alix steel is on assignment. a wild ride for u.s. today. 283 points joe: the question is "what'd you miss?" oracle undergoes a major shift. joe: europe's largest banks slump on brexit concerns, three charts you can't miss. holdings of u.s. equities are now showing steep declines. we need to start with our market minutes. u.s. equities closing off their best levels of the session. nasdaq, doubt, and finishing positive. nine out of major 10 industry groups rising. energy was the only laggard.

the 10 year yield at the lowest level since september 2012. joe: yields lower everywhere you look. a remarkable comeback in equity markets with the dow up 100 points. it's all about brexit. it's probably going to be like that through next week. big stories of the is the decline we saw to record lows in some of the european bankshares. >> there has been a nice rebound. bank, a bit of a recovery come but let's take a look at a 20 year chart of credits we's -- credit suisse. have we seen a capitulation bottom yet? bonds, the government every day, time for today's

record lows. going30 year yields negative. it looks like it broke the y axis of art chart. japan, record low rates on the very far end. it seems like a matter of time before goes negative there. scarlet: i bet germany's chart looks pretty similar. joe: every chart. it's remarkable. scarlet: look at the pound. raced itsd -- it he losses. that did lead to speculation that voters would lean more towards staying. month, the pound is the second worst-performing major currency, down almost 2%. the worst-performing is the mexican peso. the yenther extreme,

benefiting from the safe haven status it enjoys. versus the dollar, the yen is the highest since 2014. interest rates and monetary policy unchanged ahead of our local election next month and the brexit vote. commodities, we saw a selloff. gold ending down on the day. at the same time that equities did, which is not surprising. losing, there is the beauty i down to -- there is wt i down. scarlet: breaking news from oracle, fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share, missing estimates come $.81 versus $.82. revenue is higher than anticipated, 10.6 alien dollars.

analysts were looking for $10.5 billion. software as an added service increasing 75% to 85%. that is some good guidance for the company. adding 800, oracle new cloud customers. it really is about the cloud business and how much growth they can get from that. joe: i want to bring in bloomberg's cory johnson. >> this cloud software transformation looks powerful. if you lookd raise at the top line, talking about what will happen in the coming quarter, is building off the success they had in the last quarter. without currency, and the quarter and the court of before took a big hit from currency, but without currency in constant

dollars, the business would have grown at 68%, which is fantastic good they're saying that next quarter 75% to 80%. the move to the cloud for oracle has happened very fast. also, adding a lot of new customers. they have four times as many customers as workaday. really adding a lot of customers. the margins are getting better. accelerating,and which is what wall street wants to see from this company because it shows it is making up pivot from licensed software to cloud-based software, still only 10% of sales, but the future of this company is happening now. scarlet: when it comes to oracle picking up share in the cloud business, is it doing it by stealing share from salesforce or picking up new share?

>> it is hard to say. it is unclear how much growth is happening in the whole industry. these are very powerful growth numbers in that business. say it is notill really cloud and there's no such thing as a private cloud and if you have to buy hardware is not really on the cloud. i think that is a mincing of the words of little bit. they want us to believe that cloud is going well. these numbers show us terrific cloud growth. scarlet: what kind of headline could move the stock? i always is in for larry ellison to insult his competitors, and he often does not disappoint. i do want to hear about name customer growth and get a sense of whether they are gaining share in this business or are all boats rising with this tide.

scarlet: we also have earnings from smith & wesson, a big beat for fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share, $.66 versus $.54, so this is a beat, much larger than what the company had anticipated. when it comes to revenue, $222 million versus $214 million consensus estimate. this is a company we are paying a lot of attention to given the potential for growth as hillary clinton pushes for gun control. joe: right, these stocks tend to rally perversely after some of these shootings and talk of gun control, but the results speak for themselves. scarlet: it is up 6.5% in after-hours trading. "what'd you miss?" a rate increase before the 2017 march meeting are before 40%.

