tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg June 2, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. here is what we're watching at this hour. one hour to go in the training day. stocks rebound to fluctuate near a six-week high. investors are awaiting the job data for clues on the timing of the federal reserve's next policy move. company.res, a comical stocks have dropped after research says that is waiting to happen. the world -- we will have an exclusive interview with ceo bruce. we will talk bank regulations, the stress tests, and the economy. close one hour from the of trading. let's head to where bloomberg's julie hyman has the latest.
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are we in the slightly positive territory? julie: we are but a little earlier than you -- than before. it is a little relevant. -- relative. the nasdaq has doubled its gains . what is notable is the s&p 500 is now above 2100. this level has been seen as resistant by some technical traders. we will see especially given the pivotal report on jobs, whether the s&p can sustain a gain above the level. we will be watching it here look at the mixed picture we have. energy shares continue to pull back with utilities and tech. care sharesn health going into this week's meeting. american society of clinical oncology, a lot of news tends to be made on that meeting. consumer discretionary caught my eye because a lot of the stocks are coming back from recent losses. news.does have some
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the company came out with its earnings yesterday. is raisingn murphy its price at $69 following the company's earnings report. comparable sales were unchanged but analysts have been predicting a drop of 3.5%. it looks like an abstract is lifting stocks like coals, which we know have been battered recently by core results. in the retail picture and on the bottom of the s&p 500, jewelers. as we have been talking about, after a report of jim grant's newsletter, a well-known investor and analyst, he came out and summarized the case, talking about the exposure to , financing purchases for many of its customers and also highlighting some allegations that the company swapped out gemstones of customers when they come into
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service for man-made gems and lower quality gems. gotten a comment from the company but you can see the traders are voting with buttons today. >> we are done with the ecb meeting and the opec meeting. how is the euro and oil doing? julie: it looks like mario draghi confused currency traders this morning. he talked about the details of corporate bond buying program and raised the forecast for inflation and said quantitative evening -- quantitative easing should wrap up at least until march 2017. we saw a lot of volatility. the euro is tracking steadily for oil prices, talk about volatility, we saw it there as well. after a salesoil agreement and then a big lift in oil after we got the week the inventory data that shows larger than estimated drop of gasoline,
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and other types of fuels. we have got oil trending back down again. tomorrow morning will be important for more directions, one would hope, for the major averages. >> payroll data, we have so much coming out. thank you. a check of the headlines this afternoon, mark crumpton has more. mark: minnesota's medic looks -- medical examiner announced prince died of an accidental overdose of a pain killer. he was found dead in his estate in the minneapolis area on april 21. the report says that prince self administered the drug, a symptom -- synthetic opioid many times more potent than heroine. from paris to the southern german state, killing six people, thousands more have been forced -- their cars
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forcing castles to shut down. staffers can move works of art to safer round and away from flood risk.re at greece's parliament approving austerityto its program. european creditors have agreed to unfreeze $11.5 million in bailout -- bailout funds later this month. they demanded divisions in may. the main -- main -- maine sales tax increases from 23% to 24%. pregnancy at another record low dropping 8% based on new figures from the centers for disease control and prevention. teen pregnancy rates in the united states have been falling since 1991 and experts attribute the increase to less sex, positive fear influence, and more consistent use of earth control. news 24 hours a day
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powered by 2400 journalists and was 100 50 news bureaus around the world. back to you. >> thank you. hillary clinton has just started giving a speech on national security in san diego. she will be targeting donald trump, painting him as a threat to american does -- diplomacy. clinton is speaking ahead of the california primary and she is in a tight race with bernie sanders. on can watch the speech bloomberg live go and on our live event channel, bloomberg.com/live. clinton giving a speech on national security in san diego. u.s. jobs report could give us clues on the timing of the federal reserve's next policy move. for will the rate hike mean stocks? whether in june or july, higher interest rates will weigh on the stock market.
