♪ the those urges the most against the dollar since 2009 has called to remain take the lead. to beent putin is said part of a estate selloff to china and india. the rupee and indian bonds dropped after a governor decides to leave after his term and. -- term ends. welcome to "countdown."

it has just gone 6:00 here in london. manus: i am manus cranny in the -- in dubai. a shift in the risk sentiment. anna: gaining momentum over the weekend with the latest polls which put the remain camp three points to six points ahead of the levers. let's go to the risk radar and show you what is going on in foreign exchange markets. this is very much the brexit story, the anti-brexit story. rally in spurred a high-yield currencies, up by point -- at 1.459 3. the aussie, the kiwi, emerging markets, the euro, all of these getting a little bit of a reprieve because of the polling.

the expression of risk sentiment that we saw last week in the pound versus the yen, that is reversing a little bit as well. in there as well, the indian rupee. over the weekend, we heard that rajan is going to be leaving at the end of his term at the end of september. the r.b.i. selling dollars. that is according to traders in india this morning. manus: let's talk about some of the other asset classes. 2-year note's, the yield is rising. perhaps the most highly correlated with the view of what happens next in the united states in terms of interest rate rises. yellen talking about a new normal. chicago talking about leaving rate hikes off the table until we had 2%. a mismatchrd says between what we are saying and

doing. are still at the second-biggest long position ever on record. positions up 29%. crude at thex bottom of the screen, up 1.1%. my argument would be that you , the lowestlar close since june 9. that is all playing into the nymex crude trade. $48.51. let's get across to heidi. 's antiestablishment movement is poised to win elections, threatening to derail the prime minister's reform agenda. support for the eurosceptic party would give the italian capital its first female mayor.

is considering selling off stakes in russia's oil companies to china and india . this, according to two people familiar with the matter. moscow wants to raise $11 billion from the sale of almost 20%. helpedl would not only budget shortfalls, but strengthen ties with asia at a time of -- with asia. undermining prime minister shinzo abe's efforts to revive the economy. over $380 deficit of million. has made the steepest decline since november after the central bank governor announced he would be stepping down. he said on saturday that he would be leaving the top position when his term expires

in september, and returned to academia. dropping the dollar peg after years of resistance, finally getting into pressures. say pent-upnalysts demand for dollars may push the naira at least 20% weaker. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in bureaus around the world. find more stories on the go -- at . manus: a reprieve, renaissance, a window. how do you describe it? the word of the day probably is reprieve. investors willing to get back into equities. we always knew this would be a volatile week for equity markets

given the volatility on june 23, really pumped up by the fact that governor rod john -- governor rajan saying over the weekend he would step down. 2.25%.kei 225 of it is now on track for its biggest gain in two months. the yen weakening as we see investors get out of safe haven assets. this game coming despite some pretty disappointing trade data out of japan. here in hong kong, the nang seng index holding on to those earlier gains, up by over 1%. that is the hong kong stocks steepest gain in two weeks. news coming through from real estate developers. on thehose oil companies oil price, up by over 3%. the rally in commodities also helping out the australian share market, up by 1.3%. due to data

regarding home prices in may. they are building homes in fewer cities. generally, a very positive session. it started in the red on the back of governor rajan saying he would step down from the r.b.i.. we have seen a little bit more buying coming through in the early part of trade, led by tech stocks, but also some movement coming through from basic materials as you would expect. also, seeing a little more of a comeback coming through from industrial players. i will show you the indian rupee. it has fallen by the most since january. certainly a bit of dollar strength coming through there, down by 0.4%.

anna: thank you. brexit campaign has resumed since the killing of joe coxe. -- jo cox. speaking yesterday, david cameron laid out his arguments for staying in the eu. mr. cameron: if we want to leave, we can leave. but if we do leave, that is it. we are giving up on this organization which, even if we leave, will have a huge effect on our lives, our children, our opportunities. i don't think britain, at the end, is a quitter. anna: the justice secretary and leader of the programs and campaign insists that -- the pro-brexit campaign insists that british businesses would be better off outside the market. >> we should not be governed by

the rules the european court of justice imposes on us. our guests bring in for the next hour or so, larry hathaway. .ood to have you on the program nice to see you bright and early this monday. give us your up-to-date view on where this whole thing will lead us on tuesday. it is all a bit reminiscent of the scottish referendum, where polls late in that particular episode showed a leave outcome, which was ultimately reversed. yorkshiree tragedy in has had in effect. i think that, ultimately, when voters go to the polls, it will have to weigh the emotional votes versusese the viability of u.k. outside of the eu. from that perspective, i think

