guy: will come to "on the move." we are counting your down to the european open. i'm alongside matt miller in berlin. here is what we are watching. four polls what the u.k. on course to leave the eu. should we believe the numbers? we're going to ask one of the country's leading experts. britain's biggest selling newspaper, "the sun," backs brexit. is mr. murdock on the right side of history? we will ask the former boss of sainsbury's, justin king.

and a big day for china.will be msci back beijing and include the country's domestic shares into its benchmarks? u.k.,the momentum in the the momentum surrounding the brexit story, it just seems to be gathering day by day. these power pulls out overnight, and then there's this. this is britain's biggest selling newspaper. for those of you who don't know, this is an influential piece of paper in the u.k. have?ch influence will it how much will mr. murdock influence the debate in the surrounding whether or not the u.k. should leave? it has certainly had a big impact on past votes in the united kingdom. matt, what is the take in berlin? you have your ear to the ground. is there a sense of nervousness for those that want the u.k. to remain? matt: i have to say, from

talking to commissioners in brussels, there was real concern. they want the u.k. to remain, even though each commissioner i spoke with said they put together absolutely no contingency plan. when you talk to the people on the street in germany, they really feel as though being in the eu is somewhat of a privilege, and if britain wants to leave, britain should then leave, but shouldn't expect to have any of the privileges that come with eu membership after the fact. it's more of a political question, and much like it is in england, the politicians think very differently than the people. guy: some do. some don't. plenty over here feel they have there is to the ground and that they are on the right side of the story. we have a great set of guests lined up. the former boss of sainsbury's will be joining us shortly to

give us his take. usrge osborne tells yesterday that business needs to step up on the side of remain. we are less than half an hour away from the european open; let's take a look at asset classes and what we think will happen at the get-go of trade. the bloomberg is showing us that we will see another negative story when it comes to the european open. continuing -- that is a sterling story you need to keep an eye on. what's happening in asia is just as critical. matt: yeah. the nikkei is down once again. we didn't have the strong losses in hong kong or on the mainland, a look at the nikkei now. 15,000, more investors fleeing for the safety of the yen as brexit odds rise.

regardless of your feelings on whether or not it is a good thing or a bad thing, it is definitely the case that investors are fleeing for safety when they are concerned about the possibility of a brexit. recor low yield ford the bund, and brent crude down as well. let's get to the first work with haslinda amin. matt, britain appears to be on course to exit the european union, with four poles from three companies putting the leave campaign ahead of remain. he uk's biggest selling newspaper "the sun" has backed brexit on its front page. yesterday saw a day of intense volatility in the currency market as the #one between losses of 1% and gains of half a percent says the london

nightclub killer was in style by extremist propaganda, but there is no evidence he was part of a wider group. he says he was the kind of homegrown terrorists that authorities have long feared. he was interviewed twice a was able to buy a handgun legally because he had no criminal record. 49 people were killed in the nightclub shooting. heat the last minute, announced allegiance to isil, b ut there is no evidence so far that he was directed. there is no direct evidence that he was part of a larger plot. with less than two weeks to go before the spanish general election, the candidates of the four major political parties met face-to-face last night in a televised debate. there were accusations

of corruption. were that he presented a package of laws against corruptions, which sanchez ordered against. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . guy: thanks very much. let's stay in asia and talk about what's happening. the msci makes an important decision later on today, after the u.s. close. the deputy md, david lipton, who we hope to speak to later, is making some comments that china should cut its vulnerabilities and allow growth near 6%. vulnerability is still rising, but the midterm outlook,

according to the imf, is uncertain on credit and capacity concerns and the near-term outlook is more poignant with policy support. that sounds like the imf is backing what the chinese are doing, encouraging effective yuan floats. the exchange rate is becoming more flexible. you are looking at a live feed .f that event taking place i want to quickly show you the terminal -- the dollar versus the renminbi. this is a long-term chart that goes all the way back to 2011, approaching this 2015 hi that we saw for the dollar and we are getting quite close to that level. that may be sending a few alarm bells ringing. one of the reasons is because of what's happening with brexit. let's welcome our guest, the cio of sex oh bank. good morning.

