aren't thinking like me.
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as convinced they may not be much for stopping trump as they are for cruise. -- for cruz. you all have said this very well on the show individually and collectively. we will have a media narrative. he's got to do well again. all of this conversation around stopping him will have to change. it may not be stopping him but how do we join him, change his message, make him more palatable. john: mitt romney said this week that it would be much better to stop romney -- to stop trump. dan: i think there are places where kasich could come in second and jam up the narrative a little bit about trump. i don't want to understate the importance of that. said, on balance, over the long run, it is a
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problem for kasich to be in the race. california and --trouble cruz when congressional district after congressional district. -- trump will win congressional district after congressional district. maybe he can play for the top slot but he is positioning himself for vp. is no real path to the nomination at this point and i think he is a spoiler. john: it seems to me that if you look at the congressional districts, you fight in those 12 and we will fight in these eight. assuming we lived in a
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world that anyone could record to that sophisticated degree effectively. this is been talked about for months. mitt romney has been focused on this like a laser beam. voters in ohio should vote for kasich, in utah, vote for cruz. it's just trying to coordinate that kind of thing. mark: don't go anywhere. we will be right back with more after this.
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one of thee back,
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episodes where the conversations during the break is almost as good as the conversation on the show. harold ford junior and dan señor. a.k.a. dan my: they hate it when name is mispronounced. mark: we are doing it on purpose. let's say hillary clinton wins big. do efforts to force sanders if not out of the race, but to stop attacking her and stop doing things that would make her a weaker general election candidate step up? i hope what steps up is that his realization doesn't happen. i think my candidate will do well tonight, but assuming she does, i would hope that senator sanders ensuring a progressive just to the white house will overtake everything.
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john: do you predict the claire s of the world will come forward and say, step down. and what happens with his supporters? he can say that he's with her but we have to make sure his supporters feel as much a part of this campaign to ensure progressive values. that is where the focus is. john: good luck with that. harold: but look to the other side is putting. to threat that that poses the progress and the gains we have made. i think senator sanders is a believer. we could compare trump and clinton side by side. has she looked formidable to you? i still believe that
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hillary clinton is extremely vulnerable. her negatives are as close to as high as donald trump and ted cruz. reasons, she is a weak general election candidate. no. only the realization that donald trump is stronger than i expected and will be over the next couple weeks. i know a lot believe he has to hit 1237. i think if he is just shy, it will be tough to stop him at the convention. at some point this summer, we a convention and the general election will probably cruz.ald trump or ted she contrasts better with trump then cruise. i think she only looks stronger
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in the world in which we are imagining donald trump is the nominee. >> she is stronger. is saying that she has faced a formidable opponent in this primary. she faced 18 years ago. she faced one this go around and find herself in much better political shape and from a political fitness standpoint, then she did before. there's no doubt these numbers are not quite. i don't think we will ever see a candidate come out of a presidential primary as long as we have this kind of attention that is a front-runner with numbers were the positives are higher than the negatives. >> virtually zero energy from the base of her party. i think people are just turned off on the clintons.
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>> two years ago, her numbers were off the charts. i don't disagree with you. some of the youth vote and the younger vote. i think that vote will come around. they did not know who bernie sanders was two years ago. they are excited about the progressive message. hillary clinton is right where bernie is on a majority -- >> here is the question. let's say he does what she did i am with youo, and i nominate you and i want my supporters to go. something to to do generate enthusiasm among those millennial voters that have attached themselves to bernie sanders. what can she do to make those people enthused about her? >> till people she's running
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against donald trump. ask look at the side-by-side analysis. and hillaryrs clinton there's not much room between them. >> she's not a democratic socialist. >> i think we call her a democrat. >> i think dan gave us that good like berniet sanders. democratdidate is a and we look forward to a good night tonight. >> loved a have you here. best chance of avoiding a contested convention. ♪
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>> this is the math portion of the exam.
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we wanted to test a couple of scenarios. thedonald trump secure nomination without unbound delegates? the majorityry get without a single superdelegate? how both the candidates might perform in the coming weeks based on current polling and our reporting. here is how it might play out. we will start with the republicans. .onald trump leads ted cruz has 559. if trump wins big tonight, it's theible he could win 80 of 95 empire state delegates up for grabs. his total would be 836. 1237 he needs to avoid a contested convention. he would need 56% of the
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remaining delegates. is that feasible? in the northeast, five states are voting a week from today. , trump is leading in these northeastern states. 172 delegates. we give 104. that would bring him to 928. there are four more winner take all states. they have a combined total of 143 delegates. he needs to win new jersey for sure. that's the largest. 51 delegates. probably lose one of the other three winner take all states. the one nebraska is he's most likely to lose. bring votes to 1035. .ot a sure thing and three states where trump has to win pretty big.
