>> u.s. stocks closing near highs as the s&p had yesterday in over two months. >> the question is, "what you miss"? energized by healthy employment. the debate over helicopter money. why is it not the first option on the central bank list? oliver: euro area finance ministers meet in brussels to deal with greek relief. can they find a compromise? we begin with market minutes. the dow is up, stocks at their best levels of the session, joining the rally that we saw overseas. if you break it down into 24 industry groups, every single one of them climbed with the worst performer being energy gaining one half of 1%. alix: it felt like a really risk

on day. as oliver pointed out before we went to air, they really started overnight. it was just risk on all day. it was hard to find a specific catalyst. helps whendefinitely you open up the day with european indexes across the at standardg deviations two times as high as they normally close. it definitely helped quite a bit. >> financials leading the gains, but you are looking at home builders? >> a few things are interesting. homebuilders are obviously on the back of that new home sales report. this group has had a bit of a rally this year but his overall struggling to keep up with the rest of the index. clearly with people buying homes , tomorrow we will get more indications on mortgages and the sector jumping up. had a pretty interesting move in the retailers. it was noteworthy. amazon, dollar store. a few of these retail stocks

trading at a high volume. asrlet: as the -- alix: money came into stocks, it really went out of bonds. what really caught my eye today was some bond sales of this veritas. basically the carlyle group purchased them at the end of last year and it was a big leo and the banks could not get their loans off the books. today we learned that lenders sold about $450 million of those unsecured bonds in about 86.5 cents on the dollar. just a few weeks ago it was $.83 on the dollar. to me this really signifies the fact that the credit market is opening up if you are able to offload this risky, junk debt. i heard this echoed last week at the goldman sachs leverage financial conference. offloading in a markdown, but opening up. earlier, a risk

on kind of day. the turkish lira, you see a big leg down, that was about 4 a.m.. a dollar weakening after the lira was reappointed the deputy prime minister. market friendly, he's got pretty much credited with economic expansion. pro-fiscal discipline. seen as a buffer to the push for radical interest rate cuts. their interest rate by 30 basis points, pretty much what economists were looking for. let's get our daily check on the british pound, strengthening to three-month highs versus the euro. this is euro pound, losing ground after polls show that older voters who were in favor of a briggs it are now switching sides. you had the bank of england governor mark carney saying that the upcoming vote is creating substantial uncertainty. the tale of two commodities today. one is wti and brent.

this is their spread. at one point it was in positive territory, meaning it was more expensive than brent. a lot of this weakness and thength is pairing vindication of these guys. the other one is gold. a five-day slide. the worst that we have seen since november. falling below the 50 day moving average, close to that 100 day. if you are hiking, why own gold at the end of the day? >> definitely. let's take a deep dive into the bloomberg. you can find all of the following charts with the function at the bottom of the screen. >> how much are we using credit cards? actually less. i have a great chart for you that looks at credit card balances as a percentage of credit. like how much you are spending on your credit card. the first quarter fell to 23.2%, the lowest level since 2003. thank you to matt butler for

pointing this out to me. total available credit was 2.5 trillion dollars, the highest in eight years. deleveraging is a good thing. deleveraging and spending. or are credit limits are going up and we are not taking advantage of it. perhaps we are paying down the debt and are not spending. i thought it was a cool chart. oliver: if you are saving money from low oil prices, why is that not going back into the economy? saving: maybe you are money to buy a new home. new numbers were pretty incredible. a great peas of economic data, new home sales jumped 17% in april and economists were looking for a gain of 2.4%. take a look at the chart here. highest since 2008. tolls reported earnings that topped estimates with a 20% increase in average selling price. we know that with new home sales it means more for the economy. creating gdp in a way that existing home sales don't.