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matt is equity strategist and he joins me live from boston. it is great to talk to you. the markets seem to be more at ease with a second rate hike. a possibility of more than 50% in july. could remember back in december before the first rate hike, the markets were holding up well. obviously, they very strongly telegraphed that rate hike much like they're doing this time. the stock market held up that when the rate increase actually came, the markets did, -- top -- did tumble. it sets this lie and demand of stocks in a significant way. number one is company buybacks. it raises the cost of eyeing back the shares. didaw with the first one right after the rate hike. the first four months of the year, new announced rate hike
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strapped 50%, even on the first, buybacks were very strong. the new announcements since the rate hike are down quite a bit. another rate hike will have another impact and will keep it from expanding in a major way. we have stockg, exchange leverage, 17% higher than it was an 150% higher than it was at the last tightening cycle in 2004. we have all the leverage out there and the cost will go up, caring that leverage will go up. up again, at least some of the leverage will have to be unwound. because we do not have big stretches in the credit markets from the lower prices of oil, i do not think it will be as bad as february and january but it should weigh out stocks. it is a supply and demand equation. >> is in the leverage a reason why we expect this to go at a much slower pace?
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>> definitely. there is no question. it is funny, people are talking about tom -- about, they could go three more times this year. that would not happen at all no choice but to go at a slow pace. they keep talking about normal pace of interest rates. interest rates are not an equilibrium. they want to get them at equilibrium because rates are lower. they need to move it higher. at a quick level, it means a lot of leverage will be around all at once and that would be a big problem. i do not know if it will be 2008 all over again, but it will be a stressful time. they want to go gradually. i think it will be six months spread apart, much different than in the past. it will be great for the economy and the markets overall. >> couldn't more positive earnings in the second half help support the markets even if the fed moves?
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>> it could. one thing, a lot of people are talking about earnings coming back in a major way and the second half. that should be the case but one of the reasons they will get better is the dollar. the dollar had been very strong last year. that weighed on earnings. this time last year, everyone was talking about how the higher dollars would have a negative -- negative impact. in the dollarnce has taken it right back to where it was this time last year. though it is lower than it was in december, it is much higher than it was two years ago. ernie's should get better, they may not be quite as strong as people are hoping for two months ago before the dollar saw the big bounce. >> you are talking about the rising dollar and that translates to a lower chinese yuan. how concerned should we be about what is happening to china
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having an effect on the u.s.? >> china is a big wildcard in the whole environment right now. some people are very worried, a lot of people saying don't worry, we do not have to worry about that, but then you have other people saying we will run out of reserves very quickly aired one thing that stands out to me as a former trader, as a strategist, i'm unique in that i spent the first half of my career in trading, but when you 50%, once thever market is washed out, it does not go sideways, it bounces back and retraces the selloff in a major way. it really tells people the worst is behind them. the shanghai has only retraced the selloff, trading sideways in the last four or five months.
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i would feel more comfortable if we could see that index bounceback in a more significant majorecause it is not a red flag for the markets right now, for the chinese economy, but it is a little of a yellow one. we macy's see some better action out of the markets. egg meetingsot of today. the opec meeting, for example. i very much expected a decision and that they would go along with saudi arabia's decision or strategy to squeeze out rivals. where do you see oil prices going and how does that affect energy stocks? >> for the energy stocks, i , i amthe best play now positive on oil, the second half of the year. i must admit it has rallied quicker than i thought it would. near-term basis, we have too many people on one side of the boat. sentiment as based by the daily 90%iment index, that got
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bull. that is very extreme. we have the cod data which shows the positions of these traitors and it shows they are getting extreme as well, not -- not major extremes, but still to the high levels. everyone is on one side of the boat. i would expect the oil to pull back 8% over the next 10 weeks. the rally in the dollar will have an impact on that as well. do not worry. it is not the biggest deal in the world. the markets rally 90% and oil rallies 90% and we have already seen pullback for five or 6%. it percent pullback down to the mid-50's -- low 40's, would not be bad at all. it would be normal and healthy. by them on weakness and do not chase them here. for joining us, matt. we have breaking news for you on the presidential race. paul ryan will vote for donald
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trump. mark crumpton has more. mark: speaker ryan made the announcement on twitter. he wrote "i am voting for donald trump in the fall. " i see we are citing a column for a gazette extra that speaker ryan wrote and in it he says, it is no secret that donald trump and i have our differences that i will not pretend otherwise and when i feel the need to, i will continue to speak my mind. is, the speaker continues, on the issues that make up our agenda, we have more common ground than disagreement. the speaker of the house of representatives, paul ryan, announcing today via twitter and a column for gazette extra, that he will be voting for the likely republican presidential nominee, donald trump. you know there have been some back-and-forth.
