joe: i'm joe rosenthal. alix: i'm alix steele. scarlet: stocks fluctuating after a disappointing lead on the american economy today. joe paterno the question -- joe: the question is what did you miss? scarlet: treasuries sending yields higher. alix: should we be satisfied with 160,000 jobs. does it point to a new reality in the labor market. joe: votes being counted in the u.k.'s general elections, the latest results indicate that an exit looks less likely. scarlet: we begin with our market minute. stocks do finish higher near the best levels of the day, we're talking fairly modest gains, the dow adding half of 1%. seven of 10 groups ending higher with materials the best performing sector. utilities were the lag guards

here, a movement totsycally cal grooms. joe: instant selloff after the jobs report at 8:30, we sort of trended back up throughout the day and ended in the green as you see. alix: two things that caught my eye today, the whole week, the dow jones transportation average despite climbing higher today is right around 200-day moving average. i point this out, guys, as goes the transports and the dow, not necessarily a 1-1 anymore. the break below there none theless significant in the rally unable to take it above that level today. one stock that was not awesome, endo international, this was a truly ugly, ugly stock today. this is a two-day chart of this company. it cut its full year earnings outlook. it was the worst performer in the s&p and it fell the most at one point since 2002. seven-year low. it took down some other big

guys today. joe: on the government bond market, the world of government bonds, it was interesting action, we saw rates rise across the curve today, but again it was a reversal instantly at 8:30 when we got that jobs report, yields dropped across the curve, instant spikedown and they slowly ground higher throughout the day as perhaps the market reassessed that report. as you can see, the two and 10-year level, higher on both sides. scarlet: letk at's loohe dollar, weakening to 18-month lows, speculators increasing their bets on dollar weakness as we move forward. the aussie was another big uber, signs of disinflation. against then, the aussie dollar is at a four-year low. it will not reach its goal this year. as a result, traders are increasing their bets of an august rate move. alix: there was some movement in commodities, but for me, it was really the weekly moving

commodities was large. w.t.i. not going anywhere all week. the first weekly decline in a month and the reason why, guys, it's surprising to me, there was a lot of bullish fundamental news that happened this week, none the least of which were the canadian wild fifes, b.p. declared that they cannot get their oil out of the ground and have to delay some of their shipments in exchange for payments there because of it. it didn't move the needle in oil. i thought that was a strange sentiment shift. the other has to do with iron ore. this was a huge weekly loss for the metal, its biggest in four years. we can't get a weekly chart of this, but look at that down draft in iron ore off that 15-month high, easy come, easy go when it comes to commodity speculation. scarlet: those are today's market minutes. before we get to our deep dives, breaking news, colony capitol is in talks to buy the commercial real estate manager north star asset management.

this is according to people familiar with the matter. you're looking at the afterhour trades up 13% on this report by bloomberg that colony is working with north star realty finance on the bid. these are still at a pretty early stages ongoing, colony capitol in talks to acquire this commercial real estate manager. let's take a look into our deep dive. you can find the falling charts using the function at the bottom of the screen. joe: i'm looking at the labor market going back to that jobs report we got this morning. this is a pretty cool chart, jeff, a bond manager, says this is a great indicator to perfectly time the start of the recession. it's when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate crosses over the three-year moving average. i hadn't seen this before. he talked about it yesterday at a speech in new york. look at this, the last three times we had recessions back in 2007, 2001 and the early

1990's, it perfectly timed to ine moved across the green line. if it moves again, we're nowhere close to the start of the recession now. things can change. that was a pretty striking chart and shows how trends change and we're a long way from any sort of imminent recession. alix: hard to interpret the report. joe: it made people nervous. alix: i have a chart with two good things, average hourly earnings and aggregate hours worked. that moved higher, it's right around 2.5% year on year. and also aggregate hours worked also moved higher, 2.1%. both jumped off of this low that they made earlier. ok, the headline number may not be that good. people literally worked more and made more money. that's good for consumption and g.d.p. that's the bullish thing. joe: might explain why the

markets reassessed a little bit. scarlet: they didn't take it as one-sided. y looks that was highlighted as the single best thing in the jobs report which is more quits. people are telling their employers goodbye. that is a percent of unemployment at 10.8%. you can see it's at 10.8%. that is a high for this cycle. job switching is leaving to wages, what you were pointing out earlier, alix. alix: you don't want to leave your job unless you get paid more money and feel good about the economy. scarlet: tweet us for more. alix: rick, the head of fixed income over at blackrock. we kind of laid out the good and the bad of the jobs number. what was your single biggest takeaway today? rick: there were a few. it was disappointing in terms

