tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg June 21, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
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>> u.s. stocks closing higher this afternoon. the pound at its higher level since january. >> janet yellen give their first of two date -- >> two days away from a u.k. referendum on eu membership, please be to economist and author george magnus on what a brexit could do to the pound. and experimental zika vaccine will soon begin testing on humans. will speak to the pharmaceutical companies this hour about the vaccine. >> we begin with our market minutes. but it was not with a lot of conviction. we could have seen some back-and-forth trading. nevertheless, when you look at where the index is ended, the
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s&p at its best level since june 10 with six out of 10 major groups higher. >> nothing to dramatic in one direction or another. there were some polls that were mixed on the brexit question and that was all people focus on. look at the s&p and its average highlights where the markets are right now. it is really hugging that medium-term trend line. that warned trend, it is not really going anywhere above or below. no one seems to want to take on big positions. in terms of big movers today, you can highlight the s&p energy shares, seeing the longest rally in two months. it is the third straight game for these guys. this is significant. it signifies a touch of a risk on rally but still up about 1%. taking a quick look at u.s. government bonds, we saw yields rise a tiny amount. kind ofishing close but the same story as with equity.
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a little bit of a drift higher but nothing dramatic. this holding pattern continues. >> holding pattern is a great way to describe it. brexit fears dominate but there was a notable move in the euro. reaffirming his willingness to perhaps anti-stimulus. he said inflation dynamics remain subdued even as the economic recovery gains momentum. we saw the euro you racing its gains right around when he spoke and ending the day lower. further stimulus is the pipeline. >> the story i really love is corn get taken out to the woodshed, phone the most since 2013. you have some rain going on and the midwest. but gold was also off by almost 2%. $24, which was interesting to me. the testimony to the senate was construed as a subtle shift from last week into more dovish camp, gold would have been higher.
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oil off by about 1%. right around that $50 a barrel level. >> nellis take a deep dive into the bloomberg. me is biggest question to what happened monday morning not only what happened to the pound but what happened to the euro dollar? they highlighted what happened to the euro dollar during the brexit fear crisis and they charted a few big events to have watched. referendumed for a and 11:00 p.m. on friday night immediately you saw a euro rally the next day. the euro sold off a bit, but then rally. their point is you may see some short-term weakness in the euro but you could see some kind of pop out of that longer-term there's the more bearish but it is not a given that the euro is all of a sudden want to sell. >> markets acted we're way
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sometimes. i want to take a look at the new bloomberg pound index. it is just the pound against its various trading partners. we talk about pound dollar or pound frank. brown -- broad index. we are well off the lows from june. the close of the highest level since the referendum date was specified. we're not quite there on the trade weighted inversion. it is yet another way of talking about the only story that matters. to take a little bit of a detour from the only store the matters and give you a sneak preview for what we might see when the banks begin reporting the results. it is not too early to look ahead. we have an early rain -- read from jeffries. fixed income rose for the first
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time in two years. that was equal to about a 55% increase. overall trading increased rose about 21%. income dropped about 10% in the. . -- in the period. we look at this for a precursor on how the big banks will do. kicks off the banks reporting season on july 14 so market under counters. >> will do. all anyone wants to know is what is going to happen over the next 48 hours in what will happen on friday. are going to get a lot of volatility either way with the result we get on thursday night. you have seen the markets rally strongly the last few days based on the polls. the analysis we are looking at says this is not an ice age, this is still 50-50.
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if you get an exit boat, expect to see a lot of volatility. we expect to see a significant decline. significant declines in domestic u.k. assess, specifically smaller midcap equities. but the volatility will extend to broader assets and global assets. i would think you'll see it flow into safe havens in the event of an exit, back into treasuries. back into gold. $1400 gold in the event of a brexit. amid all this you had janet yellen testifying before the senate today. here is what she said to the senators. >> proceeding cautiously and raising the federal funds rate will allow us to keep the monetary policy support to whileic growth in place we assess whether growth is
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returning to a moderate base, whether the labor market will strengthen further, or whether inflation will make progress towards our 2% objective. >> whether inflation will make its progress -- that is the key word. a do you see them and being helpful purge or are the fed too inclined to like? -- to hike? >> i think the lack of clarity has created some confusion. clearly you have taken an immediate rate hike off the table. part of that must be to do with the brexit concerns. rate hikes are still very much on the agenda. we still expect to see some normalization. i think the key for the market is to get through. if we are going to see the markets move higher, we essentially need to see investor concerns the client. that starts with brexit. then people are going to focus quickly on the fed.