but just to put some perspective on this, we will change the starting date to 2005 and you can see that we are still a long way off from the housing boom back in 2005 to 2006. july of 2005 we had an annual rightf 1.3 9 million and now we have an annual rate of 619,000. good perspective. ofver: a little bit volatility at the end, but i will be talking about it specifically in one part of the market. minimum volume etf has surpassed volatility in the s&p 500. i actually brought this up last week. there is a big what is known as the minimum fault etf. my colleague had a great story today kind of looking at what happened in this part of the market. white wine is the ratio of that low purported volatility of stocks through the s&p 500. what you are basically seeing is that when the number jumps over one, the volatility actually in

the lowball is now surpassing that of the overall stock market, which is odd. highlighting to other things here, basically the move in some of these value type names that have gone pretty expensive, the consumer staples and the utilities here, these are typically kind of value plays that as we know have gotten pretty pricey. trading high on the left side of 8% screen, this is an etf relative to the s&p with 4% utilities and double staples as well, that could get more volatile and if you are there for lower volatility, it could be disappointing. >> that's a great chart. we have some breaking news from hewlett-packard, reporting results for the second quarter, $.42 per share matching the analyst estimate. $2.7 billion in revenue is higher than what analysts were

looking for, anticipating $12.3 billion. looking at the results the headline grabbing everyone's attention is the ssc and the enterprise unit of hp, merging. basically a joint venture, in a way, as they will each own 50% of the new firm. this is helping the stock shoot in hbe for after-hours trading. there will be a cash dividend as well of $1.5 billion on this merger announcement. again, the stock is still up seven .5% right now in extended trading. we will monitor this one is. more details. alix: joining us now is the head of global economics. earlier this month he wrote a report saying that the fed would definitely overshoot that target. since then the odds of a rate hike have moved higher. do you still stand by that forecast? >> let's keep this in perspective. the fight going on between the verynd the markets is over

tiny differences. the market wants the fed to wait until much later in the year. the fed saying we want an option to move in june if we would like to. i still think we are looking at a central bank that is incredibly cautious about what they are doing. every time we have a minor disruption to the markets and the economy, the fed always backs off. this is a fed that is much more focused on getting growth. very little focus on fighting inflation. i think that they will and should risk overshooting the 2% target. full recovery in the economy before the next recession comes. >> what is overshoot mean? >> 2.5%. the idea would be to get a little bit above their target so that when a recession hits, inflation doesn't tumble right back to where it is right now. that's the idea of the chart here. this is the normal inflation cycle overtime. you can see the two shaded areas of recession. it tends to be low early in the

cycle and if you will average 2% over the business cycle, you have to be high late in the cycle. we think that the fed will eventually allow inflation to get above 2%. scarlet: we love it when the guests coming to explain their own charts. overshooting mean more tightening later on, creating instability for the economy? >> i think that this is in some ways a deliberate fed olicy, putting the inflation in the system being a healthy thing after years of low inflation. with so many other central banks able to trade inflation, i don't think that they then have to slam the brakes later on. they can move to a more normal tightening path later. start off slow, let the economy build more, get the unemployment rate down and later moved to a more tightening cycle. i don't see them slamming the brakes anytime though. oliver: this sounds like a psychological game. if this is their intent, why not

come out and make it clear to the market? >> the problem is the environment we are in right now. whatever they do is under a microscope. legislation in congress is designed to reduce fed independence. this is not a time to come out and make old statements. i think that this is more of a quiet, more technical policy change where they tend to overshoot the target. for good reasons. not because they want high inflation, but because we know that inflation is cyclical and if you are going to have it early and a recovery you need to make up for later if you are averaging 2%. alix: rmb already seeing signs that inflation is quite good? pce,urse, cpi and core they are all moving in that direction. they really picked up steam and a lot of them are over 2%. haven't a kind of already done it? >> remember, the fed's target is

for the deflator. it's the red bottom line. that's the one that they officially target. the others are not official targets of the fed. but you are right, the markets are moving in the right direction and the fed should be happy that after so many years of low inflation we are finally moving in the right direction, but i don't think they want to stamp this out. they want to let it run for a while here. speaking of overshooting, looking at your projections tomorrow in this week, in particular durable goods show 2.5% growth assuming the number on the bloomberg is still accurate. why the higher? >> it's very affected by transport orders, which are lumpy and jump up and down. but many economists we tend to look at the capital goods orders excluding those components. there we see a modest 2/10 of a percent growth. we don't think the capital