of the estimates had gone up and up and up. there were quirks in terms of number of weeks in the survey, et cetera. the listen, the thing that i think that is happening maybe a bit sooner than i would have anticipated, we talked about it on the show, we talked about it otherwise. we do think we have seen the best in terms of payroll growth, the chart on a three-month moving average. and we think it's going to continue to trend lower. it's not recession. some of it is because we have hired so many people, 8 million jobs over three years and 5% unemployment rate. you almost have to trend down in terms of numbers hired. that's a big one. i also think the dynamic that is getting more and more, we talked a lot about this on every show and this show about technology changing. there were 160,000 people hired. 141 out of 160 were in three sectors, health care, leisure and business and professional services. you take goods was a negative,

negative 3,000 jobs again. the economy is shifting. the biggest story, people like to focus on the number, is how the economy is shifting. you see it in china and other parts of the world, you see it in a service oriented economy that is incredibly powerful. we track momentum of jobs and growth of jobs. if you can see on the bottom left, manufacturing is continuing to be anemic. you look at things like leisure, health care, aging population demographically influenced. you look at professional business services. it's an extraordinary dynamic of how the economy globally is shifting. shannon: we talk how china is transperforming, we're missing the same therapist taking place at home. joe: everybody is shifting right now. one of the best mysteries in the economy for a while has been the lack of productivity growth. do you see any aspect of that in that shift so from

manufacturing to health care, do you think some of that mystery can be explained by how the economy is fundamentally shifting? rick: i have a completely different take on the productivity thing. there is a dynamic, we had 8 million jobs over the last three years. first of all, the data is mismeasured. there is an incredible amount of output that is not captured in the data. secondly, i think when you look at the hard data, we look at people hired, cars sold, miles, vehicle miles traveled, the economy is operating at a very strong level and we're hiring people, but we don't capture the data right. i was saying this facetiously today. if the economy moves along and the rate of hiring slows down, it's a productivity increase, that's not right. we're in a different dynamic today in terms of how the economy is and how we look at productivity and how we measure g.d.p. and output. for example, if oil prices went up significantly, people would say we're seeing better output. that must mean productivity is

higher. it's not right. when you look at quality of life and you look at what growth is supposed to measure, you look at the hard data. you look at productivity, a mathematical function thrown off by the fact we're seeing people hired and resources put to work. i'm not as concerned about the productivity dynamic. scarlet: when you take a look at say the bond markets, going to your wheelhouse, you seem more constructive on the u.s. economy. we have seen that reflected in two-year premiums, the dollar keeps falling. you're the fixed income expert, how does that make sense. explain this to me. rick: there are a number of things that take place. we believe in this appreciation of the dollar for a long time, some of it because of monetary policy dispersion and some trade flows, so the appreciation we saw over the last few years made a

tremendous amount of sense. there is definitely some pullback and quite frankly i would argue now, with the dynamic where the fed is going to be easier than was anticipated, can the dollar pull back from that natural rate of appreciation, i think that's right and you're seeing that play through. clearly you have to look at the component parts of what the dollar is weakening against, there is real reasons whien is strengthening significantly. europe runs a current account surplus. unless they do more and more to cause the currency to depreciateate, the euro naturally aappreciates. joe: the odds of a rate hike, any rate hike at all for the rest of the year is right around 50/50. looking at my terminal, we have the work function which shows 52.6% chance of a rate hike did i december. how does that fit in with how you see things? rick: the best case this year is we're going to get something zero to two hike this year.

i would migrate toward one hike. if you told me where is a logical location of that taking place, as long as the data supports it, i could see july as being you set up for it in june and talk about, if it doesn't happen, let it happen in july. if the data doesn't support it and we think the data is trending softer and continuing to trend softer, you push that back. joe: 8% of a june hike, 2% in july. people in the market see that as a possible approach the fed might take. rick: if you asked the same thing a few months ago, it would be a reversal. they say the fed can't move if there is no press conference, that's not true. you have one big event, the fed could set up for it. if this were not to happen, you did your press conference in advance. scarlet: good stuff, rick is sticking with us. next we're going to be talking about the credit markets.