the brexit story is having an impact on a bunch of things. the economy has its own issues to deal with, and that currency has been having issues for some time. luckily through the world you see right now. >> if you look at china to start off, which has been the big growth since the financial crisis, clearly they have been in a credit expansion, running credit growth in excess of gdp which means they are building debt. driven by policy is the ability to create liquidity. qe is used toall service existing debt. we don't have a lot to do infrastructure investment so what we see is what china is trying to achieve and when you look at that chart, it is weakening the currency in creating weakness in the chinese

system. but the issue remains the same -- there isn't any fundamental demand. we have exported from china in terms of ppi at cpi, ppi globally as negative and we are in a world where we can to get it started. guy: that's having a big impact on fixed income trade. matt: it is. the bund has had a new low here. 0.0 a look at my screen -- 14 is where it had been trading, and it has even been lower. less than one 100th of 1%, the all-time low yield. i thought it was interesting yesterday -- we had people saying look, get used to this new world, protection of capital

is what you are after. excepting a 0% rate of return is what you do and you are happy if everybody else except the same rate of return and you make a little bit of money. >> it's going to be very difficult, especially in a massive liability environment. .ou have infinite liability pension funds effectively will be bankrupt if you continue with these levels, so we need interest rate to go back up. i will agree with the assumption you made that you have to be very defensive. we have massively overweight the 30 year bonds and the reason is that with everything in the world right now, at the margin, increasing volatility and taking us further away from any structural reform, with the political election, brexit, all of this meaning less clarity to the world which makes you want to belong and the fixed income

assets -- don't forget that u.s. still paid you in excess of 150 basis points over the rest of the g7. it makes no sense in a world with the biggest capital market being the u.s. guy: we will carry on with steve through the program. up next, we will look at the state of the race. with just nine days to go until the brexit vote, this is one of the u.k.'s biggest newspapers. this morning, it is backing the leave campaign. what impact will "the sun" have, next. ♪

guy: britain appears to be on course to exit their european union, with three polls putting the leaf campaign ahead. , uk's biggestlow selling newspaper has backed brexit on its front page. let's get our thoughts with the ceo -- does this set with the narrative you are seeing? >> absolutely. i don't know anyone in the financial industry in the u.k. who wants to stay. i think it's a narrative that people don't trust politicians. the camp on -- the campaign has

been talking down to people. i don't think it works -- what works is getting clarity and showing the vision and the eu should be concerned. but they should also be concerned if they vote to stay. europe is already two-tier. it gives you a fresh chance to reorganize and get started. this is a wake-up call for the eu. it's the eu and how it's going to work. guy: this compiles and goes through the odds and we know have it at 42%. this chart -- you can see it climbing over the last month, absolutely climbing. what do you think caused that? is it that people have woken up and decided this is the way they will go, is it a knee-jerk

reaction, a well-informed decision? the process of this move has been incredibly poor -- the lack of information, the ability to make informed decision incredibly tough. >> we know that people make up their minds between two weeks to one week before the election. what might happen now, it seems like that is the time people leave ahead of the actual votes. what's going on is that people feel talk to down to, and they don't feel there's any solution. the state campaign has always been about scaring -- how does george osborne know -- he can't even predict the next six months budget deficit, but he can tell me in 2030? there is zero ability to be able to foretell what will happen, good or bad. to close not going down trade with the u.k.. they run a huge surplus.

i think this is about redefinition. inability, the social contract -- the brexit comes at a bad time, basically. what thederstand central bank thinks. why thisderstand negative interest rate, because nothing is working. it's not because we are about to turn the corner. the fallacy -- matt: i think a lot of people are concerned that we are at the end of the line. we can't keep drinking the kool-aid because eventually you will get the worst hangover you've ever gotten. not kool-aid, obviously. [laughter] matt: i want to talk about how it's affecting the equity markets. if you look at the volatility, you can see it has jumped 41% in the last three days. regardless of your take on which

way you want to go, leave or stay, it is definitely throwing the markets into a fit. >> absolutely. and i think that this chart to show is the risk reversal in sterling and the equity market. gets,re scared the market the more the market needs to hedge the brexit likelihood, the more down the market goes. it's exactly what you said. if you look at the odds, what i have read is that to win three is being placed on leave, the reverse of what we saw through the lead up to the campaign. i think the momentum is also adding to it, but let's not forget that it's still a 50-50 road. i think it will be much more narrow than people want it to be, and i think the ratification either way shows that the market

feels very threatened. the need something. we need visions, we need the ability to do infrastructure education, basic research, all the stuff that takes a long time to implement. guy: is the market set up correctly? you talk about the risk reversal. people see the asymmetry of what they are looking at. they look at what's happening, and then they derive other assets. is the market getting set up for this one? as we have seen, the real money has been going into the betting, and you wonder where the real money is sitting in the financial markets. >> when i talked to fund a week agohey say everyone told me there was an 80% chance of stay, so if i did anything out with applicable. -- i would look like a fool. i don't think there's a plane

