♪ mark: good evening. donald trump some very troubled run, what it means for the 2016 race. yesterday, we showed you hillary clinton leading in a head-to-head matchup. the numbers released today are no better. said theyely voters had an unfavorable view of donald trump.

abc news has that number a little higher at 70%. 55% they would never vote for trump. has beenls add to what a synonymy of negative headlines of donald trump, the state his campaign, response to the orlando massacre, and ongoing war with news organizations. it has not been a good day to sit by the tele. >> the latest trump comments have them swarming. >> do they spell trouble for trump? decline, now trailing hillary clinton by double digits. that's not the worst part. an overwhelming 55% of those voted say they could never for donald trump, as well as 63% of women say they could never support him. trumpoll shows donald

with a 70% unfavorable rating. got electedver president of the united states with a 70% unfavorable rating. what theydon't like are hearing and have started to turn against him. >> then there is the latest fight with members of the media. post --he washington with a band, yes or no? the trend is what has really got to be troubling for donald trump. ed has been a month of controversy. after trump's comments, you have paul ryan and mitch mcconnell agreeing with barack obama and hillary clinton about his comments. >> what do you believe is going through paul ryan's mind now? that is some bad information flow for the republican. donald trump is somewhat of a

man alone on an island. he made it clear that being alone on that island is ok with him at a rally today. >> the republicans, honestly, folks, our leaders have to get tougher. this is too tough to do it alone. but you know what, i think i will be forced to. i think i will be forced to. our leaders have to get a lot please, and be quiet, be quiet, don't talk, just be quiet. they have to get tougher, sharper. we have to have republicans did together or let me just do it by myself. i will do very well, i will do very well, ok? based on our poll and donald trump's attitude, how big are his troubles? john: they are pretty big. think that reaction today is maybe the deepest trouble of all. people everyr from day on twitter and other places,

who casted dispersions on trump and say he suffers from narcissistic personality disorder. there, they right notion that you can go it alone and become president of the united states of the nominee of the republican party with no help from anybody. it's all me. it's all going to be me. it is not in touch with reality. realityg in touch with makes it hard to win a presidential race. mark: trump plays by different rules, he has lost a lot of news hillarynd a row when clinton has to deal with her e-mail problem, bad job numbers, he is losing cycles. republicans are noticing. people will make a snap judgment that the race is over, but there's a lot of time left. where he is now is in a bad place, and nothing he has done this week so far has turned things around. john: let's be clear. we started polling trumps

, very badyear ago numbers, very bad numbers, and he improved them. the improved them in the context of a nomination fight where there were questions about his temperament among voters, but not his basic policy stances. now you are in this general election contest, much bigger electorate, many available side. are not on trump's the things he has said and done have, i think, there is a good case to make, that they may have turned those people off possibly permanently. mark: it was a big field, but overmatched. now he's running against two people who can command the stage does as much as he can. he has a big problem. john: he has a very big problem. donald trump's dubious week mate even be more dire than national poll numbers suggest. all eyes are on the republican

leaders who are telling trump to be quiet today, notably paul ryan and mitch mcconnell. neither of those leaders as he did donald advice to be quiet. they are critical of his rhetoric and both dodge questions about him yesterday, making it clear they will not weigh in on the presidential race every time when the presumptive republican nominee says something controversial. we decided to call the main sources of donald trump's travails, the three d's. donors, then the ongoing dissension within donald trump's campaign. let's start with the first d. ,hat data beyond poll numbers will kind of private phone numbers are spooking republicans?

mark: there was a time when they said donald trump may win or may not, but we will get a lot of donations and we will support our majorities. now they are beginning to see that trumps national numbers are starting to affect down ballot races. they will pull a lot during the next week and see how this is affecting things. the minute they think that donald will cost them their majority, there view of the world will change dramatically. could become ait reality. if he becomes a reality before the convention, i believe that mitch mcconnell and paul ryan could move to do that. john: change the rules. it has gone in waves, the donald trump movement and what you would have two do to stop him. wether it can happen or not, don't know, but there are a lot of people talking about it. the trouble for republicans is that if they embrace donald trump, they are worried about getting dragged down.