spending and durable investment will be a booming sector. we actually think it's a slow growth sector. alix: ethan, it's an great to see you. scarlet: coming up, with great power comes great responsibility. we explore the a the a of helicopter money and whether central banks can directly inject money into the economy. and it update on a story we were telling you about earlier. hewlett-packard enterprises climbing 8%. beating analysts estimates, matching analysts estimates i should say, but the big news is that computer sciences corp. has managed a merger. each side will own about 15% of the shares in the new company, helping to boost hpe and extended trading. ♪

mark: let's get to first word news. john kasich is asking his delegates to stick with him to the june convention. he reports that the former presidential candidate made the request in letters to 161 delegates. an aide tells the newspaper that he helps the use the delegates as leverage to make donald trump a more unifying and positive force. bill cosby has been ordered to trial in pennsylvania for a felony sexual assault case from 2004. 70 eight-year-old actor faces of the 10 years in prison if convicted. move from the prime minister has decided to keep the last man standing of a market friendly team credited with turkey's economic boom years.

memo simpson will remain the deputy premier. global news, 24 hours per day. 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton. back to you. the central banks are running out of tools. the prescription is helicopter money. printing it and giving it to people is a divisive topic. the former fed vice chair and princeton economist alan blinder called it an academic theater but not a reality. alan binder: it would be effective, but it is a ridiculous concept. it's grossly illegal. my next guest says that these authorities are already working together in areas like

japan and the eurozone. the cow head of global growth research joins us now from london. great to have you here. so, is helicopter money in essence kind of already happening? >> that would be my reflection. let's think about what it means. transfert heard, engineer thanks the central bank printing money. when i look at the cute ethos, like the european central bank and the doj, ineffective they are buying government liabilities, allowing treasuries to expand their so-called fiscal space. in english, spend more out of interest. that is creating essentially room to stimulate the economy.

>> question here, looking at the company's -- countries that are most capable in the next step, an interesting chart looking at these countries with outstanding debt that is owned directly by the central banks, japan is really leading the way with almost 60% of outstanding government that directly owned by the central bank. then you have the u.k. and the u.s. further down the road. is this -- which countries here histhe most apps to take next step? is it a function of how much debt that they own? >> what i just said, related to the flow, central banks are allowing treasuries to spend money, lowering their interest bill, not creating crowding out effect as they go about issuing more government bonds. now, central banks also purchase these bonds. what your graphs show is that by

the end of next year, for example, the bank of japan will have owned 50% of the government that stock. what does this mean? debtans that the stock of will continue to be rolled by the doj, they say, until interest rate some normalized. the principle is in place in the u.k., it is in place in the ecb. for the portion of the fed that goes from 25% up to 50%, treasuries don't pay interest because the interest payments that they make on that share our paid back by the central bank to the treasury. the principal, when it comes than a -- when it comes to is rolled until rates are normalized. looking at any forward curve, that is a long way on. scarlet: that chart made it look like 9.5 years for those that the doj actually hold.

you actually go one step further and say that they could start lying different things and expanding their balance sheet in a different way that would in essence have a stimulative effect, even if it is not quote" helicopter money. >> my hypothesis is that what we are observing is a mild form of helicopter money or a quasi-permanent increase in the money supply that overtime should help stimulate these innomies more than shifts the exchange rate. now, there is another dimension that we are exploring in japan and the euro area, credit easing. that is central banks trying to domestic the components of financial conditions. i.e., credit spreads, essentially. their function, we think, will be catalytic to a growth, for instance, in lending, which

obviously would require animal spirit to kick in. but i think that overtime this should work. so, when you ask which countries are at the forefront of this policy experiment? in the never put japan lead, followed by the euro area. because in that area we know that their political economy is an impediment to making this to explicit. scarlet: all right, stay with us. we will be back with more. this is bloomberg markets "what'd you miss?." ♪

scarlet: this is "what'd you miss?." we are back in two with francesco gars a rally from god -- from goldman sachs. one thing that is curious about all of this stimulus and the extraordinary policy we have seen from central banks is that we have seen balance sheet get much better -- bigger. it for not seeing concurrent increase in inflation. the federal reserve is 400% from where it started at. second there, the blue line, the