be. i don't think there's a plan b for anyone in the industry. everyone was thinking it was assumed. to weeks ago was a nonissue. looked at business people -- there was a clear consensus. it's going to definitely be a stay, and we wanted to be a leave. and now it's two weeks later and everything is on the table and there is no contingency. what's interesting is in terms of volatility and is still easier to buy at the money, straddles on the european equities than it is to buy on the footse. guy: simple mathematics. but the mathematics,

it isnd of --matt: still trading at 26 times earnings, still relatively expensive. he will stay with us. we are going to take a break, minutes away from the open of trading in europe. we will take a look at the potential corporate movers, including electronics companies . ♪

guy: 7:53 in london. a great day anin london. it looks like it will outperform once again; the reason is that sterling is down. it doesn't take a great deal of mathematics to figure out, with the global income stream at a weaker denominated currency, those assets should be worth more. other markets look like they will open a little bit softer. let's talk about the stocks we need to focus on. corporate news this morning -- let's go to caroline hyde. caroline: amidst all the brexit concern and volatility and uncertainty, we are still willing to splash the cash on the u.k. stock. it's a u.k. listed company electronics component which has been bid for with a juicy premium of 61%. the offer has an enterprise

value of about 792 million pounds. volatilityat brexit is not pawning off volatility. interestingly, one u.k. stock could be on the downside by the it operatest 5%. coaches, buses, trains. one area of that franchise is very challenging. watch this stock fall -- very challenging for industrial and it affects many commuter outlets. then swiss outlet managers could plummet 10% of the open -- look how much is already lost. down 30% of the last 12 months and giving us another profit warning that the overall conditions are eroding.

guy: great stuff. thank you very much. the market open is next. ♪

guy: good morning. you're watching "on the move." we are right here in the city of london. i'm right beside matt miller at moments away from the start of european trading. matt has your morning brief. matt: four polls with the u.k. on course to leave the eu. should we believe the numbers? we asked one of the country's leading experts. britain's biggest selling newspaper, the son, backs a brexit. is mr. murdock on the right side of history guy: will ask a justin king. a big day for china. will the msci back beijing and included the countries the mystic shares into its

domestic shares into its benchmarks? guy: let's took about what we are expecting at this european open. we are down on the euro stoxx by 1%. we are going to see all softer start.- ca softer this is the ftse 100. london predicted to outperform today. but as you can see, we are already starting to fall. this is the london market open. this is the ftse 100. that is a flat line. we're moving into negative territory in terms of the other markets. let's take a quick look at where we stand. london market is down by .9%. let's run in the weei function. 1.2%.ch iran jumping up a soft open for the european equity markets. the market is open in paris and london which is down by .6%.

where waiting for the german markets to open. a softer start to the day -- we are waiting for the german mark to open. a softer start to the day. caroline: risk aversion plaguing the european markets. you got the federal reserve meeting today. you got the bank of japan later this make test later this week. all eyes -- later this week. all eyes on brexit. this is the imap function digging into what sectors are the most on the move. energy being hit. we've got more u.s. data production on stockpiles later today. the financials are falling. top banks up by .9%. what are the ramifications if the u.k. were to leave the european union? what does that mean for the united kingdom banks? clearly concerns among the equity buyers. they are getting out of this risky asset. they are getting into havens.

tumble.ontinuing to and new record. we got record lows, japanese debt, australian debt. 1.182 is where we are currently opening. the yield falling, prices rising when it comes to u.k. bonds. you're getting into havens, the japanese yen. getting out of the volatility trade. there are concerns. this is volatility jumping at the moment when you dig in on the bloomberg, 41% jump in three days. kingdom.or the united keep an eye. thes have a look at some of tops on the move. i have a couple of u.k. players. m&a andnder and resolutely unmoved at the moment. 51%. it meet the

ahead and dam holding. -- gam holding. tycho a couple of things we need to talk about. -- guy: a couple of things we need to talk about it we got u.k. guild opening at a fresh record of 1.17. the boat is on the move -- the boot is on the move. .002 i have seen a drop to percent -- .002%. .e have come so close .002% is what you get if you loan your jump -- if you on your money to germany for 10 years. zero --t any closer to i guess we will likely go

negative if we get more of a brexit lean in these polls. a couple of really fascinating lines over the last couple of minutes. william hill, the bookmaker in the u.k., says leave will be the favorite brexit that by the weekend. we got comments coming through from the imf. beis saying a brexit would unhelpful. to who? you have to ask. i want to show you what is happening on my bloomberg. this is the dollar versus the polish losee. big move there. the markets seen is racing to racing -- is racing to catch up. matt: there is not a plan b or c. everyone has been playing it safe saying i don't want to do anything. it would be expensive.