it was always natural it was going to be tight. it still looks as though remain is the more likely outcome. i suspect the markets will be volatile in the period in front of us. manus: good morning from dubai. what i have here, it has gone from over 30% to 40%. -- is thereis this really so much of a relief rally to be had in dollar-sterling if we vote to remain? if it is a really close call in would thatndum, throw a dark cloud over us for a very long time? people reassess the sterling exposure. they: the outcome of referendum itself feels like a coin toss, but the outcomes in the market are anything but symmetric. if it is a remain vote, i think

sterling can gain a bit more ground, but it would lose far more in the leave column. perhaps the downside from here is 10% to 15%, if not more. that has to do with other issues that will then take over and try the value of sterling forward, including the fact that the economy is showing some signs of weakness. the fed prepares the groundwork for further rate normalization. anna: we have done a survey of european funds, and we have a fairly bullish expectation where european stocks go but the end of this year. 9.9% by december, that shows the upside that we would be required to meet that. is that because money managers are not factoring in a brexit? larry: i think the markets are

probably reckoning more with remain and with exit. there is of course the issue that people have been calling outperformance for a long time, and what has held europe back is really the absence of an earnings story. the really has not been a genuine recovery of earnings, particularly relative to high expectations. also, the market has always been position or europe to outperform. i think that getting brexit out of the way will give european shares a better chance to do what they have been long touted to do. as we have to watch closely the season unfolds next month and into august and september. anna: would you go by that upside by the end of the year? larry: i think the gains from here are likely to be modest, as well. anna: here are some highlights of your week ahead. later today, nigeria's foreign

exchange policy takes the stage after the central bank said they .ould let the rate float tomorrow, fed chair janet yellen begins her semiannual monetary policy testimony to the u.s. congress. on wednesday, we get u.s. mba mortgage applications data. thursday is the big day where voters go to the polls in the eu referendum. u.s. durable goods data for the month. manus: we're going to talk a little bit about russia. president putin said to weigh and $11 billion stake sale to china and india. ♪

♪ welcome back. 6:16, bright and early, here in london. 1:16 if you're watching in hong kong. equity is moving up this

morning, moving on the latest polling data. let's get the bloomberg business flash. haidi: u.k. house prices have continued to climb in june, with only the capital experience a decline at this week's referendum on eu membership. the cost of new property london felt like 0.2% last month. the property website operator report also said that london is the most vulnerable to a brexit. five employees on leave as credit squeeze conducts -- credit suisse conducts an investigation. the southwest and israel test focusing -- israel desk posting on ipos. declined to comment aside from confirming that the staff had been placed on leave. long-awaited

sequel, "finding dori" -- " " makes $136 million in the u.s. and canada, topping the box office this weekend. manus: thank you very much. let's get into one of our main stories. vladimir putin is considered to be selling part of a company to china and india. a stake in to sell russia's oil champion. a possible reelection bid in less than two years. very good morning to you. tell us a little bit more about this potential deal, selling rosneft. this would be pivoting to the east, when it? >> there are two very interesting trends embeddedness

story. the first is an economic one given the low oil prices and the pressure that a their own oil producers around the world. the second big theme is, of course, geopolitics. it is vladimir putin and russia. let's start with those low oil prices. we know that oil prices have collapsed over the past two years. it has really spelled trouble for government to have relied on oil exports to fund their spending over the past two years. russia has been one of them. that means we have seen a whole bunch of governance of state owned assets for sale. not far from where i am in abu dhabi, the big one has to be saudi arabia's potential sale of saudi aramco. oflooks like putin is sort following that playbook, selling off what is really a crown jewel in russia's empire, rosneft. anna: this brings to get a russia and india and china, a

complex mix. >> that is exactly right. we know that russia is looking at china and india, in particular. this makes some sense given current relations with the west. they have been strained ever since the situation in the ukraine. it was also an economic angle at play here at a time when china's economic growth is playing -- is slowing down. india's is picking up. india has kind of been the surprise consumer of oil. their gas consumption is forecast to jump almost 15% this year. as the country becomes wealthier, incomes arise -- consumption is rising. economic and a geopolitical angle, it does make sense for russia to reach out to the east at a time when it is really becoming increasingly isolated in the last.

manus: thank you very much. let's bring in larry hathaway. he is with us in london. when you look at this kind of putin,r, potentially by and we look at what the saudi's are trying to do in terms of the ipo of savvy -- of saudi ara mco. is this the last breath for the upside in oral -- upside in oil? >> i think it does reflect some of the new political considerations. way, as also, by the financial angle in the sense that china and india are trying to diversify reserves? from the perspective that you asked, i would simply point out that oil prices are supported right now by principally