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indiana and california. those are winner take all by congressional district and some statewide. and west virginia where delegates are elected individually. we think trump would have to win at least two thirds of those to stay on track. if he gets less than that, he will have to make it up somewhere else in order to get to the majority. to 1205. him the others are based on the statewide vote. to do in would have this scenario is get one third to reach thetes finish line. stateseak in those relative to the others, but he does have to be competitive. we both talked to the other campaigns.
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where would his rival cedi vulnerabilities are in the way that we played this? i am questioning what the cruise campaign believes. montana, south dakota, nebraska. ted cruz could win all of those states and would be the favorite. thosecan't afford to lose winner take all states. he would have to do so well in the other states. mark: there are two big variables here. does momentum add to the northeast? he will have momentum. does it carry to the midwestern and planes states? does it allow him to compete? more tv advertising? more sophisticated ground operation? can it take his popularity in those states and actually win? john: those are good questions, but curz will have the -- cruz
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will have the advantage in those states and in indiana. let's talk about the democrats. hillaryd to know if clinton could possibly beat bernie sanders without the help of any superdelegates. by 244.p if clinton wins big tonight, it could bring her count as high as 1437, which is about 950 delegates short. even then, we have no real can based on she purely pledged delegates. she would need 65% of the remaining to pull that off. given the representation rules, that is pretty unlikely. assuming a new york win for clinton splits the remaining , she would need the
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help of 211 superdelegates to push her over the threshold. thanrs can convert more 500 of the 713 superdelegates and still lose the nomination. 469 backingady has her. has 31.only that is daunting math. if you are in the sanders campaign and looking at all of that, what are clinton's biggest vulnerabilities? mark: the biggest problem the had is arguing they will win with the support of superdelegates -- they have legitimized that notion. even if he pursue arms exceptionally well, she can win with superdelegates and they will be hard-pressed to complain that the superdelegates because
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-- her only vulnerability is there has to be a fundamental change where voters and superdelegates believe that sanders will be a stronger general election candidate because of new problem she develops. sanders is not the leader on june 8, there is no way. on our set of assumptions, he could claim 500 and still not beat her. you've got to have the argument that the only way to do it is be ahead in pledged delegates. he's got some blowouts. he may have those but it is a tall mountain to climb no matter what his fans say. a good night tonight, a good week, he can tighten this up and then he is within hailing distance.
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but it is hard to overcome where she is. segmentor making this possible. a political conversation comes up that requires relators. after these words from our sponsors. ♪
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>> there are staff changes being
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made on the campaign. what is your take on those? >> it is a natural transition. that transition is going to be great. >> are the new people being brought in being brought in to take over? >> it is a very tactical change and i think it will be very important moving forward. >> who is running the campaign right now? >> my father. >> donald trump junior talking some beeping horns, or maybe the theme from psycho. a shakeup and tension in trump land. wilson.no and howard our boss and former communications director. man, thank you. we haven't had you on in a
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while. what is your view? terribleime, i had a predictions. will get roundly abused on twitter and the internet but i have to say he is masterful. we got into this, the politics of the new cycle. now i think it is politics of the tweet. he can say something outrageous one day and the next a look you in the eye and say, i never said that. or say something more salacious and get you moved off it in an instant. >> are you impressed by donald trump as a new york politician? howard: very much so. both candidates will win in part because they are real new yorkers. he could they have real familiarity with the news cycle. they both look like they are in
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their element. >> heavy scene campaigns in disarray up close? so every campaign, at some stage, does go through some additions. the question is if they are additions or additions by subtraction. i think it remains to be seen. maybe they can create a better environment for a chance of success. >> howard to appraise ted cruz's chances? kim: i would say 50-50. mastery of the process hasn't been defined yet.
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i underestimated his ability to -- howard: i just don't think he was ever really going to win new york. she was very much on the home turf. not sure i would have had him as aggressively contest the contest as they did. i might have suggested that he was not likely to win because this is literally her home state. the trip to rome will be seen as something as a loss.