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we have heard a more cautious tone today. there ultimately supported. andonably robust, the u.s. particular -- in particular. >> obviously a lot of volatility around the brexit boat. -- vote. we have seen such huge fund flows out of your compared to emerging markets in the u.k., down by about 4%. they say if we do see a remain vote, they will see something illion rushing back in. oute saw $1 billion come last week. we have seen huge outflows. if you look at the risk premium on european equities, on u.k. equities, very high right now, particularly compared to the u.s. market. we are seeing clients sitting on
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large amounts of cash, $10 trillion globally with negative interest rate. if you get a remain vote, -- i think you're right, the assets with high premiums attached to them will be the assets that benefit. some people have talked about this being asymmetric, i disagree. some assets are going to catch a very big bid. >> does that include emerging markets? >> i think it does. in the event of a remain vote and take some risk off the table. on the back of concerns about brexit, i think you see mining coming out of safe haven assets such as the dollar. i think that will benefit emerging markets. investors will start to focus on the fundamentals. >> i want to go back to the u.s. because from your perspective the data has been decent.
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talkingtill your people about recession size and it feels like there is a lot of anxiety. do you see a gap between what the hard data is saying and the way people perceive the economy and way people perceive the economy? >> it is continuing to track stable, slow growth come around 2%. it is the slow pace of growth which has graded that anxiety. -- created that anxiety. it is a normal economic expansion. but it has been very robust. u.s. economists continue to plow along delivering this 2% number. the data right now shows no signs that is slowing materially at all. in fact, we see no signs the u.s. economy is seeing a threat of recession in the nurture. -- near-term. they usually die because of policy mistakes, they die because of external shock.
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we have not seen one of those events yet. itt we are seeing those us is a long, albeit slow growth cycle. it does have the potential to upset expectations, whether it is fear of recession, fear of deflation. >> she was saying you have a decession, you have the fe raising rates, we are not there. >> that's right. people look at the ad raising rates and they -- the fed raising rates. you have seen that reverse partially. another indicator going is perhaps recession is not as near as people have said. >> it is going to be a very exciting 48 hours. >> coming up. we speak with george magnus. ♪
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♪ hillary clinton clinton's is a donald trump presidency and push the united states economy back into recession. speaking in ohio, the likely democratic presidential nominee portrayed her likely republican as you radekdek -- and unfit for office. she also criticizes business record saying it is evidence of how he would treat working families and small businesses. mrs. clinton leads mr. trump in the critical swing state of florida. clinton tops trump what he 7% to 39%. 49%.% to
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40%.io, they are tied at and as obeying you mrs. clinton holds a slight lead. polls are also by quinnipiac. the path forward cannot continue while hostilities are escalating and civilians are starving. because the cease-fire is ,argely being ignored, a convoy the window of opportunity to reach a political solution is closing quickly. met today with several diplomats who want the obama administration to expand its military role in syria. secretary kerry met for about 30 minutes with 10 of the 51
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diplomats signed a memo urging the u.s. to use more military force. it is unclear if kerry plans to incorporate the dissenting views into his own policy recommendations to the administration. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. backfield. -- back to you. results coming in. topping the estimate by two pennies. 2.8lysts looking for $1 billion. for the full year it is looking for adjusted earnings of 1175 to line with whatn analysts were looking for.