declining production in north america. the big in investment in that space has trimmed some 8000 barrels per day from u.s. production alone. it is being matched by some reduction falls elsewhere. therefore, i expect oil will be pretty much range bound at the current levels as supply and demand find a closer balance. swing factor will remain with the dollar. anna: let me pick up on exactly that. i have a chart here that puts together the u.s. currency. it has been bolstering the appeal of commodities, it seems. the index in the white, the wpi oil price in blue. you can see, at least in the most recent trading day, dollar coming down and oil price coming up a little. in what situation do we see the dollar the thing that moves the oil price? i think dollar and

commodities is a loose relationship. it has been important, as you just pointed out. i think we have to get back toward rate normalization in the u.s.. right now, the market is paying one in three chance. if we pull some of those moves forward, i think it will give the dollars some support. manus: the one thing that everybody has discussed is the -- just carrying on from our theme, which is, at $50, the world is hardly running on a real rate of growth that would inspire you. the imf warned of a possible recession in the u.k. if there was a brexit. the u.s., some say, is running out of steam.

what oil prices are needed to sustain a 2%, 2.5% in terms of growth? larry: i think global growth is more stable than is commonly perceived. u.s. growth is just about 2%. china is slowing, but gradually. european growth has actually been upgraded this year, the only region of the world where that has taken place, at least of any significant size. global demand, therefore, is fairly steady. the big swing factor has been on the supply side. $50 per barrel isn't a bad one for the world economy. up forides a fill consumers, but it also avoids some of the big downdraft we saw last year and early this year in the oil investment sector. this seems like both the right price but not a bad price in terms of stabilizing global output? anna: we will hear from janet

yellen, she will be testifying with her semiannual report on the state of the u.s. economy. you mentioned your expectations. the work function on the bloomberg shows that toward the end of this year, only eight 39% chance of a rate hike rise. -- movedmoved a long around a lot since the start of this year. what are you looking to hear from yellen this week? larry: it is probably going to move up a little bit if they continue to move markets around brexit. we have always -- we've already seen the high-end of the u.s. yield curve selloff a little bit because of that. as far as yellen is concerned, i think it is mostly steady as she goes. in other words, the u.s. economy is growing at a relatively modest pace, but definitely above trend. the key variable to watch is the

labor market. is it driven by shortages of skilled workers or is this some kind of a genuine slackening of demand for labor? inflation come in various measures, has been moving higher, albeit very gradually. we're going to get a kick from headline inflation is oil prices stay up here as well. i think all of that adds up to a fed that is willing to look at each meeting as in play. probably now, not until september. anna: larry, thank you very much. up next, we're going to talk a little bit about india. , the search is on for india's next central bank chief. we assess the impact, next. the timing is interesting. that is one thing some people are talking about with regards to the tension in the market around the brexit debate. further analysis from india what we come back, and we will get

the thoughts of larry hathaway on monetary policy and emerging markets. here's a quick look at london. a bit of a gloomy sky this morning. ♪

manus: it is passed 9:30 in dubai, 6:30 a.m. in london. let's get the bloomberg first word news with haidi lun. : good day to you. the eu referendum campaign has resumed after it was suspended in the wake of the killing of labor and p joe coxe -- mp jo cox. new polls show remain with a slightly. speaking yesterday, prime minister david cameron laid out his argument for staying in the eu. >> if we choose to leave, we can leave, but let's be clear, if we do leave, that's it.

we are walking out the door. we are giving up on this organization, which come even if we leave, will have a huge effect on our lives, our children, our businesses. i don't think britain at the end is a quitter. i think we stay and fight. that is what we should do. >> the justice secretary and exit campaigner michael combs says british businesses would be better outside the single market. >> we should be outside the single market. we should not be governed by the european court of justice imposes on us, which cost business and re-strict freedom. haidi: italy's antiestablishment movement is poised to win elections in rome, threatening to derail prime minister matteo renzi's reform agenda. the surge in for the eurosceptic party would give the italian capital its first female mayor.

consideringin is selling a stake in russia's state will company to china and india, as he struggles to hit spending targets. this is according to two people familiar with the matter. moscow wants to raise $11 billion from the sale of almost 20% of the crown jewel rosneft. the deal would not only cover budget shortfalls but strengthen ties with asia at a time of strain relations between russia and the u.s. and europe. nigeria will drop its dollar peg after more than a year of resistance, giving in to the pressures that have battered its economy. say pent-up demand for dollars may push the naira 20% weaker. global news 24 hours a day powered by 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus run the world, you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus: thank you very much. haidi lun in hong kong for us.