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mr. trump us is represented as held a series of phone calls because mr. ryan famously said during an interview on cnn last month that he had not made up his mind on whether or not he would support donald trump for president. apparently now he has changed his mind. we will follow that story and have more on the breaking news when we get it. back to you. >> thank you so much. much more to come, including the ceo of citizens financial group p or he will be joining us. stay tuned. ♪
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>> this is bloomberg markets. let's get a check of the market. u.s. stocks are climbing today across the board here it are seeing the nasdaq gaining for the 700 -- the session is up .2%. a six week opened at high. we have seen energy companies weighing on the index. we're seeing a climb .1%. up.dow is also we had data in the labor market, findings for unemployment benefits climbing for the third consecutive week. ice reports showing the company added 173,000 inmate. we are seeing the dow and the s&p 500 and the nass that .aining across the board some ofme for a look at the biggest business stories in the news right now.
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she is notberg says interested in the ceo job at disney. at a conference, she said she is happy at her job and does not want to move. she has been one of the most prominently made -- mentioned candidates to replace the ceo whose concert expires in two years. helped the company during the coca-cola worst battle in 1980 and has died. of michael jackson and other celebrities for the add and threatening rival coca-cola. he won for more than 30 years and retired in 2001. roger was 71 years old. snapchat has 150 million table using the service each day, up from 110 million in december. according to people familiar with the matter, that makes the messaging app or popular than daily active users. twitter had less than 140 million users interacting with
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the service daily. update.your still ahead, a discount retailer five below reports earnings after the bell. onestors have been bullish the stock this year. how much higher can it go? that is next. paul ryan says he will vote for donald trump. it is not a formal endorsement but we will give you the latest coming up. ♪
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senior market strategist at trading advantage. as we have been talking about, the ecb, opec, in the rearview mirror now. now it is all eyes on the jobs report tomorrow morning. how are people positioning themselves ahead of that? >> very cautiously. even this morning, there was not much activity or much on the downside here. we did not see volatility go up at all this morning. i think people are at the sidelines for this one because it is a toss up and the number expected tomorrow is really out of the norm. number revised up to 166 was lower than what we have seen recently. any kind of strong number we see over 200,000 will really put some pressure on the fed to maybe raise rates sooner rather than later. you think there will be a
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continued attention on the wage growth number or the fact that the jobs number is expected to be weaker will take some of the attention away? think it overshadows wage growth on this particular number for sure. that, we areyond getting closer to fed meetings. we learned we will hear from janet yellen as well in earlier than usual testimony at the end of june. you look at the longer dated options. talking more of a month out, what kind of activity are you seeing? >> it is still volatility. it has not increased. between june going out to july or august, i think the interest rate rise has gone down down to like 17% now. rise when she
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speaks here. we are seeing it going further out. if we look in terms of september and october, that is where we are starting to see it kick in a little bit. the summer month options going to july, i do not want to say they are dead in the water but they are not as robust as going out a little further into the fall. to trade.ant to get a tricky industry recently. five below and its earnings, discounters have fared a little better in the current season. >> they really have. those have been the leaders in this earnings season. five below have been hitting on all metrics. you look at what they are expecting for earnings per share and revenue, those are really lofty numbers to hit. they must be pretty confident they will hit those numbers. the market is expecting about a four dollar moves here in this -- in this stock one way or the other. if we get to the upside, that
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will put the stock back to 48. you go in and you know everything is less than five dollars. i heard they may be selling pizza slices at one point here to fit in, seriously, over the of theto take advantage summer month, swimming pool stuff, i really love the stock and i look forward to it trading at 48. trade-in yourour call spread. thank you so much. we appreciate it and we will be watching for those five below earnings. >> still ahead on bloomberg markets, citizens financial group ceo will join us and talk tank regulations and where he thinks interest rates are going next. ♪
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afternoon. mark crumpton has more. mark: hillary clinton is arguing that donald trump is, in her words, fundamentally unfit to become president. in a speech, she detailed what she sees as the dangers of trump's approach to national security. ms. clinton: we are choosing our next commander in chief, the person we count on to decide questions of her mps, life and death. like many across the country and around the world, i believe the person the republicans have nominated for president cannot do the job. [applause] clinton delivered her remarks at the start of a five day trip. house speaker paul ryan says he will vote for paul ryan -- made the announcement via twitter -- via twitter. he tweeted i will be voting for