now i think everyone is scrambling. i think we have to put into perspective. as matt said earlier, we are in a world where we need change. this is the change. exit becomes a catalyst. if you look back to 1992, it was very good for the stock market. the next six months could be very volatile, but this is good. europe needs to be redefined. u.k. has the worst productivity of any country in the g7. -- you have the twin deficit. part of the reason a newspaper like the sun boeing comes out -- the sun comes out -- we need to change it i think this is going to be extremely positive for the markets. for the inability of central banks -- it is a huge wake-up call to these politicians who

continue to talk down to us. what the market gives them is low-interest rates. brexit to some extent to be quite liberating. matt: by the way, i was wondering following this european football story, is it true that england has never won a european cup? is that maybe where the hard feelings come from? is it because they have never been able to win a championship? i am kidding. seriously, take a look at this chart that i've got over the last five years for the stoxx 600 index. the price action in white. in yellow, the price-earnings ratio. we are at 26 times earnings. we are trading still fairly high , close to a five-year high with the exception of this earnings. if people are selling off european stocks in worries about

a brexit, they have not been selling them hard enough. which industry do you think will be hit the hardest? steen: clearly the banking system. the american makes situated in london using the passport of eu will have a huge and strategic problem. the banking sector is a go to first in terms of negativity. of course everyone who has a huge export into euro will find it more difficult to expand plans. there will have uncertainty on what sort of leavy's are going to be put on their export. we go three months from now, the market will clear up. i don't think it will have a material impact on the trading relationship. i think uncertainty is go to stop people from doing investments. i think you're right, matt, think about it, the cost of capital into the model of owning a company is increasing in price in terms of volatility. the top line is coming lower

because of inflation and because the actual topline growth is coming down. i think we need a correction of the p value to a more normal level. all of these events tends to be a good catalyst for the market to change with the abrupt it this that's with the abruptness of -- with the abruptness of the selloff. guy: we get a bigger move on the downside. how far does sterling tables trading 143 right now. what is the midpoint between those two? is indicating a range of 133. you have a potential configure move. historically, you have a three to five move. the market was closed for a full week and opening up was mina 5%. the madrid -- was -5%.

it is roughly 5%. people will do what they do. the currency will have a much bigger intraday move than a day by dave move. you can easily see 133 but we could also have cable trading exactly the same as it did the day before. i'm more nervous about intraday volatility than day-to-day volatility. as a risk manager -- guy: what did you learn from the smb on that basis? >> there needs to be liquidity in the system. thehe sterling is down 6%, bank of england would've cut interest rates. that is the tip of the day when bank of england comes out and provides unlimited liquidity to the u.k. bank system, the bank system -- whether that becomes the turning point. all of this volatility, you stay

short on mutual into the first month, then you have served what central banks do on the day with cuts it when they do cut rates, you look for the reaction. the reaction comes as a turnaround, then you can buy some the risk back. sorry, matt. matt: i was going to say you wait for the real bazooka. we for draghi to bring it out. it is appropriate that you talk about that because we are going to talk more about central banks and we come back. up next, eager get cautious. that is help barclays sees the statement this month. we look ahead to the feds today meeting next. ♪

guy: welcome back. you're watching "on the move." what is on the move, ceo of ask her is speaking at a conference in paris. extremely strong brexit operability. -- brexit probability. dropping below 30 for the first time. you're getting some interesting middle moves. let's can jump to speed with what you need to know, here's haslinda ramin -- amen. haslinda: policy support -- it is medium prospects have become one certain. -- uncertain. in terms of -- is imperative to

avoid serious problems down the road. the fund says while china is positioning to a sustainable growth path, argus has been uneven. -- progress has been uneven. president obama says the orlando nightclub killing -- nightclub shooter was inspired by propaganda. omar mateen was the kind of homegrown terrorists that authorities have long feared. he was interviewed twice by the fbi but was able to buy an assault rifle legally because he had no criminal record. he has -- it is now known that 49 people were killed in the nightclub shooting. >> at the last minute, he announced allegiance to isolate. wase is no evidence that he directed. there is no direct evidence that he was a part of a larger plot. haslinda: french authorities