let's get to the asian markets. they are rallying. u.k. futures are up. the town has a brisk pace to it. nejra cehic joins us. : we are seeing asian stocks rise. the msci pacific index is rising by the most in three weeks. ftse 100 futures, up as well. this after we had a poll showing the campaign for the u.k. to stay in the eu up by 3%. if we take a look at stirling, it actually has jumped the most since 2008. it has reached its highest in three weeks, this after its first weekly gain. we are also seeing volatility pulling back, looking at one week and one month of volatility on sterling. this pound rally we are seeing,

it is spurring a global rally in higher yields in currencies. the pound is the best performer against the dollar, looking at this function on the bloomberg. we are seeing the euro move higher, up 8/10 of 1%. the norwegian krone, the south korean won, on rallying. on the other side, you are seeing some losses in india's rupee after the central bank governor rajan announced he would step down after his term ends on september 4. look at the yen, worst performer against the dollar, weakening after a 2.7% surge last week. we are seeing a move away from as we are seeing this risk appetites in markets. 1.65% on the 10-year yield. gold has benefited in the past three weeks from these concerns over brexit, risen to its

highest in two years, but we are seeing it come down. anna: let's move on and stick with what is going on in japan. seem to be different ideas on the yen. manus has got the chart of the hour. what are you talking about? manus: we know that the market has shifted. we know that the market has gone risk off, and we know the yen has appreciated. this,'ve got for you is it's a little bit of a rainbow, but bear with me. 2012 to 2015, the big body of this chart andre ethier, what me here,eeing -- under what you are seeing is net short positions. china, the brexit, the fed stepping back, suddenly the market goes net long, but who is holding a short positions?it is the domestic japanese investor . they use reversals. the took your financial exchange, the reversal is the

play are you sell the yen, and you buy the dollar when it rallies. the domestic japanese investor loves the rally in the yen. they get to sell it against the dollar, and they have used a regression model. for everyone been percent rally 1% rally in- every the yen, you see the change. this is about who is going to get the squeeze if more money goes into the yen. the momentum has turned around. what you are dealing with is a market, which has gone from deeply net short, which is the bottom part, to net long, but the big squeeze will come with the domestic investor who loves a yen rally. who would have thought that could happen? anna: let's stick with the japanese theme. mr. yen has a new production for us. the former finance ministry official now sees the currency surging to 100 by the years and. -- year's end.

>> by the end of the year, it is likely the yen will move to 100 or break 100. if it breaks 100, the bank of japan intervention is possible, but in order to intervene, you have to get agreement from the united states. i don't think the u.s. would agree with japan to intervene in the markets. anna: let's bring in brett miller from tokyo, bloomberg's japan and korea economy editor. governor kuroda is giving a speech later on. do we expect them to say anything new about the economy? we are waiting for the government's reform agenda in the autumn, aren't we? >> yes, that's right. governor kuroda will be speaking this afternoon at one of the most prestigious colleges in japan. we expect him to speak broadly about monetary policy, about how the japanese economy is going. the level of detail he goes

into, we are unsure at the moment. he spoke at length last week when the bank hit the interest rate policy -- cap the interest rate policy unchanged. we will have the boj press corps following him, and we will be watching up for any comments as to brexit, as to how the yen is going, and how he sees monetary policy going. anna: sorry about thatanna:, brett miller joining us from japan. let's get to larry. what did you make of this latest production from mr. yen? you've got a chart that shows where the currency has been, the currency heading for an annual is the the boj -- gain boj refrains from expansion. where do you expect the japanese currency to head?

larry: 100 is not that far away. it's possible. it could happen if there is an exit, and i think money will flow into japan as a safe haven currency. it could happen if the u.s. economy unexpectedly slows and we push out the fed rate hikes further than they are. yen isral, it seems the forming a bottom, and we are likely to see the dollar-yen moving higher overtime. in part, that's because that is what japan needs. japan has few policy levers left to pull. from that perspective, yen weakness will reassert itself. larry, tell me this. what does it take to get coordinated intervention from the g7? what does it take to let the japanese and the world intervene? larry: under normal circumstances come intervention by central banks, particularly coordinated intervention, follows a period of rapid and

disorderly market moves in currencies, and that is not something we have seen. we have seen a big move in dollar-yen from 122 near its present levels, but it has been fairly orderly. it has not been something that has particularly alarmed japanese policymakers. we haven't seen any policy responses to it. by extension, nowhere else either. i imagine it would be the market outcomes we might anticipate if there is a vote to leave the u.k. at the end of this week where you can see sharp movements not just in the yen crosses but of course the sterling crosses, as well. those are the circumstances in which a coordinated intervention is imaginable. short of that, i sense we are still a ways away from that outcome. anna: let's get another thought from you on what is going on in japan. the structural reform agenda is something we have heard from the

government they want to give us more details on in the fall or autumn. do you have high hopes for that? we have heard 70 times about the three eras -- so many times about the three arrows. larry: not high hopes. the big one, raising productivity growth, increasing inward immigration, are not likely to be addressed through any measures, at least not in concrete terms, and from that perspective, i think we have to understand it is politically difficult to tackle those sorts of issues. raising the female participation rate above the age of 30 in japan would be a big boost to labor supply. for that, you need some kind of improvement in the structure of caregiving for younger mothers. that just seems to be something that is very elusive in japan. productivity, that remains elusive pretty much everywhere in the world, and i can't imagine there are any magic wands japan could wave to