hike is still most likely, but it's likelihood has been reduced. for joining us. tell us why you see september as the next time they move. think september is still there because that is the first window they have that is a clean one. they will have the opportunity to see employment reports in cpi numbers and get a better fix on where the economy is. that will. every stop they could to say it is lower for longer, and janet yellen is talking of factors factors that create headwinds to keep that rate low. a lot of momentum is built up to say we will not be moving. she has to get something to the hawks. saying something about september would be considering future events. they will keep some likelihood in the meetings between now and the end of the year. september is that first window. >> a big part of any decision is

the job situation. you provided great analysis of the fed's labor market conditions index, down since january. you really see that it is at lowe's. in the past come you said this proceeded other economic downturns. toyou think it's too early believe that this recent weakness signifies a downturn is on the way? >> i have been telling my class to stay away from that index. everybody wants a nice indicator of the labor market. janet yellen is the first italian of that we have to look at the details. is the first italian of that we have to look at the details. the most important detail is where is the next employment report coming. is what we saw an anomaly or not. we think it is. no other evidence is out there that incorporate that. do we have any sense of where we are in this business cycle? someone argued that we are fairly late.

when people talk about recession, it's not because it is around the corner but because we are at a late stage in recession would naturally come up as the next thing. the business cycle does not die of old age. one of the things we have to constraints on supply conditions that show us that we are reaching bottlenecks. there is no sign of that. there is a lot of slack out there. we don't see any evidence of upward pressure on wages, and that says that there is some room to go, and what we need is the man. janet yellen keeps reminding us that there are a lot of headwinds that keep the demand down. that will keep rates low for as far as the eye can see. about thet to talk headwinds. a lot of people were struck by the use of the term "new normal".

is there an intellectual shift happening at the fed? >> great question. lnci as experimental research, there are no good estimates. there are a lot of problems with this measurement treat to be using experimental research seems a bit much and a bit of a reach. i think it shows how dovish janet yellen is. she is reaching for every excuse she can to give it dovish blush on the data. what she has to do is not only something, bute she has to give the hawks something too. that's why i think there is at least one move this year. be replaced by three newcomers this year. we don't know much about them.

the hawks will argue that we need to know we are serious and make credible the dot plot, that we will be normalizing, and we better start this year. joe: you mentioned janet yellen is dovish, but were not seeing the fed move right now. zero, everyone scratching their heads, trying to figure out how to stoke inflation. one of the things we were talking about is that the international perspective is the new regime for everyone. everyone has to look at global conditions. case?s the is every central bank are no longer have a domestic focus? they have to be looking at the whole world? >> every central bank is recognizing, including the fed. they have always been looking at the rest of the world. what we are clear now about are the transmission channels. the u.s. is most affected by the exchange rate. everything else is secondary.

forces that would keep the exchange rate up and move it up further? we need to have some clear sense of where the policy is. that's the first thing that markets look for, where monetary policy is going in the future. that is what sets the exchange rates. if we could have a clear picture of that, we would remove a lot of uncertainty in the market. joe: thank you for joining us. scarlet: u.s. oil prices biggest ril,day loss since ap dragged down by global growth concerns. that is next. ♪

>> let's get to first word news. u.k. police say a british member of parliament has died after being attacked.

she was shot twice. a suspect has been arrested. been suspended for the day in the british referendum on the european union. lawyers at 44 u.s. companies are urging the senate to consider the nomination of a judge merrick garland for the court. in a letter sent today, the general counsel called garland "exceptionally well-qualified." say a prolonged vacancy on the court could lead to important business issues unresolved. senator bernie sanders is reportedly not being considered as a running mate for hillary clinton. the wall street journal is reporting that her campaign is looking closely at elizabeth warren. the venting is reportedly in the early stages. others under consideration include the labor secretary and hud secretary.