have started investigating into the killing of a police man and his partner in northern france. the attacker was killed by police and the couple's three-year-old child was saved. if french government spokesperson says it was an act of terrorism. the attacker had claimed allegiance to the islamic state. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . matt. matt: thank you very much, haslinda. the federal reserve policymakers will hold off on raising interest rates at the fmo sees today meeting that kicks off today. shouldeconomist says we expect june statements to reflect and eager committing -- alarm bells. joining us in london is ken taubes. he is head of pine investing --

pioneer investment. chances areask you, zero that we see an increase this month? only 15% and that we see an increase next month? i am looking at my w rp function. they don't get above 50% until february of next year. i will see above 50% chance that the fed raises rates. is this because of the week jobs number.- the weak jobs khiem: i think that is part -- kenneth: i think that is does the market is decelerating. -- the market is decelerating. even though the fed is interested in raising rates and has tried to repair the market, clearly with the decelerating employment situation in the u.s.

, there is really no chance of a hike in june. given the closeness of the expectsolls, no one them to raise rates in the coming weeks. matt: -- guy: could the fed cut rates? kenneth: i don't think so. i think they are interested in raising rates. the u.s. economy is not decelerating. it looks better. if you look at some of the estimates from the atlanta fed and others who are running close to 3% gdp in this quarter. i don't think there is much scoped. it will provide a lot of liquidity. guy: you get the day off the reaction good what is the fed going to do it? day,th: in the end of the they would probably keep in touch with other central banks, provided anyone -- provide any lines necessary. guy: hold that thought.

breaking news, matt. matt: we have been waiting for this. the german bund has gone negative in yields. i've got the chart. this is a five day look. .ou can see the output a red dotted line across the zero level we have come back in seeing trading at one 1000 -- .001% on the german yield. you can see temporarily and momentarily go negative. let me zoom in on this and you can see where it happened. if i can get this to work. there you go. we went down and get briefly below zero. this.er, we talked about can, what do you think about the idea that everybody is willing to accept zero rate and return -- cash. have we moved into that world? can: as a value bond investor, i would find it hard that anybody

would honor a bond less than zero. everyday you on a bond like that, you count -- you compound the loss. the only way to make money is if someone is willing to pay a higher price. as a store of value, i do not see it as a good investment. i think they are better investments than a worse negative yield. guy: i think it is -- i think it depends on your perspective. doesn't that carry on? how much lower do we go? where does the yield bottom out? steen: i think the brexit to be a catalyst. we need to reform the system. we have two presidential candidates who want to spend money. they're fighting over how much money they want to spend. u.s., interest rates are going to leave higher. the fact is we have divergence and central banks in the world.

95% of the sister banks are lowering -- of the central banks are lowering interest rates. bad to go for be value investments in corbett bonds. -- in corporate bonds. portfolio has been outperforming everything. guy: can, when you look at -- ken when you look at how the fed is looking at this. a huge spread. your example exists across the atlantic. money is just piling into the treasury. what is the fed positive view? -- fed's view? is the market skewing force? what the market is doing is quite extreme right now. how do they lean into that story?

kenneth: if i were at the set, i would be thinking about this is a source of easing for the u.s. the dollar since the end of the year has been somewhat weak which has taken some pressure off the u.s. manufacturers. for the more credit conditions because of this, high-yield bonds are up you to date in the u.s. signed spreads have narrowed 200 basis points. -- in the u.s. spreads have narrowed to 12 basis points. autos are doing well. these are all interest rate sensitive sectors. i would say the interest rate drop has caused quite a bit of easing in the u.s. over the last four or five months. guy: we have plenty more to kick around. ken taubes joining us for the next block. to reiterate, we have had a touch below zero on the german 10 year. up next, nigeria's oil production is hit a new low.

we will see how this plays into the oil price next. ♪

guy: welcome back. you're watching "on the move." .et's talk about commodities let's focus in on what we need to be looking at when it comes to oil price. some of the geopolitical tensions we are sing around the world. from -- use of, what

is happening with oil. what is happening in nigeria, fascinating at the moment. >> as we wait for the eia numbers on wednesday, we have had a chance to digest the opec report they came up 24 hours ago and we took a specific look at nigeria, because that is one of the highlights in the opec report. basically, the main culprit in .he fall if you take a closer look at the chart which we have built which combines the nigerian oil production and the oil price. you will see a very interesting inverse correlation could use he oil production has fallen to the lowest level since 1989 -- correlation. you will see oil production has fallen to the lowest level since 1989. on the whole, you had 29%.

