anna: china's exports stabilize as a weakening currency give some support to growth in the world's biggest trading nation. hillary makes history. obama congratulates clinton as you become the first woman to run as a candidate for a major u.s. party. and the brexit battle intensifies. david cameron and nigel farage argue both sides of the debate in a tv special. ♪ a warm welcome everybody. i am in london. manus: and i am in dubai.

anna, to get off the chart today. anna: the chart of global equities, manus. the world bank cutting the global forecast. but global equities continue the recent rally unabashed it seems, global equities extending the rally from february. low msci, all country world index, as you can see. let us see the fed increasing rate manus, asian stocks up a bit. adding to that push a little bit higher. we see increased appetite for some of the emerging markets assets, as well as the feature in overnight trading. manus: i mean there is a lot to digest. yen is on the move. emerging markets shifting as well. this is what you need to keep an eye on. i love the story we have on government bond in the united states 50.

term premium, anna. we will talk about this later with james foley. the market is prepared to accept bonds below fair value. a dollar korean yaun, this is down. the longest run of games for the yuan since the emerging markets are definitely getting reprieved. dollar-yen, where can i go to next? is mad dog to be believed? you have to stay tuned for the rest of countdown to find out exactly who mad dog is. anna? anna: i am intrigued. the fed and boj firmly on the agenda. let us get the bloomberg first word news. here is yvonne man. yvonne: barack obama has congratulated hillary clinton for her victory in the democratic nomination race. the u.s. president has also spoken to rival bernie sanders, and will meet him at the white house tomorrow. addressr, clinton

supporters in brooklyn. saying history had been made. hillary clinton: thanks to you, we reached a milestone. the first time, first time in our nation's history that a woman will be a major party nominee. the british prime minister and the leader of the party have argued in a tv special. david cameron said brexit would ruin the global stage if it left. nigel farage argued that it costs far too much, under what he calls a rotten deal. area, in area after things that affect our great country, we would have knows they over. when we want to make sure iran can't get a nuclear weapon, we want to be strong in front of vladimir putin in the ukraine, we do work in the organization. yes, the eu.., and

nigel let us say they cut off their nose to spite their face. you know what? if they put tariffs on us, those tariffs will be significantly lower than our net financial contribution. so no deal is better than a rotten deal that we have in the moment. chief ofhe politics japan's main opposition party said the central bank should ditch negative interest rates because it is spreading unease among small companies. the comments come a month ahead of the election. leasty people who have at $100 million will see the fortunes grow the fastest over the next five years, as stock markets around the world recovery that is according to the boston consulting group who says they will be rewarded with compound annual growth rates of around 9.5% in 2020, as individual and family fortunes search to $425 trillion.

powered by 2400 journalists and more than 150 bureaus around the world, you can find more stories on top . manus: thank you very much. let us get up to speed on the markets. equity markets are struggling for clear direction. emerging markets have a bit of a bit. david ingles as the latest from our hong kong studio. david: exactly, manus. we are seeing a bit or emerging markets a assets. let me show you how asia looks. impaired yesterday, upper momentum. risk appetite is a bit tricky. volumes are quite thin. equally compared, when we started out wednesday, well off. lows in the 70's. we have seen a rebound especially as tokyo entered the afternoon session. but as you can see here as well, pockets of asia still seeing a bit of weakness. going into this morning, you guys were talking about the all country index msci, actually

surpassing the peak in april. trading of the most expensive level, relative to earning, going back six years. that is keeping investors away from some of the markets. southeast asia is mixed at the moment. being pulled up by the philippines. place 225 is all over the because of dollar-yen. we do have an hour left in trade. one half of 1% higher. let me get the dollar-yen, that is the story as far as currency market. it is really about a week dollar on wednesday. so far, dollar-yuan is higher. where is my dollar-yen? if i can find it, 107 is the level. 106.65, went back up to 107. still obviously much stronger against the u.s. currency. guys? anna: david ingles joining us

there from hong kong with a look at the asian equity session. one of the things that markets are reacting to is the chinese export and import data, stabilizing last month with a weakening currency, giving some support to the biggest trading nation. falling by 4.1% in dollar terms from a year earlier, while imports hit 0.4%. here to talk us through the numbers is bloomberg's enda curran, live from hong kong. can we get these and dollars? you get these overall trade balance for export imports, tell us the story this time around. enda; the morning. as the headline suggests pretty tepid for the world's biggest trading nation. the pricing impact in the trade volumes butshows the net effect is the same for china. the export engine is just not there, compared to past year. there were some bright spots in the numbers on the import side.