the european union has ease -- it comes against among after iranair sign deals to buy new airplanes. it also signed deals with boeing and airbus. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. scarlet: "what'd you miss?" wti crude falling for a sixth straight day. janet yellen's cautious tone about global growth is curbing investor demand for energy and industrial metals. before we get into anything else, give us a perspective on this six-day selloff in crude. does that spell the end of the five-month rebound? have always been of the view that as soon as seasonal demand reaches a peak, which happens on july 4, we would

start to see rollover. $39 a barrel for the fourth quarter. our forecasthanged for the last five months. a rebound into the seasonal demand window, then a selloff. we are getting. some people attribute it to brexit, but this is just gasoline demand coming off. gasoline prices have broken lower, trading around $1.45 a gallon, so again this is a natural selloff. we are still constructive into next year, so if prices do come down, we view that as a buying opportunity. structurally, inventories will decline into the fourth quarter and 2017, but the summer as we reach that piqued demand season, prices come down because saudi

arabia is no longer there to reduce supplies. joe: has anything change in terms of the supply demand balance in the world? opec says it sees supply and demand coming into balance and are than expected. >> we have always argued that the second half of the year would see a balanced market, then we will move into a deficit by year end and 2017. that view is intact. there is a theory out there that u.s. shale production can swing up and down and balance the markets. we think that is not the case. u.s. shale production is 5 million barrels a day and a 95 million barrels a day market. demand willthink swing up and down as prices role andeen $25 and $30 a barrel

$78 a barrel at the high point. turkey, india, philippines, where you have the highest demand. >> it sounds like you don't think brexit is having much of an effect on oil. look at a oneke a year chart of oil, we see the uptrend has been broken, especially true for brent, european crude, and it looks as though we could see a pullback. you talked about a buying opportunity. what levels would you see as opportunities? >> brags it is a big issue for all financial markets. the reason i don't bring it up too much is because i think rags be incomeit will markets, equity markets, and gold is the one commodity that will move on a potential brexit. will oil fall farther?

sure. but i do think that what is going on at the moment is much more related to seasonal supply-demand dynamics. if you look at the s&p, we are trading up today, so clearly the market is not panicking about brexit. $39 a barrel,ll potential buying opportunity. brexit could change things, and i will talk about that if it does happen. scarlet: that is a game changer for every asset class. the swinghale is not barrel. .t had been declining you see this continuing?

>> it will continue to decline through the year end. it is currently sitting at a .7 million barrels a day, and it could go down to 8.3 million barrels a day. , sorig count is stabilizing with productivity gains across the shale space, we will see affectively a stabilization of then a potential pick up throughout the first half of next year assuming prices stay in the $50 to $60. scarlet: thank you so much. it was great to have you here. scarlet: european banks slump with credit suisse and deutsche bank falling to record lows. three charts that you cannot miss. that is next. ♪

>> "what'd you miss?" european bank shares plunging today to record lows. i want to look at this. when you look at a long-term chart, credit suisse in white, record lows, below the trough levels. aqua and purple, the s&p 500 and the dax. until 2010,related when we had lots of questions about the european financial system, and then this huge

divergence. suggests that there could be a buying opportunity. the way this divergence will converge, we don't know. it may suggest that if we see a correction and equity markets, it may bring a big lifetime buying opportunity at those european banks. it shows specific anxiety about banks, but not overall malaise. scarlet: there is an overall malaise. look at odds checkers implied probability of the u.k. leaving the eu, you will see a sharp turn higher in june. here is a move north. deutsche bank's chairman said brexit would be an economic disaster in the u.k. and a political disaster for the european union. you're talking about european banks moving staff out of

london, resulting in significant restructuring charges for banks where shareholders don't see where the growth will come from. joe: it is quite remarkable and uncertain. here's another thing banks don't like, flat yield curves. in thethink it is flat u.s., take a look at germany, the white line. 58 basis points. up here is the u.k., 76, and here is the u.s. at 88. there is this talk about the flattening of the u.s. yield curve, but if you look internationally, this situation is even worse. it has prompted the european central bank to think of new ways to boost the economy. coming up, i sit down with the behavioral economists on the u.s. election. to benald trump continues so popular among some voters and

what he thinks will happen to the wealth cap. ♪

>> welcome back. .irst word news a british lawmaker has died after being shot during a meeting with constituents. a labour party member of parliament was shot twice. she was 41 years old and elected last year. police have arrested a suspect. campaigning has been suspended for the day in the referendum on whether the u.k. should be the european union. cia director john brennan updated lawmakers on islamic state today. he appeared before the senate intelligence committee. trainingilitants are