we have a quick check again on the shares of north star asset management. alix: colony capitol, the private equity firm, is in talks to buy this commercial real estate manager. this is all according to people familiar with the matter. we're keeping track, up 16%. ♪

scarlet: some breaking news, berkshire hathaway, warren buffett's company reporting first quarter results. 2274 for the first quarter, $157,369 k value is

as of march 31. net income was $5.59 billion. pretty much what we anticipated because it was preannounceped and said that it would come in that amount, $5.59 billion. alix: hard to report earnings when you have to do thousands of dollars. what did you miss? pain in the credit market. we're looking at rising default rates. the number of companies defaulting on their debt is the higher since the financial crisis. rick is back with us. rick, the question, has the credit cycle turned? rick: so i think ideosin accuratic risk is growing. when you break down the default rates moving up, it's concentrated in energy, materials, as well as if you extended it out to softens, downgrades, places like brazil andest. do i think it's turned, look at the high yield market, the assets where the bonds trading were incredibly rich.

you have part of the market whether it's materials, energy, retailing more so that clearly will see more risk, see more defaults going forward. i think you globally, when growth is slow and will continue to be slow, it means second and third tier companies in the industry are going to default more and it means some industries when technology changes are going to see more defaults. that's what's playing out. since i have been in this business like 30 years now, i have never seen a greater dispersion in where you have part of the market that is extremely strong and then part of the market where people just don't want to touch today because of the risk of default is so much higher. i would argue it's more of a bifurcated, polarized market and see more defaults over the next few years. scarlet: what have you learned from the latest earning season? you looking at the contraction things it's job changes in the labor market. what does it do to the ability to repay debt or confidence in those abilities?

rick: it's a great question. it's the sixth straight quarter of declining cash flow. you got to be sensitive of that in terms of what does it mean for the credit markets. one thing i would say, you take a step back and you think about invest in companies, multinationals are putting in more debts to grow when revenues are declining. the place they started from was really good in terms of they were sitting on a lot of free cash flow was good. leverage has picked up significantly which means more risk going forward, but the place you started from was not that daunting to start with. no doubt, every time you see a slowing in the economy, companies like to put on a bit more leverage and keep it at a high point. you got to be sensitive of that if you're investing in credit. joe: i want to talk about credit markets and default and shift gears. one of the major presidential candidates, donald trump, proposed in an interview this week that were he to be president and were the u.s.

economy to go on a downturn, he would use his business acumen in dealing with debt to renegotiate the payments on us soften debt, he said i would borrow knowing that the economy crashed, you could make a deal. what's your take on that? rick: i wouldn't comment. i'm not sure of the proposal and how that would work or not work. there are a couple of things, markets will be very sensitive to. you saw this in the fiscal crises of the last few years. the u.s. reserve currency in the world, any risk of default, not just in the treasury market, when you think about any default in terms of the u.s., the impact it has on the global economy and the world is very daunting. whenever you change debt parameters, you see it play out in puerto rico, you see it play out in argentina, it takes a long time before you can come back to the markets and it's a long time and when you come back to the markets, we talk a little bit how argentina played

out, it took a long, long time and the way you come back to the market, you have to be secured, you need covenants in your debt. sanctity sanget -- is extraordinarily important. anytime you put any dent in that armor is incredibly dangerous. joe: you don't want to question it. you don't want to go there -- rick: we saw it play out. remember going back a couple of years, three years, think about when the u.s. was downgraded from triple-a to take a notch down, the impact that had was the crisis, how many assets would you love to buy double-a plus, the thought of defaulting is just a step too far. scarlet: that he is proposing would lead to a down grade or just the very question of tinkering. rick: i haven't seen exactly the proposal. i think the rating agencies, you saw this on the fiscal crisis. if you are questioning, if you are putting a higher

probability of default, the rating agencies have no choice but to down grade you and to evaluate your credit quality. you have increased the probability of default. that's significant. so i think, like i say, i think anytime in any capitol structure, you question the efficacy of the debt, you take the equity valuation down. you think about that on a broad economic construct. if you bring down, you question the value of the debt, your equity or value of the assets in the country have to go down. alix: rounding it out for you, you were looking at the u.s. is going to slow a little bit, we're ok. you are looking at a bifurcated credit market and a soften debt rating. what keeps you up right now? rick: i don't sleep a lot. i think china is an extraordinarily important thing to follow going forward. there is a dynamic, you take growth in the first quarter and think about, if you actually just took the percentage that china was the grome, not the output in the world, but a

little over 40% of the growth in the world came from one country, china has been this extraordinary engine of growth in the world. why are u.s. companies, why are revenues declining, diagnosis how much was driven by trade in the last few years and china was the driver of emerging market trade and growth. the debt is too big in china and it's getting bigger and they're using liquidity and leverage growing the economy and how durable is that is a question of markets. are we going to follow the trade data, the reserve data out of china, the inflation data in china. by the way, look at how many times the fed mentioned it in the last couple of statements. china has become a very big part of the investment suite of how you think about things and will be going forward. scarlet: china debt. rick, thanks very much, great to see you, thank you, rick, c.i.o. of blackrock fixed income. joe: meanwhile, speaking of

political news, we have a former g.o.p. presidential candidate jeb bush saying on facebook that he won't vote for donald trump or hillary clinton in november. earlier we had lindsey graham saying the same thing, a number of former trump rivals saying they won't support him in november. scarlet: mainstream republicans.