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and i think at some point they will have to begin reassuring nervous democrats to the extent they care about the democratic not going to is continue to bash hillary clinton on a near daily basis. at some point you have to worry about unifying the party and you have to take your foot off the gas a little bit. you can compete to the end and raise all kinds of money but if andcall her a criminal violating campaign finance laws, that is not helpful. you'll begin to see a lot of people say you can contest this but cool it with the ethics and the personal attacks. >> what about the rules of selecting delegates? kim: i think he's done a great job. i'm obtaining a sleek, he's doing what everyone else is doing. if you don't think they are doing the same type of operation -- what does he get out of messaging that way? kim: he gets to be in charge of
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what happens no matter what happens. he gets 1237, he can unify the party. he doesn't and they switch something, or a second ballot scuffle, he gets to say it was rigged, crazy, and he can win by his try to people pressuring -- >> the best case scenario is united and strong. will the party be united if that happens? kim: understand this is all for geeks like us. august, when the actual campaign starts, it is all a memory. nobody will have even remembered all of this, in my opinion.
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>> opening the notebooks on the democratic race. you can also listen to us on the .adio or radi we will be right back. ♪
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>> joining us now are the bloomberg colleagues that have been covering the democratic presidential race. great to see you. i want you to debate this topic amongst yourselves. does hillary clinton seem like she is in a good mood this week? >> yes.
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she's eating ice cream and walking around with her hot sauce but try not to be in too good a mood. it's almost over, right? be veryitely seems to much like ready to be done with this in a way but at the same time, got there and continue to look like she is working hard. to be enjoyingem every moment of it as much a she possibly can figure out. she was in flushing yesterday. and she definitely thought it was weird. she was working with chuck schumer and i think she has found a way to make campaigning a little bit more palatable to her self. at this point, i think she is aware of all of the challenges ahead going into the general.
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and she has to keep doing this dance at the primary. i think it is probably wearing on her a bit. i think they are hoping that the ,esults tonight and next week it shifts a little bit more toward the general. >> are they actually angry or playing this up? are angry.they they are doing the party building and sanders is doing none of it. but continually giving them a run for her money. and complain about the fact that she has joint actions with the party. they are going to howl about it. if they don't, there is credence to what he's doing. obviously, sanders would want to win. it gives them the argument to keep going on.
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>> all of the public polling as had her up by 10 points. the campaign senses this will probably be tighter than that. it's like a two-point race. >> on tv earlier today saying a win is a win. , thatth the expectations barack obama did not campaign against her. >> sanders is in another state. >> what is up with the big dogs? them last night. they had this big irish-american even. -- event. they take so much credit for what he did in the 90's. he has been a bit of a mixed bag
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. causingrs have ended up problems not just for him but for the whole campaign. forcing secretary clinton to go back and talk about the crime bill again when she would rather talk about almost anything else. so that has been where it has been lately. margaret, thank you. enjoy tonight coverage. hands up, the most famous in american politics are at it again. not these. ♪
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>> donald trump lost hands have
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been a big issue in this campaign. he seemed eager to show off the various gestures he can make with his hands. we counted 73 distinct emotions in this one speech alone. we have compiled a name to many of them for a brief performance set to the classic tune, the blue don-ube. ♪
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♪ >> the hands are famous for a reason. i like the geronimo. >> nsfw. was the second i like? >> pocket rocket. [laughter] >> thanks are putting that
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together and naming those things that have become internet staples. robotics.com for coverage of tonight. congressman tim murphy you will not want to miss. and you will not want to miss what i said a second ago. all of the coverage of the new york primary. they report late in some parts of the state. john: is there any chance that bernie sanders wins this? mark: i'm too old to predict. john: is there any chance? mark: we will see. john: i will be watching these results tonight because it is my home state. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪
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mark: let's begin with a check of your first word news. the taliban of claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on an elite government security agency in afghanistan.
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nearly 30 people were killed, 300 wounded in a car bombing and a four-hour gunbattle that followed. the united nations is urging the u.s. and russia to get the peace process back on track in syria. a seven-week truce has effectively broken down. today is primary day in new york. hillary clinton voted early in westchester county. win 68%anders needs to of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. if donald trump wins more than 50% of the vote statewide, it will put him in strong position to win all of new york 95 gop delegates. president obama is in route to saudi arabia but leaves behind a controversy that threatens relations between the kingdom and the united states. the issue is bipartisan legislation that would allow families of 9/11 victims to sue the saudis for any role the elem

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