improve its productivity growth. us.s: larry, stay with we have a little bit more to get through, gam chief economist. why theon "countdown," ecb may need to step in if britain votes to leave the eu. we are live to berlin next. ♪

anna: welcome back. 1:45 in the morning in new york. 6:45 here in london. let's go to mumbai, because india's central bank governor is stepping down. will be returning to academia when his term ends at the central bank on september 4. let's get more with our guest in mumbai. why is his exit such a big

issue, as we are seeing demonstrated in indian markets this morning? thank you. going back to 2013, that was a time rajan joined the indian central bank within days of the indian currency falling to a record low. rajan is credited with bringing some sanity to the indian markets and also lifting its credibility for investors. isng his achievements cutting the volatility in the to 7% as high -- from as high as 22%. he was also instrumental in getting the government to agree on an inflation target. that's the first of the government agreed to an inflation target, and of course, he has helped to bring down inflation and contributed to growth. there is reason that they are concerned about what sort of an impact will play out from his

departure. thank you very much. let's bring in larry hathaway into the conversation. the got wcrs, performance of the rupee. this is the third worst-performing currency. departure, how much more pressure and credibility does it put on the indian central bank and modi? >> i think your observation is really telling. it's a story of several emerging economies, india being one, mexico being another, and toeria being the third, that one extent or another were darlings for international investors. india and mexico were supposed to lead the way on reform, and they adopted very orthodox policies, also with monetary policy. that is where the money went in part because it was fearful of

other places, brazil, russia, and china. we are seeing an unwinding. rajan's departure is going to make things even worse in the sense that it is pretty clear his departure is linked to an attempt by the government to install a more growth-friendly governor to had the central bank, but that is simply going to reduce some of the currency volatility mentioned before and potentially a relaxation of the inflation target. my sense is the currency is going to be on its back foot until there is some resolution of matters, and probably the appointment of a central bank governor who is credible. anna: is india les moonvesa -- less investable? larry: i think it is, but it was sort of headed that way. we remember the pictures from several years back when the indian dias brough up at this

government and the policymaking diaspora thought this government and the policymaking team would do for india what china did in the 1970's. unfortunately, it doesn't look that way. india is difficult to change and reform. this is probably one more manifestation. thanks very much for spending the last 45 minutes or so with us, larry hathaway. let's move back to the broader european agenda. the leader of the dutch anti-eu freedom party has told bloomberg that a vote for britain to quit the eu would trigger positive change across the region. >> i certainly hope it will happen because it would be an enormous result for both britain and all the other people in the european union that want to andin national sovereignty believe the end of this european

project is coming closer everyday. it will be good for britain, and it will be good for the rest of europe, if the british people will decide for brexit. anna: our next guest warns a vote in favor of brexit would trigger market turmoil that would force the european central bank to take action. europeansident of the management. he joins us now from berlin. great to have you on the program. we heard about some positives that could result, in his view, from a decision by the u.k. to do a brexit. could you see any positive for the german economy if the u.k. did leave, any benefits that could be fashioned out, maybe a block that is more formed around the euro? >> i have to completely disagree with what her wilder said.

the disadvantages for the german economy and many economies, and in particular for the british economy, are strong. they are strong for a number of reasons. it first has to do with trade, trade barriers that have been moved away by the european union. it has to do with financial flows, financial markets. markets are getting more and more connected, and now we are seeing major turmoil if brexit would happen. there will also be a long period of uncertainty as it takes time to work out the details of the brexit negotiations. i cannot see any advantage at all. manus: i caught up with the president of the european union, and he made it very clear that if we wake up on the 24th and our country has decided to take us out of the eu, the europeans will make it very difficult, germans included, for the u.k.

to agree to terms of trade. that can't be good for anybody at any level. do you get that feeling that that is raison d'etre? it is certainly a very important decision and negotiation that will be coming up. i believe what the german -- the minister said main reason being, if britain should leave and the negotiations were regarded to be lenient, it would trigger parties and other countries to do the same. one would have rather favorable conditions. therefore, this wilbe the guiding force. the only question left and remaining, what would happen on the day of the 24th or even earlier? there will be major turmoil in financial markets.

how strongly could the government or european union react if indeed there was turmoil, and this remains to be seen. anna: what advice are you giving the german finance ministry with that in mind? how is the german finance ministry going to prepare? >> the german finance ministry said very clearly it is going to prepare, and this is a wise decision to be prepared for such an outcome. obviously, still hoping for the outcome not to occur, but also to reinforce, if it should a core -- occur, that the european project is still intact. no matter how the referendum will turn out, there needs to be a new discussion on the future of europe, how european integration should move forward, and just to see how this all could materialize. manus: it's interesting.