you can see the impact it has had on price as well. matt: what are you hearing stateside? when you look at what the bank is doing. when you think about how the u.s. schiller industry is beginning to react. khiem: if you look the u.s. production, it continues to fall. ken: we are missing a pickup in production. the oil production continues to fall. likely the oil price is no more stable. -- is in a more stable area right now. that will have an impact on consumption. we have seen an increase in oil prices in the last few months. guy: thank you very much indeed. ken taubes joining us. of course, thanks to steve jackson. he has been here.

whatever got coming up? we have conversations surrounding brexit. we are going to speak to justin king. 30 minute come station. you do not want to miss it -- 30 minute conversation. you do not want to miss it. ♪

guy: welcome back. you're watching "on the move." how are things in shaping up? the 600 is down by a percent, falling again this morning at london continues to test morning. at london continues to outperform. we have also seen as matt miller was bringing up, a touch below the zero level. a negative german bund this morning. we've seen that trade. the german dax is down by .8%. let's show -- let's find out what stocks are moving the market. caroline: i want to focus in on u.k. stocks that are being hit

by the uncertainty surrounding the brexit vote. polls showing that perhaps the vote to leave is gaining ground. it is hitting the likes of barclays. one of the banks that would underperform in a leave of vote. many of the property builders, the homebuilders have been hit my the concerns that we will stop seeing money being poured into the u.k. property market. 2.5% lower. keep an eye on the ing group as well. pmb -- b.n.p. paribas. these can be hurt the most if the year -- if the u.k. did exit the european union. asset manager based in switzerland, there being hit by the current volatility in trading. a 15% erosion in the capital market capitalization. that is the worst day on record holding.olding -- gam

they are sing performance fees dry up. -- they are seeing performance fees dry up. compare that to $44 million last year. they see it continuing good on the upside, i leave you on the brighter side. m&a is a bit put off by the brexit concerns. touching thatl percent premium being offered by swiss rival. offered 16 5/10 -- 165 pence. [indiscernible] guy? guy: thank you very much indeed, caroline. concerns 50 u.k. will leave the eu. -- concerns that the u.k. will

leave the eu. their businesses much do more -- must do more to make the case for britain to stay. >> investors who are concerned about the prospect of britain quitting should speak up. british telecom has done so today. many other businesses like airbus and bmw have done so. this is not a moment for businesses to sit it out. people should speak up about the risks for quitting. guy: the chancellor making the case for this is his stepping up and saying the case to remain is stronger than it appears. as we have been listening to the chancellor, the betting company has said the brexit chances hit a all-time high at 43%. sun paper coming up this morning and saying that the eu should leave that's saying the

u.k. should -- saying that the u.k. should leave the eu. good morning, just in. the chancellor says the business needs to step up. should businesses be worried? justin: business should've been worried a long time ago. here we are, nine days before. the implication of the chancellor's comment if you a lot of people have been ducking getting involved. maybe have. -- maybe they have. as we saw with the scottish independence referendum, there was a certain rush when became clear that a vote to leave was possible and we are seeing that now. guy: that moment has arrived? justin: it is clear that it has arrived. i don't agree with a single word written. i think we have to make a compelling case for why we stay. i am very pro-in.

that is part of the issue. a lot of people they are minded to leave. all i hearing is people talking about their own game. i am someone that is been inside the eu. i can remember what it was like before we joined. i thought i would work in the car industry. that was imploding. there were no jobs left by the time i came through. i'm not sure when this wonderful independent, self deterministic time was. the 1960's andg 1970's which was the last time we were outside of the eu. i think i have to point out that the benefits we enjoy today have been down this done off the back of -- done off the back of our involvement with the european union. matt: two of the main concerns that people in our world .2 are

-- point two are interest rates. this changes the ballgame for your average man of the street especially with demographics leaning toward retirement. the other thing is immigration. the perception of this wave of immigrants that have come across europe. do you think one of those two matters is more important? -- more important than business leaders coming out and telling people on the street to vote? justin: interest rates are a mina part of the story. -- ra miner part of the story -- are a minor part of the story. i think it is clear that immigration, migration, call it what you will, has become the lightning conductor of the debate. two things are getting inflated.