if they distanced themselves, they are still seeing themselves being dragged down. that's why it leads a lot of people to start thinking what would otherwise be unthinkable. mark: can they win it down ballot victory if they lose estate? there's 25-30 seats max at play in the house. they will bring some races into play that no one is think ing about. john: everybody is going down. mark: say goodbye to the majority. the second d. what is going on with the donor class? that thereems to me

are two different categories, republican donors who got on the donald trump bandwagon reluctantly under are having a lot of second thoughts about it and are not enthused and worried. who weree are those sufficiently concerned before and did not get on the bandwagon . those people, none of them have any plans to join up with the donald trump forces in the foreseeable future. mark: some of the donors have been charmed by donald trump, they like him and are not trying to stand up to him. there are a group of people who were hoping to use the leverage of donors, but donald trump gave a speech last tuesday that the donors would be happy with. lackare freaked out by his of discipline and the inability of others to have influence over his behavior. class will not give to down ballot races if they think it is a lost cause, so they are currently feeling as negative

about trump as a group over as anybody in the party. john: that just feeds back into the thing we talked about at the beginning. in a situation where donors think that donald trump will lose, but survivable in the house and senate, they will take all the money and give it to these down ballot races. titanicsee this is the or lusitania, they would just sit there on their wallets, and that becomes part of a negative cycle that makes losing the house and senate more likely. mark: assuming he makes no mistakes, i think he was see republican donors raising money for hillary clinton. dissension.ird d, we have had a lot of reports. problem.s a big all campaigns got the rough spots. smart campaigns reach out. he sell when the clinton campaign was having trouble.

-- you saw when the clinton campaign was having trouble. diapers, put some plastic sheeting on the bed if they wet the bed. the trunk campaign is in confusion in disarray right now. that disarray is freaking people campaign iswhen a going to turbulence, you want to see stability, cohesiveness. people aren't sensing that and it is frustrating them. the two most influential people in donald trump's world, if you talk to their friends, ,one of them will say to you look you in your eye and say, my guy is running the show. none of them. no one knows. , noatter who you side with one knows who is running the

campaign at this point. most of them won't even say there really is a campaign. mark: if the donald trump campaign could reassured mitch mcconnell and paul ryan that we will pick a great running may come have a great convention, that would settle people down, but the confusion from the campaign is not giving people confidence that they will hit those marks on those big moments. john: they could not stop him from doing some of the damage, and who could stop him? gearing up for another big fight over gun control. we will talk more about what happened in the senate today with a filibuster after this quick word from our sponsors. ♪

mark: after the orlando shooting, talk turned to the potential effects the attack could have on the war on terror, lgbt writes, and gun control. lgbt rights, and gun control. today, donald trump tweeted "i will be meeting with the nra, who has endorsed me, that not allowing people on the no-fly list to buy guns." senate democrats led by chris murphy spent the afternoon filibustering a spending bill and an attempt to add in a memo that would close the gun show loophole and prevent people on the no-fly list from buying guns.

here is murphy talking about the new town elementary school shooting. as someone who represents the community of sandy hook, which , i will grieving today stand on this floor and talk about our experience in sandy hook, orlando's experience, the need to come together on this issue of making sure that dangerous people who have designs on mass murder don't get dangerous weapons as long as i can so that we can give time to try to figure out a path forward. vice president biden is expected to deliver a speech in sandy hook tonight. alluestion as we take this and is whether this is just another temporary skirmish in the gun-control battle or potentially a leading indicator of meaningful change when it comes to gun rights. mark: i think it is a pretty big moment. i don't want over it. -- don't want to overstate it.