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1196. but fedex ad caveats. --cannot forecast you can see virtually no change in after-hours trading. >> fedex says it assumes continued economic growth. fedex coming out with those results. adobe also coming up with results in which the second quarter topped estimates matches the estimates. seeing a lot of movement in the gobi shares. it is moving very actively. down 5%. >> good a 20% the violation of the pound actually be a good thing? back, it fell 20% between 1992 and 1996 and it
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helped bring the u.k. out of a ignite twond helped decades a strong global trade. could a brexit be a 1992 scenario all over again? joining us is george magnus, and economic advisor at ubs. great to see you. could w b 1992 redux -- now be 1992 redux? >> no. they are trying to remind us that there is nothing wrong with depreciation of the pound, we have done it before and made good. i think this time it really is different. then, the pound was horribly overvalued, interest rates had to be raised to 40% to defend it. suddenly it was like a dam broke, the pound to last, world growth was pretty strong. we were on the cutting edge of the information technology boom. things are very different this
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time around, both of the united kingdom and european economy. a long way after a possible vote to leave. this is a sign of basically confidence evaporated. that time saying at in the early 1990's, there was all this growth ahead of it, the pound was overvalued. what are some of the conditions right now in u.k. that would make a boat to leave any possible pound collapse much more damaging? -- therest important are a number of important things. first of all, we do not have concrete proof that the weakening of the british economy in recent months is entirely due to fears about a brexit. but lending and spending numbers have not been good, so it is kind of indicative that people are holding back and actually the uncertainty that will be
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unleashed by a boat to leave in terms of what happens to the economy and the constitution and politics, i think it would exacerbate that. the other think that is important is this country has year, wee turn of the have an external deficit at about 7% of gdp, more than twice the size of the united states. verynd that deficit we are dependent on capital inflows into the banking system and fdi. leave would compromise both of those channels of capital inflow them up which means we could have a good if-fashioned sterling crisis confidence evaporated in the way i fear it might. >> what i love about the debate is that he wrote there was a lot of risks and he was the one who broke the pound in 1992. he said to me people believe the eu will have no affect on her personal position, it is no --
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it is wishful thinking. it will have one very clear effect. the value of the pound would decline precipitously. much, can you quantify that? bit of ait is a shooting gallery. --this isi have little more than plucking numbers out of midair. we will not see a gentle slide in the pound, that is not going to happen. what will happen is that i would imagine there will be a selling of pound sterling, particularly against the u.s. dollar but also the euro. i suggest that could go down 25%. george's view has been
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slightly overtaken by latest opinion polls. it suggests a significant increase in the proportion of people who believe a vote to leave would be better for the u.k. economy and more people now believe it would affect them personally. a very small proportion of people thought they would be affected personally but the closer we get to the boat onto -- vote on thursday, that seems to be shifting. >> we're going to continue this discussion on brexit. ♪
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independent economic advisor. i want to bring in a quote from the telegraph. i urge nobody to follow my example. let a youth decide, it is they who must live with the consequences. i think it is interesting because we see this generational split in the polls with the older generation is much more inclined to leave, the younger people will have to ultimately live with the consequences, they are more inclined to stay. what do you make of that generational divide? >> the demographic is really curious. fromis quite different national elections that we have had before where there are all sorts of peculiarities about voting regions and political party standings.
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this is a binary outcome and it seems to have split in exactly that way. 35, there under 30, majority of people of that age group will be remainders and if you are over 50, 55, a majority will be to quit. demographic and a lot of the young people obviously do not know anything different from europe because they were born into the european union and that is all they know. are veryolder people amenable to the kind of nostalgia and, britain can be great again, if we could only be soe we were 50 years ago -- i think that is how it plays. ultimately.k. does pope to stay in the eu, are the things the government should do to take more seriously the anxiety of those who want to leave? >> tough question.