you see better trade there with germany. that might suggest consumption picking up on the ground. but there is also pricing impacts on the importing side. when you take it all together, it is hard to tell the story of the trade engine returning to revive china's economy anytime soon. we know the manufacturing sector continues to struggle. kind of as you were set of data. nothing especially positive out of it. does reinforcing that china remains in something of a rut, at least on the export trade side of things. manus: enda, what do you make of the latest release from the pcob? we understand there is a paper/ what is it saying about policy? enda: that is right. this paper is essentially spelling out pure, metric terms, declining exports. pcob,t tablets in my the

notwithstanding the nuance of current volumes, if china continues to win market share when prices are down, the net effect is that hurts the economy. but it does remind people that it does have a growth going forward. what the pcob will look to is uan, and that make what a cushion on the exports going forward. if you look beyond exports of course, real estate and infrastructure holding up. those are really the only kind of jobs firing on also wonders at the moment. that is purely dependent on the policy stimulus side of things. even if the bank is not cutting interest rates, they are getting credit into the economy on other channels, making sure houses are getting built and bought, and the same goal is to make sure money is getting sent on the housing projects through the housing banks, making sure money is spent on infrastructure through local government.

i think the signals from the pboc, we are not expecting much of the growth on the stimulus side of things. as long as that remains weak, and will be a dragon growth. we do have to push the weake r yeuan, and other real estate side of things when the floor on the economy. that is the big take away from the paper last night. manus? anna: enda curran joining us from hong kong. elsewhere in asia, japan grew slightly more than was initially reported. helped by revisions and private consumption and business investment. gdp expanded and an annualized 1.9%, giving some relief to prime minister abe after a postponement of the sales tax rise. the world bank says global growth will move at an insipid pace, due to sluggish corporate spending and major economy such as the u.s. and japan. they forecast global gdp growing by 2.4%, a downward revision

from 2.9% estimated in january. that is bring in our guest for the hour. jane foley, head of affect strategy. great to have you. summing that unites the story, the concern about the amount of businesses spending investment, something holding that the japanese economy. it is one of the reasons, along with the rest of the developed market, lack of investment that the world bank is having to downgrade. this is something that they have not managed to fix. jane: connected with a low productivity story, we have that in the u.s. and europe and japan, australia and many other countries, the low level of investment. i suppose you do for the spec a government and 70 to do more to try and stimulate investment. and therefore your productivity up. maybe one productivity goes up, wages go up. living standards go up. this is perhaps the cruz of the issue we have with the slow level of demand. manus: jane, good morning.

i have a little picture for you. it is on the front of daybreak. and i think very much personifies a challenge for the world. my question to you is, through the fx prism, if the world is like pushing us mail, a hard job on an upward curve, if you're that harried about slow growth, here do i buy? do i back away? where do i buy? jane: many investors have been asking that question, really since the financial crisis. this year, that is particularly pertinent. the reason why say that as we look at dollar-yen, these are safe haven currencies. if we look at the past this tellingthink the yen is us something that we are not seeing equity markets. remember at the start of the year, there was a big selloff and risk. equity markets dropped off, the

yen rally. there was a safe haven demand. the yen never really gave back those gains, even as the appetite improved. that tells me that many investors out there are still extremely nervous, nervous perhaps about the slow-paced growth. that simple banks are not having the demand going. and perhaps that china could throw up even more problems for the down the road. 's remaining a very firm currency. anna: i love that daybreak graphic read not just the snail, a very reluctant snail. to the point to gold and all kinds of other assets, and demand for government debt, the 10 year yields, and make the same point that we are seeing a rally in equity. but is the conviction really there? i will come to back to dollar-yen.

that is your forte. dog by myrader, mad friends over in japan, 50 years of trading in the currency market and he says dollar yen is heading to 90. jane: if we think about that price, the first thing that it would say is that clearly there is a weak dollar. if we look at what may create a dollar that weak, it would be the fed not hiking interest rates. many thing that they will not. but if you look beyond that, it was in the u.s. economy is would be very weak, push right off the table. that is not really good. we see the u.s. economy weakening, the dollar goig to those loing to those low levels. but the safe haven rather, back to perhaps be because china is against tripping up, and fears about growth slowdown coming to the fore again. a dollar-yen and 90 is not

something that we in the markets really want to see, because it would really be warning of something quite bad around the globe. manus: let us just talk about the other set of i suppose tinderbox of concerns. this basket of currency. everybody is telling us you do thewant to poke focus on dollar. the basket is dropping here. the question is this, we had the biggest four-they drop in the yuan since february. what happens next with the renminbi? i asked this of everybody this week. jane: we are quite worried about china. you could come back to overcapacity, high level of debt being used to promote productive capacity even. we are very concerned about

china further down the road. and because of that we do think that the renminbi has the capacity to fall quite hard. i do think we did be looking at the trade index, the basket of currencies against the renminbi. and not be focusing on the dollar right now. juneu like the fact that a rate hike is taken off the table, if that is a relief for the chinese authority, because the dollar is rallying hard, that makes the valuation of the renminbi more likely against the dollar. and that sort of pressure can be sidestepped an environment with the dollar is not rallying. we do think the renminbi will have to weaken in order to stability economy. anna: that takes me to my economy question. but no time. we will be back. jane foley stayed with us. here are highlights. we will get gdp from south africa, watching the rating data

announcement that we saw last week. two hours later, we get underway with pressure over the 70 million pay package. and recently in the u.s. as well. we also have interest rate decisions from poland, and also brazil. cameron, that is what it is all about. using his highest profile. of the eu referendum campaign so far, to push his case for staying in. more details from last night's tv special. ♪

anna: welcome back. 1:20 in the afternoon if you're watching in hong kong. it is a weak hang seng in hong kong. 4/10 percent weaker. let us get the bloomberg business flash. here is yvonne man. yvonne: thanks, anna.