a proudntry has had history of welcoming people from around the world in their hour of need. if we go back to my earlier life , we had the vietnamese boat people. we have seen this incredible flood of people coming out of syria and other places. i think as a wealthy country, we should more than play our part in trying to help with that issue. there is a separate issue which is all about moving to labor. that is getting conflated. it seems to be the key point is that it is free movement of labor. over 85% of the people living in the u.k. today who were not born the u.k. artwork. -- they are here because we have to createenvironment jobs. -- need toesn't someone

explain that properly to someone in the street? d think as a wealthy person, forgive me,, that we should be doing our part back of the average person on the street seems to have a real problem with immigration, because they have the perception that people are coming and taking their jobs and changing their culture and making it a more dangerous place to live. istin: the key word perception. the only you can address perception is yet to be clear about what the real facts are. people that live in -- is you have to be clear about what the real facts are. --ple that live in the u.k. that doesn't mean that on a local level where there is a concentration of people that come from another country, locals might not feel that it is good to put inordinate pressure on their schools.

it is the fault of governments, whether it be a national government or local government not investing sufficiently in infrastructure. that is what we should be saying. if these workers come into the , -- ry are concentrating to ensure that strain on local services is not felt as hard as it is by people in many parts of this country. guy: why do british people believe the politicians when they tell them that the economic story us that the eu will be worse? withhancellor struggles the economic situation a year down the role -- down the road, will be significant a worse off if we were to leave the eu. the bank of england down the road and many other institutions predict economic activity is terrible. the british people can see what is happening around them.

they are told it is going to be worst and yet they know those economic numbers are based on who knows what? at some point you have to cross the line and say the people you have lined up with a consensus view that they are going to get worse. you kind of boat -- you either believe in some massive conspiracy or you believe that is the center of gravity. guy: your gym with a group of people have an interest in the status quo being maintained. the elitist part of society is getting this has gotten richer -- has gotten richer. justin: whether we like it or not, the elite tends to write out the storm. storm.s to ride out the i think you have to step back. what is the question we are asking? we are currently in today, we are asked a question whether we should stay?

i am not a europhile. i think we should stay in and fight. that is what i think we should do. or we voted to leave. that truly is a once-in-a-lifetime decision. we have seen with scottish independence, a vote to stay is not even a once in a parliament decision. it is interesting to me that if you talk to younger people and all of the data shows this, the younger you are, the more likely be -- i think we should be think about the consequent is. it is clear no roadmap is being provided for how on earth we will do this if we vote to leave . guy: let me put 1.2 you. you.t 1.2

we decided not to join. people argued on the debate. we won the debate in terms of people in the you. we have been voted -- in certain key areas. the british people are looking at this saying we can shake the had isthe success story incredibly limited and we decided to opt out, we are not able to shape it because it there is a decision that is being made. justin: hardly you mentioned two things, euro and schengen. idea that we cannot self-determined important issues while sting in europe clearly is not true. that is what we have been able to -- while staying in europe clearly is not -- we are going to carry on the conversation on

brexit. watching polls from three companies. should we believe the numbers? we have an expert that is going to join us next. ♪

guy: 8:45 in london. welcome back. you are watching "on the move." companiesfrom three all plays the elite campaign ahead and come on the same day backede sun newspaper

the brexit. we have been checking, a gift -- it gets back to normal service. at an event yesterday, brexit campaigner says the pro-european camp is misjudging the british people. >> the remain campaign says that we can't. they're saying we can't do it on our own. i think that they are woefully underestimating this country and estimatingd others the british people. guy: let's analyze the

.- a bit toward leave we're looking at polls around

48.5% to remain. 51.5% to leave. it is not a large movement but it is there. we have only had phone polls for make couple of companies. failing torisingly replicate the difference between internet and phone polls that would otherwise been a marked feature of this referendum. the phone polls always suggesting the remain site was ahead -- the remain side was ahead. even the phone polls are perhaps narrowing and certainly it is about 50% to 48% to remain. matt: i think -- i seem to recall that the polls were leaning toward a scottish exit from the u.k. as well. that did not happen. are there similarities between this and the scottish referendum. >> i believe your memory is incorrect. there was only ever one opinion poll in the scottish

independence referendum that ever put the yes side ahead. on the very same day that paul was published there was another one that said -- the average of the opinion polls never had yes ahead. it comes from a long history of scottish independence. there's never been a time when the polls -- in contrast, we're looking at a referendum where ever since left september, it is already said the polls are suggesting it was close. if you look through the long history of our attitudes and u.k. toward europe, there have and the not so distant past, cameron's bloomberg speech in germany 2013, when we were very keen on getting out. this is an issue on which the public has been devastated the potential to vote to leave. certainly we have had many more

polls wanting for the possibility of leaving than we ever saw in the scottish independence referendum. -- is whetherarly or not the polls move back toward remain as voters look at the risks of leaving as they might see them and decide to switch back. some of that happened in the scottish independence referendum. it often happens in referendums but it doesn't always. i think you heard in that clip, boards johnson articulating what the leave side will do is capture that did everybody tells you you cannot afford to leave the european union. what you show them what you think? -- why don't you show them what you can -- why don't you show them what you think? guy: is that preaching to the choir?