and trying to deploy operatives for further attacks on the west and relying more on guerrilla style tactics to compensate for territorial losses. campaignlinton's launches a massive tv ad blitz today. democratictive nominee is running three general election advertisements and eight states. massiveare part of a $10 million six-week television by. -- buy. people killed and a crackdown on protests and if protest in-- ethiopia. ae protest were sparked by government plan to expand the minutes boundaries of the capital. the proposal has since been retracted. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. scarlet: let's get a recap of

today's market action, u.s. stocks closing near their best levels of the session, the dow up 93 points. 280ne point it had swung points, a pretty volatile day. like we would be on our six day of losses, but turned higher midday. joe: a remarkable turn down. brexit is dominating everything right now. all markets watching the pound. we saw that rally in the pound earlier and the market turnaround. scarlet: some companies reported after hours now moving in late trading. a miss oning out with the bottom line, $.81 per share for the fourth quarter, but revenue topped analysts estimates.

smith & wesson also climbing seven percent after profits beat analyst estimates and revenue topped the consensus. "what'd you miss?" brexit is like a divorce without a prenup. i would emphasize the potential downsides of leaving, which are all uncertain. somebody who is thinking about getting a divorce without a prenup and they think everything will be fine. the people i know who have gone through divorces have told me that it will all be amicable, and it is never amicable. that is what this is, a divorce with no prenup rules. scarlet: he also described brexit supporters as those who think with their gut.

i think donald trump is a classic thinking with your gut kind of candidate. don't say, his supporters seem to mind when he says a and a, or when he says things that everybody knows are just false. there is a segment of the population that is angry, especially middle-class whites, men in particular. reason for them to be angry. the wages have been stagnant, but i don't think they are doing any sort of cost-benefit analysis. donald trump, you have to view him as a high risk candidate. people anticipated all the

possible things that could go wrong, they might have another thought. scarlet: i like i you put that, high riskt be a candidate, which would suggest that hillary clinton is a low risk candidate. when and how do people decide? >> people tend to go with a high risk, like lottery tickets, so people love risks that have a distribution like a lottery ticket. i could lose two dollars and i could win $1 million. they hate risks with the opposite, where they could lose a huge amount, so they buy insurance. of the ways in which president trump could cause a third world war or destroy our relationship with our allies and so forth and the potential downside, then i think

they might think again. it seems to be a situation where everybody is fixated on the positive, making america great again. if you were advising hillary clinton, how would you get people to remember that side, the potential losses? suspect that we will hear from president clinton a version of the line she used with now president obama about the 3:00 a.m. phone call. , that he wast was more that he young. with donald trump, it is more temperament and that line is more likely to stick. scarlet: a lot of the issues that have come up in this election were about wealth inequality and how to resolve

that, how to address that even. how would a behavioral economist begin to resolve that? what would be the prescription? weone of the questions that have to ask is essentially whether prices are right. i have done a lot of research and financial markets and we see what looked very much like bubbles. we had a technology bubble, housing bubble, suggesting that prices can be off by as much as a factor of two or three. the same may be true for wages. seen is that growth of the top of his high, and in the middle not so much. does that truly reflect productivity? or is there something else going on? scarlet: what do you think? >> i think it is partly

something else going on. not so much in the founders of companies. i don't think jeff bezos pays himself anything. ceos whose pay is determined by with members who consult some consulting firm that checks the pay of other board members, that does not sound like a market to me. scarlet: a pure review? -- peer review? >> is just joe over there is getting $20 million and we think our guy is better than him, so he should get 25 million. that is not really a market. breaking news, revlon is buying a elizabeth arden for $14 a share, an all cash deal with the 50% rhenium on

elizabeth arden's last close. the enterprise value is $870 million. revlon sees full-year combined company sales of $3 billion as a result. says that scott beatty will be joining the board as a nonexecutive vice chairman as a result of this deal. ♪

scarlet: i am scarlet fu. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. a bombshell from the 93 year old old sumner redstone, removing

five members of the viacom board, including the ceo. that is according to a statement from redstone through his holding company. five new directors were elected. a judge to approve the ouster and replacement. topped estimates after cloud-based products pick up momentum with corporate customers. fourth-quarter revenue included some adjustments with $10.6 billion, exceeding estimates. cloud revenue increased 49% from a year earlier. revlon is buying elizabeth arden for $14 a share in an all cash deal. scarlet: revlon said it committed $2.6 billion in financing is looking for full-year combined sales of $3 billion. scott dede will be joining revlon's board is a vice-chairman, nonexecutive vice chairman.