millionaire investors saying that tesla motors will become one the biggest in the world over the next decade or two, growing 20 fold to a market value of about $700 billion. his comments sent shares higher, and his firm has a stake in the electric car company. million, or 1%5 of the total market value. toyota is fixing more bugs, working to repair a software problem that can disable navigation systems and the lexus vehicles. the company says the issue can affect radios. prosecutorsrean raided office buildings. it comes after an audit committee after the second largest shipbuilder requested an investigation it into two former ceos for mismanagement. that is your bloomberg business flash.

manus: yvonne man there with your latest headline. the british prime minister david cameron and the u.k. leader nigel farage have argued each side of the grexit issue in a tv special. y woulderon said the lose influence on that stage. they wouldsaid lose far too much in a rotten deal. prime minister david cameron: we would have no say over and will be credit make sure iran cannot get a nuclear weapon, and we want to be strong in front of wedimir putin's aggression, do work in these organizations, nato, the u.n., and yes we need to work in the eu. sometimes they can drive me mad. it is a bureaucracy. it is frustrating. but i honestly believe walking away quickly reduce our national, influence our economy,

and would damage our country. nigel farage: let us just say they decide to cut off their nose to spite their face the biggest export market in the world. if they put tariffs on us those would be significantly lower than our net financial contribution. so no deal is better than the rotten deal that we have the moment. manus: trying to divine the truth with weeks to run until the referendum. the politicians, jane foley is the diviner. the fx strategist, help us here. they are obviously pumping both sides of the story. what i find fascinating is that our very own bloomberg polling index is shifting as well towards brexit. risk are demonstrably rising. are they? jane: they certainly are. if we go back two weeks ago, it would seem to remain camp was getting a larger margin in terms of opinion polls. and it does seem that at the

beginning of this week, believe campaign had it. but i really think it could go either way. and of course, if we consider the volatility in sterling, that would really start this week. really starting strong levels of volatility in the pound, that is like the to continue as long as the polls arnett and neck. anna: watching the other indicators, the betting odds of brexit, as the page with a bloomberg that you go to, this is what manus was referring to. the probability of a brexit is 24.4%. that is higher than it has been. we are watching the story become global as well. we are seeing increasingly, central bankers and finance ministers around the world. janet yellen, talking about this. and the south korean finance minister talking about the uncertainty. this seems to have gripped people in the financial world. not because of the size of u.k. economy of course, because of

what it could do to europe. jane: i think the greatest legacy will be the impact perhaps on europe. if we look at european politics, already a little bit polarized. we see this in the u.s. too, people moving to the far right and left, we see the austrian presidential election beard we see this in spain and portugal, far left and portugal.ain looking at countries like poland, we see a more naturalistic government. we see the trimester there issuing -- prime minister there issuing anti-eu comments. there would be other referendums, perhaps in poland and in hungary. but this is something that is not going to go away. and i think for the sake of coherence in the eu as a whole, i think they're really hoping for a remain vote. manus: jane, let us take that forward then. if we look at euro sterling, it

has been given a haven bed because the fed is not on the graph of pumping higher. euro sterling is moving a little bit more dramatically. we have data, a full-screen here, which is the reduction, the most since 2009. are you cutting exposure? are you recommending people cut exposure in the left window? jane: i certainly have been saying all year that if there is a brexit, it could fall quite rapidly. and i think some of our corporate customers, it has been quite a headache. to be honest, trying to hedge themselves for that possibility. so i think these strategies have an going on for quite a while. but yes, there is a possibility that if there is a brexit, sterling will fall hard. the other thing i would say that if there is a brexit, the euro could servuffer, too. anna: we have to look at the

result in the short term, and the agenda to keep it on the agenda if we do get a remain though. jane foley, head of affect strategies days with us. a historic victory. we will have analysis on the u.s., next. ♪ get ready for the rio olympic games