scarlet: we're taking a look at volatility in currencies. that is your blue line is now surpassing the volatility of emerging market currency is. this is part of the bizarre world we're always marveling at, guys, the government debt yielding less than zero. there is growing doubt about

central bank's ability to induce growth and inflation. at the same time people are feeling a little bit calmer about the emerging markets avoiding a widespread slowdown because of a weaker dollar. alix: very strange, i would not have thought that in a million years. i'm looking at something that is really blowing my mind right now in the high yield market. his is outflows from the biggest junk bond e.t.f. it has reached almost $3 llion in just the last few weeks, few days alone. a lot of questions why this is happening. is this a bearish sign? people are scared, they want to take them out of this and put into a safe asset or is this actually a bullish sign, are they taking money out because it's picking up in the bond market and putting it to work in other assets in a good way. we don't know the answer yet.

issuance has picked up in april. it's a really big debate in the credit market. joe: that's quite an outflow. alix: almost $3 billion. joe: i want to pick up something you were talking about earlier, alix, a couple of things i like to look at certain gauges of how people feel about chinese, rebar is one of them. i look at shares, are animal spirits particularring up in china, investing in casinos. both were surging. they both bottomed right around the same time. back in january, they were both surging. both have fallen back. we saw that blue line, so we have seen, we saw these speculative juices flowing with the china stuff. lately both have pulled back a little bit. something to watch. scarlet: watch this. alix: watch the rebar users. scarlet: the u.s. slowdown in hiring, is this normal and what

does it mean for the feds? we'll discuss next. ♪ [ soft music ]

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simply by using your voice. the billboard music awards, live sunday may 22nd, 8/5 pacific, only on abc. >> let's get to first word news. the public and party chairman supports donald trump as the nominee but that means he is breaking with house speaker paul ryan who says he is not ready to back tromp. he disagrees with ideals like banning muslims entering the u.s. all right and the house leadership will meet with donald trump thursday morning. and jeb bush will not back donald trump. said heer candidate will not vote for truck or hillary clinton this november. he made the comments on facebook moments ago.

kenneth feinberg has rejected a plan to rescue the central state pension fund that would cut benefits from union members. it's one of the biggest multi employer pension funds and pays out $1.82 billion invested each sheer. without because it will be without funds by 2026. and a meeting of 10 countries next week. areign ministers and representative from the european union will be on hand. cup series comes to new york. catamarans that can reach 40 miles our will take place. it is a few hundred yards away from the skyscrapers of manhattan.

global news 24 hours a day powered by our journalists in 150 news euros. news bureaus. alix: we are talking about fairly modest gains with the s&p through a third of 1%. this on the heels of that jobs report. 150,000 jobs added. the slowest pace of growth in eight months. scarlet: it's worth -- joe: it's worth noting it initially sold off at 830. the fact that it ended up higher suggested a reevaluation of the snap reaction. alix: especially considering you had a selloff in asia as well. chinese stocks got hit. .e got that mushy jobs number you can look at it as a constructive sign. northstar check of

asset management. late news from that company, rate, said to be in talks to acquire this commercial real estate manager according to those family were the matter. a gain of 18% in after-hours trade. alix: what did you miss? the most important question from the jobs report. a -- is the payroll number sign of a job slow down or does it -- or full employ is this what employment looks like? guest: we have an through several of these. we will have job growth minute decelerates. i think like every other deceleration this will prove to be transitory. what was more troubling than the payroll data, which when you realize private payrolls were up 171,000, that is a 30,000 below

what the average has been, if that is the slow down i don't think that is anything to panic about. what was more troubling when you look at it in isolation was the household survey. we had substantial declines in employment and the labor force. i think we should put that into the context that over the last six months we've seen both increase by 2.4 million. they had been increasing by $400,000 per mouth -- per month. job data look at this we will have to see next month. the bottom line, there is no reason to panic. time will tell but we will probably see the machinists -- mushiness will prove to be transitory. joe: why is the economy slowing?