you now have democrats in congress being pretty aggressive. i'm not sure what the donald trump tweet means entirely, but it does suggest that if hillary clinton wins the white house, democrats take the senate, and they eat into the house, every clinton could claim a mandate. that would be different than her democratic predecessor, to start the administration that way. things could fall into place that would change the c calculus. it's also the case that mitch mcconnell came out yesterday and , i've nevermments heard mcconnell saying that he would be open to considering gun-control change. but notlow probability, impossible, that a couple of these issues, particularly no-fly, we could get actual legislation passed on this in the next few weeks. it is possible. mark: i think you can get it

through the senate, but not the house. getting it through the senate would be a big win. pass't think anything will until next year, but i think there is a chance that democrats will push this for momentum. john: i think you will see hillary clinton leading the charge. this is a different issue than it has been for 20 years now. mark: even donald trump's allies have now admitted that the presumptive gop nominee has had a not so stellar month. hillary clinton's campaign could choose to sit back and wait and watch while their opponents self-destructs. pretty, clinton has been aggressive. she has kept the pressure on her republican arrival. today whilegain talking about national security and virginia. >> so not one of donald trump's reckless ideas would have saved a single life in orlando. it is just more evidence that he is temperamentally unfit and

totally unqualified to be commander-in-chief. mark: so clinton said in an interview in which she talked about a speech you will give, trump, saying he is unfit. what can she do to take advantage aggressively of donald trump's current problems? john: you saw it yesterday. was a democratic master strategist, i would have hillary clinton and barack obama on a series of issues hammering trump, doing it in tandem, and going after every policy issue, turning it into a character issue. if donald trump reacts, he will give them plenty of fodder. mark: one is that her performance continues to be much better than it was, no more shouting, confidencet

discussion of trump. the second is focusing on data, having her campaign ready to build operations the donald trump can't match. , supportingublicans republicans now that sanders is easing out of the how to time -- announcement of support is easing out of the race. how to time the announcement of support. this will get a ton of attention. there has been a month of advertising in battleground states almost unanswered by donald trump. trump has been taking a long turn in the barrel, it's hard to imagine the five months between now and november will go without hillary clinton having a few bad weeks of her own. her negatives are still pretty high. 54% of voters in our bloomberg politics poll have an

unfavorable view of the presumptive democratic nominee, while 50 5% said the same thing in the abc news washington post survey. know, let's flip this coin around. that coulde things happen that would send hillary clinton into the barrel? mark: the biggest threat to her is the press favoring trump. general election that might be a big advantage. banning the washington post from his events and behaving the way he has on a variety of issues that offend sensibilities, chances are lower that her winning streak will end anytime soon. her e-mails are a potential thing to put her in the barrel. another could be a scandal involving the clintons are clinton foundation. proportions of huge -- john: she has not been gaffe in much lately.

mark: i'm sure it will happen, but i'm not sure it will happen before the convention. they have been careful and aggressive. can'tthe e-mail thing, i help but find some sympathy or sense of agreement with those who yesterday seeing the data revealed that russian hackers had gotten into the dnc computer system as raising a huge red flag around hillary clinton's e-mail. the fact that the dnc's computer was breached raises the question of whether her's was breached. somethingre true and was compromise, she would be back in the barrel again. next, a hillary clinton supporter and an ad person walk into his studio. that is not a joke. ♪

is theoining us now former democratic congressman from tennessee and hillary clinton supporter -- , brade strategist for exe davis. week hasn't been his best or best couple of weeks. i think we would all agree on that. what is being overstated is that this will last forever. i think they will get their act together.

they will eventually work together fine. i think he will be the nominee and will come out of the convention much stronger than you see right now. mark: if hillary clinton said to you, what should i be worried about? what should she see beware it about?orried things, notone two allow donald trump to dominate every new cycle. she is getting her message out. she was able to engage president .bama very early she got the president in midseason form in june worried i did not expect to see him at this level of involvement and this aggressive level involvement until -- is there anything she should be worried about now? >> i think this will be a long race.

decisive week. it has been a good week, but as donald trump is proven, he is resilient. we continue to read data where his supporters continue to stand with him. it is early. she has the advantage, but this is going to be a long race. for anyone in the clinton campaign to believe that this one week will decided, it is misguided. mark: stay with us. we will come back for more from our bloomberg politics national poll, where we ask likely voters who they think the nominee should take as their running mates. we will talk about those names and more deep inside the data on trump and clinton right after this. ♪ . .