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annamanus: it is 9:30 a.m. in d. it is 2:30 in tokyo. let us get the bloomberg first word news with yvonne man in hong kong. yvonne: china's exports stabilized the weakening currency getting number boards of growth in the world's because trading nation. overseas shipments fell 4.1% in dollar terms from a year earlier. up $50 lost 4/10 of 1%, billion. meanwhile, the pboc has kept the forecast unchanged, but it has revised the forecast up to 2.4%

from 1.7%. more thanonomy grew initially reported for the first quarter. help the by private consumption, and in business investment. annualizedd at an 1.9%, giving some relief to prime minister abe. the main opposition party meanwhile says the central bank should it negative interest rates because it is spreading unease among small companies. the comments come a month ahead of the election. president barack obama has welcomed indian prime minister to the white house. he will address a joint session congress in a grid after the u.s. said it would not allow him in the u.s. president obama: the world's two largest democracies, and countries with strong bonds between our peoples, our

businesses, our scientific and educational communities, it is natural that the united states and india deep in and broaden our partnerships on a range of issues. least $100ple who at million will see fortunes grow the fastest over the next five years, says stock markets around the world will cover. experts according to the boston consulting group said altra high net investors will be rewarded with compound growth rates of about 9.5% through 2020, as individuals and family fortunes surged to $224 trillion. global news 24 hours a day covered by 2400 or less and more than 150 bureaus around the world. you can find more stories at top . anna: yvonne man joining us there. global stocks in defiance, trading near the highest level of the year with the msci asia-pacific index keeping a six-week high.

caroline hyde as details. caroline: 2.4% global growth down by a half percentage point. who cares? when it comes to buying stocks, near the high of the year. this is the global index, developing world index. including stocks. and we are relatively close at the moment to the highest we saw previously this year. we are gathering steam in the stock market because the united states may be less willing to raise rates, may be keeping that going, so money moving into the stock market. look at the function. this shows you the industry data of what is happening over in asia at the moment. this is the asia-pacific index, currently pretty flat. but if you dig into it, performing around 6/10 of 1%. anding consumers industrials rise. as asiasia take rise,

data taking 4.1% in may exports. but actually that seems to show some stabilization beard imports following, the least since 2014. so a bit of tentative buying of equities and asia. this is what is happening in oil. this is quite interesting. this is what i want to show you. this is the wti and purple. this is the brent crude showing the 90% ramp-up, after the lowest february. it is the opec amounts coming out of nigeria. we are in 1994 lows, you have demand ramping up. supply have largely coming out of the system. nigeria,994 lows for falling by 3.5 billion barrels last week. the appetite for u.s. debt, $20 billion worth of u.s. bonds being sold today. the term premium, this shows you the appetite for debt rising of

the highest demand in 50 years. 10 yearthe index, treasury term premium. it is negative. showing a significant interest in buying tenure debt of the u.s. at the moment. anna: in less than nine months, china's stock market has doubled and then halfed. take is on the roller coaster ride. the roller, come on coaster with me. trillion.h $10 some sense of the scale is what going on. lost $5ramped up, trillion in terms of valuation. in the usa, individual investors very make up 50% of the market. what are we concerned about? a year ago, near a seven-year high. there was speculation that msci would include china. into the index, for one week to

to countdown, hardly a soul be seen in terms of breadth of the market. it is barely moving on a daily basis. if you compare it to the msci asia-pacific index and the shanghai composite in terms of the actual volumes that they have on the move, i will get the right camera. one day. there we go. msci, what does it mean? anna: the cameras, will find you wherever you are. for bernieing sanders to speak. he is in santa monica. should be speaking any moment. we have live pictures of where he should be appearing a little bit later on this morning, or anytime now in fact. we will bring you any comments that he has to make. this, after barack obama as directly to hillary clinton for her victory in the democratic nomination race. also focusing on rival bernie sanders, saying they will meet tomorrow at the white house. hillary clinton addressed

supporters in brooklyn, saying history had been made. you,ry clinton: thanks to we reached a milestone. the first time, the first time in our nation's history that a woman will be a major party nominee. anna: for more, let us speak to steven yaccino. how does clinton reach out to bernie sanders supporters? that seems to be her next to do list. steven: is really represents a new phase in the presidential race for hillary clinton. donald trump on the republican side has been struggling to unite his party. now, hillary has a job to reach out to bernie sanders supporters, and persuade them to back her, not just a backer but too enthusiastically backer.

she can do that couple of ways. she started by congratulating sanders during her victory speech tonight. calling his campaign extraordinary. and she went on to talk about some issues that his supporters really care about. she talked about income inequality. and she also talked in some very harsh terms about donald trump. she called him a temperamental ly unfit to be president. setting up that line of argument in the coming days, which she might present donald trump as the differences between trump and sanders supporters is much greater she will say, it seems the difference between hillary clinton and bernie sanders. anna: and as the battle moves on to clinton and trump, what does donald trump's speech tell us about his general election campaign? and what that might look like? a lot of emphasis put on his tone and the use of a teleprompter today? steven: yeah, it was.