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donald trump this fall and i am confident he will help turn the house she of the agenda into laws. speaker ryan had initially expressed reluctance about voting for the presumptive nominee. global news 24 hours a day 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. to you. >> thank you. for more, let's bring in megan murphy, the washington bureau chief. are you surprised? >> i am not surprised. it was a scoop a week ago that this was happening. i think the timing was always in flux and they had a lot to negotiate for when this would they try to heal the rift between the gop establishment and the candidacy of donald trump. we are not surprised but there will be a lot of work to be done to get everyone on board as they try to position donald trump as a candidate everyone across the
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party can get behind. >> how much pressure will this endorsement put on those stone online with the nomination? >> a lot of pressure. i want to read a quote from the column paul ryan put in the newspaper making the announcement. he says it is no secret donald trump and i have our differences. i will continue to speak my mind but the reality is on the issues that make up our agenda, we have more common ground than disagreement. that is the message that will be put out there in the next few weeks as we head to the convention and the month toward the general election, he may not be the perfect vessel for what i or the republican electorate has fought for, but if we do not get behind him, we will hand this election to hillary clinton. this is a party when you are looking at supreme court seat the balance of the senate and the house, this is something we cannot approach.
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>> when you look at paul ryan and you look at donald trump, paul ryan is the antithesis of what trump is. there are fundamental, major policy divisions. what are they? >> i am not sure there are just because trump's policies are always in flux. a lot of people think what would happen is paul ryan would be his go to on policy and let's say we're talking about corporate tax reform or some of the issues paul ryan has fought for over the years, that he would have more leeway to put those in a comprehensive legislative way. that is a long way away and there is a usually tough general election fight ahead of them. no question hillary into and has had her policies more out there. she is giving a major speech as we speak on foreign policy where she is highlighting stark divisions. i think the goal now is for paul ryan to help flesh out a little bit of the policy that donald trump has so badly been missing. >> paul ryan says he will be
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voting for trump get what is the difference between voting and endorsing? >> i do not think there is one in particular are this has not been easy. in an ideal world, paul ryan would not have been faced with the choice. he would be more comfortable with a candidate more in line with his approach. he focused on things he really believed were to the betterment of people into smaller government, lower taxes. he has got to get in bed with the candidate going up to the top. that is where he finds himself now. >> earlier today, a wide ranging interview on the economy, central bank policy, and regulation. >> i suggested if congress takes
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another look at where they would like to make some changes, it might be useful to exclude smaller banks entirely from some regulations that have been put in place, again with the same sense of how much you are buying. >> how much would regional banks benefit. most branches in the mid-atlantic and the midwest. thank you for talking to us this morning. let's start with what the fed governor just said. any thoughts on what he announced today? >> there is a coming realization that traditional banks are less risky and we have been caught up in some of the same overall reforms that have added quite a
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bit of burden to our overall compliance. it is good to see that recognition is taking place. we might be able to roll back a little bit on some of the broad effort have been underway. >> what hasn't -- what has the increase regulations so far meant? >> we have 200 people working on that full-time all year round. of 15is probably a cost million to $20 million. a lot of the efforts that go into that i think are really worthwhile. .here is a bit of overkill >> do you think the regional banks are under the same regulations of global safety? >> i don't. doing stress testing and the like and doing overall frameworks around government and capital decisions is a useful thing and an improvement in how their running banks relative to
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10 or 20 years ago. thehey will be removing qualitative parts. >> on this side, some of the part of the supervisory process, it will leave the gem of did you pass or did you fail. it will go through the supervisory process. that would be a good thing and another itself -- in and of itself. >> what are you seeing on the ground. >> corporate customers and banks themselves of all figured out how to operate successfully in this type of economy. it would be great to pick up the growth rate.