john: by 2010, when we were about where the conservatives, it switched back to the conservatives. given that the social profile of the leave vote is those are less well educated, all the voters, that is particularly the section of the newspaper market, we should not be surprised that this is what the sun newspaper is doing. newspapers struggle to keep the readers and they are not going to offend their readers by following a -- which is contrary to the position of a majority of the leadership. guy: justin, you talked about the demographics. how does the remain campaign make sure the demo you talked about earlier which was a more youthful voter steps up and delivers at this point? what message does the business have to step up and delivered to aboutople and say think

your future? how should it be articulated? justin: it has to start with jobs. one of the things we worry about for our children is what their prospects to have a lifetime of productive work are. would we focus when they are younger on getting the right education? ultimately, that is the story. our young people are going to grow up in the world made poor by our generation. we have been the first generation to bequeath the world to our children which is less well-off than the one we inherited from our parents. safer, will make them all the things we would hope for our children? justin: i think that. -- u.k. inside a reformed eu and only reformed any way that we wanted reformed -- will be the best case for wealth and job creation for our young people. i think that if you come back to

this issue of the balance of what the decision is, membership with the eu is something we can keep under constant review. if it doesn't travel in a direction that creates and that wealth and prosperity, we can make a decision to leave it a later date if we leave now, there is no going back. there is no going back. it is a once-in-a-lifetime decision. i think a decision of that import requires a much clearer articulation of why it is a good thing beyond rallying calls of let's take control of our future destiny. without any articulation of how we are going to go on a journey. there now seems to be an acceptance that it will be an economic step backwards. that is quite significant and double standard. that is still worth it for the destination. i don't take it is. matt: justin, the leave camp a

big part of their plate is an emotional plea. this william wallace independence thing. that is a completely different country. what do you think of the job that david cameron has done? he has broad and gordon brown. do you think he is making -- he has brought in gordon brown. you think he is making the right moves way he is campaigning? justin: there is a contradiction. it plays to the idea that there is some sort of establishment conspiracy. first and foremost, people have got to express their views as individuals, explain why they hold those views are to and articulate in a way that is not self interested. it seems to me ironic that the leading right, quite clearly, i don't think boris disputes this -- the position he is taken is

in his naked little interest. myself thesider establishment. i am a kid that was a brought up in the east end of london. i went to state schools. i do not consider myself the establishment. i consider myself a proud bridge. it is insulting to try and claim that the only legitimate position to have if you are proud of this country and passionate about what he can be, then you have to vote leave. i think you can vote to stay and be all of those things. guy: professor, you interact with the demographic we talk about. you got knowledge of the polling . what is the remain cap need to do to get that demographic onboard to make sure that it votes in a way that the remain camp would like? john: the remain side does have the young voters on its side. younger voters are less

concerned about immigration and more likely to think that britain is better off inside the european union. this one goes well beyond this referendum. it is simply a general rule of all elections and all referendums that younger voters are less likely to turn up and vote. the same was true in the scottish referendum although there was an overall 85% turnout. all the remain side can do is keep redirecting its messages. it simply faces the obstacle that one of the demographics and where it has an advantage is one that is almost bound to be less likely -- is bound to be less likely to turn out and vote. the other core demographic of the remain demographic is more likely to turn out and vote. it doesn't always -- there is no doubt it is going to be a problem on june 23.

guy: gentlemen, we are going to wrap it up right there. justin king joining us from terra firma. thank you very much indeed. stay with bloomberg television. we will carry on the conversation. the pulse is up next. ♪

francine: poised to leave. worse for immigration, wages. the sun backs brexit. markets fear the german 10 year yield goes negative for the first time ever. the yen rises and stocks drop as investors brace for brexit. dangerous detours. the imf cited it is imperative for china to deal with -- we bring you an interview from the first debit managing director live from beijing. -- the first deputy managing director live from beijing. ♪ francine: welcome