we came into the year with optimism. the fed thought it would raise rates four times. what has changed? why is in the data living up to the promise? guest: q1 has never lived up to the promise. averaged 6/10only of 1%. why that is, we don't really know. a lot of statisticians are trying to figure out if there is a problem with the way the adjustment is occurring. we are trying to decipher we know we survived another lane. how much improvement are we going to see? so trying to put the employment data, the labor market tends to weigh growth. this could be a consequence of the slower growth. if it picks up later in the year which is in the process of happening we should see better labor market data. alix: some say you have wages

rising. that does mean we are at full employment. what do you look for to measure if we are at full employment? guest: wages will tell the story. it looks like we are seeing a stealth acceleration in wage growth. there hasn't been anything striking or compelling. if you look for wage growth over the last six months, the average year-over-year per month, up until that it only averaged 2%. we may be seeing an acceleration in wage growth but it is understated. scarlet: what about inflation. watches core inflation bring we have seen the stabilization in commodities and that could lift inflation measures. will the fed see that as transitory on the way up? guest: no matter what happens they are going to call it transitory. inflationwn we had an

over the last four or five years was because prices of goods and commodities were falling. for example, service prices have been running at 2.5%. we are a service economy doing recently well -- reasonably well. marketsseen commodity look like they have bottom. just having them stabilize will cause headline inflation numbers to accelerate later on in the year. it is addition by less subtraction. that is what the inflation story is. and will affect service core inflation as well because when oil prices were collapsing and the energy exploration sector was lapsing we saw a slow down in energy service inflation. now that those prices have stabilized, they will start to rise again. joe: what does it mean for the

fed? guest: i came into the year thinking 2, not 4. they came around to my way of thinking in march. that is not a popular opinion. in theoo early to throw towel on a june rate hike. i think the door is still open for june. if we had more -- guest: the labor data is the least important. the fed said labor market is doing ok. it is the inflation and brexit we are worried about. if we see a return to that we don't need to see muscular data. more importantly the fed wants to see what is the consumer doing? how is the market coming around? the numbers will be encouraging on that front. interesting. other banks were downright -- downgrading their rate hike

forecast. you are sticking with it. no sign of a brexit revolt as voters around the u.k. vote for more of the same. we break down the political outlook with mike smithson. ♪

time for the bloomberg business flash to look at the business stories in the news now. the fcc has approved charters takeover of time warner cable. regulators will bow on the merger on may 12. the takeover would make charter the second-biggest u.s. cable operator. alix: commercial real estate manager at star asset management

group according to people, here with the matter. the private equity firm founded by tom barrick is working with northstar realty finance on the bed. 2013. spun off in it had a value of $2.3 billion at the close of last year days -- yesterday's trading. scarlet: and the island planning board is planning on the fifth straight year of decline and a 1.2% contraction in the current fiscal year. meanwhile, the treasury --retary visits next weekend week to highlight the impact of the debt crisis. that is the bloomberg business flash. joe: results from the uk's wasonal -- says there little move for the change that britain wants to leave the european union. is the largest test outside of

the general election and it seem little could change. joining me now over the phone is mike smithson. thank you for joining us. what is the number one takeaway for you for these elections? guest: the big takeaway is the new mayor of london is a muslim andidate who is going to make big statement about london. he will be the one who is the public figure. succeeded after one of the dirtiest campaigns. they were trying to make out that he was somehow associated with extremism and he put up with a very tough fight. he has one with a big majority. on youree you ro website that in addition to his winning one of the big surprises

was the turnout in london surged from 37% to 47%. why is that significant? guest: it is hugely significant. it gives us greater credibility. people thought in this election it was going to be a low turnout. because the candidates were new candidates, they weren't really known. they didn't have the same polling power as the former mayor of london. itself, thecampaign fact that the conservatives were going so hard, and the media was going so hard against him, because of his muslim backgrounds, that brought people out to vote in a way people thought was not going to happen. outside of the london though, what is the takeaway? does the vote tell us anything?

the other big news came from scotland which have the scottish general election for the scottish parliament. that's all the snp lose their majority. they are still there. about three seats short. but they don't have that. that could be interesting for the future. it's all the british labour party absolutely destroyed, even more than we have seen in the past. they lost seat after seat. and conservatives did better than they ever have in scotland. that was the big thing. as to what the vote tells us about the referendum, that's the dominant political fact here. the partyve seen is opposed to the u.k. being in ukip, hasn't done well.