it was actually kind of odd to watch. donald trump got to where he was -- his success built largely on his unpredictability. scriptability to be off and off-the-cuff. and keep people interested in what he will say next. now, he has a lot of flak in the last week or so for some comments he made about a federal judge here. and some people in the republican party, especially in the leadership, have been criticizing him telling him to get on book. tonight was one sign that he was at least temporarily heeding their advice, sending a signal to the party that he is taking this seriously. that he is willing to be the more presidential nominee that they're looking for. at the very least, indicating that he could do that if he wanted to. that is what it seems like it's because about tonight. although, he has some harsh

words for hillary clinton. he says he plans to give a speech sometime next week, targeting the clintons and why he thinks she is unfit to be president. anna: we will look out for that. you suggested monday that may take place. steven, in new york joining us with analysis of the overnight of elements in the presidential race. jane foley is still with us. jane, interesting to see if we can read anything into that town donald trump is using. behave of the attempt to and what is more presidential fashion. mib interest -- that might be interesting to markets. jane: that is true. and markets would like something that would not surprise them. that is not necessarily what voters want. and in fact, you could say that the reason many voters have backed donald trump is that because he is not establishment. that he is something fresh. and again, folks across the u.s.

and europe are going against establishment. it is quite interesting. he is trying to get some of the establishment figures within their own look and party behind him. move away from some of the voters. manus: jane, if i were a betting man at all, and i look at the other market moves in the run-up to the u.k. referendum the election last year, the brexit referendum now, should i buy euro? vol against yen, on a six-month basis? jane: probably, yes. volatility is injected into the currency market. so yes is the answer. but how much volatility? i think that very much depends onclinton's position relative to the opinion polls. the latest poll i saw, on friday, suggested she had a lead

in the national polls over donald trump. if that remains the case, volatility will be relatively consigned. they like something familiar. even though she is the first woman nominee, for policies, it would be another familiar politician. so from that point of view, that is like the to constrain volatility. if donald trump appears to be doing better on national polls, i think dollar volatility will surly jumps inevitably higher. anna: i have a chart for you: have showed it already. a few minutes ago, with regards to the u.s. debt market. the treasury market, the longest term chart i have flown on bloomberg television. going back to 1962, talking back and incredibly, looking at the domestic u.s. situation, anything you can glean from this low yield environment that worries you for the u.s. economy? or is it just the global story?

jane: it is worrying for the global story. the fact that people are still willing to buy or hold interest rates at this low level, suggest that people are still just not confident about u.s. growth. and then from that, not confident about world growth. it is very distressing really, how many years after the financial crisis, that we have these very low levels. anna: this cap bernie sanders walking onto the platform there. this is in santa monica, taking to his supporters in california. clinton has claimed an historic victory. clinton actually praising this man, bernie sanders, for what she calls rigorous debate. she says it was good for the united ace. she congratulated standards for an extraordinary campaign. president obama spoke to clinton, congratulating her. also speaking to bernie sanders. we will see what he has to say to his supporters, as he speaks

there, getting late in california. manus: yeah, let us just run you, we aree, with trying to understand what ability to fed has to raise rates on a progressive basis? whether june or july is off the table, they have debated that to death now. where do we go? is the term premium lower than 50 years ago, what does that tell us in terms of the outlook for the u.s., in terms of the ability to raise rates? clearly weright now, can see probability and market not being competent. what we needed were to be as confident in the growth outlook is fairly a better performance and the payroll data. you could say, and one of the fed officials said earlier in the week that this might have been, but we will have to wait and see another two or three months. but also of course very importantly, we do need to see

more signs of inflation. wage inflation, but we also need pc and cpi inflation. we need better signs of demand-led inflation. possibly these are going to rally or strengthen the next two or three months. if that does happen, that would put a september interest type on the table. and in terms of global growth, in many respects, it would be a relief to have a u.s. economy be the number one economy in the world, strong enough to stave an interest rate hike. i think it would be a good thing. but we're just not there. anna: 0% chance of a rate hike in june, according to the work function on the bloomberg. jane foley, thank you very much. up next on the program, salary. investor pressure today. more on that, next. ♪

senator sanders: justice.

manus: bernie sanders in california, in santa monica addressing his supporters. this is not the voice of a man who sounds as if he is ready to stand down. the senate minority leader, meeting with him tomorrow. hillary clinton declared victory. this is a man that will keep on going. anna: we will see. he certainly said his supporters are part of a political revolution. we will see if he gets to that this evening. addressders are set to martin sorrells pay package. the advertising mobile received the biggest corporate salary of over 70 million pounds a year. a third of shareholders may vote against his compensation at today apm. stephanie baker joins us now. great to have you on the program this morning. how likely is it that sorrell will have his pay voted down?