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lots of folks would benefit. trying to get that growth rate the economy picks up growth and most of the regulation has taken place. i do not think the leading candidates will have the banking group. >> we heard jamie dimon talking about the u.s. auto lending and the business under stress. how much of a concern as the auto loan market for you? >> it is not much for us because we play in the safe part of the market. we have actually dialed that back down and the risk adjustment returns there are not
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what we would like them to be. we have migrated a little more to things like student loan refinancing and mortgage lending or home equity lending on the consumer side. we continue to see good loan demand in commercial space and commercial real estate. of the day, a fed rate hike that could come as early as this month, july, more than 50% of traders pricing that in. how is the flattening yield curve affecting you? >> we would benefit significantly from increases in the short-term rates. we are hopeful that does take place in the middle of the year. the flattening of the curve at the backend mutes some of that and if it. i think we will manage through it. we try to control the things we can control at the end of the day. we have been able to boost our net interest margin by boosting where we make our loans to find aster risk-adjusted spreads
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i indicated. we have been successful doing that. >> exactly. bank stocks seem to be rising because of the expectation a rate hike will increase net margins. it is not exactly the case for all banks. ae you looking forward to rate hike? >> we would benefit the most from the rise in rates. we are probably number two or three in terms of asset sensitivity or the day cannot come soon enough as far as i am concerned. >> looking for to that. thank you so much and thank you for joining us. aim today. took why is he shorting the company? we will discuss next. ♪
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abigailil good -- doolittle is at the markets desk. abigail: almost a mirror of the adex opened lower both days, tight range and then turned higher, modestly higher, if the index can hold onto the gains, it'll be the seventh update for the nasdaq in a row. helping the nasdaq the most from a sector standpoint is the same as yesterday. we have the health-care care sector up, being close to the most by biotech, up by more than 1.5%, held by all the big names.
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at the, we take a look nasdaq. we see the down trend remains very much in place. uber intelligence analyst says despite the recent strength, it is up about 6%. the bearo celebrate market being over but he does say we could see increased m&a activity within the biotech companies. >> health care boosting the nasdaq. not be surprised by the worst drag is again today and that is technology being heard by apple and microsoft, down. the worst drag is apple, cautious but bearish comments on the iphone and smartphone are nothing new. we take a look at a one-year chart here and we see takes swings up and down and three huge swings down. we are all on concerns about
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smartphones and iphones. the stock is trading back up after warren buffett disclosed a roughly $1 billion position in apple. perhaps the stock and trade to the top, something to watch for. , abigailyou so much doolittle, live from the nasdaq. .hares have fallen dramatically that company is a bankruptcy waiting to happen. oliver is here with more on this. tell us a little bit about the company. following is much as 15% today. what is going on? of itsas regained some losses, now down about 4% and the company's down quite a bit since it was spun off, but that is basically what it is to start from the bottom up. it was spun off from dupont and it assumed a lot of legal liability surrounding the
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production of teflon. if you have a nonstick pan, that is part of the material used in their, used in a lot of adhesive and not adhesive applications. teflon on google, if you never heard of the company, you basically have a plan in october of last year, a diagnosed -- from that plants from pfo a gets into the water and into the community. a lot of outrage over that. liability -- it will basically crush the liability. >> what has changed since then? why is this shorting in now?