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the reason is a tough question is because if there are a couple of things we have learned and are actually positive about a referendum that most people are sick and tired of the campaign right now. be moreat we need to sensitive to the issue of immigration because it is quite clear that has become the defining issue in the campaign, in many ways the referendum is -- it is referendum about immigration. communities have changed and lots of people have left and new people have come in, people do have concerns about pressure of public resources. it is a resource for her majesty's government, it is not about the eu at all but is -- that theout future government needs to take extremely seriously. >> thank you very much, good to see you. first up, the
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mark: i'm mark crumpton. let's get to first word news. the clinton foundation is among the organizations suspected to be breached by russian computer hackers, when two people familiar with the matter. the attacks on the foundation network as well as those of the democratic party and hillary clinton's presidential campaign renewed concerns about her digital security. the breach was first identified by government investigators as recently as last week. a spokesman for the foundation says he was not aware of any breach. u.s. treasury secretary jack lew says puerto rico's fiscal chaos is "a crisis of the moment," and
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that the u.s. senate needs to act before july 1. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says the chamber will take up a bill before that date and hopes to produce legislation for president obama to sign. the commission could establish an oversight board that would restructure puerto rico's $70 billion debt. u.s. secretary of state john kerry met today with several diplomats who want the obama administration to expand its military role in syria. kerry met for about 30 minutes with 10 of the diplomats who signed a memo urging the u.s. to use more military force. plans tolear if kerry incorporate dissenting views into his own policy recommendations to the administration. the american bar association says supreme court nominee merrick garland is " well-qualified for the nation's highest court." judge garland also earned the highest possible rating from the group's federal committee could senior member of the senate judiciary committee, vermont
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democrat patrick leahy, says the aba rating means republicans have run out of excuses and should "end their harmful obstruction." more than 85% of fema could spur u.s. marine combat jobs have nailed to pass the fitness test. that is according to a report from the associated press. 85.7% of the women have flunked such tests as lips, ammunition, and, maneuvers. -- as pull-ups, ammunition, and combat maneuvers. it forces recruits you who fall into other less physically demanding marine jobs. the pentagon open combat jobs to win in six months ago. -- two women six months ago. i am a mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. joe, alix, scarlet, back to you. scarlet: thank you so much, mark.
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let's get the after-hours earnings we got it hewlett-packard raising its forecast come up with earnings topping analyst estimates. the dow jones industrial average gained 20 points in fairly narrow trading. adobe missing analyst forecasts with revenue forecasts. that stock is down about 4.5 percent right now. 1.7% fromining by even as the proper forecast came above some analyst estimates. still trying to figure that one out but fedex down for the moment. what you miss? the clock is ticking for thursday's brexit vote and the latest polls show the outcome is too close to call. let's check on the weather, because that factors in as well. tr function onwe the bloomberg terminal and we're looking at the 23rd, 65.7 degrees fahrenheit. that is the current forecast right now. the humidity will be 76.4%.
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there you go. summer in the u.k. what more can you expect? here to talk about what you can andct is george pearkes jacob meisel. what is the weather looking like for the thursday vote? jacob: in the southeastern part of england we are seeing enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. we don't know how strong the showers and storms are going to be good that is something the forecasting models can really nailed down. is an enhancede chance primarily later in the day on thursday. joe: we know that old people are more likely to vote out and young people are more likely to vote remained. who shows up less in bad weather? george: i think we are more likely for young people to stay home in the case of bad weather. alix: really?
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young, spry 20-year-olds? george: there was a huge jump in registration for the referendum and young people are much less likely to vote in general and are less animated. remain cap has a less rocket space than the leave camp just less raucous base -- the remain camp has a less raucous base than the leave camp. they are much less likely to vote, all else equal. alix: what is the history between the weather and referendum? jacob: it depends on the country. there is no correlation we found in britain. in the united states for every inch of rain that falls there is 1% less turnout. it was heavy rain in florida today of the -- the day of the 2000 election.
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in sweden, there was no correlation but that election was held on a sunday. people are more willing to find the time to vote regardless. because the brexit vote is on thursday there are increased odds that the weather will play some impact. scarlet: that is remarkable. alix: george, what about undecideds? george: just to be clear, we are really talking at the margins. this is not likely to be the deciding factor in the election. joe: what every vote is going to count, right? a lot of money on pound options -- [laughter] george: every vote is going to count. you are talking so many different variables. like you said, old people you would think would be more likely to remain unknown, or s young, spry folks would get to the polls easily -- more likely to remain at home, whereas young, spry folks would get to the polls easily. it is really have to say. is iflance of the risk weather is bad, it is going to
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be slightly worse for the remain camp because of the geography and demography of the vote. how much worse is a really open question. scarlet: jacob, could you be more specific with the weather forecast? jacob: london and far southeastern england are the only regions where we really think we will see enough rain that could tamper turnout. there can be scattered showers in other parts of the united kingdom. nowhere else we see anything that would depress turnout the way we are seeing it right there in london and the surrounding suburbs. joe: let's move to more traditional market questions. george, what are you looking at in the market in the run up to this vote specifically? cable, pound-dollar, however you want to refer to it, it has had a massive run-up over the last week because we have seen this wave of polls showing undecideds rising and more parity between remain and leave.