stephanie: you do have a significant number of shareholders and property advisors advocating a vote against his pay. but it is unlikely, i would suspect, to get above 50%. that is what you have seen so far this shareholder spring. that there has been a lot of movement against executive pay deals, but they have not been able to muster up more than -- except in a handful of cases -- more than sort of 25% of shareholders voting against. packagein sorrell's pay is the second-largest in u.k. corporate history. but the vote today is on his 2015 pay package, only advisory at this stage. manus: stephanie, i am just wondering if he is as combative as usual, in terms of his response on all of this? stephanie: absolutely. you know,'s response is look at the shares price. look at it. it has more than

doubled. his response, if i can more than summit up, is that he is worth it. anna: you mentioned the sort of investment shareholders bring, how does this fit into the broader picture of questions being raised? is this a u.k. story or more broadly in europe, about ceo pay? stephanie: i took a look at this and asked to get an update on where we stand in the shareholders spring of 2016. and it is the greatest level of year, sinces this 2012. so i think there is momentum building. and it is not just in the u.k. you see shareholder votes against volkswagen, deutsche bank, significant votes against goldman sachs, renault. the shareholders have not been

able to get enough support to actually vote these down. what will happen next year, at least in the u.k., you will have a lot of companies having binding votes on pay policies. so i would expect a summer of repeated negotiations between investors and more significant pay deals that are bringing back incentive compensation next year. anna: interesting stuff. stephanie baker, global business correspondent joining us on the story. just over six months in two the governmentgal's new is reversing salary cuts. thee speaking to bloomberg, prime minister said he does not expect the position to plan. >> we are focused on the targets that we had for fiscal deficits, for this year. demanding,d a very but ambitious as well stability program. programave a government

focusing,hat we are and i think that the parliamentary support to the government is not a question at this stage. anna: jane foley, had of affect strategy is still with us this morning. andg day for mario draghi his plan to simulate the euro zone economy. particularly around corporate bond buying. is this going to move markets, or is this kind of already in the price? jane: it has moved markets quite a lot. the credit markets have moved very significant lead. in a way, this has been more of issuance going on, in terms of pricing moving quite a lot. but there are some criticisms of this. many people think the credit market is a relatively small market. does the ecb really think it can make a huge difference? all of the qe has not had a big

impact on pushing up inflation? do they really think this can work? a lot of questions about the impact already. but it is in the price. manus: a lot of it in the price. but there is one record after record, japan, switzerland, germany. what we have here is bund yield at record lows. how does this whole trade circle up in terms of the euro? the euro is no longer his target. i was looking at consensus forecast here, across the rest of this year, this is the bloomberg consensus forecast on euro-dollar. bund yield is on the knees. how do you make sense of this? jane: if you go back to maybe 2014, june i think it was, we saw negative rates from the ecb initially. that created a huge amount of people taking short positions in the euro. that accelerated, just before

the quantitative easing program, earlier in the previous year. but i think over the last year or so, people have reduced those massive euro shorts. and i don't think the market really wants to rebuild them. it is not in that frame of mind. i think you are right. i don't think mario draghi can really push these euro significantly lower. but that is a good thing. if you go back to the g-20 in february, i think since then we have seen a lot of u.s. pressure pushing against currency wars. and against central bank action, which could lead the dollar pushing higher. anna: how much do you think they would do for the euro zone economy? inflation sure is a problem. but inflation expectations is going to be focused, and unappointed is the problem, but some of the parts of the euro zone economy doing pretty well as of late. how much they really focused on extra stimulus, after the deliver all the things they are talked about? jane: i think it is clear, they

very much are in a wait and see mode. i think you are right. we have seen mixed data, some improving data. from countries like germany. and i think if you go until the end of the year, we could see cpi pushing higher. and if that happens, and this is dependent on the oil price above $50, we do see inflation pushing higher, that could have an impact on inflation pushing higher. and we cannot underestimate this michigan impact on psychology. and also on wage setting. at the end of the year, the ecb might fill the more comfortable. but they are not there yet. they don't want to be complacent. there is still a risk they could do more. anna: jane foley, thank you very much for spending the last hour here on countdown. china, all about the data. export stabilizing. how will the yuan support growth, in the world's

second-biggest economy? anna: bernie sanders still speaking in santa monica. he said he will continue to fight until next tuesday's primary. not conceding then, having spoken to president barack obama. more on u.s. politics, when we come back. ♪

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manus: china's exports stabilized as the weakening currency give some support to growth. history.akes obama congratulates clinton as she becomes the first woman to run as the presidential .andidate of a major u.s. party wille sanders says he continue to fight into next tuesday's primary. special.

welcome to "countdown." warm welcome back. -- q1ng news from the total sales down 0.8%. the estimate was down 0.5% to read when you look at comparable sales, down 0.8%. the estimate was for a drop of 0.7%. the overall retail picture in the first quarter, q1 total sales up 0.3%. excluding fuel. they talk about conditions remaining challenging. aboutr retailer talking challenging conditions.