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>> it is a good question. it got a little bit high, about six months ago. a couple of spikes in the past year. the case here is kind of interesting here he rose to prominence, he has been around a long time but talking a lot on this call on valeant. if you prepare the -- compare this to other calls, it is a simple case. that is what i was struggling on when i was talking to him earlier. he basically says a bunch of liabilities could go to $5 billion right now. lawsuits.ifferent he says you have got other teflon plants around the world of people suffering from this everywhere your people pile up to the point that people become unbearable and they break. he is basically saying the liabilities will be weighing him
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down here and he said on the trying to it is like swim with weights on his feet. one small way, but it is like an elephant sitting on his head, a very charismatic guy. time it push this much was january. >> it is a question about fundamental issue and these legal issues. 10 analysts surveyed by bloomberg, the stock, five bucks. some people said the fundamentals of the company are still intact and they will get past the legal issues.
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he lied to people. you read the stories, i'm just learning about this today and it sounds like a plot from the movie. >> thank you so much for that, oliver. markets, on bloomberg the close of trading is just minutes away. major averages are all gaining with the nasdaq just rising .2%. the consecutive session of gains. we are seeing the s&p 500 near a six-week high. we will have more when bloomberg markets returns in two. ♪
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>> the u.s. stock markets close in about 10 minutes. julie hyman has your market check. stocks are hanging onto the gains. >> yes, and sort of strengthening into the close as well. similar to what we saw yesterday, is -- a long and slow climb here and we are still not seeing very big gains across the board. the nasdaq is up about one quarter of 1% or look at the s&p over the course of the session. to see what i'm talking about here with this climb. you look at the chart of the s&p a longand you will see and slow climb throughout the day and people are looking ahead tomorrow morning. perhaps with the federal reserve , june, july, and beyond. looking at some of the other assets we're watching that reflect the sentiment about what the fed will do, we are seeing some buying in the treasury market today. it is pushing yields lower on the 10 year.
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it has been falling versus the japanese yen. by dollar index a little bit 1/10 of 1%. the most interesting thing we have seen this week is fading productions that the fed will act in june. high as 44%. still more than 50% chance for june p just to blow up the change and trajectory we have seen here, here you have the change you have seen recently. a rise to about 34% and coming back closer to 20%. againure that will move tomorrow morning. >> thank you for that. let's wrap up the last few minutes of the trading day with
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danny. the s&p 500 keeps flirting with the 2100 level once we break it, we are still down. why wire we still trading sideways? we have nonfarm payroll tomorrow, a big data point. it has been a slow drift up. this is the fifth day and a row that movement has been at .5% and that is the longest streak since november. we have all the these data points we got last week and you can say they will digest it and analyze that for the fed, but that is not happening. we have a lot of sitting and waiting around. ats is an important level 2100, not because it is a nice and round number, but we have analyst who say if we could sustain above the number, we will get another leg in the rally because automated aagedies look at this as momentum indicator and we will begin to buy at this level.
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>> there is one sector investors are concerned about. >> it back. by cali looked at this. it is the industrial sector. short bets on the sector have risen a lot over the past month and tripled over the past month. it is an important sector because a lot of times, investors will look at this as a barometer for the health of the overall economy. these are cyclical stocks. that theht be a sense economy is not as good as the data points with suggest. that health care has redeemed all of its losses that it had throughout 2016, all sectors in the s&p 500 are now positive for the year except one thorn there, financials, which is not altogether that surprising considering we have some uncertainty there. >> thank you for joining us.
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it for bloomberg markets. what did you miss and the market close is next. let's take a look at the major averages. lesson four minutes until the close. we are seeing all of them climbing. the nasdaq up .3%, the seventh , thef consecutive gains longest since february of 2015. we have data this morning showing signs of steady job gains and payroll data coming out tomorrow. the s&p 500 up. you are watching bloomberg markets. ♪
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u.s. stocks closing above 2100.s&p joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" scarlet: the jobs report and the strength of the labor force in may, the three charts you can miss. new optimism after global oil markets show signs of improvement. what happens next? struggle,'s economic loosening capital controls and letting the currency weaken. scarlet: we begin with market .inutes the s&p 500 has closed above 2100. the best close since november 2015. we closed near session highs.
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