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but that probably means is a higher likelihood of remain taking it. there is a history of establishment in these referendum-typos -- referendum-type votes of the status quo option seeing a big jump at the ballot box versus what the polls were saying days before. that is priced in with the equity market, fx market from interest rate markets, and the betting market as well. alix: you want to hedge some kind of risk just in case. what is the best way that doesn't have to do with the pound? george: probably just being short european equities. the stoxx 600 and the s&p 500 have been highly correlated to the pound sterling over the past week or so -- actually, probably three months is a fair way to put it, with increasing correlation overtime. the european equity market will ta and youher beg are getting into a euro short there as well. the road should underperform versus the dollar.
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joe: i've seen some stuff about concerns of liquidity friday morning. a lot of people pulling back and not wanting to commit ahead of this. any thoughts on how that might affect markets in the wake of the vote? george: when you look at recent liquidity-type events in the united states financial markets and around the world, the times the liquidity bugs to the market is when people are least expecting it. no one was expecting for china to have the move in august 2015. nobody was expecting the flash crash in the u.s. stock market in spring of 2010, the flash rally we had recently. that's what activity does not show up when people are looking for it. the one thing you are seeing about liquidity in fx, rates markets, is that people are really, really, really aware of this event. everyone knows brexit, the vote is thursday. it is going to be close. what the downside risk is. when that tends to happen, you
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tend to see different liquidity conditions than it nobody knows the binary risk is coming and it hits and nobody's prepared for it. guys.great perspective, thank you so much. guys, watch the weather can watch the weather all day thursday. scarlet: coming up, the first experimental zika vaccine is ready for human trial. could this be the answer to combating the disease that is considered a global threat? ♪
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and dissipated moderate economic growth supports shipping event. it is compared with the consensus estimate of $11 by six and spread shares of the world's biggest cargo airline down in after-hours trading. alix: a sign of slowing momentum for the adobe systems cloud-based products. forecastings revenue that may miss analyst estimates. falling in extended trading. reaches instagram a milestone cannot pass a half-million users. passing half-million users. 100 million users current quicker and daily active users averaged 300 million, double snapchat and twitter. alix: what'd you miss? the first experimental zika
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vaccine has gotten a green light from the fda to start human testing. hascompany behind the drug shares benefiting from the news. kim, how long until we get a vaccine to market? joseph: it could take a few years but we are moving as fast as we can. we just go to work on designing the vaccine late last year and got into animal testing early this year and within six months we are able to get the fda approval to start human testing faster than anyone else out there big and small. joe: how big of a potential market is this? joseph: you know, the numbers are growing. we expect infections to spread call throughout latin america, and already in puerto rico the cbc is expecting 25 per -- the cdc is expecting 25% of the population to be infected by this year.
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southwest, southeast united t.ates is very humid and we i can see texas, florida, and other parts of the country having zika from the mosquito soon. scarlet: there are clearly benefits of being a first mover in this space but what are the risks? --eph: it is a pioneer but it is tough being a pioneer but inovio has game changing technology. transformative technology where we can just use dna rather than using any personal virus for the whole virus. alix: how does that work? virus: instead of using for the vaccine, which can potentially be harmful, we take the genetic code or dna of the particular part of the zika virus and put that into a and we injectdat that the subject and the person's own arm becomes the manufacturing plant for the
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vaccine. joe: you know, there has been a lot of criticism of washington for not having done more to address the zika virus, prepare for it. do you think the u.s. government could play a bigger role here in terms of bringing -- developing research and getting the country prepared? always well, we could play monday morning quarterback, but i think the administration and congress will make additional resources available soon and companies and the lands around this country and around the world can mobilize together and marshall our resources to make the vaccine and advanced them. scarlet: joseph come i you have a phd in the field. dumb it down a little for us who are not in the field. what is the distinction with zika? how is it different from other epidemics and diseases like ebola, for instance? joseph: ebola kills very