it has made few games in local seats, local area cancels, -- area councils. it has dropped by 1%. it is before a big election. you would expect to see the greater awareness to be reflected in our vote share. it came out about 12%. joe: i want to talk about labor specifically. first big vote since jeremy corbyn took power. you mentioned labor scored the big victory. a setback for the third-largest party in scotland. was this about a verdict at all on the current state of labor? guest: for the spin doctors it was a great bow of confidence for jeremy corbyn.

a lot of the projections before the election were that labor would lose about 150 local seats . in fact they have only lost 25, 30. in that sense they have beaten expectations. the conservatives were going to guess to win hundred 50 seats and they have actually lost seats. that is that news for them. it is the expectation management which is key. the critical thing in relation there had been lots of rumors, lots of suggestions that if he had done badly in these elections there may have been a move against them within the party. having labor winning london, and not suffering this level of defeat, he is safe for now. joe: the betting markets for a well, you cover political betting, it suggested the u.k.

will vote to stay in the eu. is that looking solid? guest: absolutely solid. the current betting makes it a 69% chance. he polling is it really moving. we may see further action. joe: thank you very much. mike smithson at political betting.com. the three charts you missed in today's u.s. jobs report. we will be right back. ♪

today'sree charts in jobs report that tell the story for the u.s. economy. matt has been coming through the

release and joins us now. you are looking at something no one has noticed. to figuretrying what's going on for manufacturing and the global economy. over the last year we have seen a lot of weakness in manufacturing and employment. an interesting thing, manufacturing overtime hours jumped. people are having their workers work longer hours. it's interesting because it jumped in durable goods but not nondurable goods manufacturing. machinery, the stuff that is more sensitive to conditions. joe: after lots of manufacturing layoffs we saw an uptick in demand and they had to work longer? it seems conceivable? >> that might be the case. we have to watch it. that is what the pmi surveys are suggesting.

maybe they did lay off too many people and were caught off guard. alix: is there a correlation between overtime and new hiring? discern.ard to you don't see patterns like this that are consistent across business cycles. i don't think we know they storm past experience how it will play out. it seems like a possibility. if we have the worst of the dollar strength past us, maybe we will see an uptick. scarlet: it seems like a quaint idea. waitressing, that kind of thing. talk to us about aggregate weekly payrolls. in theas one bright spot jobless report. average hourly earnings. headlines, the slowdown in hiring in april. people are saying how the fed is not going to raise rates for a

while. you need to look at the full picture, which is that combination of hiring and wage growth. linesn see the white combined that. you can see an uptick in april. maybe some slowdown we are seeing in the headline employment growth may be of closer to full employment and we see wages rise and pick up the slack on that margin. that is a good sign. the consumer has some firepower to spend going forward if they choose to do so. joe: ultimately, if you distill it in a simple -- single number it would be that the total amount you work. and how much they get paid. guest: that is the single number. that is the number that is important to the fed. joe: the next thing you have noticed is a sign that is diminishing slack.

what is this? slack, a signhing that maybe there is quite a bit of slack. ofs chart shows the number unemployed workers every month theing jobs, less than number dropping out. this is still below zero. more people are dropping out and are finding jobs. it is lower than it was precrisis. we may have a ways to go. the fact that it hasn't slowed down much, it suggests maybe we are not quite running out of labor market slack. there could be more. we don't know where we are going to end up. joe: that is strongly positive prior to this downturn. >> exactly. perhaps all of the 45, 55-year-old workers got laid off and dropped out, maybe they don't come back.

the fact that we have not seen aat suggests we could absorb lot of workers back into the labor force. alix: good stuff. thank you very much. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for the trading week. ♪

scarlet: don't miss this next thursday. bank of england will make its key decision. they will probably hold at half of 1%. alix: they have to acknowledge the risks going forward. scarlet: they will acknowledge and then move on. economict miss a key indicator, retail sales out on friday. it is a crucial gauge of the health of the consumer. alix: especially when we had average hourly earnings go up. good car sales number this week. that should provide some support. don't miss this. next week, bloomberg will be in las vegas and speak with heavyweights by david rubenstein. we really want to know what they think about the economy. does that affect their decision?

we can find out more about that. thank you for watching. scarlet: see you back here next week. joe: have a great evening

john: with all due respect to donald trump, you have been digging yourself out of so many situation it is time you wore the proper gear. [cheers] john: we have some not so minor news for sports fans. the republican party is still in recovery mode after