ecb is the blue line. inflation is the target. not: why has this stimulus had an effect on prices all over the world, really? francesco: look, in simple terms you can boil it down to output gaps. the, i think, fits well overall euro area situation vis-a-vis the one in the u.s.. a small out but cap or positive one is really inflation .ressures materializing particularly in the sheltered categories, like services. biggern you have a output gap with inflation nowhere to be seen yet. it's hard to square with places like germany or japan for that reason. that's where i think central bankers have some doubts when they go about rates like the fed. , fullyn't, i think

understand the causes of this low inflation. arenow that part of them related to commodity prices. for instance, in the united states just energy, subtracting the present 60 points to 70 points from headline inflation, but the core numbers are still just approaching 2%, despite the economy doing relatively well. a long answer to say -- i think inmodities play a big part the output gaps, but it's not only that and some aspects are not completely understood. ,lix: francesco garzarelli really great to get your perspective. coming up, a greek official says that euro area prior -- euro area finance ministers plan to give a green light to greece. next up we discussed a roadmap for relief in that country. ♪ okay, ready?

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♪ get america's fastest internet. only from xfinity. bernie is mark: looking ahead to the summers democratic national convention in philadelphia. he told the associated press -- i think if they make the right choice and open the doors to working-class people in young people and create the kind of diamond -- dynamism the democratic party needs, it's going to be messy. he also said -- democracy is not always nice and quiet and gentle, but that is where the democratic already should go. 15 federal appeals judges are weighing arguments on whether a strict voter id law in texas discriminates against low income, black, and hispanic

voters. the three-judge panel in new orleans ruled last year that it does. a majority of the 15 member case voted to hear the again. arguments to price and it's not clear when the judges will. islamabad the us -- pakistani interior minister said that dna tests will be performed on the body of a man killed in the u.s. determine.e to they are not able to confirm his death, but washington, kabul, and senior taliban commanders have already done so. in an effort to help clear the air in the polluted capital, beijing will institute the toughest fuel quality standards beginning in 2017. the standards for gas and diesel fuel could help to cut omissions in the city by 15% to 20%. news, 24 hours per day, powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus

around the world. back to you. alix: thanks so much. scarlet: let's get a recap on market action. risk on, it was pretty much disagreeing from the start, with european markets at 2% apiece, helping to lift of the major benchmark indexes in the u.s.. oliver: then you saw a pickup with company specific news. it was a pretty good day from apple again. nice to see that stock back in the mix. new home sales, keller. really amazing new home sales. the concern is if there will be payback on the road. a quick -- scarlet: a quick check here on hewlett-packard enterprise. both soaring in after-hours trading after computer sciences said that they would be merging with the tech services division of hbe, creating and of -- business with $26 billion in annual revenue, getting a lift

of 20% in extended trading. alix: "what'd you miss?" finance ministers meeting in brussels to try to track $11.5 million in missing funds. but the real question is debt relief. greece has $153 billion in loans and the projection on the debt is that it will reach 124 percent of gdp by 2020. it is supposed to be 120%. here to discuss a possible way forward for greece is the former ambassador to that country. currently in edinburg distinguished visiting fellow at stanford university. ambassador, what do you think about this battle between the imf and the eu over debt relief? professor: it's a battle between the imf and the german government. this meeting is in its eighth or ninth hour in brussels. the expectations are that the

europeans will find a way to forward and extend the relief payment to greece so that we can avoid the kind of crisis we saw last summer, where greece was balanced on the edge of debt -- edge of bankruptcy. a desperate situation, financially and economically. they recently acted on new austerity measures on top of the measures of the last several years. momentum destroys the deal, but the difficult issue will be debt relief. the prime -- the finance minister said this morning that germany could not support it before 2018. the imf has been talking up the prospect more and more. who had the upper hand in this battle? the imf is inink a strong position. first of all, they are an objective body arguing for months now that the level of greek debt after 2050 is unsustainable. secondly, ministers made it clear at the start of the