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quickly. zika is interesting in that, in fact, at least most of the more or are unharmed less harmed, but it infects stem cells of babies and adults. it goes directly into the brain and nervous system. that is how you see such a disgusting birth defect, horrible birth defects. one of the reasons why inovio jumped into making a vaccine for this is i was personally moved, as a father of young kids, personally moved by the picture of microcephaly in these babies and the impact they have on their families. alix: the other argument to the zika vaccine is maybe it is not needed because it is happy death rate that, say, it does not have the death rate that -- it does not have the death rate that comes say, ebola does, and maybe we will build immunity. joseph: scientists are learning
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more and more about the impact of zika even in healthy adults. a syndrome that is a horrible temporary paralysis, almost like als in the patient, where your body can forget to breathe. alix: oh, well. joseph -- oh, wow. joseph: we are learning more about the impact of the virus on the brain cells. we want to stop it in its tracks using a vaccine. alix: joseph, thank you very much, good luck. joseph came, ceo of inovio. scarlet: we dig into the numbers in "the numbers don't lie." ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. what'd you miss? amazon's reach is cutting into bed bath & beyond business and investors are nervous. let's see what the numbers tell us in "the numbers don't lie." billion,eeding $12 that that the young is the largest retailer of home furnishings and domestic you see the but drop from double-digit percentages to single digits, closing religious at best. along with decelerating sales and margins have fallen as well, so it is moving in the wrong direction. last quarter it posted a sales gain of 1.7%. the orange line, still felt more than 100 basis points because of increased markdowns, couponing, and technology investments. the negative trends are expected to continue this year while free cash flow will be pressured by the rise in, which is seen right
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here as the retailers fight to remain competitive. apex is upst 80% -- c almost 80%. this is a snapshot of a cross-section of retailers and how digital sales have outpaced physical store sales. you can see the negative numbers in the stores column. even as e-commerce picks up momentum, morgan stanley estimates that retailers continue to grow their store based by 2% each year. bed bath & beyond is in that category with the store count topping 1500 in north america. we will watch all this and more from bed bath & beyond when they release earnings on wednesday. alix: what'd you miss? a major deal in china. a $.6 billion acquisition to buy a major stake in the major of of clans.h
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i want to bring in betty liu. what is supercell? can i was know what thinking the same thing, and this is where my mind goes in the middle of the afternoon. supercell,d the name i thought, isn't this the name of an '80s group? scarlet: soft cell. alix: dating yourself. you guys, maybe your children are way too young, but my kids at one point were addicted night and day to clash of clans. it is one of those games that a lot of kids play like minecraft. alix: gotcha. betty: $10 billion in valuation brought for the company. about half of the revenue comes from online gaming.
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it is hugely popular, not only here in the u.s. but obviously in china, where the company is based. this is a bigger for them and it is really the first time they have gone out and approached the international market. joe: one of the things people are talking about this year is the chinese outbound m&a, chinese corporates to provide international companies and already surpassing the 2015 total. this looks like a continuation of that trend. betty: it absolutely does. andee them playing hotels other real estate -- buying hotels and other real estate assets in the u.s., but here it is a little bit different where they are going out and buying the online gaming company. tencent, you may know their messaging app. scarlet: of course. did in asia. betty: it is big in asia, and if anybody whoyou meet is asian in the u.s. they are all on it.
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you can order food on it, you can heal your car on the l your car onaih this platform, and you can play games on it. the thinking is that tencent will leverage it and clash of clans and another called boomer bash or something like that. scarlet: monetization that u.s. committees can only dream of. betty: we know candy crushed and we just did not know much about the company. we have nottencent, heard that much about this company. we have been focused on alibaba. it is a huge company. they just happen to have been very focused in china domestically. point, this is one of several chinese companies that are looking to the outside. scarlet: betty liu, thank you so
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i am scarlet fu. what'd you miss? euro area consumer confidence antenna clock a.m. eastern time. yellen'snot miss janet second day of testimony in front of the house. we will have the whole thing for you live. joe: and u.s. economic data we did not have monday or today. home sales, 10:00 a.m. eastern time. scarlet: did you realize all three begin at 10:00 a.m.?
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john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to donald trump's ability as a salesman, you're not the only one second -- one that can sell a product. >> trump barware. i could go on and on. ♪ mark: good evening. after dismissing campaign manager karen lewandowski yesterday, today donald trump is preventing -- trump's strategy
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