you touch on many of the biggest issues at play in the debate in the united kingdom, the emotive issues of federalism. you talk about preparedness for volatility. what i have for our viewers is liquidity that has been pumped into the system in europe. funds are at a record, more than 800 billion euros out there in terms of liquidity. the ecb and central banks around the world, how would you guide them to react on friday morning if we wake up and it is a brexit situation or, indeed, a very close call? this is the worst fate of all for global markets. that could invoke just as much of volatility as indeed an out right decision. >> i agree. it's important to have a very close look at the central banks. brexit onhould be a obviously, german and

european politicians would not have the speed and the decisiveness on that day to react very fast and swiftly. this means it needs another actor who could step in and battle the turmoil. in my view, the only agent we could see or actor we could see are the central banks, and most likely, the european central bank. therefore, it is about the central banks. it's about the european central bank to be prepared in the most -- in the best possible way for whatever may happen on the 24th. anna: if we do see a vote for brexit, people start to ask questions about whether other will try to hold their own referendums. where would you expect to see stress coming through next? two sources for

potential stress. the first stress might be the question of how cohesive is the euro area in particular. we saw in 2012 the spreads between the german sovereign bonds and sovereign bonds in the peripheral countries. this is something that in my view could happen again. there is a substantial risk for that. the other thing is, there might be countries that the long to the core of the euro and the european union. i'm thinking, for example, of the netherlands who have close links to britain who may consider wide to stay in the european union. we have seen the rise of radical parties and quite a number of european countries that could come to this conclusion. is thely, one side peripheral countries in trouble, and the other is the core. the restt's see what

of the wii colts for us for volatility and risk. thank you very much for joining us on "countdown." up next, it is sterling. the pound is making a comeback. 1.4566. the pound and brexit, we debate. ♪

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boost.anti-brexit the #urges as polls remain back in the lead, asian stocks rally. what's left on the block. tosident putin is setting sell to china and india. quitting the rupee, indian bonds dropped. decisional bank policy . hen his term ends in december. good morning, welcome to countdown. anna: i'm anna edwards in

london. we are going to start the on my screen, a look at how positive they will be -- looks like we will see a bit of a balance, no surprise if you have an following the asian session. 3.36%tocks called up by and if you bring of the risk radar you can see where they are on the other asset classes as absolutely, and it's all through the prism of currency. you have dollar sterling rallying briskly, renaissance reprieve. a new poll put the remained camped at 45% and volatility is has because the odds check flipped around from being 40% for brexit to 30% -- how do you look at dollar sterling?

this is where the money really flowed into yen. you are seeing sterling rally again against the yen, clawing back some of its losses. but of course it is dollar rupee where we are seeing most of the pressure in terms of the politics, which is the health of emerging-market currencies. 67.42. the question is between now and thursday, a great deal can happen. anna: it's a very long time.

+++ drawing a line under certain trends -- we have seen money going into the yen, into fixed income markets, and that we don't. treasuries decreasing the most in a month and we have golden there as well, down by 1.2% and nymex at 48, 43. dollar retreat is partly to blame as well as the developments in canada. let's check out the bond markets, we have a two year yield on that board and we may have bond markets for you. we have seen a flight to the safety of bond markets ended the question is that guilt still represents a flight to safety. in the first word with haidi lun. haidi: thanks. the eu referendum campaign has resumed after it suspended in the wake of the killing of the labor mp. new polls show remain with a slightly. prime minister david cameron laid out his argument for taking eu.the yea >> if we do leave, that's it. we are walking out the door, we are quitting, we are giving up

on this organization, which even if we leave, will have a huge effect on our lives, on our children, on our opportunities, on our businesses. i don't think britain in the end is a quitter. haidi: the leading print brexit that they would be better off outside the single market. >> we should not be governed by the rules that the european court imposes on us. haidi: italy's anti-establishment movement is posted to win elections in rome, threatening to derail the reform agenda. it would give the italian capital its first female mayor, a 37-year-old lawyer. putin isour

considering selling states in the russian oil company to china and india as he struggles to hit spending targets ahead of the next election. this is according to two people familiar with the matter. wants to sell a 20% stake, which would not only cover budget shortfalls, but also strengthened ties with asia. rupee has made the steepest decline since november after the central bank governor said he will be stepping down. he said on saturday he will be leaving when the term expires in september and returns to academia. nigeria will drop after more than a year of resistance, finally giving in to the pressures that have battered its economy and choked the nation of foreign currency. demand mayy pent-up push it at least 20% weaker. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus

around the world. it have find more stories on the bloomberg at top . anna: thank you. haidi lun in hong kong. we have had some developments around the russian oil story. a bit of an update -- vladimir putin is to visit china on june 26, this coming weekend. this is presumably related to the story earlier, considering selling parts of the corporate crown jewel to the chinese and indians considering selling parts of the $11 billion stake. let's check in on the live market action in asia. juliette saly is standing by. juliette: we have had quite a lot of volatility in asian markets as we wait for brexit vote, but today there's a lot more calm.