john: we are back with republican media consultant and former tennessee congressman and

marginally less handsome man, harold ford. i want to ask fred -- we did this bloomberg politics national: one of the things we asked was through their picks were for their party nominees. the list of potential running mate, want to give you the top four. gurugingrich at 29%, our via, 24%, john kasich at 18% and chris christie at 9%. what do you think of the idea of newt gingrich as donald trump's running mate? is asi think his strength the chairman of the board, the guy who gets to use the bully pulpit all over america. someone who is an operating officer of that list. i would put kasich at the top of

the list as someone who has proven he can get things done while donald is out being donald. think he would pick the gig if you are offered it? fred: i don't think he would. he made his he's with his run for presidency and is happy to be back in ohio. bek: democrats would completely afraid of newt gingrich got on the ticket. orhink there would be six seven marriages on that ticket. him.d: i served with i think he is a smart guy but i think fred is right about the kind of need donald trump has and it is unclear of newt gingrich would fit that role. mark: we asked about potential running mates for hillary clinton. elizabeth war and was the top choice. cory booker, 17%. and julian castro,

12%. -- i believean there is no chance hillary clinton would pick her, but that's the test ready popular support. harold: mrs. clinton has indicated she would keep an open mind. she clearly early on, the most effective critique of donald trump, followed with an equally impressive one. i know cory booker. he could certainly help relations in the congress. i don't know secretary castro, but i do know tim kaine and sherrod brown, i think would bring a lot of things to the ticket and would help clinton sure up some constituency support. i'm going to ask you to do something that is not going to make you comfortable. who do you think would be the best vice presidential pick for hillary clinton?

who would be the best? harold: all of those would be good. but who helped her win and who helps her with constituencies we need the most help with? -- i think kaine those three guys bring a lot to the table. mark: 32% said they had a favorable view of the republican brand. is donald trump helping or hurting the republican brand right now? : i think he's changing the republican brand. it's probably hurting this week. in the long run, i am of the feeling he's bringing new people and new excitement to the republican party. it is a party that has been a little confused through the primary process and i think there's a clarity.

whether the establishment likes the clarity, we will see how that turns out that it is a possible positive. we played earlier in the show donald trump saying today i may have to go it alone here. if i have to do this on my own, i will do it on my own. on with the business of running for president, i can do it on my own. is that a sensible strategy or way of looking at the world when you are a major party nominee? fred: it probably would not have been my advice to him. but you know what it is like in that seat. with paul ryan and mitch mcconnell and people who are very sharp, good, establishment all editions nipping at your heels, what are you going to do? donald trump is not the kind to sit back and let me fall in line. .hat's not why people like him he's out there fighting for his every breath and i think you will do that and i think that's

part of his unusual popularity. mark: if you were sitting in the senate committee and they said if donald trump is at the top of the ticket, you will lose the top of the majority. what would you advise he do? we need toould say change that dynamic and get on board. i agree with harold. hillary and obama have made a great tag team this week. overly elated in america about donald trump or hillary clinton. their negatives are too high. but the democrats have done a far better job of coalescing behind her and moving forward. i think it's about time for republicans to do the same thing. i will probably get a thousand uncles were that that that would be my advice. mark: in an interview, secretary clinton refused to commit to

keeping debbie wasserman schultz as the chair after she becomes the official nominee. what are the politics of that answer? harold: i've said repeatedly i think the chairwoman made things messier than it should have been. she had every right to profess her support for mrs. clinton but i think there is some credence to what bernie sanders was saying. if we reach a point where the only way we are able to keep harmony at the convention is for debbie wasserman schultz not to be the chairwoman and for someone else to run the convention, electing hillary clinton is the most important thing they should be focused on. i don't have any issues with what mrs. clinton is saying. john: i'm going to ask you to put in like you are the chief advisers to bernie sanders right now. what would you tell him to do? harold: to begin to draft a about incomelk inequality and how you have had