renewalon deal is a 50% over a elizabeth arden's last close. level.st to that that is your bloomberg business flash. joe: "what'd you miss?" of bitcoin has been surging lately, almost doubling over the last year, and up 6% since last may. "me suspect it is due to the halving". it, what isain about to happen in bit coin world that has everyone so intrigued and contributing to this recent surge? of issuance was determined by the software and 2009 at a decreasing rate over the subsequent hundred or so years, and so to think about

today, 3600 bitcoin are issued every day. next month, it will be 1800 a day, so the fact that there will be less issuance means less supply will hit the market, and that could possibly have a positive effect on the price of that coin. joe: people have known about the schedule for ever. surgech of the recent would you attribute to this? >> i think this is a relatively small part. impact onnk about the supply, it is less than 10% of the daily supply of bitcoin coming from the actual issuance. the other factors like capital flight from china comes speculation in china, people seeing bitcoin as an alternative safe haven asset, i would say those are impacting the price more. joe: we have this chart here.

i don't know whether it is meaningful. it shows bitcoin surging at the same time the chinese currency is weakening. how much activity is coming out of china right now? a lot of the bitcoin transactions are processed in china. happens ine activity chinese exchanges. i would say a majority of the transactions happen there. speculation happens inside china, so there is a connection there. you said speculation. is that a distinguished between using bitcoin as a way of getting around capital control? >> both of them are important factors in china. bitcoin is a convenient way to get money out of china. in china and you

can take it out in any other country and put it in a bank there or fly under the radar of regulations. joe: thank you very much. scarlet: president obama and vice president joe biden went to orlando to pay respects to the families and victims of the shooting. let's listen to the remarks. >> most of all, there is love. america that we have seen in recent days. this afternoon, the vice president and i have the opportunity to meet with many of the families here. as you might imagine, there read is beyond description. through their pain and through their tears, they told us about the joy that their loved ones have brought to their lives. they talked about their sons or daughters, so many young people in their 20's and 30's, so many

students who were focused on the future. one young woman was just 18 .ears old aother said her father was happy girl was so many dreams. there were siblings there talking about their brothers and sisters and how they were role models that they looked up to. there were husbands and wives who had taken a solemn vow, fathers and mothers who gave their full heart to their children. these families could be our families. in fact, they are our families. they are part of the american family.

today, the vice president and i told them on behalf of the american people that our hearts were broken, too. , and thatand with you we are here for you, and that we are remembering those who you loved so deeply. , we have also been inspired by the kurds of those who risked their lives and cared for others, partners whose last moments were spent shooting each other, the mother who gave her life to save her son, the former marine his quick thinking saved dozens of lives. joe and i have the chance to thank the mayor, the chief, the all who have responded in heroic ways, the outstanding police and first responders who

were able to through their professionalism and quick response rescue so many people. we also a tremendous debt of attitude to all the doctors and nurses who have worked day and night to treat the injured. , save lives and prevent more anguish. as one of the doctors here said, after the worst of humanity reared its ugly head, the best of humanity kim roaring back -- came roaring back. let me get that quote more precisely. after the worst of humanity reared its evil head, the best of humanity came roaring back. ourselves,onest with if we want to show the best of our humanity in fact, then we

will all have to work together at every level of government, to do political lines, more to stop killers who want to terror rise us. we will continue to be relentless against terrorist groups like isil and al qaeda. we will destroy them. we are going to disrupt their networks and their financing and the flow of fighters in and out of war theaters. propagandarupt their that poisons so many mines ind aroundsworld -- mo the world. we will do all that. our resolve is clear, but given the fact that the last two terrorist attacks on our soil,