2.3%,kkei 225 has gone up now it's best close in two months. a good solid game coming through. also the move out of safe haven assets, a big boost coming through, australian markets having its biggest gain since june and a similar story moving out of gold stocks but into the oil and mining players. elsewhere, it's pretty positive, the hang seng up in late trade, a lot of good movement coming andugh from the oil players also the bank is looking quite good as well. but i want to show you this widget we have seen on the market, which is underperforming the rest of the region, some pretty disappointing numbers coming through out of china today, showing that chinese home

prices rose in fewer cities in may than they did in april, and we have seen a little bit of nervousness coming through, consumer services really leading the declined by 7/10 of 1%. the other big story of the day is the news of the weekend that r.b.i. governor will step down when his term ends in september. we have seen quite significant selling pressure coming room for the indian rupee and the dollar is up by about one half of 1% despite a bit fof a wobble. the aussie dollar looking quite 74.41 and a little bit of relief for those in the japanese yen that have been strengthening so much, down 4/10 of 1%.

indexgional benchmark actually had its biggest gain in three weeks today. --an: would manus: will it last? you can go to the bloomberg to get it all. we'll speak later on. let's talk about investors, preparing for a potential brexit scenario. sticking to bloomberg, italy's finance minister weighed in on the potential. >> central banks are in charge of dealing with financial markets and financial instability. governments have the right and the duty to think ahead about the future evolution of the european union in those two scenarios, weather with or without the u.k. on board. economy is subject to brexit risk much in the same

way as the other members of the union are. there is no specific italian problem. anna: joining us now is the chairman of london first. great to have you. plenty of insight in terms of the u.k. story for us this morning. good to see you. --e us your overall thoughts the brexit question. you have been campaigning to keep the u.k. in. >> yes. we see this as an incredibly important decision, the most important the electorate has had to make since the last referendum. we obviously hope they vote in the right direction because if we go out it will not only has economic implications but also political implications -- do we want to be great britain where do we want to be little england? that is the choice facing the

electorate. manus: a very good morning to you, sir. the front page -- this roller coaster. i want to get a question. we go to the polls on friday and the concern for the people i talk to is that the very worst outcome is that we vote to remain, but it is so close it leaves an open-ended can of risk. is that a fair assessment from the boardroom? >> absolutely not. a narrow vote to remain would not be as good as a clear majority to remain, but honestly, both would be better than a catastrophic vote to leave the eu. anna: the other side of the argument -- we saw it over the , other business leaders talking about how they wanted to be freed from the straitjacket eu regulation, that europe lacks

energycy, that it is sapping for business, yet you have a completely opposite you for small business -- why are you on such different pages? why are there two narratives around smaller business in the eu? a lot of small company members -- they in areas like technology, the media, they benefit from access to the european market. the logic can be of the brexit campaign is that they can make their minds up whether they want to leave the eu but remain in the single market, in which case we will be subject to all the rules and regulations but without having a vote or whether they want us to be completely outside the single market in which case we will have much less access to european markets. wea: many have said that

will pay wto type tariffs on trade. >> and that will have a negative influence on exports, on investment decisions. i don't believe it will happen in the cataclysmic way, but slowly and progressively, there will be less investment, certainly in manufacturing. there will be disinvestment in the financial services sector. what that means in reality is that london in the u.k. will lose jobs, our economy will grow less fast, real wages will be less good than it would have been. this is not an abstract concept, this has real meaning for real people. manus: john, i'm about to get on a plane on thursday and i will fly home to london. i will be putting it taken the ballot box -- that is why i am flying back. tell you this, -- tell me this. what are the advantages, the

potential advantages, a bus leaving europe? what should i think about as i go into the ballot box? what could be happening better for business if we did leave europe questio? >> i am probably the wrong person to ask that question -- i can't find any good reasons. i think we would be condemning ourselves to a less certain and less positive economic future, to less influence in the world, because of not being part of the largest economic bloc in the world. i struggle to see any good reasons -- i'm not sure it will make any difference at all to immigration, but whether you believe it does or not depends on which spokesman you listen to. i struggle to think of a single good reason why anyone should vote to leave the eu. manus: hold that thought. you will remain with anna and i. why does president