your battle with mrs. clinton and mrs. clinton won fairly and you look forward to working with her. i would cite two or three instances where you worked with her in the sentence -- in the senate and let's move forward and make clear we are heading to this convention unified. it appears there will continue to be fishers with the republicans. we need to leave it even stronger. davis, great man, harold ford, adequate man. you are both fantastic. love having you on the show. more from we'll have our bloomberg politics national poll. you are watching in washington dc, you can listen to us on the radio radio. we will be right back. ♪

mark: joining us to talk more about our bloomberg top politics national poll as our colleague, john mccormick who has dug through the numbers. you can read his stories on bloomberg politics.com. he is in our chicago euro. talk about this issue of brand we asked fred davis about. it obviously creates the environment of this election. i think this poll offers some evidence that donald trump is not doing anything positive for the republican brand right now. discussed, only about one third of americans view the republican brand in a favorable way and that's the lowest level we have recorded in a bloomberg poll since the polls inception in 2009.

mark: how is the democratic rand doing? guest: much better. not great, but about half of americans view the democratic party in a favorable light. that sets up the contours for this race those at the presidential level and congressional races and down ballot races etc.. john: i'm struck by a the number in this poll -- 68% say the country is on the wrong track. it didn't stop barack obama from getting reelected in 2012, but it is a strange thing to me that they are that high and barack obama's rating is well over 50%. how do we reconcile those realities? start contrast and seems like an environment donald trump could take

advantage of, that silly americans think america is headed in the wrong direction. the highest number we've recorded going back to 2010 and 2009. it is an atmosphere where a challenger to the incumbent party would have an advantage. we've also asked people about their economic and personal situation in life. a majority of americans say they are better off and would feel better off than they did at the peak of the recession in early 2009. are feeling better about the situation and there's a widely held belief that the country is headed in the wrong direction. the bulk of this poll was done before the orlando massacre , but some of it was done after. what were the top issues for voters in our survey? guest: jobs and the economy are

almost always the top issue people list when we give them a choice to pick from. that was about a fifth of the electorate, americans said jobs in the economy were the top issue. the you combine terrorism and isis, the number approaches and surpasses jobs and the economy. we did see a tick up in those numbers following the terrorist attack in those -- in orlando. we will see how it plays out over the coming weeks but initially, people are at a heightened level of concern when it comes to terrorism, as would be expected. john: we just talked with harold davis and -- with fred davis and harold ford. the numbers, potential running mates were trump and clinton, the fact that 15% of democratic voters say hillary not sure who

clinton's running mate should be is sort of striking given that it suggests there's a little thin this on the democratic bench when she serves to cast about and think about who she should put on the ticket. talk about that a little bit. guest: about one third of the people think that she should pick elizabeth moran, but one person we did not ask about was bernie sanders. while it seems highly unlikely that she would pick sanders as her running mate, if we had him on the list, i'm sure he would have gotten a large share of the vote as well. not that any of us know very well how this will play out. really only the two presidential candidates have a good field who they will be picking. asked about the clinton controversies and which ones bother the voters. i think about this is good news -- 50% say they were bothered by the her wall street speeches.

e-mail server. you have to assume a lot of those are republicans and about half the country or less -- it seems to me those numbers could be a lot higher and basically i think it's good news. what do you think? guest: i would be inclined to agree. on the e-mail issue, there's a certain amount of fatigue. it has been talked about for so another majorss development breaks in the story, a lot of americans are saying it has been discussed. republicans view it as a huge issue and some independents will, but in the broad electorate, when we look at the entire scope of who's going to vote in this election, it doesn't seem to be a massive issue. john: good to see you. you have been with secretary clinton for a wild. everything about this show, and not just this show has been all bad for donald trump and all

good for hillary clinton. how are people around her feeling about the state of the race? i think they are feeling pretty good. they have seen the last couple of weeks born out exactly what a were saying when the tide was should ring in donald trump's favor, back when he seemed like a winner and people were talking about his rust belt strategy and the ways he is going to change the electorate. the were arguing fundamentals are with us. you will see this change once democrats comes home and bernie sanders gets out of the race and are seeing that certain happen. privately, clinton feels the events of the last week have served to mitigate some of her weaknesses or what were perceived as potential weaknesses, namely, precautions. that has been portrayed as clinical calculation in a way this election cycle has gone. especially for republicans who