meeting that they could never see moving forward without the imf. one would hope that some kind of compromise could be reached. their point on debt relief, excuse me, would be factored into this agreement and built into it. it may be a question of the timing of this. we will have to see what the final agreement is. as a neutral observer, as an american who used to work as an ambassador to greece, it's hard to see greece climbing out of its current depression. and actually moving forward to produce economic growth without some measure of debt relief. otherwise this is a load of relief not sustainable for that country. oliver: i feel like deja vu here, how many times can we go through this? looking at the markets, the markets always rally around this time. like they know that greece is going to get out of it. think the europeans

made a strategic decision last summer is that they did not want greece to leave the eurozone. keeping them in last summer, but if that's the case the drama result -- revolve -- resolves the split. it's a left-wing government. a lot of european finance officials wonder if this government can implement or would be willing to implement these reforms. there has been great controversy in greece over the past austerity package that was just past the last several days. there are doubts about the leadership at the forefront of this. >> to the point, this idea that markets believe something will get resolved. looking at greek bonds, the two year yield is moving up, but the 10 years moving down. over the long-term, you don't really see that anxiety reflected. we spoke with diego pharrell earlier today about how the market is reacting. here's what he said.

not -- now with the cold curve on compression, we would expect the curve to rally in general. we would sort of call it a bullish stiffener, the short and coming much more and along and coming lower. it should be half of the distance to portugal that it is now. scarlet: do you agree that there is too much risk priced in? >> the first thing is whether it was built into the package. that's the first concern. secondly, doubts and concerns about the present government. they have a slim majority in the greek armament. one wonders whether they will be in power for a number of years from now, if there will be another election that will

produce a more conservative or center-right government. uncertainty about their ability to sustain these austerity measures, new taxes on coffee and liquor over the weekend, elton provisions that if they don't meet their budgetary targets there will be automatic spending reductions. , the greeks have had this for three to four years. that is where the debate in europe is now centered. how much of this can spur structural economic change? does it further kick the can down the road? scarlet: good question. 0 without that relief -- nicholas: without that relief, i'm not an economist. people know the terrain say that without some measure of debt relief, you cannot expect substantial improvements in greek economic performance. certainly not sustained economic growth with debt levels going

out like at the beginning of this program to such high numbers 520:20 or even 20:50. -- by 2020 or even 2050. you have an imf that has broken away from that european consensus and is challenging them to think more creatively about how to handle things in the future. what is the number one lesson you have learned watching this greek bailout play out in a way that should not be done when it comes to negotiating difficult situations? nicholas: the disadvantage that they have had as they have not had political stability or continuity in government. in fact, they had abrupt change that led to this left-wing

government coming in. it's been a real problem for the greeks in the markets and in the european union. they need sustained leadership the can convince the rest of the world that they will abide by the commitments they have made and there is still a doubt about that. ambassador, thank you very much. coming up on "what'd you miss?" we hear from the ecb vice president. we have that interview, including his thoughts on how banks might absorb a brexit shot. next. ♪

scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. computer sciences says that it's merging with the tech services division of hewlett-packard enterprises. exchange has stock an expected shareholder value of a $.5 billion. it's expected to create 1.5 billion dollars in its first year, with each company owning roughly half of the entity. shares of both companies are soaring in late trading. employees were fired at the request of u.s. authorities, among two the people dismissed in 2014 as part of their settlement with the u.s. over valley -- violations of american law. they won their jobs back after filing wrongful dismissal cases. are making athey strategic investment in uber and will offer auto leases for the

drivers. by leasing the cars they will expand their program including enterprise holdings. that is the bloomberg is this rush. europeanoday the central bank issued a warning to markets over issues of slowing growth in emerging economies. matt miller caught up with the european -- of the eu vice president. >> this year, doing a certain number we are still subject to .hese facts commodity prices and oil. expected, and we have said so, we will have several months of very low and sometimes negative headline inflation. that will change. it will start to change in the last quarter of this year. i am very confident that next

year we will be about -- that one will materialize and it will certainly continue to increase for 2018. so, our policies have been effective because, according to several models and waves of calculating, we have estimated that without the policy, last year inflation would have been quite negative for the whole year. factsrael produced its and we expect the policy to have. matt: you do expect higher inflation than 1.6%? >> personally, yes. matt: let me ask about another risk. the brexit. we are getting closer to the vote. it's an exciting political topic that could have very serious financial ramifications on the european union. the first one, i wonder as a

regulator, are the european banks prepared in case of that vote? vitor: we think so. banks are aware, many have hedged as well as they can against the risk. judging by the amounts on exposure that we identified there, yes, banks will be an hypothesisuch that, nevertheless, if it happens of course we will have a negative impact. matt: how negative do you expect that to be? vitor: it depends on many economic factors in the markets. certainly one can expect some turbulence during that time.