putin thinking about an $11 billion stake sale of the oil giant? ♪

anna: welcome back. a bit of the gloomy start your monday morning but that might have been a case for the european equity markets which are expecting a strong trading day. juliette saly has the bloomberg business. juliette: u.k. house prices have continued to climb, with only the capital experiencing a decline ahead of the referendum on eu membership. the cost of property in london went up last month. a property website operator also said that london is the most vulnerable to a brexit. suisse says it has placed

five employees on leave while conduct an internal investigation. they worked on ipos for tech companies in israel for the there is a link to possible breaches that the bank declined to comment on the on saying that the staff of the placed on leave. lebron james is celebrating his most improbable feat today -- the cleveland cavaliers have become the first team to recover from 3-1 down in the nba. the cavaliers got their first championship 93-89. walt disney's long-awaited sequel has set a record for an animated movie. it made $136 million in the u.s. and canada, topping the box office this weekend. that's your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much. juliette saly with the latest.

vladimir putin is said to be considering selling part of its oil company to china/ this comes as the president is struggling to beat spending commitments before his possible reelection bid. our reporter joins us from moscow -- good morning. russia is planning to sell the crime jewels --] >> hello from moscow. right. what's happening is that russia is in the middle of the strongest recession from since the time clinton first came to power. they only expect the budget deficit to widen while the creditors make efforts to keep it at 2% of gdp and the risk will be visibly wider. privatization is one of the ways

for the kremlin to at least narrow the gap and while there is speculation about different investors looking for a stake, russia favors china and india that may put their money into the company. anna: thank you very much for the update. john allen is still with us in the studio, chairman of tesco. you have been involved in many businesses over the years and some of them have had a real european footprint just in terms of logistics. you must have some experience in brussels. given serious thoughts on how much -- how much does this tell us about the reality >? >> there are myths that you can

only sell bananas and bunches of three, which anyone who shops and supermarkets knows is nonsense. i think brussels has gotten more sensible, more modest. i think the u.k. has played an important part of, but not just the u.k.. stayingting thing about is that this is an institution in need of reform, but there is a growing consensus among many governments in europe about the need to reform. if we stay we could play an important role in continuing the process of reform. it's a long way from perfect but it's better than it was and it has certainly helped been beneficial to u.k. business. the phrase heefraying yo used -- being part of the reform agenda. we will have a very much weakened and fractional as government, won't we? we won't have a strong government ready to push for more change. at the end of this -- that's my interpretation. >> you may or may not be right.

i am not going to take a position because i'm not an expert on u.k. domestic politics, but i hope things will settle down after the start of the referendum, and that we will see some return to normal politics. and if we do, it is vitalizing that the u.k. takes an active and positive role in pushing the case for reform within your. -- within your. europe. anna: in terms of things you don't want to see, where the u.k. economy is right now, what are your fears on how it could react if it voted for a brexit? you operate across the sectors/ i think there may be spectacular exit financial markets, but i think they are much less important in and the long-term impact of less investment, fewer jobs, horror

real wages. it's not going to happen after the referendum, but what the u.k. economy is going to be like in three years, five years, 10 years, and it is undoubtedly going to be weaker and worse. manus: john, take us three years forward. let's say we vote to stay in the eu. play at government in the moment -- as a chairman of london first, one of the most important things to get our growth rate in the u.k. up and running? >> well,, i think if we do vote but as vital as that we do negotiate the very best possible arrangement we can, ideally continued membership of the single market with our european partners. but completely unnecessary if it happens, i think we really cannot afford to become the fortress.

we have to continue to connect with our most important trading partners, and that's in their interest and in our interest, but i don't think it will be a particularly easy negotiation. anna: if we do want to stay, what should be the focus? global businesses want to get change,hings like because there has been a lot of focus. bei think the need to reforming a number of eu institutions -- we move toward a less interventionist eu unless it is necessary, but i can't tell you that the eu plays a positive role. some difficult and quite nationalistic governments at the moment who would like to do things that would be not in the interest of u.k. companies. the eu has been very effective in preventing them from doing the more extreme things.

it's influences or sometimes positive, sometimes the relevant, occasionally unhelpful. anna: great to see, thank you very much for sharing your insight. john allan. manus, that brings us to the end of "countdown," but let's have a look at where markets are. european equity markets are stronger. manus: we are looking for a brisk trade in the equity market. a nice turnaround in terms of sterling. this is all based on the campaign restarting, the turnaround in the polls. back into sterling the indianse minister resigning. anna: treasury markets less popular than they were of last last week.

a very different picture -- how long will it last? "countdown."it for ♪

guy: welcome to "on the move." 7:30 london, counting you down to the european open. i'm alongside carline hide, and here is what we are watching. remaining reclaims the lead. sterling soars, the futures point to a sharp bounce, britain braces for a most volatile week. --itioning ahead of thursday how does a billionaire trade for brexit? and rajan roils the