ran against trump, that did not seem to work. have played things out after orlando, they feel like her caution is turning into a strength which is a big deal. mark: talk about secretary debbie in this issue and wasserman schultz, she being cautious or is there a possibility she would consider removing her? i get the sense they don't want to do anything now to put a foot wrong with bernie sanders. i think they are trying to be careful around that, but i will say i was surprised by how far she went in saying she wants a new party. she used the word new to say how she wants democrats to move forward. bet suggests they could serious about this and at the end of the day, they want bernie and i don'tull back think it's out of the realm of possibility that the b wasserman schultz becomes a casualty of that. mark: up next, we will talk

about donald trump's war against the media and his black listing of the "washington post" right after this. ♪

john: our next guest wrote his latest column about donald trump and he's hoping this will be able to get him credentials to trump half campaigns event. he published a story that came out yesterday on his role as the media punisher in chief.

he's with us here. encountersut these you have been having with donald trump. covering been politics, not as long as you gentle in, but have for a long time. conversationd a where i call and say what's the pollster or strategy and they say no, mr. trump will call you momentarily and there he is on the phone. this is a hard thing for the press, but the "washington post" is absolutely now part of the story. did you get the sense he appreciates the balance of freedom of the press going on here or is he -- does he unapologetically view it as i can just kick anyone out of these events? unapologetic. he told me the "new york times" might be next on his list. inc. fair, if i

don't like what they are writing, i will take a bad story, but if i think it is unfair or inaccurate, i have the right to cut them off as a candidate. some of his supporters like it, but isn't this an attempt to intimidate reporters from writing negative stories? jim: all of my experience as a reporter would say yes, but with donald trump, i never know because he definitely seems to be, there's a motion involved and he seems to get angry and it seems genuine at the same time, but he is also a showman. i don't know. john: you asked him whether he would impose similar kinds of bands if he were elected president. trump came back and says that is different from me taking something away. i'm taking something away where i am representing the nation. it was hard to ours what he was saying, but he's saying i will

be different when i'm president. onsaid these are events held public property, etc.. d have any sense that we should leave him that he would only be a different person and would not try to intimate the press? what's the line in the stock commercials -- past performance is not indicative of future results? you guys have a story today where republicans in the senate was thehought after he presumed nominee that he would change his behavior. said hea case where he was going to get so presidential we wouldn't believe it and he did it. what he meant to say is i'm representing the nation, not myself. would you like to see other news organizations say if

we are in solidarity, we won't cover you? solidarity,ld have he should let the post cover him and we should all make a lot of noise about it. at the same time, we cannot cut off covering the presumed the party. if a third-party candidate shows up, you have to cover him. if our credentials are taken away, so be it. i support the post personally. mark: do you subscribe? jim: i do subscribe. john: do you have any sense that when he threatens jeff bezos that he may be over the line? think it's chilling. itold him that and that's why titled the column "brrr." john: thanks for stopping by.

we will be right back. ♪

we've gotlove polls, polls. go to our website, bloomberg politics.com. coming up, emily chang talks to the ceo of k2 interactive and the president of nintendo america. "with all due respect" is back tomorrow. see you then. sayonara. ♪

mark: i'm mark crumpton. you are watching "bloomberg west." egypt's aviation administration says it has of the airplane

that crashed into the mediterranean last month. the plane disappeared from radar on route two cairo from paris. a new poll shows hillary clinton opening up a double-digit lead over republican donald trump. 50% of those surveyed said they would never vote for trump. margin, voters say trump would do a better job fighting terrorism. connecticut democrat chris murphy launch the filibuster to force a vote on gun control legislation. murphy: having come through the experience of newtown, i've had enough. it has been four years. nothing has been done. despite the fact that 90% of the american public wants us to act. mark: senator murphy possibly came as donald trump said he would