deflation continuing to impact on sales. we know the story of the german discounters who have been taking a bite out of some of these retailers. last week, we heard from the walmart international ceo where he was threatening to cut prices further. clearly a competitive marketplace. the market will remain competitive. they are saving some their promotional activity. where are we in the futures? it looks as if we will have a negative spot of trading. has been next. overall, positive, up 0.5%. a lot of data to come into this trading day. on gdp. data chinese data on imports and

exports. we saw some decent rallies over recent days in global equities. i found that interesting. we have the dollar dropping, oil rocking above the $50 level. some context for our viewers. globalld bank cutting growth outlook. as saying the rich economies are going to stumble. bond yields down. demand highest in 50 years. that is what the market pricing is telling us. lowest since 1962. what does that mean in jargon terms? bond investors are prepared to accept a yield than fair value. german yields down as well. 1.27%. government bond yields in negative territory. dollar yen making a one-month

low. south korean currency up for the four day. emerging markets climbing for the fifth day in a row. the imf saying south korea has -- saying fiscal and monetary the recommendation. yvonne man is with us. barack obama has congratulated hillary clinton for her victory in the race. bernie sanders says he will continue the fight into next tuesday's d.c. primary. ms. clinton: thanks to you, we have reached a milestone. nationst time that our -- in our nation's history that a woman will be a major party nominee.

yvonne: the british prime minister and the issue of ukip have argued. david cameron says britain would lose influence. britain fart costs too much under what he calls a rotten deal. wein area after area, things we would have no say over. when we want to be strong in front of putin's aggression, we need to work in these organizations. in nato, u.n. yes, we have to work in the eu. >> let's say they decide to cut off their nose to spite their face. thosey put tariffs on us, terrorists will be significantly lower than our next financial contribution. no deal is better than the rotten deal we have at the moment. chief ofhe policy

japan's main party -- the comments, a month ahead of an upper house election. wealthy people have at least $100 million will see their fortunes grow the fastest over the next five years as stock markets recover. they will be rewarded with compound annual rate of 9.5% as individual and family fortunes surge. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by our journalists in news bureaus around the world. anna: thank you. let's see what the asian market session looks like. gles isnlists -- in standing by. markets shaking off

the early cobwebs. it did seem the momentum ended in the u.s. session. at session highs. i know it doesn't seem that way when you look at our maps, but that is thanks to japan, taiwan, and south korea. these three markets, down to individual stock stories. taiwan being held up high the likes of hpc. that comes on the back of the company saying they have sold a lot of it. nikkei 225, stock move are there. panasonic. elon musk tweeting the arrangement, clarify the tesla has withat has la panasonic.

across the country. all of this coming ahead of the bank of korea's rate decision tomorrow. take a look at markets that have performed well. hong kong had a stellar session. seeing a bit of weakness. long story short, expect concerns over valuations. we woke up this morning and were alreadyobally at a six year high. imagine with these gains, it should be pushing up those valuations more at the moment. manus: thank you very much. with thelist -- latest on the markets. felleas shipments, they 4.1%. while importss,

slipped. here to talk us through the numbers and to make sense of the percentages, is our guest. take me behind these numbers. should either relieved -- should i be relieved? a tepid think it is, reading. not seen significant pickup on the export side. we know the global demand story is part of the problem. pricing an element, versus volume. that is what hurts the bottom line for the exports in the economy. itrall, i think it is -- speaks to the problems facing the manufacturing sector in china. it the spotlight on areas which are doing well which are infrastructure and real estate. that is what is driving the

so-called stabilization of the chinese economy. out, also worth pointing on the imports for hong kong, we saw a distortion. of course, that speaks to capital outflows. yuanu speak about the been stable, it goes to show you there is still a significant demand among certain people to get the money out of china. the risksou underlying the economy are not far from the surface. at the same time, we are not getting enough of a dividend to offset the week sector. k set of trade numbers. anna: the pboc has put out a paper talking about their forecast. saying the economy shows a signs

of positive change but sticking to the 6.8% target. enda: the chief economist was putting out a paper that spells explaining it does hurt growth. one of the things that is happening, overall volumes are holding up. haverice as far as exports been off. china ishy leading in these others areas like real estate. they could get a cushion from the soft yuan going forward. that could put a foreign expert -- they would need a weaker currency to really get the kind of stimulus dividend on the export side. it is not just about the

exchange rate, it is about week global demand. they are not seeing any quick turnaround for exporters. the manufacturing side, stuck in the slow lane. the new economy isn't going fast enough to fill that hole. anna: thank you very much. elsewhere in asia, japan's economy grew slightly more than first reported. annualized 1.9%, giving some relief to prime minister shinzo abe. world bankthe says global growth will go at corporatece due to spending that is sluggish. they forecast global growth of 2.4%. let's bring in our next guest,

the global market strategist. joining us on set she read to have you on the program. -- during us on the set. great to have you on the program. what on earth can be done to stimulate, boost global growth when rates are so low? guest: you have shareholders and markets warning companies, i back shares. work on short-term fixes. as an economist team, we are struggling to see that long-term spending. that is why you have places like the world bank, everyone three rating growth expectations down. manus: good morning to you. i want to talk about the idea, let's go for a wide shot.