matt: more than we have already seen? has subsided and debated, as you know. it's very difficult to predict the degree of the effects that will be produced by such an event that i certainly hope will matt: thealize. message that you put forth, do you try to war in the bank of england? matt: without vitor: -- vitor: without support -- vitor: without supporting any answers to that, it's hard to read. we have of course also made them assessnd have tried to

what could be the overall impact. is there a contagion concern? there seems to be a rising tide of anti-eu sentiment, even here on the continent. vitor: there are risks for several types of reactions. that is one that will impact some segments of the population. there can be another type of reaction to the other segments in the population. we have to defend ourselves by deepening integration and offfirming the willingness keeping the european union together. that was mice -- matt miller with the vice president of the european union. we will be getting an in-service look from a bloomberg equity analyst. very cool, you don't want to miss it. we will be right back.

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"liver: "what'd you miss? brazil and its stock index eating its counterparts even as they navigate political showdown. but are these games sustainable? your to bring insight is kevin kelly here at bloomberg lp. kevin, you got a pretty cool role. you work on data and news a lot. show us and tell us what sort of rules you are using to assess the situation in brazil?

>> since it bottomed on the 26th, it's up to 50%. that's important to keep in mind when looking at this type of analysis. we wanted to take a deep dive into the crp function. if we take a dive into the terminal, essentially what this function is doing is calculated a country risk premium for the countries that you can see listed. how it is doing this is it is preparing the expected return with the 10 year yield on government bonds and coming up with this risk premium. we are all familiar with how yields are calculated, but what is really interesting about this function itself is the expected market return. there are two copy outs. one, it's not based on historical performance. it's actually based on future analyst and -- analyst estimates with a bottom approach. taking what the investment is going to be at year-end. it's using a bottom up approach

in terms of calculating expected returns for each equity within the index and rolling it up into an aggregated value. of course, within that function you can come up with charts and we have illustrated one of them for brazil. talk us through what we are seeing here. kevin: absolutely. brazil is the unique place right now. if you sort by the risk premium you will see that they have the lowest. it was essentially negative for a while. more interesting point. more of an upward trend year to date. it has sat at negative. what is interesting about that is if you think about it from an equity investor standpoint, you have to question your incentive to hold these equities versus potentially selling out and getting a higher risk free rate of return with government hans. oliver: you have to decide basically as an investor whether you are more comfortable with equity safety or the government possibility to pay.

exactly. it's twofold. premiums have an upper trending throughout this year. part of that is because the yields of actually dropped on these government bonds. another and kind of more important part is that investors are actually becoming more bullish on these brazilian equities and you can see that in another function here. function the watc -- have.which i actually what is this estimates me? beautiful. that's a great snapshot of analyst sentiment. eps and revenue over one month and three months. i really want you to focus in on the last one month or so, when there has been positive uptick in terms of analyst estimates for brazilian equities. oliver: it's been lower yield

with analysts upping expectation for those stocks. kevin: that's exactly right as you see that unrest starting to settle on these equities where you will continue to see that return uptick even more. scarlet: the best part of this is that this is all live. who isr: -- oliver: going to be using this? kevin:looking at this? if you are holding brazilian equities, it's not the end-all be-all, but it's a good gauge. you can see the premium tightening or even going negative. you have to question your incentive to hold the equities as opposed to going into essentially a safer asset giving you a higher yield. great stuff, kevin. thank you.

that was like a crash course. coming up, what do you need to know? next. ♪

scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?" morning, therow nba mortgage application will be especially interesting. scarlet: don't miss the bank of canada decision tomorrow at 10 a.m.. the canadian dollar has been falling, but don't miss this, robert kaplan will be

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