orlando and san bernardino, were appearsn, carried out not by external authors -- plotters, not by vast networks or sophisticated cells, but by thenged individuals or by hateful propaganda that they had seen over the internet, then we will have to do more to prevent these kinds of events from occurring. it will take more than just a military. require more than just our intelligence agencies. as good as they are, as dedicated as they are, as focused as they are, if you have a lone wolf -- have lone wolf attacks like this hatched in the ,inds of a disturbed person

then we are going to have to take different kinds of steps in order to prevent something like this from happening. those who were killed and injured here were gunned down by a single killer with a powerful assault weapon. motives of this killer may have been different than the aass shooters in or or -- auror or new, but the instruments of death were so similar. , but thetown instruments of death were so similar. another 49er debt, 53 injured, some still fighting for their ives, some will have wounds that last a lifetime.

we can't anticipate or catch every single deranged person to hisy wish to do harm neighbors, friends, coworkers, or strangers, but we can do something about the amount of damage that they do. unfortunately, our politics have conspired to make it as easy as or just for a terrorist liketurbed individual aurora toewtown or buy extraordinarily powerful weapons, and they can do so legally. again, this has been true to many times before,

i held and hug leaving family members and parents, and they asked, why does this keep happening. and they pleaded that we do more to stop the carnage. they don't care about the politics. neither do i. neither does joe. and neither should any parent out here. kids notking about the about being in the wrong place, but in places where kids are supposed to be. this debate needs to change. it has outgrown the old political stalemates. notion that the answer to this tragedy would be to make sure that more people in a

nightclub are similarly armed to the killer defies common sense. those who defend the easy accessibility of assault weapons should meet these families and explain why that makes sense. they should meet with the some of whomies, joe sought yesterday, whose children would now be finishing is thatade, on why it we think our liberty requires these repeated tragedies. that is not the meaning of liberty. i am pleased to hear that the senate will hold votes on preventing individuals with possible terrorist ties from buying guns, including assault

weapons. senators risehat to the moment and do the right thing. i hope that senators who voted no on background checks after newtown have it change of heart, and i hope the house does the right thing and helps to in the plague of violence that these weapons of war inflict on so many young lives. before, we will not be able to stop every tragedy. away hatred and evil from every heart in this world, but we can stop some tragedies. we can save some lives. impact of ae the terrorist attack if we are smart. and if we do not act, we will

keep seeing more massacres like this. we will be choosing to allow them to happen. we will have said that we don't care enough to do something about it. here in orlando, we are reminded not only of our obligations as a to be resolute against terrorism, we are reminded not only of the need for us to implement smarter policies to , we aremass shootings also reminded of what unites us as americans, and that what unites us is far stronger than the hate and terror of those who target us.

who areany people here lesbians, gay, bisexual, nightclubr, the pulse has always been a safe haven, a place to sing and dance, and most importantly, to be who you truly are. that includes so many people who se families are originally from puerto rico. sunday morning, that sanctuary was violated in the worst way imaginable, so whatever influence led the killer down the path of violence and terror, whatever propaganda he was consuming from iso-and al qaeda -- isil and al qaeda, this was an act of hate on the lgbt community. americans were targeted because we are a country that has learned to welcome everyone, no matter who you are or who you love.

and hatred towards people ,ecause of sexual orientation regardless of where it comes , is a betrayal of what is best in us. joe and i were talking on the way over here. break up the world denigrated then and and express hatred towards groups because of the color of their skin or their faith or their sexual orientation. feed something very dangerous in this world.

so if there was ever a moment for us to reaffirm our most basic beliefs that everybody counts and everybody has dignity , now is the time. it is a good time for all of us to reflect on how we treat each on respectto insist and equality for every human being. we have to end discrimination and violence against our brothers and sisters who are in , here at homenity and around the world, especially in countries where they are routinely prosecuted. we have to challenge the oppression of women wherever it occurs, here or overseas. there is only us, americans.