it is a snail. up hill.d to push it my question to you is this. apart from canada, who has the ability to deliver huge fiscal stimulus that is obviously needed? do you like the snail? guest: i do. very representative of global growth. there are a couple of countries, large economies that can do that. europe ifial in politicians can get stimulus going could be important to 6% byeurozone growth by 2025 committee you have the classic stimulus case for japan, cse of the three abenomi arrows. practicality right now is tough to see in most large economies other than, as you mentioned, canada. anna: let's talk about what this

does to global investments. where we have been. we have seen strength returning to global stocks since february. a little bit of a blip in late april. since february, stocks rebounding. we talked about this in the last hour. it is not as if everyone sold gold to read it has not been a rotation with great enthusiasm into stocks. guest: you have had a bit of a huge rocky january, february. now, a few patches of the stock market are selling off a bit. i think the fed outlook has changed that as well. janet yellen's speech and the non-farm payrolls has changed market perception to positivity. a rally of the s&p 500. centralssages from

banks and global growth means people are buying some of those. manus: the other big story we have in our top on section is term premium. -4.7%. a huge bond auction coming. investors are prepared to accept less than fair value. does that frighten you? guest: some of the valuations are frightening across the board. if you have such high valuations and general liquidity lower than it has been in the past, with valuations this high, a small increase or decrease can affect that holding. a big concern in general bond investing. government lawns in the u.s. as well. anna: thank you. up next, brexit battle.

lay outand his opponent their arguments for and against eu membership. ♪

: you are looking at a rather foggy london skyline. 10:20 a.m. in dubai. 7:20 in london. anna: david cameron and nigel farage have argued each side of the brexit issue. mr. cameron said the u.k. would lose influence on the global stage. mr. farage said it cost britain far too much. in area after area, things

that affect our great country, we would have no say over. when we want to try to make sure iran cannot get a nuclear weapon, when we want to be strong in front of putin's aggression, we need to work in these organizations. in nato, the u.n., and yes, the eu. it is a bureaucracy. but i honestly believe walking away, quitting, would produce our national influence. our say in the world and would damage our country. decide toust say they cut off the nose to spite their biggest export market in the world. if they put tariffs on us, they ourd be lower than financial contribution. no deal is better than this. u.k.,let's talk about the

away from the politics of this. the economics you are watching unfold. how much of a slowdown do you see in this referendum? how much of a bounce are you and dissipating on the other side depending onhe results? market horses, the ftse 100, have seen quick action when certain politicians come out on either side. strength from the other side. i am looking more at the longer-term economic trends. investment intentions have fallen 20%. ment has fallen this much because of the risk, imagine how much more it would be after that. we think the same will happen with the pound and equities if the 23rd.to remain on if not, like the politicians

say, there are so many unknowns. the market will have to take that piece by piece. manus: one thing we try to do is make sense of the polls. this is our number cruncher hole. it was showing a remain situation when the rest were in that in that. here we are. definitelytantly -- risk arising. what does this do for the risk in terms of the bank of england? have you guys modeled policy response and the size and scale that might need to be in the event of a brexit? guest: in the event of a brexit, it is going to be difficult to figure out what policy is right to address that. is it terrain on hold? -- to remain on hold? we have a range of these

isectations if a leave vote achieved. more importantly, it is what happens with the u.k. economy in general. it is the policy enough to help after a disruptive effect for the u.k. economy? not making a judgment on the outcome itself, but making the judgment that markets don't like uncertainty, what kind of result doing you to see for markets to move on quickly? even a close vote could leave not question hanging over just our relationship with the eu but also the integrity of great written. guest: for markets to move on quickly, a very strong remain vote would be the right result but those polls are not

suggesting that kind of result. we will have to wait and see, i suppose. what i have right now is slightly left of center but i'm going to run will prices. i love this chart. these bite the most in seven years. this is telling me oil, oil services, we have seen the worst of it and we are past. du at jpmpm -- believe we are in a new corridor for oil? saying $41 andis here we are at $50. guest: i think we are day new quarter after the lows. $40-$50 is our rough expectation. a little higher next year if the supplied in amex get off the market. issue has been

what is driving the price lowered. have turnover in the u.s., you have discussions of freezes. new corridor can be achieved and we do see that. do?: what does that we have seen a bounce since may. both when we saw that fed rates might go up and continuing when he decided maybe they wouldn't. guest: it has been hurting a lot of the commodity exporters. stabilization in oil prices could be good. commodities in the rest of the space have been still struggling and we don't see such a positive forecast for some of those. economies might still see some suffering. anna: thank you very much. the global market strategist at j.p. morgan asset management. it looks as if the futures suggest we could be a little weaker at the start of the trading day.

manus: you and i are going to get into bloomberg. let's see if the oil holds. anna: bloomberg interview with the former u.k. prime minister tony blair. he will be speaking about exit and the state of british politics. ♪

welcome to "on the move." we are counting you down for the european open. i am guy johnson. here is what we are watching. draghi's bid for credibility. the central bank kicks off its corporate bond -- but will there be enough to buy? dismal, now incident. the world bank reachesor